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2019 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals.

Batters

When I saw the Washington Nationals towards the end of the randomly generated ZiPS order back around Thanksgiving, I thought to myself, “There’s no way that Bryce Harper appears in those projections unless he re-signs.” But here we are! Even more surprising is the degree to which ZiPS has fallen in love with Juan Soto, leaving Bryce Harper as merely the second-ranked player on the Nationals’ list. Young players don’t get the Ken Griffey Jr. offensive comp very often. In fact, I think Soto is the first player to get Jr. as his top comp at this early an age. Comps to Griffey in his thirties tend to be more common (Edwin Encarnacion got him as his No. 3 comp).

What you have here is a lineup in which the cream is very…uh…creamy. Soto’s projections rank him the No. 1 left fielder in baseball among the teams whose projections have gone live and I don’t think I’m giving any spoilers away by saying that neither Kyle Schwarber or Brett Gardner will have better projections. Anthony Rendon won’t drop below fifth among third baseman and there’s nobody left to push Trea Turner below the bronze at shortstop. That give the Nationals three players with a mean projection that makes them legitimate stars. The supporting cast is pretty good, too: Eaton’s at the back of the top 10 if he can stay healthy, ZiPS projects a decent bounce back campaign from Brian Dozier, and catcher and first base don’t drag the team down. Victor Robles isn’t projected to make as big a splash as Juan Soto, but is still soothsayed as an above average center fielder as a rookie.

Pitchers

The pitching bears a resemblance with the lineup in that the highs here are very high. You could do a lot worse than your top three starters having Greg MadduxBret SaberhagenAndy Pettitte as a set of comps. And as weird as it sounds, ZiPS may even be slightly underrating Patrick Corbin; if I used a beta version of ZiPS that is probably a year away from going live, Corbin’s 3.63 ERA would drop to 3.42 and he’d go from the 16th pitcher ranked so far to the 12th. The difference is the full implementation of plate discipline data, which shows Corbin was the second-hardest starting pitcher (min. 100 innings) to make contact against in 2018. It’s easy to cruise on your team’s defense or a lucky BABIP; it’s much harder to cruise by fooling batters, and Corbin doesn’t use a novel trick that might cause him to have a short shelf life.

After the top three starters, ZiPS is unimpressed with Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson. ZiPS would actually slightly prefer that the Nats use Erick Fedde and Joe Ross in those slots, but none of them are all that exciting. Ross was at one point, and he’s young enough to still recover, but his career was waylaid considerably by injury.

The bullpen is pretty much the same story. After Sean Doolittle (who has the 7th best projected ERA+ in baseball so far, though Yankees ‘pen is still to come) and Trevor Rosenthal, there’s a whole lot of meh going on. The only relief pitcher who really makes the computer feel a little flush is Austin Adams (there are two Austin Adami), a reliever with the classic mid 90s-fastball/slider combo and another classic trait of many hard-throwing minor league relievers: frequent control issues. Last year, Adams made real progress with his control, getting his walk rate under four in Triple-A while striking out 15 batters per nine innings, though Washington showed little interest in seeing what Adams can do. Washington never really seemed to have much faith in Felipe Vazquez or Blake Treinen either. One would think they’d have learned their lessons about not being more curious about hard-throwing strikeout machine relievers with command issues.

Bench and Prospects

ZiPS has the Nationals with the most WAR in the NL East, but does not similarly project them to be the first-place team. Simply put, ZiPS is unimpressed with team’s depth overall. This is due both to the reserves and the back of the bullpen, but also a minor league system that is likely to provide little in the way of additional reinforcements. Now, Robles is still technically a prospect, but he’s already considered here as a starter, not a reinforcement, and of the center field time split in the depth chart WARtoon, it’s Robles who makes up the bulk of the value rather than Michael Taylor.

The one exception is Carter Kieboom, a player who ZiPS thinks could backstop an injured infielder quite adequately, and certainly be an upgrade from Wilmer Difo, who would be the likely replacement if injury strikes a Turner or a Rendon (something which has happened before). Long-term, ZiPS projects a lot of power upside from Kieboom, thinking he’ll get into the twenties in home runs a year fairly easily, with peak WARs that suggest multiple All-Star appearances.

After that, there’s very little in short-term value. The next-best position player in the minors for the Nats, at least in terms of how ZiPS views 2019, is catcher Tres Barrera, projected to hit .228/.287/.355 for a 0.3 WAR in just under 300 plate appearances (which will almost certainly all be in the majors in 2019). And really, if a catcher was injured, whichever of Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes is healthy is likely to simply take over most of the additional playing time.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 20 LF 153 558 106 165 31 4 36 112 98 130 8 4
Bryce Harper L 26 RF 149 516 104 140 30 1 35 109 119 153 14 5
Trea Turner R 26 SS 156 621 96 171 30 9 19 75 56 132 45 9
Anthony Rendon R 29 3B 140 522 80 147 38 2 21 88 62 90 5 2
Adam Eaton L 30 RF 119 452 71 133 24 6 9 48 45 87 11 4
Brian Dozier R 32 2B 142 552 87 138 32 4 25 83 61 127 12 4
Victor Robles R 22 CF 122 454 57 117 25 6 10 53 36 95 28 12
Carter Kieboom R 21 SS 120 482 64 116 24 1 15 56 46 125 7 3
Matt Adams L 30 1B 118 305 39 77 16 0 18 62 25 78 0 0
Kurt Suzuki R 35 C 95 316 36 83 18 0 9 49 19 43 0 0
Yan Gomes R 31 C 103 361 42 86 19 0 13 49 20 102 0 0
Wilmer Difo B 27 2B 138 423 55 105 17 5 7 40 33 91 14 4
Michael A. Taylor R 28 CF 124 381 46 89 19 2 11 40 30 133 22 6
Ryan Zimmerman R 34 1B 104 370 51 96 21 1 17 66 32 86 2 1
Matt Wieters B 33 C 96 320 32 76 14 0 9 43 31 69 0 0
Matt Reynolds R 28 SS 106 338 41 78 19 3 5 33 31 95 4 2
Moises Sierra R 30 RF 100 334 39 85 16 1 8 38 25 78 6 4
Tres Barrera R 24 C 69 259 28 59 13 1 6 25 17 66 2 0
Spencer Kieboom R 28 C 77 244 28 56 12 0 4 24 26 50 0 0
Adrian Sanchez B 28 SS 108 348 35 86 19 2 4 33 16 64 8 5
Howie Kendrick R 35 2B 92 331 41 92 18 2 6 34 22 67 6 3
Jacob Wilson R 28 3B 112 394 46 89 20 1 10 45 34 102 2 2
Pedro Severino R 25 C 100 324 32 75 13 1 7 33 20 70 2 1
Miguel Montero L 35 C 78 218 24 48 7 0 7 29 30 64 1 0
Jason Martinson R 30 3B 95 348 39 65 12 2 14 42 27 167 4 3
Jake Noll R 25 3B 129 491 54 118 17 3 10 50 24 103 6 3
Luis Sardinas B 26 SS 103 348 38 90 13 2 5 33 16 63 6 4
Austin Davidson L 26 1B 106 355 43 84 18 3 8 39 34 79 5 4
Brandon Snyder R 32 3B 108 376 47 84 19 2 14 50 31 141 3 1
Irving Falu B 36 2B 100 361 37 91 14 2 4 34 24 39 7 5
Raudy Read R 25 C 91 342 36 82 19 2 7 37 18 76 2 1
Hunter Jones R 27 CF 114 422 45 97 15 5 6 38 31 105 12 5
Drew Ward L 24 1B 118 408 51 88 19 2 11 46 50 153 1 2
Matt Hague R 33 1B 92 341 39 87 18 0 6 34 34 61 2 1
Alec Keller L 27 LF 98 369 39 94 15 4 2 30 22 76 5 4
Yadiel Hernandez L 31 LF 117 411 50 101 16 1 12 47 42 106 3 2
Bengie Gonzalez R 29 SS 107 361 36 81 16 2 3 28 28 76 7 4
Andrew Stevenson L 25 CF 133 445 49 105 14 4 5 38 33 117 17 9
Jose Marmolejos L 26 1B 127 486 55 118 25 3 10 53 37 121 0 1
Tyler Goeddel R 26 LF 99 321 36 73 12 3 5 31 28 87 8 3
Michael Almanzar R 28 3B 102 362 34 82 18 1 7 36 17 98 0 1
Chris Dominguez R 32 1B 88 293 32 67 14 1 10 35 11 98 6 3
Khayyan Norfork R 30 2B 75 220 22 48 8 0 2 16 16 63 3 1
Taylor Gushue B 25 C 96 349 36 70 14 1 9 38 27 110 0 1
Zach Collier L 28 RF 95 305 32 60 13 4 5 29 28 117 4 4
Chuck Taylor B 25 LF 124 486 54 118 21 3 5 44 43 101 3 4
Dan Gamache L 28 2B 117 396 41 90 17 1 5 34 36 117 1 4
Rafael Bautista R 26 CF 97 361 37 85 9 3 2 23 20 79 19 6
Telmito Agustin L 22 LF 105 370 40 84 15 3 8 36 21 105 9 6
Adam Brett Walker R 27 LF 93 336 42 62 14 2 18 55 28 169 4 1
Osvaldo Abreu R 25 SS 119 430 45 89 18 3 7 38 33 136 7 6

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Juan Soto 658 .296 .400 .559 149 .263 .329 8.6 -6 5.1 Ken Griffey
Bryce Harper 646 .271 .407 .537 146 .266 .320 8.2 -4 4.7 Elbie Fletcher
Trea Turner 685 .275 .337 .444 103 .169 .323 6.1 3 4.4 Rafael Furcal
Anthony Rendon 597 .282 .360 .483 119 .201 .307 6.6 6 4.4 Davey Johnson
Adam Eaton 513 .294 .371 .434 111 .139 .348 6.2 7 3.0 Pat Kelly
Brian Dozier 623 .250 .329 .458 104 .208 .283 5.5 -2 2.8 Jose Valentin
Victor Robles 510 .258 .329 .405 92 .148 .307 5.0 7 2.4 Milton Bradley
Carter Kieboom 534 .241 .311 .388 83 .147 .295 4.3 0 1.5 Michael Young
Matt Adams 334 .252 .311 .482 104 .230 .282 5.4 5 1.3 Daryle Ward
Kurt Suzuki 350 .263 .321 .405 89 .142 .280 4.8 -1 1.2 Mike Lieberthal
Yan Gomes 391 .238 .289 .399 79 .161 .297 4.1 3 1.1 Nelson Santovenia
Wilmer Difo 464 .248 .304 .362 74 .113 .302 4.1 6 1.0 Derek Wathan
Michael A. Taylor 414 .234 .291 .381 75 .147 .329 4.2 3 0.8 Damon Mashore
Ryan Zimmerman 410 .259 .320 .459 102 .200 .296 5.4 -2 0.8 Hubie Brooks
Matt Wieters 357 .238 .306 .366 76 .128 .277 4.0 -1 0.6 Scott Servais
Matt Reynolds 375 .231 .299 .349 70 .118 .307 3.7 1 0.5 Edgar Gonzalez
Moises Sierra 366 .254 .314 .380 82 .126 .310 4.3 3 0.4 Kevin Romine
Tres Barrera 283 .228 .287 .355 68 .127 .283 3.6 0 0.3 David Duff
Spencer Kieboom 272 .230 .305 .328 67 .098 .274 3.5 0 0.3 Bill Dobrolsky
Adrian Sanchez 371 .247 .283 .348 65 .101 .293 3.5 2 0.2 Greg Fulton
Howie Kendrick 359 .278 .329 .399 90 .121 .333 4.9 -8 0.2 Dave Concepcion
Jacob Wilson 442 .226 .293 .358 70 .132 .280 3.6 1 0.1 Craig Walck
Pedro Severino 350 .231 .281 .343 63 .111 .275 3.4 0 0.1 Brandon Marsters
Miguel Montero 253 .220 .320 .349 76 .128 .279 3.9 -5 0.0 Chad Kreuter
Jason Martinson 383 .187 .255 .353 58 .167 .305 2.9 6 0.0 Sean Mcnally
Jake Noll 527 .240 .281 .348 65 .108 .286 3.5 4 0.0 Pat Osborn
Luis Sardinas 372 .259 .294 .351 69 .092 .304 3.7 -2 0.0 Tom Veryzer
Austin Davidson 398 .237 .310 .372 78 .135 .284 4.0 2 0.0 Matt Bowser
Brandon Snyder 414 .223 .287 .396 77 .173 .317 4.0 -5 0.0 Steve Scarsone
Irving Falu 391 .252 .299 .335 67 .083 .274 3.5 1 0.0 Casey Candaele
Raudy Read 364 .240 .280 .368 69 .129 .290 3.7 -4 0.0 Neil Wilson
Hunter Jones 466 .230 .292 .332 64 .102 .293 3.4 1 -0.1 Choo Freeman
Drew Ward 464 .216 .306 .353 73 .137 .316 3.6 3 -0.2 Lucas Duda
Matt Hague 382 .255 .325 .361 80 .106 .296 4.2 -2 -0.2 Royce Huffman
Alec Keller 397 .255 .299 .333 66 .079 .316 3.5 5 -0.2 Raul Tovar
Yadiel Hernandez 456 .246 .316 .377 82 .131 .304 4.2 -4 -0.3 Stu Pederson
Bengie Gonzalez 395 .224 .280 .305 54 .080 .277 2.9 1 -0.4 Keith Johns
Andrew Stevenson 486 .236 .292 .319 61 .083 .310 3.3 0 -0.4 Keiunta Span
Jose Marmolejos 531 .243 .298 .368 74 .126 .304 3.9 1 -0.4 Juan Tejeda
Tyler Goeddel 357 .227 .299 .330 65 .103 .297 3.5 0 -0.5 Casey Craig
Michael Almanzar 385 .227 .265 .340 58 .113 .292 3.1 2 -0.5 Colin Dixon
Chris Dominguez 312 .229 .266 .386 69 .157 .308 3.6 1 -0.5 Darrell Whitmore
Khayyan Norfork 243 .218 .282 .282 49 .064 .297 2.8 0 -0.5 Gary Green
Taylor Gushue 383 .201 .261 .324 53 .123 .265 2.8 -2 -0.6 Alan Probst
Zach Collier 339 .197 .272 .315 54 .118 .301 2.7 4 -0.7 Kevin Koslofski
Chuck Taylor 537 .243 .309 .329 68 .086 .297 3.5 0 -0.7 Scott Melvin
Dan Gamache 438 .227 .295 .313 61 .086 .310 3.0 -3 -0.8 John Hotchkiss
Rafael Bautista 391 .235 .281 .294 52 .058 .296 3.1 -3 -0.9 Fernando Ramsey
Telmito Agustin 399 .227 .273 .349 62 .122 .296 3.2 -1 -1.1 Lonnie Maclin
Adam Brett Walker 370 .185 .249 .399 66 .214 .295 3.3 -6 -1.1 Kirk Asche
Osvaldo Abreu 472 .207 .269 .312 52 .105 .286 2.7 -5 -1.2 Erick Monzon

