The 2024 Replacement-Level Killers: Left Field & Right Field

Today the Killers list turns the corner — or rather turns to the teams receiving less-than-acceptable production in the outfield corners. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. I’ve batched the two corners together into one supersized roundup because three of the seven teams below the WAR cutoff for left field also make the list for right field, and because there’s plenty of crossover in play with regards to personnel. The capsules are listed in order of their left field rankings first, while noting those three crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the July 30 deadline, but these are teams to keep an eye on. All statistics are through July 14.

Braves

The planned platoon of lefty Jarred Kelenic and righty Adam Duvall has yielded less-than-compelling returns. The former top prospect Kelenic has hit .255/.303/.418 (100 wRC+) with 1.0 WAR. His swing, chase, and swinging strike rates are all at career highs, and while he’s nonetheless shaved his strikeout rate to a career-best 29%, his 6.4% walk rate is a career low. Meanwhile Duvall’s performance has crashed through the floor, as he’s hit just .192/.256/.329 (64 wRC+) en route to -0.3 WAR. Some of that might be bad luck; his .217 xBA and .424 xSLG are so similar to his marks from last year — when he produced a 116 wRC+ — that his xwOBA this season is actually one point higher (.305 vs. .304). Where he slugged an ungodly .701 versus four-seamers in 2023, he’s down to .414 this year, though in terms of xSLG, the drop is only from .579 to .524.

With Michael Harris II sidelined by a hamstring injury, Kelenic lately has been manning center, so not all of his 1.0 WAR is from his time in left. Duvall has been covering right with Ronald Acuña Jr. out for the year, and Eddie Rosario is back in the fold after being released by the Nationals; overall, the latter looks absolutely cooked given his .180/.220/.316 (47 wRC+) line and -1.5 WAR, the second-lowest total of any position player. While the Braves can hope that Rosario and Duvall can again summon the mojo that helped them overcome Acuña’s 2021 absence well enough to win the World Series, it’s really president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos who’s got to pull the rabbit out of the hat with a helpful move or two. The Rays’ Randy Arozarena, the Angels’ Taylor Ward, and the White Sox’s Tommy Pham are just a few of his potential targets.

Dodgers

The Teoscar Hernández signing has been a smash, as the 31-year-old slugger has hit .261/.327/.475 (126 wRC+) with 19 homers while earning All-Star honors and becoming the first Dodger ever to win the Home Run Derby. Jason Heyward’s injuries have led to his splitting time between the two outfield corners, making 50 starts in left and 45 in right; though he’s been better in right, he’s managed just a 96 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR in left. Chris Taylor has been terrible overall (.156/.273/.252, 58 wRC+, -0.5 WAR) and somehow even worse (41 wRC+) in 30 games here. Enrique Hernández has produced a 101 wRC+ in 12 games in left, but he’s hitting just .191/.258/.299 (61 wRC+) overall. The pair played a significant part in the Dodgers’ three pennants and championship from 2017–20, but their recent returns don’t justify their continued presence on the roster, let alone in the lineup.

Miguel Vargas has provided a spot of optimism with his return from an exile to Triple-A Oklahoma City that spanned from last year’s All-Star break until mid-May and included a move from second base to left field. Despite an ongoing 0-for-18 slump, he’s hit .246/.299/.459 (112 wRC+), albeit in just 67 plate appearances. The Dodgers will almost certainly add an option from outside the organization, and have reportedly expressed interest in Pham, Arozarena, and Luis Robert Jr., whose acquisition — which may be a longshot — could reshuffle the whole outfield configuration, and perhaps its cast given the possibility of pre-arb players such as Vargas and/or Andy Pages being pieces in such a deal.

Royals*

The Royals are surprising contenders despite getting less than nothing at both outfield corners, and unlike the Braves and Dodgers, they’re hardly locks to reach the postseason, with Playoff Odds of just 32.5%. This is the kind of make-or-break situation that the Killers series was designed to highlight.

