Author Archive

Mock Draft 4.0: The Morning Of

With the MLB draft set to kickoff this evening, here is our latest mock, compiled using industry chatter from team personnel and player reps, our own in-person scouting, and educated guesses informed by how we believe individual teams have operated recently. For more information on the players mentioned below, head over to The BOARD, which we’ll continue to flood with player info over the next few days, as well as our first three mocks.

We’ll do one more names-only mock tonight just before the draft kicks off, and based on how we characterize the process surrounding a few of the picks, we expect some behind-the-scenes fireworks just before dinner time on the East Coast tonight.

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Clubs still think there’s a real chance for a cut-rate option here, with Vaughn and Bleday the two leading candidates and Witt less likely. This crew keeps a tight lid on things, and may not call someone’s adviser to really get down to brass tacks until sometime late this afternoon. Even the advisers of those potential backup options don’t yet know if they’re going 1-1, or how to handicap it. Contact hasn’t been made with Rutschman’s reps for weeks, which is also to be expected to maximize leverage. We think a lot of the buzz here is being mentioned as posturing, and that the odds are high the pick is just Rutschman; it’s something like an 80% chance, but by no means a slam dunk. It’s worth noting that some of the concerns on Rutschman’s medical are more likely to be flagged by Baltimore given their specific medical staff. Read the rest of this entry »


The Untitled McDongenhagen Project: Draft Preview Pod

UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 16

This is the 16th episode of a sorta weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men.

This episode is focused on Monday’s MLB Draft and our coverage of it, which is featured in the widget above and on THE BOARD.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 58 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Previewing the Prospects in the NCAA Regional Tournaments

Today the NCAA Baseball Tournament begins, which means you can tune in and cram for Monday’s MLB Draft by enjoying our country’s highest level of amateur baseball. While we think the entire tournament is worth checking out just for the baseball, we have compiled pro prospects playing in each regional below for readers to reference while they watch, and included some of our thoughts on those players. We’ve roughly ranked each regional in order of prospectyness. For more on these players, head over to THE BOARD. Seniors are indicated below by an asterisk, ages are on draft day of their draft class.

Pro Prospects – Fayetteville Regional
Rank Yr Player Pos Age School FV
3 2019 Andrew Vaughn 1B 21.2 Cal 50
7 2019 Nick Lodolo LHP 21.3 TCU 50
17 2020 Heston Kjerstad RF 21.3 Arkansas 45
26 2020 Casey Martin SS 21.2 Arkansas 45
51 2019 Dominic Fletcher RF 21.8 Arkansas 40+
75 2019 Isaiah Campbell RHP 21.8 Arkansas 40
80 2019 Matt Cronin LHP 21.7 Arkansas 40
92 2019 Korey Lee C 20.9 Cal 40
113 2019 Jack Kenley 2B 21.7 Arkansas 40
135 2019 Brandon Williamson LHP 21.2 TCU 40
HM 2019 Jared Horn RHP 20.9 Cal 35+
HM 2021 Patrick Wicklander LHP 21.4 Arkansas 35+
HM 2019 Jacob Kostyshock RHP 21.4 Arkansas 35
HM 2019 Cody Scroggins RHP 23.1 Arkansas 35
HM 2019 Quentin Selma 1B 21.0 Cal 35
HM 2019 Cameron Eden CF 21.2 Cal 35
HM 2019 Brandon McIlwain CF 21.0 Cal 35
HM 2020 Zebulon Vermillion RHP 21.6 Arkansas 35
HM 2020 Adam Oviedo SS 21.5 TCU 35
HM 2021 Christian Franklin LF 21.5 Arkansas 35

Horn and Williamson will face each other on Friday, while Lodolo is scheduled to throw Saturday. It sounds like Arkansas is also saving Campbell and Wicklander for later in the weekend, as their opening game is against the fourth seed in the bracket. This postseason could be a coming out party for any of the Razorback underclass hitters (Eric’s pick is Casey Martin) the way last postseason was for Adley Rutschman. We recommend eating at Arsaga’s at the Depot if you’re in town for this regional. Read the rest of this entry »


Introduction to the 2019 Draft BOARD

The 2019 MLB Draft is upon us, and a few threads that help comprise the full, 40-round tapestry have piqued our interest. The individual players involved, and the pirate crew of scouts and analysts who shape their organizations’ futures are, of course, annual focal points of the process. If you’re interested in that sort of thing, then you’ll also want to check out our prospect resource, The BOARD, which has player rankings and reports for this year’s draft class. It will be updated continuously over the next few days. You’ll also want to refer back to the draft order, pick values, and bonus pool amounts, which can be found here. For the latest gossip, please enjoy our recent mock draft.

Rounds one and two of the draft begin Monday, June 3 at 7pm Eastern. Day 2 includes rounds three through ten and begins Tuesday at 1pm; the final thirty rounds begin Wednesday at noon.

As is the case every year, this draft has some deeper themes and details. Here we outline some of the things we find fascinating, or that individuals who play a role in this process (amateur scouting personnel and player reps) are talking about.

Strategy Trends

Forward Thinking Now Means Tools
During the Moneyball era, traditional, scout-centric teams took upside/tools, while progressive teams leaned on statistical performance and perceived safety. These days with showcase stats, TrackMan and other advanced tech, better understanding of biomechanics, draft models, and the rising cost of elite major league free agents, the progressive clubs now feel comfortable taking upside players just like the traditional teams did. Tools can be quantified to some degree (i.e. spin rates, velo, exit velo, etc.) and, especially when a progressive scouting org is also a progressive player development org, teams are confident they can shape those tools into performance even if the player in question hasn’t performed. It moves the group of players valued due to their performance — think big conference college players with strong peripherals — down the board board if they don’t have sufficient physical talent. The Dodgers and Yankees, who both also seem less inclined to care about pitcher injury, are two prominent examples of teams who operate this way. Read the rest of this entry »


Pre-Draft Farm System Rankings

With the team prospect lists wrapping up today, multiple top 100 types having recently graduated, and the draft coming early next week, it’s a natural time to take a snapshot of where things stand in terms of the game’s farm system rankings.

We’ve taken Craig Edwards’ values for prospects by tier and totaled up what each of the 30 clubs had in their farm system over the winter. We also have a “Now” ranking with graduated prospects taken out (see the sidebar here for a full list of graduates), as well as a post-draft number based on our valuations of what teams’ draft picks are worth (in other words, our expectation of what we expect them to sign). Orgs are ranked based on the “Now” ranking; the total number of prospects and average per prospect value are also from that “Now” figure.

Offseason, Now, Post-Draft Meta Values, in Millions
# Team Offseason Graduated Now Count $/Player Post Draft Pick Value
1 Padres $504 $34 $470 54 $8.7 $524 $54
2 Rays $471 $28 $443 53 $8.4 $492 $49
3 Braves $354 $55 $299 27 $11.1 $352 $53
4 White Sox $278 $0 $278 30 $9.3 $336 $59
5 Astros $295 $22 $273 38 $7.2 $303 $30
6 Reds $263 $0 $263 29 $9.1 $311 $48
7 Twins $250 $4 $246 43 $5.7 $291 $45
8 Blue Jays $280 $38 $242 30 $8.1 $282 $41
9 Dodgers $262 $28 $234 34 $6.9 $274 $40
10 Pirates $226 $2 $224 35 $6.4 $270 $47
11 Angels $219 $0 $219 31 $7.1 $256 $37
12 D’Backs $201 $0 $201 32 $6.3 $272 $71
13 Indians $199 $0 $199 30 $6.6 $230 $32
14 Marlins $206 $23 $183 32 $5.7 $247 $64
15 Mariners $196 $21 $175 24 $7.3 $213 $38
16 A’s $169 $0 $169 30 $5.6 $200 $31
17 Brewers $167 $0 $167 34 $4.9 $194 $27
18 Rangers $158 $1 $157 37 $4.2 $209 $53
19 Tigers $163 $7 $156 24 $6.5 $209 $53
20 Phillies $151 $0 $151 34 $4.4 $183 $32
21 Cubs $143 $0 $143 31 $4.6 $174 $31
22 Orioles $135 $0 $135 32 $4.2 $217 $82
23 Mets $155 $28 $127 23 $5.5 $166 $39
24 Rockies $151 $28 $123 26 $4.7 $160 $37
25 Yankees $123 $0 $123 38 $3.2 $161 $38
26 Cardinals $156 $39 $117 35 $3.3 $151 $35
27 Giants $112 $0 $112 29 $3.8 $154 $42
28 Nationals $172 $62 $110 21 $5.2 $140 $31
29 Royals $74 $0 $74 27 $2.7 $140 $66
30 Red Sox $56 $6 $50 25 $2.0 $78 $28
Totals: $6,279 $426 $5,854 968 $6.0 $7,187 $1,334
Averages: $209 $14 $195 32 $240 $44

The previous version of this org ranking from the end of the 2018 season can be found here. Below is the grid with the breakdown of prospects by FV and club, so you can see the shape of a system:

