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Treinen, Dodgers Bullpen Carry Los Angeles to Game 1 Win (Oh, and Shohei Homered Too)

Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Three of the best handful of hitters on the planet were on the same field at Yankee Stadium yesterday, and the Phillies/Mets rivalry is as venomous as any in baseball, but take a straw poll of the real sickos and they’ll tell you the marquee Division Series tilt is the one between the Dodgers and Padres. It’s not only a bitter intradivisional matchup, it marks the MLB playoff debut of the Face of Baseball and features so many of the game’s stars that this paragraph would need to cup its hands together to carry all of their names. Game 1 absolutely delivered on the hype, as the teams traded haymakers every other inning for the first half of an incredibly tense contest before the Dodgers’ relievers snuffed out whatever embers of a rally the Padres could muster from the fifth inning on. Los Angeles won 7-5 to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-five series. Read the rest of this entry »


A.J. Hinch Successfully Plays Bullpen Minesweeper, Tigers Advance to ALDS

Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers continue to ride their wave of jubilation into October.

The most surprising playoff team beat the Houston Astros 5–2 in Game 2 of the best-of-three Wild Card round on Wednesday to advance to the American League Division Series. Manager A.J. Hinch successfully navigated a bullpen game that included only two turbulent innings. Tyler Holton, who threw just two pitches in Detroit’s Game 1 victory, acted as a left-handed opener to ensure the hard-hitting heart of Houston’s order (Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez) would be forced to take an at-bat against a lefty.

After a clean first from Holton, sinkerballer Brenan Hanifee entered the game and narrowly escaped a scoreless second inning that featured two heart-stopping foul balls off the bat of Jason Heyward, either of which would’ve been a one- or two-run double with two outs. Hanifee gave the Tigers five outs, wrapping up his day against Jose Altuve before another lefty, this time Brant Hurter, entered to face Tucker and Alvarez. Hinch’s shrewd matchups and the Tigers’ pitching staff held Tucker hitless in the series.

Every bullpen game comes with a sort of Russian Roulette-ish risk that any one of the pitchers might have a bad day and cough up the game on their own. Hurter, who had a microscopic 3% walk rate in his 45 big league innings this year, looked for a minute like he might be that guy. He surrendered four baserunners and four hard-hit balls across 1 2/3 innings, exiting when Houston’s lineup turned over to Altuve with one out and two runners on in the bottom of the fifth.

At that moment, Hinch called on high-leverage reliever Beau Brieske, who closed Tuesday’s Game 1, to face Altuve and the heavy-hitting part of the Astros order. After getting both Altuve and Tucker out to escape extreme danger in the fifth, Brieske became the pitcher of record in the next half inning when Parker Meadows broke the scoreless tie with a solo home run off of Hunter Brown, who had been dealing to that point. Brown’s pitch to Meadows wasn’t bad; it was so far inside that most hitters would’ve at best been jammed by it, but somehow Meadows tucked his hands in, steered it fair, and doinked it off the right field foul pole.

This was the lone blemish in an otherwise stellar day for Brown, who allowed just four baserunners and struck out nine across 5 2/3 innings. Brieske, who as a former soft-tossing starter turned fire-breathing reliever looks like he might be a Liam Hendriks sequel of sorts, navigated the rest of the top half of Houston’s order in the bottom of the sixth.

Then for a couple innings all hell broke loose. Hinch called upon 22-year-old Jackson Jobe, one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, to work the bottom of the seventh. Jobe, who entered the game with four innings of Major League experience, nearly had a nuclear meltdown as he plunked Victor Caratini, narrowly avoided a pitch clock violation, couldn’t hear the PitchCom through the Houstonian crowd noise, and allowed consecutive singles to Jeremy Peña and Mauricio Dubón to load the bases. Astros manager Joe Espada then pulled his bench’s power-hitting lever by pinch hitting Jon Singleton for Chas McCormick with the bags full and nobody out. After Singleton took a very healthy rip at an early-count pitch, which he fouled back, he hit a well-struck grounder to a diving Spencer Torkelson whose on-target, one-hop throw to the plate was bobbled by the usually sure-handed catcher Jake Rogers.

Not only had the Astros scored, but the Tigers had failed to notch an out, and suddenly the top of Houston’s order was due to hit with the bases still juiced. Altuve hit a fairly shallow fly ball into foul territory along the right field line, where Matt Vierling caught it. The right fielder seemed surprised that Peña made an aggressive attempt to score, and his rather lackadaisical throw home was barely too late to snare Peña. Houston took a 2–1 lead.

With the Tigers seemingly flailing and Tucker and Alvarez due up, Hinch removed Jobe (who seemed miffed at Vierling’s effort on the prior play as he left the field) in favor of sinker/slider lefty Sean Guenther, who got Tucker to ground into an inning-ending double play to keep the Tigers within single-swing striking distance.

To say the Tigers responded to the lead change in the eighth would be an understatement. Houston bullpen fixture Ryan Pressly came in to relieve Bryan Abreu, who bussed Brown’s table in the sixth and worked an easy seventh. Pressly quickly surrendered two singles, threw a wild pitch that allowed the tying run to score, and then walked Colt Keith. Espada then pulled the ripcord on Pressly and inserted closer Josh Hader. Hader walked Torkelson to load the bases and then Andy Ibáñez — pinch-hitting for Zach McKinstry — cleared them with a three-run double hooked into the left field corner.

The Tigers were back on top, 5–2, and they didn’t look back. Guenther worked the eighth and Will Vest, who ripped the sleeves off the bottom of Houston’s lineup across 1 2/3 dominant innings in Game 1, shut the door in the ninth to send the Tigers to the ALDS.

This postseason series win is the Tigers’ first since 2013, when the team was managed by Hall of Famer Jim Leyland and a carton of cigarettes. They have two off days before Saturday’s Game 1 tilt with the division rival Guardians in Cleveland. Right-hander Tanner Bibee, who has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP across 22 innings in his four starts against the Tigers this year, will start for the Guardians. Reese Olson, who was rostered for the Wild Card series but did not pitch, is the presumptive Game 1 starter for Detroit.

