Picks to Click: Who We Expect to Make the 2025 Top 100


It’s common for our readers to ask which of the players who aren’t on this year’s Top 100 might grace next year’s edition. Who has a chance to really break out? This is the piece for those readers, our “Picks to Click,” the gut-feel guys we think can make the 2025 Top 100.

This is the seventh year we’ve conducted this exercise at FanGraphs, and there are some rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been graded as a 50 FV or better prospect in any of our write-ups or rankings. Second, we can’t pick players who we’ve picked in prior years, but the other writers can. For instance, Eric picked Cristhian Vaquero last year, but he didn’t make the Top 100. Eric can’t select him again, but Tess could if she wanted (she didn’t).

A few years ago, we decided to make this somewhat competitive to see which of us ends up being right about the most players. Below is a brief rundown of how the site’s writers have done since this piece became a part of Prospect Week; you can click the year in the “Year” column to access that year’s list. Our initials began appearing next to our picks in 2021. In the event that multiple writers picked the same prospect, we have that number in parentheses between the individual amounts, kind of like a Venn Diagram. We don’t count “click echoes” toward our totals, guys who enter the 50 FV tier multiple years after they were Picks to Click. However, we do count “click meteors,” players who pass through the Top 100 during the season but then graduate, like Michael Harris II a couple of years ago and like Bryan Woo almost did last year. Here’s how we’ve fared in the past:

Historical Picks to Click Results
Year Writer(s) Picks to Click Hits Click Rate
2018 Longenhagen/McDaniel 62 15 24%
2019 Longenhagen/McDaniel 55 16 29%
2020 Longenhagen 46 14 30%
2021 Goldstein/Longenhagen 18(6)23 5(3)4 26%
2022 Longenhagen/Goldstein/Taruskin 18(2)11(2)13 6(2)2(1)5 35%
2023 Longenhagen/Taruskin 23/14 6/5 30%
2024 Longenhagen/Taruskin 30(2)13 TBD TBD

We’ve separated the players into groups or “types” to make the list a little more digestible and to give you some idea of the demographics we think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own using The Board. For players whose orgs we have already covered this offseason, there is a link to the applicable team list where you can find a full scouting report on that player.

Well-Rounded Up-the-Middle Guys
Angel Genao, SS, Cleveland Guardians (EL)
Jefferson Rojas, SS, Chicago Cubs (TT)
Bryan Rincon, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (TT) – Full Report
George Lombard Jr., SS, New York Yankees (EL/TT) – Full Report
Marvin Alcantara, SS, Boston Red Sox (EL)
Luis Lara, CF, Milwaukee Brewers (EL)
Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, Baltimore Orioles (EL)
Nelson Rada, CF, Los Angeles Angels (EL)

Genao signed for a little over a million bucks a couple of years ago. He’s a skilled, switch-hitting contact bat who will turn 20 in May and is still growing into his body. Rojas has more of a power-driven profile with average contact. His physicality might eventually move him to either second or third base. Alcantara is a wonderful rotational athlete with above-average bat-to-ball skills and defensive qualities. Having him on here means betting big on him getting stronger during the next year. The rest of the group — Lara, Bradfield, Rada — are contact-oriented speedsters who will also play plus defense.

Black Box Arms (All EL)
Adam Maier, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Alex Clemmey, LHP, Cleveland Guardians
Ty Floyd, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Alonzo Tredwell, RHP, Houston Astros
Jackson Baumeister, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Steven Echavarria, RHP, Oakland Athletics

These are all pitchers from the last couple of drafts who haven’t yet thrown at an affiliate. A few of them threw during instructs. This piece is more “predicting” than “scouting,” and basically every pitcher I’ve chosen here comes from an org that has demonstrated that it’s capable of teasing good things out of its pitching. The college contingent here is probably more likely to hit by virtue of its proximity to the big leagues in 12 months. Maier was arguably a top 50 draft prospect before he blew out in March of 2022. He had his UCL repaired with an internal brace rather than have Tommy John; he did not pitch last year. Healthy Maier would sit 92-94 and peak in the 95-97 mph range depending on the outing, and his slider has near elite spin. Clemmey, who is built like an NBA wing player, was a 2023 high school draftee with a big fastball/curveball combo. Floyd’s stuff climbed throughout the 2023 college season and was nastiest during LSU’s postseason run. He has a carrying mid-90s fastball and a hard slider, and should develop a good changeup because of his whippy arm action. Tredwell (UCLA) and Baumesiter (Florida State) were second round picks with vertically oriented fastball/breaking ball combos. Neither developed exceptional velocity in college, but they could break out if they do so as pros. Echavarria is a $3 million high school signee who has some fastball playability issues, but he throws hard and his talent for spinning a breaking ball is very special.

