2025 MLB Draft Rankings Update

Day One of the amateur draft kicks off this evening, and I’ve done a top-to-bottom refresh and expansion of my draft prospect rankings, which you can see on The Board. Please go read those blurbs and explore the tool grade section to get a better idea of my thoughts on the players. The goal of the draft rankings is to evaluate and rank as many of the players who are talented enough to hop onto the main section of the pro prospect lists as possible, so they can be ported over to the pro side of The Board as soon as they’re drafted. Players for whom that is true tend to start to peter out in rounds four and five of the draft as bonus slot amounts dip below $500,000. Over-slot guys are obvious exceptions. By the seventh round, we’re mostly talking about org guys who are drafted to make a team’s bonus pool puzzle fit together, or players who need significant development to truly be considered prospects. That usually means ranking about 150 players, and this year’s class is right in that range; right now, I have 152 guys on there.

This is a pretty average draft class with roughly the usual number of players who’ll go straight to the Top 100 list (often six, give or take, and this year has eight). It has an above-average number of exciting high school position players, but a below-average contingent of college position players. Usually, my 45 FV grade tier runs through just about the end of the first round, and this year it is bang on at 33 players deep. The 40+ FV tier typically peters out in the middle of the second round, but because there are so many fun high schoolers, this year’s group runs through the second round. These are exciting developmental players but not overt impact prospects. Readers can kind of get the idea of the value of a draft pick in the area where the 45 FV tier transitions into the 40+ tier, because we just saw a one-for-one, big-leaguer-for-draft-pick trade when the Orioles dealt a good middle reliever (Bryan Baker) to the Rays for the 37th overall pick, right around where I think there’s a drop-off into the next tier of talent. Once upon a time, Alex Claudio was traded for a similar pick. Proximity is value when we’re talking about baseball prospects and draft capital.

Readers should peruse the scouting reports and tool grades of every 45 FV player and above. Those are the players who will be up near the top of team prospect lists as they’re drafted. Below that, unless you’re fixing to read 20,000 words, I have a chef’s selection of player clusters I think you should check out:

High-Upside, Projection-Based High Schoolers

This is the tier of player running from 34th to 45th overall. The high schoolers in this range often have a present flaw keeping them from the first round section of the rankings, but are big, projectable athletes who through physical maturation and development might not only polish those issues, but also ascend to a higher level of play. Teams that anticipate these players will improve, or that think their player dev group can help them achieve a new gear, could be on these guys in the middle of the first round. Gavin Fien and Daniel Pierce fit into this category. There are similar players I have ranked in the 50s (Mason Ligenza, Alec Blair, Dean Moss, Michael Oliveto) who have an extra element of risk compared to those other guys.

College Pitchers on the Starter/Reliever Line

FanGraphs readers no doubt understand that pro teams’ dev groups often make college pitchers better. The college arms in the no. 48-68 range are the ones who I think have exciting foundations already and are most ripe for improvement. Some of them lost reps to injury (like AJ Russell) or were multi-sport athletes (like Riley Quick) or transfers (like Anthony Eyanson), or spent most of college in the bullpen (like Mason Morris). I tend to view aspects of prospects’ skill sets that are shrouded or underdeveloped for some reason as positives. If two pitchers look exactly the same except one started for three years at a big school and the other is a Division-II guy who has never been exposed to the tools of modern development, I want the second guy. These pitchers have something like that going for them.

Freaky College Outfielders

The three center field prospects ranked no. 82-84 (Indiana’s Korbyn Dickerson, George Mason’s James Quinn-Irons, and Southern Miss’ Jake Cook) all have rare tools for college players and could have huge ceilings if they clear some developmental hurdles. Dickerson has plus power and speed, but his swing looks long and unplayable at times. It’s purely a visually identifiable issue that takes a certain amount of experience (mostly getting similar hitters wrong and learning from the mistake) to identify. Cook is a converted pitcher who might be the fastest player in the draft. Quinn-Irons is a 6-foot-5 small-school hitter with some of the best raw power in the draft, and he posted plus contact rates even though his swing is also a mess.

On the Top-of-the-Class Guys

I think Liam Doyle and Ethan Holliday are freaky enough to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. I’ve written about my concerns regarding Holliday’s swing and showcase performance, and they remain. Druw Jones had similar warning flags when he was in high school, but he didn’t have this level of physicality and bat speed. The risk I associate with Holliday’s swing and performance (go read the report for more) is the reason he’s not ranked first, but he’s too talented not to stuff.

I’ll continue working on my mock, with the aim to publish a bit before the first round kicks off. As always, I’ll be chatting during the first round, Wojing picks where I can.