The 2024 Replacement-Level Killers: Catcher & Third Base

Today, we have a two-fer of Killers lists covering a couple of key defensive positions, specifically the hot corner and behind the plate. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

Cubs

Following the free agent departure of Willson Contreras, last year the catching corps of Yan Gomes, Tucker Barnhart, and rookie Miguel Amaya ranked 21st in WAR. Heading into this season, it made at least some sense on paper to have the 25-year-old Amaya — a former Top 100 prospect who lost significant development time to the pandemic and November 2021 Tommy John surgery — get more playing time while moving the 37-year-old Gomes, whose framing metrics had declined, into a backup role. Unfortunately, both have been terrible. Amaya has hit just .201/.266/.288 (59 wRC+) with average-ish defense (good blocking, poor throwing) en route to -0.1 WAR. Gomes was even worse both at the plate (.154/.179/.242, 15 wRC+) and behind it (-5 DRS, -4 FRV, -3.9 FRM) before getting released on June 21, replaced by Tomás Nido, who had just been released by the Mets. Nido has hit .202/.229/.331 (57 wRC+) overall but is just 4-for-41 as a Cub. Defensively, he’s got a mixed bag of metrics, though he’s been a whisker above average framing-wise.

With the Cubs running last in the NL Central at 46-51, they’re more likely to be sellers than buyers at the trade deadline. Even with good catching prospects at Triple-A (Moises Ballesteros, 50 FV) and Double-A (Pablo Aliendo, 40 FV), they could improve at the position, particularly with the bar so low given Amaya’s struggles. If they wanted to do something short term on the theory that it could help them get back into the race and give them an inside track on upcoming free agencies, the Rockies’ Elias Díaz and the Blue Jays’ Danny Jansen are the top names on the market, with Díaz’s backup, Jacob Stallings, having an uncharacteristically strong season that could draw interest as well.

Pirates

After trusting 2021 first pick Henry Davis only enough to let him catch two innings during his 62-game rookie season, the Pirates opened the season with him as their starting catcher, though be fair, the sudden promotion owed something to Yasmani Grandal’a being sidelined by plantar fasciitis. In any event, Davis has hit just .153/.267/.235 (48 wRC+) with a whopping 39.2% strikeout rate. He was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis in early May, recalled a month later, and soon sidelined by a concussion; now he’s back at Indy after recovering. Grandal has actually been even less effective than Davis at the plate, hitting .178/.207/.295 (36 wRC+) thus far. With -0.9 WAR in 917 plate appearances across the past three seasons, the 35-year-old former All-Star may be cooked.

The good news is that the Pirates traded for Joey Bart in early April, and the change of scenery has served the former heir apparent to Buster Posey well. Though he missed a month due to a left thumb injury, the 27-year-old Bart — the second pick of the 2018 draft — has played solid defense while hitting .236/.330/.472 (123 wRC+) in 103 PA; his three-run homer on Sunday against the White Sox helped the Pirates finish the first half with a 48-48 record, their first time at .500 or better heading into the All-Star break since 2016. It’s still a small sample, but with seven starts in the team’s past nine games, it appears the Pirates may have found their new starter. Whether or not they can get anything out of Grandal, or what Davis’ future looks like, are other matters, but it might make sense to roll with 29-year-old Jason Delay as a backup, as he did a good job defensively last year and is currently mired in Triple-A.

Rangers

The 2023 season was a big one for Jonah Heim. He made his first All-Star team, won his first Gold Glove, set career bests with 18 home runs, a 103 wRC+, and 3.8 WAR, and won a World Series. His follow-up campaign hasn’t gone so well, as he’s hit just .241/.290/.354 (80 wRC+), and where he was outstanding defensively last year (10 runs above average in framing, three above in throwing according to Statcast), he’s regressed to average this year. While his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are about as good as last year (if not better), his groundball rate has increased from 36.3% to 41.9%, which has cost him about 50 points of expected slugging percentage.

Given Heim’s lack of power, one has to wonder about the state of his left wrist. He missed 15 days due to a tendon injury last August and at one point appeared bound for surgery but returned rapidly; since then, he’s slugged just .348 across 530 plate appearances, including the postseason. Fatigue may also be a factor given that Heim has caught more innings than any catcher besides Cal Raleigh and Shea Langeliers over the past two seasons — and he’d top both of them if we counted postseasons.

Regardless, backup Andrew Knizner has rarely shown he’s more than replacement-level fodder, totaling -0.7 WAR with a 67 wRC+ across 878 PA during his career. If the Rangers are staying in the race, an upgrade to someone better equipped to share the load with Heim — even Stallings if not Jansen or Díaz — could really help. And if they’re out, perhaps they could give their regular a bit of a breather in hopes that his performance rebounds.

Cubs

Christopher Morel’s 18 home runs put him on pace to surpass last year’s total of 26, but just about everything else about his game has gone backward. He’s hitting just .202/.303/.387 for a 96 wRC+, down 23 points from last year, and while he’s cut his strikeout rate from 31.0% to 23.5%, he’s also shed 2.5 mph in average exit velocity (from 92.1 mph to 89.6). His .248 xBA and .468 xSLG are quite similar to last year’s numbers, and his .354 xwOBA is a 14-point improvement, but where his wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by seven points in 2023, his actual production is 51 points shy of his expected mark this season. Maybe it’s just bad luck, but his extreme pull rate (48.3%) could be a factor, particularly given that he pulls so many balls on the ground; righties are hitting .210 and slugging .248 on pulled grounders, but Morel is at .164 AVG/.178 SLG. Defensively, he ranks last at the position in both FRV and DRS (-8 in each) and seventh-worst in UZR (-2.4). Yeesh.

