Author Archive

Stupid Money is Smart Money: A Tale of Bryce Harper

Well, they did it. The Philadelphia Phillies signed Bryce Harper to a 13-year, $330 million contract, reported with no opt-outs, opt-ins, options, opt-arounds, or any other sort of contract-related shenanigans. The Phillies have been circling this offseason in their diaries for years, the winter that a flood of awesome free agents would hit the market and the team could splash some cash and add a build-around star or two.

The plan largely went as designed. The Phillies went about their rebuilding business in a disciplined and careful fashion, seizing an opportunity or two as they popped up along the way (for example, a depressed market for Jake Arrieta and the availability of Jean Segura in a trade). Not all the free agents who hit free agency this winter did so in as exciting a manner as expected — players like Josh Donaldson and Dallas Keuchel saw their stocks drop, and Clayton Kershaw didn’t even test the market — but Bryce Harper and Manny Machado still tested the waters, with both expecting to end up with contracts near or exceeding $300 million in total value, and $30 million a year.

It was actually conceivable that the Phillies would end up with both Harper and Machado, though this bit of free agent fan fiction didn’t quite come to pass. Machado never seemed as excited about the possibility of going to Philadelphia as fans hoped even though he would have been just as useful in Philadelphia as Harper, given that the great Maikel Franco breakout appears not to be happening. With Machado gone to the Padres — who would’ve thought that two years ago — Harper was the team’s last real chance to spend that “stupid money” they were promising. Read the rest of this entry »


The Lizard King Reigns in St. Louis

The St. Louis Cardinals answered one of their long-term rotation questions Tuesday afternoon, signing starting pitcher Miles Mikolas to a four-year, $68-million extension that keeps last year’s 6th-place NL Cy Young finisher from hitting free agency until 2023.

Bringing in Mikolas was one of the league’s best free-agent signings last year, as St. Louis reeled him in from Japan on a two-year, $15.5-million contract. At the time, both my computer and I saw him as a slightly above-average innings-eater who would solidify the middle of the team’s rotation. This was an especially crucial need for the team with Alex Reyes needing Tommy John surgery, Adam Wainwright declining, Mike Leake traded to Seattle, and Lance Lynn a free agent.

The Lizard King was better than that, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA, a 3.28 FIP, and 4.3 WAR for the Cardinals in an All-Star campaign. Mikolas’s return to the United States resembled in many ways the career path of Colby Lewis, a struggling Rangers prospect rapidly declining into journeyman-player status found his way to Japan before coming back as a pitcher with much improved command of his pitches. Lewis had a nice little career after his return, with four two-WAR seasons in Texas before joining the front office last year.

Time was crucial for the Cardinals in signing Mikolas. Even though he only has two years worth of service time, he signed with the team as a bonafide free agent from overseas, and as such, had more leverage than most players with his service time might; his original deal would have made him a free agent after 2019. Read the rest of this entry »


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/25/19

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: internet come back, any kind of fool could see

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there was something in connecting to you

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: baby come back, I’m sorry I-S-P

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I need downloads, I can’t just live without you

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Doing this chat tethered to a laptop tethered to phone in a neighborhood in which EVERYBODY APPEARS TO BE DOING THIS)

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Big wind storms in OH yesterday! Lost power for 6 hours. All I had cellphone and sadness.

Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

If only an outfielder was available in the free agent market, one who could bring a significant boost to a contending team!

Shoot, I’m self-plagiarizing. Let me try again.

If only an outfielder was available in the free agent market, one who could bring nearly as much of a boost to a rebuilding team as Bryce Harper could!

The White Sox have all but held a press conference to proclaim that they’re out on Harper and it’s a shame, really. While I like Manny Machado slightly better on a pure value basis (the loss of whom not doubt still stings on the south side), Harper’s upside is probably less “known” than Machado’s, so he would be an interesting play for a rebuilding team. The White Sox have been unable to develop their own Bryce Harper, because, well, it’s really hard to develop Bryce Harpers. Harper would not have gotten this team to the playoffs in 2019 without some very unexpected things happening, but you can say much the same about Machado. Plus, the White Sox have exactly one interesting outfielder on the roster at the moment, whereas Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, and Tim Anderson could all conceivably contribute to a postseason contender. Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres.

Batters

There’s no way to talk about the Padres’ offense while ignoring the elephant in the room, San Diego’s big infield acquisition this winter. I’m talking, of course, about Ian Kinsler, who remains one of the most underrated players in baseball. The last time Kinsler failed to put up two WAR in a season was 2006, and even as his bat has declined — to a wRC+ of 93 in 2017 and 87 in 2018 — his glove has continued to add a whole win to his bottom line. He’s a really good transitional pickup as the Padres shift towards their Luis Urias/Fernando Tatis-based future.

Oh, right, you probably want to hear about the other dude! Manny Machado projects better as a third baseman than as a shortstop. Simply put, based on his age, his brief history at short and more lengthy one at third base, and a few other indicators — when you know nothing about a player, generalized speed data does have a relationship with defensive performance — Machado played worse defense at shortstop than ZiPS projected going into 2018. While we’d need to see a few years of him back at third to know whether this was due to a general defensive decline on his part or something shortstop-specific, ZiPS believes he’s a bit more valuable at third right now.

Overall, the projections for the Padres indicate a strong group of position players, no matter how the playing time actually sorts out in 2019. I know I rag on Eric Hosmer’s contract, but from a pure baseball standpoint rather than one of efficiency, if first base is really San Diego’s biggest lineup problem, the team’s probably in a good place. Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

The outfield remains the primary weakness of the team, at least in ZiPS’ digital eyes. Consisting of Kyle Schwarber (.233/.343/.472, 1.6 WAR projection), a center field combo of Albert Almora Jr. (.271/.308/.383, 1.0 WAR) and Ian Happ (.236/.335/.435, 1.4 WAR), Jason Heyward (.260/.331/.389, 1.9 WAR), and the occasional appearances by Ben Zobrist (.261/.335/.386), the group is serviceable, but unimpressive. The spares (generally Happ and Zobrist) are at least adequate, and the outfield isn’t at the Darren Aronofsky-esque levels of bleakness as in San Francisco, which is something. Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees.

Batters

After I posted the Yankees’ WARtoon on twitter, lots of people responded by picking the overs, particularly when it came to Luke Voit. Don’t be greedy. This is essentially a mean projection of 96-99 or so wins. Didn’t you learn the meaning of A Christmas Carol? If you hoard all the WAR, you will be visited by George Steinbrenner’s ghost. Wait, that actually sounds pretty cool, unless he brings along a ghastly manifestation of the Ken Phelps trade. (What is a ghost’s favorite player? Jay BOO-hner.)

ZiPS may be low on Voit, but 2.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances is an above-average first baseman, and Voit doesn’t have a long track record of excellence. It was only in 2017 that ZiPS started being interested in him, seeing his combined major league time and minor league translation as a .283/.352/.481 line. In 2018, the combined line was .284/.361/.516, not all that different in the big picture. Voit’s not a young player, and while he has hit very well in the majors, a player’s minor league career doesn’t just evaporate the second they hit the bigs and rock the league in a cup of coffee (see: Chris Singleton or Shane Greene).