To date, manager Matt Quatraro’s plan at both corners has been static despite such poor production. Coincidentally, both regulars have been right at zero WAR, with the reserves sinking the totals even further. MJ Melendez has hit just .192/.257/.385 (75 wRC+) while starting 74 games in left and another three in right. He’s shed about two mph in exit velocity (from 93.2 to 91.1) and about two points in barrel rate (from 11.4% to 9.5%), but his .245 xBA and .438 xSLG are on par with last year’s numbers, when he posted a 92 wRC+, better but still below average. Hunter Renfroe has hit .226/.297/.387 (90 wRC+) and is in a very similar boat as last year with his quality of contact; his .287 xwOBA is a two-point dropoff.

In other words, neither of these players is doing something far outside of what could have been expected. A weakened farm system could make a big acquisition difficult, so don’t expect Robert here; beyond the prospect capital it would cost get to get him, the White Sox probably wouldn’t trade him to an intradivision rival. Instead, names like Ward and Brent Rooker may be more realistic, and Gavin Sheets seems like a more reasonable target if Kansas City wants to trade with the Sox.

Pirates*

Yaaaargh. Even with Bryan Reynolds hitting .284/.347/.487 (132 wRC+) with 2.0 WAR, the Pirates outfield is such a mess that all three positions made the Killers lists; the team’s combined outfield production of -0.7 WAR is ahead of only the White Sox, and a full win worse than the 28th-ranked Royals. At the plate the Bucs outfielders have combined for a 87 wRC+ (fourth worst), while in the field they’re dead last with -24 DRS and second to last with -19 FRV. Reynolds, Edward Olivares, and Jack Suwinski are all tied for last with -8 FRV. Reynolds has 68 starts in left and 16 in right; Suwinski has 22 starts in left, 38 in center, and two in right; and Oliveras has 41 starts in right. Positioning is probably a factor; via Statcast, the team shades its outfielders to account for batter handedness less than any team besides the Phillies. Suwinski and Reynolds both rank among the 25 lowest when it comes to outfield jumps as well.

Suwinski, who totaled 2.7 WAR with a 112 wRC+ as a 24-year-old last year, has been one of the majors’ most unproductive players, slashing .174/.259/.319 (61 wRC+) overall with a major league worst -19 DRS across the three outfield spots. His groundball rate has shot up from 27.9% to 46.3%, and his xSLG has dropped from .461 to .358; it’s fallen even further against all variants of fastballs (from .526 to .380). Oliveras hit just .224/.291/.333 (76 wRC+) in 196 plate appearances before he was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis earlier this month, effectively swapping places with Joshua Palacios, who hit a measly .239/.279/.413 (83 wRC+) in 264 PA for the Bucs last year and who this season has been limited to 30 minor league games due to injuries. He’s hit .286/.429/.536 in 35 PA since returning to the big leagues — and hit the ball very hard while doing so (92.9 mph EV, .545 xSLG) — but this is a wee sample. Still, the team will need outside help; the Pirates have pursued Ward, but he’s said to be just one of many potential targets.

Rays

After making his first All-Star team last year while hitting for a 122 wRC+, Arozarena was absolutely dreadful in March and April (.143/.220/.241, 37 wRC+) while striking out an uncharacteristically high 29.3% of the time and producing poor quality of contact when he put the ball in play. When I checked in on Arozarena in late April, I noted that Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola had expressed the belief that Arozarena’s desire to use the whole field more often, in an effort to make himself an even better hitter, may have backfired.

Since then, he’s more or less righted the ship, hitting .234/.352/.425 (128 wRC+) to lift his overall wRC+ to 98 and striking out just 22.3% of the time (three points lower than his career mark); where he was pulling the ball 34.2% of the time in April, he’s up to 49.3% since, about eight points ahead of his career mark. The question is no longer what’s wrong with him, it’s will the Rays (48-48, with 16.5% Playoff Odds) trade him? His $8.1 million salary makes him their third highest-paid player, and he still has two more years of control. Judging by the length of this list, he’s a plausible fit for a ton of contenders.