Houston’s season ends earlier than it has in any year since 2016, the last time the team failed to make the playoffs. The Astros had advanced to the ALCS in each of the past seven seasons, a borderline dynastic stretch for the franchise. Through that perspective, getting knocked out by the Tigers in the Wild Card Series is a major disappointment. However, at a certain point earlier this year, it would have been considered a miracle for this team to make the postseason at all. The Astros got here despite a glacial start to their season and several key injuries to their pitching staff. Those injuries may impact next year, too, as the timing of Cristian Javier’s and Luis Garcia’s Tommy John surgeries have them on pace for a mid- to late-season return rather than in early 2025.

Additionally, third baseman Alex Bregman, who was Houston’s best player in these two playoff games, hits free agency this offseason. With several highly paid Astros coming off the books (most notably Justin Verlander who didn’t pitch enough for his $40 million option to vest), the team has room to sign Bregman. That said, Tucker and Framber Valdez are both entering their third year of arbitration, and their futures with the club might be impacted by what happens with Bregman. Whatever happens, the Astros may not look the same for too much longer.


National League Wild Card Preview: New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

Jeff Hanisch and Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

It would be unfair to the New York Mets to reduce their regular season to its triumphant climax, an epic, whiplash-inducing, decisive two-run homer by a hobbled Francisco Lindor during a de-facto postseason game necessitated by a hurricane. The Mets clinched a postseason berth and a trip back to Milwaukee for a Wild Card date with the NL Central champion Brewers.

These organizations share some history and DNA that makes for heightened intrigue, and in one case quite literally. Recall that these teams played each other a couple of days ago as the Mets fought for their playoff lives. They also squared off on Opening Day and nearly came to blows as (currently injured) Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil took exception to a Rhys Hoskins slide. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was once a young upstart Brewers GM and (later) POBO who was hired away in a very telegraphed, long-rumored move at the end of last season. Each team has a Megill brother (Tylor or Trevor) on its pitching staff.

Aside from these features, the teams are quite different. Monday was not the first time the Mets had stared down the potential death of their season. They were comfortably under .500 for most of the first half of the year and hit their nadir in early-June when they were 11 games under and sporting playoff odds below 10%. From the start of the season through the end of August, New York’s playoff odds were above 50% for only six days in total. A September surge coupled with the Diamondbacks’ collapse allowed the Mets to eek into the tournament, and now a team that began the 2023 season with the biggest payroll in baseball by a sizeable margin enters the 2024 playoffs as a plucky underdog that has developed a battle-tested edge during the last two months of play.

The Brewers, on the other hand, have been coasting since June. They were the first team in the league to clinch a playoff spot, and they tout the third-best run differential (+136) in all of baseball, behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. Almost exactly a year ago, it was announced that front-end starter Brandon Woodruff would require shoulder surgery. His loss and the pre-season trade of Corbin Burnes made the NL Central feel like it was up for grabs. Instead, Milwaukee’s young core of hitters carried it to a cozy division title despite a season-ending injury to All-Star outfielder Christian Yelich.

At an average age of 26.4 years old, the Brewers position player group was the second youngest in the National League, behind only the rebuilding Washington Nationals. The Brewers ranked fourth in the league in position player WAR this year despite comfortably having the lowest slugging percentage among the other clubs in the top 10. While Milwaukee has a few dangerous power hitters (most notably catcher William Contreras, shortstop Willy Adames, and tooled-up prodigy Jackson Chourio), the group has largely succeeded via secondary skills like speed, defense, and plate discipline. The Brewers were second in baseball in team walk rate, second in team stolen bases (second baseman Brice Turang led Milwaukee with 50 bags), first in Base Runs (by a lot), and third in defensive Outs Above Average. The Brewers have three shortstop-quality defenders manning their non-first base infield positions and arguably boast the best all-around defense of any playoff team.

The Mets, on the other hand, succeed with power. Though not exceptional or dominant (they did barely sneak into the playoffs, after all) they ranked in the league-wide top 10 of most measures of power talent and production (SLG, ISO, HardHit%, and Barrel%). Lindor had an MVP-caliber season, young corner infielder Mark Vientos hit 27 home runs in just 110 games, Pete Alonso notched yet another 30-homer season, Brandon Nimmo smacked 22 dingers, and despite middling homer totals on the season, both Francisco Alvarez and J.D. Martinez are powerful, dangerous hitters.

And then there’s 34-year-old second baseman (and pop star) Jose Iglesias, who is entering the postseason on an epic heater. He had a hit in each of Monday’s games against Atlanta and is riding a 22-game hitting streak. He slashed .341/.387/.456 this season, having played pretty regularly since June. McNeil’s broken wrist put more pressure on Iglesias to perform down the stretch, and he has delivered well above what anyone could’ve expected.

Game 1’s pitching matchup features Brewers “ace” Freddy Peralta against Mets righty Luis Severino, who was a shrewd and effective reclamation pickup by the Mets during the offseason after their high-profile Scherzer/Verlander staff flopped the year before. The 2024 season was Severino’s first fully healthy one since 2018. Peralta just completed his second straight 30-plus start campaign, and he set a career-high for innings pitched (173 2/3). All four of Peralta’s pitches garnered above-average whiff rates.

Neither team has a particularly strong rotation, and both will likely rely heavily upon their respective bullpen if they’re going to make a deep run into October. The Mets begin the Wild Card round on their back foot in this regard, having just taxed their bullpen across 18 innings in Monday’s doubleheader. Huascar Brazobán and Adam Ottavino pitched in both of Monday’s games. Mets closer Edwin Díaz threw 40 pitches Monday and 26 pitches the day before. All three of them may be unavailable — or at least fatigued — in the first two games of this series.

