Picks to Click: Who We Expect to Make the 2020 Top 100
When publishing our lists — in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s version. Whose stock are we buying? This post represents our best attempt to answer all of those questions at once.
This is the second year that we’re doing this, and we have some new rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been a 50 FV or better in any of our write-ups or rankings. So while we think Austin Hays might have a bounce back year and be a 50 FV again, we’re not allowed to include him here; you already know about him. We also forbid ourselves from using players who were on last year’s inaugural list. (We were right about 18 of the 63 players last year, a 29% hit rate, though we have no idea if that’s good or not, as it was our first time engaging in the exercise.) At the end of the piece, we have a list of potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year. They’re unlikely to ever be a 50 FV or better because of their role, but they often have a sizable impact on competitive clubs, and readers seemed to like that we had that category last year.
We’ve separated this year’s players into groups or “types” to make it a little more digestible, and to give you some idea of the demographics we think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own with THE BOARD. For players who we’ve already covered this offseason, we included a link to the team lists, where you can find a full scouting report. We touch briefly on the rest of the names in this post. Here are our picks to click:
Teenage Pitchers
Torres was young for his draft class, is a plus athlete, throws really hard, and had surprisingly sharp slider command all last summer. White looked excellent in the fall when the Rangers finally allowed their high school draftees to throw. He sat 92-94, and his changeup and breaking ball were both above-average. Pardinho and Woods Richardson are the two advanced guys in this group. Thomas is the most raw but, for a someone who hasn’t been pitching for very long, he’s already come a long way very quickly.
Eric Pardinho, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Lenny Torres, Jr., RHP, Cleveland Indians
Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, New York Mets (full report)
Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (full report)
Owen White, RHP, Texas Rangers
Mason Denaburg, RHP, Washington Nationals (full report)
Tahnaj Thomas, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (full report)
The “This is What They Look Like” Group
If you like big, well-made athletes, this list is for you. Rodriguez was physically mature compared to his DSL peers and also seems like a mature person. The Mariners have indicated they’re going to send him right to Low-A this year. He could be a middle-of-the-order, corner outfield power bat. Luciano was the Giants’ big 2018 July 2 signee. He already has huge raw power and looks better at short than he did as an amateur. Canario has elite bat speed. Adams was signed away from college football but is more instinctive than most two-sport athletes. Most of the stuff he needs to work on is related to getting to his power.
Julio Rodriguez, RF, Seattle Mariners
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
Alexander Canario, RF, San Francisco Giants
Jordyn Adams, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Jhon Torres, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Shervyen Newton, SS, New York Mets (full report)
Kevin Alcantara, CF, New York Yankees (full report)
Freudis Nova, SS, Houston Astros
Brice Turang, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (full report)
Connor Scott, CF, Miami Marlins (full report)
Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value
This is the group that produces the likes of Vidal Brujan and Luis Urias. Edwards is a high-effort gamer with 70 speed and feel for line drive contact. Marcano isn’t as stocky and strong as X, but he too has innate feel for contact, and could be a plus middle infield defender. Perez has great all-fields contact ability and might be on an Andres Gimenez-style fast track, where he reaches Double-A at age 19 or 20. Ruiz is the worst defender on this list, but he has all-fields raw power and feel for contact. He draws Alfonso Soriano comps. Palacios is the only college prospect listed here. He had three times as many walks as strikeouts at Towson last year. Rosario controls the zone well, is fast, and is a plus defender in center field.