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Max Scherzer R 34 15 7 2.98 30 30 193.3 148 64 23 50 248
Patrick Corbin L 29 12 8 3.63 32 31 181.0 171 73 21 50 195
Stephen Strasburg R 30 12 7 3.34 25 25 145.3 127 54 16 38 165
Erick Fedde R 26 6 6 4.50 25 22 112.0 118 56 14 39 95
Sean Doolittle L 32 3 1 2.95 43 0 39.7 31 13 6 7 51
Joe Ross R 26 6 5 4.53 18 18 89.3 96 45 13 27 69
Jeremy Hellickson R 32 7 7 4.74 22 22 114.0 120 60 19 31 80
Anibal Sanchez R 35 6 7 4.93 25 22 118.7 121 65 18 40 115
Austin Voth R 27 7 8 4.98 26 24 124.7 133 69 19 52 99
Logan Darnell L 30 6 7 5.09 22 18 99.0 117 56 15 33 58
Austin L. Adams R 28 3 2 3.83 43 0 51.7 40 22 4 37 68
Austen Williams R 26 6 6 4.78 32 12 92.3 98 49 14 33 79
Trevor Rosenthal R 29 3 2 3.48 36 0 33.7 29 13 3 17 46
Justin Miller R 32 5 3 3.86 53 0 56.0 51 24 8 18 62
Tyler Mapes R 27 6 7 5.08 22 19 106.3 123 60 16 35 63
Matt Grace L 30 2 1 3.99 54 1 58.7 61 26 5 18 41
Vidal Nuno L 31 3 3 4.66 33 6 65.7 71 34 13 16 56
Sterling Sharp R 24 8 9 5.21 26 26 133.0 157 77 18 51 74
Andrew Istler R 26 4 4 4.21 42 1 66.3 68 31 7 23 53
Scott Copeland R 31 7 8 5.35 21 21 109.3 124 65 17 50 73
Kyle Barraclough R 29 4 3 4.10 65 0 59.3 49 27 5 40 69
Wander Suero R 27 4 3 4.16 53 0 62.7 63 29 7 22 55
Brady Dragmire R 26 6 7 5.42 29 18 116.3 141 70 18 44 64
Henderson Alvarez R 29 3 3 5.21 10 9 48.3 56 28 7 17 24
Dakota Bacus R 28 3 3 4.82 26 4 56.0 57 30 8 27 48
Koda Glover R 26 3 2 4.32 40 0 41.7 41 20 5 15 38
Aaron Barrett R 31 1 1 4.12 23 0 19.7 18 9 2 10 19
Cesar Vargas R 27 4 5 5.42 25 15 86.3 96 52 13 47 63
Jhon Romero R 24 2 1 4.50 41 0 56.0 55 28 6 29 50
Jordan Mills L 27 3 3 4.66 39 0 48.3 49 25 5 28 41
Jaron Long R 27 7 9 5.57 25 20 124.3 152 77 23 33 68
Joaquin Benoit R 41 3 2 4.68 35 0 32.7 31 17 5 15 28
Sammy Solis L 30 2 2 4.70 57 0 46.0 45 24 7 22 48
Josh Edgin L 32 3 3 4.81 46 0 39.3 38 21 6 22 41
J.J. Hoover R 31 3 3 4.86 54 0 50.0 49 27 8 28 52
David Goforth R 30 3 4 5.37 42 2 58.7 65 35 8 31 41
Kyle McGowin R 27 6 9 5.90 25 23 122.0 137 80 27 48 105
Wil Crowe R 24 6 9 5.83 22 21 100.3 115 65 17 56 74
Tanner Rainey R 26 4 4 5.30 54 0 54.3 47 32 8 46 66
Jimmy Cordero R 27 3 4 5.40 57 0 60.0 62 36 8 40 50
James Bourque R 25 4 5 5.81 31 9 69.7 76 45 13 39 62
John Simms R 27 5 7 5.83 25 15 92.7 105 60 18 41 66
Ronald Pena R 27 2 3 5.55 36 0 47.0 49 29 8 29 43
Roman Mendez R 28 4 5 5.69 41 0 49.0 52 31 10 25 44
Bryan Harper L 29 2 3 6.38 42 0 42.3 48 30 8 31 33
Luis Reyes R 24 6 10 6.62 19 19 89.7 109 66 19 51 55

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer 775 11.54 2.33 1.07 .280 142 70 3.03 5.1 Greg Maddux
Patrick Corbin 756 9.70 2.49 1.04 .309 117 86 3.40 3.4 Andy Pettitte
Stephen Strasburg 597 10.22 2.35 0.99 .298 127 79 3.20 3.2 Bret Saberhagen
Erick Fedde 490 7.63 3.13 1.13 .309 94 106 4.26 1.1 Mike LaCoss
Sean Doolittle 156 11.57 1.59 1.36 .275 149 67 3.15 0.9 Billy Wagner
Joe Ross 388 6.95 2.72 1.31 .302 94 107 4.54 0.9 Mark Knudson
Jeremy Hellickson 490 6.32 2.45 1.50 .285 90 112 4.89 0.8 Glenn Abbott
Anibal Sanchez 512 8.72 3.03 1.37 .307 89 113 4.27 0.8 Rick Helling
Austin Voth 556 7.15 3.75 1.37 .300 85 117 4.94 0.6 Kevin Hodges
Logan Darnell 445 5.27 3.00 1.36 .306 86 116 5.13 0.5 Dave Otto
Austin L. Adams 232 11.85 6.45 0.70 .300 114 87 3.85 0.5 Jim Kern
Austen Williams 406 7.70 3.22 1.36 .305 89 113 4.64 0.4 Doug Potestio
Trevor Rosenthal 147 12.30 4.54 0.80 .329 122 82 3.27 0.4 Ernie Camacho
Justin Miller 235 9.96 2.89 1.29 .297 110 91 3.86 0.4 Bert Roberge
Tyler Mapes 474 5.33 2.96 1.35 .302 84 120 5.08 0.4 Steve Finch
Matt Grace 253 6.29 2.76 0.77 .301 106 94 3.93 0.4 Dave Tomlin
Vidal Nuno 282 7.68 2.19 1.78 .299 94 106 4.89 0.4 Sam Zoldak
Sterling Sharp 605 5.01 3.45 1.22 .307 81 123 5.15 0.3 Jake Joseph
Andrew Istler 289 7.19 3.12 0.95 .302 101 99 4.14 0.3 Adrian Devine
Scott Copeland 499 6.01 4.12 1.40 .303 82 122 5.37 0.3 Dick Fowler
Kyle Barraclough 266 10.47 6.07 0.76 .295 104 97 4.09 0.3 Jack Meyer
Wander Suero 272 7.90 3.16 1.01 .304 102 98 4.09 0.2 Rafael Montalvo
Brady Dragmire 531 4.95 3.40 1.39 .309 81 124 5.38 0.1 Tony Peguero
Henderson Alvarez 216 4.47 3.17 1.30 .295 81 123 5.22 0.1 Stephen Whitmyer
Dakota Bacus 251 7.71 4.34 1.29 .297 88 114 4.90 0.1 Mike Bumstead
Koda Glover 179 8.21 3.24 1.08 .300 98 102 4.04 0.1 Trey Witte
Aaron Barrett 87 8.69 4.58 0.92 .291 103 97 4.22 0.1 Kevin Gryboski
Cesar Vargas 400 6.57 4.90 1.36 .305 81 124 5.46 0.1 Danny Kolb
Jhon Romero 251 8.04 4.66 0.96 .301 94 106 4.47 0.0 Sam Nahem
Jordan Mills 221 7.63 5.21 0.93 .306 94 106 4.72 0.0 Brian Adams
Jaron Long 555 4.92 2.39 1.66 .304 79 127 5.43 0.0 Heath Totten
Joaquin Benoit 143 7.71 4.13 1.38 .277 91 110 4.89 -0.1 Don McMahon
Sammy Solis 204 9.39 4.30 1.37 .304 90 111 4.61 -0.1 Randy Choate
Josh Edgin 178 9.38 5.03 1.37 .302 88 113 4.96 -0.1 Sean Fesh
J.J. Hoover 226 9.36 5.04 1.44 .301 87 115 4.95 -0.2 Mike Cook
David Goforth 270 6.29 4.76 1.23 .305 79 127 5.26 -0.4 Jim Todd
Kyle McGowin 549 7.75 3.54 1.99 .304 74 135 5.66 -0.4 Pete Janicki
Wil Crowe 470 6.64 5.02 1.52 .309 73 137 5.73 -0.5 Chad Paronto
Tanner Rainey 256 10.93 7.62 1.33 .293 80 125 5.34 -0.5 Josh Banks
Jimmy Cordero 281 7.50 6.00 1.20 .300 81 123 5.37 -0.5 Ken Wright
James Bourque 323 8.01 5.04 1.68 .307 73 137 5.65 -0.5 Eulogio Delacruz
John Simms 422 6.41 3.98 1.75 .298 73 137 5.74 -0.5 Wes Wilkerson
Ronald Pena 219 8.23 5.55 1.53 .301 76 131 5.58 -0.5 Rick Greene
Roman Mendez 223 8.08 4.59 1.84 .298 77 130 5.72 -0.6 Mario Ramos
Bryan Harper 206 7.02 6.59 1.70 .305 67 150 6.46 -0.9 Scott Forster
Luis Reyes 427 5.52 5.12 1.91 .303 64 156 6.55 -1.2 Mark Woodyard

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


2019 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies.

Batters

Amusingly, Colorado’s lack of ambition this offseason may be counteracting their inability to evaluate their offensive talent. The team signed Daniel Murphy to a contract that is eminently reasonable for a player who is projected to be something like a league-average first baseman over the next two years, but has made no other significant moves. The 1.7 WAR projection for Murphy is only over 118 games, reflecting that there is some risk given that injuries limited him to just 91 games in 2018; he’ll turn 34 in April. Murphy obviously isn’t Paul Goldschmidt, but after the allowing the position to act as an Ian Desmond vanity project, leading to a -0.7 WAR and an 81 wRC+ from their starting first baseman, the Rockies should enjoy a larger improvement than most teams would have from signing him.

Speaking of one of the remaining black holes on offense, it appears that Desmond will primarily play center field in 2019, with Charlie Blackmon shifting to left. With the assumption that one is unaware of what a sunk cost is, ZiPS thinks center field is the least-bad place to play Desmond; he wasn’t really a good center fielder in his year in Texas, but he also didn’t see a relative improvement in his defensive numbers when he moved to the easy end of the defensive spectrum. Without bringing dreams of Bryce Harper, who would be an amazing fit at Coors, to fruition, I’d likely go with an outfield of Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, and David Dahl, with Mike Tauchman and Yonathan Daza as the reserves. Or perhaps Colorado could go after Adam Jones. Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

The Rays are similar to the St. Louis Cardinals in that they’re almost always one of the highest-floor teams in baseball. Since the team’s breakout season in 2008, which saw them reach the World Series, they’ve only really had one season that you could reasonably call lousy, the 68-94 campaign in 2016. Otherwise, Tampa’s been middling at worst, with a stretch of high-70s/low-80s wins that in large part reflects some draft struggles.

Since 2009, the Rays have only really hit on two players in the draft: Kevin Kiermaier and Blake Snell. Now, the jury is still out on some of these drafts, especially the more recent ones, but it’s hard for a team with Tampa Bay’s revenue model — and given some of the surrounding issues, they’re one of the few teams that really does seem to struggle financially — to compete consistently without drafts paying off. Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

Be very careful when scrolling down to look at the depth chart. The way these things work, the first thing you’ll see is the outfield, which is likely to remain an absolutely brutal mess, one that couldn’t even be half-solved by a Ronald Acuña/Juan Soto-esque rise to power by Heliot Ramos, one of San Francisco’s few top prospects. Let’s put it this way: ZiPS projects Rule 5 draftee Drew Ferguson to be arguably the best outfielder on the team, with two of the other top outfielders being a minor-league signing and a waiver claim from the Rangers. The good news is that most of the group actually projects above replacement-level, so there’s a weird amount of adequacy in terms of the depth, but the projections give absolutely none of the team’s current group a chance to have much of an upside.

Things get sunnier when you look at the infield, which is the primary reason the Giants are likely to still be projected above the Padres for one last run (though probably just for one, unless the Padres are notably unlucky or incompetent). ZiPS essentially projects improvement for all of the team’s infield starters, kind of a rarity given the generally justifiable grumpy conservativeness to which projections systems are prone. The quality of the infield lends itself well to the argument that the Giants probably ought to have won more games last year. Not enough to be a playoff team, mind you, but at least enough to tone down the bleakness.

The worrisome thing about the offense is that most of the highlight players are at ages where their downsides can still hit like a ton of bricks and fast, and there’s no counterbalancing breakout potential. To the team’s credit, they’ve given every indication they realize that the outfield is bit of a tire fire. The Giants were in on all of the Marlins outfielders last winter, brought in Andrew McCutchen for 2018 (before trading him to the Yankees), and are now courting Bryce Harper. If any team is able to convince Harper to sign a shorter-term contract, San Francisco seems like a possibility; a superstar season from Harper could get the team into plausible contention, given their outfield weakness. And time is of the essence — if the infield starters don’t bounce back, this team is absolute toast.

I am still confused as to the baseball purpose of Pablo Sandoval remaining on the roster. Did someone in the organization finish last in their fantasy baseball league, and this is their punishment?

Pitchers

Johnny Cueto could theoretically return in September, but I think the smart money is still on him not making an appearance until 2020. Which, in addition to being unfortunate for Cueto, is rather bad timing for the Giants, who are less likely to be playing meaningful games in 2020 than this year.

Madison Bumgarner only gets a two-WAR projection, but that’s over just 147 innings, due largely to his attendance over the last two seasons, when he’s missed time due to freak injuries, one caused by something somewhat unusual (a dirt bike), the other by something somewhat mundane (a line drive). Since no elbow or shoulders were involved, I’m more optimistic about Bumgarner getting back to the 200 inning range than the projections are, which would boost his WAR to around three. ZiPS projects Dereck Rodriguez to be roughly league-average, which will be disappointing to Giants fans after a season in which Rodriguez was one of the team’s few highlights, but he has a very short record track record and a low K rate, so ZiPS isn’t putting him on the Kyle Hendricks pile yet. He’s certainly unlikely to repeat the 0.68 HR/9, even playing in Oracle Park.

