Prospect Report: Chicago Cubs 2024 Imminent Big Leaguers

Below is an evaluation of the prospects in the Chicago Cubs farm system who readers should consider “imminent big leaguers,” players who might reasonably be expected to play in the majors at some point this year. This includes all prospects on the 40-man roster as well as those who have already established themselves in the upper levels of the minors but aren’t yet rostered. We tend to be more inclusive with pitchers and players at premium defensive positions since their timelines are usually the ones accelerated by injuries and scarcity. Any Top 100 prospects, regardless of their ETA, are also included on this list. Reports, tool grades, and scouting information for all of the prospects below can also be found on The Board.
You may be able to infer that is not a top-to-bottom evaluation of the Cubs farm system. We like to include what’s happening in minor league and extended spring training in our reports as much as possible, since scouting high concentrations of players in Arizona and Florida allows us to incorporate real-time, first-person information into the org lists. However, this approach has led to some situations where outdated analysis (or no analysis at all) was all that existed for players who had already debuted in the majors. Skimming the imminent big leaguers off the top of a farm system in the meantime allows time-sensitive information to make its way onto the site more quickly, better preparing readers for the upcoming season, helping fantasy players as they draft, and building site literature on relevant prospects to facilitate transaction analysis in the event that trades or injuries foist these players into major league roles. There will still be a full Cubs prospect list that includes Fernando Cruz (whose current grade and report you can already access here), Jefferson Rojas (an offseason Pick to Click), Pablo Aliendo and all of the other prospects in the system who aren’t Top 100 guys and also appear to be at least another whole season away. As such, today’s list includes no ordinal rankings. Readers are instead encouraged to focus on the players’ Future Value (FV) grades.
For new readers, let’s revisit what FV means before we offer some specific thoughts on this org (seasoned vets of the site can skip the next couple paragraphs). Future Value (FV) is a subjective valuation metric derived from the traditional 20-80 scouting scale (where 50 is average and each integer of 10 away from 50 represents one standard deviation) that uses WAR production to set the scale. For instance, an average regular (meaning the 15th-best player at a given position, give or take) generally produces about 2 WAR annually, so a 50 FV prospect projects as an everyday player who will generate about that much WAR during each of his pre-free agency big league seasons.
Why not just use projected WAR as the valuation metric then? For one, it creates a false sense of precision. This isn’t a model. While a lot of data goes into our decision-making process, a lot of subjectivity does too, in the form of our own visual evaluations, as well as other information related to the players’ careers and baseball backgrounds. A player can have a strong evaluation (emphasis on the “e”) but might be a great distance from the big leagues, or perhaps is injury prone or a superlative athlete. Context like that might cause us to augment the player’s valuation (no “e”). Using something more subjective like Future Value allows us to dial up and down how we’re interpreting that context.
There are also many valuable part-time players who can only generate so much WAR due to their lack of playing time. As such, FV grades below 50 tend to describe a role more than they do a particular WAR output; you can glean the projected roles from the players’ reports. In short, anyone with a 40+ FV grade or above projects as an integral big league role player or better.
Now some Cubs thoughts. Are the Cubs back? It’s been a little over three years since they non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and approaching that long since they traded Anthony Rizzo. During that time, the org’s ability to develop velocity has improved, they’ve seemingly nailed some draft picks, gotten good individual pieces back as part of a number of trades, built one of the best couple of farm systems in baseball, and now are projected for the second-most wins in a wide open NL Central that seems like it’s there for the taking as of our spring audit of this group. It’s been a fairly swift rebuild in part because the team signed Jameson Taillon and Seiya Suzuki, and hit on a few on-the-margin pickups in Mike Tauchman and a brief buy-low on Cody Bellinger, which put veteran guys in place amid all these prospects.
If you recall, the club’s last window of contention was shortened by the Epstein regime’s inability to draft and developing pitching fast enough to buttress the Cubs’ core group of position players. They’ve got more present and projected depth now than they did at that time, though many of the optionable starters in the upper levels of the org (Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Michael Arias, Porter Hodge, etc.) have some amount of relief risk, or have demonstrated success out of the bullpen but not as much out of the rotation. Chicago’s postseason hopes might ride on this group polishing their command enough to bandage any rotation injuries that arise throughout the season. This system is also deep enough for the North Siders to make a substantial trade.
