If you get déjà vu reading this report it’s because Manning has become the dream. All of the physical components that many front-end arms have while they’re in high school were there when he was an amateur — shooting guard frame, premium arm strength and athleticism, a breaking ball — the stuff that enables your imagination to run wild. And Manning succeeded while devoting time to two sports, which caused him to get a late start during his draft spring because the hoops team was in the middle of a deep playoff run (Manning threw late into the prior summer, so this may have actually been good for limiting innings).

After some initial strike-throwing issues and a change in stride direction, the REM cycle arrived. The walks came down, Manning’s changeup got better, and he started working with two different fastballs and was clearly manipulating the shape of his spike curveball depending on the hitter and situation. He’s never had arm issues (his 2018 IL stint was due to an oblique injury), and he has rare on-mound athleticism coupled with an understanding of how to pitch. He’s going to have three out-pitches thanks to adjustments he’s already made, and it’s fair to assume he’ll be able to make more. Manning is tracking like an All-Star starter and a potential top-of-the-rotation arm.

We would not have guessed that, at this stage, the two-sport prep pitching prospect in this system would have lower perceived variance than the dominant SEC arm who went first in his draft class, but here we are. Mize has hellacious stuff. His four-pitch mix has actually gotten better since college because he and the Tigers successfully added greater demarcation between his cutter and slider, the latter of which now has more two-plane sweep. His entire repertoire is capable of missing bats, like Manning’s, but Mize’s split is superior to Manning’s change and he has an additional weapon, the cutter, that Manning does not.

So why ever-so-slightly prefer Manning? Mize’s injury track record is as scary as his stuff. Some teams had concerns about his shoulder when he was a draft-eligible high schooler, he had elbow issues as a sophomore at Auburn, he had a PRP injection after he pitched for Team USA the summer before his draft year, and in 2019, he missed a month with a shoulder injury. After Mize returned, he had some outings where his fastball was in the 90-92 range, he used his splitter less frequently, and when he did use it, it had more spin than usual. It’s speculation, but perhaps he was tinkering with changeup grips after the injury. That’s an awful lot of smoke. Purely on quality of stuff, Mize is arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. We still love him and think it’s perfectly reasonable to consider him the top youngster in this system and one of the best on the planet, but what Manning has become, what he might continue to develop into based on his athleticism and now-evident ability to make adjustments, combined with his much, much cleaner bill of health, shades him ahead of Mize, in our (mostly Eric’s) opinion, within the same FV tier.

Advanced high school hitters are common on Florida’s diamonds, and while Greene constantly squared up top high school pitching as well as any of his peers, he also underwent a bit of a physical transformation that made at least some scouts more optimistic that he’ll be able to play an instincts-driven center field long term. During his pre-draft summer, Greene was a little soft-bodied, his running gait was odd, and he seemed destined to play little more than an average outfield corner. The player scouts watched the following spring had a better physical composition, was more explosive and a better runner, and had as ripe a high school hit tool as was available in the draft. This was similar to how Jarred Kelenic’s skills were colored as he came out of high school.

Greene’s swing, curated by his father from an early age, is beautiful. He can clear his hips and turn on just about anything on the inner half, drop the bat head and lift balls with power, strike balls the other way with authority, and he tracked and whacked many high school benders. The bend and flexion in Greene’s front knee as his swing clears the point of impact is reminiscent of several Dodger hitters. Though there are many examples of Greene having certain types of athleticism (he is a tremendous leaper, for instance), he’s not a runner and we don’t have him in center field. But we think he’ll hit enough that it doesn’t matter.

Skubal was rehabbing from Tommy John during his junior year at Seattle University and only managed to throw a few bullpen sessions in front of scouts before the 2017 draft. Scouts liked what they saw, but not enough to meet a price tag that was up around $1 million according to sources. Skubal went back to school and was horrendous early in the year before he slowly began to throw more and more strikes. Now 29 teams and their evaluators are cursing themselves for either failing to notice that upward trend throughout the 2018 spring, or for noticing but lacking conviction in the draft room.

There are some folks in baseball who have Skubal right up in the same tier with Mize and Manning. He has a dominant fastball, equal parts velocity, ride, and tough-to-square angle. So unhittable is Skubal’s heater that he’s struck out 37% of hitters during his pro career (48% over the final few weeks over Double-A play last year) while throwing the pitch roughly 70% of the time. No current big leaguer with a fastball that plays at the top of the zone throws their fastball that much; anyone close to 70% is a sinkerballer. An occasionally good changeup and slider aside, Skubal’s secondaries are not all that great in a vacuum, but luckily they too benefit from the funky angle created by Skubal’s cross-bodied, high-slot delivery. His overall swinging strike rate (18%) was higher than the rate on his fastball alone (15%), which means the secondaries were a net positive for him, but we’re unsure of what big league hitters will do if they know a fastball aimed at the letters is coming most of the time. So while he’s had nothing but goofy strikeout rates for two years, we think Skubal ends up more toward the middle of a rotation rather than the front.

Paredes has a .291/.376/.425 line in 166 Double-A games. He’s quite comfortable in the box, and shows balance throughout his swing and incredible hand-eye coordination. A lack of in-game power and/or defensive excellence, combined with the abnormally high bar to clear at third base right now, may overshadow Paredes’ short-term impact in a league-wide context. Body-related concerns about his athletic longevity pinch what we think he’ll do in his late 20s. Paredes should hit enough to be an average everday player, like Luis Arraez except on a corner.

We were quick to move off of Faedo after he sat out the summer of 2017, then returned in 2018 with a fastball several ticks lower than where it was at peak, but we did so prematurely. Much of his velocity was back in 2019. He’s still searching for a consistent changeup, one with a little more velocity separation than it currently has, but Faedo’s slider and slider command give him an out-pitch. He’s thrown about 120 innings each of the last several years and should end up with a similar big league workload, a No. 4/5 starter.

Wentz has given scouts a number of different looks over the years: he hit the showcase circuit as a position player while resting his arm, showing 70-grade raw power, then showed 92-95 heat and a plus curveball at times in an uneven spring, followed by a full season debut where he mostly sat 88-91 with a great changeup. In 2018, Wentz had shoulder and oblique issues and his stuff played closer to average; in 2019 he was a bit healthier and better. He still has a near ideal frame and athleticism to go with a bag of 50- and 55-grade pitches and other qualities that give him a good shot to be a No. 4/5 starter.

The Tigers are in a bit of a pickle with Perez. He’s one of the few position players in the system who has a realistic chance of playing some sort of everyday role because of his speed, defensive profile, and feel for contact. He’s also still very young, physically immature, and a very raw swinger from the left side of the plate. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible next winter. Unless Perez grows into better quality contact, be it physically, mechanically, or both, he may become one of the several quality prospects who get exposed in the Rule 5 every year because the parent club thinks they’re too raw for other teams to bite. Red Sox 2019 Rule 5 pick, Jonathan Arauz, is a similar player. For now, Perez projects as a second-division regular at shortstop so long as the bat-to-ball feel turns into more than spray/grounder contact.

2019 was the worst statistical season of Cameron’s career by far. Strikeout frequency (which had been an underlying issue throughout much of his pro tenure) combined with a low BABIP (well below Cameron’s career norm) to generate a .214/.330/.377 line. He still had 40 extra-base hits, and Cameron’s all-fields power (he doesn’t have huge raw, but he does have wall-scraping pop to center and right center because the swing has some inside out elements) and selectivity give him the ability to do some slugging damage and reach base amid all the whiffing. Daz has been a known prospect for seven or eight years now. He’s got great body control but isn’t especially toolsy, and his instincts and baseball acumen play a large role in his defensive ability and baserunning. Overall, he’s a well-rounded player with fair tools, a 1.5 WAR type.

Perez’s first few pro seasons were notable because of how quickly Houston pushed him through the minors. A polished strike-thrower with four good pitches, he reached Double-A as a 19-year-old back in 2017 before he became the centerpiece of the Justin Verlander deal. Advanced though he was, various injuries have robbed Perez of innings. In 2016, he had knee trouble; in 2018, it was a lat strain, then shoulder inflammation. An ominous trap issue popped up during the early parts of 2019 spring training but Perez was back on the mound quickly and sitting his usual 93-96 into late-March, before he had three IL stints — in April, May, and June — and was shut down for the year.

He has yet to throw more than 86 frames in an entire season, so while he may be fairly advanced for someone his age, and definitely for someone who has pitched so little, the industry has yet to see his stuff hold up for a whole summer of starter’s innings. He has mid-rotation stuff, but has one of the longest injury histories in the minors, and he’s barely 22.