Eduardo Tait, C, Philadelphia Phillies (TT) – Full Report
Blake Mitchell, C, Kansas City Royals (TT)
Agustin Ramirez, C, New York Yankees (EL) – Full Report
Josue Briceno, C, Detroit Tigers (EL) – Full Report
Ralphy Velazquez, C, Cleveland Guardians (EL)

As always, the big league inventory is such that even catchers with pretty serious offensive flaws tend to play a lot. Both Mitchell and Velazquez were 2023 first round picks straight from high school, bat-first catchers with rare lefty power who need to develop on defense. Mitchell was drafted out of a Texas high school, and he’s been a prospect of repute since he was an underclassman, at times as both a pitcher and a catcher. His ball-blocking is what needs the most improvement. Velazquez went to Huntington Beach (Nick Pratto, Hans Crouse) and his defense also needs a ton of work. He was less athletic looking than Mitchell as an amateur, but he’s an athletic mover, and his strength and mobility combo gives him a shot to develop back there.

This Is What They Look Like
Dillon Head, CF, San Diego Padres (EL)
Robby Snelling, LHP, San Diego Padres (TT)
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (TT) – Full Report
Tai Peete, 3B, Seattle Mariners (EL)
Aidan Miller, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies (EL) – Full Report
Jansel Luis, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks (EL)
Brock Porter, RHP, Texas Rangers (TT)

We whiffed completely on this category last year, which is odd considering it’s usually one of our more productive. This demo is for the big-framed, toolsy youngsters with big ceilings. Padres 2023 first rounder Dillon Head is a table-setting leadoff type with sneaky pull power. He performed very well from a contact standpoint in 2023, and remember that the kid was coming from a cold weather location; it’s amazing he’s hit the ground running. Snelling is a tough-nosed lefty with mid-90s heat and two pretty good breaking balls. He might develop better secondary stuff as he gets further from football, which he played seriously in high school. Peete and Nimmala are huge-framed power projection prodigies from the 2023 high school class; both have swing-and-miss risk. Luis is the most likely to play a premium position of this group. He’s a switch-hitting shortstop with incredible hand speed and issues with chase. Porter was a prominent 2022 high school draftee who signed for $3.7 million. He’s still quite wild, but he sat 92-95 across 70 or so innings last year, has a plus changeup with huge velo separation from his fastball, and his slider has developed plus break. He still needs to refine his control, which isn’t a given considering Porter’s relatively violent delivery, but his stuff and limber frame are the building blocks of an impact starter.

Gino Groover, 3B, Arizona Diamdondbacks (EL)
Brice Matthews, SS, Houston Astros (EL)
Denzel Clarke, OF, Oakland Athletics (TT)
Thomas Saggese, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (TT)
Brayden Taylor, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays (EL/TT)

Groover was among the 2023 draft’s more volatile and exciting prospects. A transfer from UNC Wilmington, he raked for two years at NC State but was a mistake-prone third base defender. He has rare hand speed and demonstrated plus rates of contact at NC State and then in 100 PAs at High-A Hillsboro after the draft, where he struck out just 9% of the time. He might be a swing tweak away from a huge offensive breakout; he also may not have a position. Like Groover, Matthews was a divisive 2023 college prospect (Nebraska). He’s incredibly athletic and toolsy, has amazing bat speed, and makes the occasionally impossible defensive play, but he’s also super raw in basically every facet of baseball. His special physical gifts give him a sizable ceiling. That has also rung true for Denzel Clarke since entering pro ball. The 6-foot-5, power-hitting outfielder has struck out roughly 30% of the time, but he’s hit for enough power to be a plus offensive player at each of his minor league stops. Acquired for Jordan Montgomery, Saggese is an undersized over-achiever whose bat-to-ball skills and aggressive approach combined for an electric 2023 season, earning him MVP honors in the Texas League. Taylor had a Jekyll and Hyde junior 2023 spring and got off to a very slow start before he got white hot and ended up hitting a career-high 23 homers at TCU. Teams were spooked enough by his strikeout issues that he fell to the Rays at 19th overall, later than is typical for someone who performed like Taylor did in college.

Irresponsibly Early
Adam Serwinowski, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (EL)
Eduardo Quintero, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (EL)
Rayner Arias, OF, San Francisco Giants (EL)
Robert Calaz, OF, Colorado Rockies (EL)

A 2022 15th rounder out of a South Carolina High School, Serwinowski had a 2023 velo spike and sat 94-97 with plus carry across just about 30 innings. He’s a spindly 6-foot-5 and is still just 19. He might throw harder and has talent for spinning a breaking ball. Quintero is a converted catcher who looked good playing center field in the 2023 DSL. He’s a bat control maven with medium physical tools right now. Arias looked fantastic in the U.S. during minor league spring training and in a brief DSL sample, but he sprained his wrist and missed a lot of 2023. Calaz was one of several Rockies DSL hitters considered for this list. He’s a power-hitting outfielder likely to play in a corner with some of the better DSL exit velo data from last season.

