Author Archive

2024 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the final team is the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

In a certain way, this team is a bit more depressing than the Oakland Athletics. No, they’re not trying to peace out of Chicago, but I think the A’s front office is probably more realistic about the team’s immediate chances of winning than the Southsiders are. It’s always hard to gauge exactly what a team truly thinks of their outlook, but I get the impression that the White Sox think they will be at least halfway competitive in 2024. Realistically, though, a lot of things would have to go their way, even in a weak division like the AL Central.

The Pale Hose have a one-dude offense in a sport where that isn’t a thing. Luis Robert Jr. is in his prime right now, probably at his peak form. If the White Sox were actually rebuilding, he’s the guy they could trade to start meaningfully restocking the farm system. Instead, he’ll be a key cog in their quest to win 70 games. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the penultimate team is New York Yankees.

Batters

If I’ve learned anything from two decades of projection work (and people getting mad at that projection work), it’s that fans are way too optimistic about teams when everything goes great and way too pessimistic after things have gone awry.
The 2022 Yankees were a good example of this. After a first half in which they went 58-23, good for a .716 winning percentage and a Pythagorean win percentage that nearly matched, ZiPS only projected the team to go 45-36 the rest of the way. “Knave!” they shouted at me on Twitter. “Vagabond! Miscreant!” OK, maybe they didn’t use those words exactly, but there was bewilderment and more than a touch of anger that I would disrespect the Bronx Bombers so. In the end, the Yankees actually were four wins worse than that projection in the second half.

And just like things are never as amazing as they seem when everything goes your way, the reverse is true, with the Yankees again being a good example. They had their worst season since 1992 in 2023, and based on how they’ve been talked about over the last six months or so, you’d think they were a glorified Triple-A team. But the Yankees weren’t that bad — they went 82-80 in a division without a true doormat team to beat up on. That record was all of seven wins below their preseason projection, a miss that barely merits raising an eyebrow, and certainly doesn’t justify floating Brian Cashman out to sea (or bunting more). Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Oakland Athletics

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Oakland Athletics.

Batters

The A’s are the most depressing team in baseball, hands down. They actually have some competition if we’re talking about the worst team in baseball, but neither the Colorado Rockies nor the Chicago White Sox feel quite as miserable as the A’s. How often does a player take the opportunity to go all-out on the team’s owner when they announce their retirement? Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Texas Rangers.

Batters

The Rangers led the American League in runs scored in 2023, and most of the players who contributed to that success are set to return to the lineup in 2024. Sure, Corey Seager might not repeat his monster season, but his performance should still land comfortably in star territory, and the Rangers could get a little luckier with his health. Evan Carter isn’t likely to post an OPS around 1.000 again, but that’s balanced by the fact that the team ought to get a lot more than 23 regular season games from him this year. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Colorado Rockies

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Colorado Rockies.

Batters

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: the Colorado Rockies will almost certainly be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2024, a prime candidate to get the top pick in next year’s draft lottery. There’s just no way around that conclusion, as the Rockies don’t have the same young depth or big league-quality role players that the Baltimore Orioles had on hand to make their initial burst in 2022 possible.

Still, the team has at least shown signs of life in their decision-making processes over the year or so. Gone — as far as I’m aware — is the ownership talk of winning 94 games. And young players are seeing the field. There were times Ezequiel Tovar struggled mightily at the plate during his rookie season, especially in the first month, but for once, the team avoided panicking and blocking a top prospect with the Chris Owings/José Iglesias-type veterans who hang around Triple-A looking for a big league job. And while it took the franchise a month to get him onto the roster, the Rockies looked for excuses to play Nolan Jones rather than searching for reasons not to. That paid off, with Jones enjoying an excellent rookie season that saw him improve more in the outfield than most expected. A lot of Colorado’s marginal prospects in their 20s struggled, but at least they played. None of Elehuris Montero, Alan Trejo, or Michael Toglia did all that well, but their playing time demonstrated a (possible) change in organizational thinking, as players like them have been marginalized in the past. Think back to Tom Murphy or Mike Tauchman during their time with the Rockies — the team could not have seemed less interested in seeing what they had.

Brenton Doyle rightly won a Gold Glove award, and the defense is probably mostly real; the ZiPS probability-based method for minor league performance had him at 11 runs better than average in 2022 despite this method being intentionally conservative because of its uncertainty. (For those curious, the highest-ranked outfielders in 2023 were Jorge Barrosa and Ceddanne Rafaela.) Doyle’s bat leaves much to be desired, but there’s a real argument to be made that given the size of the Coors outfield, this is a spot where the team should be willing to swap offense for defense.

ZiPS doesn’t expect Jones to regress too much in 2024 — the Sophomore Slump is a myth, but regression toward the mean is not — and projects considerable growth from Tovar, who was extremely young in his debut. ZiPS also expects a typical season from Ryan McMahon, and while it appears that Brendan Rodgers no longer has star upside, he’s a roughly league-average player when healthy.

That isn’t to say that this team has completely avoided mistakes. The Rockies actually made some trades near the deadline, which they almost never did in the past, but if they were ever going to get anything for Elias Díaz, it would have been last July. Coco Montes deserved a longer look, and I think he’d be an interesting pickup for someone (though he did pass through waivers in September).

As for the rest of the lineup… well, things don’t look great. At this point, neither Kris Bryant nor Charlie Blackmon project particularly well. This team is going to have one of the worst offenses in baseball again, and any long-term turnaround is going to require greater creativity than simply waiting for Zac Veen and Drew Romo, both of whom had disappointing 2023 seasons for a variety of reasons, to come and save the day.

Pitchers

Losing Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela to Tommy John makes this group look even worse than it is, but let’s be honest: their arm trouble isn’t what’s keeping the Rockies from being playoff relevant in 2024. Márquez seems the more likely to appear towards the end of the season, having had his procedure a couple months earlier than Senzatela in 2023. Of the pickups the team has made to eat some innings, Dakota Hudson is a groundball pitcher in front of what should be a solidly above-average infield defense, while Cal Quantrill typically isn’t crushable when he struggles. Along with Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner, they’re basically here so that the games will end and the bullpen doesn’t have to throw 1,100 innings.

As for the bullpen… yeah. ZiPS likes Justin Lawrence, Jake Bird, and Jalen Beeks to be around average, with the rest of the relief corps — including any possible interesting minor leaguers — set to be off that standard. But again, like the Orioles from 2019-2021, the 2024 record isn’t the point. Instead of paying too much for relievers who were good two or three years ago, the Rockies should try to accumulate any halfway interesting young thrower under 25, even if they don’t have a clue, and see who has an epiphany. This is a method only lousy teams have the luxury to adopt.

Right now, ZiPS has Colorado in the 64-68 win range, depending on the assumptions you make about who will play, where, and when. The problem with the Rockies hasn’t just been that they’ve been a bad team, but that they’ve been a bad team with no idea of how bad teams become good ones. Being a bad team with a vision would be a tremendous upgrade over the club that frittered away the prime years of some good young talent during the disastrous Jeff Bridich era. And I’m not one who tends toward optimism with this franchise!

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nolan Jones L 26 LF 552 480 77 133 29 3 22 84 65 155 14 2
Ryan McMahon L 29 3B 588 521 73 125 27 2 22 74 61 167 5 3
Ezequiel Tovar R 22 SS 588 552 75 143 32 4 17 76 28 142 11 4
Brendan Rodgers R 27 2B 417 383 49 107 21 2 12 51 27 81 0 1
Coco Montes R 27 2B 514 465 61 114 27 3 14 65 40 144 6 3
Brenton Doyle R 26 CF 484 451 59 106 17 4 14 61 25 163 18 4
Adael Amador B 21 SS 434 385 60 105 19 2 10 50 39 61 10 5
Jimmy Herron R 27 LF 484 429 63 108 21 3 11 59 44 101 17 4
Ryan Ritter R 23 SS 536 475 70 108 22 3 18 74 41 177 10 3
Sean Bouchard R 28 RF 333 294 45 75 19 3 12 46 34 88 5 2
Jacob Stallings R 34 C 312 276 27 67 15 0 5 32 29 69 0 1
Braxton Fulford R 25 C 354 310 46 73 17 1 7 45 27 94 4 2
Kris Bryant R 32 RF 402 356 53 96 23 1 13 47 38 84 2 1
Alan Trejo R 28 2B 366 340 43 85 22 2 10 47 20 86 4 3
Elehuris Montero R 25 1B 484 442 59 113 21 2 20 71 30 132 0 1
Hunter Stovall R 27 2B 419 386 45 100 18 3 5 43 26 78 9 4
Yonathan Daza R 30 CF 347 321 38 93 16 2 3 33 18 55 3 3
Hunter Goodman R 24 1B 541 495 68 124 33 2 24 87 34 149 1 1
Willie MacIver R 27 C 336 298 31 64 14 1 6 35 29 99 8 3
Charlie Blackmon L 37 RF 440 394 53 107 21 4 9 52 34 72 3 1
Braiden Ward L 25 CF 318 271 49 63 9 2 1 38 20 77 25 5
Ronaiker Palma R 24 C 251 234 25 60 8 1 1 20 10 33 2 2
Sterlin Thompson L 23 3B 398 363 44 95 22 1 9 51 24 84 8 2
Roman Quinn B 31 CF 158 133 19 26 6 2 2 14 16 58 9 2
Jack Blomgren R 25 2B 240 208 28 48 8 2 3 29 17 73 8 3
Jordan Beck R 23 LF 548 496 61 121 29 1 15 65 50 148 10 3
Connor Kaiser R 27 SS 331 296 43 62 13 2 6 33 31 98 7 1
Elias Díaz R 33 C 417 384 41 99 20 1 12 52 28 88 0 1
Aaron Schunk R 26 3B 479 444 51 107 21 3 9 53 27 129 6 4
Zach Kokoska L 25 1B 337 304 40 73 15 2 9 44 22 87 9 4
Cole Tucker B 27 CF 359 322 42 76 15 3 4 34 33 89 5 3
Drew Romo B 22 C 413 379 41 97 18 4 7 48 23 83 5 4
Warming Bernabel R 22 3B 390 368 45 95 21 1 8 45 15 77 3 2
Yorvis Torrealba R 26 LF 151 138 21 35 7 0 1 14 10 29 6 3
Daniel Cope R 27 DH 173 156 15 38 7 1 3 19 14 50 0 1
Julio Carreras R 24 SS 459 417 52 99 23 3 5 46 27 113 8 3
Jameson Hannah L 26 RF 257 234 28 62 13 2 2 25 18 57 6 1
Kyle Datres R 28 2B 380 333 42 75 12 2 9 44 35 103 11 2
Bret Boswell L 29 3B 293 265 27 55 13 2 6 30 25 98 2 1
Yanquiel Fernandez L 21 RF 545 513 60 126 27 3 17 70 25 146 1 1
Zac Veen L 22 RF 389 351 41 84 16 3 7 39 32 96 22 4
Niko Decolati R 26 RF 333 293 42 65 11 1 3 31 30 90 8 3
AJ Lewis R 26 1B 251 214 23 42 11 0 3 28 23 77 1 2
Trevor Boone R 26 RF 200 184 20 35 8 3 5 23 12 95 1 1
Grayson Greiner R 31 C 167 152 14 28 6 0 3 16 12 68 0 1
Jonathan Morales R 29 1B 366 338 31 84 14 0 7 35 22 63 0 1
Michael Toglia B 25 1B 530 476 59 105 22 3 17 63 48 155 4 2
Nic Kent R 24 2B 422 381 42 93 19 1 5 41 23 83 5 4
Eddy Diaz R 24 2B 378 344 44 81 12 3 2 35 19 88 12 9
Bladimir Restituyo R 22 CF 470 444 56 113 19 3 9 53 7 96 12 6
Colin Simpson L 27 DH 287 263 28 59 14 2 6 31 21 86 1 1
Harold Castro L 30 2B 349 329 34 91 16 1 5 42 14 73 1 1
Taylor Snyder R 29 3B 347 320 39 67 14 2 10 38 23 119 7 2
Grant Lavigne L 24 1B 517 458 48 106 19 4 9 55 49 146 2 2
Benny Montgomery R 21 CF 481 443 51 103 20 3 7 49 31 151 9 3
Daniel Montano L 25 LF 413 368 40 85 16 5 6 40 39 123 3 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Nolan Jones 552 .277 .368 .488 121 .210 .366 6 3.1 .367 90
Ryan McMahon 588 .240 .321 .426 93 .186 .310 11 2.3 .324 74
Ezequiel Tovar 588 .259 .300 .424 87 .165 .321 10 2.2 .311 74
Brendan Rodgers 417 .279 .333 .439 100 .159 .328 1 1.4 .334 56
Coco Montes 514 .245 .311 .406 86 .161 .326 3 1.0 .312 61
Brenton Doyle 484 .235 .280 .384 71 .149 .336 11 0.9 .287 54
Adael Amador 434 .273 .345 .410 97 .138 .303 -6 0.9 .330 59
Jimmy Herron 484 .252 .331 .392 88 .140 .306 7 0.9 .317 61
Ryan Ritter 536 .227 .303 .400 82 .173 .321 0 0.9 .306 61
Sean Bouchard 333 .255 .336 .463 106 .207 .325 1 0.9 .344 48
Jacob Stallings 312 .243 .319 .351 76 .109 .307 5 0.9 .299 31
Braxton Fulford 354 .235 .319 .365 79 .129 .316 2 0.8 .304 38
Kris Bryant 402 .270 .351 .449 108 .180 .320 -5 0.6 .347 57
Alan Trejo 366 .250 .296 .415 83 .165 .307 2 0.5 .306 44
Elehuris Montero 484 .256 .310 .448 95 .192 .321 3 0.5 .325 62
Hunter Stovall 419 .259 .308 .360 74 .101 .314 5 0.4 .293 46
Yonathan Daza 347 .290 .330 .380 86 .090 .342 0 0.4 .311 42
Hunter Goodman 541 .251 .307 .471 99 .220 .311 -2 0.3 .330 72
Willie MacIver 336 .215 .296 .329 63 .114 .301 4 0.3 .279 32
Charlie Blackmon 440 .272 .339 .414 96 .142 .313 -2 0.3 .328 56
Braiden Ward 318 .232 .334 .292 66 .059 .321 0 0.2 .291 34
Ronaiker Palma 251 .256 .290 .312 58 .056 .295 5 0.2 .266 22
Sterlin Thompson 398 .262 .322 .402 88 .140 .319 -6 0.2 .315 49
Roman Quinn 158 .195 .299 .316 61 .120 .329 3 0.2 .278 15
Jack Blomgren 240 .231 .315 .332 70 .101 .341 1 0.1 .291 25
Jordan Beck 548 .244 .312 .397 84 .153 .318 2 0.1 .310 65
Connor Kaiser 331 .209 .288 .328 61 .118 .292 3 0.1 .274 30
Elias Díaz 417 .258 .309 .409 86 .151 .306 -10 0.0 .311 49
Aaron Schunk 479 .241 .288 .363 69 .122 .320 5 0.0 .283 49
Zach Kokoska 337 .240 .307 .391 81 .151 .308 3 0.0 .306 40
Cole Tucker 359 .236 .307 .339 69 .102 .314 1 -0.1 .287 36
Drew Romo 413 .256 .301 .380 77 .124 .311 -6 -0.2 .295 46
Warming Bernabel 390 .258 .295 .386 76 .128 .307 -2 -0.2 .295 43
Yorvis Torrealba 151 .254 .313 .326 68 .072 .315 0 -0.3 .286 17
Daniel Cope 173 .244 .312 .359 75 .115 .340 0 -0.3 .297 18
Julio Carreras 459 .237 .292 .343 66 .106 .314 -2 -0.4 .280 45
Jameson Hannah 257 .265 .320 .363 79 .098 .343 -2 -0.4 .301 29
Kyle Datres 380 .225 .313 .354 75 .129 .299 -7 -0.4 .296 40
Bret Boswell 293 .208 .280 .340 61 .132 .304 1 -0.4 .274 26
Yanquiel Fernandez 545 .246 .283 .409 78 .164 .311 3 -0.5 .295 60
Zac Veen 389 .239 .306 .362 74 .123 .310 -2 -0.5 .294 45
Niko Decolati 333 .222 .307 .297 60 .075 .310 4 -0.5 .275 30
AJ Lewis 251 .196 .308 .290 58 .093 .291 2 -0.6 .277 20
Trevor Boone 200 .190 .250 .348 54 .158 .357 2 -0.7 .260 17
Grayson Greiner 167 .184 .253 .283 40 .099 .309 -2 -0.7 .241 11
Jonathan Morales 366 .249 .295 .352 69 .104 .287 2 -0.8 .284 36
Michael Toglia 530 .221 .294 .387 76 .166 .289 1 -0.8 .296 56
Nic Kent 422 .244 .296 .339 66 .094 .300 -3 -0.8 .280 41
Eddy Diaz 378 .235 .290 .305 56 .070 .311 1 -0.8 .266 37
Bladimir Restituyo 470 .255 .271 .372 66 .117 .307 -2 -0.9 .276 50
Colin Simpson 287 .224 .282 .361 67 .137 .310 0 -0.9 .279 27
Harold Castro 349 .277 .305 .377 77 .100 .343 -10 -0.9 .297 39
Taylor Snyder 347 .209 .265 .359 61 .150 .298 -4 -1.0 .272 33
Grant Lavigne 517 .231 .314 .349 74 .118 .320 0 -1.0 .295 51
Benny Montgomery 481 .233 .291 .339 64 .106 .337 -5 -1.0 .279 47
Daniel Montano 413 .231 .304 .351 71 .120 .331 -3 -1.0 .289 41