The bullpen isn’t flashy, but the front-end is solidly above-average, and the team’s depth projects as more than adequate for its needs. San Francisco has shown an ability to turn random pieces into good relievers, and has a solid record with reclamation projects, such as Sam Dyson.

Bench and Prospects

After Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, both likely to get official projections next year, the cupboard gets bare quickly. ZiPS does project Shaun Anderson to be a decent No. 3 starter for a time in his prime, and it has a long-term fascination with Conner Menez, but there’s just not much there there. Honestly, if the Giants had better prospects after their top two guys, I’d expect them to already have been traded for a starting pitcher. Most teams have a position player or two who ZiPS thinks projects better than the scouting reports indicate, but I’m just not seeing anybody here. Despite playing in the Pacific Coast League, Triple-A Sacramento only had one player who hit 15 homers (Chris Shaw).

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Buster Posey R 32 C 115 423 53 122 24 1 8 53 48 56 4 1
Brandon Crawford L 32 SS 143 507 59 129 29 4 14 67 46 115 4 4
Brandon Belt L 31 1B 117 416 57 104 25 3 15 53 62 122 4 1
Joe Panik L 28 2B 122 444 57 122 24 4 7 44 40 47 4 1
Evan Longoria R 33 3B 136 528 58 136 31 3 16 65 34 105 3 1
Alen Hanson B 26 2B 132 398 51 99 18 8 9 42 21 88 17 7
Breyvic Valera B 27 2B 126 424 50 113 16 4 5 38 37 48 7 7
Anthony Garcia R 27 LF 126 449 60 111 25 1 16 56 43 108 3 2
Drew Ferguson R 26 CF 92 348 45 85 18 2 6 31 39 101 9 6
Austin Slater R 26 RF 118 411 48 105 22 2 8 48 34 113 9 4
Stephen Vogt L 34 C 116 373 40 92 20 2 12 47 34 75 0 1
John Andreoli R 29 LF 115 420 52 94 19 4 6 35 51 130 20 7
Steven Duggar L 25 CF 117 467 55 116 26 4 6 42 46 139 13 6
Brock Stassi L 29 1B 89 286 35 68 16 1 6 30 37 67 0 1
Mac Williamson R 28 LF 101 348 46 81 17 1 14 43 30 103 3 2
Abiatal Avelino R 24 SS 132 489 53 119 20 6 9 43 26 108 16 6
Henry Ramos B 27 CF 99 347 39 91 17 3 7 35 24 75 6 4
Donovan Solano R 31 SS 110 397 39 102 22 1 4 33 16 61 2 1
Jerry Sands R 31 1B 93 307 36 71 16 1 10 36 33 88 2 1
Ryan Howard R 24 SS 120 465 47 118 23 3 4 41 27 77 6 4
Cameron Rupp R 30 C 90 311 31 67 15 1 10 34 29 110 0 0
Aramis Garcia R 26 C 101 386 40 84 17 1 11 41 22 128 0 1
Cesar Puello R 28 LF 90 315 42 78 14 2 6 30 29 85 8 4
Levi Michael B 28 SS 103 375 44 85 16 3 6 30 26 114 9 4
Ryder Jones L 25 3B 124 458 50 108 24 3 11 47 25 117 3 2
Mike Gerber L 26 CF 108 411 46 89 19 3 12 44 29 148 5 3
Rene Rivera R 35 C 61 173 14 37 7 0 5 21 10 58 0 0
Jin-De Jhang L 26 C 62 230 22 55 10 1 2 18 13 34 1 1
Ali Castillo R 30 3B 107 355 33 86 14 2 2 26 16 47 7 7
Ronnie Freeman R 28 C 71 231 22 52 9 1 3 17 14 57 0 0
Trevor Brown R 27 C 58 179 16 39 8 0 2 13 13 40 2 0
Caleb Gindl L 30 LF 84 266 27 60 12 2 4 24 22 64 1 2
Miguel Gomez B 26 2B 118 437 43 112 22 4 8 45 10 73 1 0
C.J. Hinojosa R 24 SS 102 395 40 92 18 2 4 31 29 68 6 4
Eury Perez R 29 RF 73 219 23 57 9 3 1 19 11 38 13 5
Pablo Sandoval B 32 3B 92 293 28 70 13 1 8 35 20 60 0 0
Zach Green R 25 1B 106 385 43 80 22 2 12 46 26 155 1 1
Chris Shaw L 25 LF 131 495 55 113 27 2 19 62 30 175 1 0
Peter Maris L 25 2B 87 317 35 72 12 3 6 28 27 72 5 5
Hamlet Marte R 25 C 72 265 27 56 12 1 6 23 17 95 2 1
Luigi Rodriguez B 26 RF 100 362 39 78 14 3 11 37 23 138 10 8
Myles Schroder R 31 1B 93 322 30 67 13 2 6 27 14 97 5 3
Heath Quinn R 24 LF 92 350 37 75 15 0 8 32 28 126 3 1
Matt Winn R 26 C 93 326 31 54 13 1 8 28 27 163 0 0
Sandro Fabian R 21 RF 120 455 43 91 20 1 10 41 18 138 2 3
Josh Rutledge R 30 2B 57 170 16 34 6 1 2 11 11 57 1 1
Jalen Miller R 22 2B 130 524 53 115 26 2 8 46 25 145 8 5

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Buster Posey 479 .288 .363 .407 109 .118 .318 5.7 7 3.8 Earl Battey
Brandon Crawford 566 .254 .320 .410 97 .156 .304 4.7 9 3.2 Jay Bell
Brandon Belt 484 .250 .351 .433 112 .183 .319 5.5 8 2.8 Leon Durham
Joe Panik 495 .275 .337 .394 98 .119 .295 5.0 0 2.0 Jeff Treadway
Evan Longoria 574 .258 .305 .419 94 .161 .295 4.7 1 1.9 Tim Wallach
Alen Hanson 427 .249 .286 .402 84 .153 .299 4.2 3 1.3 Luis Rivas
Breyvic Valera 470 .267 .324 .358 86 .092 .291 4.1 2 1.2 Wallace Johnson
Anthony Garcia 506 .247 .323 .414 99 .167 .292 4.8 -2 1.1 Kurt Bierek
Drew Ferguson 396 .244 .329 .359 87 .115 .328 4.1 -1 1.0 Larry Bigbie
Austin Slater 455 .255 .319 .377 89 .122 .334 4.4 1 0.9 Ruben Mateo
Stephen Vogt 413 .247 .310 .408 93 .161 .280 4.5 -8 0.8 Bill Freehan
John Andreoli 478 .224 .311 .331 75 .107 .310 3.7 7 0.8 Reggie Williams
Steven Duggar 517 .248 .317 .360 84 .111 .342 4.1 -5 0.7 Rich Becker
Brock Stassi 328 .238 .326 .364 88 .126 .291 4.1 3 0.7 Ray Giannelli
Mac Williamson 386 .233 .303 .408 91 .175 .290 4.3 0 0.7 Scott Bryant
Abiatal Avelino 523 .243 .285 .364 75 .121 .296 3.8 -3 0.6 Hector Luna
Henry Ramos 378 .262 .309 .389 88 .127 .317 4.3 -4 0.5 Andrew Locke
Donovan Solano 421 .257 .288 .348 72 .091 .295 3.6 -1 0.4 Alvaro Espinoza
Jerry Sands 344 .231 .308 .388 88 .156 .292 4.2 1 0.4 Jarrod Patterson
Ryan Howard 503 .254 .298 .342 74 .088 .297 3.6 -4 0.4 Dean DeCillis
Cameron Rupp 344 .215 .285 .367 76 .151 .298 3.6 -4 0.4 Chad Moeller
Aramis Garcia 413 .218 .264 .352 66 .135 .296 3.2 1 0.4 Alvin Colina
Cesar Puello 360 .248 .329 .362 88 .114 .321 4.3 -2 0.3 Domingo Michel
Levi Michael 416 .227 .295 .333 71 .107 .310 3.5 -3 0.3 Doug Baker
Ryder Jones 493 .236 .282 .373 76 .138 .294 3.7 -2 0.3 Brennan King
Mike Gerber 447 .217 .271 .365 71 .148 .307 3.4 0 0.2 Justin Bowles
Rene Rivera 188 .214 .267 .341 64 .127 .291 3.1 0 0.1 Shawn Wooten
Jin-De Jhang 247 .239 .280 .317 62 .078 .273 3.1 0 0.1 Dave Miley
Ali Castillo 379 .242 .276 .310 59 .068 .275 2.8 7 0.1 Robert Eenhoorn
Ronnie Freeman 249 .225 .270 .312 58 .087 .287 2.9 1 0.0 Kyle Geiger
Trevor Brown 195 .218 .278 .296 57 .078 .270 3.0 -1 -0.1 David Duff
Caleb Gindl 292 .226 .285 .331 67 .105 .283 3.2 2 -0.2 Jeff Wetherby
Miguel Gomez 451 .256 .273 .380 75 .124 .292 3.8 -6 -0.2 Donnie Hill
C.J. Hinojosa 432 .233 .287 .319 65 .086 .272 3.2 -4 -0.2 Keoni DeRenne
Eury Perez 239 .260 .303 .342 75 .082 .311 3.9 -2 -0.3 Jason Bourgeois
Pablo Sandoval 319 .239 .292 .372 79 .133 .276 3.8 -7 -0.3 Geoff Blum
Zach Green 422 .208 .270 .369 72 .161 .312 3.4 1 -0.4 Ryan Mulhern
Chris Shaw 533 .228 .278 .406 83 .178 .312 4.0 -7 -0.4 Glenn Davis
Peter Maris 351 .227 .287 .341 70 .114 .276 3.3 -5 -0.4 Chris Lombardozzi
Hamlet Marte 285 .211 .257 .332 59 .121 .305 2.9 -6 -0.7 David Ross
Luigi Rodriguez 391 .215 .264 .362 68 .146 .315 3.1 0 -0.7 Tony Barron
Myles Schroder 348 .208 .255 .317 54 .109 .279 2.7 5 -0.8 Marc Sagmoen
Heath Quinn 384 .214 .279 .326 64 .111 .310 3.1 -2 -0.8 Lance Hallberg
Matt Winn 357 .166 .233 .285 40 .120 .297 2.2 -1 -0.9 Steve Lomasney
Sandro Fabian 485 .200 .238 .314 49 .114 .264 2.4 10 -0.9 John Lindsey
Josh Rutledge 184 .200 .255 .282 46 .082 .288 2.4 -4 -0.9 Paul Hoover
Jalen Miller 559 .219 .261 .323 58 .103 .288 2.9 -3 -1.0 Chris Patten

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Madison Bumgarner L 29 8 8 3.86 24 24 147.0 139 63 21 37 135
Johnny Cueto R 33 7 7 3.92 22 22 133.0 131 58 17 35 110
Dereck Rodriguez R 27 7 7 4.19 27 26 146.0 150 68 18 45 114
Drew Pomeranz L 30 7 8 4.42 28 21 116.0 111 57 14 57 107
Derek Holland L 32 7 8 4.54 29 25 134.7 135 68 19 56 118
Jeff Samardzija R 34 7 8 4.59 22 22 131.3 134 67 19 35 109
Will Smith L 29 3 2 2.94 57 0 52.0 41 17 5 17 69
Tony Watson L 34 5 4 3.17 66 0 59.7 54 21 6 15 57
Andrew Suarez L 26 9 11 4.60 30 29 162.3 176 83 24 47 130
Conner Menez L 24 8 10 4.52 27 27 125.3 123 63 14 74 115
Carlos Navas R 26 4 4 3.93 43 1 68.7 66 30 7 24 63
Reyes Moronta R 26 4 3 3.39 65 0 58.3 44 22 4 36 74
Mark Melancon R 34 2 2 3.22 47 0 44.7 43 16 3 11 35
Ty Blach L 28 7 9 4.55 37 18 128.7 143 65 14 36 73
Chris Stratton R 28 8 11 4.73 28 26 144.7 155 76 18 57 111
Keyvius Sampson R 28 8 10 4.69 26 19 126.7 106 66 15 76 129
Derek Law R 28 3 3 3.67 49 0 56.3 54 23 4 20 49
Sam Dyson R 31 4 4 3.84 64 0 58.7 58 25 5 20 44
Shaun Anderson R 24 6 9 4.86 25 24 129.7 142 70 20 41 97
Logan Webb R 22 3 4 4.81 27 24 88.0 91 47 11 42 70
Chase Johnson R 27 3 4 4.74 19 17 62.7 68 33 6 29 40
Dillon McNamara R 27 3 3 4.21 39 1 51.3 51 24 5 23 44
Ray Black R 29 3 3 3.94 56 0 48.0 33 21 5 34 77
Tyler Rogers R 28 3 3 4.02 52 0 65.0 65 29 4 28 47
Sam Coonrod R 26 5 7 4.89 22 18 95.7 99 52 12 49 79
Pat Venditte R 34 3 3 4.44 38 0 48.7 46 24 6 24 45
Jake Barrett R 27 2 3 4.03 53 0 58.0 52 26 6 31 62
Sam Moll L 27 2 2 4.02 40 0 47.0 48 21 4 18 37
Travis Bergen L 25 3 3 4.13 30 0 28.3 26 13 3 13 27
Steven Okert L 27 2 2 4.10 52 0 48.3 46 22 7 16 49
Tyler Herb R 27 5 8 5.17 21 21 108.0 120 62 14 49 73
Manny Parra L 36 2 2 4.14 39 0 45.7 46 21 3 23 35
Jamie Callahan R 24 3 3 4.50 29 1 40.0 41 20 4 19 32
Sam Wolff R 28 2 3 4.37 29 0 35.0 32 17 4 21 39
Pierce Johnson R 28 3 3 4.52 45 3 63.7 60 32 7 35 64
Enderson Franco R 26 6 9 5.22 26 21 119.0 135 69 17 52 86
Jordan Schafer L 32 1 1 4.59 27 1 33.3 32 17 4 17 33
Brandon Beachy R 32 1 1 5.79 6 6 23.3 26 15 4 14 15
Pat Ruotolo R 24 2 3 4.89 41 0 42.3 40 23 8 22 51
Josh Osich L 30 1 1 4.71 54 1 57.3 59 30 7 28 47
Casey Kelly R 29 7 11 5.22 28 23 131.0 151 76 21 45 89
Joan Gregorio R 27 4 6 5.35 20 15 79.0 83 47 14 39 71
Melvin Adon R 25 4 6 5.40 19 16 80.0 89 48 9 51 55
Carlos Diaz L 25 2 3 4.80 40 0 50.7 50 27 4 34 40
Kieran Lovegrove R 24 2 3 4.91 42 0 55.0 54 30 5 39 47
Garrett Williams L 24 5 8 5.30 31 16 88.3 92 52 8 67 66
Jose Valdez R 29 3 4 5.27 45 0 54.7 54 32 8 36 52
Taylor Hill R 30 5 9 5.48 23 19 106.7 130 65 18 31 53
Tyler Beede R 26 5 9 5.55 30 17 99.0 108 61 15 60 83
Jordan Johnson R 25 6 11 5.62 24 23 115.3 128 72 19 63 83
Ryan Halstead R 27 2 4 5.64 38 0 52.7 60 33 12 16 42
Michael Connolly R 27 4 8 5.85 25 14 92.3 112 60 17 37 53