Xavier Edwards, SS, San Diego Padres
Antoni Flores, SS, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Jose Devers, SS, Miami Marlins (full report)
Tucupita Marcano, SS, San Diego Padres
Wenceel Perez, SS, Detroit Tigers
Esteury Ruiz, 2B, San Diego Padres
Richard Palacios, SS, Cleveland Indians
Antonio Cabello, CF, New York Yankees (full report)
Cole Roederer, LF, Chicago Cubs (full report)
Jeisson Rosario, CF, San Diego Padres
Luis Garcia, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)
Simon Muzziotti, CF, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)
Corner Power Bats
Nevin will probably end up as a contact-over-power first baseman, but he might also end up with a 70 bat. He looked great against Fall League pitching despite having played very little as a pro due to injury. Lavigne had a lot of pre-draft helium and kept hitting after he signed. He has all-fields power. Apostel saw reps at first during instructs but has a good shot to stay at third. He has excellent timing and explosive hands.
Grant Lavigne, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Sherten Apostel, 3B, Texas Rangers
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Dylan Carlson, RF, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Moises Gomez, RF, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Elehuris Montero, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Tyler Nevin, 1B, Colorado Rockies
College-aged Pitchers
It’s hard to imagine any of these guys rocketing into the top 50 overall. Rather, we would anticipate that they end up in the 60-100 range on next year’s list. Gilbert was a workhorse at Stetson and his velo may spike with reshaped usage. Singer should move quickly because of how advanced his command is. Lynch’s pre-draft velocity bump held throughout the summer, and he has command of several solid secondaries. Abreu spent several years in rookie ball and then had a breakout 2018, forcing Houston to 40-man him to protect him from the Rule 5. He’ll tie Dustin May for the second-highest breaking ball spin rate on THE BOARD when the Houston list goes up. We’re intrigued by what Dodgers player dev will do with an athlete like Gray. Phillips throws a ton of strikes and has a good four-pitch mix.
Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Zac Lowther, LHP, Baltimore Orioles (full report)
Brady Singer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Bryan Abreu, RHP, Houston Astros
Daniel Lynch, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Wil Crowe, RHP, Washington Nationals (full report)
Josiah Gray, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jordan Holloway, RHP, Miami Marlins (full report)
Tyler Phillips, RHP, Texas Rangers
Bounce Back Candidates
The Dodgers have a strong track record of taking severely injured college arms who return with better stuff after a long period of inactivity. That could be Grove, their 2018 second rounder, who missed most of his sophomore and junior seasons at West Virginia. McCarthy was also hurt during his junior season and it may have obscured his true abilities. Burger is coming back from multiple Achilles ruptures, but was a strong college performer with power before his tire blew.
Michael Grove, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jake McCarthy, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jake Burger, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Thomas Szapucki, LHP, New York Mets (full report)
Catchers
We’re very excited about the current crop of minor league catchers. Naylor is athletic enough that he’s likely to improve as a defender and he has rare power for the position.
Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Indians
Payton Henry, C, Milwaukee Brewers (full report)
Potentially Dominant Relievers
These names lean “multi-inning” rather than “closer.” Gonsolin was a two-way player in college who has been the beneficiary of sound pitch design. He started last year but was up to 100 mph out of the bullpen the year before. He now throws a four seamer rather than a sinker and he developed a nasty splitter in 2017. He also has two good breaking balls. He has starter stuff but may break in as a reliever this year.
Trent Thornton, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP, Boston Red Sox (full report)
Dakota Hudson, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (full report)
Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (full report)
Colin Poche, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays (full report)
Trevor Stephan, RHP, New York Yankees (full report)
Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (full report)
Dakota Mekkes, RHP, Chicago Cubs (full report)
Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mauricio Llovera, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (full report)
Is it safe to assume that Wander Javier, generational prospect of the Minnesota Twins, will be getting his own feature article as your likely #1 prospect of 2020?
why are you so committed to this…
He probably woulnd’t be if there were not so many people committed to giving him attention.
Thank you for replying within the indentation, Ronnie.
I think there’s an excellent chance that Wander will be the #1 prospect of 2020.
I do too, although he should probably already be promoted by then. But the Twins seem content to manipulate his service time.
I hate it as much as the next guy, but this one made me laugh. If not for forcing the last 814 posts, I think this one may have received a few thumbs up.
