Picks to Click: Who I Expect to Make the 2021 Top 100
When publishing prospect lists — in particular, the top 100 — I am frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s version. Whose stock am I buying? This post represents my best attempt to answer all of those questions at once.
This is the third year of this exercise, and last year Kiley and I instituted some rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been a 50 FV or better in any of our write-ups or rankings. So while I think Corbin Martin will return from Tommy John and become a 50 FV again later next year, I’m not allowed to include him here (although I just sorta did). The second rule is that I am forbidden from using players who have ever been on this list before, which means no Gilberto Celestino (on the list two years ago) or Lenny Torres (who was on last year’s) even though they might soon be 50s. McDaniel and I were right about 18 of the 63 players we picked the first year, about a 29% hit rate, and we were right about 16 of the 55 players on last year’s list, which is also 29%. Two years still isn’t long enough to know whether that’s good or not, but it does appear as though a baseline is being established.
At the end of the piece, I have a list of potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year, because readers seem to dig that category. These are not part of the 50+ FV forecasting; it’s just a way to point an arrow at guys I like who might have real big league impact in a smaller role very soon.
I’ve separated the players into groups or “types” to make the list a little more digestible and to give you some idea of the demographics I think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own with The Board (with The Board, through The Board, in The Board). For players whose orgs I’ve already covered this offseason, there is a link to the applicable team list where you can find a full scouting report on that player. I touch briefly on the rest of the names in this post. If you want to peek at the previous lists, here is Year 1, and here is Year 2.
Teenage Pitchers
Blake Walston, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (full report)
Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Matthew Allan, RHP, New York Mets (full report)
Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Texas Rangers
William Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Jairo Solis, RHP, Houston Astros (full report)
You probably know about Espino, who has been famous since his heater was touching 99 when he was a high school underclassman. He was brought along slowly last year; he didn’t get underway until July and only threw a couple innings at a time until mid-August, when the Indians gave him about 70 pitches worth of leash. He was 97-97, touching 98, and both breaking balls are plus. The arm action is long, but I’m way in on the stuff. Henriquez has one of the fastest arms in the minors. He’s only 5-foot-10 but sits in the mid-90s and his split is good. I’m confident he’ll locate the slurve well enough that it, too, is effective. Holmes is a two-way prospect whose light seemed to be switching on late in the year. He’ll touch 96 and show you an above-average change and breaking ball.
Vertical Movement on the Fastball
Joey Wentz, LHP, Detroit Tigers (full report)
Joey Cantillo, LHP, San Diego Padres
Michael Baumann, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (full report)
Angel Macuare, RHP, Houston Astros (full report)
Austin Cox, LHP, Kansas City Royals
This concept is explained further in this piece, which also features a report on Cantillo. Cox has a low-90s fastball, an above-average curveball, and an average changeup. He has better control, especially to his glove side, than a lot of funky, vertical slot guys.
Players My Sources Like
Braden Shewmake, SS, Atlanta Braves (full report)
Adam Hall, SS, Baltimore Orioles (full report)
Taylor Walls, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros (full report)
Ji-Hwan Bae, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jake Cronenworth, SS, San Diego Padres
Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins (full report)
Walls has terrific control of the strike zone. Not only does he lay off pitches out of the zone but he rarely swings and misses at pitches in the zone, and he’s going to play up the middle. Bae is fairly similar. He doesn’t have power right now but he’s very, very fast. Cronenworth might be the best 26th man in baseball. He can play all over the place, he can pitch, he has average power, and he’s also tough to beat in the zone.
Strike-Throwing No. 4 Types
George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Thad Ward, RHP, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Cody Bolton, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Daulton Jefferies, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Zack Thompson, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Kirby is a high-ratio strike thrower who is now in an org that is suddenly very good at developing pitchers. Bolton has a really nasty slider and a sinker that touches 97. He threw nearly 60% of his fastballs in the zone last year. Jefferies has an impact changeup and plus command, he’s just never been healthy for very long. Thompson’s fastball lacks spin but his changeup and breaking stuff are great, and the Cardinals push college arms to the upper levels quickly, so he might see Double-A next year.