The younger brother of Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, Parker has some similarities to his big league sibling, but his tools are actually compared more often to those of Indians center fielder Bradley Zimmer. Zimmer and the younger Meadows both have deceptively easy plus speed due to their long frames, and each has a plus arm and plus raw power; Christian Yelich is the advanced hitter version of this profile. But as a high schooler, Meadows’ main concern was tied to contact issues caused by his long limbs and lack of rhythm at the plate. The Tigers took him in the second round out of high school in 2018 and he hasn’t quite dialed in the offensive approach yet, with a high strikeout rate in the summer after signing and marginal power in his full-season debut, but the upside remains the same.

Quintana had a four-year track record of statistical performance dating back to his senior year of high school, but after the draft he suddenly stopped hitting against Low-A and Short Season pitching. His swing is somewhat grooved, but he has an athletic move forward and should hit a ton of doubles. A well-rounded offensive skillset and above-average defense at third is an everyday profile, but there’s some hit-tool risk here.

Lange’s velocity last year was back to what it was during his best days at LSU, and his strikeout rate spiked after the Cubs traded him to Detroit in the Nick Castellanos deal and he was moved to the bullpen. Our high speed footage shows Lange throwing two different breaking balls, though their movement is hard to distinguish in real time. The slider is effective despite lacking spin, and has late, downward movement. Lange might fit in a multi-inning relief role.

Castro shares many offensive similarities with a young Freddy Galvis. He’s a switch-hitter with some pop who hasn’t totally figured out how to get to that power in games yet. Galvis, who is a superior defender, figured it out and became a low-OBP, 45 FV type of player, so Castro fits in a tier below that. He may be a placeholder at shortstop.

Hess was a well-known power arm on the high school summer showcase circuit and into the spring, showing mid-90s heat, a plus power curveball, and a reliever’s command and approach in his best stints. Due to the prep righty reliever profile, his price wasn’t met and he went to LSU, where they tried to make him a starter after a solid freshman year in relief. The starter role never quite took, as he mostly sat in the low-90s with lesser stuff. His stuff got back to his showcase circuit best in pro ball in short stints, which seems like the best role for him going forward.

De la Cruz has a right field prospect toolkit straight out of central casting — plus raw power, plus arm, average underway speed, contact issues at present — and a year of DSL statistical performance arguably derived from his physical maturity. His Trackman data is very strong, especially for his age. He could be a middle of the order power bat, but he’s years away.

Injuries — shoulder inflammation, biceps tendinitis, oblique strain — ruined Burrows’ 2019. When healthy (well, when he was pitching), Burrows’ fastball was fine, but his secondaries were not. He could bounce back into the 45 FV tier if they’re back in 2020.

Packard’s junior year power output dipped because of injuries (back and wrist), but he had a stock-up summer after the draft. He’s patient, has above-average raw power, and looks like a potential Lucas Duda type of lefty stick.

Contact-related warts and all, we still like Rogers as a low-end regular who played elite defense while hitting for some pull power, much like what Austin Hedges has been. We’re not sure how valuable the foundation of Rogers’ skillset will be in a few years if automated strike zones are instituted, and fear interesting players like this will disappear if they are.

Hernandez is one of two Angels rookie-level pitchers Detroit received in the Ian Kinsler (Hernandez) and Justin Upton (Elvin Rodriguez) trades. Of the two, Hernandez is the one who experienced an uptick in velocity. Both had been in the 88-92 range with frames that portended more. Then last year, Hernandez was suddenly up to 96. And there might be another jump if Hernandez ends up in the bullpen, where he’d be a power fastball/breaking ball reliever. His changeup quality and year-over-year strike-throwing improvements merit continued development in the rotation, and give Hernandez a shot to be a No. 4/5 starter.

Reyes is one of several examples of Detroit targeting physically mature corner bats with present raw power on the amateur market. He worked out as a shortstop as an amateur but projected to third base at best. He has an athletic, rotational swing and plus bat speed, and his bat path has some natural lift, while his frame appears destined to add considerable mass and strength. Arm accuracy and mobility issues, especially as he gets bigger, could move Reyes way, way down the defensive spectrum, but he could end up with above or plus hit and power tools.

Clemens had a pretty strong Florida State League line (.238/.314/.411 is above average in the FSL), albeit as an old-for-the-level hitter. He generates consistent hard contact because of the strength in his wrists and hands. His lower half and hands often appear disconnected, which can result in ugly contact that’s still hit hard because of Clemens’ strength. He projects as a one-ish win, shift-aided second baseman.

Even on a loaded Arkansas team, Kenley stayed under the national scouting radar since he didn’t play much until his junior year, and was an infielder without much power who didn’t play shortstop. He shows 45 raw power in BP, but has a flat swing plane that’s geared for line drives and contact. He seems like candidate for a swing change, but could also carve out a bench role as a lefty-hitting, contact oriented bench bat infielder along the lines of Tommy LaStella.

A vanilla but well-rounded college infielder, Kreidler’s best defensive fit is at third base, but he’s fundamentally sound enough to stand at a middle infield spot if needed. A conservative, contact-oriented approach coupled with limited raw power shade the projection toward a bench infield/utility type.

Campos defected from Cuba with his brother in 2016 at a Little League tournament in the Dominican Republic. The Tigers locked him up pretty quickly after their first couple looks, with some clubs barely seeing him at all. He’s a corner outfield prospect with present power who needs to hit to profile. We know next to nothing about the hit tool at this point.

The career saves leader at Miami, Garcia tore through the minors and pitched across four levels, all the way to Triple-A, in his first full pro season. Then he blew out during the spring of 2018. He works fastball/slider to righties, fastball/changeup to lefties, and both secondaries are very firm, upper-80s pitches. Neither is a dominant offering, but the pitch mix lifts Garcia above an up/down role.

Chiang is going to pitch in the big leagues next year. He throws hard (up to 96 during a pre-tournament exhibition, up to 98 during the 2019 minor league season) and has a backspinning fastball due to his vertical arm slot. He’ll also flash a plus changeup, which he uses against right-handed hitters sometimes, and his two-plane slider is fringy. It’s an arm strength relief profile.

He’s not as physically projectable as most pitchers his age, but Montero’s fastball will crest around 95 and he has a potential out-pitch in his curveball.

Funkhouser was added to Detroit’s 40-man despite more injury and erratic performance in 2019. At times he’ll show three above-average pitches; at others he can’t get anyone out. He hasn’t thrown more than 100 innings in any pro season, and at this point he’s considered a relief prospect with a long track record of injury.

Rodriguez was an advanced pitchability righty with physical projection when Detroit acquired him from the Angels for Justin Upton. He’s now 22, and the velo hasn’t arrived. He still has a great build and arm action, but he’s looking like a sixth or seventh starter now because the heat just hasn’t come.

Lipcius moved from first base as a freshman, to shortstop as a sophomore, to his natural home of third base as a junior at Tennessee, and then all over the infield during his first taste of pro ball. He hit for more power in his draft year than was expected given a contact-oriented approach (Lipcius ditches his leg kick with two strikes, and he’s willing to poke balls, softly, the other way). He projects as a multi-positional bench infielder.

Garcia spent most of 2019 at Double-A Trenton, where he posted a FIP of 4.21, then he went first overall in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft. He sits 91-94 and touches 95 with pretty significant fastball spin for that velo range — about 2400 rpm on average — but because Garcia has a lower arm slot, the pitch doesn’t have the kind of lift that would miss bats. The arm slot and Garcia’s above-average, two-plane breaking ball make him especially tough on righties, who he held to a .197/.273/.356 line in 2019. The changeup needs to get better if Garcia is going to continue to start, but Detroit is becoming quite good at implementing coherent pitch design, so maybe it will, or perhaps the Tigers will find a way to give him a relevant second breaking ball.

Foley’s arm strength was back after his Tommy John, but his out-pitch changeup was not. His secondary pitch of choice last year was a slider. He’d be a 40 FV with that split/change back in the fold, but as an arm strength-only sort, he’s more of an up/down reliever.

“This guy isn’t pitching yet?” one of us was asked by a source as we talked about this system. Alcantara has a laser arm, he can run, he’s a good defensive shortstop, and he even has above-average ball/strike recognition. But the quality of contact is arguably insufficient for even a utility role. He’s nearly out of option years. We wonder if reps in center might enable a 26th man sort of role, but also think it’s possible the Tigers give a conversion to the mound a shot since Detroit is getting better at developing pitchers, including a few interesting conversion arms.

Pinto has a huge fastball and both of his secondaries dovetail in opposite directions, but neither has consistent, bat-missing movement. Fold in a career walk rate in the teens, and even though he’s doing damage with his fastball at Double-A, Pinto was passed over in the Rule 5. He’s only 21 and is a realistic up/down relief prospect with some ceiling above that due to the arm strength.

He doesn’t have sleeves (which is the nature of the garment) but Vest still does a good job hiding the ball from hitters. His deceptive, overhand delivery looks like a trebuchet and creates late carry on his fastball, which sat 94 and touched 97 during the season, but was 91-93 in Eric’s Fall league looks. His secondary stuff is more average, so it’s important the velo returns.