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Madison Bumgarner 612 8.27 2.27 1.29 .285 102 98 4.03 2.0 Bud Black
Johnny Cueto 561 7.44 2.37 1.15 .290 100 100 4.08 1.7 Bob Forsch
Dereck Rodriguez 630 7.03 2.77 1.11 .297 97 103 4.28 1.7 Steve Fireovid
Drew Pomeranz 511 8.30 4.42 1.09 .294 92 109 4.43 1.0 Rich Robertson
Derek Holland 590 7.89 3.74 1.27 .296 90 112 4.59 1.0 Shawn Estes
Jeff Samardzija 557 7.47 2.40 1.30 .295 89 113 4.26 0.9 Bill Gullickson
Will Smith 212 11.94 2.94 0.87 .300 134 75 2.78 0.9 Ken Dayley
Tony Watson 247 8.60 2.26 0.91 .289 124 80 3.45 0.8 Tony Castillo
Andrew Suarez 705 7.21 2.61 1.33 .306 86 117 4.47 0.8 Bobby Livingston
Conner Menez 571 8.26 5.31 1.01 .302 87 115 4.71 0.8 Trevor Wilson
Carlos Navas 295 8.26 3.15 0.92 .299 103 97 3.86 0.6 Daryl Irvine
Reyes Moronta 253 11.42 5.55 0.62 .290 116 86 3.41 0.6 Brian Wilson
Mark Melancon 186 7.05 2.22 0.60 .294 122 82 3.26 0.6 Dick Coffman
Ty Blach 557 5.11 2.52 0.98 .299 87 115 4.34 0.5 Mike Caldwell
Chris Stratton 640 6.91 3.55 1.12 .305 83 120 4.52 0.5 Kevin Hodges
Keyvius Sampson 558 9.17 5.40 1.07 .273 84 119 4.57 0.4 Victor Zambrano
Derek Law 241 7.83 3.20 0.64 .301 107 93 3.51 0.3 Mark Lee
Sam Dyson 253 6.75 3.07 0.77 .293 103 97 3.93 0.3 Jack Aker
Shaun Anderson 569 6.73 2.85 1.39 .302 81 123 4.77 0.3 Mike Lincoln
Logan Webb 396 7.16 4.30 1.13 .300 82 122 4.82 0.2 Jesus Silva
Chase Johnson 284 5.74 4.16 0.86 .302 83 120 4.70 0.2 Sean White
Dillon McNamara 227 7.71 4.03 0.88 .303 97 103 4.22 0.1 Casey Daigle
Ray Black 211 14.44 6.38 0.94 .301 100 100 3.55 0.1 Dwayne Henry
Tyler Rogers 287 6.51 3.88 0.55 .299 98 102 3.98 0.1 Bruce Dal Canton
Sam Coonrod 434 7.43 4.61 1.13 .302 81 124 4.85 0.1 Allen Edwards
Pat Venditte 216 8.32 4.44 1.11 .290 92 109 4.57 0.1 Jim Czajkowski
Jake Barrett 256 9.62 4.81 0.93 .299 98 102 4.12 0.1 George Smith
Sam Moll 205 7.09 3.45 0.77 .306 98 102 3.96 0.1 Jim Crawford
Travis Bergen 124 8.58 4.13 0.95 .291 99 101 4.21 0.1 Mike Venafro
Steven Okert 207 9.12 2.98 1.30 .295 96 104 4.18 0.1 Javier Lopez
Tyler Herb 490 6.08 4.08 1.17 .305 79 127 5.01 0.0 Ben Fritz
Manny Parra 205 6.90 4.53 0.59 .303 95 105 4.11 0.0 Joe Gibbon
Jamie Callahan 179 7.20 4.28 0.90 .303 90 111 4.43 0.0 Rick Greene
Sam Wolff 158 10.03 5.40 1.03 .304 93 107 4.38 0.0 Gabriel Dehoyos
Pierce Johnson 285 9.05 4.95 0.99 .301 87 115 4.36 -0.1 Ryan Henderson
Enderson Franco 542 6.50 3.93 1.29 .311 78 128 5.05 -0.1 Rick Sutcliffe
Jordan Schafer 148 8.91 4.59 1.08 .301 86 116 4.35 -0.1 C.J. Nitkowski
Brandon Beachy 109 5.79 5.40 1.54 .293 68 147 6.02 -0.2 Jim Abbott
Pat Ruotolo 189 10.84 4.68 1.70 .305 83 120 4.97 -0.3 Lariel Gonzalez
Josh Osich 258 7.38 4.40 1.10 .301 84 119 4.72 -0.3 John Curtis
Casey Kelly 586 6.11 3.09 1.44 .307 76 132 5.07 -0.3 Jim Magrane
Joan Gregorio 357 8.09 4.44 1.59 .301 74 136 5.29 -0.3 Carl Dale
Melvin Adon 379 6.19 5.74 1.01 .309 73 137 5.34 -0.4 Rich Dorman
Carlos Diaz 235 7.11 6.04 0.71 .299 82 122 4.79 -0.4 Brian Adams
Kieran Lovegrove 257 7.69 6.38 0.82 .301 83 121 4.91 -0.4 Lloyd Allen
Garrett Williams 423 6.72 6.83 0.82 .304 74 134 5.31 -0.4 Ken Chase
Jose Valdez 253 8.56 5.93 1.32 .299 77 129 5.29 -0.6 Marty McLeary
Taylor Hill 478 4.47 2.62 1.52 .303 72 139 5.39 -0.6 Allen Davis
Tyler Beede 464 7.55 5.45 1.36 .310 71 141 5.44 -0.7 Julien Tucker
Jordan Johnson 535 6.48 4.92 1.48 .300 70 143 5.67 -0.8 Jim Hunter
Ryan Halstead 233 7.18 2.73 2.05 .300 70 143 5.60 -0.9 Dwayne Pollok
Michael Connolly 424 5.17 3.61 1.66 .305 67 148 5.79 -1.0 Scott Shoemaker

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/11/19

12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The ancient prophecy that was foretold, about a chat coming at noon has now come to pass.

12:00
Chet: Can you explain the frank Thomas comp for Tyler white in your recent ZiPS projections?

12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are two Frank Thomases of note in history.

12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One is FRANK THOMAS

12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the other is Frank Thomas.

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: rather than use all caps, for the purpose of ZiPS comps, Frank Thomas is Not That Frank Thomas

Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Houston Astros

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros.

Batters

Suffice it to say, the highs here are very, very high. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa are all threats to have MVP-caliber seasons in any given year. Yes, Correa missed significant time due to back soreness, his second season in a row marred by injury and time on the injured list. And yes, Correa did have easily the worst of his four major league seasons in 2018. But it’s still too early to call him injury-prone, and he’s 24, not 34. His age is also an important number to remember when we consider his offensive regression last year; if he were a hotshot shortstop prospect being called up for his age-23 season and had a .728 OPS in a theoretical 140-game rookie season, he’d be getting Rookie of the Year votes.

ZiPS is extremely optimistic when it comes to Kyle Tucker, and if he plays as well as his projection, I suspect he will force his way into the lineup quickly, kicking off domino effect that will result in Michael Brantley or Josh Reddick getting more DH playing time, Tyler White more time at first, and Yuli Gurriel more time on the bench. Gurriel was a good stopgap first baseman, but average-ish first basemen turning 35 don’t usually have gentle aging curves. It’s likely the Astros’ weakest position and if Tucker’s pushing comes to shoving, Gurriel is the most likely to lose at-bats. Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

With the position players, we have the sizzle that moved the Brewers from an adequate team to a very good one, thanks to the additions of last year’s best, high-profile free agent signing in Lorenzo Cain and the best, high-profile trade in Christian Yelich. ZiPS was a believer in both — I peppered my articles last winter with predictions of a Yelich breakout and Cain as the best free agent hitter available after J.D. Martinez — so the two of them having MVP-type seasons hardly should make ZiPS sour on them. And it didn’t! Sure, Cain turns 33 early in the season, but his defense hasn’t declined as of yet. Indeed, he may actually be underrated at this point; he should have made a minimum of four All-Star appearances rather than a measly two.

I feel for Manny Pina, who is essentially getting pushed aside for Yasmani Grandal, and while the Brewers absolutely should prefer Grandal — he’s younger, better, and signed to a ridiculously team-friendly contract — Pina’s been perfectly adequate behind the plate. The depth charts have Kratz backing up Grandal, but I’d suspect that in a time when the catcher position is weak around baseball, Milwaukee will trade Pina, or play him for a bit before leaving him open to a waiver claim later in the spring.

I’m kind of sad that Arcia’s projection for 2019 is so light on WAR. He’s always been a favorite of mine, but if he’s not matching his minor league glove reputation in the majors, he’s not much of a starter unless his bat rebounds in a big way.

Pitchers

ZiPS is once again more bullish on the Brew Crew’s starting pitching than Steamer is this year, but it still doesn’t see any of the Brewers as an obvious ace type. It’s easy for people criticize Steamer based on the current depth charts, but I think people are underestimating the challenges of projecting essentially the entire Brewer rotation. Each pitcher who is likely to contribute has at least something that makes it difficult for any prognosticator to do their job. Let’s take a look.

Jhoulys Chacin beat his FIP by half-a-run thanks to a .250 BABIP. He’s shown no signs of being able to do this repeatedly in the past, but also spent a lot of his career at Coors, which is obviously an extremely difficult environment for a pitcher.

Zach Davies looked like he was becoming a solid No. 2 or 3 guy, but missed significant time with shoulder injury in 2018.

When it comes to Chase Anderson, well, there’s beating your FIP, and there’s beating your FIP, and Anderson did the latter in 2018, besting it by nearly a run-and-a-third. ZiPS buys that there’s some ability here, but just how big that ability is remains up in the air.

Brandon Woodruff was up-and-down all year after struggling early, but will likely to get rotation spot despite only four major league starts in 2018 (he had more in the minors).

Jimmy Nelson missed the entire 2018 season due to shoulder surgery. Corbin Burnes has yet to make a major league start. Freddy Peralta has a stat profile that looks like that of a guy who throws 97 rather than 90-91.

ZiPS was closer when it came to the Brewers last year, but that’s not necessarily predictive; it wouldn’t take a lot for Steamer to win this battle. I’m less certain about the Brewers’ projections, at least on the pitching side, than I am most others this offseason.

Bench and Prospects

ZiPS buys Keston Hiura, and while it doesn’t have him becoming prime Dan Uggla or anything — I’m not sure why I chose Uggla here — the computer thinks that he’ll force his way into a job fairly quickly. I don’t think the Brewers will do with him what the White Sox did with Eloy Jimenez, and I suspect that if they weren’t going to give Hiura every opportunity to clear the field this summer, they’d have tendered Jonathan Schoop a contract.

The projections now have Mauricio Dubon as the equal of Arcia, though a large part of that has to do with Arcia’s forgettable 2018 season. That the projection is damning with faint praise is further evidenced by the fact that ZiPS sees Tyler Saladino as roughly equivalent as well. After Hiura, Dubon, Trey Supak, and Zack Brown, ZiPS sees the quality falling off very quickly, not expecting Corey Ray to ever make enough contact to be an effective major league hitter, or Lucas Ercerg to be better than a reserve.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Christian Yelich L 27 RF 154 590 102 176 38 5 28 103 73 142 19 4
Lorenzo Cain R 33 CF 132 506 78 145 23 3 11 45 53 92 23 5
Yasmani Grandal B 30 C 128 403 55 96 19 1 23 69 68 122 1 2
Travis Shaw L 29 3B 142 489 71 124 27 1 26 85 62 120 5 1
Mike Moustakas L 30 3B 140 528 68 141 28 1 32 97 41 94 2 1
Jesus Aguilar R 29 1B 153 465 69 120 23 1 28 95 50 133 0 0
Ryan Braun R 35 LF 113 398 59 107 22 2 18 65 36 86 11 4
Manny Pina R 32 C 95 304 37 75 16 1 8 36 21 64 2 0
Eric Thames L 32 1B 112 367 61 84 19 3 23 60 52 138 8 2
Christian Bethancourt R 27 C 114 365 42 86 19 0 15 50 16 89 4 1
Keston Hiura R 22 2B 122 491 57 127 26 6 12 49 31 125 11 10
Ben Gamel L 27 LF 140 479 65 128 27 8 9 53 44 108 10 4
Stephen Vogt L 34 C 116 372 43 93 20 2 15 56 35 77 0 1
Erik Kratz R 39 C 77 241 26 57 10 0 8 28 14 55 2 0
Brad Miller L 29 1B 115 366 44 87 20 4 15 55 45 112 4 2
Cory Spangenberg L 28 3B 137 419 52 103 18 5 13 49 33 140 11 3
Orlando Arcia R 24 SS 153 514 54 127 22 3 10 50 33 118 13 6
Tyrone Taylor R 25 CF 124 453 53 109 18 5 13 53 25 92 10 4
Hernan Perez R 28 2B 141 392 42 100 18 3 11 45 18 85 15 4
Mauricio Dubon R 24 SS 113 446 50 111 21 3 8 43 24 88 19 9
Nate Orf R 29 2B 121 428 53 96 20 3 6 37 42 94 11 3
Tyler Saladino R 29 SS 92 290 33 66 10 3 6 28 24 74 10 3
Troy Stokes R 23 LF 131 490 63 101 21 5 17 57 54 168 16 6
Max McDowell R 25 C 86 288 30 59 11 1 3 21 25 75 5 2
Jake Hager R 26 SS 100 376 38 87 19 3 7 37 23 86 5 3
Tyler Heineman B 28 C 74 244 28 54 12 0 3 19 25 46 2 1
Corey Ray L 24 CF 122 494 59 101 24 5 16 55 47 205 24 8
Jacob Nottingham R 24 C 90 313 36 63 13 2 11 37 25 121 3 2
Tuffy Gosewisch R 35 C 75 242 23 46 12 1 4 21 19 67 0 1
Andres Blanco B 35 2B 103 257 30 59 14 2 6 28 21 51 3 2
Lucas Erceg L 24 3B 123 479 51 111 23 2 11 49 31 114 3 3
Shane Opitz L 27 3B 76 221 22 47 9 2 2 17 17 52 4 2
Richie Shaffer R 28 1B 110 383 48 75 18 1 19 51 42 168 2 1
Jake Gatewood R 23 1B 115 441 52 98 22 2 16 55 32 167 3 2
Weston Wilson R 24 1B 114 424 46 93 18 3 9 42 27 130 5 6
Blake Allemand B 26 2B 107 372 38 84 15 2 6 31 26 92 2 4
Trent Grisham L 22 RF 122 415 52 83 13 4 9 36 64 137 15 5
Luis Aviles R 24 SS 130 471 45 97 17 3 6 36 28 169 21 8
Clint Coulter R 25 RF 115 394 44 81 18 3 13 46 27 138 2 3
Gabriel Noriega R 28 3B 86 241 20 49 6 0 3 16 9 73 1 2