I am a little curious to see how Javier develops, but not enough to put up with this.
All you have to do is skip right by. The indentation makes it easy.
It would be cool to have a one-click “skip past all the replies to this” though.
There is a hide replies button.
Come on now, he isn’t even the best shortstop prospect named Wander.
You’re wrong. Just stating facts.
I “Wander” when I’ll stop seeing the same question about Javier on every prospect site.
Yep. Except you spelled his last name wrong and he plays for Tampa Bay
I actually up-voted this because I fell for it last time
It gets even worse…. https://twitter.com/DustyColorado
No idea about how a Wander Javier account gets 127 followers
God forbid that Dusty ends up being right about him, we’ll never heard the end of it!
I am certain I am in the minority here but I quite enjoy the Wander Javier bit. If nothing else the level of commitment is exemplary
Eh, not commitment if it doesn’t cost him anything of value.
Initial takes:
– Not enough Richard Gallardo
– I am fully on board the Groshans, L. Torres, Kloffenstein, and Dylan Carlson wagons
– Darwinzon Hernandez should have made this top 100
Groshans and Kloffenstein, in particular, look like they have a lot of upside and don’t have quite as much risk as most prep players.
Both guys I pegged immediately off of one clip early in the draft process just before they were really cool, I really liked their debuts post-draft, and so it’s easy to buy in now. I actually flip flopped on Kloffenstein just before draft day, dropped him a little because he looked stiff or something, but he looked outstanding during his debut. Groshans was part of a group of 2018 HS bats (Naylor, Casas, Meadows, Edwards, might be forgetting someone) that I considered the goods. Both have what seem to be premium frames
Going to disagree on Hernandez. Hernandez had a BB/9 over 5 in High A. He’s most likely just a reliever… though potentially a very good one.
Knocking a pitcher for “only” seeming like a potential wipeout reliever is outdated by at least a half decade, particularly a power LH who has held up under SP workloads during his training/development
Yeah, I don’t see him as a top 100 prospect at all. 66 walks in 107 IP is insane. You can get away with that in A+, but he’s very likely a reliever. Those types of guys don’t go in the top 100. I’d put guys like Nico Hoerner in the top 100 ahead of him.
Fun fact: he also did other things besides 66 walks. In his 118.1+ innings this year (72 BBs) he also:
– Struck out 158(!!) batters
– Allowed 1(!!!!!) HR
– Allowed just 94 hits
– Avoided injury
– Threw really hard with a whiff inducing breaking pitch
– Did all those things as a LHP
That’s a very valuable prospect regardless of role, more dominance and fewer injuries than many guys inside the top 100, plus it’s both rare and in demand
I also don’t understand an intense focus on the one thing a guy doesn’t do when he does everything else.
It is…a pretty big thing. If you think he figures out any command this year, then clearly you think he will be on a Top 100 list next year.
While it’s an important skill to have in the major leagues, it’s clearly not all that to dominate sub-AA minor leaguers. From there I don’t have a ton of reason to believe low minors walk rates are all that predicitve by themselves, IIRC KATOH for instance did not find so far either pitchers or hitters, while the [many] things Hernandez does do tend to translate throughout pro ball.
So I don’t necessarily need him to figure out control, especially if we’ve already decided he’s a reliever, but if he did then we’re talking a potential TOR power LH who is probably a top 25 or better prospect
With as much as was made over Carlos Vargas on the podcast, I thought maybe he would make the list. Was he considered?
I expected Luis Oviedo, since he was 45+ at midseason over both L.Torres or Vargas and certainly over T.Thomas.
Positevely surprised about Richie Palacios though
I think it was a bit of a curious decision to hamstring your analysis with both of these restrictions: no previous 50 rating and no one from last year. I don’t see how these limitations further the discourse. I think many people now want to know whether or not you’ve given up on certain guys as top prospect potential.