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Nolan Jones Rick Monday Willie Crawford Norm Siebern
Ryan McMahon Greg Norton Jeff Larish Jack Howell
Ezequiel Tovar Oswaldo Cabrera Alex Gonzalez Corey Hart
Brendan Rodgers Jake Noll Ramon Martinez Julio Gotay
Coco Montes Jeff Moronko Jim Command Casey Blake
Brenton Doyle Reggie Abercrombie Dick Smith César Hernández
Adael Amador Luis Alicea Geraldo Perdomo Mike Woodard
Jimmy Herron Phillip Ervin Eric Owens Terry Bradshaw
Ryan Ritter Josh Fields Billy Consolo Alex Gonzalez
Sean Bouchard Paul Jernigan Fred Rico John Briggs
Jacob Stallings Jeff Reed Chris Gimenez Bob Swift
Braxton Fulford Jayhawk Owens Edwin Marquez Jakson Reetz
Kris Bryant Clyde Barnhart Orlando Merced Ira Flagstead
Alan Trejo Scott Kingery Omar Infante Foster Castleman
Elehuris Montero Rich Murray Gino Kinchen Rogelio Alvarez
Hunter Stovall Ray Olmedo Brendan Ryan Pedro Chavez
Yonathan Daza Juan Delis Ken Woods Stan Johnson
Hunter Goodman Mike Fitzgerald Gail Harris Richie Sexson
Willie MacIver Barry Winford Dennis Pelfrey Joe Pignatano
Charlie Blackmon Jack Tobin Max Flack Charlie Jamieson
Braiden Ward Dan Motl Antoan Richardson William Ray
Ronaiker Palma Carlos Ruiz Jack Bowen Tom Zimmer
Sterlin Thompson J.P. Roberge Billy Smith Jared Triolo
Roman Quinn Chris Powell Milt Cuyler Dick Smith
Jack Blomgren Jason Brett David Dalton Kris Goodman
Jordan Beck Chris Knabenshue Glenn Owens Marvin Garrison
Connor Kaiser Brett King Jeremy Sy Juan Bell
Elias Díaz Harry Saferight Pat Borders Matt Wieters
Aaron Schunk Francisco Martinez Eddie Pye Kristopher Negrón
Zach Kokoska Anthony Seratelli Sil Campusano Kyle Colligan
Cole Tucker Jason Maas Evan Marzilli Aaron Cain
Drew Romo Phil Avlas John Hicks Wilkin Castillo
Warming Bernabel Robert Shelton Jim Pamlanye Shane Letterio
Yorvis Torrealba Kevin Reynolds Scott Stetson Kit Putnam
Daniel Cope Ronnie Farkas Wally Backman Gerardo Avila
Julio Carreras Blake Davis Johnnie LeMaster Tommy Manzella
Jameson Hannah Steve Bieser Julio Peguero Robert Belford
Kyle Datres Scott Earl Luis Guance Dave Hirtz
Bret Boswell Bob Frazier Harry Riconda Vic Harris
Yanquiel Fernandez Mike McDonald Don Dillard Nelson Gardner
Zac Veen Larry Shaw Corey Adamson Duane Walker
Niko Decolati Carlton Steele Larry Blackwell Scott Buss
AJ Lewis Jeremy Schied Carlos Lopez Doak Jones
Trevor Boone Runey Davis Danny Simpson Logan Wood
Grayson Greiner John Orton Alan Probst Marc Sullivan
Jonathan Morales Brian Traxler Freddie Thon Tommy Peterman
Michael Toglia Charles Howard Jim Koranda Glen Merklen
Nic Kent Dan Kaczrowski Eric King Chris Barnwell
Eddy Diaz Robbie Hudson David Rivera Demetrius Heath
Bladimir Restituyo Johan Rojas Rick Bosetti Doug Glanville
Colin Simpson Steven Caseres Brian Turner Gabe Snyder
Harold Castro Marco Hernández Jimmy Jordan Jim Glover
Taylor Snyder Matt Hagen Aaron Sisk Tye Waller
Grant Lavigne Jason Turner Ryan Aguilar Mark Chasey
Benny Montgomery Johnny Jeter Edward Ovalle Alfred Facchini
Daniel Montano Dusty Rhodes Jameson Fisher Ross Jones

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Nolan Jones .304 .394 .543 139 4.3 .248 .340 .434 101 1.7
Ryan McMahon .265 .347 .484 113 3.6 .212 .293 .372 75 0.9
Ezequiel Tovar .285 .325 .484 107 3.6 .234 .276 .377 69 0.9
Brendan Rodgers .311 .363 .492 122 2.4 .253 .306 .384 82 0.4
Coco Montes .271 .334 .461 102 2.0 .215 .281 .356 66 -0.2
Brenton Doyle .264 .308 .438 91 2.1 .207 .255 .335 53 -0.2
Adael Amador .301 .371 .463 116 1.9 .242 .313 .364 77 -0.1
Jimmy Herron .280 .358 .444 107 2.1 .225 .301 .343 71 -0.1
Ryan Ritter .258 .332 .465 106 2.4 .201 .280 .347 64 -0.3
Sean Bouchard .283 .364 .526 127 1.7 .233 .314 .417 89 0.2
Jacob Stallings .274 .352 .405 97 1.7 .208 .290 .305 58 0.2
Braxton Fulford .269 .350 .421 99 1.6 .203 .292 .313 59 0.0
Kris Bryant .297 .377 .503 127 1.5 .235 .321 .394 84 -0.5
Alan Trejo .280 .325 .476 103 1.4 .222 .268 .367 64 -0.3
Elehuris Montero .285 .335 .511 117 1.7 .229 .283 .398 76 -0.6
Hunter Stovall .288 .339 .409 94 1.5 .228 .278 .319 55 -0.5
Yonathan Daza .323 .362 .424 104 1.2 .258 .300 .339 69 -0.4
Hunter Goodman .280 .335 .532 119 1.6 .225 .280 .414 78 -1.1
Willie MacIver .249 .331 .379 85 1.2 .184 .264 .279 43 -0.6
Charlie Blackmon .305 .369 .472 116 1.3 .241 .309 .367 75 -0.8
Braiden Ward .265 .362 .330 82 0.9 .205 .311 .252 52 -0.4
Ronaiker Palma .293 .328 .359 79 0.9 .220 .255 .273 39 -0.4
Sterlin Thompson .288 .348 .455 107 1.1 .228 .291 .354 68 -0.7
Roman Quinn .227 .331 .375 84 0.6 .166 .263 .266 40 -0.2
Jack Blomgren .263 .340 .388 89 0.6 .202 .285 .291 52 -0.4
Jordan Beck .270 .339 .448 103 1.3 .216 .281 .344 63 -1.4
Connor Kaiser .237 .318 .392 82 0.9 .179 .259 .281 42 -0.8
Elias Díaz .288 .338 .470 107 1.0 .228 .282 .350 65 -1.1
Aaron Schunk .273 .319 .418 92 1.3 .214 .258 .317 52 -1.1
Zach Kokoska .272 .339 .452 103 0.9 .214 .281 .343 63 -0.8
Cole Tucker .264 .335 .385 86 0.6 .208 .278 .295 52 -0.9
Drew Romo .286 .328 .439 100 0.9 .225 .271 .330 58 -1.2
Warming Bernabel .287 .322 .439 96 0.8 .229 .269 .343 59 -1.0
Yorvis Torrealba .281 .340 .370 85 0.0 .227 .287 .290 52 -0.6
Daniel Cope .272 .341 .410 93 0.0 .206 .275 .302 50 -0.8
Julio Carreras .265 .321 .384 83 0.7 .209 .269 .296 49 -1.3
Jameson Hannah .293 .347 .408 96 0.2 .235 .288 .325 61 -1.0
Kyle Datres .253 .345 .408 94 0.5 .193 .284 .302 54 -1.4
Bret Boswell .240 .313 .411 86 0.5 .174 .250 .290 40 -1.1
Yanquiel Fernandez .272 .308 .459 96 0.7 .219 .258 .356 60 -1.8
Zac Veen .272 .334 .424 97 0.5 .209 .276 .313 57 -1.4
Niko Decolati .254 .336 .339 76 0.1 .190 .277 .252 40 -1.3
AJ Lewis .232 .339 .343 79 -0.1 .163 .277 .244 38 -1.2
Trevor Boone .222 .285 .416 78 -0.1 .157 .223 .284 32 -1.2
Grayson Greiner .217 .286 .337 61 -0.3 .154 .221 .235 21 -1.1
Jonathan Morales .280 .327 .400 88 0.1 .221 .269 .309 51 -1.6
Michael Toglia .251 .320 .435 96 0.4 .192 .267 .332 58 -2.1
Nic Kent .275 .325 .386 85 0.2 .216 .268 .294 49 -1.7
Eddy Diaz .261 .320 .350 74 0.0 .206 .262 .265 39 -1.6
Bladimir Restituyo .283 .300 .414 85 0.3 .227 .244 .333 51 -1.7
Colin Simpson .253 .310 .421 87 -0.1 .198 .253 .320 50 -1.5
Harold Castro .307 .336 .421 96 0.0 .248 .276 .332 58 -1.7
Taylor Snyder .238 .293 .429 85 0.1 .175 .229 .306 40 -1.9
Grant Lavigne .258 .343 .402 91 0.2 .201 .288 .306 56 -2.1
Benny Montgomery .262 .318 .387 83 0.1 .207 .264 .295 48 -2.0
Daniel Montano .259 .335 .399 90 -0.1 .200 .275 .302 52 -2.0