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Christian Yelich 673 .298 .379 .522 136 .224 .352 7.8 3 5.2 Carl Yastrzemski
Lorenzo Cain 568 .287 .359 .409 104 .123 .333 5.9 10 3.8 Robin Yount
Yasmani Grandal 475 .238 .349 .462 113 .223 .283 5.6 2 3.2 Frankie Hayes
Travis Shaw 560 .254 .340 .472 113 .219 .286 5.9 2 3.2 Eric Chavez
Mike Moustakas 580 .267 .324 .506 116 .239 .271 6.0 0 3.2 Graig Nettles
Jesus Aguilar 526 .258 .333 .492 115 .234 .303 6.0 4 2.4 Matt LeCroy
Ryan Braun 440 .269 .332 .470 110 .201 .303 5.8 0 1.5 Al Simmons
Manny Pina 334 .247 .303 .385 81 .138 .289 4.3 5 1.3 Charlie Berry
Eric Thames 427 .229 .333 .485 114 .256 .296 5.8 -4 1.2 David Dellucci
Christian Bethancourt 386 .236 .267 .411 76 .175 .272 3.9 5 1.1 Rod Barajas
Keston Hiura 534 .259 .315 .409 90 .151 .325 4.5 -2 1.0 Tony Batista
Ben Gamel 530 .267 .331 .413 96 .146 .329 5.1 -2 0.9 David DeJesus
Stephen Vogt 413 .250 .315 .435 97 .185 .279 4.9 -8 0.8 Bill Freehan
Erik Kratz 263 .237 .294 .378 77 .141 .275 4.0 3 0.8 Pat Borders
Brad Miller 416 .238 .320 .437 99 .199 .301 5.0 0 0.8 Mike Maksudian
Cory Spangenberg 461 .246 .306 .406 87 .160 .338 4.6 -4 0.7 Mark Teahen
Orlando Arcia 553 .247 .294 .360 73 .113 .303 3.8 2 0.6 Ronny Cedeno
Tyrone Taylor 486 .241 .285 .389 77 .148 .276 4.0 2 0.6 Wendell Magee
Hernan Perez 415 .255 .286 .401 80 .145 .301 4.3 0 0.6 Frank White
Mauricio Dubon 483 .249 .288 .363 72 .114 .294 3.8 1 0.5 Diory Hernandez
Nate Orf 489 .224 .307 .327 69 .103 .274 3.6 3 0.5 Brian Harris
Tyler Saladino 321 .228 .292 .345 68 .117 .286 3.7 2 0.5 Chris Clapinski
Troy Stokes 557 .206 .295 .373 76 .167 .275 3.8 5 0.4 Ryan Lane
Max McDowell 328 .205 .288 .281 53 .076 .267 2.8 6 0.3 Brian Moon
Jake Hager 408 .231 .278 .354 67 .122 .283 3.4 2 0.2 Ed Brinkman
Tyler Heineman 276 .221 .297 .307 61 .086 .262 3.2 2 0.2 Dennis Anderson
Corey Ray 546 .204 .277 .370 70 .166 .311 3.6 1 0.2 Brad Snyder
Jacob Nottingham 348 .201 .277 .361 68 .160 .287 3.3 -1 0.1 Yohanny Valera
Tuffy Gosewisch 269 .190 .258 .298 47 .107 .246 2.5 4 -0.2 Joe Oliver
Andres Blanco 286 .230 .301 .370 77 .140 .265 3.9 -5 -0.2 Geoff Blum
Lucas Erceg 516 .232 .280 .357 68 .125 .282 3.4 1 -0.2 Jose Valdez
Shane Opitz 243 .213 .270 .299 51 .086 .269 2.8 4 -0.3 Jhonny Carvajal
Richie Shaffer 431 .196 .281 .397 77 .201 .286 3.7 -2 -0.5 Danny Peoples
Jake Gatewood 479 .222 .278 .390 75 .168 .318 3.7 1 -0.5 Rich Murray
Weston Wilson 460 .219 .272 .340 61 .120 .295 3.0 7 -0.8 Marco Pernalete
Blake Allemand 405 .226 .284 .325 62 .099 .285 3.1 -4 -0.9 Lionel Hastings
Trent Grisham 487 .200 .308 .316 67 .116 .275 3.4 -3 -0.9 Roger Bernadina
Luis Aviles 506 .206 .254 .293 45 .087 .307 2.6 3 -0.9 Dave Detienne
Clint Coulter 433 .206 .270 .365 67 .160 .280 3.3 -3 -1.1 Dustan Mohr
Gabriel Noriega 256 .203 .232 .266 32 .062 .279 2.0 0 -1.4 Toby Gardenhire

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Freddy Peralta R 23 10 7 4.01 30 27 132.3 103 59 18 75 178
Zach Davies R 26 10 9 4.26 28 28 145.7 152 69 18 45 109
Corbin Burnes R 24 9 7 3.92 49 19 135.3 127 59 17 49 131
Jhoulys Chacin R 31 11 10 4.33 32 31 166.3 161 80 21 67 134
Gio Gonzalez L 33 10 9 4.38 29 29 158.3 154 77 19 69 139
Josh Hader L 25 5 2 2.95 59 0 73.3 46 24 10 35 125
Jimmy Nelson R 30 8 7 4.30 21 21 121.3 122 58 16 46 107
Brandon Woodruff R 26 6 6 4.21 32 23 117.7 113 55 14 47 112
Chase Anderson R 31 8 8 4.47 28 28 141.0 141 70 26 50 114
Brent Suter L 29 7 6 4.08 25 18 103.7 107 47 14 24 82
Corey Knebel R 27 4 2 2.90 64 0 62.0 44 20 7 28 95
Trey Supak R 23 7 7 4.48 26 24 122.7 125 61 14 57 101
Alex Claudio L 27 4 2 3.33 67 1 75.7 76 28 5 15 49
Junior Guerra R 34 6 6 4.46 26 22 119.0 114 59 18 51 107
Jeremy Jeffress R 31 5 3 3.12 66 0 66.3 57 23 5 26 68
Aaron Wilkerson R 30 6 6 4.63 22 18 101.0 102 52 15 39 90
Jake Thompson R 25 8 8 4.98 39 20 128.3 131 71 20 62 103
Jacob Barnes R 29 2 1 3.65 61 0 61.7 56 25 5 29 61
Xavier Cedeno L 32 2 1 3.55 62 0 45.7 41 18 4 19 45
Dan Jennings L 32 4 3 3.79 65 0 57.0 57 24 4 24 41
Josh Tomlin R 34 5 6 5.03 26 16 96.7 107 54 22 12 71
Michael Brady R 32 3 3 4.70 28 7 67.0 73 35 12 12 53
Deolis Guerra R 30 3 2 4.09 42 2 55.0 53 25 8 17 56
Zack Brown R 24 5 6 5.12 23 21 110.7 118 63 19 48 91
Bobby Wahl R 27 3 3 4.12 42 1 43.7 35 20 6 27 62
Thomas Jankins R 23 8 10 5.18 24 21 123.3 141 71 20 44 81
Jake Petricka R 31 2 2 4.20 52 0 60.0 63 28 6 21 45
Bubba Derby R 25 5 6 5.25 29 16 109.7 120 64 20 51 91
Angel Perdomo L 25 4 4 5.29 24 15 80.0 78 47 11 56 75
Tristan Archer R 28 4 4 4.38 50 1 76.0 78 37 10 25 63
Jon Olczak R 25 6 5 4.22 44 0 53.3 52 25 6 25 50
Matt Albers R 36 3 3 4.35 42 0 41.3 41 20 7 12 39
Adrian Houser R 26 3 4 5.42 27 20 88.0 98 53 16 37 69
Quintin Torres-Costa L 24 4 4 4.31 44 0 54.3 47 26 6 35 63
Taylor Williams R 27 2 2 4.34 60 0 56.0 56 27 7 27 58
Boone Logan L 34 1 1 4.30 36 0 23.0 20 11 3 15 28
Erik Davis R 32 4 5 4.55 45 0 55.3 54 28 7 31 53
Erik Kratz R 39 0 0 6.75 3 0 2.7 3 2 1 1 2
Miguel Sanchez R 25 2 2 4.76 34 0 58.7 55 31 11 30 68
Conor Harber R 25 5 7 5.38 28 15 97.0 101 58 11 74 73
Hernan Perez R 28 0 0 7.36 3 0 3.7 5 3 1 1 2
Brad Kuntz L 27 3 3 4.94 35 2 51.0 51 28 7 29 46
Paolo Espino R 32 5 6 5.48 23 15 88.7 96 54 21 29 79
Cody Ponce R 25 6 8 5.46 26 15 95.7 109 58 18 38 70
Cam Roegner L 26 6 8 5.92 24 21 100.3 117 66 19 49 63
Braden Webb R 24 6 8 5.77 24 22 101.3 105 65 16 78 92
Burch Smith R 29 3 4 5.74 32 7 69.0 72 44 13 40 66
Marcos Diplan R 22 5 8 5.82 25 23 106.7 111 69 14 93 92
Nate Griep R 25 2 2 5.33 53 0 52.3 52 31 5 42 43

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Freddy Peralta 575 12.11 5.10 1.22 .286 109 91 4.09 2.2 Jason Bere
Zach Davies 630 6.73 2.78 1.11 .297 103 97 4.33 2.1 Early Wynn
Corbin Burnes 581 8.71 3.26 1.13 .293 108 92 4.11 2.1 Bob Moose
Jhoulys Chacin 724 7.25 3.63 1.14 .284 98 102 4.55 2.0 Bill Singer
Gio Gonzalez 692 7.90 3.92 1.08 .293 97 103 4.36 1.8 Bill Hallahan
Josh Hader 301 15.34 4.30 1.23 .281 149 67 3.07 1.6 Mitch Williams
Jimmy Nelson 532 7.94 3.41 1.19 .299 99 101 4.46 1.5 Elmer Riddle
Brandon Woodruff 511 8.57 3.59 1.07 .298 101 99 4.14 1.5 Pat Rapp
Chase Anderson 609 7.28 3.19 1.66 .278 95 105 5.12 1.4 Andy Messersmith
Brent Suter 438 7.12 2.08 1.22 .296 104 96 4.13 1.4 Stubby Overmire
Corey Knebel 258 13.79 4.06 1.02 .296 147 68 3.05 1.3 Jim Kern
Trey Supak 548 7.41 4.18 1.03 .301 95 105 4.55 1.3 Mike Mills
Alex Claudio 315 5.83 1.78 0.59 .292 132 76 3.43 1.2 Sparky Lyle
Junior Guerra 518 8.09 3.86 1.36 .284 95 105 4.70 1.2 Ken Hill
Jeremy Jeffress 280 9.23 3.53 0.68 .291 136 73 3.35 1.2 Greg Minton
Aaron Wilkerson 442 8.02 3.48 1.34 .297 95 106 4.61 1.0 Julian Tavarez
Jake Thompson 575 7.22 4.35 1.40 .290 88 113 5.18 0.7 Joaquin Andujar
Jacob Barnes 268 8.90 4.23 0.73 .298 117 86 3.73 0.6 Don McMahon
Xavier Cedeno 195 8.87 3.74 0.79 .294 124 81 3.63 0.6 Don Hood
Dan Jennings 249 6.47 3.79 0.63 .296 116 86 3.94 0.6 Darold Knowles
Josh Tomlin 405 6.61 1.12 2.05 .286 87 114 5.11 0.5 Hal Brown
Michael Brady 285 7.12 1.61 1.61 .299 93 107 4.61 0.4 Jose Bautista
Deolis Guerra 233 9.16 2.78 1.31 .300 104 96 4.04 0.4 Jay Tessmer
Zack Brown 496 7.40 3.90 1.55 .298 83 120 5.20 0.4 Ed Wojna
Bobby Wahl 193 12.78 5.56 1.24 .302 107 94 4.09 0.3 Ryan Bukvich
Thomas Jankins 552 5.91 3.21 1.46 .303 82 122 5.19 0.3 Nate Cornejo
Jake Petricka 262 6.75 3.15 0.90 .305 105 96 4.15 0.3 Frank Linzy
Bubba Derby 498 7.47 4.19 1.64 .303 84 120 5.42 0.3 Sean White
Angel Perdomo 374 8.44 6.30 1.24 .296 83 120 5.39 0.2 Brian Snyder
Tristan Archer 329 7.46 2.96 1.18 .300 97 103 4.35 0.2 Adrian Devine
Jon Olczak 236 8.44 4.22 1.01 .303 101 99 4.31 0.2 Jerry Reed
Matt Albers 176 8.49 2.61 1.52 .293 101 99 4.48 0.1 Mike Maddux
Adrian Houser 397 7.06 3.78 1.64 .304 81 123 5.38 0.1 Mickey Callaway
Quintin Torres-Costa 245 10.44 5.80 0.99 .297 99 101 4.36 0.1 Grant Jackson
Taylor Williams 248 9.32 4.34 1.13 .316 98 102 4.20 0.1 Blaine Neal
Boone Logan 105 10.96 5.87 1.17 .298 99 101 4.63 0.1 Marshall Bridges
Erik Davis 250 8.62 5.04 1.14 .301 93 107 4.72 0.0 Dennis Higgins
Erik Kratz 12 6.75 3.38 3.38 .250 63 159 7.65 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck
Miguel Sanchez 261 10.43 4.60 1.69 .297 92 108 5.01 -0.1 Nguyen Van Phuoc
Conor Harber 465 6.77 6.87 1.02 .299 79 126 5.59 -0.1 Tim Byron
Hernan Perez 18 4.91 2.45 2.45 .308 58 173 7.24 -0.1 Alan Benes
Brad Kuntz 232 8.12 5.12 1.24 .299 86 116 5.01 -0.1 Philip Barzilla
Paolo Espino 390 8.02 2.94 2.13 .293 78 129 5.60 -0.1 Mark Knudson
Cody Ponce 433 6.59 3.57 1.69 .302 78 128 5.51 -0.1 Tony Peguero
Cam Roegner 465 5.65 4.40 1.70 .299 74 135 6.00 -0.4 Josh Shortslef
Braden Webb 487 8.17 6.93 1.42 .303 74 136 5.90 -0.4 Jason Phillips
Burch Smith 317 8.61 5.22 1.70 .303 74 135 5.56 -0.4 Marty McLeary
Marcos Diplan 523 7.76 7.85 1.18 .306 73 137 5.94 -0.5 Jason Phillips
Nate Griep 250 7.39 7.22 0.86 .299 80 125 5.33 -0.5 Dave Cole

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


2019 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics.