The Yankees appear to have an almost Dodgers-like level of flexibility, with a number of infielders who can theoretically play every other position on the diamond. It’s a bit of over-engineering, but ideally, top teams should accumulate depth in this manner. I’d argue that the Phillies ought to have tried to sign Mike Moustakas, though he may not have been all that interested upon realizing that he’d basically be the team’s backup in the event Manny Machado cares to sign.

ZiPS now projects Aaron Hicks to be the fifth best center fielder in baseball. It’s a weird timeline, but we’re in it. Hicks is a borderline star and the fluke talk should be more or less behind us. Read the rest of this entry »


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/18/19

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Powered by bourbon and a few packs of Smarties, it’s the Dan Szymborski Chat!

12:02
Rick C: Can you elaborate further on the projections for Soto vs Acuna?  Of course Soto being above Harper even was a surprise, but he’s more than a full win ahead of Acuna.

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Acuña projects as more valuable as a centerfielder, he can’t leverage all his talents in a corner!

12:02
CamdenWarehouse: Reminder – Moose is a Hall of Fame pitcher. Mousse just signed a contract with the Brewers

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Babe Ruth can share with like a dozen guys, Moose can share.

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s not even Mussina’s to hoard: Moose Haas, Moose Skowron, and Randy Milligan shared it with him with nary a protest!

Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

In a league that is largely dominated by teams at the extremes of winning and rebuilding, the Minnesota Twins represent an increasingly rare breed: the excruciatingly, unbearably, average team. If you look at the lineup from top to bottom, there just aren’t any horrible weaknesses, with the bottom of the ZiPS ranks (Jorge Polanco, and the catching and first base timeshares) still living in the neighborhood of league-average; no scary negatives or zero-point-somethings lurk in there. But the highs aren’t really that high, either; Nelson Cruz tops the projections at 2.6 WAR, thanks to a .266/.348/.500 line. That’s the lowest top projected offensive WAR for any team that hopes to be a realistic contender in 2019.

This situation is not entirely the team’s fault, of course. ZiPS, like the Twins and most prospect-watchers, thought that Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano would, by this point, be players who formed the core of Minnesota’s lineup. There are a number of valid criticisms of how the Twins have managed Buxton and Sano, especially the former. Buxton’s inconsistent performance has been maddening, but so has the team’s tendency to go back-and-forth on whether he needed to be in the majors or the minors at any given time. His regular injuries add another frustrating complication. ZiPS has generally been optimistic about Buxton’s future, even when he’s struggled in the majors, but at this point, it’s only buying him as a league-average overall performer thanks to his excellent glove. It’s a good thing I don’t believe in curses; several years ago, I noted that ZiPS was rather cruel in assigning Carlos Gomez as Buxton’s top offensive comp, but it’s been more on-target than a computer can understand.

One of the problems with having a team full of average players is that it becomes damned hard to upgrade. There’s nowhere in the lineup where the Twins can be improved by any significant margin by adding a two-win player; really, even a three-win player would be an underwhelming addition at most positions. To upgrade the team’s offense, they need to add a legitimate star. And if that’s less likely to come by way of giant breakouts from Sano or Buxton than it once appeared, money becomes the best option in the short-term. After chasing Yu Darvish last year, I thought the Twins might sneakily be real players in the free agent market this offseason, but they really haven’t been. In a division with three rebuilding teams and a Cleveland squad whose plan in the outfield includes a heavy dose of Jordan Luplow, it feels like Minnesota should be more carpe diem and less dimitte diem.

Pitchers

The theme of being largely average continues with the pitching staff. Only Jose Berrios (at 14-10, 3.93, and 3.2 WAR) really pushes out of that middling range in the rotation. While his 2018 looked vaguely similar to his 2017, Berrios bumped up his strikes by a batter a game, and it still feels like that he has some ceiling left, even if ZiPS sees him continuing to pitch at about the same level. Berrios’s changeup has always looked nastier than it’s actually played on the field. I can’t speak for Twins fans, but to me, it’s looked like a pitch that should have struck out more than a mere 15 batters (against 11 home runs) in the right-hander’s brief career.

ZiPS remains unexcited about Blake Parker — one of the Twin’s “big” offseason moves — getting the highest-leverage innings, and instead sees Taylor Rogers or Trevor May (higher upside) as being better suited for the role. The projections are also bullish on Andrew Vasquez, a big lefty who serves up more sliders than White Castle and who rose from the Florida State League to the American League in ten weeks. But overall, the back of the bullpen looks shallower than other contenders’ and the highs are not quite as high. Of the teams that look to be around .500 or better, ZiPS projects Minnesota’s bullpen to be around the bottom, along with the Washington Nationals.