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Nolan Jones .269 .352 .469 .281 .376 .497
Ryan McMahon .227 .304 .407 .245 .329 .434
Ezequiel Tovar .270 .309 .446 .253 .295 .411
Brendan Rodgers .293 .348 .488 .273 .326 .415
Coco Montes .250 .323 .422 .242 .304 .396
Brenton Doyle .244 .290 .406 .229 .273 .369
Adael Amador .272 .339 .417 .274 .348 .406
Jimmy Herron .253 .335 .400 .251 .328 .387
Ryan Ritter .227 .304 .407 .228 .303 .397
Sean Bouchard .260 .348 .472 .251 .328 .456
Jacob Stallings .245 .327 .362 .242 .315 .346
Braxton Fulford .237 .318 .368 .235 .320 .362
Kris Bryant .277 .358 .479 .267 .348 .439
Alan Trejo .252 .300 .439 .249 .293 .398
Elehuris Montero .264 .319 .483 .250 .304 .425
Hunter Stovall .269 .323 .372 .253 .298 .353
Yonathan Daza .294 .339 .394 .288 .326 .373
Hunter Goodman .266 .324 .509 .242 .298 .451
Willie MacIver .221 .304 .344 .210 .289 .318
Charlie Blackmon .269 .333 .387 .273 .342 .425
Braiden Ward .226 .337 .286 .235 .333 .294
Ronaiker Palma .271 .308 .306 .248 .280 .315
Sterlin Thompson .252 .316 .369 .265 .324 .415
Roman Quinn .205 .300 .364 .191 .298 .292
Jack Blomgren .240 .321 .347 .226 .311 .323
Jordan Beck .250 .326 .410 .241 .306 .391
Connor Kaiser .208 .300 .330 .211 .281 .326
Elias Díaz .262 .316 .418 .256 .306 .405
Aaron Schunk .243 .295 .379 .240 .284 .353
Zach Kokoska .229 .302 .354 .245 .310 .409
Cole Tucker .243 .305 .336 .233 .308 .340
Drew Romo .259 .301 .385 .254 .301 .377
Warming Bernabel .267 .307 .397 .253 .288 .380
Yorvis Torrealba .259 .328 .310 .250 .302 .338
Daniel Cope .250 .333 .357 .240 .300 .360
Julio Carreras .242 .297 .354 .234 .289 .336
Jameson Hannah .256 .306 .372 .269 .327 .359
Kyle Datres .235 .321 .391 .220 .309 .335
Bret Boswell .207 .278 .354 .208 .281 .333
Yanquiel Fernandez .238 .271 .384 .249 .288 .422
Zac Veen .239 .306 .359 .239 .306 .364
Niko Decolati .224 .311 .290 .220 .305 .301
AJ Lewis .207 .316 .293 .189 .303 .288
Trevor Boone .194 .256 .347 .188 .246 .348
Grayson Greiner .184 .245 .286 .184 .257 .282
Jonathan Morales .254 .312 .365 .245 .285 .344
Michael Toglia .216 .284 .389 .223 .301 .385
Nic Kent .248 .303 .349 .242 .292 .333
Eddy Diaz .248 .302 .321 .227 .281 .295
Bladimir Restituyo .262 .278 .372 .250 .266 .371
Colin Simpson .217 .267 .361 .228 .289 .361
Harold Castro .260 .286 .342 .281 .311 .387
Taylor Snyder .215 .278 .380 .206 .257 .347
Grant Lavigne .224 .299 .314 .235 .322 .368
Benny Montgomery .244 .306 .359 .226 .283 .328
Daniel Montano .224 .286 .336 .235 .314 .359

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Germán Márquez R 29 7 10 4.75 24 24 136.3 135 72 18 46 117
Cal Quantrill R 29 6 8 4.93 26 23 127.7 140 70 19 42 83
Dakota Hudson R 29 7 9 4.51 25 21 123.7 129 62 15 48 75
Anthony Molina R 22 5 7 5.09 27 26 120.3 143 68 17 36 71
Kyle Freeland L 31 7 10 5.24 26 26 137.3 161 80 22 41 87
Tanner Gordon R 26 7 10 5.14 24 23 117.3 137 67 19 32 77
Jeff Criswell R 25 5 8 5.22 25 23 112.0 118 65 17 49 93
Carson Palmquist L 23 5 7 5.01 20 20 93.3 93 52 14 38 90
Joe Rock L 23 5 7 5.14 22 22 98.0 105 56 14 40 77
Antonio Senzatela R 29 4 6 5.09 19 19 99.0 117 56 13 29 61
Gabriel Hughes R 22 6 8 4.99 18 18 83.0 89 46 12 30 65
Austin Gomber L 30 6 9 5.32 24 21 118.3 130 70 20 37 86
Ryan Feltner R 27 5 6 5.15 20 19 92.7 96 53 14 38 83
Nick Bush L 27 3 5 5.28 15 15 75.0 84 44 13 19 56
Chris McMahon R 25 3 4 5.31 17 16 78.0 92 46 12 24 51
Connor Seabold R 28 4 6 5.36 27 18 100.7 112 60 16 28 87
Connor Van Scoyoc R 24 4 8 5.56 20 19 102.0 116 63 16 42 68
Peter Lambert R 27 4 6 5.38 27 17 95.3 103 57 15 38 78
Justin Lawrence R 29 5 5 4.54 65 0 69.3 63 35 8 32 76
Jalen Beeks L 30 3 4 4.97 42 7 63.3 68 35 10 25 61
Jake Bird R 28 3 4 4.75 61 2 77.7 79 41 10 29 67
Ty Blach L 33 3 5 5.48 26 13 87.0 107 53 14 22 56
Mitchell Kilkenny R 27 4 6 5.47 18 15 72.3 87 44 11 22 40
Case Williams R 22 4 9 5.80 22 22 104.0 124 67 17 45 62
Ryan Rolison L 26 2 4 5.62 13 13 57.7 67 36 10 23 42
Andrew Quezada R 27 4 7 5.75 21 17 87.7 107 56 14 34 49
Karl Kauffmann R 26 5 9 5.87 25 21 112.0 131 73 16 52 69
Josh Rogers L 29 5 9 5.80 25 13 94.7 114 61 18 32 48
Will Ethridge R 26 3 5 5.81 18 13 66.7 77 43 10 27 41
Lucas Gilbreath L 28 2 4 5.40 29 7 53.3 55 32 8 32 51
Noah Davis R 27 3 7 5.92 21 20 89.7 99 59 14 44 67
Tyler Kinley R 33 2 2 5.06 38 1 37.3 37 21 6 15 36
Blake Goldsberry R 27 2 2 5.17 31 2 38.3 41 22 6 15 31
Dylan Spain R 26 2 2 5.11 25 2 37.0 42 21 6 11 26
Victor Vodnik R 24 2 3 5.24 37 2 46.3 47 27 7 26 44
Gavin Hollowell R 26 1 2 5.02 43 0 52.0 51 29 8 21 53
Dugan Darnell R 27 3 5 5.07 39 0 49.7 51 28 7 21 46
Nick Mears R 27 2 3 5.03 39 0 39.3 37 22 6 24 44
Colten Schmidt L 28 1 2 5.93 12 5 30.3 38 20 5 10 16
Thomas Ponticelli R 27 3 5 5.68 36 6 63.3 72 40 10 29 43
Seth Halvorsen R 24 1 2 4.96 17 0 16.3 18 9 2 5 10
Austin Kitchen L 27 3 4 5.31 37 2 57.7 69 34 9 17 34
Chase Anderson R 36 2 5 6.21 18 14 66.7 76 46 13 31 51
Reagan Todd L 28 3 4 5.12 40 0 38.7 38 22 6 21 40
Matt Koch R 33 2 5 5.58 48 3 59.7 68 37 10 21 48
Chance Adams R 29 1 2 5.77 26 4 43.7 51 28 7 16 28
Mike Ruff R 26 3 5 6.25 22 15 72.0 83 50 12 37 46
Geoff Hartlieb R 30 3 4 5.52 34 1 44.0 48 27 7 20 35
Eli Lingos L 28 2 3 5.62 30 2 49.7 58 31 8 22 32
Kyle Johnston R 27 2 4 5.88 32 6 52.0 58 34 8 30 38
Stephen Jones R 26 2 4 5.25 48 0 58.3 62 34 9 26 51
Daniel Bard R 39 3 4 5.44 46 0 44.7 43 27 7 28 46
Adam McKillican R 26 1 2 5.67 25 0 33.3 37 21 5 14 23
Ben Braymer L 30 3 5 6.39 16 14 62.0 76 44 11 34 35
PJ Poulin L 27 2 4 5.40 38 0 50.0 54 30 7 24 38
Phillips Valdez R 32 2 6 6.33 25 9 54.0 63 38 9 30 36
Alec Barger R 26 2 4 5.66 36 1 47.7 52 30 8 26 41
Matt Carasiti R 32 1 3 5.86 36 1 43.0 49 28 7 20 36
Brendan Hardy R 24 1 2 5.79 24 0 28.0 26 18 4 22 31
Jacob Kostyshock R 26 0 1 6.14 22 0 22.0 25 15 4 11 16
Evan Justice L 25 2 5 5.79 45 0 42.0 40 27 7 29 48
Will Gaddis R 28 2 4 6.41 25 5 53.3 70 38 9 25 22
Michael Petersen R 30 1 3 6.27 38 0 37.3 40 26 7 24 33
Bryce McGowan R 24 1 2 6.21 39 0 42.0 45 29 7 30 36
Riley Pint R 26 2 4 5.90 43 0 50.3 46 33 8 39 57
Nick Kennedy L 28 1 2 6.17 37 0 42.3 49 29 7 24 27
Kyle Wilcox R 30 2 6 6.21 41 0 42.0 42 29 7 34 42
Nick Kuzia R 28 3 5 6.04 40 0 47.7 53 32 8 27 35
Shelby Lackey R 26 0 2 7.33 24 0 23.3 24 19 4 22 20