Mariners*

Luke Raley has hit a modest .238/.295/.415 (105 wRC+) while playing 53 games in left field, 23 in right, 12 at first base, four in center, and two at DH. He’s the only Mariners outfielder besides Julio Rodríguez who’s taken at least 40 plate appearances for the team and accumulated at least 0.5 WAR. Unfortunately for Seattle, there’s only one of Raley, and he doesn’t hit lefties. The main culprits for the team’s double-barreled appearance here are Mitch Haniger and Dominic Canzone. Back in the fold after a miserable year with the Giants, the righty-swinging Haniger has played 61 games in right but has hit just .208/.282/.336 (81 wRC+) with -0.7 WAR. Though he’s hit the ball reasonably hard, his 42.9% groundball rate is his highest since 2017, and he’s struck out 27.9% of the time, so his .392 xSLG is nothing to write home about. His once-robust production against lefties has shriveled (15 wRC+ in 92 PA), costing him enough playing time to suggest his roster spot is in jeopardy. The lefty-swinging Canzone, who’s played 30 games in right field and 22 in left, has hit .211/.289/.394 (94 wRC+) with a 27.7% strikeout rate while alternating good months and bad.

Of the half-dozen other players the team has used in the corners, including superutilitymen Dylan Moore and Josh Rojas, the interesting one is Victor Robles. The former top-five prospect has hit .355/.444/.581 in 38 PA since being picked up in early June after his release from the Nationals, barreling seven of his 27 batted balls — one more than he had in 369 PA in 2021 and two fewer than in 407 PA in ’22. It’s unclear what’s changed besides the scenery, but he’s worth a longer look. The bottom line, though, is that the Mariners are desperate for help.

Twins

The Twins haven’t stayed in one place for very long when it comes to their left fielders. Four different players — lefties Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff, righty Austin Martin, and switch-hitter Willi Castro — have made between 17 and 22 starts there, with righty Manuel Margot adding 10 (plus entering in mid-game, often from another outfield spot, 37 times!) and lefty Matt Wallner seven. The oft-injured Kirilloff produced just a 64 wRC+ as a left fielder and hit .201/.270/.384 (83 wRC+) with -0.3 WAR in 178 plate appearances overall before being sidelined by a back strain in mid-June. Larnach has hit .249/.312/.426 (109 wRC+) with 0.5 WAR in 218 PA overall while splitting time between DH and the outfield corners; all but eight of his PA have come against righties. Martin, the fifth pick of the 2020 draft by the Blue Jays, has hit .265/.331/.372 (103 wRC+) in 124 PA, but his defense in left and center has been so bad that he’s netted -0.2 WAR, and he’s now out with an oblique strain. Margot has hit just .233/.296/.332 (81 wRC+) with -0.2 WAR in 213 PA, and he’s been ridiculously bad (25 wRC+) in his 63 PA as a left fielder. Wallner went just 2-for-25 before being sent to Triple-A; in seven games since returning, he’s been red hot. Castro, who’s hit for a 123 wRC+ overall, has been playing second regularly since Edouard Julien’s demotion.

It’s one big mess, and unless they land a stud like Arozarena, the way forward probably has Larnach or Wallner taking the long half of a platoon while the front office tries to land a righty such as the Nationals’ Lane Thomas, a particularly adept lefty masher.

Phillies

Are we really doing this again? Nick Castellanos may have impeccable timing for his home runs, but he’s landed on this list in all three seasons with the Phillies, netting 0.3 WAR with a 99 wRC+ across 389 games through the first half (and change) of his five-year, $100 million deal.

This year, the 32-year-old Castellanos has hit .233/.289/.390 (89 wRC+); all of those numbers are career lows except for his batting average. He’s chasing a lot, and hitting the ball less hard than ever in terms of average exit velo (87.7 mph), though he’s had worse seasons in terms of barrel and hard-hit rates (8.6% and 39.3%). His defense (-8 FRV, -7 DRS, -6.0 UZR) remains nightmarish, and his -0.6 WAR is a career worst. Yet he’s started 92 of the team’s 96 games in right field and DHed in the other four. Given his contract and the fact that the Phillies nonetheless own the majors’ best record at 62-34, the inescapable conclusion is that he’s not going anywhere. See you here next year, pal.