Dudes with Big Juice
Luis Toribio, 3B, San Francisco Giants (full report)
Andy Pages, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Peyton Burdick, RF, Miami Marlins (full report)
Canaan Smith, LF, New York Yankees
Jerar Encarnacion, RF, Miami Marlins (full report)
Michael Busch, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
These are players with big raw power. It’s unclear whether Pages will be traded to the Angels or not, but his report is here. Smith runs deep counts and he can run, too. If he lifts the ball more often he’ll really break out. Some teams considered Busch in the top 10 of last year’s draft (at a discount) and a lot of his placement here depends on his ability to play a passable, shift-aided second base, which he was not doing in the Arizona Fall League.
What They Look Like
Luis Matos, CF, San Francisco Giants (full report)
Junior Sanquintin, SS, Cleveland Indians
Reggie Preciado, SS, San Diego Padres
Robert Puason, SS, Oakland Athletics
Greg Jones, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Maikol Escotto, SS, New York Yankees
Ryder Green, OF, New York Yankees
Erick Peña, CF, Kansas City Royals
Alexander Ramirez, RF, Los Angeles Angels
This is the group purely for tools and body-based scouting. Sanquintin, Preciado, and Puason are all switch-hitting shortstops with big frames, the same as Ronny Mauricio was at the same age. Greg Jones is the oldest player on this list but also the fastest. Escotto, Green, and Peña are all more mature. Escotto and Green are more physical with present power, and Peña might be the most polished player from his July 2 class. Ramirez has a huge, projectable frame and already has considerable power.
Catchers
Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets (full report)
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays
Mario Feliciano, Milwaukee Brewers
Diego Cartaya, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins (full report)
Gabriel Moreno, Toronto Blue Jays
Rafael Marchan, Philadelphia Phillies
I didn’t feel comfortable sticking Alvarez on the 100 just yet. He’d have been several more levels away from the bigs than anyone else on the list, and the rate of teenage catcher attrition is really scary. I thought pricing in the risk properly meant keeping him off. Kirk, Raleigh, and Jeffers are all bigger guys who don’t always cut the defensive mustard for scouts, though some of them have good framing metrics (Jeffers, Raleigh). Feliciano has the best current contact quality of this group but strikes out a lot. Cartaya has the biggest ceiling here. He’s built like Salvador Perez, which scares some scouts because it’s hard to stay behind the plate at that size, but if he can, the game management and arm strength might make him an impact defender. That’s pretty extreme variance. Moreno and Marchan are athletic, contact-oriented hitters.
High-Leverage Relievers
Enoli Paredes, RHP, Houston Astros (full report)
Cristian Javier, RHP, Houston Astros (full report)
Bryan Mata, RHP, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Junior Fernandez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Hector Yan, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Peter Fairbanks, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Alex Vesia, LHP, Miami Marlins (full report)
Ashton Goudeau, RHP, Colorado Rockies (full report)
Yan is a lefty version of Freddy Peralta. He creates tough angle on hitters and lives off his fastball. Fairbanks’ stuff is a lot like Nick Anderson’s, but his control has made him tougher to roster.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
So in Taylor Walls the Rays have a switch-hitting shortstop from a strong DIv I school who has an elite batting eye and a high floor on all aspects of his game.
With Adames and soon Franco blocking his way at SS, maybe he’ll end up becoming a plus defender shuttling between 2B and RF once he reaches the majors…..
Add in Greg Jones and Xavier Edwards, the Rays look like a SS factory. Padres with Cronenworth and Preciado also a blooming garden of SS’s.
Edwards is not a shortstop.
And Cronenworth is a 26-year-old drafted out of college back in 2015, who’s yet to take an MLB at-bat. Maybe I’m just being mean, but his breakout 2019 season looks like a probable juiceball fluke to my eyes. We’ll see.