Contrast that with the Brewers bullpen. Only DL Hall and Hoby Milner pitched on Sunday, giving the rest of Milwaukee’s bullpen at least two days to rest. That includes closer Devin Williams, who has been utterly dominant since his return from multiple stress fractures in his back. Since he was activated just before the trade deadline, Williams has the second-highest K/9 rate (15.78) among relievers, behind only Edwin Díaz, and has posted a 1.25 ERA. He has not allowed a run since August 21. The Mets may be able to counter some of the funky-looking deliveries that the Brewers run out of their bullpen with Jesse Winker, Harrison Bader, or Tyrone Taylor coming off the bench, depending on who starts. But, if only due to the circumstances caused by Hurricane Helene that forced the Mets to cover two games the day before the start of this series, Milwaukee’s bullpen would seem to have a big advantage.

In this series, we have a narrative reversal of the two franchises and markets involved. The Mets — a financial juggernaut that snuck into the playoffs in a year that was supposed to be a “step back” — now feel like they’re playing with house money, while the Brewers, who performed during the regular season like one of the sport’s best teams, check many of the boxes of a typical postseason contender, especially the defense and bullpen ones. The winner will earn the right to tango with the Phillies.


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 9/27

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where it is somehow still 100 degrees every day. I’ve got an instructs game today at 11 so we’ll keep today’s chat pretty tight to the hour so I can prep my gear and drive there. I have a cat draped over one forearm right now, this is a very popular chat.

12:04
James: Always appreciate that chats, Eric! SD system has thinned quite a bit, who is the next potential dude behind De Vries

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Humberto Cruz has a shot to be a big deal. Super smooth and projectable, could have premium command and a couple plus pitches.

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like he’s been shut down for the year, but the HS kids from the draft class throw this weekend here in AZ so I’m hoping to see Mayfield then. He could also be an answer to your question.

12:06
Guest: how much does TJ knock Christian Scott down, FV-wise and future role-wise?

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’ll start and be a mid-rotation guy (provided the rehab goes well, etc.).

Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Ballpark Roki Sasaki’s Market

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees’ acquisition of $750,000 worth of 2024 international bonus pool space at the trade deadline got my gears turning around the seemingly looming Roki Sasaki posting. There has been considerable reporting (such as this Chelsea Janes Washington Post jawn) to suggest that teams expect, or at least are planning for, Sasaki to be posted this offseason, and my sources tend to agree (though not universally). In this piece, I’m going to talk about how Sasaki looks (spoiler: not his best), how his posting will be different than that of most other Japanese players if he indeed comes over this offseason or next, the way teams have been behaving and preparing for his potential posting, and what shenanigans they might get up to as they continue to do so.

For those unfamiliar…

Sasaki has been the LeBron James of Japanese baseball since his junior year, a known generational high school talent who has gone on to deliver on and perhaps exceed expectations at the highest level of Japanese baseball. Sasaki turns 23 in November and his feats of strength are already legendary. He touched 101 in high school and once threw nearly 500 pitches in an eight-day span, including a 12-inning, 194-pitch complete game during which he also hit the game-winning two-run homer. He was the first pick in the 2019 NPB Draft by the Chiba Lotte Marines, had a sub-2.00 ERA in his 2021 rookie season, and then transcended the sport in 2022 when he threw 17 consecutive perfect innings that April. Read the rest of this entry »


Ranking the Prospects Traded at the 2024 Deadline

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Ranked and briefly analyzed below are the prospects who have been traded during the loosely defined “2024 deadline season,” which for simplicity’s sake I consider all of July. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of have been analyzed at length on this site. An index of those pieces can be found here; you can also click the hyperlink in the “Trade” column below, which will take you to the relevant article. I’ve moved all of the 35+ FV and above players listed here to their new orgs over on The Board, so you can click through to see where they rank among their new teammates and read their full scouting reports. Our Farm System Rankings, which update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up following the draft and the deadline.