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Germán Márquez 136.3 7.7 3.0 1.2 7.8% 19.9% .293 100 4.33 100 1.6
Cal Quantrill 127.7 5.9 3.0 1.3 7.5% 14.8% .294 96 5.06 104 1.3
Dakota Hudson 123.7 5.5 3.5 1.1 8.8% 13.8% .285 93 4.95 107 1.2
Anthony Molina 120.3 5.3 2.7 1.3 6.7% 13.2% .310 93 4.86 107 1.2
Kyle Freeland 137.3 5.7 2.7 1.4 6.8% 14.4% .307 91 5.10 110 1.1
Tanner Gordon 117.3 5.9 2.5 1.5 6.2% 14.9% .307 92 4.94 108 1.0
Jeff Criswell 112.0 7.5 3.9 1.4 9.8% 18.5% .301 91 4.99 110 1.0
Carson Palmquist 93.3 8.7 3.7 1.4 9.3% 22.1% .300 95 4.85 106 0.9
Joe Rock 98.0 7.1 3.7 1.3 9.2% 17.6% .302 92 4.95 108 0.9
Antonio Senzatela 99.0 5.5 2.6 1.2 6.6% 14.0% .313 93 4.76 107 0.9
Gabriel Hughes 83.0 7.0 3.3 1.3 8.2% 17.9% .302 95 4.72 105 0.9
Austin Gomber 118.3 6.5 2.8 1.5 7.2% 16.7% .297 89 5.01 112 0.9
Ryan Feltner 92.7 8.1 3.7 1.4 9.3% 20.3% .304 92 4.76 108 0.9
Nick Bush 75.0 6.7 2.3 1.6 5.9% 17.3% .303 90 4.82 111 0.6
Chris McMahon 78.0 5.9 2.8 1.4 6.9% 14.7% .311 89 4.99 112 0.6
Connor Seabold 100.7 7.8 2.5 1.4 6.3% 19.7% .316 88 4.70 113 0.6
Connor Van Scoyoc 102.0 6.0 3.7 1.4 9.0% 14.6% .303 85 5.46 117 0.6
Peter Lambert 95.3 7.4 3.6 1.4 9.0% 18.4% .304 88 5.05 113 0.6
Justin Lawrence 69.3 9.9 4.2 1.0 10.6% 25.1% .301 104 4.25 96 0.5
Jalen Beeks 63.3 8.7 3.6 1.4 8.8% 21.6% .317 95 4.71 105 0.5
Jake Bird 77.7 7.8 3.4 1.2 8.6% 19.8% .301 100 4.59 100 0.4
Ty Blach 87.0 5.8 2.3 1.4 5.7% 14.5% .320 87 4.92 116 0.4
Mitchell Kilkenny 72.3 5.0 2.7 1.4 6.8% 12.4% .308 87 5.20 115 0.4
Case Williams 104.0 5.4 3.9 1.5 9.4% 13.0% .307 82 5.63 122 0.4
Ryan Rolison 57.7 6.6 3.6 1.6 8.8% 16.1% .310 84 5.35 118 0.3
Andrew Quezada 87.7 5.0 3.5 1.4 8.4% 12.2% .310 83 5.51 121 0.3
Karl Kauffmann 112.0 5.5 4.2 1.3 10.1% 13.4% .308 81 5.46 124 0.3
Josh Rogers 94.7 4.6 3.0 1.7 7.6% 11.3% .296 82 5.85 122 0.2
Will Ethridge 66.7 5.5 3.6 1.4 8.9% 13.5% .303 82 5.46 122 0.2
Lucas Gilbreath 53.3 8.6 5.4 1.4 13.0% 20.7% .309 88 5.26 114 0.2
Noah Davis 89.7 6.7 4.4 1.4 10.8% 16.4% .304 80 5.70 125 0.2
Tyler Kinley 37.3 8.7 3.6 1.4 9.1% 22.0% .298 94 4.70 107 0.1
Blake Goldsberry 38.3 7.3 3.5 1.4 8.8% 18.2% .302 92 5.00 109 0.1
Dylan Spain 37.0 6.3 2.7 1.5 6.7% 16.0% .305 93 5.09 108 0.1
Victor Vodnik 46.3 8.5 5.1 1.4 12.2% 20.7% .303 90 5.13 111 0.1
Gavin Hollowell 52.0 9.2 3.6 1.4 9.3% 23.5% .303 95 4.72 106 0.1
Dugan Darnell 49.7 8.3 3.8 1.3 9.5% 20.8% .308 94 4.62 107 0.1
Nick Mears 39.3 10.1 5.5 1.4 13.4% 24.6% .304 94 4.98 106 0.1
Colten Schmidt 30.3 4.7 3.0 1.5 7.4% 11.8% .314 80 5.53 125 0.1
Thomas Ponticelli 63.3 6.1 4.1 1.4 9.9% 14.7% .304 83 5.51 120 0.1
Seth Halvorsen 16.3 5.5 2.8 1.1 7.0% 14.1% .296 96 4.54 104 0.0
Austin Kitchen 57.7 5.3 2.7 1.4 6.6% 13.3% .309 89 5.20 112 0.0
Chase Anderson 66.7 6.9 4.2 1.8 10.2% 16.8% .304 76 5.84 131 0.0
Reagan Todd 38.7 9.3 4.9 1.4 12.0% 22.9% .305 93 5.07 108 0.0
Matt Koch 59.7 7.2 3.2 1.5 7.9% 18.0% .314 85 5.08 118 0.0
Chance Adams 43.7 5.8 3.3 1.4 8.2% 14.4% .308 82 5.36 122 0.0
Mike Ruff 72.0 5.8 4.6 1.5 11.0% 13.7% .302 76 6.10 132 -0.1
Geoff Hartlieb 44.0 7.2 4.1 1.4 9.9% 17.3% .304 86 5.30 116 -0.1
Eli Lingos 49.7 5.8 4.0 1.4 9.7% 14.1% .307 84 5.45 118 -0.1
Kyle Johnston 52.0 6.6 5.2 1.4 12.2% 15.5% .305 81 5.81 124 -0.1
Stephen Jones 58.3 7.9 4.0 1.4 9.9% 19.5% .306 90 5.11 111 -0.1
Daniel Bard 44.7 9.3 5.6 1.4 13.7% 22.5% .298 87 5.45 115 -0.1
Adam McKillican 33.3 6.2 3.8 1.4 9.3% 15.2% .302 84 5.36 119 -0.1
Ben Braymer 62.0 5.1 4.9 1.6 11.6% 11.9% .308 74 6.22 135 -0.1
PJ Poulin 50.0 6.8 4.3 1.3 10.7% 16.9% .303 88 5.18 114 -0.1
Phillips Valdez 54.0 6.0 5.0 1.5 11.8% 14.2% .307 75 6.20 133 -0.2
Alec Barger 47.7 7.7 4.9 1.5 11.8% 18.6% .308 84 5.54 119 -0.2
Matt Carasiti 43.0 7.5 4.2 1.5 10.0% 18.0% .318 81 5.30 123 -0.2
Brendan Hardy 28.0 10.0 7.1 1.3 16.2% 22.8% .301 82 5.68 122 -0.2
Jacob Kostyshock 22.0 6.5 4.5 1.6 10.9% 15.8% .304 77 6.35 129 -0.2
Evan Justice 42.0 10.3 6.2 1.5 14.6% 24.2% .306 82 5.71 122 -0.3
Will Gaddis 53.3 3.7 4.2 1.5 9.9% 8.7% .314 74 6.09 135 -0.3
Michael Petersen 37.3 8.0 5.8 1.7 13.6% 18.8% .303 76 6.17 132 -0.4
Bryce McGowan 42.0 7.7 6.4 1.5 14.7% 17.6% .304 76 6.06 131 -0.4
Riley Pint 50.3 10.2 7.0 1.4 16.0% 23.4% .295 80 5.86 124 -0.4
Nick Kennedy 42.3 5.7 5.1 1.5 12.0% 13.5% .302 77 6.11 130 -0.4
Kyle Wilcox 42.0 9.0 7.3 1.5 16.3% 20.2% .302 76 5.99 131 -0.4
Nick Kuzia 47.7 6.6 5.1 1.5 12.1% 15.6% .302 79 6.05 127 -0.4
Shelby Lackey 23.3 7.7 8.5 1.5 18.5% 16.8% .294 65 7.24 154 -0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Germán Márquez Mike Foltynewicz Jeremy Guthrie Sonny Gray
Cal Quantrill Jason Hammel Roberto Hernandez Jeremy Guthrie
Dakota Hudson Chi Chi González Steve Sparks Tom Brewer
Anthony Molina Buddy Carlyle 카라이어 Dave Borkowski Ariel Jurado
Kyle Freeland Ken Holtzman Joe Saunders Kirk Rueter
Tanner Gordon Daniel Mengden Ariel Jurado Kyle Lohse
Jeff Criswell Dave Freisleben Allen Webster 웹스터 Chuck Locke
Carson Palmquist Patrick Sandoval Mike Connolly Brad Havens
Joe Rock Ronnie Driver Kevin Morton Henry Werland
Antonio Senzatela Ivan Nova Chien-Ming Wang Mark Bomback
Gabriel Hughes Troy Bradford Edgar Ramos Leonardo Gonzalez
Austin Gomber Dennis Rasmussen John Danks Mike McCormick
Ryan Feltner Claudio Vargas Tom Griffin Patrick Johnson
Nick Bush Evan Grills Joe Rogers Anthony Boughner
Chris McMahon Jamie Brown 브라운 Jim Farr Daryl Thompson
Connor Seabold Seth Lugo Brad Lincoln Paolo Espino
Connor Van Scoyoc Jacob Turner 터너 Kyle McGowin Brad Salmon
Peter Lambert Parker Bridwell Roberto Rodriguez Scott Gardner
Justin Lawrence Curt Leskanic Ike Delock Don Robinson
Jalen Beeks Lance Painter Al Yaylian Mike Paul
Jake Bird Adam Warren Jim Johnson Vladimir Nunez
Ty Blach Greg Smith Adam Pettyjohn Don Rudolph
Mitchell Kilkenny Ismael Castillo Joe Niekro Dave Osteen
Case Williams Deolis Guerra Andrew Sopko Clayton Bittinger
Ryan Rolison Mike Skane Austin Sodders Tommy MacLane
Andrew Quezada William Hall Brian Barber Tanner Anderson
Karl Kauffmann Chris Jensen Jim Stump Merrill Kelly 켈리
Josh Rogers Ryan Rowland-Smith Michael Roth Allan Anderson
Will Ethridge Beiker Graterol Rickey Keeton Jimmy Whisman
Lucas Gilbreath Angel Miranda Dave Geisel Ryan Wing
Noah Davis Allen Webster Jake Thompson John Leister
Tyler Kinley Ryan Tepera Dave Tobik Gregg Olson
Blake Goldsberry Joe Cotton Bruce Thompson Pete Della Ratta
Dylan Spain Craig Glassco Chad Schroeder Alberto Montes
Victor Vodnik Bob Blyth Chris Lemp Trevor Hurley
Gavin Hollowell Phil Hennigan Kyle Martin Josh Martin
Dugan Darnell Gene Stechschulte Federico Castaneda Not that Edgar Martinez
Nick Mears Josh Sharpless Mark Acre Brad Lesley
Colten Schmidt Robert Warren Jeff Huber Jamie Walker
Thomas Ponticelli James Sprankle Douglas Gentry Theodore Ellis
Seth Halvorsen Dick Coffman Charles Giddens Pedro Borbon
Austin Kitchen Bryan Gore Trevor Enders David Speer
Chase Anderson Joe Niekro Joe Bowman Ken Ray 레이
Reagan Todd Josh Edgin Jaime Cerda Steve Sinclair
Matt Koch Daniel McCutchen David Shepard Tom McCarthy
Chance Adams Deryk Hooker Scott Huntsman Cody Evans
Mike Ruff Nick McCully Ralph Treuel Craig Chamberlain
Geoff Hartlieb Jim Winn Victor Marte Hank Behrman
Eli Lingos Lou Marone Ron Locke Mark Hendrickson
Kyle Johnston A.J. Morris Gary Parmenter Edgar Martinez
Stephen Jones Steve Mintz Jason Arnold Chris Bennett
Daniel Bard Don McMahon Turk Lown Jose Valverde
Adam McKillican Ray Soff Dale Hrovat Dan Brown
Ben Braymer Joe Magrane Tommy Shirley Bryan Oelkers
PJ Poulin Kevin Hickey Mariano Gomez Mike Dalton
Phillips Valdez Craig McMurtry Seth Simmons Thomas Arruda
Alec Barger Kevin Vance Derek Diaz Bo Schultz
Matt Carasiti Victor Marte Wes Gardner Darryl Scott
Brendan Hardy Steven Lovins Lon Morton Mike Barba
Jacob Kostyshock Jeff Brueggemann Eddie Moore Ron Kaufman
Evan Justice Lee Stoppelman Omar Duran Ryan Buchter
Will Gaddis Hector Ramirez Ricky Brooks Ryan Cummings
Michael Petersen Doug Bochtler Jesus Colome Derek Eitel
Bryce McGowan Amilcar Correa Jhondaniel Medina Eduardo Sierra
Riley Pint Todd Jones John Morlan Gene Pentz
Nick Kennedy Colin Young Chris Petrini Len Whitehouse
Kyle Wilcox Calvin Jones Ryan Bukvich Roger Salkeld
Nick Kuzia Frank Kamfonik Ryan Perry James Thornton
Shelby Lackey Brian Kolbe Vaughn Kovach Richard Negrette

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Germán Márquez .270 .338 .431 .235 .287 .404 2.3 0.8 4.23 5.44
Cal Quantrill .265 .336 .451 .281 .335 .454 1.8 0.6 4.52 5.60
Dakota Hudson .272 .352 .443 .255 .319 .400 1.8 0.6 4.10 4.98
Anthony Molina .298 .352 .483 .281 .324 .449 1.7 0.6 4.60 5.68
Kyle Freeland .280 .329 .455 .288 .342 .481 1.8 0.3 4.71 5.99
Tanner Gordon .277 .329 .459 .292 .333 .488 1.7 0.5 4.59 5.63
Jeff Criswell .262 .345 .437 .267 .336 .458 1.5 0.2 4.74 5.95
Carson Palmquist .248 .336 .385 .256 .340 .450 1.5 0.2 4.42 5.78
Joe Rock .261 .338 .417 .271 .344 .451 1.4 0.4 4.64 5.71
Antonio Senzatela .286 .347 .457 .290 .335 .459 1.3 0.4 4.61 5.67
Gabriel Hughes .282 .343 .468 .256 .318 .420 1.3 0.4 4.44 5.64
Austin Gomber .250 .299 .397 .282 .338 .497 1.5 0.2 4.70 6.02
Ryan Feltner .259 .337 .440 .264 .330 .443 1.4 0.3 4.58 5.77
Nick Bush .278 .327 .467 .277 .317 .479 1.0 0.1 4.71 6.02
Chris McMahon .307 .367 .484 .269 .315 .461 1.0 0.2 4.81 5.94
Connor Seabold .272 .343 .461 .278 .325 .458 1.2 0.1 4.69 6.02
Connor Van Scoyoc .278 .366 .460 .282 .350 .475 1.0 0.1 5.18 6.07
Peter Lambert .272 .356 .478 .267 .330 .431 1.1 0.1 4.82 5.92
Justin Lawrence .246 .347 .413 .227 .317 .355 1.1 -0.2 3.81 5.50
Jalen Beeks .257 .325 .446 .272 .343 .450 1.1 -0.1 4.12 5.97
Jake Bird .264 .348 .451 .253 .322 .395 0.9 -0.2 4.18 5.53
Ty Blach .274 .320 .416 .306 .348 .516 0.8 -0.1 4.93 6.16
Mitchell Kilkenny .276 .333 .448 .307 .357 .503 0.7 0.0 5.05 6.03
Case Williams .286 .365 .500 .293 .358 .472 0.8 -0.2 5.34 6.34
Ryan Rolison .286 .354 .471 .283 .348 .482 0.6 0.0 5.11 6.34
Andrew Quezada .307 .380 .524 .284 .341 .452 0.8 -0.1 5.24 6.35
Karl Kauffmann .308 .397 .524 .268 .337 .416 0.7 -0.3 5.47 6.44
Josh Rogers .250 .297 .406 .313 .375 .550 0.6 -0.4 5.36 6.48
Will Ethridge .295 .378 .488 .273 .340 .448 0.5 -0.2 5.37 6.40
Lucas Gilbreath .240 .348 .440 .272 .371 .434 0.6 -0.2 4.74 6.17
Noah Davis .285 .392 .517 .265 .350 .407 0.6 -0.4 5.39 6.69
Tyler Kinley .232 .312 .449 .273 .337 .442 0.5 -0.3 4.19 6.23
Blake Goldsberry .257 .333 .429 .277 .344 .470 0.4 -0.2 4.52 6.10
Dylan Spain .265 .324 .485 .293 .352 .463 0.3 -0.1 4.61 5.83
Victor Vodnik .259 .370 .435 .255 .339 .439 0.4 -0.3 4.61 6.00
Gavin Hollowell .263 .358 .463 .241 .314 .398 0.5 -0.4 4.14 5.97
Dugan Darnell .253 .333 .451 .267 .339 .419 0.4 -0.3 4.40 6.05
Nick Mears .257 .373 .457 .232 .333 .402 0.4 -0.3 4.34 6.06
Colten Schmidt .275 .341 .400 .314 .368 .547 0.2 -0.1 5.32 6.80
Thomas Ponticelli .281 .362 .446 .279 .357 .493 0.4 -0.4 5.19 6.43
Seth Halvorsen .281 .343 .438 .265 .297 .412 0.2 -0.1 4.17 5.86
Austin Kitchen .250 .315 .375 .312 .363 .522 0.3 -0.3 4.80 5.93
Chase Anderson .250 .343 .435 .306 .376 .551 0.3 -0.5 5.56 7.15
Reagan Todd .260 .351 .360 .248 .353 .475 0.3 -0.3 4.29 6.06
Matt Koch .268 .346 .455 .290 .343 .481 0.4 -0.4 4.76 6.38
Chance Adams .286 .362 .476 .287 .346 .479 0.2 -0.4 5.11 6.54
Mike Ruff .282 .387 .504 .284 .374 .463 0.3 -0.5 5.73 6.95
Geoff Hartlieb .282 .358 .494 .261 .349 .424 0.2 -0.4 4.86 6.57
Eli Lingos .284 .355 .418 .287 .355 .500 0.2 -0.4 5.06 6.40
Kyle Johnston .268 .379 .423 .283 .374 .487 0.2 -0.5 5.31 6.69
Stephen Jones .269 .358 .481 .264 .342 .419 0.3 -0.5 4.65 6.05
Daniel Bard .253 .373 .462 .241 .357 .398 0.3 -0.7 4.48 7.18
Adam McKillican .290 .380 .484 .264 .333 .444 0.0 -0.3 5.08 6.46
Ben Braymer .280 .362 .463 .303 .391 .520 0.2 -0.5 5.91 7.16
PJ Poulin .254 .338 .388 .278 .362 .466 0.2 -0.5 4.68 6.10
Phillips Valdez .296 .402 .510 .276 .375 .447 0.1 -0.5 5.70 7.17
Alec Barger .286 .371 .484 .257 .356 .446 0.1 -0.5 5.09 6.42
Matt Carasiti .304 .396 .506 .260 .333 .438 0.1 -0.6 5.10 6.94
Brendan Hardy .264 .400 .472 .218 .371 .364 0.0 -0.5 5.09 6.71
Jacob Kostyshock .273 .385 .500 .289 .389 .489 -0.1 -0.4 5.57 6.87
Evan Justice .216 .355 .314 .259 .391 .491 0.1 -0.6 4.96 6.73
Will Gaddis .320 .398 .515 .303 .363 .516 -0.1 -0.6 5.90 7.13
Michael Petersen .257 .373 .429 .278 .389 .519 -0.1 -0.7 5.39 7.49
Bryce McGowan .266 .402 .456 .270 .371 .461 -0.1 -0.7 5.46 7.09
Riley Pint .239 .369 .446 .235 .397 .402 0.0 -1.0 5.10 7.09
Nick Kennedy .254 .362 .407 .298 .391 .509 -0.2 -0.7 5.59 7.04
Kyle Wilcox .266 .408 .468 .244 .365 .430 0.0 -0.9 5.16 7.66
Nick Kuzia .314 .412 .581 .245 .352 .377 -0.2 -0.9 5.38 6.90
Shelby Lackey .273 .429 .455 .250 .422 .479 -0.3 -0.7 6.49 8.79

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


2024 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

Are the Cubs back to their mid-2010s form? That’s a bit of a stretch, but these Cubs showed they have a live pulse, not falling out of playoff contention until the final week of the 2023 season. Cody Bellinger, one of the reasons the offense was so potent (third in the National League in runs scored), turned out to be one of the best pillow-contract signings of all time. Perhaps a little too good, as it was enough for Bellinger to decline his side of a $25 million mutual option for 2024. The Cubs could still sign Bellinger, but even if they do, it’s not a great bet they’ll get the same production as last year. ZiPS is a bit more optimistic than Steamer, but it still projects a returning Bellinger to “give back” some of his contact and a significant chunk of his power. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognosgtications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

When I look at Cincinnati’s offense, I’m incredibly confused. By “confused” I don’t mean that the offense is lousy, just that its construction is utterly bizarre in a lot of areas. For example, even if you write Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz in permanent marker at second base and shortstop, respectively, you still have a team that’s overflowing with plausible third base candidates: Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to start. Given this hot corner glut, the Reds signed… one of the best third basemen available, in the form of Jeimer Candelario, but not, mind you, to be the starting third baseman. And while he’ll see time there, it’s extremely likely he’s going to get a ton of time at first base and designated hitter. One of the main reasons to like Candelario is that he hits like he does while playing a very competent third base. The more time he sees at 1B/DH, the more it’s the equivalent of buying a sports car to use as a step ladder to change the light bulb in your garage.