Two seasons ago, Guzman was an exciting, new conversion arm who was sitting in the mid-90s and rapidly gaining feel for a good changeup. But in 2019, his stuff was down, his command backed up, and he was eventually shut down with injury. Rather than a 2019 leap placing Guzman in late-inning air, he’s now a bounce-back candidate who won’t be on the list if his velo isn’t back in the spring.

An extreme strike-thrower, Richan is severly lacking in stuff. He relies on freezing people and inducing weak contact with his changeup and fastball location. He’s likely a sixth starter type.

McMillan is an athletic, well-built catcher with ball/strike recognition, and a slow bat. He projects as a third catcher on the 40-man, and his build suggests he’ll probably hang around for a while.

De Jesus signed at 19 and had been slow to develop (he spent parts of three seasons in the DSL) until 2019, when he skipped a level, then earned a mid-year promotion to Hi-A. He throws hard — 91-96 with huge extension — and his fastball has relevant movement up and away from lefty batters. He’s well-built but not very athletic, and he throws a lot of non-competitive pitches because he struggles to repeat. He’s a lower probability reliever but there’s some ceiling because of how the fastball plays.

Even though he hit .278/.340/.474 as a 20-year-old at Double-A Mississippi, there are still some level-headed, long-term questions about Pache’s offensive ability. He had a 17% swinging strike rate last year (if we 20-80’d swinging strike rates, that’d be a 30), and you might quibble with elements of the swing, most notably that the bat path only allows for power in certain parts of the zone, and Pache has a passive, shorter move forward. The hand speed and rotational ability to hit for power is there, and he’s athletic enough to make adjustments in order to get to that power (selectivity might also be an issue), which, coupled with some of the flashiest, most acrobatic defense in pro baseball, gives Pache a cathedral ceiling.

Even though he’s already started to slow down a little bit, Pache’s reads in center, his contortionistic ability to slide and dive at odd angles to make tough catches, and his arm strength combine to make him a premium defensive center fielder — he’s a likely Gold Glover barring unexpected, precipitous physical regression. Even if he’s not posting All-Star offensive statlines, we think he’ll provide All-Star value overall because of the glove.

Waters’ initial rise to top 50 prospect status was surprising to some, coming as it did by the end of his first full season. He’s got 55-to-60 grade tools across the board and always hit in high school. Some teams were and remain turned off by his loud personality, while others just see him as a colorful guy. The other concern is his aggressive approach at the plate, which didn’t give him any trouble until his taste of Triple-A late in 2019, and some scouts and analysts think it could be a problem in the big leagues.

That’s the soft part of the profile, but the indicators both to the eye (scouts rave about the swing, bat speed, and feel at the plate) and in the stats point to elite ability to manipulate the bat. One club told us his percentage of balls hit with 95 mph-plus exit velo and a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees (i.e. hard hit line drives and fly balls) was in the top 3% of the entire minor leagues. And that comes as a 20-year-old in the upper minors who has plus speed and a plus arm, and who profiles in center field, with other variables that could allow you to keep rounding up from there. The happy version of this story is Starling Marte, and as soon as the middle of 2020; the sad version includes multiple years stuck in neutral at the big league level, trying to argue that the upside and defense makes up for the big strikeout rate. We’re leaning more to Marte at this point.

Anderson is tracking like a mid-rotation starter, even though he hasn’t added velocity since high school, because his secondary stuff is excellent. The pitch with the most obvious beauty is his shapely curveball, which has enough depth (despite its paltry spin rate) to miss bats in the zone, and also pairs well with his fastball’s approach angle. His change has tail and fade, and either it or the curve can finish hitters. The Braves amateur department really stuck out their necks in 2016 by cutting an underslot deal with Anderson, and then using the savings to sign Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson, who are both key near-term pitching staff stalwarts, and Joey Wentz, who was traded. That’s an impressive class, especially considering how risky a subgroup prep pitching is.

Wright has now had two frustrating cups of coffee with the big league club, and some of his underlying issues (chiefly, a fastball that doesn’t produce results anywhere close to what you’d expect given how hard he throws) mimic those of the Aaron Sanchez type of pitching prospects who Look Right but don’t quite pan out.

We’re betting that Wright, who is very athletic and has the frame and mechanical ease to eat innings, and who has also developed a very deep repertoire, will find a way to be at least a league-average starter eventually. Whether that’s through further changes to his fastballs’ movement (he throws a four- and two-seamer right now, but both are sink/tail pitches rather than the ride/vertical life breed) or a heavy mix of his various secondary offerings, Wright has promising outs. If he and the Braves ever find a way to make the fastball play better than that, his ceiling is substantial, so there’s rare variance for a 24-year-old here.

Wilson is a scout favorite. He’s an aggressive bulldog with a football background who relies on spotting his fastball in all quadrants of the zone, with the velocity, movement, and command all grading above average on his various fastballs (he has a distinct four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter). He’s a solid athlete with strong command and a solid average changeup, and everyone raves about his work ethic and makeup.

The issue, which will dictate his value in the bullpen or rotation, is his breaking ball. He’s been working on the slider all offseason and the team is optimistic that all his other strong qualities will manifest themselves in its development. Wilson will be limited to one time through the order if he can’t live up to that optimism, though it’s not as if there isn’t value in that, and Wilson’s mentality might arguably be better suited for it.

Stay on Contreras despite the relatively vanilla offensive performance. The Braves pushed him quickly — half a year at Hi-A, half at Double-A at age 21 — and the developmental priority seems to be defense for now. Contreras also has quite a bit more raw power than his 2019 output would suggest. His swing is a lot like Pache’s right now, which is indicative of some of his issues but also how athletic Contreras is for a catcher. He can drop the bat head and yank balls out to his pull side at times, then lunge at breaking stuff away from him at others. It’s rare physical talent for a catcher who projects as Atlanta’s everyday backstop.

Davidson was a low-profile JC arm who the Braves gambled on in 2016. After improving his body composition entering the 2017 season, his stuff and command improved too, and he looked like a potential no. 4 starter. After plateauing at that level for a bit, Davidson’s 2019 represented another step forward. He ran his heater up to 98 during the regular season, then got some attention weeks ago when he hit 100 mph at Driveline on a motion capture-enabled mound. His four-seam fastball has big rise and velocity, while his curveball has plus spin and his slider is 88-91 mph, with all three garnering strong results in terms of whiffs and grounders. The main adjustments in this bump were mechanical, with another round of refinements to his frame. There’s now mid-rotation upside, and Davidson has reached Triple-A as the optimization process is now closer to complete.

Langeliers was a mid-tier prospect in high school who took a big step forward as a freshman at Baylor and on the Cape that summer, developing the raw power to be more than just a catch-and-throw type. He still didn’t put up much in the way of traditional statistical production until the second half of his junior season, which amazingly occurred after a very quick return from a broken hamate bone. He was scouted heavily over the summer with Team USA, so scouts knew solid average raw power and some feel for contact were present to go along with above average defensive skills and a plus arm.

Langeliers’ frame is compact and stout, and his bat’s impact is a question mark, but he has everyday tools and more power should come in 2020 with the broken hamate in the rear view.

Shewmake isn’t a traditionally exciting player, as nobody really saw big raw power or flashy tools leading up to the draft. Some clubs were down on him and we piled on by moving him down in our rankings just before Day One, seeing a non-shortstop with a track record of hitting but without much power or any loft, who seemed one-dimensional given a swing that often barred-out. It would appear that point of view was wrong, given Shewmake’s quick transition to pro ball, which better showcased his ability. He went straight to Low-A after signing and was outstanding at the plate, with an excellent approach and sneaky power, to go along with very positive public and private defensive metrics at shortstop.

The key gap between the two points of view was tied to Shewmake’s long frame: his long stride made his speed, defensive range, and defensive instincts seem less impressive and impactful, when in reality, they may all be plus. There’s also raw power upside if there’s more physical development and a possible loft/swing adjustment, and that now seems more likely given how advanced, instinctual, and coachable he’s proven to be so far. There’s a good bit more variability here than you’d expect for a college hitter with a three-year major conference track record, so the first half of 2020 will let us know if there’s more helium left in this balloon.

A bit of a pitch design autodidact who got the Driveline treatment during the 2018-2019 offseason, Muller came back with more interesting stuff, as well as a skyrocketing walk rate. His stuff is great, especially the fastball, which has one of the highest spin rates in the minors. Muller’s delivery has become less staccato, less deliberate, and more athletic, but his max-effort style and difficulty repeating likely pushes him to the bullpen, or at least keeps his innings count down if he ends up starting.

Not only does Jackson have the highest hard hit rate (95 mph or above) in this system, he has one of the highest in the minors, as 51% of his balls in play last year were scorched. His epicurean approach at the plate, and what it does to his peripherals, makes Jackson a hit-tool risk, and at most other positions that would be very scary. While he is still not a great catcher, he improved considerably in 2019 defensively, particularly at framing, by copying some of Tyler Flowers‘ methods. The league average wRC+ at catcher before framing quantification was in the low 90s. If things return to that level, Jackson’s power should enable him to profile everyday. He could be more of a backup, DH/1B sort for a few years and fall into an everyday role toward the end of our six-year evaluation window.