Team FV Breakdown Grid
# Team Value Count 70 65 60 55 50 45+ 45 40+ 40 35+
1 Padres $470 54 1 3 8 4 3 5 20 10
2 Rays $443 53 1 1 2 5 2 9 5 20 8
3 Braves $299 27 4 4 1 3 2 10 3
4 White Sox $278 30 1 3 2 5 2 10 7
5 Astros $273 38 1 1 4 4 7 8 13
6 Reds $263 29 2 4 1 2 2 13 5
7 Twins $246 43 1 1 2 1 3 4 26 5
8 Blue Jays $242 30 1 1 1 1 4 13 9
9 Dodgers $234 34 1 2 1 2 3 5 13 7
10 Pirates $224 35 2 3 4 3 16 7
11 Angels $219 31 1 4 1 5 4 10 6
12 D’Backs $201 32 1 4 1 2 4 12 8
13 Indians $199 30 5 1 6 3 10 5
14 Marlins $183 32 1 2 2 5 2 13 7
15 Mariners $175 24 5 2 1 4 9 3
16 A’s $169 30 3 3 3 14 7
17 Brewers $167 34 1 2 3 1 21 6
18 Rangers $157 37 3 1 6 7 13 7
19 Tigers $156 24 1 3 1 3 1 12 3
20 Phillies $151 34 1 2 2 4 2 10 13
21 Cubs $143 31 3 1 4 2 21
22 Orioles $135 32 3 6 2 13 8
23 Mets $127 23 3 1 2 3 10 4
24 Rockies $123 26 1 1 4 5 11 4
25 Yankees $123 38 1 3 7 3 19 5
26 Cardinals $117 35 2 1 3 26 3
27 Giants $112 29 1 2 2 6 11 7
28 Nationals $110 21 1 1 1 1 8 9
29 Royals $74 27 3 5 3 9 7
30 Red Sox $50 25 2 5 14 4

There is some wiggle room in the team rankings, as you could argue that a team with a couple million dollars less in value, but with that value concentrated in many fewer prospects, actually has more trade value. As a thought exercise, you’d want a $100 million prospect more than 100 $1 million prospects, which this ranking would technically call equal. Exactly where that cutoff lies and what the discount rate would be for a multi-player package isn’t clear just yet. Would you need $120 million of value in two prospects to part with one $100 million prospect? How much would you need for a three player package? These are questions we plan on answering down the road.

There will be an update moving the FV of dozens of prospects right after the draft, and draftees who haven’t yet signed but who we expect to sign (essentially all top 10 round picks) will also be added right away. With that in mind, because THE BOARD will change in a significant way right after the draft, we wanted to capture how things looked both during the winter and in this pre-draft, pre-trade deadline moment. At some point soon after the draft concludes, we’ll have dynamic farm rankings on THE BOARD that will update whenever we change a pro prospect’s FV, which will happen frequently after this first update goes live.


Top 27 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Colorado Rockies. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Rockies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Brendan Rodgers 22.8 MLB SS 2019 55
2 Garrett Hampson 24.6 MLB 2B 2019 50
3 Peter Lambert 22.1 AAA RHP 2019 50
4 Ryan Rolison 21.9 A+ LHP 2021 45
5 Colton Welker 21.6 AA 1B 2021 45
6 Ryan Vilade 20.3 A+ SS 2022 45
7 Tyler Nevin 22.0 AA 1B 2021 45
8 Grant Lavigne 19.8 A 1B 2022 40+
9 Terrin Vavra 22.0 A 2B 2021 40+
10 Ryan Castellani 23.2 AAA RHP 2020 40+
11 Riley Pint 21.6 A RHP 2021 40+
12 Julio Carreras 19.4 R SS 2023 40+
13 Helcris Olivarez 18.8 R LHP 2023 40
14 Vince Fernandez 23.8 AA LF 2020 40
15 Breiling Eusebio 22.6 A LHP 2021 40
16 Jesus Tinoco 24.1 AAA RHP 2019 40
17 Yency Almonte 25.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
18 Ronaiker Palma 19.4 R C 2023 40
19 Ryan Feltner 22.7 A RHP 2021 40
20 Josh Fuentes 26.3 MLB 3B 2019 40
21 Tommy Doyle 23.1 A+ RHP 2019 40
22 Ben Bowden 24.6 AA LHP 2019 40
23 Robert Tyler 23.9 A+ RHP 2019 40
24 Fadriel Cruz 18.5 R 2B 2024 35+
25 Ezequiel Tovar 17.8 R SS 2024 35+
26 Eddy Diaz 19.3 R 2B 2023 35+
27 Justin Lawrence 24.5 AAA RHP 2020 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Lake Mary HS (FL) (COL)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 60/60 45/55 50/45 40/50 55/55

Rodgers stood out early in his high school career outside Orlando, FL as a regular on the showcase circuit who was often the best player on the field at high profile events while also being the youngest. He had mostly solid average tools and good feel through the middle of his prep career. Then in his senior year, the arm strength, raw power, and bat speed all became plus, and he was the odds on favorite to go first overall. But Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, and fellow Florida prep hitter Kyle Tucker all took steps forward in the spring, and the Rockies were able to get Rodgers third overall.

In pro ball, Rodgers has benefitted form the Rockies’ affiliates being extreme hitters’ environments, which has mostly obscured in the surface stats the fact that his pitch selection is below average. It improved a bit in his second taste of Double-A in 2018, then became an issue again in his late-season promotion to Triple-A. He’s fringy at shortstop and as a runner, so most scouts see him sliding over to second base long-term, but he’s good enough to play shortstop everyday if a club doesn’t have better options and focuses on shifting and positioning around him. There’s enough here that it’s likely Rodgers is a solid everyday player of some sort in 2020, but he may not be the star that some have anticipated.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Long Beach State (COL)
Age 24.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 40/40 40/40 70/70 45/50 50/50

Hampson was a star at Long Beach State and a mainstay on the Team USA collegiate national team. Scouts doubted he’d stay at shortstop and were worried he wouldn’t have enough power to play second base, which is largely why Hampson fell to the third round of his draft despite three years of strong performance.

He’s hit for more power in pro ball than he ever did in college, probably because Long Beach’s marine layer makes it more difficult to hit for power there, and also because the Rockies affiliates are all launching pads. It’s hard to conclude that Hampson’s minor league power output (.457 SLG, mostly via doubles and triples) won’t continue because his future home is going to be Coors Field. He has also stolen way more bases as a pro than he did in college, peaking with 51 steals in 2017, and 38 last year. Rockies prospects are encouraged to run, but Hampson is indeed a 70 runner and will add value on big league basepaths. Though it’s unclear what the Rockies will do about the Daniel MurphyIan DesmondRyan McMahon logjam that spills over into second base (not to mention Brendan Rodgers’ recent call-up), Hampson seems like a good bet to be a solid everyday player for someone.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from San Dimas HS (CA) (COL)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 50/55 55/55 45/55 90-94 / 95

Like clockwork, Lambert has taken his turn in a Rockies minor league rotation every fifth (or sixth, or seventh, depending on off days) day since he signed. He’s also a robotic strike-thrower and has walked just 5% of hitters he has faced as a pro. Lambert has basically been this way since high school, when he was just too advanced, even for SoCal high schoolers. Nothing he throws is plus, though you could argue that the fastball is due to its odd approach angle. It sits in the mid-90s and lives in the top part of the strike zone, riding in on the hands of righties. His changeup is average, flashing above, and Lambert has long deployed it with veteran cunning, and he’ll run it back onto the glove-side corner of the plate for looking strikes.

He’s a hyper-efficient strike-thrower with a four-pitch mix, a high-probability fourth starter with little likely upside beyond that.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Ole Miss (COL)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/55 35/45 90-94 / 96

Rolison was a big name out of high school, reportedly turning down seven figures to go to Ole Miss knowing he would be an eligible sophomore due to his age. He had an up-and-down sophomore spring. Rolison came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season, then slowly regressed. Scouts thought he needed a delivery adjustment in to make him more direct to the plate, a way to improve his fastball control. They also thought he was too reliant on his curveball. To that point, hitters late in the season would sit on the pitch, knowing he had trouble locating his fastball and that he barely threw his changeup. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

Since being drafted, Rolison has worked more frequently with all three of his pitches, throwing 66% of his pitches for strikes, and his velocity has remained in the 92-94 range even as he throws every fifth day (mostly) rather than once a week. He could end up with three above-average pitches and be a No. 4 or No. 4/5 starter.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) (COL)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 55/60 45/55 35/30 40/45 55/55

The caveat surrounding amateur prospects like the one Welker was — big-bodied, risk of first base-only, limited power projection — is that they need to hit all the way up the minor league ladder for teams to value them, and Welker has done exactly that. He’s a .333 career hitter and has above-average raw power that manifests itself as doubles, largely because Welker is a free swinger who relies on his feel to hit to make contact rather than hunting pitches he can drive. He remains a tenuous bet to stay at third base, at best projecting as a 50 glove there for some teams, while he’s below average in our estimation. He’s a college-aged hitter performing at Double-A, and is a summer top 100 candidate if a majority of teams start to consider him a viable third baseman.

