Want to build a projection system? There are a lot of things you want to prepare for ahead of time, like fans thinking that you have a secret vendetta against their favorite team. The most practically important thing to know is that you are going to be wrong. Not just occasionally, but all the time. And assuring people afterwards that yes, 10% of players are supposed to fail to even meet their 10th-percentile projection isn’t going to get you off the hook, no matter how technically correct you are. Being wrong, however, is your opportunity to improve your model. Indeed, models learn a lot more from being wrong than being right.

When it comes to projecting the number of wins for a team, it mostly comes down to two big factors: how good the players are and who actually plays. Predicting the future is an incredibly difficult activity, and that is reflected in the variance in the probability “buckets.” ZiPS entered the season highly confident that Paul Skenes was a darn good pitcher, but even with that belief, ZiPS was only 50% sure that his 2026 ERA would fall between 2.37 and 3.20, and only 80% sure that it would land between 1.80 and 3.65. But as hard as it is to project how effective a player will be, that’s still easy compared to predicting who will play. Models can get a general idea of the likelihood of injuries from some specifics, like whether a player has missed a lot of time recently or just had Tommy John surgery. But what they don’t know, and certainly never will, is who will tweak their hamstring next Thursday and be out for the rest of the season, who will suddenly lose their velocity in their Labor Day start and need a UCL repaired, or who will be abducted by giant mutant ants and forced to toil in underground sugar caves.

So, which teams have suffered the most due to injury in 2026? If you ask fans, especially those of underperforming clubs, they’ll tell you that their favorite team has been uniquely put upon by injuries this season. But we’re numbers people here. We can do a bit better than that and see which team’s fans can justify their sad laments about the trials and tribulations of the hometown 26. Read the rest of this entry »

The worst-case scenario for Hunter Greene’s elbow has come to pass. The ace right-hander had Tommy John surgery on Thursday, ending his 2026 season and almost certainly knocking him out for the entire 2027 season, too. This was Greene’s second elbow procedure this season; a previous arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies delayed his seasonal debut until Independence Day. Greene’s 2026 season wraps up with a 6.83 ERA, but a better 3.55 FIP over 27 2/3 innings in five starts. This is a full Tommy John revision — Greene previously had Tommy John surgery in 2019 — and not the internal brace procedure that tends to have a quicker recovery.

Suffice it to say, this is a major blow for both Greene and the Cincinnati Reds. For Greene, it’s the latest (and scariest) injury setback in a professional career that has never seen him throw enough innings to qualify for an ERA title. There comes a point at which one starts to wonder if he has crossed the proverbial Rubicon, the point where teams now can’t realistically tell themselves that they can keep him healthy as a starting pitcher. His fastball-splitter-slider repertoire would almost certainly play nicely in relief, though he’ll be hard-pressed to make the same impact as a closer as he could as a legitimate frontline starter. Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline having come and gone, we’ve officially entered the homestretch of the 2026 season. And while teams surely want to avoid tempting the fury of the fates by assuming they’re postseason-bound, they’d be lying if they said they weren’t thinking about October baseball at least a little bit. And why shouldn’t they? Winning the World Series is the ultimate goal, and many of the league’s playoff-relevant teams made deadline moves for the express purpose of improving their postseason chances.

Before you set out on a vacation, it’s natural, even prudent, to contemplate your trip, though it might mean making plans for a destination you never reach. If you’re heading to the beach, you’re likely going to think about the sun and the sand, even though there’s always a chance the alternator in your 1988 Ford Tempo dies on U.S. Route 50 near Easton, Maryland, forcing you to call your friend Alan on your janky 1990s Motorola “car phone,” only for him to gormlessly drive right past you despite your hazard lights and frantic waving. Baseball has its own broken alternators, injuries and losing streaks that render October plans suddenly irrelevant. Still, teams have good reason to think about what will happen if they get there; after all, it’s important that someone remember to pack sunscreen. And since we’re nerdy baseball fans and have access to a projection system, we might as well look ahead too. So which teams are actually built to be the most dangerous in October, and which ones might be better or worse postseason teams than their regular-season records suggest?

When it comes to projecting October, we have to think about teams somewhat differently than we do during the regular season. Projecting the regular season and a playoff series are two very different tasks. Not because of any playoff-related mythology, or because a team possesses specific characteristics that work better or worse in the postseason, but simply because teams use players very differently in October. It’s not quite as extreme as, say, the difference between how 100m gold medalists and 500m gold medalists are built, but it at least rhymes. In the playoffs, you get to ride your top talent hard since you no longer need to keep them fresh and healthy for a six-month marathon. And because of the postseason’s frequent off days, you also get to have a higher proportion of your innings pitched by the pitchers you actually want in the game. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: Except maybe SzymChat.