De La Cruz is sitting 91-97 and touching 99 as a starter, and it’s reasonable to expect that he will be parked toward the top of that velocity range in relief, which is where we have him projected. It’s rare for deliveries as chaotic and violent as De La Cruz’s to root into a rotation, but with his arm strength and the power, downward action on his slider, he could end up with high-leverage stuff. He’s now on the 40-man.

Harris would have been an elite college player with top-five round ability both as a hitter and a pitcher, but most scouts preferred him on the mound. He was used unusually during his senior spring, and some scouts think that he could be 90-93 with everything average to above within 12 months in a pro setting, counting on his quick arm and above average athleticism, projectable frame, and his limited showcase presence and coaching in the projection.

The Braves preferred Harris as a hitter most of the spring; he blew them away in a pre-draft private workout, showing plus raw power, making him a priority on draft day. He also beat expectations in his pro debut, and there’s now some thought that he could be a center fielder as he gets more instruction, and may get faster as he gets stronger. There’s no bad data to consider due to his lack of exposure before his draft spring, so some would see Harris as a comp round pick in a 2019 redraft. We won’t really know his ceiling until he fails some, making him one of the biggest risers from the 2019 class thus far.

Vodnik got on the national stage hitting 97 mph in the fall before his draft year, but his size and 87-90 mph draft spring velo kept him from becoming a high pick. The Braves scooped him up late and got him back to 92-95, touching 98 mph, with solid average offspeed in instructional league the fall after the draft. He made another stuff jump in 2019.

Vodnik is a good athlete with plus extension, particularly for his size, and he’ll run his heater up to 100 while mixing in a plus breaking ball and throwing more strikes than Jasseel De La Cruz. But Vodnik is still on the smaller side, and is more butcher than surgeon. Given the athleticism and lack of experience with his current arm speed, Atlanta is optimistic and wants Vodnik to tell them what sort of role suits him best going forward, with one to two inning relief stints most likely.

Because he was a high school teammate of 2019 fifth overall pick Riley Greene, Grissom was heavily scouted as he broke out during his senior spring, rising from a pocket follow to an early round prospect. The Braves saved money on their picks in the top 10 round so they could splurge on prep prospects who slipped. Grissom wanted to be a Brave and Atlanta scouted him closely all spring, convinced he could stick at shortstop, despite a 6-foot-3, 180 pound frame that had many scouts assuming he’d move off the position. His tools are average to a hair above across the board, and his offensive approach is more power-over-bat.

In many ways, Ynoa is like De La Cruz: a minor league starter with big time arm strength who ultimately projects in the bullpen. In fact, some industry feedback on this org list thought Ynoa, who is a little younger than De La Cruz and a level ahead of him in the minors, belonged higher. But Ynoa’s slider has horizontal wipe and relies more on location to miss bats, and he doesn’t stick it there consistently, whereas others in the system are more likely to have an impact breaking ball. The Braves briefly tried Ynoa in the bullpen last year before returning him to the rotation for most of the summer, but we think he’ll ultimately end up in middle relief role.

Tarnok was primarily a hitter in high school, and many teams didn’t take him seriously as a pitcher or even see him multiple times until late in the spring. The Braves were the team highest on him, and talked him into giving pitching a shot full-time with a well-over-slot bonus.

Tarnok is, as expected, still raw, but it’s easy to see what Braves scouts were so excited about: he has near-ideal body and arm action, along with standout arm strength, athleticism, and ability to spin the ball. He was a trendy breakout pick for 2019 but had a mostly lost year, including a velo dip into the mid-to-upper-80s in a game we saw, but bounced back to the normal 92-95 mph heater late in the year. Some teams were ready to buy low during the velo dip, but the Braves still believe in Tarnok’s potential.

Alexander (the brother of D-backs shortstop prospect Blaze Alexander) slid to the 20th round due to questions about his profile as a large-framed, power-first, likely first baseman who had only player at the JC level and was 22 just after the draft. He answered many of these questions with a big pro debut, getting to Hi-A and playing in instructs, where his defense at third base was better than expected as was his hit ability against pro-level pitching. The profile is now a prospect who’s a lefty stick who can play all four corner spots, but his progress slowed with an injury-marred 2019. He’s still a hair ahead of Trey Harris and Greyson Jenista in the bench power bat competition near the bottom of the list.

Walker is a big, athletic kid who’s always had an above average sinker — which got into the mid-90s deep into games — along with two good breaking balls and control. But his command, changeup, and the optimization of his tools kept him from reaching his potential as a starter. In 2019, the Braves moved him to the bullpen, and things went well, leading to a late-season cup of coffee. Walker leaned into the heavy sinker and the curveball and found something that works for him. The role is a groundball middle reliever who could also be a longman who goes multiple innings, but the upside is basically just a 40 FV if he gets there.

Paolini was known to most Northeast area scouts entering the spring of 2019, but as a kid who wasn’t good enough at the Area Code Games tryouts the summer before to go see again in the spring when the weather warmed up. Atlanta was one of the only teams that scouted him heavily; in face, many teams didn’t turn him in at all. The Braves came up with $600,000 to buy him out of a commitment to Elon as a pure tools bet.

He has above average power potential, easy plus speed, and an above average arm, along with the elements to hit, but not much of a track record against pro-level pitching yet, so this one may move slowly.

Jenista had mid-first round buzz at times leading up to his draft year, with a deceptively-athletic body that packed plus raw power, average speed, and an above average arm into a 6-foot-4, 240 pound frame. We dinged him at draft time for having too flat of a swing plane for his type of player, and cautioned that he may age quicker than other similarly-aged and tooled guys.

He made it to Double-A by age 22 in 2019, but the lack of in-game, over-the-fence-power, along with too many strikeouts as he’s reached the upper levels means that real changes need to be made soon to keep his prospect status. His results were stronger in the second half of 2019, and appeared to be BABIP-fueled, but the Braves saw some positive adjustments.

After two seasons at Northern Iowa Community College, which has produced a bunch of NFL players — including Kurt Warner — but never an MLB athlete, Ball transferred to Dallas Baptist for his junior year, and he raked. He followed up a .362/.487/.625 line at NIACC with .325/.443/.614 at DBU, then followed that up with a raucous summer in pro ball. Between his spring with the Patriots and summer with the Braves, Ball hit 35 bombs, though many came while he was in the GCL, crushing pitching that was beneath him. The power is real.

There’s skepticism surrounding the bat control, but Ball has the power to mis-hit balls into the gaps, or over the fence. We want to see him pushed quickly and see how the contact skills play against full-season pitching, but Atlanta may have something here.

Devito’s stuff was up after the draft. He was 90-94 when former FanGraphs’ Northeast correspondent Josh Herzenberg saw him during the spring, then he was up to 97 after he signed, like on the Cape the summer before. The command/control element is still on the starter/relief-only fringe, but if Devito’s pitch-quality improves a little bit he has a strong chance to be a three-pitch reliever.

Harris is a stocky stick of right-handed hitting dynamite, listed at just 5-foot-8. He was a 2018 senior sign who, after two bad underclass years, has performed at every stop. He could play a lefty-hitting bench outfield role.

Weigel had made tons of progress through college and the low minors, and was on track to possibly be a big league starter (or a late-inning reliever if the command didn’t come) until he needed Tommy John surgery as he got to Triple-A in 2017. He returned late in 2018 and in instructional league with velo that peaked in the mid-90’s, but he wasn’t all the way back yet. The Braves added him to the 40-man anyway, expecting his stuff to return and by the end of 2019, it had.

Weigel’s velo is back to pre-surgery levels, sitting 95 and hitting 99. His slider is above average while his curveball and changeup flash average and his command is fringy. He was best when in relief in Triple-A late in the year, and is likely a big league middle reliever with a little more in his toolbox than the average two-pitch bull in a china shop.

From his time at Vanderbilt through his 2018 pro season, Pfeifer was a reliever with four pitches and fringe command. His performance was never quite good enough to become a big league middle reliever, so as a last resort of sorts in his age 26/27 season, the Braves put him in the Hi-A rotation in 2019. His performance was fantastic, with comparable stuff to his relief self through the aid of pitch design (90-94, touching 95, a slider and curveball both flashing above average, with the changeup behind), and he made his way back to Triple-A in this new role. He was added to the 40-man roster this winter and may now be an inventory, multi-role big league piece if he can sustain in this role.

Owens was a smallish righty who looked likely to be a valuable college utility arm for Florida (up to 95, solid average breaking ball, some feel) until he hit 98 mph in a pre-draft All-Star game, at which point the Braves felt comfortable overpaying him in the 13th round for $547,500. He hit 99 mph in his pro debut and, similar to Victor Vodnik, will also flash a plus breaking ball at times with the newfound arm speed. He’s likely limited to short stints given his build, and the command hasn’t been quite dialed in since the velo bump.