6. Ryan Vilade, SS
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Stillwater HS (OK) (COL)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 194 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/40 45/40 45/50 55/55

Vilade has not developed as expected to this point. We anticipated he’d move quickly to third base in pro ball, but hit for enough power to overcome it. Instead, he has held serve a shortstop and only just begun to see time at third, but has struggled to get to his considerable raw power in games. His lower half usage has improved, but Vilade’s bat still has downward entry into the hitting zone and he doesn’t extend well through contact. He has a nearly 50% groundball rate as a pro and ends up pushing a lot of contact the other way. There’s ceiling here because of Vilade’s shot to stay at short and adjust his way into game power, but there’s a low floor if he moves to third and can’t make tweaks.

7. Tyler Nevin, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Poway HS (CA) (COL)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 50/55 40/45 35/35 40/45 50/50

It’s hard to find scouts and teams who are all in on Nevin because a) he’s been hurt a lot and b) he profiles as a hit-over-power first baseman. Lean but big-framed, Nevin lacks the lateral agility to be anything more than a 40 or 45 defender at third base. We’ve seen him hit oppo homers but it comes from quality, barreled contact rather than raw strength and power. It’s an atypical offensive recipe for a first base prospect, and it’s rare for contact-centric first baseman to work out, especially when they hit right-handed. Teams have him evaluated as a corner infield tweener who either hits enough to be a regular or ends up on a bench.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Bedford HS (NH) (COL)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 30/55 40/35 45/50 50/50

After he looked just okay against his elite peers on the summer showcase circuit, Lavigne generated a ton of buzz as a senior the following spring. Northeast popup high schoolers have a dubious track record because they spend all spring mashing bad high school pitching, but lots of teams were in on Lavigne’s spike in power and thought he fit in the second tier of high school hitting prospects in the draft behind the likes of Nolan Gorman and Jarred Kelenic.

Lavigne has not shown that kind of power with the wooden bats in pro ball and his exit velos are actually a bit below big league average, though that’s less worrisome considering his age. He’s a first base-only defender and needs to absolutely mash to profile. We’re cautiously optimistic that he can do it, but he’s out of the gate a little slower than we anticipated.

9. Terrin Vavra, 2B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Minnesota (COL)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/50 35/50 45/45 45/50 50/50

Vavra had a statistical breakout during his junior year at Minnesota — .386/.455/.614 with 10 homers, everything way up from his sophomore year — and ended up going on the high end of the third to fifth round range in which teams were considering him. He’s a patient hitter with an athletic swing who gets the most out of his slight build without often compromising his feel for contact. One source we spoke with thinks his swing is kind of grooved, but everyone else thinks he’s going to hit, have doubles power, and reach base at an above-average clip. That could play everyday if Vavra sticks at either shortstop or second base, which is where he’s seen time thus far in pro ball, but amateur evaluators thought he may ultimately end up at third base. A realistic outcome, should he shift to third, is that of a versatile lefty utility bat, but Vavra has a shot to be an everyday player.

10. Ryan Castellani, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Brophy Prep (AZ) (COL)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 193 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/45 50/55 40/45 91-94 / 96

At times Castellani looks like a mid-rotation starter, and at others he’s too wild to be effective. His tailing low-90s fastball has movement that mimics that of his well-located changeups, and Castellani’s slider has good length and bite away from right-handed hitters. He could garner whiffs with any of those pitches throughout a start. He doesn’t often get into counts where the changeup can be used, and he’s more likely to work back into counts with breaking stuff, often with his curveball.

11. Riley Pint, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS) (COL)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/55 70/70 50/55 20/30 97-99 / 102

It is not enough to say that Pint is having issues with control. Even pitchers walking guys at a 10% clip or worse face legitimate questions about their ability to start, and sometimes their ability to pitch in the big leagues at all. Pint is walking more than 30% of the hitters he faces right now, and has been moved to the Low-A bullpen. He simply can’t be a big leaguer with this kind of wildness, but his stuff remains incredible, among the best in the minors.

Through these struggles, Pint has continued to throw in the upper-90s with one of the harder power curveballs on the planet. He has top of the rotation stuff, but even those in amateur scouting who thought his delivery was too violent to repeat (which would make it tough to start) did not think Pint’s strike-throwing issues would be this much of a problem. We’d still take him ahead of relief-only types in this class because the stuff is so good, teams felt good about his makeup before the draft, and Pint is still pretty young. With time, he’s pretty likely to figure something out, though it’s suddenly very likely to be in some kind of bullpen role.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 166 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 40/50 20/40 60/60 45/55 55/60

Carreras’ swing needs work. His stride and bat path both have problems, but he swings hard and has promising hand-eye coordination and bat control despite his current issues. Additionally, Carreras has a lean, projectable frame, he’s a plus runner and athletic infield defender who already has experience at multiple positions, and he has above-average bat speed. Some of the mechanical components in the batters box will need to improve, but the raw material here is exciting. Most players this age are older high school or junior college draft prospects. Measured against amateur players his age, Carreras would probably go in the top 50 picks.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 192 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 30/45 30/45 92-95 / 96

Olivarez has had trouble throwing strikes during at least a few of his Extended starts, but he has enviable stuff and physical projection for a teenage lefty. He’s been sitting in the mid-90s this spring and will flash the occasional plus curveball, though the curve has so much velocity separation from the heater that it may be easy for upper-level hitters to lay off. Though he has an ideal frame and his delivery has a beautiful finish, with his rear leg flying up toward the sky à la Cole Hamels as Olivarez follows through, he doesn’t repeat yet, and his control is quite rough as a result. There’s a sizable developmental gap between where Olivarez is now and where he’d need to be to profile as a starting pitching prospect, but he’s young and has traits (velo, spin, frame) coveted in this age group.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from UC Riverside (COL)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 40/55 45/40 45/50 40/40

Fernandez is purported to have been one of Texas’ PTBNL options in the Jonathan Lucroy trade, and he’s outhit Pedro Gonzalez (whom the Rangers ended up taking) to this point, to the tune of a .275/.365/.520 career line. He’s performed up through Double-A, albeit as a slightly old-for-the-level prospect and in hitter-friendly environs. Fernandez strikes out a lot and he only fits in left field, but he is the youngest and most impressive statistical performer of a large group of lefty outfield power hitters in this system. They all realistically project as the larger half of a corner platoon.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/55 40/45 89-94 / 96

Eusebio had a breakout 2017, then blew out his elbow early in 2018. He’s back throwing bullpens as this list goes to publication. The flashes of brilliance he showed during 2017 Extended indicated a potential No. 4 starter future, as Eusebio’s fastball would creep into the mid-90s and he’d show you a good change and breaking ball. He casts a lot of his pitches to his arm side and mechanical consistency and command are the biggest parts of his development, as he’ll need to improve in that area to remain a starter. Of course, that’s assuming his pre-surgery stuff returns.

16. Jesus Tinoco, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 263 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/55 40/40 40/40 93-95 / 97

Tinoco has taken his four-pitch mix to the bullpen. His fastball is hard and comes in at a very tough angle while his slider and curveball each flash plus, though they’re sometimes (especially the curve) easy to identify out of his hand, and he doesn’t miss as many bats as is typical for someone with this kind of power stuff. Tinoco has had some injury issues, but the relief role may help keep him healthier moving forward. He should debut at some point this season.

17. Yency Almonte, RHP
Drafted: 17th Round, 2012 from Columbia HS (FL) (LAA)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 45/50 40/45 93-96 / 97

Almonte has moved to the bullpen and upped the usage of his mid-90s fastball and above-average slider. He’s a big league-ready relief piece.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (COL)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 40/40 45/55 60/60

He’s quite little, but Palma is an athletic backstop with catch and throw skills, as well as advanced feel for contact. He’s twitchy and mobile, which bodes well for his ball-blocking future, and he’s a fine receiver and pitch framer already, though he hasn’t caught a lot of big league-quality stuff yet. It’s possible the physical grind of catching will take an outsized toll on Palma’s little body and he won’t hit enough to be anything, but on tools, at the very least, he looks like a good backup catching prospect.

19. Ryan Feltner, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Ohio State (COL)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 50/55 35/40 92-95 / 97

Feltner spent a chunk of his college career in the bullpen, and he projects in a big league relief role for most pro teams. His arm action is quite long, and while he can bully hitters with his fastball in the zone, he lacks precise command of his stuff. Feltner throws hard, though, and his changeup has big time arm side movement. It’s going to miss big league bats, but an average, slurvy breaking ball likely won’t be able to unless he can start to put it where he wants to more exactly. Unlike most of the other pitching prospects in this system, Feltner hasn’t had a myriad of injury issues and is still being developed as a starter.

20. Josh Fuentes, 3B
(COL)
Age 26.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 209 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 50/50 40/40 40/40 55/55

Fuentes is a 3B/1B with plus power and some swing and miss issues, problems that will likely relegate him to bench/platoon duty in the big leagues.

21. Tommy Doyle, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Virginia (COL)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 45/50 95-97 / 96

The Rockies made Doyle their second consecutive second round college reliever in 2017 and after his velocity was way down just after his draft, he has since been as advertised. Mid-90s fastball, plus slider, a typical middle relief fit. He’s on pace to help the Rockies bullpen next year.

22. Ben Bowden, LHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Vanderbilt (COL)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 40/40 92-95 / 96

Some teams thought Bowden had been buried by the pitching depth at Vanderbilt and might be able to start in pro ball. A second round pick and $1.6 million bonus were indicators that the Rockies might be one of them but, perhaps in part due to injury, he’s only pitched in relief as a pro. He has a mid-90s sinker and plus changeup, which should enable him to pitch in middle relief.