12:04

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if the lyric “Szymborski had a child bam ba lam” really works

12:04

Dan Szymborski: There’s a bit of a penalty for repeating after a previous stint of at least 1/2 a season

Read the rest of this entry »

It looked like it was going to be a quiet deadline for a while, but the floodgate opened over the weekend, and we got a lot of fun moves, including a deal involving two-time reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. In the end, it feels better than last year’s deadline, when every team seemed preoccupied mainly with shoring up its bullpen. Now, there were certainly a lot of relievers shifting around, but plenty of starting pitchers and position players were also traded, and variety is the spice of deadline life.

Deciding the victor and the goat of the trade deadline is a vexing philosophical exercise, as teams come into swapping season with different goals. That makes it hard to distill deadline performance into a single, all-purpose number. But since distillation is a fun process — we would not be blessed with bourbon without it — let’s narrow down the question to something a projection system can get its virtual mind around. I focused on the 2026 part of the equation to cover the ZiPS portion of the deadline: Which teams helped their 2026 chances the most? Read the rest of this entry »

You might have thought it was the Presidents Day Blowout Sale in San Francisco, as all 2026 models MUST GO, with 0% APR financing and additional dealer cash. All kidding aside — or maybe not, since this is a Szymborski piece — the Giants were one of deadline’s the most aggressive sellers and they continued the trend yesterday by trading two more veterans to contending teams. Heading to the Yankees is outfielder Heliot Ramos, who has hit .264/.304/.424 with nine homers in 74 games this season, good for 0.7 WAR, down numbers compared to his 2025 and especially his All-Star 2024 season. Elsewhere in the AL East, the Red Sox acquired lefty reliever Erik Miller, who has a 2.76 ERA and a 3.34 FIP, with 12 strikeouts per nine alongside six walks; Boston also picked up minor league outfielder Carlos Gutierrez. Of course, the Giants didn’t help restock these division rivals out of the goodness of their hearts: they received infielder Marcelo Mayer from the Red Sox, and pitcher Henry Lalane and infielder Kaeden Kent from the Yankees.

Over the weekend, I wrote about the Yankees trading for Luis García Jr. to help bolster their lineup until they get Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton back healthy. Through the use of cry-laughing emojis in our company Slack, fellow FanGraphiér Jeff Zimmerman quite rightly noted my possible naïveté in having confidence that this particular result would actually come to pass. Whether or not the Yankees hacked my computer, received a telepathic message from Jeff, or (most likely) came to the same conclusion, they’ve hedged their bets on their veterans returning by picking up Ramos.

Early in his career, Ramos appeared to be a star in the making. That stardom seemed almost within reach in 2024, but his power didn’t continue to develop (just the opposite), and he turned out to be a rather middling defensive corner outfielder who couldn’t stick in center. Still, Ramos does do something well: He hits left-handed pitching. Indeed, even in a rather mediocre season, he’s gone after southpaws to the tune of a 127 wRC+. I think García was a necessary addition to the Yankees offense, but the team also needed someone who could tee off on lefties, which García doesn’t, and who has experience in the outfield. And while Ramos is certainly below average out there — his 2026 numbers have rebounded from his dreadful 2025, though they’re still slightly under water — he at least has experience playing in the outfield. In fact, if I’m being perfectly honest, he’s probably as valuable of a player overall as Stanton, albeit without the highlight reel, 120-mph home runs. Ramos isn’t a free agent until after the 2029 season, so unless he’s traded again, the Yankees will have him in the mix over the next few years, assuming they want to. Here’s his ZiPS projection:

If you told me six weeks ago that the Red Sox would be one of the hottest teams in baseball and would be buyers at the trade deadline, I would have been shocked beyond belief. After all, not only would you have had an actual time machine, but you would have been using it for the extremely unambitious task of telling me and my cats how teams played in July. The Red Sox went 21-4 last month, highlighted by a 15-game winning streak, the majors’ longest since the 2021 Cardinals rolled off 17 wins in a row. They entered Monday’s games with the second Wild Card spot in hand, a four-game cushion on the Guardians behind them, and a shopping list to improve the 2026 team. Their big move was acquiring Adley Rutschman from Baltimore, but that wasn’t all they did.