Or to put it another way, 12 months ago Cronenworth was (according to Kilic McLongendaniel) not even worthy of a dismal 35+ prospect ranking. He wasn’t even mentioned among the numerous “others of note” for Tampa, and now he “might be the best 26th man in baseball”? It’s a bit hard to believe that anyone could’ve been THAT far off in their previous estimation of his talent.
Don’t forget to account for the pro-Rays bias, so that means he wasn’t a 30. I am going to go ahead and say that providing very low level RP innings, below average defense and mediocre pinch hitting is not actually valuable… unless the goal is actually to have a 20 man roster.
He played 65 games there the last two seasons. He’s playing more 2B now, but it’s not wrong to call him a SS. Good chance he ends up in a utility role with Tampa.
Why would you want a guy playing SS that isn’t great at it?
lol the negative vote on that. I don’t think anyone is really entertaining him as a SS
Yeah, I’d expect to see Walls in 2021 as soon as he hits whatever service-time-manipulation milestone that Rays have targeted, since he’ll be on the 40 man at that point. Probably splitting time with Brandon Lowe at 2B, and then sliding over somewhere else to take over for a right-handed player somewhere else (Adames, Arozarena). That is, unless Franco and Brujan–both switch hitters–hit the majors around the same time or earlier and perform, in which case who knows what’s going to happen.
That’s before we get to Lucius Fox (another switch hitter), and Greg Jones ans Xavier Edwards (two guys who are both switch hitters and whose positions are nominally in the middle infield, but whose ultimate homes are unclear and might play multiple positions), and Tyler Frank (another possible righty 2nd baseman). I’d say that Jones and Edwards could be fits in center field, but Josh Lowe is also hanging out there too, so probably we’re looking at another platoon situation. I don’t know exactly what the future holds here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Margot and/or Kiermaier gone and one of these guys moved to CF full time.
Some of these guys will bust, but this is the first time in a while where it looks like prospects are blocking other prospects who are being blocked by major leaguers. It’s an embarrassment of riches in the middle infield.
By the time those guys are ready to contribute in Tampa the team will be running a positionless, NBA style defense with hyper shifting, 2 OF looks, where five or six fielders are essentially SS capable who roam the field. Gonna be great!
The Dodgers should show you that above average talent being blocked is in practice nearly impossible
Walls plays great defense which can only help him. I can’t think of any tools that he has which are below average except power, and even that could end up average.
Ethan Small
He’s going to carve up the minors. I don’t know how he’s going to play in the majors, but he’s pretty advanced and I suspect minor league batters won’t know how to handle him.
Yeah that was a name I was surprised to not see here. Perhaps his lack of FB velocity is seen as limiting his ceiling making him a player with a very high floor but a low ceiling, making him a very low variance but not very high FV grade?
Jackson Rutledge is going to fly up the list this year. Granted, it was very limited time, Rutledge already dispelled the two biggest concerns against him: health and command. Having a healthy 2019 and keeping his walks at a very respectable 3.61 BB/9 alone seems enough to put him into consideration for top 100. But a 2020 in full-season ball will just see him skyrocket onto and up the list like Nate Pearson (a comparison Eric/Kiley made, not me).
Just from a strategy perspective, I’m not sure guys like Cronenworth are good picks here, since there’s a decent chance they’ll be out of rookie eligibility by this time next year. If you pick a guy already on the 40-man and who had 400 PAs at AAA last year, there’s almost no chance he has rookie eligibility unless he suffers a severe injury or struggles, in which case he probably wouldn’t move up.
Guys like Shewmake, Walls, George Kirby, Daulton Jefferies, Zack Thompson, Braxton Garrett, and Adam Hall are the “traditional” picks–guys who, as long as they perform like they have at another level up and the tools don’t back up, are probably on it next year. I’d bet on them too. I actually think Jefferies has a shot to be something special in the big leagues, if he can just stay healthy (big if).