23. Robert Tyler, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Georgia (COL)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 40/45 55/60 30/40 96-97 / 98

Tyler has a long arm action and he’s had injury issues dating back to college, but he throws in the mid-90s and has a plus changeup, so he’s likely to be a solid reliever.

35+ FV Prospects

24. Fadriel Cruz, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 18.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Of all the players signed during the 2017 July 2 span, Cruz had the most promising feel to hit. He’s a lefty infield bat with natural feel for lift, a projectable frame, and a good chance of staying at second base, though he’ll probably only be okay there.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (COL)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 162 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Lots of Rockies prospects are two-year DSL guys by virtue of the fact that the Rockies have no AZL team, but Tovar is so physically immature that he’d probably be of that ilk anyway. He does have some feel to hit from both sides of the plate and his swing has some natural lift when he’s swinging left-handed, but he’d have to get much stronger for that to matter at all. He has plus hands and infield footwork and will likely grow into enough arm strength for the left side. It’ll likely be a long time before he’s anything at all, and he may end up as a utility infielder at best, but switch-hitting middle infield fits typically find big league roles.

26. Eddy Diaz, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Cuba (COL)
Age 19.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 171 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Diaz is the first Cuban amateur ever signed by Colorado. He’s an athletic, instinctive middle infield prospect with modest physical projection and promising bat to ball skills. He has all-fields feel for contact and will likely be a hit-over-power offensive player by a good margin. He’s seen action all over the infield but the bat might only profile at shortstop in an everyday capacity. He’s more likely a utility type.

27. Justin Lawrence, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2015 from Daytona State JC (FL) (COL)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lawrence is a side-armer with a tailing, upper-90s fastball and sweeping slider. It’s late-inning stuff, but too often Lawrence struggles with control and pitch execution. It needs to improve if he’s to lock down a big league bullpen role at all, but there’s ceiling here due to the stuff.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Vanilla Pitchability
Alfredo Garcia, LHP
Will Gaddis, RHP
Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP

All of these guys project to be able to take a turn in a rotation if needed, and some may cement themselves as backend starter types. Garcia is 19 and missing bats at Low-A while sitting 90-93 with an average changeup and curveball. He generates plus-plus extension. Gaddis has 45 stuff and had 60 command projection as an amateur, but the strikes have backed up. Kilkenny had Tommy John last summer and may not toe a pro affiliate’s mound until he’s 23 next year.

Young Developmental Sleepers
Bladdy Restutiyo, INF
Walking Cabrera, RF
Daniel Montano, OF
Yolki Pena, OF
Shael Mendoza, 2B
Cristopher Navarro, SS

Restutiyo is an athletic, projectable infielder who is currently playing several positions. Cabrera is a traditional right field profile with some power, arm strength, and a big, skinny frame that should add lots of good mass. Pena is just a physical projection teenager who also walked a lot last year. Montano has quick hitter’s hands but may not do enough with the bat to profile in a corner. Mendoza has pop but has regressed on defense; Navarro has a good glove but has regressed with the bat.

Bench Types
Dom Nunez, C
Yonathan Daza, OF
Sam Hilliard, OF
Roberto Ramos, 1B
Brian Mundell, 1B

Nunez is crushing Triple-A. He can catch, he walks, and the rest of his tools are 40s. Hilliard has huge power but can’t touch lefties at all. Ramos and Mundell have Quad-A traits.

Relievers
Rico Garcia, RHP
Reid Humphreys, RHP
Raymells Rosa, RHP
Alfredo Martinez, RHP
Shelby Lackey, RHP

Garcia is starting right now, but his 93-96 and average secondaries project in the bullpen. Humphreys sits 92-95 and has an average breaking ball. Rosa is a loose, athletic 21-year-old who sits 93-94 with an average breaker. Martinez touches 96 and has an above-average curveball. Lackey was a late round draft pick who has been up to 98.

System Overview

The list of recent, early-round Rockies pitcher draftees is terrifying. Peter Lambert is working out. Pint is teetering. David Hill, Javier Medina, Mike Nikorak, Robert Tyler, Mitch Kilkenny, and Ben Bowden have all had injury problems, and 2017 fourth rounder Pearson McMahan is listed on milb.com as having been released already. That’s a lot of misses early in the last few drafts. On some level, this is damning. But look at the 40-man roster and you’ll see that an overwhelming majority of the talent on a competitive club was developed from within. Are the Rockies good at this or not? It depends on how you look at it.

They frustrate scouts, though. The Rockies are notoriously difficult to ply information from, even when it seems logical and in their interest to disseminate that info — like accurate rosters for the backfields, pitching probables, etc. — in the minds of opposing scouts. Is it in a team’s best interest for other teams to like their prospects? Scouts would say yes, but the Rockies don’t always behave as though they think that’s true.

Can we identify talent acquisition trends? The pitchability college arm has been a popular early Day 2 option for Colorado, though it hasn’t really yielded much lately. Up-the-middle performers have panned out well (Hampson, Rodgers, Vilade, and Vavra look good). Last year’s DSL group, which is currently in extended spring training, is deep and interesting. One or two players from that group could emerge as a 45 FV or better this year, though the lack of an AZL affiliate means this group will either need to face Pioneer League pitching or head back to the DSL for the summer, even though they’re age-appropriate for Arizona.


Mock Draft 3.0 – Two Rounds

Here is our latest mock draft, compiled using industry chatter from team personnel and player reps, our own in-person scouting, and educated guesses informed by how we believe individual teams have operated recently. For more information on the players mentioned below, head over to The BOARD, which we’ll continue to flood with player info in the coming days, as well as our first two mocks. New Jersey prep RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt commit, son of Al Leiter) is the only player who definitely belongs in the top 78 picks on talent that isn’t in this projection, as he’s the most likely top talent to go to college based on his $4+ million asking price.

We’ll do two more mock before Day 1 of the draft kicks off — one on Monday morning, and a bare bones list of names shortly before the draft begins that evening. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 32 Prospects: Arizona Diamondbacks

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Diamondbacks Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Jazz Chisholm 21.3 AA SS 2022 55
2 Daulton Varsho 22.9 AA C 2021 50
3 Jon Duplantier 24.9 MLB RHP 2019 50
4 Taylor Widener 24.6 AAA RHP 2019 50
5 Kristian Robinson 18.5 R CF 2023 50
6 Geraldo Perdomo 19.6 A SS 2022 45+
7 Alek Thomas 19.1 A CF 2022 45
8 Alvin Guzman 17.6 R CF 2024 45
9 Liover Peguero 18.4 R SS 2024 40+
10 Matt Tabor 20.9 A RHP 2022 40+
11 Blaze Alexander 20.0 A SS 2022 40+
12 Jake McCarthy 21.8 A+ CF 2021 40+
13 Domingo Leyba 23.7 AAA 2B 2019 40
14 Andy Young 25.0 AA 2B 2020 40
15 Wilderd Patino 17.9 R CF 2023 40
16 Luis Frias 21.0 A- RHP 2022 40
17 Josh Green 23.7 A+ RHP 2021 40
18 Taylor Clarke 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
19 Yoan Lopez 26.4 MLB RHP 2019 40
20 Drew Ellis 23.5 AA 3B 2021 40
21 Pavin Smith 23.3 AA 1B 2020 40
22 Eduardo Diaz 21.9 A CF 2022 40
23 Emilio Vargas 22.8 AA RHP 2020 40
24 Kevin Ginkel 25.2 AAA RHP 2019 40
25 Jhosmer Alvarez 17.9 R RHP 2023 35+
26 Matt Mercer 22.7 A+ RHP 2022 35+
27 Jackson Goddard 22.5 A RHP 2022 35+
28 Jorge Barrosa 18.3 R CF 2023 35+
29 Matt Peacock 25.3 AA RHP 2020 35+
30 Ryan Weiss 22.5 A RHP 2021 35+
31 Tyler Holton 23.0 R LHP 2022 35+
32 Justin Lewis 23.7 A RHP 2021 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Bahamas (ARI)
Age 21.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/55 40/55 55/55 50/55 55/55

Few infielders in the minors have Jazz’s bat speed, and even fewer have his swagger and flare. Though his high-effort hacks detract from his ability to make contact, Chisholm has shocking power for someone his size. When he really cuts it loose (which is often), he rotates with a violence and explosion reminiscent of Javier Baez and, like Baez, Chisholm is a high-risk prospect whose all-or-nothing style of hitting might ultimately be his undoing.

He has a one-note approach that mostly consists of him trying to ambush first-pitch fastballs. He’ll take some ugly swings when he’s cheating on a heater and instead gets something offspeed, though he has the bat control to put these balls in play if they’re near the zone. His strikeout rate (29% for his career) in undoubtedly a red flag, but because Chisholm is such a clean fit at shortstop (plus range, actions, and arm), he has some wiggle room on the offensive side, and shortstops with this kind of pop don’t exactly grow on trees. There’s star ceiling here, but also volcanic instability.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Wisconsin-Milwaukee (ARI)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/50 40/45 55/55 40/45 45/45

The list of catchers with speed comparable to Varsho’s is pretty short. J.T. Realmuto and Jorge Alfaro are two current examples, but Varsho reaches a top speed faster than either of them, and is an actual threat to steal bases. He’s also a doubles machine with natural feel for gap-to-gap contact, and if soft liners trickle between outfielders, Varsho can turn those into hustle doubles.