Bench and Prospects

Nick Gordon‘s offensive development has been a bit spotty, but ZiPS still sees him as a league-average regular in his prime, on the level of a slightly-better Polanco. That’s fine, but Royce Lewis’s projection is more exciting, with ZiPS seeing him peak as a 20-25 home run hitter, with projected lines in the .260/.330/.460 range, which will still work if he ends up playing center field rather than short in the majors. He even projects as useful if he were to play in the bigs this year, which is an impressive feat for a player with two months of Hi-A experience. As for Alex Kirilloff, while ZiPS doesn’t see him ever being a high-OBP player when his batting average inevitably comes down, his prime projections check in with just over a .280 batting average, with slugging percentages peeking just over the .500 mark.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nelson Cruz R 38 DH 131 474 65 126 19 1 30 101 50 113 1 0
Max Kepler L 26 RF 147 516 74 127 31 5 20 70 61 107 6 4
Eddie Rosario L 27 LF 148 565 84 156 30 5 23 78 30 117 9 5
Willians Astudillo R 27 C 102 364 40 102 18 1 15 49 9 18 4 4
Jonathan Schoop R 27 2B 150 561 74 146 31 1 25 90 26 140 1 1
Byron Buxton R 25 CF 116 403 54 95 18 5 12 45 28 136 17 2
Miguel Sano R 26 3B 112 411 60 93 19 1 25 70 56 176 1 0
C.J. Cron R 29 1B 135 475 59 123 27 2 24 80 32 119 2 2
Logan Forsythe R 32 2B 121 401 51 98 20 1 8 39 51 102 4 2
Jorge Polanco B 25 SS 118 456 54 120 23 5 10 61 35 89 10 6
Nick Gordon L 23 SS 138 561 61 138 25 6 7 50 33 132 16 6
Jake Cave L 26 CF 132 486 67 120 23 4 17 63 37 160 5 3
Jason Castro L 32 C 89 280 32 58 14 1 7 28 35 99 0 0
Logan Morrison L 31 1B 113 374 50 87 17 1 20 59 47 98 3 1
Taylor Motter R 29 3B 110 384 47 88 21 1 13 48 36 90 13 6
Luis Arraez L 22 2B 119 455 49 122 19 4 4 37 27 60 3 4
Joe Mauer L 36 1B 121 459 56 124 25 2 6 47 52 85 1 1
Tyler Austin R 27 1B 109 385 51 89 21 2 21 64 35 144 3 2
Mitch Garver R 28 C 106 356 43 83 21 2 8 46 37 99 1 1
Lucas Duda L 33 1B 103 338 40 76 18 0 18 57 39 115 1 0
LaMonte Wade L 25 LF 113 424 54 104 14 3 9 41 51 86 8 3
Royce Lewis R 20 SS 118 481 57 112 21 3 12 50 32 109 19 8
Alex Kirilloff L 21 RF 128 511 62 138 30 3 17 68 27 110 3 3
Ehire Adrianza B 29 SS 106 296 36 72 16 1 5 34 23 66 5 2
Wynston Sawyer R 27 C 66 223 27 52 11 0 5 22 23 62 2 2
Dean Anna L 32 2B 115 412 49 100 16 2 2 31 41 65 5 5
Ronald Torreyes R 26 2B 91 273 28 72 13 2 1 21 12 36 1 1
Zach Granite L 26 CF 105 391 45 97 13 3 3 28 29 56 18 8
Brian Schales R 23 3B 129 438 49 98 20 3 9 47 44 128 3 3
Michael Reed R 26 CF 107 357 49 77 16 1 10 37 54 136 10 5
Tomas Telis B 28 C 104 346 40 90 14 2 4 35 20 45 3 2
Brian Navarreto R 24 C 98 348 30 72 15 0 4 25 12 76 0 1
Jermaine Curtis R 31 3B 67 223 27 49 9 0 3 18 27 54 3 1
Jeremy Hazelbaker L 31 CF 102 296 36 61 13 3 10 35 28 117 10 2
Jordan Gore B 24 SS 101 344 36 76 11 2 3 25 29 104 4 2
Brent Rooker R 24 1B 125 489 62 110 24 2 21 67 41 167 4 2
Leonardo Reginatto R 29 3B 93 329 31 76 13 1 3 26 18 76 4 4
Luke Raley L 24 1B 118 475 59 107 17 7 12 50 30 166 4 1
Drew Maggi R 30 2B 84 286 29 63 12 1 2 20 22 77 11 6
Wilin Rosario R 30 1B 114 419 50 104 22 1 16 63 23 104 5 3
Andy Wilkins L 30 1B 80 276 34 56 13 1 13 40 27 96 2 0
Randy Cesar R 24 3B 115 449 46 106 18 1 7 40 27 144 2 2
Jordany Valdespin L 31 2B 68 227 25 55 9 2 3 19 16 43 7 4
Adam Rosales R 36 2B 117 324 36 67 15 1 9 36 24 100 2 3
Mike Olt R 30 3B 84 290 33 56 12 0 10 31 32 117 0 0
Jaylin Davis R 24 RF 118 445 47 93 18 2 12 45 30 169 6 3
Zander Wiel R 26 1B 122 469 52 103 22 3 12 51 38 134 5 2
Edgar Corcino B 27 RF 105 394 41 94 17 3 7 37 26 94 3 2
Jordan Pacheco R 33 C 58 147 12 29 6 0 1 9 10 33 0 0

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Nelson Cruz 540 .266 .348 .500 127 .234 .290 6.4 0 2.6 Joe Adcock
Max Kepler 586 .246 .328 .442 107 .196 .275 5.2 6 2.2 Robin Jennings
Eddie Rosario 602 .276 .310 .469 108 .193 .313 5.4 7 2.2 Rondell White
Willians Astudillo 385 .280 .307 .459 104 .179 .263 5.2 3 2.0 Bengie Molina
Jonathan Schoop 601 .260 .300 .453 101 .193 .306 4.9 0 2.0 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Byron Buxton 440 .236 .291 .395 84 .159 .325 4.4 11 1.9 Reggie Sanders
Miguel Sano 471 .226 .321 .460 109 .234 .324 5.2 -3 1.7 Mark Reynolds
C.J. Cron 523 .259 .317 .476 111 .217 .298 5.5 0 1.5 Larry Sheets
Logan Forsythe 461 .244 .336 .359 90 .115 .309 4.3 1 1.2 Dick Green
Jorge Polanco 501 .263 .316 .401 93 .138 .308 4.6 -4 1.1 Kurt Stillwell
Nick Gordon 603 .246 .292 .349 74 .103 .310 3.7 6 1.0 Carlos Garcia
Jake Cave 533 .247 .303 .416 93 .169 .333 4.5 -2 1.0 LaVel Freeman
Jason Castro 319 .207 .299 .339 73 .132 .293 3.5 6 1.0 Jerry Goff
Logan Morrison 428 .233 .325 .444 106 .211 .262 5.1 -1 1.0 Carmelo Martinez
Taylor Motter 425 .229 .296 .391 85 .161 .267 4.1 3 0.9 Tom Brookens
Luis Arraez 493 .268 .309 .354 80 .086 .302 3.9 5 0.8 Martin Prado
Joe Mauer 517 .270 .345 .373 96 .102 .321 4.7 3 0.8 Mike Hargrove
Tyler Austin 426 .231 .298 .460 102 .229 .309 4.8 0 0.7 Jason Dubois
Mitch Garver 398 .233 .307 .371 83 .138 .301 4.0 -2 0.7 Chad Moeller
Lucas Duda 387 .225 .315 .438 102 .213 .283 4.8 0 0.7 Graham Koonce
LaMonte Wade 486 .245 .330 .356 87 .111 .289 4.3 2 0.5 Trevor Penn
Royce Lewis 522 .233 .286 .364 75 .131 .278 3.7 0 0.5 Asdrubal Cabrera
Alex Kirilloff 545 .270 .306 .440 100 .170 .315 4.9 -5 0.4 Jose Guillen
Ehire Adrianza 328 .243 .299 .355 77 .111 .298 3.8 -1 0.3 Doug Strange
Wynston Sawyer 253 .233 .316 .350 81 .117 .301 3.8 -3 0.2 Bob Henley
Dean Anna 468 .243 .320 .306 72 .063 .284 3.4 2 0.2 Don Blasingame
Ronald Torreyes 291 .264 .294 .337 71 .073 .301 3.6 3 0.2 Mario Diaz
Zach Granite 428 .248 .302 .320 70 .072 .283 3.5 3 0.1 Leo Garcia
Brian Schales 491 .224 .300 .345 75 .121 .296 3.5 0 0.1 Pedro Castellano
Michael Reed 417 .216 .321 .350 83 .134 .318 3.9 -6 0.0 Todd Self
Tomas Telis 373 .260 .305 .347 77 .087 .290 3.8 -4 0.0 Kirt Manwaring
Brian Navarreto 368 .207 .243 .284 43 .078 .254 2.3 11 0.0 Alex Sutherland
Jermaine Curtis 261 .220 .323 .300 72 .081 .277 3.4 -1 -0.1 Rico Rossy
Jeremy Hazelbaker 328 .206 .278 .372 75 .166 .302 3.7 -2 -0.1 Dewayne Wise
Jordan Gore 380 .221 .281 .291 56 .070 .308 2.8 3 -0.2 Adam Haley
Brent Rooker 537 .225 .291 .411 88 .186 .296 4.2 -4 -0.4 Kevin Eberwein
Leonardo Reginatto 356 .231 .275 .304 58 .073 .292 2.8 4 -0.4 Steve Sisco
Luke Raley 525 .225 .291 .366 77 .141 .320 3.8 1 -0.4 Otis Green
Drew Maggi 316 .220 .284 .290 57 .070 .295 2.8 1 -0.5 Ray Holbert
Wilin Rosario 451 .248 .295 .420 91 .172 .294 4.4 -6 -0.5 Tom Nevers
Andy Wilkins 308 .203 .276 .399 80 .196 .257 3.8 -2 -0.5 Jay Gainer
Randy Cesar 480 .236 .279 .327 64 .091 .332 3.2 1 -0.5 Jack Hannahan
Jordany Valdespin 249 .242 .300 .339 74 .097 .287 3.6 -7 -0.6 Luis Maza
Adam Rosales 357 .207 .265 .343 64 .136 .270 3.0 -1 -0.7 Shane Halter
Mike Olt 327 .193 .276 .338 66 .145 .282 3.1 -4 -0.7 Jose Santos
Jaylin Davis 483 .209 .266 .339 63 .130 .307 3.1 4 -0.9 Daniel Carte
Zander Wiel 516 .220 .283 .356 72 .136 .282 3.5 0 -1.0 Brian Turner
Edgar Corcino 426 .239 .287 .350 72 .112 .297 3.5 -3 -1.0 Ed Yacopino
Jordan Pacheco 161 .197 .255 .259 41 .061 .248 2.2 -6 -1.0 Chad Moeller