By torching the Appy League during his first pro summer, Gorman laid to rest any concerns that his whiff-prone pre-draft spring was anything more than a hiccup caused by the whiplash of going from facing elite, showcase high schoolers (who he crushed) to soft-tossing, Arizona varsity pitchers. He struck out a lot (again) during the 2018 stretch run, when St. Louis pushed him to Low-A Peoria because he wasn’t being challenged in Johnson City. Sent back to Peoria for the first half of 2019, Gorman adjusted to full-season pitching and roasted the Midwest League to the tune of a .241/.344/.448 line, cutting his strikeout rate by eight percentage points. He was promoted to the Florida State League for the second half, and while his walk rate halved and his strikeout rate crept above 30% again, Gorman still managed to post an above-average line for that league as a 19-year-old. The strikeout issues will only become a real concern once Gorman stops showing an ability to adjust over a long period of time.

His huge power, derived from his imposing physicality and explosive hand speed, is likely to play in games because of the lift in Gorman’s swing and his feel for impacting the ball in the air. Because we’re talking about a teenager of considerable size, there’s a chance Gorman has to move off of third base at some point, but for now we’re cautiously optimistic about him staying there for the early part of his big league tenure. There are apt body comps to be made to either of the Seager brothers, while the offensive profile looks more like Miguel Sanó‘s.

A year ago, on the Cardinals list and in our Picks to Click article, we tabbed Carlson as one of the prospects in this org likely to break out. But even we didn’t expect he’d nearly go 20/20 and slug .518 at Double-A Springfield. Judging by the fervor this performance created among our more fantasy-focused readers, they may be wondering why we were ahead of the curve a year ago, but aren’t hitting the gas on Carlson’s evaluation now after the year he had. We certainly like him — Carlson is balanced and coordinated while hitting from both sides of the plate, his left-handed swing has gorgeous lift and finish, he has advanced bat control for a switch-hitter this age, he’s athletic and moves well for his size, and he has high-end makeup. But we have some questions about the ultimate ceiling.

Carlson is an average runner and a large dude for a 20-year-old. His instincts in center field are okay, but not good enough to overcome long speed that typically falls short at the position. Because of where we have his arm strength graded, we think he fits in left field or at first base. The TrackMan data we sourced also indicates that his 2019 line is a bit of a caricature. His average exit velo (about 88 mph) and rate of balls in play at 95 mph or higher (about 34%) are both right around the big league average, rather than exceptional. The in-office types we talk to about this kind of thing are in love with Carlson because he’s only 20, and they anticipate these things will improve, but visual evaluation of his build don’t suggest as much physical projection as is typical of someone this young, because he’s already a big guy. As a result, he was on the 50/55 FV line for us during the process of compiling this list. The league-average offensive production in left field has been lower than you might expect (it’s 100 wRC+ over the last five years) and Carlson might also be able to play a situational center field when the Cards are behind and need offense, as well as some first base. That versatility is valuable, so he tipped into the 55 FV range. But we think he’s closer to the line than one might conclude if they were just looking at his surface stats.

With January’s trade with Tampa Bay, the Cardinals rolled some of their seemingly unending, upper-level outfield depth into Libby, That means that between him and childhood friend Nolan Gorman, the Cardinals, who picked 19th in the 2018 draft, now have two of the players most teams had in the top five to seven spots on their pre-draft boards in the system.

Because Liberatore’s fastball has sinker movement, the growth of his changeup is going to be the most important aspect of his development, since those two pitches have similar movement, and will theoretically tunnel better. The results produced by his knockout curveball, which has all-world depth, may suffer because he doesn’t have an up-in-the-zone four-seamer to pair with it, but should Liberatore decide to get ahead of hitters by dumping that curveball into the zone, good luck to them. It’s the type of pitch that’s hard to hit even if you know it’s coming, but might be easy to lay off of, in the dirt, because its Loch Ness Monster hump is easy to identify out of the hand. All of the advanced pitchability stuff — Libby started learning a slider during his senior year of high school, he varies his timing home, and he’s likely to pitch backwards with the breaking balls — is here, too, and that’ll be important given the lack of a bat-missing fastball. The total package should result in an above-average big league starter.

When we began sourcing data on the Cardinals system, we weren’t aware of a max exit velocity for a teenager in excess of 109 mph (Kristian Robinson, Marco Luciano, Luis Toribio) — until we learned of Herrera’s. It was surprising considering Herrera is physically quite modest, and looked sluggish at times during the Fall league, but by that point he had played in three times as many games as he had the year before, and was likely exhausted. Regular season Herrera was a little leaner, twitchy, and athletic, and was an advanced defender with a mature approach at the plate. He also hit .286/.381/.423 as a 19-year-old catcher in the Midwest League. This guy checks all the proverbial boxes and looks like a well-rounded everyday catching prospect.

Arguably the most talented college arm in the 2019 draft, Thompson fell, at least in part, because of injury issues speckled throughout his amateur career. He was used pretty conservatively in a bullpen role after he signed for workload/health reasons, but expect the Cardinals to push him to the upper levels next year, as they often do with recently-drafted college arms.

The headline pitch here is the curveball, a deadly, mid-70s parabola much like Liberatore’s. Like Libby, Thompson’s fastball traits don’t fit perfectly with it and it probably won’t matter very much. The changeup is already quite good, a likely second out-pitch. Thompson gets down the mound well, his arm action is loose (though it comes through a little late), and he has east/west command of all his stuff. He’s a concerning injury risk, but has top 100 stuff.

Knizner’s 2019 was a great example of how the convergence of the PCL’s hitting environment and lively big league baseball affected statistics at that level. His .276/.357/.463 line was only good enough for a 99 wRC+, the lowest of his career. Long a contact-oriented doubles hitter with a very compact stroke, Knizner is perhaps not the sort of hitter who would have greatly benefitted from a bouncier ball. He’s still a much better hitter than most big league catchers, but he’s a bad receiver. For the last two years, we were hopeful Knizner would become a passable defender, if later than most, because he only started catching in his early 20s, but it still hasn’t happened. He and Yadier Molina are the only two catchers currently on the Cardinals’ 40-man, so it looks like he’s slated for some kind of timeshare, at least for his rookie season, the last of Yadi’s contract.

His value may be impacted by the implementation of robot umps, which would make Knizner poor receiving moot, but would also put more pressure on him to hit for some power since suddenly every gloveless backstop who can hit will suddenly be viable back there. Knizner’s bat-to-ball skills should make him a second-division regular in that scenario.

We’ve gone from thinking Cabrera was a high-probability middle relief piece with a shot at pitching high-leverage or multiple innings, to thinking either of those outcomes is likely, and that he has a shot at pitching in St. Louis’ rotation. He has premium lefty velocity, and two usable secondaries. In a vacuum, we prefer Cabrera’s changeup to his breaking ball, but his delivery is violent and deceptive, featuring a huge hook in the back (the flexibility in Cabrera’s upper back is incredible) and a huge stride home before the ball suddenly appears from a high three-quarters slot.

In 2017, the Cardinals traded away some of their international pool space for minor leaguers, including Thomas, who had a breakout 2018 at the plate. A high school shortstop, Thomas got a $750,000 bonus to sign with Toronto as a fifth rounder in 2014. He played some second and third base and outfield for the Jays before moving off the dirt entirely in 2017, and he’s quickly become a very good center field defender. He couldn’t quite repeat that 2018 burst — a .264/.333/.489 line between Double and Triple-A, including more home runs (27) than in his previous four seasons combined — in a 2019 shortened by a fractured wrist, but Thomas has good plate coverage that enables a pull-heavy approach, has mostly doubles power, and is fairly selective, and because he’s such a good center field defender, we think he’s a second-division regular there.

After Torres, who was acquired from Cleveland for Oscar Mercado during the summer of 2018, paved over rookie ball, the Cardinals skipped him over two levels, sending him right from the complex to Low-A in early-May. He struggled, striking out nearly 40% of the time, and after a couple of weeks the Cards hit the breaks and sent him down to Johnson City for the remainder of the summer. Torres bounced back in a huge way, and hit .286/.391/.527 in the Tennessee humidity.

This is a traditional, corner outfield projection prospect. Torres is an immense teenager built much like Franmil Reyes was at the same age. Torres has a chance to grow into similar power as he fills out, though hopefully he stays a little more agile than Reyes and is able to play better outfield defense. Some of the swing elements (how long the barrel is in the zone, the stride length) may need to change to max out the game power, but there’s middle-of-the-order thump here.