I didn’t like the rule of no guys from last year.
Yeah I kinda get the point that you don’t want to keep saying the same names because if you say them enough and they don’t pan out, you are wrong…
…but then there is a guy like MJ Melendez, who they specifically said was close to consideration to top 130 (and has the tools that would warrant this pick to click list), but he can’t be included because he was mentioned in a line item last year.
If you are going to make a list of guys you think might breakout, make a list of guys you might think will breakout, then decide each year if you still think that or if you need to re-evaluate that guy because he hasn’t broken out like you thought.
Verbal up-vote.
Thanks for the list guys. When you’re looking at your hit rate next year (18/63 last year), it would also be interesting to know how many guys you missed, i.e. they would have been eligible for last year’s list but weren’t included, then jumped onto the top 130 anyway.
My nominations for guys who could have been on this list:
Anthony Seigler (Yankees)–teenage catchers are scary, but if he performs at the plate next year he’s an easy 50
Juan Pie (Pirates)–if he comes stateside and performs, he’s going to shoot up the lists
Aaron Ashby (Brewers)–could move fast
David Peterson (Mets)–part of the same group of guys like Brady Singer and such
Jarren Duran (Red Sox)–If the swing change holds and he can handle himself in center, he’s going to shoot up the rankings
Ethan Hankins (Cleveland)–I hate how quickly everyone soured on him when he was essentially pitching hurt his senior year.
I am a little surprised I didn’t see more big names from this year’s J2 class. Diego Cartaya, Richard Gallado, Osiel Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, etc. Maybe they think they’re all too far away from making a big splash.
Anthony Siegler! There’s a guy who was on radar during the draft (switch hitting catcher!) and became potentially possibly very exciting after his debut. I think he had one of the best debuts of 2018 draftees, outstanding bat to ball skills…I’m interested to see what kind of power he shows this year
Peterson’s a guy thay I believe should have made this year’s list
Yeah, I´m curious to see what they have to say about Hankins and Luis Oviedo (#93 on Baseball Propectus top 100 list) when they do the Indians write-up.
They’ve mentioned #4 starter upside for Oviedo. That profile tends to only make it onto the list once the player’s performing at AA/AAA.
Thanks appreciate that info re: Oviedo. I´ve seen other sites list him as a potential #2 so it´ll be interesting to see what Eric and Kiley (don´t) see in him.
I’m working from memory here but their reports have been positive despite the #4 tag. Kiley/Eric think potential #4 starters are good prospects.
I’m surprised to see you omitted Wander Javier (Twins).
He was on the list last year. I would have expected you to know about that.
Man, if someone would explain themselves about the downvotes, that might clear some things up. Right now it looks like it’s coming in (as it has in other articles) about 15-20 downvotes in the space of a few minutes.
You really need to stop caring about them. If you’re curious just remember that the baseline is people are neither bright or thoughtful en masse, especially about something so easy
Having seem what does get upvoted in the discussions about labor, hard pass on giving a half dang
Yeah, someone´s clearly targeting you which is just weird. That being said, I wish Fangraphs would get rid of the up/downvotes. Not sure what value they really add.
For some reason sites believe this to be a necessary feature on forums but it doesn’t actually add anything. Hell it may even encourage pandering
In summer 2011 something like 400 spam bots registered on my league’s DMB forum all of a sudden. We got rid of them all and haven’t had the problem since.
I second the Ethan Hankins comment. Pretty surprised to see Lenny Torres on the list and not Hankins
I think you’re missing the Chris Betts hype train. The Rays knew he needed Tommy John surgery, and still drafted him in the second round. He’s dealt with some injuries, but was finally healthy last year. Won his team MVP, and posted a great walk to strikeout ratio, especially for only having accumulated 150 plate appearances in his previous two years. With his power profile, advanced strike zone recognition, and premium position, he is one of the bigger breakout candidates in all of baseball.