What’s more, many of the players who’ll be shifting down the defensive spectrum doesn’t really have much in the way of synergy. Candelario, Steer, and Encarnacion-Strand are all essentially right-handed hitters in profile (Candelario has the splits of a right-handed batter), so it’s not like one of those sneaky Gabe Kapler platoons.

Given how much ownership has cried poor, I don’t want to discourage the Reds from spending, but if they’re going to grow payroll, why not spend to address actual team weaknesses? Spending more money and getting bang for your buck are not mutually exclusive propositions. When I expressed confusion on Twitter about the Reds earlier this offseason, I was assured by fans of the team that the roster would make more sense after all the trades they were certainly going to make. Well, those moves haven’t come.

But who knows? The Reds do have a lot of talent on the roster, even if their players are deployed in a rather odd way. McLain is terrific, and I think De La Cruz’s late-season drop-off removed the over-exuberance that he was going to be Fernando Tatis Jr.; he’s now about properly rated for what he is. Tyler Stephenson ought to have a better season than he did in 2023, and ZiPS projects the outfield to be adequate if healthy, though the computer can hardly be described as enthusiastic. ZiPS is kind of interested in Blake Dunn as someone who could eventually push Stuart Fairchild off the roster. As we’ve seen with them before, the Reds likely missed the window to get a good return for India, but he’s still probably a roughly league-average player and isn’t going to get any more valuable as a role player.

I’ll be generous and give the team the benefit of the doubt that there’s a plan to trade off some of the surplus talent here before it’s frittered away by time and attrition. But they’re running out of time to do it before the start of spring training.

Pitchers

ZiPS likes a lot of Cincinnati’s hitters, but it’s less enthusiastic about the pitching. That’s not so much a rotation problem, though several of the starters have worse projections than last year. It’s really odd that the Reds made a playoff run and it turned out that it have very little to do with breakouts from Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, or Nick Lodolo, all three of whom were some combination of mediocre and injured in 2023. ZiPS is a believer in Andrew Abbott in the sense that he’s a deserving part of the rotation, but its expectations are tempered a bit. Greene, Ashcraft, and Lodolo all have worse outlooks than they did at this time last year, though that can hardly be a surprise.

[One of the Greenes came out as Green, and this has been fixed -DS]

Unlike some of the other Cincy signings, I really like the Frankie Montas pickup. There’s a good chance that he doesn’t contribute anything at all in Cincinnati, but the upside, given his history, is really quite interesting. I wish the team signed players like this more often, ones who represent a real jackpot for the team if they hit, say, their 70th percentile projections and stay healthy. The computer likes Nick Martinez as a useful swingman.

ZiPS absolutely hates the bullpen, though in the end, it has the group projected for the same 2.3 WAR that Steamer does. ZiPS likes Alexis Díaz, Fernando Cruz, and Martinez when he’s used in relief, but is lukewarm everywhere else.

I think the Emilio Pagán signing was the worst bullpen addition any team has made in free agency so far this winter, but I was surprised that ZiPS likes Pagán even less. I see this as a good example of a team thinking that the season before is the same thing as a projection, and ignoring the red flags. Pagán was basically successful because he suddenly went from being a terrible home run pitcher to a great one. Home runs allowed is a terrible stat, so terrible in fact that it makes xFIP useful, when it really should not be. Pagán has a long history of allowing a lot of homers in pitcher-friendly environments and actually had the worst average exit velocity allowed in his career in 2023. He remained a fly ball pitcher, and now he goes to one of the worst environments in baseball for a pitcher who allows a lot of flies. This is like the anti-Dodgers signing. That’s not a guarantee that Pagán will be lousy — relievers are quite volatile — but I really don’t like the odds.

So what does this all add up to? If the projections are to believed, about a .500 team, just where the Reds finished last year. Given the team’s young talent, I wish this franchise was taking a more practical approach to actually improving the roster.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Matt McLain R 24 SS 548 481 73 121 27 4 20 81 56 149 18 6
Jeimer Candelario B 30 3B 560 497 75 129 32 2 23 84 52 129 4 1
Elly de la Cruz B 22 SS 616 563 92 136 25 8 23 87 49 191 39 10
TJ Friedl L 28 CF 523 457 66 119 19 7 13 65 46 88 18 5
Spencer Steer R 26 LF 646 568 79 150 34 3 23 90 63 135 10 3
Jonathan India R 27 2B 548 471 77 119 26 1 16 63 55 114 11 3
Tyler Stephenson R 27 C 455 404 55 104 19 1 13 56 43 109 0 0
Christian Encarnacion-Strand R 24 1B 559 512 73 134 26 3 28 97 36 157 4 1
Blake Dunn R 25 CF 521 451 72 109 12 3 17 78 41 143 28 4
Will Benson L 26 RF 468 397 69 90 19 6 15 58 63 145 18 3
Jason Vosler L 30 3B 424 382 55 88 17 1 18 55 36 120 2 1
Noelvi Marte R 22 3B 546 496 69 133 22 2 14 69 42 116 17 6
Jake Fraley L 29 RF 367 320 42 80 15 1 13 55 40 79 15 4
Jose Barrero R 26 SS 467 424 52 94 19 2 16 62 28 156 13 3
Stuart Fairchild R 28 LF 355 311 45 73 15 3 11 46 29 98 9 3
Luke Maile R 33 C 212 187 21 46 12 0 5 23 19 58 1 0
Matheu Nelson R 25 C 382 342 43 69 11 1 13 48 28 130 2 1
Mark Mathias R 29 2B 308 269 33 64 12 0 8 39 32 83 7 2
Edwin Arroyo B 20 SS 572 526 71 122 23 8 13 68 35 151 16 5
Cade Hunter L 23 C 434 388 49 81 8 0 13 51 35 141 3 2
Jacob Hurtubise L 26 LF 423 354 65 88 9 4 3 47 45 77 22 6
Conner Capel L 27 CF 462 414 49 97 17 3 10 49 42 110 12 6
P.J. Higgins R 31 C 344 308 37 73 15 1 7 42 29 87 1 1
Curt Casali R 35 C 167 142 16 32 6 0 4 17 19 47 0 1
Wil Myers R 33 RF 338 304 37 75 16 1 12 43 30 101 4 2
Nick Martini L 34 LF 424 369 53 88 14 2 12 55 44 102 0 1
Matt Reynolds R 33 2B 424 379 46 86 21 2 10 48 39 133 5 1
Hernan Perez 페레즈 R 33 SS 286 264 32 64 11 1 8 32 19 74 8 3
Jhonny Pereda R 28 C 274 245 24 60 12 0 4 25 27 54 0 1
Ivan Johnson B 25 2B 364 333 42 71 15 2 10 44 23 117 8 2
Trey Mancini R 32 1B 457 409 54 100 22 1 15 56 39 118 0 1
Allan Cerda R 24 CF 382 331 44 63 15 2 14 50 40 149 3 4
Levi Jordan R 28 SS 334 300 37 68 13 1 5 34 26 79 6 1
Quincy McAfee R 26 LF 384 334 45 72 15 2 9 45 33 96 4 3
Francisco Urbaez R 26 2B 338 307 34 73 13 1 4 34 26 69 2 1
Joey Votto L 40 1B 365 312 37 66 14 1 14 46 45 100 0 1
Austin Wynns R 33 C 236 212 23 48 8 0 5 24 18 57 1 1
Michael Trautwein L 24 C 285 256 27 51 8 1 4 28 23 95 2 1
Daniel Vellojin L 24 C 310 274 29 55 11 1 6 28 32 84 2 1
Jose Torres R 24 SS 366 334 40 67 10 2 7 36 21 122 8 3
Steven Leyton R 25 2B 313 297 37 66 17 3 6 36 8 73 2 1
Tyler Callihan L 24 2B 495 455 45 102 22 4 7 48 29 133 13 3
Drew Mount L 28 RF 187 172 24 38 5 1 4 23 9 58 2 2
Andy Yerzy L 25 DH 335 297 32 61 12 1 12 41 31 104 2 1
Eric Yang R 26 C 206 182 17 36 8 0 2 18 17 61 0 1
Erik González R 32 SS 419 393 33 90 16 1 3 40 20 104 3 3
Miguel Hernandez R 25 2B 279 262 29 62 9 1 4 26 14 67 2 1
Ruben Ibarra R 25 1B 367 327 34 69 11 0 12 47 28 112 1 1
Rece Hinds R 23 RF 428 397 47 84 17 3 17 61 22 166 10 5
Alexander Ovalles L 23 LF 325 287 38 64 11 2 6 33 31 90 4 2
Ashton Creal R 25 CF 193 169 22 31 6 1 3 18 14 79 5 2
Nicholas Northcut R 25 3B 371 347 38 70 17 1 15 46 18 147 0 1
Brian Rey R 26 DH 280 258 26 62 10 1 4 31 11 54 2 2
James Free B 26 DH 424 385 37 88 17 1 11 48 33 106 0 1
Nick Quintana R 26 3B 338 301 34 57 15 0 6 34 31 98 1 1
Alex McGarry L 26 1B 441 412 42 91 18 3 13 53 24 144 7 3
Justice Thompson R 23 CF 391 352 40 68 13 2 7 39 34 149 7 3
Austin Callahan L 23 3B 483 453 46 91 25 2 7 47 24 166 2 1
Jack Rogers L 25 LF 405 371 41 73 15 4 10 47 28 174 5 5

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Matt McLain 548 .252 .339 .449 108 .198 .324 3 3.2 .341 79
Jeimer Candelario 560 .260 .338 .471 113 .211 .307 -2 2.6 .347 80
Elly de la Cruz 616 .242 .304 .437 95 .195 .324 -2 2.2 .317 87
TJ Friedl 523 .260 .340 .418 101 .158 .298 1 2.1 .330 71
Spencer Steer 646 .264 .347 .456 112 .192 .310 -4 2.0 .347 93
Jonathan India 548 .253 .350 .414 103 .161 .302 -7 1.7 .336 72
Tyler Stephenson 455 .257 .334 .406 97 .149 .323 -3 1.6 .323 55
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 559 .262 .320 .488 112 .227 .324 -1 1.5 .344 81
Blake Dunn 521 .242 .334 .395 94 .153 .316 -5 1.4 .322 67
Will Benson 468 .227 .338 .418 101 .191 .316 0 1.2 .331 61
Jason Vosler 424 .230 .300 .421 90 .191 .287 4 1.2 .311 49
Noelvi Marte 546 .268 .330 .405 95 .137 .325 -5 1.1 .320 72
Jake Fraley 367 .250 .341 .425 103 .175 .294 1 1.0 .333 51
Jose Barrero 467 .222 .283 .389 77 .167 .310 1 0.8 .292 51
Stuart Fairchild 355 .235 .318 .408 92 .174 .307 3 0.8 .317 43
Luke Maile 212 .246 .327 .390 91 .144 .331 -1 0.7 .316 24
Matheu Nelson 382 .202 .279 .354 68 .152 .281 5 0.7 .279 35
Mark Mathias 308 .238 .325 .372 86 .134 .315 0 0.6 .308 35
Edwin Arroyo 572 .232 .285 .380 76 .148 .301 -1 0.6 .288 62
Cade Hunter 434 .209 .288 .330 65 .121 .291 5 0.6 .275 38
Jacob Hurtubise 423 .249 .359 .322 84 .073 .310 0 0.5 .313 48
Conner Capel 462 .234 .308 .362 78 .128 .296 1 0.5 .296 51
P.J. Higgins 344 .237 .306 .360 77 .123 .308 -1 0.4 .294 35
Curt Casali 167 .225 .327 .352 82 .127 .308 0 0.4 .303 17
Wil Myers 338 .247 .315 .424 95 .178 .330 0 0.4 .319 42
Nick Martini 424 .238 .333 .385 91 .146 .298 -1 0.3 .317 48
Matt Reynolds 424 .227 .300 .372 78 .145 .322 -1 0.3 .293 44
Hernan Perez 286 .242 .294 .383 79 .140 .308 -2 0.2 .293 33
Jhonny Pereda 274 .245 .318 .343 77 .098 .299 -3 0.2 .294 27
Ivan Johnson 364 .213 .275 .360 68 .147 .296 3 0.2 .278 36
Trey Mancini 457 .244 .317 .413 93 .169 .308 0 0.2 .316 54
Allan Cerda 382 .190 .296 .375 78 .184 .292 -1 0.1 .296 39
Levi Jordan 334 .227 .297 .327 67 .100 .292 -1 0.0 .279 31
Quincy McAfee 384 .216 .304 .353 75 .138 .275 4 0.0 .292 38
Francisco Urbaez 338 .238 .305 .326 69 .088 .295 1 0.0 .282 31
Joey Votto 365 .212 .321 .397 90 .186 .263 -1 0.0 .315 40
Austin Wynns 236 .226 .295 .335 68 .108 .287 -3 -0.1 .280 22
Michael Trautwein 285 .199 .277 .285 51 .086 .299 3 -0.1 .255 21
Daniel Vellojin 310 .201 .288 .314 61 .113 .266 -1 -0.1 .271 26
Jose Torres 366 .201 .253 .305 49 .105 .293 7 -0.2 .247 29
Steven Leyton 313 .222 .256 .360 62 .138 .275 2 -0.3 .266 28
Tyler Callihan 495 .224 .276 .336 62 .112 .302 1 -0.3 .269 46
Drew Mount 187 .221 .278 .331 62 .110 .309 1 -0.4 .270 17
Andy Yerzy 335 .205 .293 .374 76 .168 .271 0 -0.5 .292 33
Eric Yang 206 .198 .286 .275 51 .077 .286 -2 -0.5 .258 15
Erik González 419 .229 .269 .298 51 .069 .304 5 -0.5 .251 33
Miguel Hernandez 279 .237 .277 .324 60 .088 .304 0 -0.5 .265 24
Ruben Ibarra 367 .211 .289 .355 71 .144 .281 3 -0.5 .283 34
Rece Hinds 428 .212 .262 .398 73 .186 .313 3 -0.5 .282 45
Alexander Ovalles 325 .223 .303 .338 71 .115 .304 -1 -0.6 .286 31
Ashton Creal 193 .183 .268 .284 48 .101 .322 -2 -0.7 .251 15
Nicholas Northcut 371 .202 .248 .386 66 .184 .297 -3 -0.7 .272 34
Brian Rey 280 .240 .293 .333 67 .093 .290 0 -0.7 .278 26
James Free 424 .229 .292 .364 74 .135 .287 0 -0.8 .287 41
Nick Quintana 338 .189 .275 .299 54 .110 .259 -2 -1.0 .259 25
Alex McGarry 441 .221 .268 .374 69 .153 .306 0 -1.1 .277 44
Justice Thompson 391 .193 .271 .301 53 .108 .311 -3 -1.2 .257 31
Austin Callahan 483 .201 .244 .311 47 .110 .300 3 -1.4 .243 35
Jack Rogers 405 .197 .262 .340 59 .143 .337 -4 -1.8 .264 36

