A New Way of Looking at Depth: Tables Supplement

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, I laid out a new method of quantifying depth that we’re looking into here at FanGraphs. It’s based on the idea that while our depth charts are a point estimate of how much each player will play, the real-life way things work is different. To mimic reality more closely, we’re experimenting with removing players from the depth charts algorithmically and rebuilding teams on the fly to see how they look without their best players. Yesterday’s article covers our methodology in great detail.

There’s one thing that I wanted to add to that article but couldn’t find the space for: more tables. There was one big giant table in there that showed each team’s winning percentage as we removed more and more players from their squad. But that’s just not a great way to look at anything – 300 numbers in a giant table is more information than our brains can easily process. I don’t have a lot of new information today, but I thought I’d slice that data up into more bite-sized chunks so you can look at it without your eyes glazing over. One quick note: All the tables in this article are sortable, so you can order them by whichever category you so desire.

First, here’s how much each team in baseball would lose in winning percentage in a vacuum if they played the entire season without their best player, along with their winning percentages in both the before and after cases:

Expected Change in Win% From Injury
Team Full Strength -Top Player Change
Braves .598 .567 -.031
Dodgers .573 .556 -.017
Astros .560 .537 -.023
Yankees .549 .530 -.019
Rays .534 .526 -.008
Mariners .528 .508 -.020
Orioles .525 .513 -.012
Phillies .523 .510 -.013
Blue Jays .522 .515 -.007
Twins .521 .510 -.011
Diamondbacks .515 .503 -.012
Cardinals .514 .506 -.008
Rangers .506 .492 -.014
Cubs .501 .500 -.001
Red Sox .501 .488 -.013
Padres .500 .475 -.025
Brewers .497 .490 -.007
Mets .496 .482 -.014
Giants .495 .483 -.012
Marlins .495 .491 -.004
Guardians .493 .476 -.017
Tigers .489 .479 -.010
Reds .488 .485 -.003
Angels .481 .466 -.015
Pirates .477 .470 -.007
Royals .467 .450 -.017
Athletics .443 .437 -.006
White Sox .417 .402 -.015
Nationals .408 .393 -.015
Rockies .394 .387 -.007

Next, here’s the same thing for teams losing their top two, and then top three, players:

Expected Change in Win% From Injury
Team Full Strength -Top 2 Players Change -Top 3 Players Change
Braves .598 .551 -.047 .532 -.066
Dodgers .573 .538 -.035 .525 -.048
Astros .560 .517 -.043 .495 -.065
Yankees .549 .504 -.045 .494 -.055
Rays .534 .518 -.016 .511 -.023
Mariners .528 .497 -.031 .477 -.051
Orioles .525 .503 -.022 .491 -.034
Phillies .523 .493 -.030 .479 -.044
Blue Jays .522 .503 -.019 .487 -.035
Twins .521 .499 -.022 .491 -.030
Diamondbacks .515 .490 -.025 .480 -.035
Cardinals .514 .496 -.018 .491 -.023
Rangers .506 .482 -.024 .478 -.028
Cubs .501 .496 -.005 .490 -.011
Red Sox .501 .473 -.028 .474 -.027
Padres .500 .462 -.038 .450 -.050
Brewers .497 .483 -.014 .473 -.024
Mets .496 .474 -.022 .462 -.034
Giants .495 .490 -.005 .484 -.011
Marlins .495 .485 -.010 .477 -.018
Guardians .493 .469 -.024 .463 -.030
Tigers .489 .476 -.013 .466 -.023
Reds .488 .482 -.006 .477 -.011
Angels .481 .455 -.026 .450 -.031
Pirates .477 .465 -.012 .460 -.017
Royals .467 .441 -.026 .429 -.038
Athletics .443 .436 -.007 .426 -.017
White Sox .417 .392 -.025 .384 -.033
Nationals .408 .386 -.022 .379 -.029
Rockies .394 .383 -.011 .381 -.013

And here’s the same thing for their top four and five players:

Expected Change in Win% From Injury
Team Full Strength -Top 4 Players Change -Top 5 Players Change
Braves .598 .518 -.080 .502 -.096
Dodgers .573 .506 -.067 .500 -.073
Astros .560 .481 -.079 .469 -.091
Yankees .549 .487 -.062 .477 -.072
Rays .534 .502 -.032 .495 -.039
Mariners .528 .465 -.063 .462 -.066
Orioles .525 .484 -.041 .474 -.051
Phillies .523 .458 -.065 .450 -.073
Blue Jays .522 .476 -.046 .472 -.050
Twins .521 .483 -.038 .473 -.048
Diamondbacks .515 .467 -.048 .461 -.054
Cardinals .514 .487 -.027 .482 -.032
Rangers .506 .471 -.035 .459 -.047
Cubs .501 .485 -.016 .478 -.023
Red Sox .501 .468 -.033 .468 -.033
Padres .500 .442 -.058 .436 -.064
Brewers .497 .463 -.034 .459 -.038
Mets .496 .457 -.039 .444 -.052
Giants .495 .481 -.014 .476 -.019
Marlins .495 .468 -.027 .459 -.036
Guardians .493 .457 -.036 .450 -.043
Tigers .489 .458 -.031 .457 -.032
Reds .488 .477 -.011 .474 -.014
Angels .481 .442 -.039 .433 -.048
Pirates .477 .451 -.026 .439 -.038
Royals .467 .424 -.043 .425 -.042
Athletics .443 .424 -.019 .424 -.019
White Sox .417 .375 -.042 .363 -.054
Nationals .408 .374 -.034 .372 -.036
Rockies .394 .377 -.017 .375 -.019

And six and seven:

Expected Change in Win% From Injury
Team Full Strength -Top 6 Players Change -Top 7 Players Change
Braves .598 .485 -.113 .473 -.125
Dodgers .573 .494 -.079 .484 -.089
Astros .560 .463 -.097 .455 -.105
Yankees .549 .471 -.078 .465 -.084
Rays .534 0.49 -.044 .485 -.049
Mariners .528 .452 -.076 .443 -.085
Orioles .525 .469 -.056 .466 -.059
Phillies .523 .446 -.077 .439 -.084
Blue Jays .522 .466 -.056 .463 -.059
Twins .521 .466 -.055 .458 -.063
Diamondbacks .515 .448 -.067 .447 -.068
Cardinals .514 .474 -.040 .476 -.038
Rangers .506 .453 -.053 .449 -.057
Cubs .501 .466 -.035 .467 -.034
Red Sox .501 .463 -.038 .457 -.044
Padres .500 .428 -.072 .424 -.076
Brewers .497 .449 -.048 .451 -.046
Mets .496 .438 -.058 .433 -.063
Giants .495 .473 -.022 .472 -.023
Marlins .495 .448 -.047 .438 -.057
Guardians .493 .439 -.054 .431 -.062
Tigers .489 .458 -.031 .456 -.033
Reds .488 .471 -.017 .466 -.022
Angels .481 .428 -.053 .422 -.059
Pirates .477 .441 -.036 .438 -.039
Royals .467 .425 -.042 .425 -.042
Athletics .443 .421 -.022 .423 -.020
White Sox .417 .358 -.059 .353 -.064
Nationals .408 .367 -.041 .363 -.045
Rockies .394 .374 -.020 .374 -.020

And eight and nine:

Expected Change in Win% From Injury
Team Full Strength -Top 8 Players Change -Top 9 Players Change
Braves .598 .462 -.136 .452 -.146
Dodgers .573 .480 -.093 .462 -.111
Astros .560 .449 -.111 .443 -.117
Yankees .549 .457 -.092 .450 -.099
Rays .534 .488 -.046 .484 -.050
Mariners .528 .440 -.088 .434 -.094
Orioles .525 .460 -.065 .458 -.067
Phillies .523 .424 -.099 .424 -.099
Blue Jays .522 .462 -.060 .450 -.072
Twins .521 .453 -.068 .451 -.070
Diamondbacks .515 .438 -.077 .435 -.080
Cardinals .514 .471 -.043 .472 -.042
Rangers .506 .443 -.063 .437 -.069
Cubs .501 .474 -.027 .466 -.035
Red Sox .501 .461 -.040 .460 -.041
Padres .500 .416 -.084 .410 -.090
Brewers .497 .450 -.047 .450 -.047
Mets .496 .428 -.068 .425 -.071
Giants .495 .469 -.026 .457 -.038
Marlins .495 .430 -.065 .430 -.065
Guardians .493 .419 -.074 .416 -.077
Tigers .489 .454 -.035 .459 -.030
Reds .488 .453 -.035 .451 -.037
Angels .481 .420 -.061 .410 -.071
Pirates .477 .436 -.041 .438 -.039
Royals .467 .426 -.041 .425 -.042
Athletics .443 .419 -.024 .417 -.026
White Sox .417 .357 -.060 .354 -.063
Nationals .408 .360 -.048 .367 -.041
Rockies .394 .374 -.020 .365 -.029

And finally, their top 10 players:

Expected Change in Win% From Injury
Team Full Strength -Top 10 Players Change
Braves .598 .452 -.146
Dodgers .573 .455 -.118
Astros .560 .435 -.125
Yankees .549 .451 -.098
Rays .534 .485 -.049
Mariners .528 .425 -.103
Orioles .525 .453 -.072
Phillies .523 .420 -.103
Blue Jays .522 .452 -.070
Twins .521 .445 -.076
Diamondbacks .515 .434 -.081
Cardinals .514 .472 -.042
Rangers .506 .428 -.078
Cubs .501 .471 -.030
Red Sox .501 .450 -.051
Padres .500 .411 -.089
Brewers .497 .448 -.049
Mets .496 .425 -.071
Giants .495 .452 -.043
Marlins .495 .428 -.067
Guardians .493 .411 -.082
Tigers .489 .456 -.033
Reds .488 .449 -.039
Angels .481 .399 -.082
Pirates .477 .428 -.049
Royals .467 .423 -.044
Athletics .443 .412 -.031
White Sox .417 .360 -.057
Nationals .408 .367 -.041
Rockies .394 .365 -.029

That’s an easier way for me to look at things. Here’s another way: check out how the AL East relative standings change as we remove more players from each team:

AL East Team Strength With Injuries
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yankees .549 .530 .504 .494 .487 .477 .471 .465 .457 .450 .451
Rays .534 .526 .518 .511 .502 .495 .490 .485 .488 .484 .485
Orioles .525 .513 .503 .491 .484 .474 .469 .466 .460 .458 .453
Blue Jays .522 .515 .503 .487 .476 .472 .466 .463 .462 .450 .452
Red Sox .501 .488 .473 .474 .468 .468 .463 .457 .461 .460 .450

And the AL Central:

AL Central Team Strength With Injuries
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Twins .521 .510 .499 .491 .483 .473 .466 .458 .453 .451 .445
Guardians .493 .476 .469 .463 .457 .450 .439 .431 .419 .416 .411
Tigers .489 .479 .476 .466 .458 .457 .458 .456 .454 .459 .456
Royals .467 .450 .441 .429 .424 .425 .425 .425 .426 .425 .423
White Sox .417 .402 .392 .384 .375 .363 .358 .353 .357 .354 .360

And the AL West:

AL West Team Strength With Injuries
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Astros .560 .537 .517 .495 .481 .469 .463 .455 .449 .443 .435
Mariners .528 .508 .497 .477 .465 .462 .452 .443 .440 .434 .425
Rangers .506 .492 .482 .478 .471 .459 .453 .449 .443 .437 .428
Angels .481 .466 .455 .450 .442 .433 .428 .422 .420 .410 .399
Athletics .443 .437 .436 .426 .424 .424 .421 .423 .419 .417 .412

And the NL East:

NL East Team Strength With Injuries
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Braves .598 .567 .551 .532 .518 .502 .485 .473 .462 .452 .452
Phillies .523 .510 .493 .479 .458 .450 .446 .439 .424 .424 .420
Mets .496 .482 .474 .462 .457 .444 .438 .433 .428 .425 .425
Marlins .495 .491 .485 .477 .468 .459 .448 .438 .430 .430 .428
Nationals .408 .393 .386 .379 .374 .372 .367 .363 .360 .367 .367

And the NL Central:

NL Central Team Strength With Injuries
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cardinals .514 .506 .496 .491 .487 .482 .474 .476 .471 .472 .472
Cubs .501 .500 .496 .490 .485 .478 .466 .467 .474 .466 .471
Brewers .497 .490 .483 .473 .463 .459 .449 .451 .450 .450 .448
Reds .488 .485 .482 .477 .477 .474 .471 .466 .453 .451 .449
Pirates .477 .470 .465 .460 .451 .439 .441 .438 .436 .438 .428

And finally, the NL West:

NL West Team Strength With Injuries
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Dodgers .573 .556 .538 .525 .506 .500 .494 .484 .480 .462 .455
Diamondbacks .515 .503 .490 .480 .467 .461 .448 .447 .438 .435 .434
Padres .500 .475 .462 .450 .442 .436 .428 .424 .416 .410 .411
Giants .495 .483 .490 .484 .481 .476 .473 .472 .469 .457 .452
Rockies .394 .387 .383 .381 .377 .375 .374 .374 .374 .365 .365

This presentation of the data helps me to visualize it better. To reiterate from yesterday’s introduction, I’m not saying that this is exactly how injuries work in real life. Teams don’t only lose their best players in sequence, starting with the very best. We haven’t fully decided how we want to handle the likelihood of using each scenario in our playoff odds. We might use parts of several all blended together. It’s still absolutely a work in progress.

With all of those caveats in mind, though, I hope this data is helpful. If you’re wondering what happens to your team, or any number of teams, in some very scary injury scenarios, these tables should help explain our best guess.





Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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HappyFunBallmember
1 month ago

So if every team in the NL East was involved in several massive bus accidents on their way to play my Nationals, we can still say with some certainty that a last place finish is likely.