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jose Berrios R 25 14 10 3.93 32 32 183.3 169 80 22 59 181
Kyle Gibson R 31 11 10 4.48 29 29 170.7 178 85 22 65 135
Jake Odorizzi R 29 9 8 4.45 30 30 153.7 148 76 22 59 136
Zack Littell R 23 9 8 4.57 30 22 141.7 152 72 17 53 109
Martin Perez L 28 8 7 4.58 26 22 129.7 144 66 13 45 79
Fernando Romero R 24 8 7 4.64 25 22 132.0 143 68 16 47 91
Ervin Santana R 36 7 7 4.61 21 21 121.0 124 62 19 36 90
Lewis Thorpe L 23 7 7 4.67 24 23 113.7 119 59 17 42 102
Taylor Rogers L 28 3 2 3.22 70 0 67.0 61 24 5 19 63
Kohl Stewart R 24 6 6 4.80 27 22 131.3 142 70 14 58 86
Adalberto Mejia L 26 6 6 4.41 22 20 100.0 106 49 12 35 77
Stephen Gonsalves L 24 9 9 4.84 28 24 124.7 126 67 13 72 104
Michael Pineda R 30 5 4 4.50 15 15 80.0 88 40 12 21 72
Devin Smeltzer L 23 6 6 4.78 31 17 107.3 124 57 17 28 79
Andrew Vasquez L 25 3 2 3.68 46 1 66.0 57 27 6 31 76
D.J. Baxendale R 28 3 3 4.63 32 11 79.7 89 41 10 24 52
Gabriel Moya L 24 3 3 4.23 64 8 76.7 74 36 10 27 71
Sean Poppen R 25 7 7 4.95 25 21 116.3 130 64 16 42 80
Trevor Hildenberger R 28 5 4 4.00 65 0 69.7 69 31 9 19 64
Cody Stashak R 25 3 3 4.76 30 9 73.7 78 39 11 25 60
Blake Parker R 34 2 1 3.88 61 0 58.0 53 25 8 20 62
Addison Reed R 30 4 3 3.94 63 0 61.7 64 27 7 16 50
Trevor May R 29 3 2 3.86 49 0 44.3 41 19 5 19 48
Tyler Duffey R 28 5 5 4.31 57 1 79.3 82 38 10 23 68
Ryne Harper R 30 3 3 3.95 37 0 57.0 56 25 7 17 55
Randy LeBlanc R 27 6 6 5.18 19 14 83.3 95 48 10 31 47
Tyler Wells R 24 7 8 5.29 22 21 102.0 110 60 18 39 83
Mike Morin R 28 3 3 4.37 48 2 57.7 62 28 7 15 45
Justin Nicolino L 27 6 8 5.26 27 24 131.7 164 77 22 39 71
Adam Bray R 26 3 3 5.03 24 9 77.0 93 43 15 18 55
Kevin Comer R 26 3 3 4.58 47 1 57.0 59 29 7 27 50
Matt Belisle R 39 1 1 4.40 43 0 45.0 47 22 6 12 34
Alan Busenitz R 28 4 4 4.79 49 2 67.7 73 36 10 24 56
Jake Reed R 26 2 2 4.74 36 1 49.3 49 26 6 24 41
Preston Guilmet R 31 1 1 4.66 36 1 46.3 48 24 8 13 43
Ryan Eades R 27 4 4 5.38 31 10 80.3 88 48 12 34 59
Dario Alvarez L 30 2 2 4.58 38 0 37.3 36 19 5 21 39
Austin D. Adams R 32 2 2 4.91 30 1 33.0 35 18 4 17 27
Dan Camarena L 26 6 8 5.62 24 23 117.0 140 73 20 46 74
Luke Bard R 28 3 3 4.73 40 0 59.0 60 31 8 27 54
Jorge Alcala R 23 6 8 5.62 24 17 91.3 99 57 14 59 71
Chris Gimenez R 36 0 0 9.00 4 0 4.0 6 4 2 0 1
Pat Dean L 30 5 7 5.76 18 15 89.0 115 57 15 25 41
Dusten Knight R 28 3 3 5.02 35 1 57.3 62 32 10 24 49
Matt Magill R 29 3 3 4.94 45 0 58.3 59 32 10 28 56
Tim Collins L 29 3 3 5.24 59 0 44.7 45 26 6 29 42
Chase De Jong R 25 7 9 5.76 29 27 148.3 178 95 29 53 89
Tyler Jay L 25 5 6 5.66 34 8 76.3 90 48 13 31 46
Zack Weiss R 27 3 4 5.54 33 1 37.3 39 23 7 22 35
Jeff Ames R 28 2 3 6.17 38 1 46.7 48 32 9 36 47