The most readily available in-house options, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal, aren’t too exciting. Wisdom, who played 61 games at third last year and 105 in 2022, has scuffled in a utility role (.196/.279/.391, 89 wRC+) and was shaky with the glove at third last year. Meanwhile, there’s nothing in the performance of Madrigal, who’s nearing a return from a fractured left hand, that suggests he can do better, at least on the offensive side. The most interesting alternative is Matt Shaw, their first-round pick last year out of Maryland, and a 55-FV prospect who was no. 32 on our Top 100 Prospects list this spring. He’s already at Double-A Tennessee, where he’s hitting .247/.352/.416 (127 wRC+) and could be worth a look later in the season, though the question is whether he’s ready defensively.

Dodgers

The Dodgers were 29-16 when Max Muncy suffered a strained oblique in mid-May. The 33-year-old slugger wasn’t having a stellar season, but he was hitting .223/.323/.475 (120 wRC+) with 1.1 WAR through 40 games. His replacements have combined to “hit” .147/.237/.237 (41 wRC+) in 199 plate appearances and have netted -1.1 WAR, and while the team’s other injuries — Mookie Betts, Jason Heyward, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow are among the most notable — haven’t helped, that lack of production at third has contributed to the Dodgers’ 27-25 record since Muncy went down.

Enrique Hernández has started 26 of the team’s 52 games in Muncy’s absence and has managed just a 45 wRC+ in 119 PA while playing third base; in what’s now his third straight year of replacement-level play, overall he’s hit .147/.237/.237 (61 wRC+) with -0.1 WAR in 213 PA. Cavan Biggio has started 12 games at third with a 73 wRC+ in that capacity; including his time with the Blue Jays, he’s hit .193/.316/.280 (81 wRC+) with 0.2 WAR in 179 PA. Chris Taylor has started 10 games at third with similarly bad results there; even with a strong June, he’s hitting just .156/.273/.252 (58 wRC+) with -0.5 WAR in 173 PA. Miguel Rojas has gone 2-for-20 in his brief time at third, but he has been a surprisingly strong fill-in for Betts at shortstop. This might merit continuing to play Rojas there, with Betts shifting over to second, once the superstar returns from his fractured left hand.

With Muncy shut down from swinging off a tee, he’s unlikely to return until “at least” August, according to manager Dave Roberts, but in the meantime, the Dodgers desperately need to clear out some dead wood. The Rockies’ Ryan McMahon would probably be the Dodgers’ top choice, but he’s signed through 2027 and might be prohibitively costly in trade, particularly within the division. The Rays’ Isaac Paredes, who’s under control through 2027, would be costly as well. A league-average hitter who can field, such as the Orioles’ Ramón Urías, would be a significant upgrade, a player who could slide into the Hernández role if and when Muncy returns. Prying him from the Orioles, even with their infield depth, is another matter.

Yankees

As I noted in the installment on second basemen, the Yankees infield has been hit hard by injuries. DJ LeMahieu didn’t make his season debut until May 28 due to a nondisplaced fracture in his right foot; since returning, he’s been a shell of his former self, hitting just .188/.284/.214 with three extra-base hits, all doubles, across 135 plate appearances. Jon Berti, acquired from the Marlins to fill in for LeMahieu, has been limited to 17 games due to stints on the IL for groin and calf strains, and he’s yet to barrel a single ball. Oswald Peraza suffered a subscapularis strain in his right shoulder in March and has struggled mightily at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (.210/.325/.251, 59 wRC+ in 44 games) since rehabbing. J.D. Davis, acquired from the A’s on June 23, played just five games before landing on the IL due to a bout of the flu.

Amid all that, 25-year-old Oswaldo Cabrera leads the team with 61 games and 53 starts at third. The versatile switch-hitter gave the Yankees a much-needed boost when he arrived in late 2022, but he’s been overexposed this year, hitting just .238/.288/.341 (80 wRC+) in 234 PA. Given the Yankees’ lack of productive hitters besides Aaron Judge and Juan Soto — Ben Rice is the only non-injured regular with a wRC+ of 100 or better — this is a spot ripe for upgrade. Paredes is unlikely to be dealt within the division. McMahon would be a better fit who could slot into the team’s longer-term plans — if the Yankees are convinced his offensive uptick this year is sustainable.

Pirates

Last year, in his fourth major league season, Ke’Bryan Hayes set career highs in home runs (15), wRC+ (101) and WAR (3.2) despite playing in just 124 games. The key was better contact than ever; he shaved more than seven points off his groundball rate, to 41.8%, increased his average launch angle from 5.2 degrees to 13.2, and set full-season bests in average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel and hard-hit rates (7.4% and 48.3%, respectively). Alas, in his age-27 season he’s regressed, batting a meager .244/.297/.311 (72 wRC+) with a groundball rate that’s spiked to 51.4%. His average launch angle is back down to 5.1 degrees, his exit velo to 88.6 mph, and his barrel and hard-hit rates (2.3% and 43.6%, respectively) are career lows. Thanks to good defense (7 DRS, 3.7 UZR, 3 FRV), he’s produced 0.6 WAR, but back in May he landed on the IL for the fourth straight season, and for the third straight it was due to inflammation in his back. Jared Triolo, who’s played 26 games at third to Hayes’ 70, has been replacement level while filling in.

The Pirates have Hayes under contract though 2029, with a club option for ’30. They’ve been mystified and perhaps frustrated by his regression. They don’t sound as though they’re anywhere close to figuring out how to fix him, let alone make a change.