He remains a below-average receiver and often has trouble firmly squeezing balls in his glove, at times struggling to block breaking stuff in the dirt. Because Varsho is an above-average athlete, most scouts think these aspects of catching will become viable in time and that Varsho may just be behind in this regard due to his cold weather, small school background. His fringe arm strength plays up on scouts’ stopwatches because he’s very quick out of his crouch, so Dbacks games won’t turn into track meets with him behind the plate. He has a good chance to be an offensive-minded, everyday catcher.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Rice (ARI)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 50/50 45/55 50/55 91-96 / 97

Duplantier had been injury free since college (when he dealt with shoulder problems), until 2018, when he had hamstring issues in the spring, and biceps tendinitis later in the summer. The lost innings resulted in an Arizona Fall League stint, during which Duplantier was arguably the best non-Whitley pitching prospect who was a lock to start. Despite the biceps issue, his velocity was fine in the fall. Duplantier sits 93-96 and makes heavy use of three good secondary pitches. The horizontal action on his slider only plays away from righties, but the curveball and changeup will help mitigate some of those issues, as well as the platoon issues that may arise from Duplantier’s lower arm slot.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2016 from South Carolina (NYY)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 50/55 50/55 50/55 90-94 / 96

He doesn’t throw especially hard but the baseball appears to explode out of Widener’s hand, and it often gets on hitters much quicker than they’re expecting. Acquired in that massive, three-team, Steven Souza deal, Widener is a curvaceous 6-foot righty with several above-average pitches and average command. Much of the industry thought he was a reliever coming out of college, but the Yankees and Dbacks bought in on Widener as a starter, and they appear to have been correct.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Bahamas (ARI)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/70 30/60 60/55 40/50 60/60

The 2018 extended spring rehab group at Salt River Fields often included Jake Lamb and Steven Souza. Robinson, still 17 at the time, was just as big as both of them and about as fast as Souza, who is a 60 runner underway. Robinson is a Bahamian man-child, built like an SEC wide receiver and about as fast once he really gets going. He performed fairly well in his first pro season and was pushed to the Pioneer League late in the summer.

He has some swing and miss issues, and his bat path needs some work to get to all the power that’s coming, but the foundation for a combination of contact and power is present. It’s unlikely that Robinson stays in center field forever, and he may even need to move to right while he’s still in the minors, but the power that comes with all that good weight could approach the top of the scale. He’s a high risk, high upside teenage power-hitting prospect.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 184 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/40 60/55 45/55 55/55

Perdomo is among the most advanced switch-hitting teenagers on the planet, possessing innate feel for contact from both sides of the plate despite what can sometimes be an awkward-looking swing. As of list publication, he has a plus-plus walk rate over about 150 pro plate appearances, enough to be confident that he has value-adding feel for the strike zone. Not only that, but he is a potential 55 or 60 glove at short. Already procedurally advanced, Perdomo will likely get quicker and more explosive as his body matures, but his frame is not so large that he projects to third base; he’s a high-probability middle infielder.

The quality of Perdomo’s contact may eventually result in power output beyond his raw grade; he’ll be a star if that happens. If not, a defensive asset at short with a plus bat and excellent ball/strike recognition is still an everyday player.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Mount Carmel HS (IL) (ARI)
Age 19.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 60/60 50/55 40/40

Pre-draft questions about Thomas focused on his physicality, or lack thereof, despite his long track record of hitting against elite competition at amateur showcase events around the country. He’s well-conditioned, but short, built narrowly, and likely to max out with a frame similar to Brett Gardner’s. And Thomas projects to have a similar skillset. It’s rare that a high school hitter from Chicago is this polished, especially one as young as Thomas, who was barely 18 on draft day.

He runs well enough to project in center field (though his reads from the corners are much better right now and he might just be a plus corner glove, also like Gardner), which makes the unenthusiastic, frame-based power projection less concerning. There’s some tweener fourth outfielder risk here because of the lack of power projection and potential move off of center field, but it’s reasonable to hope some combination of contact, on base ability, and defense make up for that and enable Thomas to be a regular.

8. Alvin Guzman, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/55 20/50 60/60 40/55 70/70

Signed for $1.85 million last July, Guzman has yet to set foot on a baseball field in the U.S., but he’s already one of the most exciting players in this system. He has a rare combination of speed, frame, and swing foundation, a triumvirate that gives Guzman a chance to be a five-tool star, something most prospects simply don’t have a chance to become.

He has a loose, whippy swing that he doesn’t always control, and had among the best straightline speed in the 2018 July 2 class. The footspeed makes Guzman a rangy outfield defender and likely to stay in center. His hands have enough life in the box that he might do offensive damage, too. We have no data on important aspects of Guzman’s ultimate profile, making him as risky a prospect as he is skilled. He may not come stateside until this fall for instructional league, unless he so convincingly dominates the DSL that Arizona is compelled to promote him.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/50 20/40 60/60 45/55 55/55

Teams with Extended Spring coverage in Arizona were split as to which of the two Dbacks shortstop prospects they preferred until Geraldo Perdomo separated himself with his summer performance. Some teams were early Peguero advocates, citing his age, superior athleticism, and a build comparable to a young Jean Segura’s.

Like most of Arizona’s teenage shortstop prospects, Peguero earned a late-summer promotion with early-season performance, slashing .309/.356/.457 in the DSL. His swing is shorter than a mid-inning station identification and he takes good at-bats for someone his age, so there’s big ceiling on the hit tool if his timing at the plate improves. He’s also a rangy defender with a plus arm and at least average hands. He can go into the hole, backhand a ball, plant, and hose runners. The frame isn’t favorable for power projection, but Peguero’s hands are so quick that he might be able to pull and lift enough balls to actually produce some homers. His swing is not currently geared for that type of contact, though. Regardless, the bat and defensive ability is promising, as is the frame and athletic ability. He has everyday shortstop upside.

10. Matt Tabor, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Milton Academy HS (MA) (ARI)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/60 35/50 91-94 / 95

Tabor’s velocity seems to have plateaued after it exploded as his wiry frame filled out later in high school. He’s sitting in the low-90s, with a breaking ball and changeup that each flash above average. He’s athletic, his arm slot creates rise on his fastball and bat-missing, vertical action on his breaking stuff, and Tabor has unusually good feel for his changeup, especially for a northeast prep arm. It looks like he’s going to move along developmentally with the advanced teenagers from last year’s rookie-ball group. He’s the best long-term pitching prospect in this system, and has a chance to be a No. 4 starter if the velo finds another gear, more likely a No. 4/5 if it does not.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2018 from IMG Academy HS (FL) (ARI)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 50/55 20/45 45/40 45/50 80/80

Alexander fell out of the top 10 rounds of last year’s draft due to questions about his signability, hit tool, and age relative to his peers. He was almost 19 on draft day, which, combined with the strikeout issues, moved him way down the boards of teams who care about those variables, especially together. He ended up signing for a very reasonable $500,000, then hit .362 against AZL pitching and was eventually promoted to the Pioneer League.

He’s an advanced defender with an 80 arm (the teams most bearish on his bat in high school wanted to see him on the mound) and above-average raw power, which Alexander’s pre-daft proponents insisted he’d get to despite the strikeouts. We don’t know much about the plate discipline aspect of the profile yet. The low end of the spectrum makes the offensive skillset read like Tim Beckham’s, but Alexander projects as a better defender.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Virginia (ARI)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 25/40 60/60 45/50 40/40

McCarthy’s older brother Joe was a hyped prospect who slid on draft day due to a down spring stemming from a back issue. Jake also missed most of his draft spring, but with a broken wrist. He returned not long before the draft and did not look very good, and teams had mixed opinions about him on draft day. Some thought he just needed more time to get back to full strength and speed, while others were scared off by their post-injury looks, which were so bad that multiple scouts told us they thought he may have been better off sitting out rather than giving teams a bad look just before the draft.

At his best, McCarthy shows at least average raw power, plus speed, some feel to hit, and is a center field fit. His swing is naturally geared for opposite field contact, which will likely cap his power output unless he undergoes a swing change. That will be less necessary if McCarthy stays in center field. Season-long failure to hit in the Cal League will leave us with more questions about McCarthy than we had entering the year, especially if his early-season struggles with strikeouts persist.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (DET)
Age 23.7 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 40/40 30/35 45/45 45/50 50/50

There are lots of different ways to frame arguments about Leyba. On the one hand, he’s a switch-hitting middle infielder who has made lots of contact — Leyba is a .285 career hitter — over six pro seasons. On the other, he has been hurt a lot — shoulder surgery, most recently — and may be painted into too small a defensive corner to be rosterable if he doesn’t hit enough to be a regular. It’s important to be mindful of prospect fatigue creeping in here, as Leyba really broke out during the summer of 2014 when as a teenager, he hit a combined .323 in the Penn and Midwest Leagues. He was sent to Arizona as part of the three-way, Didi Gregorius-headlined trade that offseason, had a bad 2015 in the Cal League, bounced back in 2016, and has basically been hurt since.