2024 Traded Prospects and Minor Leaguers
FV Rank Player Pos Age To From Trade
50 1 Agustin Ramirez C 22.9 MIA NYY Chisholm
Offense-first catcher with huge rotational explosion and bat speed. Probably plays C/1B/DH mix.
50 2 Thayron Liranzo C 21.1 DET LAD Flaherty
Switch-hitter with rare power regardless of position, but especially at catcher. Hit tool improvement becomes imperative if he can’t stick back there.
50 3 Dylan Lesko SP 20.9 TBR SDP J. Adam
Has been super wild coming off TJ. Riding mid-90s heat and an elite changeup give him impact reliever floor even if things stay that way.
50 4 Jake Bloss SP 23.1 TOR HOU Kikuchi
High-floored fourth starter on a competitive club. Plus slider and command, other stuff is average.
45+ 5 George Klassen SP 22.5 LAA PHI Estévez
Once a hard-throwing sideshow with no control, Klassen has somewhat improved this while also adding a cutter to his upper-90s fastball and plus curve.
45+ 6 Brody Hopkins SP 22.5 TBR SEA Arozarena
Hard-throwing low-slot converted outfielder who has gotten better very quickly in first year of pro ball.
45+ 7 Jared Serna 2B 22.2 MIA NYY Chisholm
Super athletic little second baseman with surprising power for his size. Makes contact despite high-effort swing. Shot to be everyday second baseman; if not, he has an impact utility profile.
45 8 Trey Sweeney SS 24.3 DET LAD Flaherty
Big-framed shortstop with starter-quality contact/power combo that plays down due to his downward swing path.
45 9 Samuel Aldegheri SP 22.9 LAA PHI Estévez
Sneaky low-90s fastball with ride, plus slider, plus command. No. 4/5 starter look.
45 10 Nick Yorke 2B 22.3 PIT BOS Priester
Below-average 2B/LF defender with strong hitting track record. Bizarre reverse splits, hits righties much better. Not quite a regular because of his defense.
45 11 Yujanyer Herrera SP 21.0 COL MIL Mears
Big-framed almost-21-year-old righty with smooth delivery, plus command, plus slider and low-to-mid-90s fastball. No. 4/5 starter look.
40+ 12 José Tena 2B 23.4 WSN CLE L. Thomas
Free-swinging infielder with power. Flashy but flawed defender. Probably gets 2B/3B reps soon.
40+ 13 Deyvison De Los Santos DH 21.1 MIA ARI Puk
Stout slugger with plus-plus power, zero approach, and shaky defense. Volatile low-OBP type in the Maikel Franco mold.
40+ 14 Robby Snelling SP 20.6 MIA SDP T. Scott
Ultra-competitive lefty who goes right at hitters with relatively vanilla stuff.
40+ 15 Jackson Baumeister SP 22.1 TBR BAL Eflin
Amateur two-way prospect (catcher) who is still learning to pitch. Works in the low-to-mid-90s with life, has two good breaking balls. Sketchy delivery creates relief risk.
40+ 16 Mason Barnett SP 23.7 OAK KCR Erceg
Burly mid-90s righty with above-average slider and curveball. Throws strikes despite long arm action, in the backend starter/swingman area but should thrive in one of those roles.
40+ 17 Ty Johnson SP 22.9 TBR CHC Paredes
6-foot-6 small school starter with burgeoning velocity and plus breaking ball. Has improved a lot during lone pro season. Rotation upside w/changeup growth.
40+ 18 Alex Clemmey SP 19.0 WSN CLE L. Thomas
Lanky teenage lefty with mid-90s fastball and rapidly improving slider. Far from bigs but has realistic late-inning reliever outcome with time to develop into more.
40+ 19 Will Klein SIRP 24.7 OAK KCR Erceg
Upper-90s reliever with a good curveball. Ready for big league innings right now.
40+ 20 Seth Johnson SP 25.9 PHI BAL G. Soto
Mid-90s starter still building back from TJ. Pitch mix and command are more typical of a good reliever than a starter. He’s on the 40-man right now.
40+ 21 Adam Mazur SP 23.3 MIA SDP T. Scott
Lanky rookie big league righty with mid-90s fastball that plays way down, especially in the zone. Best fit might be to pitch backwards in a long relief role.
40+ 22 Mac Horvath CF 23.0 TBR BAL Eflin
Tried center field just before he was traded and looked pretty good. Valuable righty utility type with above-average power.
40+ 23 Cayden Wallace 3B 23.0 WSN KCR H. Harvey
Multi-positional corner utilityman with roughly average contact and power.
40+ 24 Jeral Perez 2B 19.7 CHW LAD Edman/Fedde/Pham
Young, power-hitting 2B/3B who has gotten stronger very quickly. Stiff defender, versatility unlikely, needs to mash so he can be an everyday second baseman.
40 25 Jonatan Clase CF 22.2 TOR SEA Y. García
Speedy outfielder fairly new to switch-hitting. Raw defensive feel. Real tools and late breakout possibility. Don’t get fatigued here.
40 26 Gregory Barrios SS 20.3 TBR MIL Civale
Slick-fielding shortstop with plus feel for contact. Very slight of build, utility type unless he gets stronger.
40 27 Graham Pauley 3B 23.9 MIA SDP T. Scott
2023 breakout guy who regressed in 2024. Lacks a position. Sweet lefty swing should enable him to be a part-time contributor anyway.
40 28 Connor Norby LF 24.1 MIA BAL T. Rogers
Relatively bearish here. Below-average second base defender whose strikeouts have exploded. More a 1 WAR LF/DH type than a potential regular.
40 29 Eddinson Paulino 3B 22.1 TOR BOS Jansen
Shot to be low-end third base regular with plus glove there. More likely part-time lefty infielder.
40 30 Sabin Ceballos 3B 22.0 SFG ATL Soler
Contact and defense-oriented third baseman who lacks the power typical of third.
40 31 Cutter Coffey SS 20.2 TOR BOS Jansen
Flashy but inconsistent defense. Low-end regular shortstop potential if he can stay there, Daniel Robertson comp if he can’t.
40 32 Aidan Smith CF 20.0 TBR SEA Arozarena
Projectable center fielder with suspect hit tool.
40 33 Joseph Montalvo SP 22.2 DET TEX Chafin
Small-ish low-90s righty starter with a good breaking ball. No. 5 starter look with upside if you’re keen to project based on his gorgeous delivery.
40 34 Kade Morris SP 22.1 OAK NYM Blackburn
Breaking ball-centric backend starter type.
40 35 Jun-Seok Shim SP 20.2 MIA PIT B. De La Cruz
Bigger-bodied guy injured for all of 2024 so far (shoulder). Sits 95 with carry and has a promising curveball.
40 36 Alexander Albertus 3B 19.8 CHW LAD Edman/Fedde/Pham
Athletic infielder with contact and plate skills but not much power. Put on IL with tibia fracture shortly before the trade.
40 37 William Bergolla SS 19.8 CHW PHI T. Banks
Has a Luis Guillorme look. Super skilled barrel control and defensive hands, below-average athlete.
40 38 Andrew Pintar CF 23.4 MIA ARI Puk
Power/speed center fielder who is still learning the position. Has missed lots of time with injury.
40 39 Rafael Ramirez Jr. SS 19.0 WSN CLE L. Thomas
Viable shortstop with average power and below-average hit tool.
40 40 International Pool Space $750k 2024 NYY HOU C. Ferguson
This helps the Yankees get a little closer to front of the pack in terms of remaining 2024 bonus pool space, which means a better late-2024 shot at Rōki Sasaki depending on the timing of his posting.