I actually thought about Chris Betts, but there seems to be some devaluation of the catcher position right now. This seems insane to me, since it’s the hardest defensive position to fill, but I think the logic is that if a guy can’t stick at catcher the only place he can move is first base. That does seem like a possibility with Betts, but Eric and Kiley project him as a 50 field and 55 arm.
I’m with you that he could break out, but not that it’s such a high likelihood that someone’s making a mistake by not tabbing him as one of the ~35 or so most likely prospects in the minors to jump into the top-100. He was 21 in short-season last year, his third full season since being drafted, and hit poorly in his quick look in full-season. He’s a HS draftee whose setbacks have pretty much moved him back to the college draftee age/league track despite 3.5 years as a professional athlete. Someone to be aware of for sure, and they’re aware of him, but I don’t think you elevate a guy with this profile before he’s broken out just because he might.
I think Josh Lowe has similar breakout prospects, but I’m not going to stump for him on a list like this, because if you include someone like that I think there’s probably about 60-80 guys with similar potential around the minors and this isn’t a “here’s every 40 and 45 FV player who could conceivably become a 50+” article. That’s what the board and the team writeups are for.
Not his third full season since being drafted. He had 150 PA combined. That’s barely a full month.
He was drafted injured. He’s now healthy. In his first full season, he was very good. I think he easily justified his being taken in the 2nd round knowing he’d be out for a year and a half. The sky is the limit for a catcher with power and on base skills.
Three full seasons (and a half-season) have passed since he was drafted. I’m well aware he hasn’t played three full seasons. That missed time means something. As does the fact that he’s about to start a season in full-season ball for the first time at the age of 22 even though he was drafted out of HS. As do concerns about his ability to stay on the field when a lot of his potential prospect upside is tied to playing the game’s most physically demanding position.
I agree with you that he’s a possible breakout prospect, depending on whether you think he sticks at catcher or not.
This isn’t really a list of potential breakout prospects though. There are a couple of bounceback candidates listed, but really this is identifying the players in the minors who we can expect to move into the top-100 if they meet (or perhaps slightly exceed) reasonable performance expectations given their scouting profiles.
Really down on Franklin Perez?
I think Calvin Mitchell is probably worth a mention.
Also, Pirates will probably have all but Keller stay on top 100 as Hayes, Tucker etc won’t be needed this year and Pirates do full year at AAA generally. ,Swaggerty and Cruz are too young to graduate.
Tucker will fall off for another shitty year, imo. Cruz could too if the swing and miss monster gets him. Mitchell could be a good one, though.
In the Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value category I think we are collectively sleeping on Brice Turang. I have a hard time not understanding why he isn’t a better prospect than Xavier Edwards. Neither have a lot of pop, but both have good on base skills and will make their money on the base paths. Turang is the better defender and the rest seems pretty close to a wash to me, outside of off-season hype which carries a lot of weight. Pro debuts shouldn’t be allowed to separate players that much should they? Heliot Ramos is a good example of that.
Note that Turang is in the “This is what they look like” group directly above the “Advanced bats” group. I don’t think they’re suggesting that Edwards is a better prospect than Turang at this point?
It’s interesting that you have Gray listed, and have omitted Jeter Downs, whom you grade more highly. What gives?
No love for Malcolm Nunez? I know it was the DSL but he put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers at age 17. I know he’s more physically mature than his peers as well but those numbers are hard to ignore.
Yes, he is physically mature at 17/18 years old. You know who else was physically mature at that age? Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and many other tremendous players. It’s actually a good thing to be physically mature — the only real drawback is, you have to be careful not to fill out too much, or you wind up forfeiting mobility like Delmon Young or Miguel Sano.
