The 2025 Replacement-Level Killers: Third Base

Today we turn our attention to some chilly performances at the hot corner. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

Cubs

The Cubs began the season with 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw — no. 13 on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list as a 55-FV prospect — as their starter at third base, but he struggled out of the gate, hitting just .172/.294/.241 (62 wRC+) from Opening Day through April 14 before being optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Jon Berti did the bulk of the work in his absence, with Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez and even Justin Turner spotting there as well before Shaw was recalled on May 19. The 23-year-old rookie got hot upon returning, but struggled in June before starting July in a 1-for-27 funk; he is now batting just .198/.276/.280 (61 wRC+) with two homers, 11 steals, and 0.0 WAR. While he’s underperformed relative to his expected stats (including a .350 xSLG), his 83.3-mph average exit velocity places him in the first percentile, and his 26.8% hard-hit rate in the fifth. Notably, he rode the pine in the days leading up to the All-Star break, making one start and two late-inning appearances over the Cubs’ last five games. Manager Craig Counsell called Shaw’s absence from the lineup “just a little breather here.”

The Cubs still believe Shaw is the long-term solution at third base, but he’s currently the weakest link in the lineup of a team whose NL Central lead has dwindled to one game ahead of the Brewers. An upgrade would make sense, particularly given that neither Berti (.219/.272/.240, 48 wRC+) nor Bruján (.184/.205/.263, 28 wRC+) has been any better than Shaw; both Workman and Lopez are now in other organizations, and the 40-year-old Turner hasn’t played even 60 innings in a season at third since 2022. Pending free agent Eugenio Suárez would be the top third baseman available if the Diamondbacks decide to put him on the market, and would be a better fit for the Cubs considering that alternatives such as the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon and the Pirates’ Ke’Bryan Hayes have multiple years of club control remaining. If the Cubs prioritize defense, the Orioles’ Ramón Urías is a strong defender who would cost a lot less.

Reds

The December 2023 addition of free agent Jeimer Candelario on a three-year, $45 million deal made little sense given the Reds’ glut of infielders, but injuries and Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension cleared a path for him nonetheless. He was lousy in 2024 (89 wRC+, -0.3 WAR) then even worse in ’25 (.113/.198/.213, 10 wRC+, -0.7 WAR in 91 plate appearances) before landing on the injured list with a lumbar sprain in late April. As soon as he was done with his rehab, he was designated for assignment and then released — at more or less the midpoint of his contract. He’s since signed a minor league deal with the Yankees; for what it’s worth, he has just a 64 wRC+ in 100 PA at Triple-A thus far, so it’s not like the Reds are missing out on a rebound.

Since Candelario’s injury, the bulk of the playing time at third base has gone to Santiago Espinal, but he’s struggled mightily (.246/.296/.293, 63 wRC+) and has barreled just two balls; somehow, his 0.9% barrel rate is still higher than six other players with at least 200 PA. Marte, who after a disastrous 2024 began the season at Triple-A Louisville, was recalled on April 9. While he played in just 19 games before losing two months to an oblique strain, he’s hit very well (.284/.337/.547, 138 wRC+) when available, though that snazzy batting line accounts for just 108 PA. If he can maintain anywhere near that level of performance — or even if he regresses toward his .257 xBA and .464 xSLG — Cincinnati’s problems here are solved. Things are rarely so neat, however, and while it’s worth keeping an eye on how well Futures Game participant Sal Stewart — who was ranked ninth with a 40+ FV on the team’s top prospects list in May — fares after being promoted from Double-A Chattanooga to Louisville, the Reds may still have to reach outside the organization to improve.

Yankees

Areas of need don’t get much more apparent than this. While the Yankees added former All-Stars Cody Bellinger, Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, and Devin Williams this past winter, they skimped when it came to third base. They opened the season with utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera playing there regularly, but he hit a meager .243/.322/.308 (83 wRC+) before suffering a season-ending left ankle fracture on May 12. Oswald Peraza, a former top-40 prospect who backed him up and then briefly took over the spot, hasn’t even managed that level of offense, hitting .149/.213/.243 (28 wRC+) while making 30 of his 43 starts at third base. Prospect Jorbit Vivas (35+ FV) has been similarly helpless (.149/.245/.255, 45 wRC+) while making six of his 18 starts at the hot corner. DJ LeMahieu didn’t even engender enough confidence in his physical condition to return to third base before being released last week, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s latest stint at the position was cut short due to shoulder soreness; LeMahieu’s departure allowed him to return to second.