Power Bats
William Sullivan, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals (TT)
Haydn McGeary, 1B, Chicago Cubs (TT)
Brock Wilken, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers (TT)

Sullivan mashed 2023 A-ball as an old-for-the-level prospect. The slugger from Troy has plus lefty bat speed and some of the best 2023 Trackman data in the minors when you compare both power and contact. McGeary also had some of the best 2023 Trackman data in all of pro baseball. Before we declare either of these guys to be the next Paul Goldschmidt, let’s see them handle upper-level velo. Wilken has plus-plus present raw power and hit several balls harder than 115 mph during his career at Wake, power he generates with a comically simple swing. He’ll need to work to stay as agile and mobile as possible to avoid a shift to first base.

Seven-Pack of Pitching
Aidan Curry, RHP, Texas Rangers (EL)
Owen Murphy, RHP, Atlanta Braves (EL)
Peyton Pallette, RHP, Chicago White Sox (TT) – Full Report
Michael Arias, RHP, Chicago Cubs (EL)
Wilkelman Gonzalez, RHP, Boston Red Sox (EL)
Justin Wrobleski, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (EL)
Troy Melton, RHP, Detroit Tigers (EL) – Full Report

The 21-year-old Curry is a 2020 undrafted free agent out of a New York high school who has developed a bunch of average pitches and starter-worthy command. He’s a broad-shouldered 6-foot-5 and could still add more velo as he enters his mid-20s. He’s on pace to be added to the 40-man roster after the season. Murphy was a two-way high schooler who signed for $2.5 million in 2022. He has precocious command and would be considered a low-variance no. 4 starter if he could hold the 91-95 mph range he’s shown in spurts. Arias is a converted shortstop who moved to the mound around the time he signed with the Cubs. He’s walk-prone but has two impact pitches in his mid-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup. These two pitches alone should enable him to be a very good reliever at least. If he can refine his command and slider, he’s going to be a mid-rotation starter. Gonzalez is capable of missing bats with three pitches, he’s still only going to be 22 years old for all of the 2024 season, and he’s now held mid-90s velocity under something approaching an actual starter’s workload. He scatters 94-96 mph fastballs all over the place and bends in a one of the better curveballs in the minors, which is one of Gonzalez’s two good breaking balls. Even his changeup generated plus miss rates in 2023, giving him three offerings that comfortably check that box. Wrobleski had TJ close to the 2021 draft and didn’t get on an affiliate’s mound until the very end of 2022, when he was sitting 93-95 mph for three innings at a time, up above his usual pre-TJ 88-91 mph range. He more or less held that velo spike all throughout 2023 and actually ended the year with several starts of velo increase, at times averaging 95 mph. Wrobo essentially has five pitches because of his ability to alter the shape and velocity of his fastball, and he’s funneled breaking usage away from his curveball and toward a slider/cutter combo that he commands very well. Can he sustain this more recent velo spike like he did the first one? The arrow has been pointing up slowly but steadily since Wrobleski returned from surgery. Even if he sits 92-93 and reaches back for more on occasion, he might be a year away from the Top 100 by virtue of his command and repertoire depth.

League Source Picks
For the first time this year, we’re including industry Picks to Click, players who some of our sources in baseball think are going to have breakout 2024 seasons. We asked a bunch of pro scouts, player personnel directors, player dev folks, in-office analysts, and even some GMs for a couple of names. We have them all dumped in a pile below, re-arranged to protect peoples’ anonymity.

Byron Chourio, CF, Minnesota Twins
Luis Serna, RHP, New York Yankees
Henry Lalane, LHP, New York Yankees
Rayner Arias, OF, San Francisco Giants
Filippo Di Turi, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP, Boson Red Sox
Ronan Kopp, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoeilin Cespedes, INF, Boston Red Sox
Cristhian Vaquero, OF, Washington Nationals
Dillon Head, CF, San Diego Padres
Raudelis Martinez, C, Tampa Bay Rays
Alexander Albertus, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Carlos Lagrange, RHP, New York Yankees
Luis R. Rodriguez, LHP, New York Mets
George Wolkow, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Paulino Santana, OF, Texas Rangers
Johanfran Garcia, C, Boston Red Sox
Ignacio Alvarez, 3B, Atlanta Braves
Adam Serwinowski, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Thomas Harrington, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates,
Esmerlyn Valdez, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Alex Clemmey, LHP, Cleveland Guardians
Drew Gray, LHP Chicago Cubs
C.J. Culpepper, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Yordanny Monegro, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Brock Porter, RHP, Texas Rangers
Jose Urbina, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Michael Arias, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Jackson Baumeister, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Felnin Celesten, SS, Seattle Mariners
Alessandro Ercolani, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Steven Echevarria, RHP, Oakland Athletics

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Cool Lester Smoothmember
3 months ago

That 2023 Yankees Complex League team showing out on this list, haha!

Real shame Luhnow and Manfred helped the owners gut the lower minors with a machete – so many of these kids should be playing competitive games in front of fans in the Appy, Pioneer, Northwest and NYPenn leagues, rather than being kept overseas or in instructs.

Cool Lester Smoothmember
3 months ago

Also: Awesome stuff as always, guys!

This is one of my favorite articles every year.