The unsung guy I like is Jose Miranda. Merely okay in the field and on the bases, but he possesses a power/contact profile that bodes well for future hitting development. As a teen in the Midwest League he finished the year with 26 XBH’s and 26 strikeouts over his final 240 AB’s, before being promoted to High-A. And this on the heels of his Appy League performance in 2017, when he posted a .200 isolated slugging while fanning less than 10% of the time. Good-sized kid, listed at 6′ 2″ and 185.
Remember the name. Jose Miranda.
Is Lazarito still too young to be here? I was looking for him in the “This is What They Look Like,” though I guess he’s not actually that big.
Lazarito looks like he could be a professional gymnast.
I am rooting for that guy to become a player. He’s a great example of what’s wrong with the prospect game, the sensationalism of it all. He was elevated as the latest and greatest, knocked down almost immediately, and then forgotten when the new latest and greatest to then be knocked down came up…All within a very tiny window of time (weeks maybe a handful months) as a teenager. Sports entertainment
A little surprised not to see Seth Beer as a Corner Power Bat or Durbin Feltman as a Potentially Dominant Reliever. Down on them, or just a matter of taste?
I just read the Durbin Feltman write up on BP. They said he was MLB ready and Jeffrey Paternostro in a BP chat definitely implied that he will very likely be part of the Red Sox pen this season. Seems like quite a difference of opinion on him.
Maybe that’s the theory – he won’t be a prospect next year.
My Yankee-centric take on this: Deivi Garcia, Anthony Seigler, Roansy Contreras, and Everson Pereira. I could see all four have solid seasons and making the top 100 next year.
If Deivi Garcia should definitely be on this list, as should Seigler. Pereira is going to need some time.
What is really weird about leaving out Contreras is that Eric and Kiley literally wrote “Contreras could grab a spot in next year’s Top 100 with a full healthy season of performance like his breakout 2018 campaign” on the Yankees writeup.
Ha, that’s probably just an oversight then. You might be right on Pereira, but he’ll be in full season ball next year as a young 18 year old (turns 18 in April). If he just doesn’t embarrass himself, he should be in the discussion. I hate to bring up literally the 2nd best prospect in baseball, but him and Wander Franco were the only ones from their IFA class in short season ball last year.
It’d be great to revisit this list when the top 100 is published and to do the same exercise for several years. What hit rate would be “good?” 25%?
Curious as to your thoughts on Brennen Davis. He seems like one guy who could gain some serious helium this season.
I love the buzz around Davis this offseason and hope he follows up well. Big fan of the low K/high average debut, just wish he hit for some power too
One guy I don’t think gets enough attention is Jordan Holloway. The report on him from the instructional league said he was “commanding 95-97 with movement, touching 99, and flashing a plus breaking ball.” He’s coming off TJ surgery, but he’s a breakout candidate.
Still sleeping on Kevin Smith.
The Padres are stacked.
I thought I might see Jeter Downs here, from what I’ve read about his upside.
Are the sections in any kind of order? i.e. the higher on the list, the better??
No love for Ryan McKenna?
Ryan’s a guy I originally was much higher on but after looking a little closer, I think the first half of 2018 may have been a fluke. In 3+ years of minor league ball, this is the only time he ever really excelled. Add in that he had a .437 BABIP on top of that and I think you just have to chalk it up to luck. On a side note, Ryan, if you’re reading this, happy birthday!
Jhon Torres made me really like that Cardinals/Indians trade. I think he’s a future starter.
Has David Peterson lost some of his prospect value or did he never really have that much value? He was talked about as a potential top 10 pick during his draft year, slid to the Mets at #20, was scraping the bottom of top 100 lists and seems to have faded away a bit. Whats the deal?
Love the reliever prospect outlook.
I’m interested to watch Cal Raleigh too. Productive college player that was very good in short season. I would guess he’ll get bumped up to low A with a chance to advance to high A if he performs.
I highly doubt Dakota Hudson will maintain his rookie eligibility next year. While he’s questionable to make the Opening Day roster, he should still see quite a number of MLB innings this year in addition to the ones he pitched last year.