The Yankees have Lopez and Candelario at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, but neither one is the answer. They’re hunting bigger game. Suárez, McMahon, and Hayes — whose father Charlie Hayes played third for the Yankees in the 1990s, catching a foul ball for the final out of the 1996 World Series — are all on New York’s radar, as is Nolan Arenado. A deal for the Cardinals third baseman would be complicated by the $50 million-plus in salary he’s still owed through 2027, not to mention the full no-trade clause that he’d have to waive in order for a deal to go through — and that’s before considering that the Cardinals are fighting for a playoff spot themselves. Even if Arenado is not an option, general manager Brian Cashman almost certainly has to find an upgrade.

Twins

We’re four positions into this year’s Replacement Level Killers series and the Twins have touched ’em all, so to speak. The main culprit here is Royce Lewis, who began the season on the injured list with a strained left hamstring, and after being activated in early May put the finishing touches on a 39-plate appearance hitless streak, then later endured a separate 35-PA streak of futility and another trip to the IL for a left hamstring strain. Amid all that, he’s hit just .216/.281/.302 (64 wRC+) in 153 PA, though since June 3, when he ended his second hitless streak, he’s batted a much more respectable .309/.368/.412 (120 wRC+).

In all likelihood, the way forward is with Lewis, not only because he played at an All-Star level for much of last season, but also because there are only so many spots a team on the outskirts of a Wild Card race can be expected to fix. That said, Brooks Lee has hit much better during his time at third base (.297/.339/.483, 128 wRC+) than anywhere else; his offensive struggles while playing second are a big reason the Twins landed on that list. Between Lee, Willi Castro, and current St. Paul Saint Jose Miranda, the Twins have alternatives, but the hope is things won’t come to that.

Brewers

With the departure of Willy Adames via free agency, the Brewers chose to move Joey Ortiz from third base to shortstop, which hasn’t gone so well. (Spoiler alert: Tune in tomorrow.) Milwaukee didn’t seek out a new third baseman, instead leaving the gate with a platoon involving lefty-swinging Oliver Dunn and righty Vinny Capra. That plan lasted about three weeks before Dunn, who hit for just a 17 wRC+ with -0.3 WAR, was optioned to Triple-A Nashville, with Caleb Durbin getting called up to replace him. The 25-year-old Durbin, a 5-foot-7, 40-FV prospect acquired from the Yankees (ahem) in the Williams trade, has hit a respectable .261/.348/.363 (107 wRC+) — which is to say, he’s been more productive than Arenado, who’s slugging .388 with a 93 wRC+.

As you might guess, Durbin’s performance has been a very contact-centric one, with a 7% walk rate and a 9.2% strikeout rate. He’s somehow done this while ranking in the first percentile in exit velocity (84.8 mph) and in the second percentile in hard-hit rate (24.8%), but thanks to that on-base percentage and good defense (6 DRS, 1 FRV), he’s produced 1.4 WAR. The Brewers’ overall mark here is just obscured by all the negative contributions from Dunn and Capra, who now toils for the White Sox. Durbin is probably better suited for a utility role in the long run, so the Brewers could stand pat here, but the loss of first baseman Rhys Hoskins to a Grade 2 left thumb sprain has magnified their need for a power bat. Suárez would be a great fit, not that there’s been any heat to suggest it’s a strong possibility.

Phillies

Alec Bohm is no stranger to these lists, but while his .281/.327/.395 (101 wRC+) line is a little light in the power department, he’s not the problem, having totaled 1.5 WAR, 1.4 of which has come as a third baseman. Edmundo Sosa and Otto Kemp, on the other hand, have combined for -0.8 WAR while making 18 starts and combining to go 11-for-67 with one extra-base hit as third basemen; most of that happened while Bohm was covering first base during Bryce Harper’s stint on the injured list for right wrist inflammation. The Phillies soon figured out that keeping Bohm at third — where he’s become an average fielder by the metrics, in contrast to his early-career struggles — and putting Kemp at first worked better. Of course, having Harper at first works even better. While the NL East-leading Phillies have some obvious needs (here’s another spoiler alert for you kids), count this as another situation that doesn’t require a fix.