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Matt McLain Brandon Lowe Rickie Weeks Jr. Bernie Friberg
Jeimer Candelario Jim Fregosi Joe Cronin Bobby Prescott
Elly de la Cruz Howard Johnson Oneil Cruz Bobby Witt Jr.
TJ Friedl Cedric Mullins Johnny Damon Kevin Kiermaier
Spencer Steer Carlos May Bob Elliott Dom DiMaggio
Jonathan India Dan Rohn Junior Spivey Tim Ireland
Tyler Stephenson Jimmie Coker John Ramos Ron Hassey
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Kelly Snider Ron Jackson Lee May
Blake Dunn Wilbert Hammond Cameron Maybin Allen Battle
Will Benson Rick Monday Ray Lankford Eric Stuckenschneider
Jason Vosler Mike Pagliarulo Dave Coleman Roy Staiger
Noelvi Marte Dave Anderson Chad Curtis Joe Foy
Jake Fraley Bernie Neis Lee Mazzilli Jerry White
Jose Barrero Carlos Duncan Tyler Greene Haley Young
Stuart Fairchild Antonio Perez Phillip Ervin Jose Gonzalez
Luke Maile Curt Casali Ryan Lavarnway Alex Trevino
Matheu Nelson Jim Campbell Jeff Hulse John Upshaw
Mark Mathias Steve Tolleson Dickie Thon Russ Johnson
Edwin Arroyo Alen Hanson Brett Lawrie Nate Oliver
Cade Hunter Leonard Merullo Bill Plummer Marc Sullivan
Jacob Hurtubise Billy Burns Mike Cole Myles Straw
Conner Capel Brock Davis Steve Lyons Calvin Murray
P.J. Higgins John Baker Ray Orteig Bruce Edwards
Curt Casali Duffy Dyer Matt Treanor Jose Lobaton
Wil Myers Todd Hollandsworth Adam Rosales Carlos Gómez
Nick Martini Sal Taormina Not That Joe Morgan Sam West
Matt Reynolds Jerry Priddy Shane Halter Reid Brignac
Hernan Perez Eric McNair Bill Hunnefield Hernán Pérez
Jhonny Pereda Michel Hernandez Shawn Zarraga Cam Carreon
Ivan Johnson Tony Thomas Mike Benjamin Taylor Snyder
Trey Mancini Wil Cordero Shane Spencer Jason Cooper
Allan Cerda Don Young Brandon Boggs Chris Estep
Levi Jordan Terry Harmon Wes Long David Kiriakos
Quincy McAfee Mike McGee Mike Koritko Bob Servoss
Francisco Urbaez Ever Magallanes Brian Oliver Dave Pflasterer
Joey Votto Dan Johnson Mark Teixeira Dusty Rhodes
Austin Wynns Ray Hayworth Alberto Castillo Juan Espino
Michael Trautwein James Moldenhauer Ralph Holding Dallas Tarleton
Daniel Vellojin Tom Magrann Jim Johnson Jeffrey DeWillis
Jose Torres Andres Duncan Jose Garcia Deivy Batista
Steven Leyton Bobby Dickerson Robbie Shields Rich Ozarowski
Tyler Callihan Juan Perez Scott Richardson Dale Mollenhauer
Drew Mount Tyson Gillies Chris Powell Oscar Brown
Andy Yerzy Jeff Kipila Rock Shoulders Paul Campbell
Eric Yang Sammy Rodriguez Keith Anderson Mike Morland
Erik González Esteban Beltre Jorge Velandia Jose Olmeda
Miguel Hernandez Ryan Miller John Love Tom Sommers
Ruben Ibarra Pat Castiglia Dustin Brisson Chris Burke
Rece Hinds Alejandro Sanchez Ike Blessitt Fred Mims
Alexander Ovalles Jason Jackson Tim Knight John Sharkey
Ashton Creal Todd Hobson Jason Frome Justin Arneson
Nicholas Northcut Corey Erickson James Plant Kevin Eberwein
Brian Rey Kewby Meyer Sammy Diaz Nick Dini
James Free Mike Jones Mike Ibarra Juan Tejeda
Nick Quintana Jim Allen Ray Webster Steve Fanning
Alex McGarry Barry Wesson Garry Maddox Mike Mooney
Justice Thompson Estevan Florial Korry Howell Lane Thomas
Austin Callahan Jack Howell Dan Gamache Welinson Baez
Jack Rogers Carlo Testa Kody Kaiser Tyler Frost

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Matt McLain .275 .366 .504 125 4.5 .227 .316 .400 91 2.0
Jeimer Candelario .284 .366 .539 136 4.1 .230 .313 .416 94 1.4
Elly de la Cruz .273 .332 .501 116 3.9 .215 .278 .378 74 0.5
TJ Friedl .286 .368 .464 120 3.3 .237 .318 .370 85 1.0
Spencer Steer .290 .368 .517 133 3.5 .237 .321 .403 94 0.5
Jonathan India .279 .378 .469 123 2.9 .229 .326 .362 85 0.5
Tyler Stephenson .286 .362 .460 116 2.7 .229 .307 .352 76 0.4
Christian Encarnacion-Strand .286 .348 .561 134 3.1 .229 .292 .430 90 0.1
Blake Dunn .268 .361 .446 114 2.7 .214 .307 .340 74 0.2
Will Benson .255 .368 .484 120 2.4 .198 .311 .365 79 0.0
Jason Vosler .255 .323 .479 110 2.2 .204 .275 .372 73 0.3
Noelvi Marte .295 .357 .462 116 2.6 .245 .306 .360 80 0.0
Jake Fraley .276 .366 .482 121 1.8 .227 .318 .377 86 0.2
Jose Barrero .245 .307 .441 97 2.0 .195 .254 .333 57 -0.4
Stuart Fairchild .260 .344 .466 112 1.6 .206 .290 .352 70 -0.2
Luke Maile .274 .354 .447 110 1.2 .217 .297 .341 70 0.1
Matheu Nelson .233 .309 .408 88 1.6 .176 .251 .307 49 -0.2
Mark Mathias .264 .353 .424 105 1.4 .208 .293 .323 67 -0.1
Edwin Arroyo .257 .312 .437 96 2.0 .210 .261 .332 59 -0.7
Cade Hunter .243 .320 .384 87 1.8 .181 .260 .281 46 -0.5
Jacob Hurtubise .276 .385 .366 101 1.4 .222 .332 .283 68 -0.4
Conner Capel .259 .332 .405 94 1.3 .212 .280 .320 63 -0.5
P.J. Higgins .264 .332 .403 95 1.2 .215 .281 .319 62 -0.3
Curt Casali .259 .356 .413 101 0.8 .193 .292 .297 60 -0.1
Wil Myers .276 .338 .479 116 1.2 .218 .283 .368 75 -0.5
Nick Martini .266 .357 .439 110 1.2 .211 .308 .337 73 -0.6
Matt Reynolds .254 .326 .419 96 1.3 .201 .274 .323 60 -0.6
Hernan Perez .271 .321 .435 98 0.9 .216 .269 .332 61 -0.4
Jhonny Pereda .275 .349 .388 96 0.8 .218 .291 .302 62 -0.4
Ivan Johnson .238 .301 .414 89 1.1 .185 .249 .308 48 -0.7
Trey Mancini .271 .341 .462 114 1.3 .219 .290 .359 76 -0.8
Allan Cerda .216 .323 .424 94 1.0 .158 .268 .311 55 -0.9
Levi Jordan .251 .325 .375 85 0.8 .202 .273 .286 50 -0.6
Quincy McAfee .242 .334 .402 93 0.9 .187 .278 .301 55 -0.9
Francisco Urbaez .264 .334 .363 84 0.7 .210 .279 .283 50 -0.7
Joey Votto .236 .352 .458 111 0.9 .186 .293 .337 70 -0.9
Austin Wynns .255 .325 .385 88 0.5 .196 .263 .286 49 -0.7
Michael Trautwein .229 .310 .342 72 0.6 .169 .252 .241 33 -0.7
Daniel Vellojin .234 .322 .370 85 0.7 .174 .262 .264 45 -0.8
Jose Torres .224 .273 .352 65 0.6 .177 .229 .264 34 -0.9
Steven Leyton .252 .283 .416 84 0.5 .198 .231 .310 43 -1.0
Tyler Callihan .248 .303 .377 80 0.7 .198 .255 .296 46 -1.4
Drew Mount .246 .304 .379 81 0.0 .194 .255 .287 45 -0.9
Andy Yerzy .238 .322 .435 100 0.5 .178 .264 .321 58 -1.2
Eric Yang .228 .316 .318 70 0.0 .166 .256 .233 33 -0.9
Erik González .258 .299 .337 70 0.5 .203 .246 .266 37 -1.2
Miguel Hernandez .262 .304 .369 77 0.1 .212 .251 .294 47 -1.0
Ruben Ibarra .243 .319 .408 93 0.5 .188 .260 .308 55 -1.2
Rece Hinds .241 .293 .459 95 0.7 .184 .239 .348 55 -1.5
Alexander Ovalles .252 .331 .383 89 0.1 .200 .280 .294 55 -1.2
Ashton Creal .209 .295 .329 66 -0.2 .153 .240 .244 32 -1.1
Nicholas Northcut .230 .275 .453 89 0.4 .177 .221 .331 45 -1.7
Brian Rey .268 .319 .380 86 -0.1 .213 .267 .296 51 -1.3
James Free .259 .325 .421 96 0.3 .204 .266 .318 56 -1.8
Nick Quintana .213 .300 .346 70 -0.3 .164 .248 .256 36 -1.7
Alex McGarry .250 .297 .431 89 0.0 .198 .243 .330 53 -2.0
Justice Thompson .218 .299 .343 68 -0.4 .172 .249 .260 35 -2.0
Austin Callahan .222 .269 .350 62 -0.5 .178 .217 .271 30 -2.4
Jack Rogers .223 .289 .393 80 -0.7 .172 .236 .289 41 -2.7

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Matt McLain .253 .349 .449 .251 .332 .449
Jeimer Candelario .265 .343 .490 .257 .335 .463
Elly de la Cruz .238 .302 .433 .244 .306 .440
TJ Friedl .263 .342 .416 .259 .339 .419
Spencer Steer .275 .363 .490 .255 .334 .430
Jonathan India .256 .355 .406 .251 .348 .418
Tyler Stephenson .265 .345 .411 .253 .327 .403
Christian Encarnacion-Strand .259 .322 .491 .264 .319 .486
Blake Dunn .247 .343 .420 .238 .328 .379
Will Benson .209 .318 .395 .235 .348 .429
Jason Vosler .227 .291 .406 .232 .304 .429
Noelvi Marte .271 .340 .411 .266 .321 .401
Jake Fraley .238 .337 .388 .254 .342 .438
Jose Barrero .226 .287 .401 .219 .280 .381
Stuart Fairchild .237 .327 .424 .233 .311 .395
Luke Maile .261 .346 .420 .237 .316 .373
Matheu Nelson .204 .285 .359 .200 .275 .350
Mark Mathias .240 .336 .388 .236 .315 .358
Edwin Arroyo .228 .285 .396 .234 .286 .371
Cade Hunter .202 .279 .303 .211 .292 .341
Jacob Hurtubise .235 .350 .296 .255 .363 .335
Conner Capel .221 .292 .331 .242 .317 .379
P.J. Higgins .242 .319 .367 .234 .298 .356
Curt Casali .226 .339 .377 .225 .320 .337
Wil Myers .250 .324 .427 .245 .310 .423
Nick Martini .224 .323 .355 .244 .337 .397
Matt Reynolds .228 .310 .383 .226 .293 .365
Hernan Perez .245 .296 .396 .241 .292 .373
Jhonny Pereda .243 .325 .351 .246 .311 .336
Ivan Johnson .208 .272 .336 .216 .278 .375
Trey Mancini .250 .327 .410 .242 .312 .415
Allan Cerda .191 .302 .369 .190 .290 .379
Levi Jordan .235 .309 .360 .220 .287 .299
Quincy McAfee .219 .316 .358 .213 .295 .350
Francisco Urbaez .237 .312 .338 .238 .299 .315
Joey Votto .200 .313 .368 .217 .324 .410
Austin Wynns .233 .305 .337 .222 .288 .333
Michael Trautwein .192 .272 .260 .202 .279 .295
Daniel Vellojin .191 .276 .287 .206 .294 .328
Jose Torres .208 .261 .313 .195 .248 .300
Steven Leyton .229 .258 .365 .213 .252 .354
Tyler Callihan .219 .272 .315 .227 .277 .346
Drew Mount .218 .283 .291 .222 .276 .350
Andy Yerzy .195 .285 .352 .213 .298 .391
Eric Yang .200 .292 .282 .196 .282 .268
Erik González .230 .272 .289 .228 .267 .303
Miguel Hernandez .242 .283 .342 .232 .272 .310
Ruben Ibarra .212 .295 .364 .210 .284 .349
Rece Hinds .215 .271 .411 .209 .255 .389
Alexander Ovalles .224 .305 .328 .222 .302 .345
Ashton Creal .184 .271 .289 .183 .267 .280
Nicholas Northcut .208 .259 .409 .197 .239 .368
Brian Rey .250 .300 .345 .227 .283 .318
James Free .232 .299 .359 .226 .288 .366
Nick Quintana .194 .290 .303 .185 .259 .295
Alex McGarry .214 .258 .352 .225 .273 .386
Justice Thompson .196 .283 .311 .191 .262 .294
Austin Callahan .193 .236 .296 .204 .248 .318
Jack Rogers .190 .254 .319 .200 .265 .349