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Berrios 778 8.89 2.90 1.08 .292 111 90 3.91 3.2 Jack Morris
Kyle Gibson 747 7.12 3.43 1.16 .300 98 103 4.47 2.0 Omar Olivares
Jake Odorizzi 661 7.97 3.46 1.29 .286 98 102 4.47 1.9 Roger Bailey
Zack Littell 628 6.92 3.37 1.08 .307 96 105 4.48 1.5 Aaron Cook
Martin Perez 570 5.48 3.12 0.90 .305 95 105 4.35 1.4 Jim O’Toole
Fernando Romero 586 6.20 3.20 1.09 .301 94 106 4.64 1.3 Cha-Seung Baek
Ervin Santana 519 6.69 2.68 1.41 .285 95 105 4.72 1.3 Bob Forsch
Lewis Thorpe 500 8.08 3.33 1.35 .306 94 107 4.57 1.1 Danny Borrell
Taylor Rogers 279 8.46 2.55 0.67 .296 136 74 3.22 1.1 Sparky Lyle
Kohl Stewart 592 5.89 3.97 0.96 .300 91 110 4.73 1.1 Rick Berg
Adalberto Mejia 438 6.93 3.15 1.08 .304 96 104 4.37 1.1 Scott Sauerbeck
Stephen Gonsalves 569 7.51 5.20 0.94 .302 90 111 4.71 1.0 Jimmy Anderson
Michael Pineda 345 8.10 2.36 1.35 .319 97 103 4.16 1.0 Brian Tollberg
Devin Smeltzer 472 6.62 2.35 1.43 .313 91 109 4.69 0.8 Kevin Pickford
Andrew Vasquez 287 10.36 4.23 0.82 .302 119 84 3.67 0.8 Buzz Oliver
D.J. Baxendale 350 5.87 2.71 1.13 .304 94 106 4.53 0.6 Bill Fischer
Gabriel Moya 329 8.33 3.17 1.17 .294 100 100 4.17 0.6 Pat Clements
Sean Poppen 519 6.19 3.25 1.24 .305 86 117 4.83 0.6 Michael Macdonald
Trevor Hildenberger 296 8.27 2.45 1.16 .300 109 92 3.98 0.5 Jeff Tam
Cody Stashak 323 7.33 3.05 1.34 .300 92 109 4.64 0.5 Steve Parris
Blake Parker 246 9.62 3.10 1.24 .294 109 92 3.99 0.4 Steve Reed
Addison Reed 261 7.30 2.34 1.02 .305 107 93 3.83 0.4 Kent Tekulve
Trevor May 192 9.74 3.86 1.02 .305 113 88 3.87 0.4 Jason Bulger
Tyler Duffey 340 7.71 2.61 1.13 .305 101 99 4.06 0.4 Jose Santiago
Ryne Harper 243 8.68 2.68 1.11 .304 107 93 3.87 0.3 Terry Leach
Randy LeBlanc 374 5.08 3.35 1.08 .302 84 119 4.88 0.3 Brian Allard
Tyler Wells 453 7.32 3.44 1.59 .300 83 121 5.14 0.3 Carlos Crawford
Mike Morin 249 7.02 2.34 1.09 .307 100 100 4.10 0.3 Bill Fischer
Justin Nicolino 593 4.85 2.67 1.50 .312 80 124 5.27 0.2 Wade Blasingame
Adam Bray 341 6.43 2.10 1.75 .315 84 119 5.15 0.2 Dick Marlowe
Kevin Comer 256 7.89 4.26 1.11 .308 95 105 4.57 0.1 Mike Gardner
Matt Belisle 193 6.80 2.40 1.20 .295 96 104 4.31 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck
Alan Busenitz 298 7.45 3.19 1.33 .307 91 110 4.61 0.0 Rob Marquez
Jake Reed 219 7.48 4.38 1.09 .295 92 108 4.65 0.0 Ken Wright
Preston Guilmet 199 8.35 2.53 1.55 .301 91 110 4.51 0.0 Dan Giese
Ryan Eades 362 6.61 3.81 1.34 .302 81 123 5.08 0.0 Preston Larrison
Dario Alvarez 169 9.40 5.06 1.21 .304 92 108 4.65 0.0 Arnold Earley
Austin D. Adams 150 7.36 4.64 1.09 .307 89 112 4.73 0.0 Jerry Johnson
Dan Camarena 534 5.69 3.54 1.54 .309 78 128 5.44 0.0 Rich Rundles
Luke Bard 264 8.24 4.12 1.22 .304 92 108 4.66 -0.1 Sean Green
Jorge Alcala 430 7.00 5.81 1.38 .302 78 128 5.69 -0.1 Edwin Morel
Chris Gimenez 18 2.25 0.00 4.50 .267 49 206 9.15 -0.2 John Gardner
Pat Dean 402 4.15 2.53 1.52 .314 76 132 5.36 -0.2 Dave Gassner
Dusten Knight 257 7.69 3.77 1.57 .304 84 119 5.12 -0.2 John Koronka
Matt Magill 261 8.64 4.32 1.54 .299 86 117 5.05 -0.3 Kevin Gryboski
Tim Collins 207 8.46 5.84 1.21 .305 83 120 5.10 -0.3 Arnold Earley
Chase De Jong 671 5.40 3.22 1.76 .302 76 132 5.71 -0.3 Mark Ratekin
Tyler Jay 350 5.42 3.66 1.53 .303 77 129 5.61 -0.3 Wade Blasingame
Zack Weiss 172 8.44 5.30 1.69 .302 76 131 5.64 -0.4 Ryan Baker
Jeff Ames 224 9.06 6.94 1.74 .302 71 141 6.15 -0.7 Bart Evans

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


2019 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals.

Batters

When I saw the Washington Nationals towards the end of the randomly generated ZiPS order back around Thanksgiving, I thought to myself, “There’s no way that Bryce Harper appears in those projections unless he re-signs.” But here we are! Even more surprising is the degree to which ZiPS has fallen in love with Juan Soto, leaving Bryce Harper as merely the second-ranked player on the Nationals’ list. Young players don’t get the Ken Griffey Jr. offensive comp very often. In fact, I think Soto is the first player to get Jr. as his top comp at this early an age. Comps to Griffey in his thirties tend to be more common (Edwin Encarnacion got him as his No. 3 comp).

What you have here is a lineup in which the cream is very…uh…creamy. Soto’s projections rank him the No. 1 left fielder in baseball among the teams whose projections have gone live and I don’t think I’m giving any spoilers away by saying that neither Kyle Schwarber or Brett Gardner will have better projections. Anthony Rendon won’t drop below fifth among third baseman and there’s nobody left to push Trea Turner below the bronze at shortstop. That give the Nationals three players with a mean projection that makes them legitimate stars. The supporting cast is pretty good, too: Eaton’s at the back of the top 10 if he can stay healthy, ZiPS projects a decent bounce back campaign from Brian Dozier, and catcher and first base don’t drag the team down. Victor Robles isn’t projected to make as big a splash as Juan Soto, but is still soothsayed as an above average center fielder as a rookie.

Pitchers

The pitching bears a resemblance with the lineup in that the highs here are very high. You could do a lot worse than your top three starters having Greg MadduxBret SaberhagenAndy Pettitte as a set of comps. And as weird as it sounds, ZiPS may even be slightly underrating Patrick Corbin; if I used a beta version of ZiPS that is probably a year away from going live, Corbin’s 3.63 ERA would drop to 3.42 and he’d go from the 16th pitcher ranked so far to the 12th. The difference is the full implementation of plate discipline data, which shows Corbin was the second-hardest starting pitcher (min. 100 innings) to make contact against in 2018. It’s easy to cruise on your team’s defense or a lucky BABIP; it’s much harder to cruise by fooling batters, and Corbin doesn’t use a novel trick that might cause him to have a short shelf life.

After the top three starters, ZiPS is unimpressed with Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson. ZiPS would actually slightly prefer that the Nats use Erick Fedde and Joe Ross in those slots, but none of them are all that exciting. Ross was at one point, and he’s young enough to still recover, but his career was waylaid considerably by injury.

The bullpen is pretty much the same story. After Sean Doolittle (who has the 7th best projected ERA+ in baseball so far, though Yankees ‘pen is still to come) and Trevor Rosenthal, there’s a whole lot of meh going on. The only relief pitcher who really makes the computer feel a little flush is Austin Adams (there are two Austin Adami), a reliever with the classic mid 90s-fastball/slider combo and another classic trait of many hard-throwing minor league relievers: frequent control issues. Last year, Adams made real progress with his control, getting his walk rate under four in Triple-A while striking out 15 batters per nine innings, though Washington showed little interest in seeing what Adams can do. Washington never really seemed to have much faith in Felipe Vazquez or Blake Treinen either. One would think they’d have learned their lessons about not being more curious about hard-throwing strikeout machine relievers with command issues.