Batters

From the projections, one can see why the A’s let Jed Lowrie go so easily, despite his legitimate star-level performance in 2017 and ’18. Five Oakland infielders — the starters plus Franklin Barreto — project to be league-average or better. Now, none of them project to reach the level of Lowrie’s 4.9 WAR in 2018, but then again, neither does Lowrie, and mid-30s middle infielders tend to have pretty steep aging curves. And really, if anyone thought Lowrie was going to perform at an All-Star level again in 2019, he likely would have done better than two years and $20 million. Jurickson Profar projects to be a worthy replacement for Lowrie, and his return from literally years of injury and then underperformance is one of my favorite stories in baseball.

Except for catcher and the four-headed chimera in left field — at least, as our depth charts have it figured so far — the A’s project to be average or better, and sometimes significantly so, at every position. Perhaps ZiPS is trying to do penance for missing on the A’s by something like 20 wins in 2018.

Don’t get too excited about the Matt Olson comp; this version is from when Ortiz was still in the “Wait, is that the same guy as David Arias?” portion of his career, before he became Big Papi.

Pitchers

Ok, the highs are not very high. That’s due in large part to the fact that ZiPS is projecting fairly low innings totals for Oakland’s pitchers across the board. The system is aware of the injuries to Sean Manaea and Andrew Triggs in very general terms, so these aren’t theoretical “healthy” projections. As such, Manaea’s projection isn’t unexpected, but Triggs’s was a legitimate surprise to me. But again, I’m going to de-wind your sails a little bit by noting that ZiPS sees the Triggs injury as a generic “shoulder” ailment because I don’t have the data on thoracic outlet syndrome recoveries that I do with those from Tommy John. Regardless, this is an injury that you really don’t want.

The rotation’s highs may not be very high, but ZiPS sees the group as incredibly deep. 18 pitchers project to be worth at least one WAR if playing in the majors, and though a few of them are relievers (Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino, and Joakim Soria) and Brett Anderson is a free agent, that’s still a lot of options.

Bench and Prospects

I hope that someday I can love somebody or something the way ZiPS loves Jesus Luzardo. No, the computer isn’t projecting him to actually have Steve Carlton’s career, but who wouldn’t take that as a top comp? ZiPS already sees Luzardo as the team’s best starting pitcher, a pretty shocking projection for a guy who started the season in A-ball and whose parent club isn’t, say, the Baltimore Orioles.

It also interests me that ZiPS pegs Sean Murphy as the team’s best catching option. I’m definitely interested to see where he falls on the McDongenhagen prospect list; he ranked sixth last year, but after a .285/.361/.489 year and a finish at Triple-A, I would imagine he’s moved up. Conversely, Oakland cooled on Dustin Fowler and now largely sees him as a fourth outfielder. Overall, ZiPS sees a lot more of interest in the minor league pitchers than the hitters.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Matt Chapman R 26 3B 140 526 83 126 31 4 28 76 56 170 3 3
Matt Olson L 25 1B 150 535 81 126 30 1 31 87 70 170 2 1
Khris Davis R 31 DH 145 531 82 131 24 1 39 108 57 174 1 1
Stephen Piscotty R 28 RF 146 526 72 135 35 2 21 80 51 125 4 3
Ramon Laureano R 24 CF 120 449 62 108 23 4 15 53 43 143 18 5
Marcus Semien R 28 SS 152 580 78 145 30 3 18 67 54 132 13 4
Franklin Barreto R 23 2B 124 449 63 107 20 3 24 65 32 157 8 4
Jurickson Profar B 26 SS 137 485 68 119 28 4 13 56 49 88 8 1
Sean Murphy R 24 C 84 314 36 69 18 1 8 33 22 74 2 0
Nick Martini L 29 LF 124 426 55 104 19 3 6 42 53 103 5 2
Dustin Fowler L 24 CF 126 474 53 125 25 6 14 62 19 105 16 7
Chad Pinder R 27 LF 116 387 50 93 19 2 16 47 26 120 2 2
Mark Canha R 30 LF 119 385 55 91 24 1 16 55 32 99 3 2
Chris Herrmann L 31 C 82 210 28 42 8 2 5 25 29 67 2 0
Corban Joseph L 30 2B 122 440 47 109 20 1 9 45 30 57 4 4
Eric Campbell R 32 2B 102 325 45 77 15 2 5 39 45 71 5 4
Bruce Maxwell L 28 C 82 271 26 59 15 0 5 28 25 79 0 0
Beau Taylor L 29 C 88 305 32 63 14 1 4 26 35 95 1 1
Josh Phegley R 31 C 68 200 22 43 13 1 5 23 15 52 0 0
Luis Barrera L 23 CF 128 472 49 110 20 7 4 38 27 105 16 7
Matthew Joyce L 34 LF 109 287 41 62 15 0 11 33 44 76 1 2
Mark Payton L 27 LF 91 320 37 70 12 4 7 31 32 87 4 5
Slade Heathcott L 28 1B 80 281 31 59 12 2 6 28 23 102 6 3
Jonah Heim B 24 C 114 428 40 88 18 1 6 36 27 104 2 1
Skye Bolt B 25 CF 118 444 48 89 21 3 11 44 39 157 10 5
B.J. Boyd L 25 LF 120 469 46 111 17 3 4 38 25 93 7 4
Brett Vertigan L 28 LF 101 378 37 77 16 2 1 22 35 108 9 4
Sheldon Neuse R 24 3B 128 481 45 105 22 3 7 41 28 168 5 3
Nate Mondou L 24 2B 129 503 52 113 21 3 3 38 36 109 8 7
Tyler Ramirez L 24 LF 129 494 53 103 23 3 9 45 46 185 4 3
Melvin Mercedes B 27 2B 85 282 29 58 8 2 1 17 31 69 5 5
Jorge Mateo R 24 SS 127 500 48 103 20 11 7 45 26 163 22 11
Kevin Merrell L 23 SS 77 326 30 73 9 2 1 19 15 83 7 7
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. B 30 1B 107 388 40 89 15 2 1 25 32 64 5 5
J.P. Sportman R 27 2B 117 472 46 100 20 3 10 46 21 135 12 7
Seth Brown L 26 1B 128 497 52 101 22 3 11 51 38 182 5 2

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Chapman 591 .240 .318 .473 115 .234 .299 5.3 14 4.3 Eric Hinske
Matt Olson 614 .236 .329 .469 117 .234 .284 5.5 7 2.9 David Ortiz
Khris Davis 602 .247 .326 .516 127 .269 .289 6.0 0 2.9 Jay Buhner
Stephen Piscotty 590 .257 .331 .451 113 .194 .300 5.4 5 2.6 Jermaine Dye
Ramon Laureano 503 .241 .314 .410 98 .169 .320 4.8 7 2.4 Rob Ducey
Marcus Semien 641 .250 .313 .405 97 .155 .295 4.7 -1 2.3 Travis Fryman
Franklin Barreto 493 .238 .299 .457 105 .218 .310 4.8 3 2.2 Tony Batista
Jurickson Profar 548 .245 .326 .400 100 .155 .276 4.8 -2 2.2 Keith Lockhart
Sean Murphy 343 .220 .278 .360 75 .140 .263 3.5 5 0.9 Walt McKeel
Nick Martini 488 .244 .332 .345 88 .101 .309 4.1 5 0.9 Steve Braun
Dustin Fowler 498 .264 .293 .430 97 .167 .313 4.7 -5 0.9 Rick Manning
Chad Pinder 424 .240 .299 .424 97 .183 .307 4.4 2 0.8 Ruben Mateo
Mark Canha 430 .236 .309 .429 101 .192 .278 4.7 -4 0.5 John Valle
Chris Herrmann 242 .200 .299 .329 74 .129 .268 3.4 0 0.4 Erik Pappas
Corban Joseph 477 .248 .297 .359 80 .111 .267 3.7 0 0.3 Kevin Howard
Eric Campbell 381 .237 .336 .342 89 .105 .289 4.0 -7 0.2 Bobby Scales
Bruce Maxwell 298 .218 .282 .328 68 .111 .289 3.2 0 0.1 Dave Parrish
Beau Taylor 344 .207 .291 .298 64 .092 .286 2.9 1 0.1 Jack Fimple
Josh Phegley 220 .215 .277 .365 76 .150 .266 3.5 -2 0.1 Yorvit Torrealba
Luis Barrera 507 .233 .277 .331 67 .097 .292 3.3 3 0.0 Leo Garcia
Matthew Joyce 337 .216 .321 .383 94 .167 .255 4.1 -5 -0.1 Stu Pederson
Mark Payton 359 .219 .291 .347 76 .128 .279 3.3 2 -0.4 Nathan Panther
Slade Heathcott 311 .210 .275 .331 67 .121 .306 3.1 3 -0.5 Paul Hertzler
Jonah Heim 461 .206 .254 .294 51 .089 .258 2.5 3 -0.5 Damon Berryhill
Skye Bolt 492 .200 .267 .336 65 .135 .283 3.0 0 -0.5 Steve Moss
B.J. Boyd 503 .237 .280 .311 64 .075 .288 3.1 7 -0.6 Corey Coles
Brett Vertigan 420 .204 .272 .265 50 .061 .283 2.5 11 -0.6 Jay Sitzman
Sheldon Neuse 514 .218 .261 .320 60 .102 .320 2.9 3 -0.7 Jeff Moronko
Nate Mondou 554 .225 .283 .296 61 .072 .281 2.8 1 -0.7 Frank Martinez
Tyler Ramirez 551 .209 .282 .322 67 .113 .313 3.1 4 -0.8 Troy O’Leary
Melvin Mercedes 319 .206 .288 .259 54 .053 .269 2.4 -1 -0.8 Luis Lorenzana
Jorge Mateo 535 .206 .250 .332 59 .126 .291 2.8 -1 -0.9 Mike Benjamin
Kevin Merrell 346 .224 .259 .273 48 .049 .298 2.2 -3 -1.3 Mike Huyler
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 429 .229 .289 .286 61 .057 .272 2.8 -1 -1.5 Keith Smith
J.P. Sportman 498 .212 .249 .331 58 .119 .275 2.8 -5 -1.5 Tom Nevers
Seth Brown 540 .203 .261 .326 61 .123 .296 2.9 -3 -2.1 Craig Cooper

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Blake Treinen R 31 6 3 2.66 65 0 71.0 57 21 4 24 77
Jesus Luzardo L 21 9 6 3.59 23 23 102.7 99 41 10 31 94
Sean Manaea L 27 8 7 4.15 22 21 121.3 123 56 15 32 87
Daniel Mengden R 26 9 8 4.37 28 24 138.0 144 67 18 40 96
Chris Bassitt R 30 7 6 4.12 25 18 107.0 108 49 11 42 84
Mike Fiers R 34 9 8 4.29 27 26 142.7 145 68 23 41 118
Lou Trivino R 27 7 4 3.36 66 1 72.3 63 27 5 30 70
Frankie Montas R 26 8 8 4.41 31 22 118.3 127 58 14 45 90
Jharel Cotton R 27 7 6 4.26 20 19 112.0 111 53 15 41 97
Andrew Triggs R 30 5 4 3.82 13 13 70.7 68 30 7 21 62
Joakim Soria R 35 4 2 3.11 60 0 55.0 48 19 4 17 60
Brett Anderson L 31 6 6 4.22 22 21 102.3 116 48 11 26 64
Liam Hendriks R 30 4 2 3.27 56 5 55.0 47 20 5 18 63
Brian Howard R 24 8 9 4.46 23 22 123.0 134 61 17 38 91
Jake Buchanan R 29 8 8 4.68 25 22 130.7 154 68 12 45 68
Parker Dunshee R 24 6 7 4.64 25 21 120.3 128 62 20 38 96
Marco Estrada R 35 9 9 4.75 26 26 142.0 140 75 22 50 105
Ben Bracewell R 28 7 7 4.68 25 21 119.3 132 62 16 38 75
A.J. Puk L 24 6 5 4.26 18 16 82.3 78 39 8 41 80
Paul Blackburn R 25 6 6 4.47 20 20 104.7 115 52 12 29 59
Tanner Anderson R 26 5 5 4.12 40 6 89.7 97 41 8 29 54
J.B. Wendelken R 26 3 2 3.78 58 1 69.0 67 29 7 25 67
Matt Milburn R 25 7 8 4.87 25 23 138.7 163 75 21 26 76
Aaron Brooks R 29 7 7 4.70 27 19 111.0 128 58 17 30 79
Daniel Gossett R 26 7 8 4.83 22 22 113.7 122 61 16 44 84
Eric Jokisch L 29 7 7 4.72 24 20 124.0 141 65 16 43 77
Fernando Rodney R 42 4 3 3.86 57 0 53.7 48 23 5 26 54
Yusmeiro Petit R 34 4 3 3.94 59 0 75.3 74 33 11 16 64
Xavier Altamirano R 24 8 9 4.95 26 23 127.3 148 70 18 42 72
Edwin Jackson R 35 6 7 4.75 26 22 119.3 125 63 18 51 85
James Naile R 26 7 9 4.98 24 23 128.3 151 71 18 41 64
Kyle Lobstein L 29 6 7 4.87 24 19 101.7 107 55 13 44 72
Ryan Buchter L 32 3 2 3.61 59 0 47.3 40 19 5 20 47
Kyle Crockett L 27 2 2 3.88 51 0 48.7 49 21 6 13 42
Ryan Dull R 29 3 3 4.00 54 0 54.0 49 24 8 16 54
Grant Holmes R 23 9 11 4.92 26 21 124.3 127 68 18 61 105
Jerry Blevins L 35 3 2 3.96 61 0 38.7 36 17 4 19 39
Brian Schlitter R 33 4 3 4.15 50 0 52.0 54 24 2 26 30
Dean Kiekhefer L 30 4 4 4.25 48 1 55.0 61 26 6 13 34
Wei-Chung Wang L 27 6 8 4.97 31 19 114.0 127 63 18 43 78
Raul Alcantara R 26 5 7 5.10 30 14 90.0 105 51 16 21 48
Carlos Ramirez R 28 2 2 4.86 38 1 50.0 48 27 6 33 44
Jarret Martin L 29 2 2 4.66 41 0 46.3 41 24 3 41 45
Kyle Finnegan R 27 2 3 4.93 40 1 49.3 50 27 7 27 41
Sam Bragg R 26 4 5 5.14 38 4 70.0 79 40 10 28 43
Miguel Romero R 25 2 3 4.86 41 1 53.7 57 29 8 21 43
John Gorman R 27 3 3 4.83 39 0 54.0 60 29 8 19 35
Norge Ruiz R 25 6 9 5.31 23 22 118.7 144 70 19 42 60
Parker Bridwell R 27 4 6 5.52 22 16 93.0 105 57 19 33 61