Because of Leyba’s size and lack of power, he has to keep making high-end rates of contact to profile as an everyday player. If he lacks sufficient arm strength for shortstop coming out of the shoulder surgery, it puts even more pressure on the hit tool, because a bench role is less feasible for someone without defensive versatility.

14. Andy Young, 2B
Drafted: 37th Round, 2016 from Indiana State (STL)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 45/55 40/40 40/45 50/50

Middle infielders with power are rare and yet Young, who is exactly that, somehow lasted until the 37th round of his draft and signed for just $3,000. This is the Cardinals’ archetypical draftee — a power-first prospect with questionable mobility. Collect enough of these and, through a combination of luck and good player development, some of them will turn into passable defenders and become solid big leaguers or tradable assets like Young, who was sent to Arizona in the Paul Goldschmidt deal.

Though he does most of his damage on pitches on the inner half, Young has enough barrel control to spoil pitches away from him until he gets something he can square up. When Young connects, he does so with power. Buff and square-shouldered, Young’s physicality is a driving component of his power but it’s also why he’s somewhat limited defensively. Young has seen time at shortstop, third base, and left field as a pro but was mostly kept at second base in 2018. He should be a passable defender there, but his lack of defensive versatility could be a barrier to a call-up unless he hits enough to be an everyday player. He’s a realistic internal candidate to play the kind of role Wilmer Flores is currently playing on Arizona’s active roster.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 55/60 25/45 60/60 45/55 60/60

Toolsy and physical, Patino has an exciting combination of speed and power, as well as promising ball/strike recognition. What he appears to lack at this point is barrel control and a bat path that enables the power. Those are important components and may not be easy to fix, especially the bat control issue. But Patino’s ball/strike and breaking ball recognition could help mitigate those issues, and his ceiling (a high OBP center fielder with power) is lofty if they’re overcome. A max-effort player with a fairly mature build, Patino seems poised to have a strong statistical summer against AZL pitching and defenses, perhaps enough that he’ll see some Northwest League time late in the year.

16. Luis Frias, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 45/50 40/50 40/45 93-97 / 99

At times, Frias looks like a stiff, velo-only bullpen prospect. At others, he’s competing in or near the zone with four pitches, including a splitter that got much better over the winter. All four pitches give hitters a vastly different look. Frias’ mid-90s fastball has tailing action, his curveball has vertical depth and eats up hitters who are cheating on velo, the split has late bottom when it’s on, and the slider has horizontal, cutting action. The movement profile of Frias’ fastball may not be the best for missing bats, but it’s likely to be an impact pitch because of the velocity. He could end up with three average secondaries (there’s a chance the split becomes better than that) and enough strikes to start, making him a potential No. 4/5 starter.

17. Josh Green, RHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2018 from Southeastern Louisiana (ARI)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/50 45/55 45/50 91-94 / 96

Green was a 14th round senior sign last year and like most senior signs, had 45/50 stuff in college. He was 90-94 with two average breaking balls and had little college experience because he didn’t move into the rotation until his senior season.

This spring, however, Green’s stuff was up. He was 92-95, touching 96, and flashing plus secondary stuff including a good changeup. The Dbacks may have found something here, though there’s no way to be sure if the velo uptick will hold water or not. He has No. 4 starter stuff if it does, and some scouts with Dbacks coverage this spring prefered Green to several more high-profile arms in the system. He’s currently on the IL with biceps tendinitis.

18. Taylor Clarke, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Charleston (ARI)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 50/50 50/50 50/55 91-94 / 95

Clarke has a four-pitch mix that plays in part because of big extension. He has feel for locating his cutter (glove side) and change (arm side) better than he does for his other pitches, but his fastball sneaks up on hitters because of the extension, so Clarke has command margin for error in the strike zone. He’s a low-variance fifth starter prospect who should see significant big league time this season.

19. Yoan Lopez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Cuba (ARI)
Age 26.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/60 45/45 93-97 / 99

Lopez seems to have moved past a tumultuous first few chapters of his Dbacks tenure and settled into a seventh and eighth inning role. He blows upper-90s heat past hitters at the top of the zone and above it, and he generates flaccid swings at his slider when working away from righties. Once developed as a starter, the return of a third pitch might enable Lopez to be an elite reliever down the line, if he doesn’t already have high-leverage stuff. He’s under team control until 2025 and has unusually high trade value for a single-inning reliever, especially for teams unconcerned about his early issues.

20. Drew Ellis, 3B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Louisville (ARI)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 30/55 40/30 40/45 50/50

Ellis has a very quiet, easy swing but somehow still generates plus power. He has middling pitch recognition, which sometimes causes him to mistime pitches. This manifests as lots of awkward or checked swings, but he doesn’t typically flail and whiff, and Ellis is strong enough that the contact has a chance to be meaningful even if he didn’t take a great cut. It’s a fair, power-over-hit corner profile that takes a hit if Ellis should ever need to move to first base. So far he’s been playable, but not impactful, at third.

21. Pavin Smith, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Virginia (ARI)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 35/40 40/40 40/45 45/45

Smith struck out just 12 times as a college junior and had 25 more walks than strikeouts during his entire UVA tenure. Pre-draft questions about his ability to hit for power in games have proven to be pertinent. But Smith hits and he walks, so a relevant swing change, even one that sacrifices some contact, could lead to a breakout here. After some early-season statistical indicators that one might be occurring, Smith’s groundball rate has regressed to the mean. He’s a speculative low-end regular at first base.

22. Eduardo Diaz, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 30/50 55/55 40/50 60/60

After a strong 2017, Diaz spent 2018 injured (twice) and unproductive. His physical tools remain the same; Diaz runs and throws well, and has above-average bat speed and power. While some of his 2018 swoon was a result of injury and the offensive environment in the Midwest League, some of his issues were also swing-related. He has to take big, long, full-armed hacks to generate that bat speed, and so he lacks elegant feel for the barrel. He’s playing both outfield corners now, not center. It makes the hit tool problems more of a concern, but ultimately, this is a college-aged hitter with tools that come off the board fairly early on day two.

23. Emilio Vargas, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/50 40/50 89-94 / 95

Vargas’ delivery has a cadence that hitters seem able to time, but it’s graceful, athletic, and repeatable. He has burgeoning control of No. 4/5 starter stuff, led by a two-plane breaking ball that Vargas can locate in the zone and beneath consistently. He’s well built, throws pretty hard, and has performed up through Double-A, and he’s now on the 40-man. There’s a chance he sees his first big league time this season.

24. Kevin Ginkel, RHP
Drafted: 22th Round, 2016 from Arizona (ARI)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/55 55/55 40/40 93-96 / 97

Ginkel’s velocity has exploded since college, and he now sits 93-96 with tough angle. He also has two good secondaries, a change and slider that both have late, downward movement. He’s a likely long-term bullpen piece.

35+ FV Prospects

25. Jhosmer Alvarez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Alvarez signed for $65,000 in 2017. Newly 18 and still fairly projectable, Alvarez has already touched 95 and is flashing a plus split. He has below-average breaking ball spin but sometimes creates good shape and depth on it. He’ll be measured against recently-drafted high school arms in this year’s AZL, and there are some pitchability and breaking ball questions that need answering, but the velo and splitter are promising.

26. Matt Mercer, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Oregon (ARI)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Mercer was a max-effort 94-97 in college, had scattershot fastball command, and a plus changeup. His velo is down and neither of his two breaking balls has great movement. We think he’s a Tyler Clippard-style changeup reliever so long as the velocity returns.

27. Jackson Goddard, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Kansas (ARI)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Goddard was worked hard at Kansas, sometimes throwing around 120 pitches several starts in a row, and his velocity was down after last year’s draft. He’s a big-framed guy with average stuff that plays up due to extension and his fastball has life that competes in the strike zone. Realistically he’s a fifth or sixth starter but let’s see how the fastball plays and what happens to the velocity when Goddard is handled in a way that prioritizes development rather than winning Big 12 games.

28. Jorge Barrosa, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 18.3 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / L FV 35+

Barrosa isn’t toolsy but he has good feel to hit from both sides of the plate and terrific defensive instincts in center field. He’s stout and not very projectable, but already looks like a potential bench out field type who can play all three spots and let you match up late in games.

29. Matt Peacock, RHP
Drafted: 23th Round, 2017 from South Alabama (ARI)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Peacock has a heavy, mid-90s sinker that has enabled him to generate a 78% groundball rate this year. His slider has a 2800 rpm spin rate but visual evaluations of that pitch put it closer to average. His changeup moves and tails, but is often easy to identify out of his hand due to altered release/arm speed. On some level, Peacock is a one-pitch 25-year-old, but on another he has a dominant, grounder-inducing fastball and his secondaries have some characteristics that may just need to be refined for one or both of them to be effective.

30. Ryan Weiss, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Wright State (ARI)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Weiss is a four-pitch (maybe five — there may be both a slider and cutter) strike-thrower whose overhand, trebuchet delivery creates vertical action on most of his stuff. He may be a backend starter.