Bench and Prospects

ZiPS has the Nationals with the most WAR in the NL East, but does not similarly project them to be the first-place team. Simply put, ZiPS is unimpressed with team’s depth overall. This is due both to the reserves and the back of the bullpen, but also a minor league system that is likely to provide little in the way of additional reinforcements. Now, Robles is still technically a prospect, but he’s already considered here as a starter, not a reinforcement, and of the center field time split in the depth chart WARtoon, it’s Robles who makes up the bulk of the value rather than Michael Taylor.

The one exception is Carter Kieboom, a player who ZiPS thinks could backstop an injured infielder quite adequately, and certainly be an upgrade from Wilmer Difo, who would be the likely replacement if injury strikes a Turner or a Rendon (something which has happened before). Long-term, ZiPS projects a lot of power upside from Kieboom, thinking he’ll get into the twenties in home runs a year fairly easily, with peak WARs that suggest multiple All-Star appearances.

After that, there’s very little in short-term value. The next-best position player in the minors for the Nats, at least in terms of how ZiPS views 2019, is catcher Tres Barrera, projected to hit .228/.287/.355 for a 0.3 WAR in just under 300 plate appearances (which will almost certainly all be in the majors in 2019). And really, if a catcher was injured, whichever of Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes is healthy is likely to simply take over most of the additional playing time.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 20 LF 153 558 106 165 31 4 36 112 98 130 8 4
Bryce Harper L 26 RF 149 516 104 140 30 1 35 109 119 153 14 5
Trea Turner R 26 SS 156 621 96 171 30 9 19 75 56 132 45 9
Anthony Rendon R 29 3B 140 522 80 147 38 2 21 88 62 90 5 2
Adam Eaton L 30 RF 119 452 71 133 24 6 9 48 45 87 11 4
Brian Dozier R 32 2B 142 552 87 138 32 4 25 83 61 127 12 4
Victor Robles R 22 CF 122 454 57 117 25 6 10 53 36 95 28 12
Carter Kieboom R 21 SS 120 482 64 116 24 1 15 56 46 125 7 3
Matt Adams L 30 1B 118 305 39 77 16 0 18 62 25 78 0 0
Kurt Suzuki R 35 C 95 316 36 83 18 0 9 49 19 43 0 0
Yan Gomes R 31 C 103 361 42 86 19 0 13 49 20 102 0 0
Wilmer Difo B 27 2B 138 423 55 105 17 5 7 40 33 91 14 4
Michael A. Taylor R 28 CF 124 381 46 89 19 2 11 40 30 133 22 6
Ryan Zimmerman R 34 1B 104 370 51 96 21 1 17 66 32 86 2 1
Matt Wieters B 33 C 96 320 32 76 14 0 9 43 31 69 0 0
Matt Reynolds R 28 SS 106 338 41 78 19 3 5 33 31 95 4 2
Moises Sierra R 30 RF 100 334 39 85 16 1 8 38 25 78 6 4
Tres Barrera R 24 C 69 259 28 59 13 1 6 25 17 66 2 0
Spencer Kieboom R 28 C 77 244 28 56 12 0 4 24 26 50 0 0
Adrian Sanchez B 28 SS 108 348 35 86 19 2 4 33 16 64 8 5
Howie Kendrick R 35 2B 92 331 41 92 18 2 6 34 22 67 6 3
Jacob Wilson R 28 3B 112 394 46 89 20 1 10 45 34 102 2 2
Pedro Severino R 25 C 100 324 32 75 13 1 7 33 20 70 2 1
Miguel Montero L 35 C 78 218 24 48 7 0 7 29 30 64 1 0
Jason Martinson R 30 3B 95 348 39 65 12 2 14 42 27 167 4 3
Jake Noll R 25 3B 129 491 54 118 17 3 10 50 24 103 6 3
Luis Sardinas B 26 SS 103 348 38 90 13 2 5 33 16 63 6 4
Austin Davidson L 26 1B 106 355 43 84 18 3 8 39 34 79 5 4
Brandon Snyder R 32 3B 108 376 47 84 19 2 14 50 31 141 3 1
Irving Falu B 36 2B 100 361 37 91 14 2 4 34 24 39 7 5
Raudy Read R 25 C 91 342 36 82 19 2 7 37 18 76 2 1
Hunter Jones R 27 CF 114 422 45 97 15 5 6 38 31 105 12 5
Drew Ward L 24 1B 118 408 51 88 19 2 11 46 50 153 1 2
Matt Hague R 33 1B 92 341 39 87 18 0 6 34 34 61 2 1
Alec Keller L 27 LF 98 369 39 94 15 4 2 30 22 76 5 4
Yadiel Hernandez L 31 LF 117 411 50 101 16 1 12 47 42 106 3 2
Bengie Gonzalez R 29 SS 107 361 36 81 16 2 3 28 28 76 7 4
Andrew Stevenson L 25 CF 133 445 49 105 14 4 5 38 33 117 17 9
Jose Marmolejos L 26 1B 127 486 55 118 25 3 10 53 37 121 0 1
Tyler Goeddel R 26 LF 99 321 36 73 12 3 5 31 28 87 8 3
Michael Almanzar R 28 3B 102 362 34 82 18 1 7 36 17 98 0 1
Chris Dominguez R 32 1B 88 293 32 67 14 1 10 35 11 98 6 3
Khayyan Norfork R 30 2B 75 220 22 48 8 0 2 16 16 63 3 1
Taylor Gushue B 25 C 96 349 36 70 14 1 9 38 27 110 0 1
Zach Collier L 28 RF 95 305 32 60 13 4 5 29 28 117 4 4
Chuck Taylor B 25 LF 124 486 54 118 21 3 5 44 43 101 3 4
Dan Gamache L 28 2B 117 396 41 90 17 1 5 34 36 117 1 4
Rafael Bautista R 26 CF 97 361 37 85 9 3 2 23 20 79 19 6
Telmito Agustin L 22 LF 105 370 40 84 15 3 8 36 21 105 9 6
Adam Brett Walker R 27 LF 93 336 42 62 14 2 18 55 28 169 4 1
Osvaldo Abreu R 25 SS 119 430 45 89 18 3 7 38 33 136 7 6