Fletcher emerged very early in the recruiting/scouting process as an elite prospect due to a power/speed combination that is rare, especially coming from Maine. He played at East Coast Pro, a major summer showcase, as an older-for-the-class member of the 2020 class, playing against 2019 prospects. He played well and reclassified to the 2019 class in March of that year after switching high schools. Clubs weren’t prepared and hadn’t scouted Fletcher intensely, with only a few months of rain-filled Maine high school games versus weak competition to make what was potentially a seven figure decision. Between having Scott Boras as his agent, a strong commitment to Vanderbilt, and the off-field drama surrounding his eligibility, some teams punted on Fletcher because they couldn’t get enough info to be comfortable by draft day.

The Cardinals were not one of those teams, but both they and more casually-engaged clubs saw flashes of plus raw power, speed, and arm strength. St. Louis popped him in the second round for an overslot $1.5 million deal and pushed him to the Appy League after nine good GCL games to get him under the lights and in a more professional game atmosphere, where Fletcher struggled a bit. The ceiling is sky high but we don’t have much reliable data, so the variance is very high at this point, too.

Finally, a healthy season for Fernandez, who pitched across four levels, including the big leagues, in 2019. He has two big league bat-missers in his upper-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup. The changeup doesn’t even need to be located toward the bottom of the zone to be effective since hitters, who are geared up for the heater, are so flummoxed by its speed and movement. You’ll see him freeze hitters with cambios near the top of the zone, and the pitch might be so dominant that Fernandez will be able to pitch high-leverage innings.

Oviedo looks the part of a mid-rotation starter. He’s a hulking 6-foot-6, body comps to a young Josh Beckett, throws hard, and flashes an above-average curveball and changeup. All of these components are present intermittently, but Oviedo just hasn’t leveled up as a strike-thrower yet. Unless his walk rates come down a little bit, he won’t be able to start. If he can’t, we’re hoping his fastball velo ticks up out of the bullpen so he has greater margin for error in the zone. We have him valued around where we had Alec Hansen valued coming out of college.

He doesn’t have Kolten Wong’s range, but in all other aspects of infield defense — hands, actions, arm utility — Sosa is the best defender on St. Louis’ 40-man. He projects as a versatile infield utility man.

Multiple wrist injuries made it impossible for Montero’s 2019 to get off the ground, so toss out his lousy 60-game Double-A statline. His body looked great in the Fall League, and he still has a shot to stay at third base long-term because he’s kept what used to be a big, softer body in check.

His approach, however, is a problem. During some of his Fall League starts, Montero saw five pitches over the course of an entire game. During the regular season, he averaged just shy of 2.5 pitches per plate appearance. For comparison’s sake, among big league hitters with at least 200 PAs in 2019, Willians Astudillo ranked last in pitchers per PA with 2.9; no other big leaguer was under three. From a hitting talent perspective — the bat speed, primarily — Montero has everyday upside, so he belongs ranked ahead of prospects who project to be lesser role players at best. But we’re weary of how swing-happy he is and think, at the very least, there will be growing pains as he climbs the minors and is forced to adjust to big league pitching.

Whitley and his Josh Collmenter-style delivery carved the upper levels in 2019, posting a 1.60 ERA mostly at Double- and Triple-A. He had a velocity uptick during the summer (93-96, touch 98) but it was down a bit during Whitley’s Fall League stint (more 92-93, touch 94 or 95). He lives at the top of the strike zone and gets his swings and misses there, while his secondary stuff gets help from his delivery, which puzzles opposing hitters. He has worked multiple innings, working against seven hitters over two frames when things go smoothly for him, but for now, we have him projected as being a good middle relief piece very soon, and maybe more if that peak velo comes back and sticks.

Locey had a rocky end of high school and beginning of college at Georgia, but emerged in a big way in 2019 as the most dependable starter for the Bulldogs down the stretch, ahead of banged-up possible 2020 first overall pick Emerson Hancock. Locey would hold mid-90s velo late into games, hitting 97 regularly and landing a solid average breaking ball that dev-minded folks in baseball think has more ceiling. His control is fine, but the command and changeup were both weaker points in a starting role, so relief is a natural fit without a change to that profile. His aggressive, bulldog approach is also conducive to shorter stints.

Baker’s amateur career was bedeviled by freak injuries — a left arm fracture and ligament and muscle tear, a few missed games after taking a bad hop to the face, a fractured fibula and torn ankle ligament while sliding into second base — which likely snuffed out our chances of watching him play two ways at TCU. Because Baker is the size of one of the Easter Island Moai statues, there’s some Zion Williamson-ish fear about his athletic longevity. But he has monstrous raw power and has performed when healthy (we’re not sweating a .390 SLG in the Florida State League), so he has a fair chance to hit at least enough to be a CJ Cron, Jesús Aguilar sort of performer.

Woodford was a widely-known prep prospect because he was teammates with Kyle Tucker at Plant. He was a sandwich rounder who fell off our lists as his fastball velocity ticked down (91-93, touch 95 around draft time, then 88-92 in the following few years) but has returned here (and to the 40-man) now that the velo’s not only back, but at times harder than its ever been. He’s a kitchen sink righty with below average control, a backend starter who needs a long relief partner.

Traded from Atlanta in exchange for Matt Adams, Yepez was a heavy-bodied, power-hitting prospect who’s passable at a few positions. His best fit is probably first base, but with a remade body, he also saw meaningful time at all four corners last year, which helps his likely big league profile of a lefty-mashing extra bat. Yepez’s calling card is his plus raw power, but he’s been dialing in his offensive approach to make more contact. He’s one of a number of corner-only righty power bats in the system with Baker, Montero, and Nunez.

This is the player in the system about whom the scouts and data most disagree. Scouts see an unathletic infielder, arguably positionless, without the power to make up for his defensive issues. But on paper, Urias has a .270/.360/.420 career line in the minors — after two DSL seasons with Texas, Urias’ rights were loaned and then sold outright to Diablos Rojos in Mexico City, where he hit .318/.402/.467 over five seasons before the Cardinals came calling in the spring of 2018 — and he’s hit well for two consecutive years at Double and Triple-A. His TrackMan data is strong (91 mph average exit velo, 47% of balls in play at 95 mph or more), and he plays an up-the-middle position. He’s an interesting sleeper, though we acknowledge there’s no margin for error here. Urias can only really play second base passably as he lacks the arm strength for the left side. He’ll either hit enough to be an everyday second baseman, or he won’t and will be very difficult to roster.

Mateo is the son of former big league infielder Benji Gil and, despite not being on the showcase circuit much in high school, looks primed to carve out a big league career as well. He’s a shortstop for now, but could slide over to second or third depending on how his body develops. He closed 2019 strong and his exit velos were also above average for his age and level. There may not be a plus tool on the card, but Gil has low-end regular upside.

Initially a bit of an afterthought (in our minds, anyway) in the Tommy Pham trade with Tampa Bay, Ramirez had a great 2019 as a multi-inning reliever at Double-A Springfield. He has the repertoire depth to pitch in that role in the big leagues, but his fastball has cut action rather than ride/carry, so it accidentally runs into barrels. That might be problematic, but on arm strength and the pitch mix, he’s pretty clearly a valuable long relief type.

Nunez became famous back in 2018 when he posted a god-like .415/.497/.774 line with 31 extra-base hits in 44 DSL games. He was bigger and stronger than most of the kids down there, so the industry was ultra-skeptical of that line. After a little time in Florida, two months after he turned 18, St. Louis sent him to Low-A to stress test the bat. Nunez flopped and was demoted to the Appy League later in the summer. He’s a big-bodied, projectionless, 1B/DH prospect who needs to mash all the way up the ladder.

A fourth round pick by Seattle in 2017, Elledge was traded to the Cardinals for Sam Tuivailala just over a year after he was drafted. He profiles as a two-pitch middle reliever.

Romeri was a slightly-over-slot 12th round pick in 2019 from a loaded IMG Academy prep squad that included Brennan Malone (first round), and Rece Hinds and Kendall Williams (both second round). Romeri was so below the radar on that team that many scouts didn’t have him turned in despite watching him numerous times on what was likely the most-scouted high school team in the country. The seventh hole hitter on a high school team is not usually where you find a prospect; He wasn’t on our pre-draft rankings either. Romeri is a solid average runner and thrower who profiles in right field, and his exit velos and OPS both stood out in his pro debut in the GCL. There’s a faint chance for a low-end regular but he’ll more likely profile as a part-time player.

Pallante was young for a college draftee (just 20 on draft day), and had a strong, two-year track record of starting at Irvine. He threw on the Cape and for Team USA, so he’d been seen by most everyone and wasn’t subject to the anti-small school bias. He has four pitches, including two quality breaking balls and a fastball that might play a little better than its velocity. He has a backend shot.

A $300,000 signee from 2017, Cruz has a traditional corner outfield profile. He has a projectable 6-foot-3 frame and a swing geared to lift the ball to his pull side. He could grow into plus, playable power; he’s likely a left field-only fit, so he’ll need to. He missed almost all of 2019 due to injury.