40 41 Jack Neely SIRP 24.2 CHC NYY Leiter
Neely is a pretty typical mid-90s fastball/plus slider middle reliever.
40 42 Hunter Bigge SIRP 26.1 TBR CHC Paredes
Has dealt with injuries, wildness, and fluctuating velocity. Currently healthy and peaking, sitting in the upper-90s with a nasty low-90s cutter/slider.
40 43 Moisés Chace SP 21.1 PHI BAL G. Soto
Stuff-over-control starter prospect with good secondaries and an uphill fastball.
40 44 Bradley Blalock MIRP 23.6 COL MIL Mears
Vertical fastball reliever look, splitter and breaking ball pepper the top of the zone.
40 45 Patrick Reilly SP 22.8 BAL PIT B. Cook
Fastball-heavy righty with a good cutter/slider. Probably a reliever, masquerading as a starter right now.
40 46 Eric Silva MIRP 21.8 DET SFG Canha
Slider-heavy relief prospect, advanced command for his age.
40 47 Luis Peralta SIRP 23.6 COL PIT Beeks
Standard middle inning lefty prospect with upshot fastball and plus slider.
40 48 Tyler Stuart SP 24.8 WSN NYM Winker
Sixth starter type. Has backend elements but fastball traits cause it to play down.
35+ 49 Ovis Portes SIRP 19.7 CIN BOS L. Sims
Very hard throwing young starter prospect with relief risk due to a lack of command.
35+ 50 Oliver Gonzalez SP 17.8 LAD STL Edman/Fedde/Pham
Super projectable DSL pitcher with present below-average stuff.
35+ 51 Benjamin Cowles SS 24.5 CHC NYY Leiter
Well built, versatile infielder with below-average hit and power tools.
35+ 52 Walter Pennington SIRP 26.3 TEX KCR Lorenzen
Up/down reliever with an above-average slider.
35+ 53 Jarold Rosado SIRP 22.1 CHW KCR DeJong
A hard-throwing young relief prospect with two future plus pitches. Rosado is sitting 94-97 and has a great two-planed curveball.
35+ 54 Thomas Balboni Jr. SIRP 24.1 NYY SDP Lockridge
Balboni is a low-slot reliever with a good slider who has had a two-tick velo spike this season.
35+ 55 Liam Hicks C 25.2 DET TEX C. Kelly
Hicks has great plate discipline and feel for airborne contact, but he lacks power and isn’t a good catcher.
35+ 56 Will Wagner 3B 26.0 TOR HOU Kikuchi
Wagner can hit but lacks a position.
35+ 57 Josh Rivera SS 21.8 TOR CHC Pearson
Rivera is a viable shortstop with a big time arm and a hit tool that’s lacking.
35+ 58 Homer Bush Jr. CF 22.8 TBR SDP J. Adam
Bush is an elite runner with a big long-term defensive ceiling in center. His bat is light.
35+ 59 Yohendrick Pinango LF 22.2 TOR CHC Pearson
Pinango is a spreadsheet darling with a more middling visual report. The stocky lefty-hitting left fielder has good power for his size, but his swing’s length is a concern.
35+ 60 Matthew Lugo LF 23.2 LAA BOS L. García
Lugo has moved from shortstop to left field and improved his approach. He’s now a pull-power left fielder who fits toward the bottom of a 40-man.
35+ 61 Trey McGough SIRP 26.3 CHW BAL E. Jiménez
McGough is a soft-tossing lefty reliever with a good slider.
35+ 62 Paul Gervase SIRP 24.2 TBR NYM T. Zuber
A 6-foot-10 righty with a low slot. 91-94 mph fastball is a nightmare in on the hands of righties.
35+ 63 Wilfredo Lara 3B 20.3 MIA NYM Brazoban
Versatile defender with power-over-hit offensive profile. Shot to be a utility guy.
35+ 64 Yeferson Vargas SIRP 20.0 LAA BOS L. García
Undersized righty up to 98 with a promising breaking ball. Probable reliever.
35+ 65 J.D. Gonzalez C 18.8 TBR SDP J. Adam
Sweet-swinging developmental catcher with raw all-around game.
35+ 66 Tyler Owens SIRP 23.6 DET TEX C. Kelly
Fastball-heavy up/down reliever likely to debut within a year.
35+ 67 Ricky Vanasco SIRP 25.8 DET LAD Cash
Oft-injured reliever with three plus pitches at peak.
35 68 Niko Kavadas 1B 25.8 LAA BOS L. García
Husky 1B/DH with plus-plus power but 30-grade contact.
35 69 Andrés Chaparro 1B 25.8 WSN ARI Floro
First baseman with fair contact/power blend, nice upper-level corner infield depth option.
35 70 Charles McAdoo 3B/OF 22.4 TOR PIT Kiner-Falefa
Small-school power breakout guy with looming strikeout issues due to his bat path.
35 71 Garret Forrester C/3B 22.7 MIA PIT B. De La Cruz
Oregon State stalwart who attempted catcher conversion during 2024 first half. Has played more third base lately. Well-rounded hitter, old for his level.
35 72 Jacob Bresnahan SP 19.1 SFG CLE Cobb
Teenage lefty without huge projection. Great looking arm action, low-90s fastball but it rides, average slider.
35 73 Ronaldys Jimenez SP 18.7 PIT SDP M. Pérez
DSL lefty up to 95, has a projectable frame and slider.
35 74 Nicolas Carreno SP 18.1 NYM PIT J. Walker
Carreno is a walk-prone, lightning-armed little DSL lefty who is sitting 95 and has a potentially good slider.
35 75 Michael Flynn SIRP 28.0 TBR LAD Rosario
Lower-slot sinker/slider/cutter reliever with low-leverage upside.
35 76 Brandon Lockridge CF 27.4 SDP NYY Enyel/Balboni
A 27-year-old depth center fielder with a plus glove and speed.
35 77 Billy Cook 2B/OF 25.6 PIT BAL P. Reilly
Older 2B/OF with above-average power and 2024 K% improvement.
35 78 Kelly Austin SIRP 23.6 NYY HOU C. Ferguson
Low-90s fastball with natural cut and carry. Good breaking stuff. Like a softer-tossing Bryan Shaw.
35 79 Chase Lee SIRP 26.0 DET TEX Chafin
Low-slot righty with a good slider. Righty specialist look.
35 80 Will Schomberg SP 23.5 MIA SEA Chargois
An undrafted free agent out of Davidson with elite breaking ball spin. Sits 91-93, throws a lot of cutters and curveballs.
35 81 Matthew Etzel OF 22.3 TBR BAL Eflin
Upper-level performer with smaller frame and modest tools. Good upper-level depth type.
35 82 Rhylan Thomas OF 24.3 SEA NYM Stanek
Contact-only corner outfielder. Upper-level depth.
35 83 Jacob Sharp C 22.9 TOR SEA Y. García
Athletic little catcher with plus contact rates.
35 84 Jared Dickey OF 22.4 OAK KCR Erceg
Corner outfielder with solid bat-to-ball skills, less power than a typical LF/RF.
35 85 Ryan Zeferjahn SIRP 26.4 LAA BOS L. García
Up/down reliever with upper-90s fastball that lacks movement.
35 86 RJ Schreck OF 24.1 TOR SEA J. Turner
Old-for-level A-ball performer. Contact-driven corner outfielder without power.
35 87 Jay Harry UTIL 22.0 TOR MIN T. Richards
Lefty-hitting multi-positional player with pull-oriented approach. Physical tools are pretty light.
35 88 Jay Beshears MIF 22.2 MIA SDP T. Scott
Lacks arm for shortstop. Swings hard and is making above-average contact this year but, to the eye, it isn’t sustainable.
35 89 Gilberto Batista SP 19.6 TOR BOS Jansen
Sinker/slider teenager who sits 91-93; his breaking ball ranges from 82-90 mph.
35 90 Abrahan Ramirez 2B/3B 19.8 MIA NYY Chisholm
Compact contact-oriented 2B/3B currently on the complex.
35 91 Moises Bolivar 3B 17.1 LAD BOS Paxton
A power-hitting flier from the DSL who needs to work on his throwing accuracy and plate discipline.
35 92 Andruw Salcedo C 21.8 SEA CIN France
Husky switch-hitting catcher who hasn’t played very much across four pro seasons.