Boston’s bullpen certainly isn’t a weak spot; the relief corps currently leads baseball in both ERA and FIP. But as quesabirria should have shown you, great things can be made even greater. With Aroldis Chapman firmly reserved for the ninth inning, Jovani Morán was the only other lefty on the roster, and though I’m a fan of Tyler Samaniego as a relief option, there’s no question that a risk-averse playoff team would rather have Miller in October, even with the walks. Miller isn’t merely a rental, either; unless the free agency rules change this winter, the Red Sox have him cost-controlled for three more seasons after this one. Here’s the ZiPS:

Also going to Boston is Gutierrez, a smallish lefty outfielder who has the misfortune of being adequate in basically every way instead of having one standout tool to inspire scouts. He’ll draw a walk or two, and while his contact rate has dropped this year, he has generally displayed a pretty decent hit tool. He seems unlikely to really develop a whole lot of power, but he looks to me like a future fourth outfielder type. ZiPS throws out names like Jon Jay, Chris Duffy, Kerry Robinson, and Pookie Wilson (who is not related to Mookie Wilson, as far as I am aware) as comps. I kind of think of him as a poor man’s Steven Kwan. To the ZiPS!

As for the return, Marcelo Mayer sounds like a pretty big name to send to San Francisco in exchange for a solid-but-not-elite reliever. And it would have been… in 2024. However you choose to portion out the blame, Mayer has been hit with a number of injuries and, when healthy, has regressed from his 2024 form. While he’s still just 23 and could very well have a bright future, his phenom days are past, and if you suddenly gave him his prospect eligibility back by some weird authoritative fiat, he’d slot in far lower than the number-three ranking he earned on our updated 2024 Top 100. With Luis Arraez gone and Casey Schmitt almost certainly out until 2027, the path is clear for Mayer to take the second base job as soon as he’s recovered from the stress fracture in his forearm. His ZiPS:

In return for Ramos, the Giants picked up pitcher Henry Lalane and infielder Kaeden Kent.

Lalane is a big lefty with good offspeed stuff and a fastball with decent movement. The heater’s velocity has ticked up in recent months, going from the 93-95 mph range to 95-97 mph. He’s awfully old for a prospect in A-ball, but that’s due to shoulder problems that have kept him off the field. A lot of scouts see him as a future middle reliever, but I imagine that the Giants will wait to see if his breaking pitches develop further and how he fares at the upper levels. ZiPS broadly thinks Lalane has upside, though I don’t generally like publishing ZiPS seasonal lines for pitchers until they debut in Double-A since the error bars are so large.

Kent was a third-round pick for the Yankees in the 2025 draft who struggled in his professional debut, hitting .182/.217/.265 in 25 games last year. That wasn’t enough to keep him off our Yankees Top Prospects list, where he ranked 11th as a 40 FV. With the caveat that he’s a High-A repeater, he’s having a much better year in 2026, with a .302/.359/.433 slashline, good for a 107 wRC+. The Yankees have been playing him at shortstop, second, and third, so if he hits well after his high-stakes promotion to Double-A, he could at least enter the utility infield picture. A lefty hitter with a bit of power who can play anywhere on the infield is a useful role-player archetype to have. Kent’s ZiPS:

The Giants’ return for Ramos is less than what they got for Miller, but truth be told, there’s a good chance that Ramos was going to be a non-tender candidate before he hit free agency, barring a turnaround in his game.

Taken together, these trades form a tidy summary of the kind of move we typically see at the deadline. The days when you’d frequently see superstars with two months remaining on their deals fetch half a team’s farm system are now far off in the rearview mirror. Most deadline swaps make quiet-but-real incremental improvements, and that’s exactly what happened here. The Yankees get a useful outfielder who addresses a specific need. The Red Sox get a reliever who will be on their 2026 playoff roster in return for a player who was unlikely to be. And the Giants go about the yeoman’s work of converting a disappointing roster into younger players with plausible upside. None of the players acquired by the Giants are franchise-altering, but they didn’t have franchise-altering players on offer here. They accepted reality and acted accordingly, which is far better than sticking a giant inflatable gorilla on the roof and insisting that Ramos and Miller were only available at the dealership manager’s special price.

The Padres added some sorely needed starting pitching on deadline day, bringing in left-hander Robbie Ray from the Giants in exchange for a pair of prospects, right-hander Miguel Mendez and shortstop Joniel Hernandez. Ray, 34, has put up a 3.08 ERA and a 4.36 FIP across 21 starts in 2026, with 15 homers allowed, 57 walks, and 107 strikeouts over 122 2/3 innings. In 11 Double-A starts this year, Mendez has a 4.93 ERA but a 3.21 FIP with more than a strikeout per game. He’s yet to allow a home run in 2026. Hernandez signed out of Cuba back in January as an international free agent and, at age 17, is running a .927 OPS in the Dominican Summer League.

The 2021 AL Cy Young winner is not the only coveted starter heading to San Diego. In addition to Ray, the Padres also acquired right-hander Casey Mize from the Tigers just minutes before the 6 PM ET deadline. (We’ll cover the Mize trade in a separate post.)