31. Tyler Holton, LHP
Drafted: 9th Round, 2018 from Florida State (ARI)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Holton blew out his elbow in his first 2018 start at Florida State and needed Tommy John. He was only throwing 87-90 before the injury but both his changeup and breaking ball were flashing plus. So long as his stuff comes back after surgery, he’ll probably carve the lower minors. There are some instances of velocity upticks coming out of Tommy John (Walker Buehler is a prominent recent example) and if Holton has one, he’ll rocket up this list.

32. Justin Lewis, RHP
Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Kentucky (ARI)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lewis got $125,000 in the 2018 12th round. He’s very tall, long, and is athletic for his size, and he has great changeup feel. He has below-average fastball velocity, but it plays up a few ticks because of extension, and Lewis doesn’t often make crushable mistakes. His slider is okay when it’s located, but the changeup is Lewis’ best swing and miss option against hitters of either handedness. He has sixth starter stuff on the surface, but there’s a chance that 6 or better command develops late (Lewis is already 23) because of Lewis’ size. If that happens, he’ll pitch in the back of a rotation.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Upper-Level Depth Types
Tim Locastro, OF
Kevin Cron, 1B
Jamie Westbrook, LF

Locastro would have been in the 40 FV tier on this list if he were still playing the infield. He’s a plus runner who can play all three outfield spots, he makes a lot of contact (career .290 pro hitter), and he gets hit by pitches in about 6% of his plate appearances, which is twice what is typical for the major’s active leaders like Shin-Soo Choo, and the recently retired Chase Utley. He’s 26 and looks like an up and down or fifth outfielder. Cron, also 26, has Quad-A first base-only traits but sometimes guys like this break out when they get a big league chance (Luke Voit, Jesus Aguilar, Christian Walker). Some sustain that success; others do not. Westbrook made a relevant swing change over 2017-2018 and went from a contact-only hitter to one with some relevant pop, just not enough to play left field everyday.

Catchers, Including a Speculative One
Buddy Kennedy, 3B
Dominic Miroglio, C
Andrew Yerzy, C
Jose Herrera, C
Ryan January, C

Kennedy is really hitting as a 20-year-old in the Midwest League. His swing is handsy and weird, and we’re pretty skeptical about the bat (especially the game power aspect) despite Kennedy’s pro track record of hitting. Athletically, he’s not a lock to stay at third base. His bat would have the best chance of profiling at catcher and he has traits (plus arm, elite makeup) that make a conversion seem feasible. Miroglio has a plus arm and is a good receiver. He may be a backup. Yerzy has big power but probably ends up at first base. Herrera has been hurt a few times during his career, and he missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, but he has had stretches of good offensive performance before and he’s hitting now, albeit as a 22-year-old repeating the Midwest League. He’s a switch-hitting sleeper with some warts. January has a nice lefty swing and plus bat speed, but he was left back in Extended and is now 22, a sign he’s behind Herrera on the org depth chart.

Young Pitching
Diomede Sierra, LHP
Junior Mieses, RHP
Junior Garcia, LHP
Mack Lemiuex, LHP
Levi Kelly, RHP

Sierra, who shares a birthday with Butters Stotch, is a projectable, 17-year-old, low three-quarters lefty who was sitting 88-90 as an amateur and has some sweeping slider feel. Mieses has a long way to go as a strike thrower but he’s young, athletic, and will bump 96. His slurve is also promising. Garcia and Lemieux have good breaking balls, each averaging about 2700 rpm; Garcia throws a little harder. They need a way to get righties out with the new relief usage rules coming. Kelly throws the hardest of this group, often touching 96-97, but he’s a stiff, relief-only prospect for us.

Guys with Changeups
Harrison Francis, RHP
Bo Takahashi, RHP
Joey Krehbiel, RHP
Ryan Atkinson, RHP
Adrian Del Moral, RHP

This is self-explanatory. Francis has the best combo of youth and projection in this group. You could argue Takahashi’s best secondary is his curveball, but the change is good. He’s a strike-throwing four-pitch guy who could be a spot starting, swingman type. Krehbiel and Atkinson are changeup-centric relievers who are close to the bigs. Del Moral is a 20-year-old pitchability prospect with four pitches, and is mostly 92-93 with the heater.

System Overview

Aside from the contingent of upper-level pitching (Duplantier, Widener, Clarke), this system is simmering with 17-20 year olds. It’s about to be even more flush with players in that age range, as the Dbacks prepare for what will almost certainly be a huge draft class. They have eight of the first 100 picks thanks to things like the Goldschmidt trade, the Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock free agent departures, and an unsigned first rounder from last year’s class (Matt McLain, who had a disappointing freshman season at UCLA), and it has been all hands on deck for the front office in preparation. Even members of the pro scouting department have been out at games this spring as the org prepares for what might be the most important single day for an individual franchise on this year’s baseball calendar.

Arizona has been a pleasant, competitive surprise this season despite operating in semi-rebuild mode this past winter. During that time, they acquired players who aren’t “prospects” but who project to be part of the team when it’s truly contending again. Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly will be around for the next half decade, as will versatile uber-athlete, Ketel Marte. Their depth, especially on the pitching side, is now being stress-tested by injuries. Should it soon prove fatal to their record, trades of veteran performers like Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Greg Holland, and Zack Greinke could add to the system, too. This could be a top five farm by the end of the summer if some of the youngest guys (Guzman, Perdomo, Robinson, etc.) improve and perform.


Top 29 Prospects: San Francisco Giants

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Francisco Giants. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Giants Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Joey Bart 22.4 A+ C 2020 55
2 Heliot Ramos 19.7 A+ CF 2023 45+
3 Marco Luciano 17.6 R SS 2023 45+
4 Alexander Canario 19.0 R RF 2023 45
5 Gregory Santos 19.7 A RHP 2021 45
6 Sean Hjelle 22.0 A RHP 2021 40+
7 Melvin Adon 24.9 AA RHP 2020 40+
8 Shaun Anderson 24.5 MLB RHP 2019 40+
9 Logan Webb 22.5 AA RHP 2021 40+
10 Patrick Hilson 18.7 R CF 2024 40+
11 Camilo Doval 21.9 A+ RHP 2021 40+
12 Seth Corry 20.5 A LHP 2023 40
13 Tyler Beede 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
14 Luis Toribio 18.6 R 3B 2024 40
15 Mike Gerber 26.9 MLB RF 2019 40
16 Jairo Pomares 18.8 R CF 2023 40
17 Ray Black 28.9 MLB RHP 2019 40
18 Ricardo Genoves 20.0 A- C 2022 40
19 Blake Rivera 21.4 A RHP 2023 40
20 Jake Wong 22.7 A RHP 2022 40
21 Chris Shaw 25.6 MLB 1B 2019 40
22 Jalen Miller 22.4 AA 2B 2020 40
23 Jacob Gonzalez 20.9 A 3B 2023 35+
24 Abiatal Avelino 24.3 MLB 2B 2020 35+
25 George Bell 21.0 R OF 2022 35+
26 Jandel Gustave 26.6 MLB RHP 2019 35+
27 Raffi Vizcaino 23.5 AA RHP 2020 35+
28 Sam Wolff 28.1 AAA RHP 2019 35+
29 Jose Marte 22.9 A+ RHP 2020 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Georgia Tech (SFG)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 45/55 40/30 55/60 55/55

Bart was a solid mid-tier prep prospect in the Atlanta suburbs who a couple of clubs really liked, but they ultimately couldn’t meet his price, pushing him to Georgia Tech. He made the leap between his sophomore and junior years, growing into his athleticism and developing plus raw power along with above average defensive tools and arm strength. The defensive tools are especially rare for a catcher of Bart’s size, as it’s much easier for a more compact-framed player to excel behind the plate. Bart has the rare ability to slow the game down defensively and scouts rave about his makeup, game calling, and game preparation.

At the plate, Bart has big power and gets to it pretty often in games, particularly to his pull side, where he hit a majestic shot that was never found over the facade of the football complex in left field at Georgia Tech’s stadium. But while he is exceptional behind the plate, Bart doesn’t have the same ability to slow the game at it, with elevated strikeout rates in his draft year and just okay pitch selection. The bat speed is good and he doesn’t have trouble against velocity, and some scouts point to his solid pro debut as evidence that Bart was just frustrated by being pitched around and developed some bad habits in college. Since literally everything else you could want except for contact is already present, most assume that Bart will figure out a way to get to a 40 to 50 bat with above average game power and above average defense, even if it’s on the job in the big leagues in 2020. He broke his hand early in 2019 and will miss several weeks. He’s a strong Arizona Fall League possibility.

45+ FV Prospects

2. Heliot Ramos, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (SFG)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/45 55/60 30/55 60/55 45/50 60/60

After he looked like a newly-drafted force of nature during the summer of 2017, Ramos’ physical tools actually regressed last year. The bat speed and quality of contact both dipped, and Ramos was noticeably out-shined by the other (mostly older) Futures Game participants during batting practice. Ramos developed some feel for opposite field contact during this span, something he retained as the power returned this spring. He’s hitting lasers to all fields now, adept at peppering the right center field gap.