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Juan Soto 658 .296 .400 .559 149 .263 .329 8.6 -6 5.1 Ken Griffey
Bryce Harper 646 .271 .407 .537 146 .266 .320 8.2 -4 4.7 Elbie Fletcher
Trea Turner 685 .275 .337 .444 103 .169 .323 6.1 3 4.4 Rafael Furcal
Anthony Rendon 597 .282 .360 .483 119 .201 .307 6.6 6 4.4 Davey Johnson
Adam Eaton 513 .294 .371 .434 111 .139 .348 6.2 7 3.0 Pat Kelly
Brian Dozier 623 .250 .329 .458 104 .208 .283 5.5 -2 2.8 Jose Valentin
Victor Robles 510 .258 .329 .405 92 .148 .307 5.0 7 2.4 Milton Bradley
Carter Kieboom 534 .241 .311 .388 83 .147 .295 4.3 0 1.5 Michael Young
Matt Adams 334 .252 .311 .482 104 .230 .282 5.4 5 1.3 Daryle Ward
Kurt Suzuki 350 .263 .321 .405 89 .142 .280 4.8 -1 1.2 Mike Lieberthal
Yan Gomes 391 .238 .289 .399 79 .161 .297 4.1 3 1.1 Nelson Santovenia
Wilmer Difo 464 .248 .304 .362 74 .113 .302 4.1 6 1.0 Derek Wathan
Michael A. Taylor 414 .234 .291 .381 75 .147 .329 4.2 3 0.8 Damon Mashore
Ryan Zimmerman 410 .259 .320 .459 102 .200 .296 5.4 -2 0.8 Hubie Brooks
Matt Wieters 357 .238 .306 .366 76 .128 .277 4.0 -1 0.6 Scott Servais
Matt Reynolds 375 .231 .299 .349 70 .118 .307 3.7 1 0.5 Edgar Gonzalez
Moises Sierra 366 .254 .314 .380 82 .126 .310 4.3 3 0.4 Kevin Romine
Tres Barrera 283 .228 .287 .355 68 .127 .283 3.6 0 0.3 David Duff
Spencer Kieboom 272 .230 .305 .328 67 .098 .274 3.5 0 0.3 Bill Dobrolsky
Adrian Sanchez 371 .247 .283 .348 65 .101 .293 3.5 2 0.2 Greg Fulton
Howie Kendrick 359 .278 .329 .399 90 .121 .333 4.9 -8 0.2 Dave Concepcion
Jacob Wilson 442 .226 .293 .358 70 .132 .280 3.6 1 0.1 Craig Walck
Pedro Severino 350 .231 .281 .343 63 .111 .275 3.4 0 0.1 Brandon Marsters
Miguel Montero 253 .220 .320 .349 76 .128 .279 3.9 -5 0.0 Chad Kreuter
Jason Martinson 383 .187 .255 .353 58 .167 .305 2.9 6 0.0 Sean Mcnally
Jake Noll 527 .240 .281 .348 65 .108 .286 3.5 4 0.0 Pat Osborn
Luis Sardinas 372 .259 .294 .351 69 .092 .304 3.7 -2 0.0 Tom Veryzer
Austin Davidson 398 .237 .310 .372 78 .135 .284 4.0 2 0.0 Matt Bowser
Brandon Snyder 414 .223 .287 .396 77 .173 .317 4.0 -5 0.0 Steve Scarsone
Irving Falu 391 .252 .299 .335 67 .083 .274 3.5 1 0.0 Casey Candaele
Raudy Read 364 .240 .280 .368 69 .129 .290 3.7 -4 0.0 Neil Wilson
Hunter Jones 466 .230 .292 .332 64 .102 .293 3.4 1 -0.1 Choo Freeman
Drew Ward 464 .216 .306 .353 73 .137 .316 3.6 3 -0.2 Lucas Duda
Matt Hague 382 .255 .325 .361 80 .106 .296 4.2 -2 -0.2 Royce Huffman
Alec Keller 397 .255 .299 .333 66 .079 .316 3.5 5 -0.2 Raul Tovar
Yadiel Hernandez 456 .246 .316 .377 82 .131 .304 4.2 -4 -0.3 Stu Pederson
Bengie Gonzalez 395 .224 .280 .305 54 .080 .277 2.9 1 -0.4 Keith Johns
Andrew Stevenson 486 .236 .292 .319 61 .083 .310 3.3 0 -0.4 Keiunta Span
Jose Marmolejos 531 .243 .298 .368 74 .126 .304 3.9 1 -0.4 Juan Tejeda
Tyler Goeddel 357 .227 .299 .330 65 .103 .297 3.5 0 -0.5 Casey Craig
Michael Almanzar 385 .227 .265 .340 58 .113 .292 3.1 2 -0.5 Colin Dixon
Chris Dominguez 312 .229 .266 .386 69 .157 .308 3.6 1 -0.5 Darrell Whitmore
Khayyan Norfork 243 .218 .282 .282 49 .064 .297 2.8 0 -0.5 Gary Green
Taylor Gushue 383 .201 .261 .324 53 .123 .265 2.8 -2 -0.6 Alan Probst
Zach Collier 339 .197 .272 .315 54 .118 .301 2.7 4 -0.7 Kevin Koslofski
Chuck Taylor 537 .243 .309 .329 68 .086 .297 3.5 0 -0.7 Scott Melvin
Dan Gamache 438 .227 .295 .313 61 .086 .310 3.0 -3 -0.8 John Hotchkiss
Rafael Bautista 391 .235 .281 .294 52 .058 .296 3.1 -3 -0.9 Fernando Ramsey
Telmito Agustin 399 .227 .273 .349 62 .122 .296 3.2 -1 -1.1 Lonnie Maclin
Adam Brett Walker 370 .185 .249 .399 66 .214 .295 3.3 -6 -1.1 Kirk Asche
Osvaldo Abreu 472 .207 .269 .312 52 .105 .286 2.7 -5 -1.2 Erick Monzon

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Max Scherzer R 34 15 7 2.98 30 30 193.3 148 64 23 50 248
Patrick Corbin L 29 12 8 3.63 32 31 181.0 171 73 21 50 195
Stephen Strasburg R 30 12 7 3.34 25 25 145.3 127 54 16 38 165
Erick Fedde R 26 6 6 4.50 25 22 112.0 118 56 14 39 95
Sean Doolittle L 32 3 1 2.95 43 0 39.7 31 13 6 7 51
Joe Ross R 26 6 5 4.53 18 18 89.3 96 45 13 27 69
Jeremy Hellickson R 32 7 7 4.74 22 22 114.0 120 60 19 31 80
Anibal Sanchez R 35 6 7 4.93 25 22 118.7 121 65 18 40 115
Austin Voth R 27 7 8 4.98 26 24 124.7 133 69 19 52 99
Logan Darnell L 30 6 7 5.09 22 18 99.0 117 56 15 33 58
Austin L. Adams R 28 3 2 3.83 43 0 51.7 40 22 4 37 68
Austen Williams R 26 6 6 4.78 32 12 92.3 98 49 14 33 79
Trevor Rosenthal R 29 3 2 3.48 36 0 33.7 29 13 3 17 46
Justin Miller R 32 5 3 3.86 53 0 56.0 51 24 8 18 62
Tyler Mapes R 27 6 7 5.08 22 19 106.3 123 60 16 35 63
Matt Grace L 30 2 1 3.99 54 1 58.7 61 26 5 18 41
Vidal Nuno L 31 3 3 4.66 33 6 65.7 71 34 13 16 56
Sterling Sharp R 24 8 9 5.21 26 26 133.0 157 77 18 51 74
Andrew Istler R 26 4 4 4.21 42 1 66.3 68 31 7 23 53
Scott Copeland R 31 7 8 5.35 21 21 109.3 124 65 17 50 73
Kyle Barraclough R 29 4 3 4.10 65 0 59.3 49 27 5 40 69
Wander Suero R 27 4 3 4.16 53 0 62.7 63 29 7 22 55
Brady Dragmire R 26 6 7 5.42 29 18 116.3 141 70 18 44 64
Henderson Alvarez R 29 3 3 5.21 10 9 48.3 56 28 7 17 24
Dakota Bacus R 28 3 3 4.82 26 4 56.0 57 30 8 27 48
Koda Glover R 26 3 2 4.32 40 0 41.7 41 20 5 15 38
Aaron Barrett R 31 1 1 4.12 23 0 19.7 18 9 2 10 19
Cesar Vargas R 27 4 5 5.42 25 15 86.3 96 52 13 47 63
Jhon Romero R 24 2 1 4.50 41 0 56.0 55 28 6 29 50
Jordan Mills L 27 3 3 4.66 39 0 48.3 49 25 5 28 41
Jaron Long R 27 7 9 5.57 25 20 124.3 152 77 23 33 68
Joaquin Benoit R 41 3 2 4.68 35 0 32.7 31 17 5 15 28
Sammy Solis L 30 2 2 4.70 57 0 46.0 45 24 7 22 48
Josh Edgin L 32 3 3 4.81 46 0 39.3 38 21 6 22 41
J.J. Hoover R 31 3 3 4.86 54 0 50.0 49 27 8 28 52
David Goforth R 30 3 4 5.37 42 2 58.7 65 35 8 31 41
Kyle McGowin R 27 6 9 5.90 25 23 122.0 137 80 27 48 105
Wil Crowe R 24 6 9 5.83 22 21 100.3 115 65 17 56 74
Tanner Rainey R 26 4 4 5.30 54 0 54.3 47 32 8 46 66
Jimmy Cordero R 27 3 4 5.40 57 0 60.0 62 36 8 40 50
James Bourque R 25 4 5 5.81 31 9 69.7 76 45 13 39 62
John Simms R 27 5 7 5.83 25 15 92.7 105 60 18 41 66
Ronald Pena R 27 2 3 5.55 36 0 47.0 49 29 8 29 43
Roman Mendez R 28 4 5 5.69 41 0 49.0 52 31 10 25 44
Bryan Harper L 29 2 3 6.38 42 0 42.3 48 30 8 31 33
Luis Reyes R 24 6 10 6.62 19 19 89.7 109 66 19 51 55