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Blake Treinen 291 9.76 3.04 0.51 .288 154 65 2.81 2.0 Jason Isringhausen
Jesus Luzardo 437 8.24 2.72 0.88 .301 114 88 3.67 1.9 Steve Carlton
Sean Manaea 516 6.45 2.37 1.11 .287 102 98 4.26 1.6 Kirk Rueter
Daniel Mengden 593 6.26 2.61 1.17 .291 97 103 4.45 1.6 Charlie Corbell
Chris Bassitt 470 7.07 3.53 0.93 .298 103 97 4.29 1.5 Jim Bagby
Mike Fiers 610 7.44 2.59 1.45 .290 96 105 4.60 1.5 Bob Walk
Lou Trivino 308 8.71 3.73 0.62 .290 126 79 3.48 1.4 Hector Carrasco
Frankie Montas 524 6.85 3.42 1.06 .306 96 104 4.46 1.2 Bill Swift
Jharel Cotton 485 7.79 3.29 1.21 .294 96 104 4.39 1.2 Zach Day
Andrew Triggs 300 7.90 2.67 0.89 .296 111 90 3.74 1.2 Scott Erickson
Joakim Soria 228 9.82 2.78 0.65 .303 136 73 2.95 1.2 Rich Gossage
Brett Anderson 443 5.63 2.29 0.97 .309 97 103 4.12 1.1 Jerry Reuss
Liam Hendriks 228 10.31 2.95 0.82 .298 129 77 3.08 1.1 Bert Roberge
Brian Howard 540 6.66 2.78 1.24 .303 92 109 4.59 1.1 Sergio Mitre
Jake Buchanan 588 4.68 3.10 0.83 .312 90 111 4.52 1.0 Joe Genewich
Parker Dunshee 526 7.18 2.84 1.50 .297 91 110 4.86 1.0 Kelly Downs
Marco Estrada 607 6.65 3.17 1.39 .276 89 112 4.78 1.0 Mike Moore
Ben Bracewell 525 5.66 2.87 1.21 .298 90 111 4.77 1.0 Pat Ahearne
A.J. Puk 364 8.74 4.48 0.87 .303 96 104 4.11 0.9 Derek Thompson
Paul Blackburn 454 5.07 2.49 1.03 .295 92 109 4.49 0.9 Ron Reed
Tanner Anderson 393 5.42 2.91 0.80 .300 100 100 4.24 0.9 Chad Kimsey
J.B. Wendelken 298 8.74 3.26 0.91 .308 112 89 3.79 0.8 Blaine Neal
Matt Milburn 601 4.93 1.69 1.36 .302 87 115 4.76 0.8 Heath Totten
Aaron Brooks 488 6.41 2.43 1.38 .312 90 111 4.69 0.8 Lary Sorensen
Daniel Gossett 504 6.65 3.48 1.27 .299 88 114 4.82 0.7 Jake Joseph
Eric Jokisch 552 5.59 3.12 1.16 .305 87 115 4.77 0.7 Jimmy Anderson
Fernando Rodney 235 9.06 4.36 0.84 .295 110 91 4.03 0.7 Roberto Hernandez
Yusmeiro Petit 310 7.65 1.91 1.31 .288 104 96 3.99 0.7 Dick Hall
Xavier Altamirano 569 5.09 2.97 1.27 .303 86 117 5.03 0.6 Nate Cornejo
Edwin Jackson 528 6.41 3.85 1.36 .288 86 116 5.04 0.6 Jim Hearn
James Naile 573 4.49 2.88 1.26 .300 85 118 5.10 0.6 Michael Macdonald
Kyle Lobstein 453 6.37 3.90 1.15 .295 87 115 4.84 0.6 Jimmy Anderson
Ryan Buchter 201 8.94 3.80 0.95 .276 113 88 3.93 0.6 J.C. Romero
Kyle Crockett 206 7.77 2.40 1.11 .301 109 92 3.95 0.5 Mike Jeffcoat
Ryan Dull 225 9.00 2.67 1.33 .283 106 95 4.08 0.5 Todd Burns
Grant Holmes 559 7.60 4.42 1.30 .296 83 120 4.98 0.4 Ken Pumphrey
Jerry Blevins 171 9.08 4.42 0.93 .302 104 97 4.18 0.3 Marshall Bridges
Brian Schlitter 234 5.19 4.50 0.35 .299 99 101 4.11 0.3 Don McMahon
Dean Kiekhefer 238 5.56 2.13 0.98 .302 96 104 4.20 0.3 John Boozer
Wei-Chung Wang 507 6.16 3.39 1.42 .299 82 121 5.07 0.3 Greg Kubes
Raul Alcantara 394 4.80 2.10 1.60 .294 83 121 5.29 0.2 Tim Kester
Carlos Ramirez 230 7.92 5.94 1.08 .292 87 115 5.11 0.0 Hal Reniff
Jarret Martin 221 8.74 7.96 0.58 .295 88 114 4.90 0.0 Arnold Earley
Kyle Finnegan 223 7.48 4.93 1.28 .295 86 116 5.10 0.0 Mike Zimmerman
Sam Bragg 315 5.53 3.60 1.29 .300 82 122 5.15 -0.1 Chuck Crumpton
Miguel Romero 238 7.21 3.52 1.34 .301 84 119 4.83 -0.1 Andy Nezelek
John Gorman 240 5.83 3.17 1.33 .297 85 118 5.00 -0.1 Reid Santos
Norge Ruiz 538 4.55 3.19 1.44 .304 77 130 5.43 -0.1 Melqui Torres
Parker Bridwell 414 5.90 3.19 1.84 .290 77 130 5.69 -0.2 Dana Kiecker

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


2019 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels, allegedly of Anaheim.

Batters

You may have heard of Mike Trout; he’s pretty good. I’m amazed that Andrelton Simmons still seems to be underrated by the media and fans. When was the last time a shortstop with a crazily hyped glove was underrated? You’d almost think that he was Adam Everett or Mark Belanger or Omar Vizquel when in fact he’d have been worth just under eight WAR over the last two seasons if he were a league-average defensive shortstop. Simmons has already snuck into the Top 50 all-time by my colleague Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric, just a season from catching Dave Concepcion, Rafael Furcal, Vizquel, and the fringe Hall of Famer Rabbit Maranville. ZiPS projects Simmons to finish his career as the No. 14 shortstop by JAWS, just behind Derek Jeter and Barry Larkin, and just ahead of Bobby Wallace and Lou Boudreau. Andrelton is a superstar.

Albert Pujols is no longer a major league-caliber baseball player. He’s collected his 3000th hit and his 600th home run, but pretending that Pujols, at his best one of the greatest hitters of our generation, deserves a spot on the roster, let alone significant playing time, is becoming increasingly untenable. At some point, the Angels have to approach him with a plan to make as graceful and quick an exit from his playing career as they can manage, because in a world where the team was serious about fielding the best possible roster, they would be contemplating Pujols’ unconditional release. Even the creators of AfterMASH only needed two seasons to figure out they could only taint M*A*S*H’s legacy. The Angels have let three hitters go overseas this winter who project as more useful than Pujols (Jefry Marte, Jabari Blash, and the much-maligned Jose Miguel Fernandez).

I wouldn’t be quick to think of Shohei Ohtani’s offensive performance as fluky; in some ways, it’s just a natural power improvement from his previous year in Japan. ZiPS translated Ohtani’s final two seasons in Japan at .289/.356/.485, which looks a lot like his .285/.361/.564 with the Angels, with the power growth you hope to see from a talented young player with relatively few professional at-bats (he’s only at 1536 total now). ZiPS thinks he’ll have a lower average than in 2018, but he’s a real major league hitter.

Pitchers

If the Angels could keep all five of their starting pitchers healthy, the rotation would at least be acceptable. Problem is, essentially the entire rotation has an injury history, and many of its members have an extensive one. What’s frustrating about the Angels is that they have such highs in certain areas, but also several holes they’ve barely made a meaningful effort to go about fixing. ZiPS doesn’t see very high ceilings for any of the pitchers actually on the roster. If any team needed to go after Jake Arrieta last year or Dallas Keuchel this year, it’s the Angels. It would only take a few injuries for the Angels to have to turn to Dillon Peters or JC Ramirez (after he returns), which no contending team should be excited about.

Bench and Prospects

And here is why the Angels will fall short of the ZiPS seasonal simulation of the win total on their depth chart: the team’s plan B’s are absolutely atrocious around the field. The exceptions in the short-term are Jose Suarez and Griffin Canning, though I expect the Angels to give both a consolidation year at Triple-A (Suarez is still very young and Canning still has relatively little professional experience). Let’s put it this way: NRI Jarrett Parker is projected as the team’s fourth-best outfielder.

Things will get better. Jo Adell’s long-term projections are bananas, and the upside projections for Jahmai Jones and Brandon Marsh are at least…an apple? With a Brennon, two Brandons, and a Brendon in the projections, the Angels might as well sign Brennan Boesch to complete the set. The farm system has been steadily improving, but if the Angels want to stop wasting the prime of the best player they have ever had, and possibly will ever have, they really need to do better than dip a toe into free agency while they wait for the prospects to save them.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mike Trout R 27 CF 145 495 105 144 26 4 38 92 118 134 25 5
Andrelton Simmons R 29 SS 150 561 66 156 28 3 10 66 37 51 11 3
Shohei Ohtani L 24 DH 120 330 56 89 19 1 20 63 37 111 9 3
Justin Upton R 31 LF 141 518 76 122 23 1 28 85 61 180 9 3
Zack Cozart R 33 3B 90 339 48 84 17 3 11 36 31 62 2 1
Jabari Blash R 29 RF 112 352 55 76 16 1 22 59 46 147 5 4
Kole Calhoun L 31 RF 140 520 72 124 22 3 18 68 54 133 5 2
David Fletcher R 25 2B 128 520 57 132 25 4 5 44 25 65 10 3
Justin Bour L 31 1B 120 381 45 90 14 1 21 69 52 113 1 0
Jose Miguel Fernandez L 31 1B 114 416 51 108 19 0 12 47 30 52 2 2
Jonathan Lucroy R 33 C 120 413 43 102 18 2 7 46 32 69 1 0
Luis Rengifo B 22 SS 132 544 66 130 24 7 9 51 46 106 27 16
Jo Adell R 20 CF 99 408 50 89 19 3 16 52 23 140 11 4
Jarrett Parker L 30 LF 85 275 36 58 10 1 13 39 29 116 4 3
Wilfredo Tovar R 27 SS 116 399 40 95 16 1 5 32 22 62 14 7
Jefry Marte R 28 1B 106 319 41 73 15 1 14 45 25 77 4 2
Jose Briceno R 26 C 89 312 31 66 11 1 10 33 14 80 3 2
Zach Houchins R 26 3B 113 434 46 96 17 2 14 52 21 108 2 3
Kevan Smith R 31 C 84 289 30 73 12 0 5 31 15 49 0 0
Ben Revere L 31 LF 90 310 39 82 11 3 3 24 16 31 12 3
Taylor Ward R 25 3B 127 486 58 109 15 0 13 49 49 133 9 1
Ryan Schimpf L 31 2B 101 341 46 69 13 1 17 54 42 152 1 2
Cesar Puello R 28 LF 90 315 41 74 13 1 7 32 28 89 8 4
Dustin Garneau R 31 C 73 246 26 50 11 0 7 27 18 64 0 2
Julian Leon R 23 C 70 243 29 45 9 0 8 27 27 97 0 2
Tommy La Stella L 30 3B 104 195 21 47 9 0 3 19 19 34 0 1
Chris B. Young R 35 RF 75 181 24 38 8 1 7 19 18 50 2 1
Michael Hermosillo R 24 CF 104 382 46 82 16 3 10 38 31 125 11 8
Roberto Pena R 27 C 59 203 17 43 7 0 3 15 8 41 0 1
Peter Bourjos R 32 CF 118 290 33 63 12 5 5 25 16 79 3 4
Matt Thaiss L 24 1B 124 516 59 120 24 4 12 56 40 123 6 5
Albert Pujols R 39 1B 114 455 42 110 16 0 15 69 26 69 1 0
Sherman Johnson L 28 3B 104 363 40 70 15 2 6 31 41 112 7 3
Brennon Lund L 24 CF 106 441 47 100 15 3 6 37 31 126 16 5
Jared Walsh L 25 1B 119 456 53 98 25 1 16 56 34 164 1 1
Jahmai Jones R 21 2B 126 520 60 113 19 5 12 49 43 150 19 8
Eric Young Jr. B 34 CF 122 388 44 83 13 4 5 32 27 94 16 6
Bo Way L 27 CF 100 358 33 79 10 3 1 22 22 78 10 9
Stephen McGee R 28 C 55 170 19 30 7 0 4 15 23 70 0 0
Jose Rojas L 26 1B 110 426 45 96 18 2 11 45 23 112 6 5
Jack Kruger R 24 C 99 405 39 88 15 1 5 30 24 100 7 4
Brandon Marsh L 21 CF 119 499 56 103 19 4 11 49 44 191 10 5
Connor Justus R 24 SS 118 428 44 75 13 2 6 30 44 142 6 7
David MacKinnon R 24 1B 117 423 50 85 17 1 5 33 60 127 0 0
Roberto Baldoquin R 25 SS 81 302 24 60 7 2 2 20 15 92 4 5
Brandon Sandoval R 24 RF 101 383 37 85 10 2 3 24 25 105 14 10
Brendon Sanger L 25 RF 106 379 41 76 15 1 8 35 41 121 4 3