I’m more fascinated by the “dark horse” picks…the “Dudes with Big Juice”, “Vertical Movement with the Fastball,” and “Teenage Pitchers.” Of those guys, I think I like Walston, Cantillo, Burdick, and Canaan Smith the most. Walston looks awesome already and if he’s as projectable as people say, he’s got a chance to be a front line arm. Love the other three two, although they’re a bit of longer shots.
There’s a decent chance that Cronenworth retains his rookie eligibility through the 2020 season. The Padres have lefty infielder Greg Garcia as well as switch-hitters Jurickson Profar and Breyvic Valera in camp fighting for 2B/UT roles, and Ty France’s bat might make the roster as well. Cronenworth might spend the season working on pitching and versatility in El Paso behind that depth at the MLB level. He’s not much of a “dark horse” but if he shows another season like last year at the plate combined with some expanded defensive versatility and the added value of a legit pitching skill, I could see him making the back half of a Top 100 list this time next year.
There is definitely a point where throwing too many strikes ends up hurting pitchers which is something I worry about with Kirby going into this first full year. Last year with no scouting reports he dominated low-A hitters with good stuff and command/control. This year I would love to see him throw a few less strikes and be fine with more walks (which is saying almost literally nothing). It doesn’t seem like his stuff is so incredible that he can just live in the strike zone and no one will be able to hit him.
“Smith runs deep counts and he can run, too.” Is his speed grade higher than the 40 that’s listed on his page now?
Eric never said anything about how well he could run, just that he is physically able to.
Haha touche.
As a trombone, I cannot run. It’s very embarrassing, but since there were a few tubas in my HS gym classes at least I was never last.
Always love these right after the top 100. I personally think that by midseason next year the Pirates will have Quinn Priester (who didn’t have a pitching coach before!) and now Brennan Malone who can easily justify being on the ‘teenage pitchers’.
But is Pirates pitching coach better than no coach?
Surprised that there’s been no mention of Ethan Hankins. Lots of other rankings have him as the Indians 3rd best prospect. He clearly has talent and he’s with an organization that has a great track record for developing pitchers. He did have a few control issues last year but nothing serious. And he also showed how dominant he can be, striking out 11.8 batters per 9 innings in A ball as a 19 year old. Obviously Eric isn’t as high on him as others though I’m not sure why.
FG have been the low guys on Hankins (40+ FV) going into the draft and they’re going to stick to it. I believe there’s a heavy dose of draft prospect fatigue involved.
Ranking guys like Hentges over him doesn’t make much sense to me. Even the best prospect site (by far) gets some wrong and he wouldn’t be the first Indians pitcher they’ve undervalued.
The Dodgers and catchers man
I wonder what happened to Bo Naylor. This is what Eric said in yesterday’s chat:
“Naylor was on the big early list and an early cut, but he’ll be on the picks to click tomorrow along with all the other catchers I like.”
What changed in the past 24 hours?
Yeah, wondered about that too. Maybe industry feedback on Bo wasn’t hot?
I also fully expected E. Clase in the reliever bucket or is he considered graduated?
If he hasn’t graduated yet he definitely will be by next year so including him here wouldn’t make sense
This list seems to be all 40+ and 45 types, the 45+ that are already close are absent for the most part. A deeper dive if you will.
Luis Matos is a 45+ But I don’t know. Eric’s got a lot on his plate now. So I’m cutting him some slack.
Well Naylor’s page shows his as a 45+ (though that may have been midsesason last year). Anyway, for me the confusion comes from Eric saying he would be on the list today and then he wasn’t.
Long time listener, first time caller. Did you give any thought to putting Jose de la Cruz on this list? Same age as Matos with Impressive numbers (albeit not as impressive as Matos) and seemed to get better as the year went on. Thanks for your time!
Noelvi Marte is sadly missing as well. He has some major potential position issues (I think he had over 30 errors at SS last year in a short season) but figured the bat would get him in the Picks to Click.