Guardians

Cleveland opened with a right field platoon of lefty Will Brennan and righty Ramón Laureano, but the latter didn’t hit a lick and was released (he’s now a Brave, and an injured one at that). Brennan has mustered just a .248/.302/.402 (101 wRC+) line in 57 games in right field, nine in left (during Steven Kwan’s injury absence), and four in center. Seven other players have received between three and 35 plate appearances as right fielders, and the most interesting of them are rookies. I covered Daniel Schneemann and Angel Martínez in the shortstop/center field installment, so I’d encourage you to catch up there.

During Brennan’s absence for a rib cage injury, 23-year-old prospect Jhonkensy Noel arrived and made his presence felt, hitting .257/.308/.629 with four home runs (and 15 strikeouts) in just 39 PA. Noel placed 35th on the Guardians’ prospect list as a 35+ FV first baseman. He’s got 70/80 raw power but his hit, run, and fielding tools are all currently 30-grade, and Eric Longenhagen characterized his plate discipline as poor; at Triple-A Columbus, Noel hit .295/.359/.578 (136 wRC+) with 18 homers but a 40.3% chase rate in 65 games. At the very least, pairing him with the punchless Brennan could be worth a try. All-Star super-duper utilityman David Fry, who’s played 22 games apiece at catcher and DH, 16 in left, 12 at first, [pauses for breath] and three at third, has played only four games in right. He’s worth a longer look here if the Guardians don’t add another bat from outside. In addition to the usual suspects (Arozarena, Rooker, Thomas, Ward), The Athletic’s Jim Bowden mentioned the Marlins’ Jazz Chisholm Jr. and the Giants’ Michael Conforto as potential fits.

Rangers

Adolis García had a monster 2023 season, setting career highs in home runs (39), wRC+ (126), and WAR (4.4), making his second All-Star team, and taking home his first Gold Glove, the ALCS MVP award, and a World Series ring. His encore hasn’t gone well, as he’s hit just .211/.277/.405 (88 wRC+), albeit with 17 homers, and if that looks bad, know that he’s been even worse since the start of May (.174/.245/.323, 57 wRC+). He’s regressed when it comes to the selectivity that served him so well last year; where he trimmed his chase rate from 36.9% to 29.5% from 2022–23, he’s back up to 33.7%. He’s once again particularly vulnerable to chasing breaking pitches low and away; where he produced a .240 wOBA and whiffed on 62.1% of his swings on breaking pitches in Gameday Zone 14 last year, he’s down to a .133 wOBA with a 66.7% whiff rate there in 2024. Meanwhile, his slugging percentage against four-seamers has dropped from .490 to .333, and he’s whiffing on one-third of his swings against those heaters. His defense hasn’t been up to his standards, though besides his FRV dropping from 8 to -3, his other metrics are at least positive.

For as bad as García has been — and -0.1 WAR is bad — he’s also inexpensive, in the first year of a two-year, $14 million extension, after which he’ll still have two years of control, giving him long-term appeal for a team concerned about payroll due to its RSN situation. For now, the defending champions are hoping the offense heats up in time to support a pitching staff bolstered by the pending returns of the injured Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, and Cody Bradford.

Mets

Starling Marte is on the IL for the fourth straight season, this time due to a bone bruise in his right knee. He’s hit a respectable .278/.328/.416 (115 wRC+), but his defensive numbers have been brutal (-9 DRS, -8 FRV, -5 UZR), and his recovery has been slow; he lacks a clear timeline for his return. Tyrone Taylor and DJ Stewart have done most of the work since mid-June. Taylor has hit .228/.272/.392 (89 wRC+) with 0.4 WAR in 203 plate appearances while playing all over the outfield, with a team-high 4 DRS. Stewart has hit .173/.326/.309 (94 wRC+) with zero WAR and is probably on the bubble if the Mets — who beginning with their May 30 win over the Diamondbacks have gone 27-13 to climb to 49-46, with 43.6% Playoff Odds — make an addition.