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Andrew Abbott L 25 8 9 4.41 29 29 143.0 132 70 22 54 156
Hunter Greene R 24 9 9 4.31 27 27 133.7 108 64 22 48 169
Nick Martinez R 33 5 4 4.04 56 9 100.3 97 45 13 36 105
Frankie Montas R 31 8 8 4.31 24 23 131.7 124 63 20 41 135
Graham Ashcraft R 26 6 9 4.81 24 24 131.0 132 70 16 45 111
Brandon Williamson L 26 5 9 5.05 27 27 128.3 130 72 20 57 116
Alexis Díaz R 27 7 6 3.90 66 0 67.0 47 29 8 32 80
Nick Lodolo L 26 3 4 4.63 18 18 83.7 77 43 13 29 100
Connor Phillips R 23 4 7 5.02 28 27 114.7 106 64 18 61 128
Julian Aguiar R 23 5 8 5.02 24 22 109.3 115 61 18 35 86
Chase Petty R 21 2 3 5.17 27 26 95.7 103 55 15 32 71
Reiver Sanmartin L 28 4 6 5.04 30 11 75.0 78 42 11 27 67
Fernando Cruz R 34 3 2 4.14 55 0 54.3 51 25 9 25 72
Carson Spiers R 26 4 7 5.36 28 14 94.0 98 56 15 40 80
Lyon Richardson R 24 2 4 5.47 26 26 82.3 82 50 14 42 80
Christian Roa R 25 4 7 5.55 23 21 97.3 95 60 17 63 100
Connor Overton R 30 2 3 5.10 18 8 54.7 57 31 9 17 45
Tejay Antone R 30 2 3 5.13 20 7 47.3 47 27 8 20 44
Randy Wynne R 31 4 6 5.51 25 13 85.0 103 52 16 19 46
Kevin Herget R 33 3 5 5.24 32 7 67.0 75 39 12 20 53
Casey Legumina R 27 2 3 5.20 31 7 55.3 58 32 9 23 51
Emilio Pagán R 33 3 4 4.63 56 1 56.3 52 29 10 19 57
Brett Kennedy R 29 3 5 5.63 20 15 76.7 85 48 13 32 55
Ian Gibaut R 30 4 5 4.65 60 0 62.0 60 32 9 26 66
Sam Benschoter R 26 5 10 5.76 22 21 100.0 105 64 18 48 86
Alex Young L 30 3 3 4.92 54 2 56.7 57 31 10 21 59
Connor Curlis L 27 3 6 5.74 22 15 80.0 86 51 15 36 65
Justin Bruihl L 27 3 5 4.96 49 1 52.7 54 29 7 20 40
Levi Stoudt R 26 4 7 5.76 24 19 84.3 95 54 14 41 60
Sam Moll L 32 2 2 4.88 59 1 51.7 47 28 8 24 53
Lucas Sims R 30 4 5 4.91 61 0 55.0 43 30 8 32 66
Derek Law R 33 3 5 5.07 48 3 49.7 52 28 8 23 48
Evan Kravetz L 27 2 3 5.49 29 5 59.0 61 36 10 30 54
Michael Mariot R 35 3 5 5.90 13 11 58.0 68 38 11 24 37
Silvino Bracho R 31 2 4 5.19 44 2 50.3 51 29 9 19 47
Michael Byrne R 27 2 4 5.12 33 1 51.0 53 29 8 20 44
Thomas Farr R 25 4 7 6.00 22 22 93.0 106 62 16 37 56
Chasen Shreve L 33 1 2 5.05 44 0 41.0 40 23 7 15 40
Buck Farmer R 33 3 4 4.92 59 0 60.3 55 33 10 29 67
Tony Santillan R 27 2 3 5.47 34 5 51.0 50 31 8 31 50
Tommy Eveld R 30 2 3 5.09 25 0 35.3 37 20 6 11 32
Spencer Stockton R 28 2 4 5.63 26 3 48.0 51 30 8 21 39
Alec Mills R 32 2 5 6.05 17 11 58.0 70 39 11 20 36
Brooks Kriske R 30 1 3 5.35 29 0 33.7 30 20 6 18 42
Jake Wong R 27 3 5 5.94 28 6 66.7 76 44 12 32 47
Tyler Jay L 30 1 1 5.97 21 1 34.7 39 23 7 15 32
T.J. Sikkema L 25 2 5 5.89 28 4 62.7 64 41 10 30 49
Myles Gayman R 26 3 4 5.46 31 0 61.0 69 37 10 13 39
Donovan Benoit R 25 2 3 5.74 24 0 31.3 30 20 5 19 32
Eddy Demurias R 26 2 3 5.74 36 0 42.3 45 27 7 23 35
Zack Brown R 29 1 3 6.39 24 6 43.7 51 31 8 24 28
Hunter Strickland R 35 1 3 5.90 41 0 39.7 41 26 8 21 34
Brooks Crawford R 27 3 5 5.54 36 0 63.3 69 39 11 25 48
Alan Busenitz R 33 2 4 5.66 46 0 49.3 55 31 9 21 38
Ryan Meisinger R 30 2 4 5.97 29 0 34.7 36 23 7 21 35
Shea Spitzbarth R 29 2 3 6.11 33 1 35.3 38 24 6 23 28
Daniel Duarte R 27 2 4 5.80 54 0 54.3 55 35 10 29 51
Andy Fisher L 28 1 3 6.10 38 0 41.3 43 28 7 24 34
Stevie Branche R 27 2 3 6.08 30 0 40.0 37 27 7 29 43
Jared Solomon R 27 1 4 6.57 31 5 49.3 55 36 9 33 38
Ryan Nutof R 28 2 4 5.89 50 0 55.0 59 36 9 32 45
Tayron Guerrero R 33 1 2 7.36 21 0 22.0 26 18 5 16 17
Vin Timpanelli R 25 2 4 6.32 38 0 47.0 45 33 8 33 45
Jake Gozzo R 27 2 4 7.04 35 0 46.0 50 36 8 33 32

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Andrew Abbott 143.0 9.8 3.4 1.4 8.8% 25.5% .294 101 4.29 99 2.1
Hunter Greene 133.7 11.4 3.2 1.5 8.6% 30.5% .277 103 4.19 97 2.1
Nick Martinez 100.3 9.4 3.2 1.2 8.4% 24.4% .308 110 4.01 91 1.6
Frankie Montas 131.7 9.2 2.8 1.4 7.3% 24.2% .293 98 4.23 102 1.5
Graham Ashcraft 131.0 7.6 3.1 1.1 7.9% 19.5% .299 93 4.38 108 1.5
Brandon Williamson 128.3 8.1 4.0 1.4 10.0% 20.4% .297 88 4.97 113 1.2
Alexis Díaz 67.0 10.7 4.3 1.1 11.3% 28.4% .250 114 4.17 87 1.1
Nick Lodolo 83.7 10.8 3.1 1.4 8.1% 28.0% .305 96 4.39 104 1.0
Connor Phillips 114.7 10.0 4.8 1.4 11.9% 25.0% .296 89 4.87 113 1.0
Julian Aguiar 109.3 7.1 2.9 1.5 7.3% 18.0% .293 89 5.00 113 1.0
Chase Petty 95.7 6.7 3.0 1.4 7.6% 16.9% .296 86 5.03 116 0.7
Reiver Sanmartin 75.0 8.0 3.2 1.3 8.2% 20.4% .305 88 4.54 113 0.5
Fernando Cruz 54.3 11.9 4.1 1.5 10.5% 30.1% .323 108 4.41 93 0.5
Carson Spiers 94.0 7.7 3.8 1.4 9.6% 19.2% .299 83 5.16 120 0.5
Lyon Richardson 82.3 8.7 4.6 1.5 11.3% 21.4% .297 82 5.23 123 0.4
Christian Roa 97.3 9.2 5.8 1.6 14.0% 22.3% .297 80 5.60 125 0.4
Connor Overton 54.7 7.4 2.8 1.5 7.2% 19.0% .294 87 4.85 115 0.4
Tejay Antone 47.3 8.4 3.8 1.5 9.6% 21.2% .291 87 5.05 115 0.3
Randy Wynne 85.0 4.9 2.0 1.7 5.1% 12.4% .301 81 5.43 124 0.3
Kevin Herget 67.0 7.1 2.7 1.6 6.8% 18.2% .306 85 5.03 118 0.3
Casey Legumina 55.3 8.3 3.7 1.5 9.4% 20.8% .306 86 4.88 117 0.2
Emilio Pagán 56.3 9.1 3.0 1.6 8.0% 24.1% .280 96 4.60 104 0.2
Brett Kennedy 76.7 6.5 3.8 1.5 9.3% 15.9% .299 79 5.51 126 0.2
Ian Gibaut 62.0 9.6 3.8 1.3 9.6% 24.4% .305 96 4.42 104 0.2
Sam Benschoter 100.0 7.7 4.3 1.6 10.5% 18.9% .296 77 5.62 129 0.2
Alex Young 56.7 9.4 3.3 1.6 8.5% 24.0% .305 90 4.68 111 0.2
Connor Curlis 80.0 7.3 4.1 1.7 10.0% 18.1% .296 78 5.64 129 0.2
Justin Bruihl 52.7 6.8 3.4 1.2 8.7% 17.3% .292 96 4.83 104 0.2
Levi Stoudt 84.3 6.4 4.4 1.5 10.5% 15.4% .303 77 5.63 129 0.1
Sam Moll 51.7 9.2 4.2 1.4 10.7% 23.6% .283 91 4.90 109 0.1
Lucas Sims 55.0 10.8 5.2 1.3 13.3% 27.5% .267 91 4.87 110 0.1
Derek Law 49.7 8.7 4.2 1.4 10.2% 21.3% .310 88 4.93 114 0.1
Evan Kravetz 59.0 8.2 4.6 1.5 11.2% 20.2% .300 81 5.31 123 0.1
Michael Mariot 58.0 5.7 3.7 1.7 9.1% 14.1% .302 76 5.84 132 0.0
Silvino Bracho 50.3 8.4 3.4 1.6 8.7% 21.6% .296 86 4.96 116 0.0
Michael Byrne 51.0 7.8 3.5 1.4 8.8% 19.4% .300 87 4.86 115 0.0
Thomas Farr 93.0 5.4 3.6 1.5 8.8% 13.4% .295 74 5.87 135 0.0
Chasen Shreve 41.0 8.8 3.3 1.5 8.5% 22.6% .292 88 4.69 113 0.0
Buck Farmer 60.3 10.0 4.3 1.5 11.0% 25.4% .290 91 4.78 110 0.0
Tony Santillan 51.0 8.8 5.5 1.4 13.2% 21.4% .298 81 5.45 123 0.0
Tommy Eveld 35.3 8.2 2.8 1.5 7.2% 21.1% .304 87 4.76 114 0.0
Spencer Stockton 48.0 7.3 3.9 1.5 9.9% 18.3% .299 79 5.30 126 -0.1
Alec Mills 58.0 5.6 3.1 1.7 7.7% 13.8% .307 74 5.72 136 -0.1
Brooks Kriske 33.7 11.2 4.8 1.6 11.8% 27.5% .296 83 4.86 120 -0.1
Jake Wong 66.7 6.3 4.3 1.6 10.4% 15.3% .302 75 5.76 133 -0.2
Tyler Jay 34.7 8.3 3.9 1.8 9.6% 20.4% .314 75 5.59 134 -0.2
T.J. Sikkema 62.7 7.0 4.3 1.4 10.8% 17.6% .287 76 5.63 132 -0.2
Myles Gayman 61.0 5.8 1.9 1.5 5.0% 15.0% .298 82 5.14 123 -0.3
Donovan Benoit 31.3 9.2 5.5 1.4 13.3% 22.4% .294 78 5.58 129 -0.3
Eddy Demurias 42.3 7.4 4.9 1.5 11.9% 18.0% .299 78 5.59 129 -0.3
Zack Brown 43.7 5.8 4.9 1.6 11.6% 13.5% .303 70 6.28 143 -0.3
Hunter Strickland 39.7 7.7 4.8 1.8 11.7% 18.9% .287 76 5.98 132 -0.3
Brooks Crawford 63.3 6.8 3.6 1.6 8.8% 17.0% .297 80 5.37 124 -0.3
Alan Busenitz 49.3 6.9 3.8 1.6 9.5% 17.1% .303 79 5.48 127 -0.3
Ryan Meisinger 34.7 9.1 5.5 1.8 13.0% 21.6% .302 75 5.85 134 -0.4
Shea Spitzbarth 35.3 7.1 5.9 1.5 13.9% 17.0% .299 73 6.00 137 -0.4
Daniel Duarte 54.3 8.4 4.8 1.7 11.7% 20.6% .294 77 5.65 130 -0.4
Andy Fisher 41.3 7.4 5.2 1.5 12.6% 17.9% .293 73 5.99 137 -0.5
Stevie Branche 40.0 9.7 6.5 1.6 15.2% 22.5% .288 73 6.01 136 -0.5
Jared Solomon 49.3 6.9 6.0 1.6 14.0% 16.1% .303 68 6.40 147 -0.5
Ryan Nutof 55.0 7.4 5.2 1.5 12.3% 17.3% .301 76 5.60 132 -0.5
Tayron Guerrero 22.0 7.0 6.5 2.0 14.7% 15.6% .309 61 7.26 165 -0.6
Vin Timpanelli 47.0 8.6 6.3 1.5 14.9% 20.4% .285 71 6.17 142 -0.6
Jake Gozzo 46.0 6.3 6.5 1.6 14.7% 14.3% .292 63 6.67 158 -1.0