Reliever Roundup: Gregory Soto, Enyel De Los Santos, and the Enduring Luis García

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies and Orioles consummated their second trade of the deadline period yesterday, as hard-throwing 29-year-old lefty Gregory Soto was sent to Baltimore in exchange for pitching prospects Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace. Soto has been having a pretty typical season, with a 4.08 ERA across 35.1 innings (43 appearances). He’s still throwing hard, and he’s accumulated a ton of walks and strikeouts having leaned more heavily on his incredible slider than in prior seasons. After a career-best year at avoiding free passes in 2023, Soto’s walk rate has ticked back up closer to his career norm of 12%; his fastball is also generating fewer swings and misses than ever before at a paltry 4.9% swinging strike rate, which is really low for a 98 mph heater.

Soto had mostly been squeezed out of high-leverage situations in Philly in deference to Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman, and was likely to see his opportunities further reduced by the recent acquisition of Carlos Estévez. While there’s nothing wrong with having a lefty who sits 98 as one of your lower-leverage guys, the way the market shaped up for multi-year relievers perhaps made it tempting for the Phillies to get more back in trade than is typical for a pitcher who is near the bottom of a bullpen depth chart. This one-for-two deal helps to build back a little of their farm system after the Estévez and Austin Hays trades.

In Baltimore, Soto joins Keegan Akin and Cionel Pérez as the lefties in the Orioles bullpen. He is under team control through next season. Any time an org like the Orioles acquires a pitcher whose results feel as though they’ve been far worse than his talent, you wonder if there’s something they might change about him that could help him be great. But Soto’s previous orgs, the Tigers and Phillies, have had recent success at improving pitchers, including late-bloomers like Hoffman. Perhaps there’s no low-hanging developmental fruit for the Orioles to reap here; Soto is 29 and might just be a semi-frustrating player who performs below what is typical for someone with his arm strength, let alone a lefty. That’s still constitutes a middle-inning upgrade for Baltimore. Will one of these teams be cursing themselves in a few months for having made the other more complete?

The Phillies got back two pitchers, one could help them as soon as next year, with the other being more of a developmental piece. Johnson, who is about to turn 26, had posted a 2.63 ERA (with a FIP and xFIP in the 4.13-4.26 range) as a starter at Double-A Bowie prior to the trade. The pandemic and an unfortunately timed Tommy John have prevented Johnson from posting a starter’s load of innings for consecutive seasons, and his 65 innings pitched as of the trade is already the most he’s thrown in a single season since 2021. Johnson sits 94-96 with riding life. An upper-80s cutter is his secondary weapon of choice, and he also has a mid-70s curveball with huge depth. There isn’t a platoon-neutralizing weapon here and the 2025 season will be Johnson’s last option year (unless the Phillies are given an extra option year because of his 2022 TJ), which together will probably squeeze Johnson into a bullpen role sometime next year.

Chace (pronounced CHA-say) is a medium-framed 21-year-old righty in his fourth pro season who has struck out more than a batter per inning each year of his career. Working in a piggyback role at Aberdeen prior to the trade, Chase has a good chance to develop a starter-quality pitch mix but probably not starter-quality command. He sits 93-96 with plus-plus vertical ride, he has a plus, 81-85 mph sweeper-style slider, and his changeup flashes bat-missing tail. Chace’s slider feel is advanced but that isn’t true of his other offerings. He’s Rule 5 eligible after this season and he’s going to be one of the more fascinating cases for protection. There are pretty clearly two viable big league pitches here right now, but Chace is quite far from the majors. Right now, I’d call him an unlikely add and bet that he doesn’t get Rule 5’d.

The Boston Red Sox added 12-year veteran big league reliever Luis García to the back of their bullpen, which to this point was in the bottom third of the league in combined reliever ERA and strikeout rate. Headed to Anaheim are four prospects, three of whom are relatively close to the big leagues. Former shortstop and current 23-year-old left fielder Matthew Lugo, 25-year-old first baseman Niko Kavadas, and 26-year-old reliever Ryan Zeferjahn were all at Triple-A Worcester, while 19-year-old pitcher Yeferson Vargas was promoted to Low-A just before the deal.

García has been one of the 50 most productive relievers in baseball since the 2021 season. He’s top 60 in WAR, FIP, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP among relievers who’ve thrown at least 150 innings during that time, essentially a viable second-best reliever on a good team even as he climbed into his late-30s. García has a 1.17 WHIP this season even as his fastball velocity has declined two ticks from peak and a little more than one tick compared from last season. His sinker, splitter, and slider (especially the two secondaries, which are plus or better offerings generating huge swing-and-miss against big leaguers) remain good enough for García to play a relatively high-leverage role on a contender.