Gingery had Tommy John in March of 2018 before he was drafted, and finally took a pro mound in late-July of last year. He was 87-91, up to 92 in his lone outing before he blew out again and required a second TJ. Healthy Gingery had a nasty changeup and advanced command. He projected as a backend starter.

When the Cardinals signed Cruz, he was 21 and pitching for Sultanes de Monterrey in Mexico. He’s serviceable, non-40-man upper-level depth for now. His current control is likely a barrier to a solid, middle inning relief role, but Cruz has real stuff and we like him in an up-and-down role.

A downward bat path long undercut Williams’ in-game power despite his considerable raw juice. He had the second-highest average exit velo in this system and the lowest average launch angle, and this with a swing that’s better than it was two years ago. He has a shot to break out if there’s a relevant swing change; if not, a bench role is going to be tough to grab hold of because of the lack of other skills.

Roberts had one of the best breaking balls in the entire 2018 class, a two-plane Wiffle ball slider that was at least a plus pitch on draft day. But his stuff was down last year amid a weed suspension, and he’s already almost 24. What looked like a lock to be a quick-moving, breaking ball-heavy reliever now requires a bounce back.

Jones had a storied if somewhat tumultuous amateur career (he was an early-round prospect in high school but, like many after him, was convinced to go to UVA) that included a National Title and several fluctuations in the quality of his stuff. He’s now a sinkerball reliever (63% groundball rate).

Part of the Liberatore/Arozarena/José Martínez trade, Rodriguez was injured for almost all of 2019, so his report is the same as it was when he appeared on last year’s Rays list. It’s not abundantly clear whether Rodriguez will be able to catch as, at age 18, he’s already a pretty big, long-levered kid who was initially unsure if he even wanted to try it. But Rodriguez can really hit. He has excellent timing, bat control, and feel for all-fields contact, and he can open up and get his barrel on pitches inside. He might end up at first base or in an outfield corner, but he might hit enough to profile at those spots, and if he can catch, his ceiling is sizable.

Avelino has no idea where most of his pitches are going (he has 99 walks in 51 career innings) but he has big time arm strength for his age (94-99) and several other fastball traits that could make the offering dominant — even elite — if he ever becomes an even passable strike-thrower. The chances of that seem low considering how badly Avelino has struggled with it to this point, but his stuff is just too good to stick him in the honorable mention section.

Similar to the way Andres Gimenez skipped over short season ball (though, he also skipped over the GCL), the Mets pushed Mauricio to Low-A after he had spent just a year on the complex. He was three and a half years younger than the average Sally League player and was still hitting an impressive .283/.323/.381 before he had a lousy August. The exciting physical characteristics — a lanky, projectable frame, the sort you typically see on the mound, the hands, actions, feet, and arm strength for short, precocious feel to hit — shared by Mauricio’s franchise-altering shortstop predecessors, the stuff that had us deliriously excited about him before he even signed, are still present.

The explosiveness and physicality of cornerstone, power-hitting shortstops still percolates beneath the surface, which is fine because Mauricio will be 18 until April and it isn’t reasonable to expect that he’d already have grown into impact power. When most players his age are either in the midst of their freshman season of college or getting ready to start Extended Spring Training, he might be in the Florida State League. Because he’ll be so young and in a pitcher-friendly league, it’s very likely that a year from now, we’ll be ignoring a pretty lousy statline for contextual reasons. With another full year of data to consider, we now know Mauricio is a little swing-happy and that, even if that explosion arrives, he either needs to develop feel for lift or tweak the swing if all the power is to actualize. Hopefully we’re not living in the timeline where Mauricio outgrows shortstop and those two things remain issues. Switch-hitting shortstops with power, uh, don’t really exist. That Mauricio has a chance to be one means he may one day be the top overall prospect in baseball, and several outcomes short of that ideal are still very, very good.

We now have what you could say is a softer 50 on Gimenez. Defensively, at either short or second, Gimenez’s wide array of skills, especially his range (it’s less important than it used to be because of improved positioning, but Gimenez can really go get it) is going to make him a strong middle infield defender.

On offense, even though Gimenez spent 2019 all the way up at Double-A Binghamton, things are less clear. He looked physically overmatched against Double-A pitching, which is fine because he was only 20, but he was also chasing a lot and seemed doomed if he fell behind in counts because of it. The all-fields spray (lots of oppo doubles) that comes when Gimenez targets more hittable pitches is very promising. We’re not optimistic that any kind of impact power will ever come (he’ll golf one out to his pull side once in a while), but the hit tool and doubles would be plenty to profile everyday on the middle infield if Gimenez learns to be more selective.

The way Vientos’ strikeout/walk rates trended in 2019 combined with continued skepticism regarding his ability to stay at third base led some of our sources to express trepidation about where we had him on our 2019 summer top 100 update. But he also put up an above-average statline in full-season ball as a teenager and he has some of the most exciting, frame-based power projection in all the minors. He’s tied for the highest average exit velo among hitters on this list and he has room for another 20 pounds on the frame, which is likely to come since Vientos was one of the younger prospects in his draft class and is younger than 2019 first rounder, Brett Baty. Because we’re talking about a corner bat with strikeout/walk rate yellow flags, Vientos is a high-risk bat but the power gives him middle-of-the-order potential.

In an age when more and more teams are taking model-driven approaches to building a draft board, Baty’s age was such a unique trait that precedent couldn’t inform one much: he was 19.6 on draft day while some other Day One prospects were as young as 17.6. A player’s age relative to his peers is a predictive variable for pro success (younger is better) and Baty is older than a lot of 2018’s high school draftees, against whom we had pro performance to judge while Baty only had high school stats on draft day.

Baty compares quite closely to Cardinals 2018 first rounder and top 100 prospect Nolan Gorman: he’s big, strong, and has huge power and advanced feel to hit. He may not be an athletic fit at third base, especially long-term, and is at risk of moving to first, but his quicker-than-expected feet (he’s a standout hoops player as well) could help delay that. Baty essentially held serve in his first taste of pro ball and his 2020 season will go a long way to dictating his value, as another half-season of pro performance will wipe out all the pre-draft considerations.

Allan was one of the top pitchers in the 2019 prep class over the summer, then took a big step forward in the spring, touching the high-90s in every start after peaking in the mid-90s over the summer. His fastball and breaking ball were both anywhere from 60 to 70 grade pitches during the spring depending on the day and scout, while his changeup was a 55 at times over the summer, when he also sometimes flashed average command. If you put together the best elements from both versions of Allan, there’s a potential ace, but the worry is that either one or the other will the the actual outcome, which is still a solid mid-rotation type.

He’s not projectable and is an average athlete, so there are some limits on his upside. He had a rumored $4 million price tag in the draft, which many thought would push him to college, but he ended up changing his asking price and signing for $2.5 million in the third round after throwing a much higher number out to clubs that almost took him at multiple spots in the first. Mets brass are thrilled with their first draft under the new regime and some specifically think Allan is already the best prospect of the group. He could be a top 100 prospect by midseason if he continues his current streak of good health and performance, as his TrackMan figures are very strong.

Young catchers are notoriously slow to develop as they adjust to the physical and mental demands of the position, which often stymies their offensive production. But Alvarez’s first pro season was statistically impressive. He only played in 42 games, but he hit .312/.407/.510 (mostly in the Appy League) while playing very good defense and appearing more svelte and conditioned than he had as an amateur.

His swing (his front foot is down very early) could stand to be a little more athletic to take advantage of his movement skills, but he rotates hard anyway and his hitting posture enables him to lift pitches in various locations. The receiving, lateral mobility, and arm strength are all promising on the defensive side, too. Teen catchers are risky and often take forever to develop, but Alvarez’s track record of hitting extends back to amateur play, so we’re a little more comfortable here. We view him very similarly to the way we viewed Miguel Amaya a few years ago, except Amaya’s frame was more obviously projectable.

Working back from a year and a half of Tommy John rehab, both Szapucki’s in-game pitch count and velocity climbed as the summer burned on. He worked in 20 to 30-pitch stints for the first several weeks of the year before rounding into more traditional starter form late. His sinker and changeup have similar movement, which will benefit the change (which is just fine in a vacuum). The curveball, though, the pitch that enabled Szapucki’s earlier breakout, remains excellent. We’re hoping more mechanical consistency in season two back from TJ will yield better command, but even if this iteration of Szapucki is where things settle, that’ll still be a strong multi-inning relief piece if not a No. 4/5 starter.

Peterson was a known prep prospect as an underclassman in Colorado due to his 6-foot-6 frame and ability to touch 90 mph from the left side at an early age. Then he had two decent years at Oregon before he dominated as a junior, striking out 140 hitters and walking just 15 in 100 innings. He has never had a plus pitch, nor does he project to have one, and instead works in the low-90s with tough angle and great extension, and several other pitches. He doesn’t have high spin rates on his breaking stuff and pitches more to weak contact with a sinking, sometimes cutting changeup, looking like a steady, durable, No. 4/5 starter who we’ll see in the big leagues this year.