Always one of my favorite articles, thanks Eric!
just FYI, Noelvi played in the DSL last year, not stateside, who knows about field quality?
I know he was in DSL, but are the fields that lousy that it would cause that many errors? Either way, his bat is a hot commodity amongst prospect communities, seemed like a no brainer Picks to Click. Wide range of outcomes though for someone so young, I’ll trust Eric’s judgement here.
He was what, 16? Yes, its probably not a positive thing but who cares? You might be wise to venture past one person’s estimation.
Noelvi was a 40+ in the 2019 end of season list, FWIW. Not bad for a guy who isn’t even playing ball in the US.
Remember that FV discounted based on distance from MLB. Being a 40+ without having played in the US is pretty uncommon. But being a 50+ would be like Franco-level talent.
Remember that none of those numbers have any bearing on anything ever. They could just as well be generated by an RNG.
I’ll take the bat over 30 errors myself.
Yo Eric, don’t snooze on Blake Hunt. He’s going to make some noise in Lake Elsinore. More polished defender than Campusano with a hit tool that’s catching up.
unfortunate name…
Hunter Bishop? Higher on some lists but did not make the 2020 as FV 45+…raw power and speed but the hit tool too questionable?
As a Rangers fan, prospect week as been pretty rough thus far. Best player on the top 100 checks in at 97, only 3 guys overall (and one, Solak, barely comes in under the rookie limits). Came here hoping for some positive signs, only to find one TINSTAAPP out of list of 55ish guys projected next up 🙁
What are the Rangers not doing?
I have a couple of thoughts.
The first is that losing Preller really hurt their IFA game. A lot.
The second is that the team, in general, has favored guys with huge tools and being raw in the draft. Josh Jung is very much not in that vein, and Alex Speas is an extreme example of their approach, but a lot of the guys are closer to Alex Speas than Josh Jung.
One other note– Eric is really down on Sam Huff because he thinks he won’t stay behind the plate, but not everyone believes that. Apparently he was the guy everyone was asking about when they were trying to trade for established stars. Of course, Eric is also really high on Yerry Rodriguez, so that might balance things out a bit.
I was curious which teams had the most prospects on this list.
Astros – 5
Marlins -4
Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Rays, Yankees – 3
Athletics, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Pirates, Red Sox, Royals – 2
Braves, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, Twins – 1
Cubs, Nationals, Reds, White Sox – 0
Since this is everyone’s opportunity to plug prospects with their favorite org….Two new Cubs I expect to get top 100 love next year:
Ryan Jensen – Two distinct fastballs in the mid-high 90s, underrated offspeeds, durable, healthy…All the tools, non-traditional size
Richard Gallardo – Algorithms will love him if he spends his age 18 in full season ball and continues to display a possibly wide skillset, not dominant in 2019 but I think the quality of his season goes unnoticed. Not big, but has command, multiple offspeeds, and hit 94-95 during games late in the season at a non-Rk level at 17. The HR he gave up in 2019 was to 35 YO Nick Hundley
I thought Diego Cartaya was a switch hitter, but him going R/R gives me some hope Ronnier Quintero can catch up. He almost joined the illustrious $3 million dollar IFA club that includes Gary Sanchez and Daniel Flores among catchers, signed for $2.9. Cartaya signed for $2.5 million by comparison.
Espino landed with the perfect org to develop the tools. The Indians do not get nearly enough love for their ability to develop SP going back to Sabathia if not Charles Nagy. Of course my thoughts go to the owners steering attention away from an org that keeps SP healthy, durable, and impactful because that’s not what they want The Future of the game to look like
So the Rays have how many up the middle switch hitters with ML futures? Franco, Brujan, Walls, Edwards, Jones, Fox…Feel free to send any of them to the Cubs!
The Indians have a switch hitting SS I like…Rocchio maybe? The one they call The Professor, if that’s the right nickname
How funny is it that Sal Perez made a career of being durable, yet he is the example for lack of durability?