García hits free agency again this winter. It might feel like giving up four players is a lot for two months of a reliever, but if any team had a 40-man crunch this offseason it was going to be the Red Sox because of how many potentially serviceable position players they had in their system. Several of those players are now gone, including Kavadas, Lugo, Zeferjahn, Eddinson Paulino, and Nick Yorke. It’s good to have depth in the event of injury, but it’s plausible the Red Sox would either have lost a couple of these guys in the Rule 5 draft this offseason or clogged their roster trying to keep them.

Kavadas is striking out a third of the time at Triple-A, but he has enormous power and had a .975 OPS at the time of the trade. He’s posted a 57% hard-hit rate in Worcester and his swing is geared for lift in the extreme, with 20 degrees of launch on average. There will probably be a narrow window in Kavadas’ prime when he can get to enough power to be a relevant big league first baseman. A career trajectory similar to what Jared Walsh had with the Angels is feasible, where he enjoys one or two peak years of big power but over time is hindered by strikeouts in a way that is a problem for the overall profile of a 1B/DH athlete. Think Mike Ford.

A swing change and a more patient approach have unlocked an extra gear of power for Lugo and may have salvaged the former second round pick’s career, especially as he’s slid all the way down the defensive spectrum from shortstop to left field. His mistake-crushing style has him on pace to hit 30 homers in the minors this year. Hellbent on pulling the baseball, Lugo struggles to cover the outer third of the zone and swings inside a ton of pitches out there. Given his hit tool limitations and the way his defensive versatility has trended down, he looks more like an above-replacement up/down outfielder than a consistent role player.

Zeferjahn is a hard-throwing reliever who has averaged 96-98 with his fastball this year. He was utterly dominant at Double-A early in the season and was promoted to Worcester, where his command has returned to problematic career norms; he’s walking six batters per nine there. Zeferjahn’s fastball plays down because of poor movement and his lack of command, but he essentially has three average pitches and would be an up/down reliever in most orgs. He might play a more significant role for the Angels in the next couple of years. I expect he’ll be added to their 40-man roster this offseason.

Finally, Vargas is a stout, six foot righty who has cut his walks substantially compared to 2023 while also enjoying a two- or three-tick velocity spike. Vargas’ fastball averaged 92-93 last year and a scout who saw him earlier this spring had him sitting 93-95, but when I saw Vargas in June, he held 95-96 and touched 98 across three innings of work. He also has a snappy curveball in the 81-84 mph range that flashed plus on my look. At Vargas’ size, he’s perhaps more likely to be a reliever, but he’s made a ton of progress in the last year, especially in the strike-throwing department. He’s a hard-throwing developmental prospect with a good two-pitch foundation.

The Yankees acquired Enyel De Los Santos and Thomas Balboni Jr. from the Padres in exchange for 27-year-old Triple-A center fielder Brandon Lockridge. The 28-year-old De Los Santos was having a strange, homer-prone season in San Diego prior to the trade but has otherwise performed near his career norms. In 40.1 innings, De Los Santos has a 4.46 ERA, a 28% strikeout rate, and a career-best 7.6% walk rate. His stuff has also been consistent with career norms, but Enyel’s approach to pitching has changed. His slider usage is way up this year and his approach to locating his fastball has also shifted to the upper part of the zone. Here are De Los Santos’ fastball locations against lefties each of the last two years:

Seven of the 11 homers (in 40.1 innings!) De Los Santos has surrendered this year have been off his fastball, a pitch he’s throwing less than ever before. Especially in the Yankee Stadium bandbox, I’d expect some kind of fastball alteration to happen here, even if it’s just a return to more of an east/west style of pitching.

De Los Santos has been in the big leagues since he was 22 but because several of those have been partial seasons, he’s only just now in his arbitration years and will hit free agency after the 2026 season, at age 31. In addition to the other relief pitcher additions that crowded out De Los Santos on the roster, it’s possible the Padres’ more budget-beholden approach post-Peter Seidler made De Los Santos’ looming arb salary consequential. Perhaps the lack of leverage created by this is why the Padres had to attach a prospect to Enyel to get Lockridge. That prospect is the 24-year-old Balboni, a sidearm reliever who has had a two-tick velocity spike this season. Balboni now sits 93-96 and has a high-spin slider. He’s not a great strike-thrower, but he’s got good stuff and a pretty good shot to wear a big league uniform eventually.

Coming back to the Padres is Lockridge, a nice upper-level depth player who can really go get it in center field and who fortifies the Padres’ center field depth behind Jackson Merrill to a degree. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s injury has put pressure on the Padres’ outfield depth and forced David Peralta, who isn’t hitting, into action. Lockridge might be a better big league roster fit than Bryce Johnson, who isn’t as good a defender. Tim Locastro, Óscar Mercado, Cal Mitchell, Tirso Ornelas, and José Azocar are all in El Paso, too.


Pirates Swap Former First Rounders With Red Sox, Add Two Lefty Relievers

Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates have made three trade in the last two days. Yesterday, they swapped post-hype prospects with the Red Sox — struggling right-handed pitcher Quinn Priester for Triple-A 2B/LF Nick Yorke — and added veteran southpaw Jalen Beeks from the Rockies in exchange for minor league lefty Luis Peralta. Then, earlier today, Pittsburgh acquired 29-year-old lefty Josh Walker from the Mets for DSL pitcher Nicolas Carreno. Read the rest of this entry »


White Sox Get Bats Back for Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Today the White Sox made a three-team trade with the Cardinals and Dodgers that sent Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham to St. Louis and Tommy Edman to Los Angeles. In exchange for Edman, the Dodgers picked up the prospect tab in the deal, sending Miguel Vargas and teenage Low-A infielders Jeral Perez and Alexander Albertus to the other side of the Camelback Ranch complex. You can read about the Cardinals and Dodgers parts of the trade here.

The White Sox had mostly gotten pitching back in their previous trades made under new GM Chris Getz, but in this one they turned to hitting, receiving three batters whom I have been a little lower on than the prospect-watching consensus. I like all three players but don’t love any of them, though I think Vargas has a feasible shot to be a decent everyday player, and soon.