Tommy John surgery late in the fall of 2018 meant Kilome didn’t pitch at all last year, though he was throwing with effort in the bullpen late in September. He has shown a starter’s mix of pitches, especially during his brief time with the Mets (he was acquired from Philly for Asdrúbal Cabrera ahead of the 2018 deadline) when his strike throwing and changeup improved. Prior to that, he had been pretty raw for a pitcher his age and had begun to look like a bullpen arm, an outcome that became more likely due to the injury and his presence on New York’s 40-man. There’s a chance Kilome looks really good in the spring and the Mets decide to let him start while managing his workload, but we expect to see mid-90s heat and a great curveball out of the bullpen sometime in 2020.

As we sourced for this org list, we spoke with a scout who saw Newton play terribly for a week and still thought he belonged high on this list because his physical talent is so remarkable. This is an extreme risk hit tool prospect, the kind who sometimes tricks us into thinking relevant adjustments have been made and performs at upper levels only to flail at big league pitching (see: Brinson, Lewis), but also sometimes becomes Aaron Judge.

Newton is built like an SEC wide receiver, he already has sizable power and will likely grow into more, while also staying on the left side of the infield. He has a shot to be what we have Mauricio projected to be; a switch-hitting shortstop or third baseman with impact power. But Newton has run two consecutive years of strikeout rates up around 32% and the quality of his at-bats is wildly variable. He’s still growing into his body, so perhaps more reliable bat-to-ball skills will arrive once he does. Even if he cuts the K’s down to the 25% range, we could be talking about a valuable everyday big leaguer.

A slight dip in velo and a strike-throwing regression isn’t enough to slide Santos down the pref list at this point, not as his age, nor at his size, and especially not when you consider both. This is a giant teenager with a good arm and some breaking ball and changeup feel (for creating movement, not for locating) who was pushed hurriedly to an affiliate when he was still 17. The arm action looked a little less fluid and was a bit compromised last season, but we’re still on Santos as a long-term projection arm with an elite frame.

Wolf was a lower-end follow after the summer showcase circuit, then popped up during his draft spring as a high school senior. When making the rounds in Texas, Kiley ran into him with no background; Wolf sat 94-97 with plus life and a plus curveball while there were a couple dozen scouts in the house who were trying to double Wolf up with eventual first round pick Jackson Rutledge (both are based in the Houston area). Wolf’s frame and delivery aren’t ideal for a 200 inning type, but the stuff is loud, the arm is fresh, the velo is new, and there’s no track record of any trouble in the way of injuries, overuse, or walk rate, so at some point we’re just nitpicking.

Rodriguez lost some time to a hamstring strain last year and it may have masked his real athleticism for a while during an otherwise stellar first summer in the states. This is a very athletic, switch-hitting catcher with advanced feel for contact, and a few of the sources we spoke with about Rodriguez were actually most excited about his defense. The movement, receiving, and catch-and-throw skills are fine, but Rodriguez has also seen time at first base and in the outfield, so he might be a very interesting, multi-positional player. We have him valued where we had Rafael Marchan and Gabriel Moreno at the same stage.

Smith was a seventh rounder in 2018 out of Georgia. He’s a big lefty who sits around 90 with a three-pitch mix, but he was used in a number of roles in college, so nobody was really pounding the table for him. Well, maybe they should have been: he carved up Low-A after being drafted, then did the same to High-A and before pitching well at Double-A as a 22-year-old in his first full season. The stuff still isn’t great, but his slider flashes above average, his fastball has a solid spin rate and overall characteristics to go along with some deception and the feel to get the most out of his stuff. The intangibles seem to be driving the success here and the tools aren’t bad, so a big league look in 2020 or 2021 now seems likely.

This is one of, if not the highest variance prospects in the entire system. Unearthed in the Mets’ backyard as an overslot Day Three pick, Palmer surprised the industry by going to Kingsport and performing well above what was expected of him. We think there’s a gap between the contact performance (Palmer hit .250) and actual skill at this point, but that’s okay for such a lanky, cold-weather, out-of-nowhere high school prospect.

The measurable power Palmer generates on contact is shocking. He’s tied with Mark Vientos and Brett Baty for the highest average exit velo on this list and he’s arguably more physically projectable than either of them. His long-term defensive profile is still unclear, and Palmer’s ability to make contact and recognize offspeed stuff is raw. It’s possible he becomes a whiff-prone corner outfielder and falls off the list in two years, but he may also stay on the dirt and develop passable feel to hit and huge raw power.

Like Desmond Lindsay, who is a ways down this list, Hernandez is muscular, explosive, tightly-wound, and suffered a severe soft-tissue injury (a torn hamstring) that cost him most all of 2019. And so, the scouting report remains the same as it did on last year’s list: Hernandez runs well enough to stay in center field and he has sizable raw power for a teenager. The cement on the bod is pretty dry, and while we think that means limited power projection, it also probably means Hernandez stays in center. The exit velos on THE BOARD for both Hernandez and Lindsay are from the 2018 season, when they were healthy enough to generate sufficient data.

Dominguez was a known, and not all that highly-regarded, pitching prospect at the beginning of 2019. He was then a 17-year-old Venezuelan righty with some effort who sat 90-93, which is typically a $10,000 to $25,000 bonus pitcher. He was then 94-97 at an event in the summer, and teams sat up straight to reconsider him, but some clubs wanted to see it another time or two to make sure it wasn’t an anomaly. The Mets moved quickly, though Dominguez’s bonus, which we were told was $95,000, reflected that level of uncertainty.

Between when Dominguez was waiting for his contract to be approved and the end of Dominican instructs, he continued to sit in the mid-90s and hit 99, flashing a plus breaking ball at times. A scout who saw him during this period told us he would “blow the doors off” of the GCL this time next summer. He’s only thrown a handful of times since the velo spike and not even all of the Mets upper level decision makers have seen him yet, but the talent level is on par with a compensation or second round pick. There’s just significantly more uncertainty and less track record than even later-developing players taken in that range, like Josh Wolf.

Ventura began the summer in the DSL but had reached Kingsport by August. He doesn’t have the big frame to dream on but he’s very athletic, can spin it, his fastball has life, he already throws pretty hard, and he’ll show an occasional plus slider. You can go kind of wild projecting on his command because of the athleticism, but realistically he could be a No. 4/5 starter.

Cortes is unique in that he’s a switch-thrower who stood out early in his high school career and pitched along with playing all over the diamond, including an attempt at catching. He had plus bat control at that stage but his body has thickened and he’s lost some of his athleticism as he’s aged, though he still has good feel for the bat. He’s played a passable second base and otherwise would fit in left field or maybe at first, but the defensive value is minimal regardless. The calling card is plus raw power and feel to hit from the left side. There isn’t much else there, so a role as a Frank Catalanotto/Matt Stairs style platoon player or bench bat seems to be the most likely outcome.

While he isn’t your typical, huge-framed teenage arm, Cornielly has a lot of starter traits. He’s a plus athlete with a squeaky clean delivery, and advanced changeup feel and fastball command. The breaking ball needs work, but it’s a shape problem more than a raw spin one, and we think Cornielly is athletic enough to develop in this area. He has a realistic shot to be a No. 4/5 starter down the line, and a non-zero chance to develop a premium change, command, or both, and be more.

Humphrey’s Tommy John rehab started and stopped (more of the latter) last summer before he threw during the Fall League, where he sat in the low-90s on about a week’s rest. He showed a rare changeup but mostly worked off an 82-85 mph slider otherwise. He looked like a potential backend starter before the UCL blew out and all the setbacks started, but looked more like a “maybe” reliever in the fall. We like his chances of bouncing back but he’ll need to show it early in the spring and stay healthy.

This Alexander Ramirez and the Angels recently-signed Alexander Ramirez are going to be conflated with one another for the next several years because they have almost identical builds. They’re each classic, big-framed, power projection outfielders. This Ramirez runs well enough to try center field for a while, though we expect he’ll move to a corner eventually due to his size. Lever length may be an issue here.

Added to the 40-man during the offseason, Sanchez projects as a glove-oriented backup.

Toffey was a notable player on the national stage all the way back to high school and has been a similar guy for those last seven years. He’s got solid feel to hit and works counts with mediocre raw power and ordinary bat speed. He’s made offensive adjustments at each level but has excelled only once he’s been on the old side for prospects at each level, so the low-end regular chance has mostly dried up now. He’s a solid defender with a plus arm who probably fits best as a lefty platoon corner bat and is still on schedule to be that at some point in 2020 or 2021.

Valdez got a big bonus as part of the 2018 class and is a beefy power guy who we were a little skeptical of athletically, but he performed in the DSL and was pushed to the GCL last summer. The exit velos are a little lower than we expected given how big and strong Valdez is already.