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer 775 11.54 2.33 1.07 .280 142 70 3.03 5.1 Greg Maddux
Patrick Corbin 756 9.70 2.49 1.04 .309 117 86 3.40 3.4 Andy Pettitte
Stephen Strasburg 597 10.22 2.35 0.99 .298 127 79 3.20 3.2 Bret Saberhagen
Erick Fedde 490 7.63 3.13 1.13 .309 94 106 4.26 1.1 Mike LaCoss
Sean Doolittle 156 11.57 1.59 1.36 .275 149 67 3.15 0.9 Billy Wagner
Joe Ross 388 6.95 2.72 1.31 .302 94 107 4.54 0.9 Mark Knudson
Jeremy Hellickson 490 6.32 2.45 1.50 .285 90 112 4.89 0.8 Glenn Abbott
Anibal Sanchez 512 8.72 3.03 1.37 .307 89 113 4.27 0.8 Rick Helling
Austin Voth 556 7.15 3.75 1.37 .300 85 117 4.94 0.6 Kevin Hodges
Logan Darnell 445 5.27 3.00 1.36 .306 86 116 5.13 0.5 Dave Otto
Austin L. Adams 232 11.85 6.45 0.70 .300 114 87 3.85 0.5 Jim Kern
Austen Williams 406 7.70 3.22 1.36 .305 89 113 4.64 0.4 Doug Potestio
Trevor Rosenthal 147 12.30 4.54 0.80 .329 122 82 3.27 0.4 Ernie Camacho
Justin Miller 235 9.96 2.89 1.29 .297 110 91 3.86 0.4 Bert Roberge
Tyler Mapes 474 5.33 2.96 1.35 .302 84 120 5.08 0.4 Steve Finch
Matt Grace 253 6.29 2.76 0.77 .301 106 94 3.93 0.4 Dave Tomlin
Vidal Nuno 282 7.68 2.19 1.78 .299 94 106 4.89 0.4 Sam Zoldak
Sterling Sharp 605 5.01 3.45 1.22 .307 81 123 5.15 0.3 Jake Joseph
Andrew Istler 289 7.19 3.12 0.95 .302 101 99 4.14 0.3 Adrian Devine
Scott Copeland 499 6.01 4.12 1.40 .303 82 122 5.37 0.3 Dick Fowler
Kyle Barraclough 266 10.47 6.07 0.76 .295 104 97 4.09 0.3 Jack Meyer
Wander Suero 272 7.90 3.16 1.01 .304 102 98 4.09 0.2 Rafael Montalvo
Brady Dragmire 531 4.95 3.40 1.39 .309 81 124 5.38 0.1 Tony Peguero
Henderson Alvarez 216 4.47 3.17 1.30 .295 81 123 5.22 0.1 Stephen Whitmyer
Dakota Bacus 251 7.71 4.34 1.29 .297 88 114 4.90 0.1 Mike Bumstead
Koda Glover 179 8.21 3.24 1.08 .300 98 102 4.04 0.1 Trey Witte
Aaron Barrett 87 8.69 4.58 0.92 .291 103 97 4.22 0.1 Kevin Gryboski
Cesar Vargas 400 6.57 4.90 1.36 .305 81 124 5.46 0.1 Danny Kolb
Jhon Romero 251 8.04 4.66 0.96 .301 94 106 4.47 0.0 Sam Nahem
Jordan Mills 221 7.63 5.21 0.93 .306 94 106 4.72 0.0 Brian Adams
Jaron Long 555 4.92 2.39 1.66 .304 79 127 5.43 0.0 Heath Totten
Joaquin Benoit 143 7.71 4.13 1.38 .277 91 110 4.89 -0.1 Don McMahon
Sammy Solis 204 9.39 4.30 1.37 .304 90 111 4.61 -0.1 Randy Choate
Josh Edgin 178 9.38 5.03 1.37 .302 88 113 4.96 -0.1 Sean Fesh
J.J. Hoover 226 9.36 5.04 1.44 .301 87 115 4.95 -0.2 Mike Cook
David Goforth 270 6.29 4.76 1.23 .305 79 127 5.26 -0.4 Jim Todd
Kyle McGowin 549 7.75 3.54 1.99 .304 74 135 5.66 -0.4 Pete Janicki
Wil Crowe 470 6.64 5.02 1.52 .309 73 137 5.73 -0.5 Chad Paronto
Tanner Rainey 256 10.93 7.62 1.33 .293 80 125 5.34 -0.5 Josh Banks
Jimmy Cordero 281 7.50 6.00 1.20 .300 81 123 5.37 -0.5 Ken Wright
James Bourque 323 8.01 5.04 1.68 .307 73 137 5.65 -0.5 Eulogio Delacruz
John Simms 422 6.41 3.98 1.75 .298 73 137 5.74 -0.5 Wes Wilkerson
Ronald Pena 219 8.23 5.55 1.53 .301 76 131 5.58 -0.5 Rick Greene
Roman Mendez 223 8.08 4.59 1.84 .298 77 130 5.72 -0.6 Mario Ramos
Bryan Harper 206 7.02 6.59 1.70 .305 67 150 6.46 -0.9 Scott Forster
Luis Reyes 427 5.52 5.12 1.91 .303 64 156 6.55 -1.2 Mark Woodyard

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.