The seeds of this deal were planted when Chicago signed Fedde during the offseason. After a lackluster tenure in Washington, Fedde remade himself in a Scottsdale pitching lab and had an incredible 2023 season for the KBO’s NC Dinos, posting a 2.00 ERA in 180.1 innings while striking out 209 and walking just 35. He was named the KBO’s MVP and won their equivalent of the Cy Young. Getz and the White Sox bet a very modest amount ($15 million over two years) that Fedde’s improvements would translate to the big leagues, and they were right. Fedde has pitched well and turned into a prospect piñata. Pham’s salary was a little over $2 million. Essentially paying to acquire prospects (especially hitters) is exactly what a team like the White Sox should be doing, and over the course of about eight months they’ve executed that with Fedde and Pham.

A big part of the reason I was lower on prospect-era Miguel Vargas than my sources and peers was because I didn’t think he could play the infield well, if at all. That has turned out to be true and, after trying a few infield positions besides his native third base, Vargas moved to left field this season. This occurred even as the Dodgers had big league injuries on the dirt, which I think is telling. He isn’t great out in left either, but it’s conceivable he could improve as he continues to play there. I haven’t heard from anyone in the org as to whether the White Sox will revisit the infield with Vargas. If they do it would strike me as a 2025 spring training task rather than something they ask Vargas to do right away.

Vargas is lacking the raw power typical of a great left fielder. He’s not an especially explosive swinger and depends on his feel for sweet-spot contact to generate extra-base power. The combination of Vargas’ plate discipline and this slick barrel feel create enough offense for him to be a lower-impact everyday left fielder. Here’s how some of his performance and talent-indicating metrics compare to that of the average MLB left fielder:

Miguel Vargas Hit Data vs. MLB LF
Contact% Z-Contact% Avg EV Hard Hit% 90th% EV Chase%
Miguel Vargas 80% 86% 89.7 35% 102.4 20%
Avg All LF 76% 84% 89.2 40% 102.7 27%
Avg Top 30 LF 76% 85% 90.0 43% 103.9 27%

These are solid numbers that back up the visual scouting report that this is a skills-over-tools type of hitter. I think he will have produced close to 20th at the position (give or take) when we look back at all the left fielders across the league five years from now. The outfielders in front of Vargas in Los Angeles blocked him from the big league playing time that his minor league performance merited for most of the last two seasons, and he should be given a big league opportunity immediately in Chicago. Andrew Benintendi is under contract until… (checking Roster Resource… holy shnikes) until 2027, and so the White Sox have to figure out what they’re going to do about that. Benintendi is not playing well enough to block Vargas.

The other two infielders in the trade, Alexander Albertus and Jeral Perez, were both playing at Low-A Rancho Cucamonga until Albertus was diagnosed with a lower leg fracture a little over a week ago and put on the IL. Albertus’ name has been bandied about each of the last couple trade deadlines because he does stuff that appeals to both scouts and analysts. The soon-to-be 20-year-old infielder is a career .303/.449/.415 hitter (mostly at the rookie level) who puts the bat on the ball and controls the strike zone. He takes a hellacious cut and has been athletic enough to do so while maintaining strikeout rates down in the 14-18% range the last two seasons (MLB average is 22%). As hard as he swings, Albertus doesn’t generate a ton of power and his swing path runs downhill. He’s a much cleaner defensive fit at third base than at shortstop, and he might end up being quite good there. (He’s played all three non-1B infield spots the last couple of seasons.) This is the Yandy Díaz branch of the infield prospect tree (OBP and contact skills, third base fit, less power than you want) where Díaz is what happens when the athlete becomes very, very strong deep into his twenties. Paths to an everyday role will probably require that of Albertus. He is more likely to be a utility guy.

If you want evidence of Albertus’ shot to get strong, look no further than Jeral Perez. Perez has already become much more physical than I would have guessed having watched him a ton in Arizona last year when he was a compact Others of Note-type player in the Dodgers system. He now has average big league raw power at age 19 and, physically, looks maxed out. Perez’s compact build and strong top hand through contact allow him to be on time with regularity, but his feel for moving the barrel around is not great. Though he’s posted above-average contact rates so far, I do worry that he is a candidate to be exposed by better fastballs in the upper minors, ones located on the upper-and-outer quadrant of the strike zone. Perez is a similarly a mixed bag on defense; he has acrobatic actions and can really turn it around once he’s secured the baseball, but he too often struggles to do that. He has flub-prone hands (which will probably get better) and mediocre range (which likely will not as he ages). This is the sort of second baseman who lacks range but who is great around the bag and basically average overall. I like his chances of getting to power enough that I have a priority grade on Perez (a 40+ FV is like a mid-to-late second round prospect in a typical draft), but I consider his profile to have a good amount of risk and variance. This is not the type of athlete who ends up with defensive versatility, so he’s going to have to keep hitting.

You can see how these guys stack in the White Sox system here.

In addition to Edman, the Dodgers also picked up 17-year-old DSL pitcher Oliver Gonzalez in this trade. He had worked 21.1 innings in a piggyback role before the deal. He’s a very projectable 6-foot-4 or so, and his fastball currently sits 89-93 mph with around 20 inches of induced vertical break and just over 7 feet of extension. His curveball has a nice foundation of depth and shape, but he doesn’t have feel for locating it. It’s a pretty good starting spot for any teenage pitching prospect. Again, the draft is a nice way to gauge the way we should think about Gonzalez, who would probably get about $750,000 to $1 million in bonus money. He has been added toward the bottom of the Dodgers list.


Hitting Prospects Update: Notes on the Top 100 Bats

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

I updated the Top 100 Prospects list late last week; you can find the accompanying piece I wrote, which has a little more detail on the farm system rankings, recent draftees and the trade deadline, here. I also wrote about all the pitchers on the Top 100. This piece goes through the hitters and why they stack the way they do.

Basically every top position player prospect you’ll read about here is an unfinished product. The very top of the list currently lacks a flawless elite prospect; even the most talented players in the minors right now have adjustments to make or blemishes that might become more of an issue against big league pitching. As with the piece on pitchers, you’ll probably want the list open in a separate tab to follow along with my notes; I’ve got that here, with hitters isolated away from the arms. Read the rest of this entry »