Some key things we’ll be working on between now and the full Cubs list include (hopefully) getting a look at big-bonus shortstop Fernando Cruz in Mesa this spring, sifting through the older pitching from last year’s DSL group during minor league and extended spring training, and watching how teenage infielder Jefferson Rojas responds to promotion.
Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cade Horton | 22.6 | AA | SP | 2025 | 55 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 22.0 | MLB | CF | 2024 | 55 |
Matt Shaw | 22.4 | AA | 2B | 2025 | 55 |
Kevin Alcántara | 21.7 | AA | CF | 2024 | 50 |
Jordan Wicks | 24.5 | MLB | SP | 2024 | 50 |
Owen Caissie | 21.7 | AA | RF | 2025 | 50 |
Michael Busch | 26.3 | MLB | DH | 2024 | 50 |
Michael Arias | 22.3 | A+ | SP | 2025 | 45+ |
Ben Brown | 24.5 | AAA | SP | 2024 | 45+ |
James Triantos | 21.1 | AA | LF | 2026 | 45 |
Haydn McGeary | 24.4 | AA | 1B | 2025 | 40+ |
Luke Little | 23.5 | MLB | SIRP | 2024 | 40+ |
Caleb Kilian | 26.8 | MLB | MIRP | 2024 | 40+ |
Alexander Canario | 23.8 | MLB | RF | 2024 | 40 |
Kohl Franklin | 24.5 | AA | MIRP | 2024 | 40 |
Zac Leigh | 26.3 | AA | SIRP | 2025 | 40 |
Brennen Davis | 24.4 | AAA | RF | 2024 | 35+ |
Riley Martin | 26.0 | AAA | SIRP | 2025 | 35+ |
Eduarniel Nunez | 24.8 | AA | SIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
Matt Mervis | 25.9 | MLB | 1B | 2024 | 35+ |
Luis Vazquez | 24.4 | AAA | SS | 2024 | 35+ |
Riley Thompson | 27.7 | AAA | MIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
Cam Sanders | 27.3 | AAA | SIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
Ben Leeper | 26.7 | AAA | SIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
Porter Hodge | 23.1 | AA | SIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
To me PCA would be a prime sell high candidate. A LHH Jose Siri type. the speed is only worth so much when you don’t get on base or even put the ball in play.
Beyond the fact that Jose Siri had a worse K/BB in A-ball at age 21 than PCA did in the high minors…Siri’s been worth 4.6 WAR in 689 PA, over the last two seasons!
My baseline expectation is JBJ, who was a damn useful player in Boston.
I’m holding a bit of hope he’s in the Devon White/Steve Finley/Andy Van Slyke mold.
I personally like the Mike Cameron comps
Cameron is probably the best possible scenario for him. I don’t think it’s likely. Cameron put up something like 50 fWAR and had multiple 5 win seasons.
But it would be pretty cool if it happened!
Agreed. Andy Van Slyke was a damn good player as well. I don’t think PCA will every hit quite that well
Jose Siri looked like Keon Broxton when he was in the minors. He struck out a ridiculous amount. I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop on Siri and for him to wash out of the league.
Crow-Armstrong played last year in the Southern League, which experimented with a pre-tacked ball that made strikeout numbers uninterpretable. I think if you’re looking at comps, Jackie Bradley Jr, Daulton Varsho, and Trent Grisham all fit.
I’m not expecting much at the plate with PCA. The takes a couple weeks ago on Bellinger blocking him made me chuckle. Sure, absolutely, he’s a legit exciting high ceiling prospect … who has enough holes in his offense that he would more likely than not tank hard if pushed into regular mlb service. Not what a potential playoff team wants to be running out there. Wouldn’t have been end of the world to give him the job but I’m thrilled to give him seasoning at Iowa with the requisite injury replacement call ups until he starts to click.
I can see the rationale for selling high but I’d prefer the Cubs keep him and hope they get the upside version of him. Not sure what you’d sell him for that helps the organization – would want controlled mlb-ready pitching that beats what is on the current roster – not sure he gets us that without giving away a lot more.