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Mike Trout 628 .291 .433 .590 180 .299 .328 10.1 1 8.3 Willie Mays
Andrelton Simmons 608 .278 .325 .392 97 .114 .292 4.9 17 4.2 Luke Appling
Shohei Ohtani 370 .270 .343 .515 133 .245 .347 6.6 0 2.2 Carlos May
Justin Upton 588 .236 .321 .446 109 .210 .303 5.1 1 2.1 Bob Bailey
Zack Cozart 378 .248 .315 .413 99 .165 .274 4.7 3 1.5 Rick Schu
Jabari Blash 407 .216 .317 .455 110 .239 .295 4.9 1 1.5 Karl Pagel
Kole Calhoun 583 .238 .312 .396 94 .158 .287 4.4 5 1.4 Jacque Jones
David Fletcher 556 .254 .293 .346 76 .092 .282 3.8 7 1.2 Alberto Gonzalez
Justin Bour 437 .236 .327 .444 111 .207 .279 5.2 -2 1.1 Paul Sorrento
Jose Miguel Fernandez 453 .260 .316 .392 95 .132 .273 4.5 3 0.7 Jim Bowie
Jonathan Lucroy 455 .247 .304 .351 81 .104 .282 3.9 -2 0.7 Tony Pena
Luis Rengifo 601 .239 .306 .358 83 .119 .282 3.8 -6 0.6 D’Angelo Jimenez
Jo Adell 439 .218 .269 .397 81 .179 .290 3.8 0 0.5 Matt Kemp
Jarrett Parker 308 .211 .292 .396 88 .185 .308 3.9 2 0.4 Damon Mashore
Wilfredo Tovar 427 .238 .280 .321 66 .083 .271 3.2 4 0.3 Alex Prieto
Jefry Marte 351 .229 .293 .414 93 .185 .259 4.3 -1 0.3 Ricky Freeman
Jose Briceno 330 .212 .246 .349 62 .138 .252 2.9 4 0.3 Jim Horner
Zach Houchins 461 .221 .260 .366 71 .145 .263 3.2 5 0.2 Clay Bellinger
Kevan Smith 313 .253 .298 .346 78 .093 .289 3.7 -3 0.2 Joe Azcue
Ben Revere 330 .265 .301 .348 79 .084 .286 4.1 2 0.1 Tike Redman
Taylor Ward 543 .224 .299 .335 76 .111 .282 3.6 -4 0.0 Carlos Villalobos
Ryan Schimpf 391 .202 .297 .396 89 .194 .302 3.9 -9 0.0 Shanie Dugas
Cesar Puello 359 .235 .316 .349 84 .114 .306 3.9 -2 -0.1 Domingo Michel
Dustin Garneau 271 .203 .263 .333 64 .130 .246 2.8 0 -0.1 Chad Moeller
Julian Leon 280 .185 .282 .321 67 .136 .268 2.8 -2 -0.1 Nicholas Derba
Tommy La Stella 217 .241 .313 .333 80 .092 .278 3.6 -4 -0.2 Johnny Burnett
Chris B. Young 203 .210 .287 .381 83 .171 .250 3.7 -2 -0.2 Mike Devereaux
Michael Hermosillo 432 .215 .290 .351 76 .136 .291 3.4 -4 -0.2 Xavier Paul
Roberto Pena 216 .212 .248 .291 49 .079 .252 2.4 3 -0.2 Pedro Grifol
Peter Bourjos 312 .217 .265 .345 67 .128 .282 3.0 1 -0.2 Dewayne Wise
Matt Thaiss 564 .233 .291 .364 80 .132 .283 3.6 2 -0.4 Willie Upshaw
Albert Pujols 486 .242 .284 .376 81 .134 .256 3.8 0 -0.4 Ray Knight
Sherman Johnson 411 .193 .279 .295 59 .102 .261 2.8 0 -0.5 Mike Hickey
Brennon Lund 482 .227 .285 .315 66 .088 .304 3.3 -4 -0.5 Chris Duffy
Jared Walsh 498 .215 .272 .379 78 .164 .297 3.5 1 -0.5 Jay Kirkpatrick
Jahmai Jones 572 .217 .282 .342 72 .125 .282 3.4 -8 -0.6 Desi Relaford
Eric Young Jr. 425 .214 .271 .307 60 .093 .270 3.0 -1 -0.6 Calvin Murray
Bo Way 392 .221 .275 .274 53 .053 .280 2.4 4 -0.7 Anthony Iapoce
Stephen McGee 196 .176 .281 .288 58 .112 .271 2.7 -6 -0.7 Jeff Ontiveros
Jose Rojas 455 .225 .267 .354 70 .129 .281 3.2 4 -0.7 Larry Barnes
Jack Kruger 435 .217 .267 .296 56 .079 .277 2.7 -2 -0.7 Mike Knapp
Brandon Marsh 547 .206 .272 .327 65 .120 .310 3.0 -2 -0.7 Xavier Paul
Connor Justus 487 .175 .267 .257 46 .082 .246 2.1 3 -0.9 Niuman Romero
David MacKinnon 494 .201 .306 .281 65 .080 .275 2.9 -1 -1.1 Dustin Yount
Roberto Baldoquin 324 .199 .242 .255 38 .056 .279 1.9 1 -1.2 Jason Bowers
Brandon Sandoval 413 .222 .272 .282 54 .060 .298 2.5 2 -1.4 Brent Bish
Brendon Sanger 426 .201 .282 .309 64 .108 .272 2.9 -7 -1.7 Alex Miranda

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Andrew Heaney L 28 10 8 3.95 28 28 161.7 163 71 23 38 148
Tyler Skaggs L 27 8 7 3.94 22 22 112.0 113 49 12 36 100
Jose Suarez L 21 5 5 4.18 26 26 116.3 110 54 16 46 115
Jaime Barria R 22 10 9 4.39 31 31 145.7 151 71 20 46 106
Griffin Canning R 23 8 7 4.33 23 23 114.3 111 55 14 47 99
Shohei Ohtani R 24 6 5 3.79 15 15 78.3 67 33 9 36 94
Cody Allen R 30 5 4 3.50 66 0 64.3 53 25 7 26 74
Trevor Cahill R 31 8 8 4.28 22 22 111.3 108 53 15 47 96
Matt Harvey R 30 7 8 4.56 27 24 132.3 144 67 21 30 101
Ty Buttrey R 26 3 3 3.88 49 2 67.3 61 29 6 32 71
John Lamb L 28 4 4 4.63 19 19 83.7 89 43 13 30 74
Patrick Sandoval L 22 5 6 4.75 24 19 102.3 103 54 16 45 90
Cam Bedrosian R 27 5 5 3.88 67 0 60.3 59 26 7 22 56
Alex Meyer R 29 4 4 4.43 16 11 63.0 59 31 7 34 62
Felix Pena R 29 5 6 4.73 24 22 123.7 129 65 20 45 112
Luis Garcia R 32 3 3 3.81 63 0 56.7 56 24 4 23 51
Dillon Peters L 26 7 9 4.74 24 22 117.7 133 62 16 38 77
Justin Anderson R 26 3 3 4.10 61 0 63.7 57 29 6 38 68
Taylor Cole R 29 3 3 4.19 53 0 73.0 68 34 10 33 73
Noe Ramirez R 29 5 5 4.19 61 0 73.0 68 34 11 28 77
Ivan Pineyro R 27 6 7 4.81 25 19 116.0 128 62 18 31 83
Joe Gatto R 24 6 8 5.00 25 25 113.3 123 63 10 67 67
Matt Ramsey R 29 3 2 4.08 39 1 46.3 44 21 5 20 45
Blake Wood R 33 3 3 3.95 52 0 54.7 53 24 5 24 52
Jim Johnson R 36 4 3 4.03 59 0 58.0 60 26 5 19 44
Hansel Robles R 28 4 4 4.17 63 0 69.0 65 32 9 31 67
Nick Tropeano R 28 5 7 4.98 17 17 86.7 92 48 16 35 74
John Curtiss R 26 3 3 4.30 48 0 60.7 56 29 7 31 60
JC Ramirez R 30 7 9 4.94 22 22 125.7 137 69 20 46 87
Dylan Unsworth R 26 5 7 5.07 22 16 103.0 120 58 18 21 59
Keynan Middleton R 25 2 2 4.24 50 0 51.0 49 24 7 22 51
Jeremy Rhoades R 26 6 7 4.52 52 0 71.7 77 36 10 22 52
Miguel Almonte R 26 3 4 5.25 32 9 58.3 61 34 9 30 49
Junichi Tazawa R 33 2 3 4.94 48 0 47.3 51 26 8 17 40
Deck McGuire R 30 6 8 5.22 31 19 110.3 116 64 20 48 90
Akeel Morris R 26 3 3 4.82 50 0 61.7 60 33 7 38 56
Luis Madero R 22 5 7 5.31 22 22 98.3 114 58 17 32 60
Jesus Castillo R 23 6 9 5.31 23 22 101.7 119 60 17 34 56
Ralston Cash R 27 4 6 4.92 46 0 64.0 64 35 9 36 60
Williams Jerez L 27 2 3 5.06 50 0 69.3 72 39 11 34 64
Zac Ryan R 25 4 5 4.95 40 0 63.7 64 35 6 44 50
Jake Jewell R 26 3 4 5.17 50 0 54.0 59 31 8 28 39
Daniel Procopio R 23 2 2 5.40 37 0 53.3 50 32 6 46 53
Forrest Snow R 30 5 8 5.69 27 17 104.3 119 66 24 35 82
Osmer Morales R 26 4 6 5.82 26 20 102.0 114 66 21 49 80
Luis Pena R 23 6 9 6.03 24 24 109.0 120 73 21 66 88
Ryan Clark R 25 4 7 6.39 39 7 76.0 90 54 18 37 58

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Andrew Heaney 682 8.24 2.12 1.28 .300 105 95 4.00 2.5 Mark Redman
Tyler Skaggs 483 8.04 2.89 0.96 .307 106 95 3.88 1.7 Steve Trout
Jose Suarez 503 8.90 3.56 1.24 .294 100 100 4.30 1.5 Bill Pulsipher
Jaime Barria 630 6.55 2.84 1.24 .290 95 105 4.57 1.5 Don Welchel
Griffin Canning 504 7.79 3.70 1.10 .291 96 104 4.53 1.3 Walt Terrell
Shohei Ohtani 335 10.80 4.14 1.03 .299 106 94 3.70 1.2 Kerry Wood
Cody Allen 270 10.35 3.64 0.98 .286 119 84 3.57 1.1 Turk Wendell
Trevor Cahill 489 7.76 3.80 1.21 .288 94 106 4.66 1.1 Bob Buhl
Matt Harvey 566 6.87 2.04 1.43 .301 89 113 4.48 0.9 Josh Towers
Ty Buttrey 294 9.49 4.28 0.80 .302 107 93 3.76 0.8 Clay Bryant
John Lamb 367 7.96 3.23 1.40 .308 90 111 4.58 0.7 Trey Moore
Patrick Sandoval 454 7.92 3.96 1.41 .293 88 114 4.92 0.6 Bill Krueger
Cam Bedrosian 259 8.35 3.28 1.04 .301 107 93 3.95 0.6 Jim Acker
Alex Meyer 281 8.86 4.86 1.00 .297 94 106 4.39 0.6 Chris Oxspring
Felix Pena 542 8.15 3.27 1.46 .304 85 117 4.68 0.6 Dennis Burtt
Luis Garcia 246 8.10 3.65 0.64 .311 106 95 3.54 0.6 Kevin Gryboski
Dillon Peters 521 5.89 2.91 1.22 .305 85 118 4.73 0.5 Jeff Mutis
Justin Anderson 286 9.61 5.37 0.85 .300 102 98 4.22 0.5 Marc Pisciotta
Taylor Cole 320 9.00 4.07 1.23 .291 99 101 4.49 0.5 Ruddy Lugo
Noe Ramirez 315 9.49 3.45 1.36 .294 99 101 4.36 0.4 Jim Dougherty
Ivan Pineyro 505 6.44 2.41 1.40 .301 84 119 4.72 0.4 Steve Lemke
Joe Gatto 528 5.32 5.32 0.79 .300 83 120 5.07 0.4 Rick Berg
Matt Ramsey 202 8.74 3.88 0.97 .300 102 98 4.03 0.4 Gabriel Dehoyos
Blake Wood 239 8.56 3.95 0.82 .308 102 98 3.86 0.4 Roger McDowell
Jim Johnson 251 6.83 2.95 0.78 .304 100 100 3.84 0.4 Fred Gladding
Hansel Robles 301 8.74 4.04 1.17 .293 97 103 4.38 0.3 Ruddy Lugo
Nick Tropeano 384 7.68 3.63 1.66 .297 84 120 5.16 0.3 Mark Thompson
John Curtiss 269 8.90 4.60 1.04 .293 97 103 4.40 0.3 Terry Bross
JC Ramirez 556 6.23 3.29 1.43 .295 82 123 5.08 0.3 Dick Fowler
Dylan Unsworth 447 5.16 1.83 1.57 .297 82 122 5.03 0.3 Daniel Griffin
Keynan Middleton 223 9.00 3.88 1.24 .298 95 105 4.35 0.2 Wayne Nix
Jeremy Rhoades 312 6.53 2.76 1.26 .299 92 109 4.60 0.2 Mike Draper
Miguel Almonte 265 7.56 4.63 1.39 .299 79 126 5.17 -0.1 Regular Bob Gibson
Junichi Tazawa 208 7.61 3.23 1.52 .303 84 119 4.80 -0.1 Jason Childers
Deck McGuire 494 7.34 3.92 1.63 .292 77 129 5.37 -0.1 Michael Smith
Akeel Morris 282 8.17 5.55 1.02 .298 84 119 4.80 -0.2 Heathcliff Slocumb
Luis Madero 439 5.49 2.93 1.56 .299 76 132 5.34 -0.2 Matt O’Brien
Jesus Castillo 456 4.96 3.01 1.50 .297 76 132 5.40 -0.2 Matt O’Brien
Ralston Cash 291 8.44 5.06 1.27 .301 82 122 4.93 -0.2 Ryan Henderson
Williams Jerez 313 8.31 4.41 1.43 .305 82 122 5.01 -0.3 Jimmy Hamilton
Zac Ryan 298 7.07 6.22 0.85 .299 82 123 5.07 -0.3 Lloyd Allen
Jake Jewell 249 6.50 4.67 1.33 .300 81 124 5.41 -0.3 Sean Green
Daniel Procopio 255 8.94 7.76 1.01 .299 75 134 5.38 -0.5 Heathcliff Slocumb
Forrest Snow 465 7.07 3.02 2.07 .299 73 137 5.75 -0.5 Jason Roach
Osmer Morales 467 7.06 4.32 1.85 .299 71 140 5.88 -0.6 Jeff Schmidt
Luis Pena 511 7.27 5.45 1.73 .300 69 145 6.02 -0.9 Joel Santo
Ryan Clark 353 6.87 4.38 2.13 .305 63 159 6.32 -1.3 Phil Dumatrait

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/4/19

12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ITS CHAT TIME

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BUT NOT ALL CAPITAL LETTERS TIME EXCEPT FOR ME

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: <full-on corrupt>

12:01
LFC Mike: It is rumored that during the lightning roundtoday  Dan is going to go all Adam Levine on us.

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When you come to my chats, you get my industry leading NoNipple© Guarantee.

12:01
CamdenWarehouse: Does ZiPS give you a list of comp players and then you choose the one that is funniest, most painful for that fan base, etc. or are they all the closest comp?

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