San Diego spent the first two months of the season pleasing most of the baseball world by sticking its thumbs in the eyes of the playground’s big dog, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Wresting first place for spells in the early going, the Padres hit their high-water mark on May 18, when they stood at 29-18 with a half-game lead earned by besting the Dodgers in the opener of a three-game series. Los Angeles took the final two games, though, and the Padres haven’t been serious threats for the NL West since then. After dropping 10 of 11 games in late May, they’ve been preoccupied just trying to keep above the .500 mark. But just as things looked their bleakest, the Friars turned things around. Having won eight of their last nine games, the Padres entered Monday just a game behind both the Diamondbacks and Phillies for the final wild card spot, quieting any whispers that they’d be sellers at the deadline. Read the rest of this entry »

The Atlanta Braves made a couple of minor moves over the weekend, adding pitchers Rick Mahler and Bruce Sutter, with the purpose of buttressing th…wait a second…

[Szym double-checks spelling]

The 1986 2026 Atlanta Braves made a couple of minor trades in recent days, acquiring pitchers Tyler Mahle and Brent Suter to shore up their pitching depth as we enter the season’s homestretch. Suter, who turns 37 in a few weeks, had a 4.12 ERA but a 3.65 FIP in 41 games for the Los Angeles Angels, who are apparently still a baseball team. Mahle is having his first full, healthy season in years, but has generally struggled otherwise in San Francisco, posting a 5.19 ERA and a 4.38 FIP for 0.8 WAR in 18 starts for the struggling Giants.

In return for Suter, the Braves are shipping infielder Nacho Alvarez Jr. to the Angels. After getting scattered playing time in the majors in 2024 and 2025, and putting up a disappointing .216/.296/.330 line in that span, he has spent the entire regular season with Triple-A Gwinnett, with his .664 OPS on the year providing ample explanation for why he didn’t pop up on the Braves roster at all this year. He did have at least one big highlight this season, getting Mexico onto the scoreboard first in its WBC game against Great Britain with a homer off Jack Anderson.

Heading to San Francisco for Mahle is reliever Anthony Molina, a name you might recognize from being on the fringes of Colorado’s roster the last few seasons. He’s only appeared in three games for the Braves this season, but has put up a 3.64 ERA/4.01 FIP for Gwinnett. Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees acquired another bat for their offense on Sunday, bringing in first baseman/second baseman Luis García Jr. in return for pitchers Jack Cebert, Ben Grable, Yovanny Cruz, and Jake Bird. Scratched from Sunday’s lineup due to the strong possibility of a trade being completed, García has had a breakout season, at least when it comes to power, hitting .283/.313/.560 with 23 home runs in 104 games, for a wRC+ of 134 and 2.2 WAR.

The offense has been a real sore spot for New York lately, so making an addition here was a primary concern for the club. When the Yankees woke up for an off-day on the morning of June 1, they ranked second in baseball in wRC+ and fourth overall in runs scored. Aaron Judge had gone 1-for-4 with two RBI the night before, and that was the last time we saw him in a game. Before first pitch that day, the three-time MVP was removed from the lineup due to lingering shoulder soreness. Later, after imaging revealed a stress fracture in Judge’s right rib cage, he was placed on the IL.

Since losing Judge, the Yankees have had the worst wRC+ in baseball, at 87, and have ranked 26th in the league in runs scored. That they have still managed to play barely winning baseball, going 27-26 since then, is thanks to their elite pitching. Crunching some numbers, if the Yankees had merely had a league-average pitching staff over the last two months, they would have about six fewer wins right now, which is basically their entire cushion in the wild card race. Read the rest of this entry »

Spencer Strider made a big splash entering the majors, finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 to his teammate Michael Harris II. In just 131 2/3 innings that season, Strider struck out 202 batters against only seven homers allowed, for a sterling 2.67 ERA, an even better 1.83 FIP, and 4.9 WAR. He showed it wasn’t a fluke the following season, making the NL All-Star team and doing enough to pop up on more than two-thirds of the Cy Young ballots.

But two starts into his 2024 campaign, his velocity was down and he reported elbow pain, and that was that for his year, prematurely ended by an internal brace procedure. Since then, he hasn’t been the same pitcher. Now out again with an elbow ailment, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman gives credence to the talk that Strider won’t return in 2026, at least as a starting pitcher. I’ve heard the same insider buzz myself, but Mark has way better Braves sources than I do.

So what happens for Strider now? What does his projection look like after an injury-shortened 2026, and how would his numbers look if he were converted to the bullpen full time? Read the rest of this entry »