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Andrew Abbott Tom Browning CC Sabathia Ken Holtzman
Hunter Greene Jack Flaherty Johnny Rigney Dennis Eckersley
Nick Martinez Don Robinson Sal Maglie Mike Marshall
Frankie Montas Jeff Samardzija Burleigh Grimes Jim Bunning
Graham Ashcraft Nathan Eovaldi Antonio Senzatela Mike Pelfrey
Brandon Williamson Jerry Reuss Shawn Morimando Fred Kipp
Alexis Díaz Carlos Marmol Scott Williamson Jose Leclerc
Nick Lodolo Craig Skok Dave Hamilton Britt Burns
Connor Phillips Tyler Clippard Randall Delgado Kyle Davies
Julian Aguiar Henderson Alvarez Matt Wisler Pablo Lopez
Chase Petty Dave Katusin Bill Dillman Troy Chestnut
Reiver Sanmartin Richard Salazar Matt Ruebel Scott Simmons
Fernando Cruz Todd Jones Larry Andersen Steve Farr
Carson Spiers Philip Humber 험버 Allen Levrault Adam Peterson
Lyon Richardson Larry McDowell Mark Ambrose Chuck Murray
Christian Roa Chance Adams Steven White Dave Swartzbaugh
Connor Overton Scott Roberts Huck Betts John Briggs
Tejay Antone Randall Delgado Darryl Scott Don Cooper
Randy Wynne Josh Miller Zach Neal Mark Knudson
Kevin Herget Brady Raggio Steve Hargan Bob Klinger
Casey Legumina Brandon Reed Mike Flannery Gary Haught
Emilio Pagán Mike Trombley Ryan Brasier Enrique Romo
Brett Kennedy Ryan Glynn 라이언 Allen Webster 웹스터 Luis Munoz
Ian Gibaut Zach McAllister Jonathan Albaladejo Hector Neris
Sam Benschoter Dylan Covey Jefry Rodriguez Chris Ellis
Alex Young Tim Hill Mike Gosling Rudy Arias
Connor Curlis Bryan Oelkers Shawn Morimando Tom Drees
Justin Bruihl Brad Wheeler Clyde Shoun Dick Lines
Levi Stoudt Steven Wright Kevin Beirne Justin Fitzgerald
Sam Moll Rich Rodriguez Tug McGraw Jeremy Affeldt
Lucas Sims Jose Veras Freddy Schmidt Mike Hartley
Derek Law Willard Schmidt Hansel Izquierdo Jim Bruske
Evan Kravetz Eric Stout Terry Burrows Mark Miggins
Michael Mariot Carl Willey Guillermo Moscoso Doyle Lade
Silvino Bracho Willie Fraser Jim Mann Dick Drago
Michael Byrne Jose Capellan카페얀 Geoff Broussard Alan Busenitz
Thomas Farr Sean O’Sullivan 오설리반 Taylor Guerrieri Troy Evers
Chasen Shreve Morrie Martin Tony Sipp Brian Duensing
Buck Farmer Johnny Morrison Odell Jones Diego Segui
Tony Santillan Dayan Diaz Scott Oberg J.P. Feyereisen
Tommy Eveld Mike Browning Carlos Almanzar Chris Smith
Spencer Stockton Jim Gerlach Elvys Quezada Rod Stevenson
Alec Mills George Gill Bob Saban Randy Boone
Brooks Kriske Brad Boxberger Bryan Stephens Craig Dingman
Jake Wong Mark Heuer Steve Long James Sprankle
Tyler Jay Zach Baldwin Rommie Lewis Brian Henderson
T.J. Sikkema Rob Kaminsky Lefty Hoerst Mark Miggins
Myles Gayman Nick Baker Kyle Kraus Mike Welch
Donovan Benoit David Wong Rick Raether Jarrod Kingrey
Eddy Demurias Marcus Hostetler Tony Dougherty Rich Scalamandre
Zack Brown Brock Till Robert Paulk Fidel Compres
Hunter Strickland Tom Wilhelmsen Alan Mills Don Aase
Brooks Crawford Ryan Basner J.R. Graham Anthony Bass
Alan Busenitz J.C. Gutierrez Javy Guerra Roman Colon 콜론
Ryan Meisinger Jerry Casale Daryl Patterson Frank Mata
Shea Spitzbarth Jamie Emiliano Bobby Reis Mike Crudale
Daniel Duarte Roman Mendez Scott Oberg Dayan Diaz
Andy Fisher Len Whitehouse Colin Young Chris Petrini
Stevie Branche Joel Johnston Jeff Jones Terry Bross
Jared Solomon Gene Escat Vince Bongiovanni Marco Albano
Ryan Nutof Joey Donofrio Julio DePaula 데폴라 Ryan Perry
Tayron Guerrero Hal Elliott Robert Booth Kaohi Downing
Vin Timpanelli Adam Lau Byron Wilkerson Jhondaniel Medina
Jake Gozzo Frank Kamfonik Jon Ellis Barry Manuel

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Andrew Abbott .229 .288 .360 .244 .319 .446 3.0 1.0 3.86 5.16
Hunter Greene .213 .301 .404 .218 .293 .391 3.1 1.0 3.67 5.02
Nick Martinez .243 .324 .402 .252 .305 .411 2.7 0.4 3.21 5.17
Frankie Montas .254 .322 .452 .233 .285 .385 2.4 0.5 3.76 5.01
Graham Ashcraft .234 .310 .326 .275 .338 .489 2.3 0.6 4.22 5.49
Brandon Williamson .252 .324 .374 .259 .344 .470 2.1 0.2 4.39 5.86
Alexis Díaz .196 .321 .357 .189 .285 .318 1.9 0.0 3.17 5.13
Nick Lodolo .222 .300 .321 .244 .332 .455 1.6 0.3 4.03 5.50
Connor Phillips .236 .355 .419 .242 .326 .421 1.8 -0.1 4.47 6.00
Julian Aguiar .250 .333 .452 .275 .325 .453 1.6 0.3 4.52 5.65
Chase Petty .266 .337 .434 .271 .332 .467 1.3 0.1 4.58 5.91
Reiver Sanmartin .240 .308 .385 .272 .333 .465 1.0 -0.1 4.50 5.99
Fernando Cruz .240 .333 .410 .243 .336 .441 1.1 -0.2 3.17 5.65
Carson Spiers .279 .367 .474 .246 .320 .421 1.1 -0.1 4.77 5.99
Lyon Richardson .247 .349 .432 .261 .344 .466 1.0 -0.2 4.84 6.21
Christian Roa .250 .372 .453 .250 .355 .442 1.0 -0.5 5.00 6.46
Connor Overton .275 .342 .480 .252 .304 .426 0.8 0.0 4.39 5.88
Tejay Antone .256 .343 .467 .250 .324 .427 0.7 -0.1 4.39 6.04
Randy Wynne .295 .351 .545 .292 .320 .467 0.7 -0.2 5.04 6.13
Kevin Herget .265 .320 .470 .286 .339 .494 0.8 -0.2 4.43 6.14
Casey Legumina .269 .342 .510 .259 .331 .397 0.6 -0.2 4.54 5.95
Emilio Pagán .242 .314 .473 .238 .292 .405 0.8 -0.4 3.78 5.76
Brett Kennedy .273 .350 .475 .276 .352 .471 0.7 -0.3 5.06 6.26
Ian Gibaut .243 .328 .391 .252 .324 .441 0.8 -0.5 3.84 5.80
Sam Benschoter .273 .374 .477 .257 .340 .455 0.8 -0.5 5.22 6.47
Alex Young .243 .313 .405 .262 .327 .477 0.8 -0.4 3.93 6.00
Connor Curlis .275 .364 .461 .266 .344 .486 0.7 -0.4 5.17 6.46
Justin Bruihl .231 .299 .333 .277 .354 .477 0.5 -0.2 4.24 5.73
Levi Stoudt .265 .366 .456 .289 .358 .485 0.5 -0.4 5.31 6.44
Sam Moll .211 .294 .355 .252 .354 .455 0.6 -0.5 4.05 6.01
Lucas Sims .204 .362 .376 .214 .310 .384 0.9 -0.7 3.94 6.16
Derek Law .256 .350 .467 .269 .339 .435 0.4 -0.4 4.29 6.07
Evan Kravetz .239 .337 .408 .270 .355 .472 0.6 -0.5 4.68 6.41
Michael Mariot .304 .383 .545 .272 .333 .448 0.4 -0.4 5.27 6.77
Silvino Bracho .261 .340 .443 .255 .314 .464 0.4 -0.4 4.34 6.13
Michael Byrne .267 .343 .511 .259 .323 .393 0.4 -0.4 4.47 5.82
Thomas Farr .294 .376 .503 .270 .348 .455 0.5 -0.5 5.45 6.54
Chasen Shreve .254 .323 .441 .248 .313 .446 0.4 -0.4 4.12 6.38
Buck Farmer .248 .355 .429 .228 .303 .417 0.6 -0.7 3.98 6.32
Tony Santillan .272 .402 .446 .234 .331 .421 0.4 -0.6 4.74 6.45
Tommy Eveld .279 .347 .500 .250 .304 .431 0.3 -0.3 4.20 6.10
Spencer Stockton .261 .355 .467 .273 .336 .455 0.3 -0.5 4.88 6.55
Alec Mills .322 .392 .591 .266 .319 .435 0.3 -0.4 5.43 6.73
Brooks Kriske .246 .352 .475 .221 .316 .397 0.2 -0.5 4.45 6.58
Jake Wong .275 .356 .435 .286 .365 .536 0.2 -0.7 5.37 6.82
Tyler Jay .286 .375 .476 .273 .348 .505 0.1 -0.6 5.17 7.18
T.J. Sikkema .227 .344 .373 .273 .364 .471 0.1 -0.7 5.29 6.71
Myles Gayman .288 .341 .492 .271 .326 .442 0.1 -0.7 4.82 6.17
Donovan Benoit .250 .391 .446 .242 .346 .424 0.0 -0.6 5.07 6.68
Eddy Demurias .260 .367 .455 .272 .358 .457 0.0 -0.7 5.14 6.60
Zack Brown .291 .396 .512 .283 .368 .478 0.0 -0.8 5.77 7.44
Hunter Strickland .288 .390 .530 .242 .333 .440 0.0 -0.7 4.94 7.06
Brooks Crawford .271 .351 .449 .272 .338 .478 0.0 -0.8 4.95 6.33
Alan Busenitz .268 .345 .464 .284 .351 .490 0.0 -0.8 4.98 6.58
Ryan Meisinger .262 .384 .508 .260 .348 .455 -0.1 -0.8 5.18 7.27
Shea Spitzbarth .261 .370 .478 .278 .384 .458 -0.1 -0.7 5.24 7.08
Daniel Duarte .255 .360 .462 .259 .352 .454 0.0 -0.9 5.07 6.93
Andy Fisher .233 .352 .433 .279 .387 .471 -0.2 -0.9 5.42 7.00
Stevie Branche .211 .356 .408 .265 .398 .470 -0.1 -0.9 5.25 7.15
Jared Solomon .278 .393 .495 .275 .385 .471 -0.1 -0.8 5.81 7.42
Ryan Nutof .271 .378 .495 .265 .349 .416 -0.1 -1.0 5.17 6.84
Tayron Guerrero .317 .451 .634 .265 .373 .449 -0.3 -0.8 6.39 8.82
Vin Timpanelli .262 .410 .488 .232 .358 .394 -0.3 -1.1 5.62 7.42
Jake Gozzo .294 .425 .529 .253 .370 .424 -0.6 -1.4 6.29 8.05

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/11/24

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And we are here!

12:02
James: You never win trading away Juan Soto. That said, Preller must be thrilled with his haul right now given how the SP FA market has been shaking out, no?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though I’m  not thinking much of Padres in 2024; that’s still a lot of performance to replace and they kinda needed pitching *now*

12:03
Laxtonto: Does it seem like this offseason is moving slow on the FA front? Or is it just perception of the long offseason?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think slower than usual. One thing is that there just aren’t many very good position players ou thtere

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Been really lite on stars

Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The Brewers won 92 games in 2023, enough to coast to a division title with nine games to spare, though it didn’t really have much to do with their offense. After a respectable 2022 season, the team’s wRC+ dropped to 92, ahead of just six teams (four of which won fewer than 62 games). In a season that saw an upswing in baseball’s offensive environment, the Brewers only slugged .385, their worst showing in 30 years.

That’s not to say there weren’t bright spots, but of the four players who put up a wRC+ of at least 100 in a minimum of 100 plate appearances, two (Carlos Santana and Mark Canha) are no longer on the team. Of the two who still call Milwaukee home, William Contreras is the best bet to maintain his 2023 production, though one-year framing numbers did a lot of heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich had a nice little bounce back, but he’s still a 32-year-old coming off two-and-a-half far less impressive seasons. ZiPS is grumpier than Steamer with respect to Yelich, but even Steamer has him falling short of 3 WAR, and that’s in a scenario where he has nearly perfect health. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

This set of batters probably looks familiar because, well, apart from the Luis Arraez trade to the Marlins, this is pretty much the same collection of hitters the Twins have had available the last several years. Edouard Julien isn’t the exact same type of player as Arraez, but he more or less fulfills Arraez’s role of “interesting offensive talent who the Twins can play at second base, but would prefer not to.”

Can Byron Buxton stay healthy? Just sticking him at DH isn’t a satisfactory answer — one of the reasons a healthy Buxton is so valuable is because he has played a transcendent center field when he’s been able to. Playing DH, he’s basically just Jorge Soler, which has value, but not that star-level sizzle. Read the rest of this entry »