Built like, and as fast as, a bowling ball SEC running back, Ramos is going to stay in center field for a while but most scouts think he’ll eventually move to a corner. That could be a problem if such a move occurs sooner than anticipated, as Ramos has had whiff/discipline issues in the past, though they’ve been much more palatable this year. He has Mitch Haniger/Randal Grichuk-ish tools. Staying in center will be important, as will retaining some of this new plate discipline. If both happen, Ramos is going to be a highly entertaining star.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 60/70 20/60 50/50 40/50 50/55

Luciano’s broad, square, muscular shoulders look like they belong to a D1 high school football prospect. He has one of the better frames of all the 17-year-old hitters in pro ball, and plenty of room to add power to a body that already produces a lot of it. Luciano has explosive hands and a natural uppercut swing. He hits many more balls out during BP than is typical for a hitter this age, and has taken his peers deep in games, too.

Luciano’s feet and actions are workable on the infield but he struggles with throwing velocity and accuracy when he’s forced to throw from a lower arm slot, as shortstops often are. If he can’t correct that, he’ll need to move to the outfield. If he can, this is a shortstop with 80 bat speed. Luciano is a potential superstar. Much of his profile (the plate discipline, ultimate defensive home) is still not in focus, but this young man has rare physical talent.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 60/65 30/60 55/50 40/50 60/60

This system has three teenagers with awesome bat speed, and Canario is one. Some of his batting practice sessions during the Giants’ new January instructional camp were even up there with Joey Bart’s. But much of Canario’s game is unkempt. He has mediocre natural timing and feel to hit, and his front side often leaks, which impacts his ability to spoil breaking stuff away from him. His lower half got thicker and stronger during the offseason, making it more likely that he ends up in right field rather than center. But this is a potential middle-of-the-order hitter because of the raw power; the swing has natural loft, and the early-career plate discipline data is strong. There’s huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves, but of course, this type of prospect often fails to fully actualize.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 45/50 35/50 92-96 / 98

The Giants proactively sent Santos, who was acquired from Boston as part of the Eduardo Nunez deal, to the Northwest League as an 18-year-old because his stuff was simply too powerful for AZL youngsters. He was 93-96 with sinker and cutter variation last year, and his breaking ball was often plus. He threw more strikes in affiliated ball than he did during the spring in extended, then arrived to 2019 camp with a better changeup. A strong breakout candidate, Santos had a shoulder strain in late-April. There’s probably no more velo coming because Santos is a mature-bodied guy, but he already throws hard so that doesn’t really matter. He has mid-rotation upside as long as the command improvement holds and this shoulder issue doesn’t become chronic.

40+ FV Prospects

6. Sean Hjelle, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Kentucky (SFG)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 11″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 45/55 91-94 / 96

Hjelle body comps to a young Pau Gasol and is remarkably athletic for his size. His delivery is graceful and fluid, and he has no trouble repeating it nor fielding his position, as he’s quick off the mound to corral bunts and cover first base, both of which can be challenging for XXL pitchers. Hjelle’s (it’s pronounced like peanut butter and _____ ) fastball only sits in the low-90s but plays up because of extension, life, and the angle created by his height. Those traits in concert with one another make for a heater that competes for whiffs in the zone. The secondaries are closer to average, often below, though Hjelle can locate them. He’s a pretty safe No. 4/5 starter candidate, though we might be underrating the impact of Hjelle’s size on hitters’ discomfort.

7. Melvin Adon, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
80/80 60/60 40/40 30/40 96-100 / 102

A raw, arm strength goon for what seemed like forever, Adon found slider feel late last season and had dominant stretches where he looked like a potential closer. He has carried that into the early part of this season, more frequently dotting his slider just off the plate to his glove side and even getting it over for strikes when he’s behind in counts. Adon still just kind of chucks his fastball and hopes it arrives near the plate, but he’s going to get away with mistakes in the zone because of the velocity. Likely to have harrowing bouts of wildness, Adon has high-leverage/closer stuff and could be one of the better relief pitchers in baseball at some point, though he may already be in his late-20s once things really click.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Florida (BOS)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 50/50 45/50 55/55 40/45 91-95 / 96

Anderson has an unusually deep repertoire for a pitcher who scouts overwhelmingly project into the bullpen. He has a two seamer, a four seamer that has natural cut to it when he locates to his glove side, a slider (his best pitch dating back to college), and a changeup which has been the focal point of development since Anderson entered pro ball. A casualty of Florida’s ability to recruit and develop pitching, Anderson was a college reliever who would’ve been starting on just about every other college team in the country, so there’s a reason he lacks some of the finer attributes scout want to see from a starter. He could be an inefficient No. 4/5, but he might be really good in a multi-inning relief role where he throws 80 or more innings.

9. Logan Webb, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Rocklin HS (CA) (SFG)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 91-94 / 95

Webb spent most of 2016 on the shelf due to Tommy John, and the little bit of 2017 for which he was healthy he spent in a well-manicured relief role. Then he broke out in 2018, as he retained big stuff through a move back to the rotation. He was holding a tailing 92-95 deep into starts, topping out at 97, and spinning in a dastardly, bat-missing breaking ball. Unrefined fastball control led to a lot of bullpen projection, but Webb hadn’t pitched very much because of injury, so it seemed possible that it might yet improve.

Early in 2019, Webb’s stuff was down a bit, more 91-94 and touching 95, before he got popped for PEDs and was suspended for 80 games. He’s missed about two years of development due to the TJ and this suspension and developmentally is more like a junior college arm than an advanced Double-A prospect. He has Top 100 stuff (assuming the 2018 heater comes back after this suspension) and if he can somehow refine fastball command and the changeup (or a third pitch of some kind), he could be a No. 4 starter. We don’t know how the PEDs, which Webb denies knowledge of using, may have impacted his stuff. He seems like a logical Fall League candidate.

Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Nettleton HS (AR) (SFG)
Age 18.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/35 50/55 20/45 70/70 45/55 70/70

Of all the players we’ve written up on the team reports (there are about 1,000 on The Board and well over that if you count the Others of Note section of the lists) the gap between what Hilson is now and what he might be is perhaps the biggest. He has scintillating physical ability. Speed, arm strength, barrel quickness, burgeoning power, hit-thieving defensive ability in center field. But he is raw as steak tartare and often takes hapless, juvenile swings that demonstrate an alarming lack of baseball feel, as evidenced by his 67 strikeouts in 166 2018 at-bats.

Likely a long term project who will move through the minors with this exciting young contingent of talent from Latin America, Hilson’s chances of even making the big leagues are probably in the 20-30% range, and that may be optimistic. But on the scouting card, the tools read like David Dahl’s or Starling Marte’s, so there’s a chance for a star turn here, as well. It will likely take a long time and there will likely be developmental bumps in the road, but Hilson has monster, long-term potential and would be a peacock feather in the cap of Giants player dev if he can realize it.

11. Camilo Doval, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 60/70 20/40 89-98 / 100

This is one of the weirder pitchers in all of the minors. At times, Doval will sit in the upper-90s with cutting action; at others, he’s living in the low-90s with no movement. Scouts think the cause is that he doesn’t grip the baseball in a consistent manner. Doval also has a delivery totally unique to him. It’s a long, swooping, side-winding look that creates cut/rise on the ball. He also throws a hard, horizontal slider.

The Trackman readout for Doval is shocking. His primary fastball/cutter spins in at about 2700 rpm, which is incredible considering how hard he throws. He also generates nearly seven feet of extension, and the effective velocity of his fastball is about 2 mph harder than it’s actual velo.

He has outings where he walks everyone and gives up a bunch of runs before he accrues an out, and he has outings where he’s untouchable for several innings. It’d be somewhat terrifying to acquire Doval if the outcome of a trade for him dictated one’s job security, but his stuff is bewitching and we think he has a chance to be an elite bullpen weapon if he ever figures things out.

40 FV Prospects

12. Seth Corry, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Lone Peak HS (UT) (SFG)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 40/45 90-94 / 95

Corry was a pretty raw fastball/curveball high school prospect whose changeup got much better throughout last season, which is especially relevant because that pitch’s movement pairs better with his fastball than the curve does. He’s a fairly stiff, short strider and often has scattershot fastball control, so there’s significant relief risk here. But Corry’s pitch mix is more complete than most of the other arms in this system and he’s the youngest non-Santos arm on the main section of this list, so you could argue he belongs up near Hjelle if you think he ends up starting. Realistically he’s a No. 4/5 or a three-pitch relief piece.

13. Tyler Beede, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Vanderbilt (SFG)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/55 40/40 91-95 / 98

It appears that Beede has ditched the cutter/slider thing bestowed upon him for a time and is, as he was in college, a fastball/curveball/changeup guy again. His velocity also seems to have been reborn. He’s once again lighting up radar guns with a mid-90s heater that has touched 98. His changeup has power sinking movement and should miss bats when Beede locates it competitively, but he’s more consistently able to do that with his curveball. Fastball control likely keeps Beede in the bullpen even though he did have stretches this spring where he looked like a mid-rotation starter. He’s 26, but looks like a strong three-pitch reliever. Maybe there’s a chance for high-leverage or multi-inning work here.

14. Luis Toribio, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 25/55 40/30 40/45 55/55

Built at age 18 like Aramis Ramirez was in his prime, it’s likely that Toribio’s promising pro debut was at least somewhat a product of physical maturity. He has above-average raw power already and generates it with a comfortable, understated swing. He’s shown feel for contact in games. He’s too pull-heavy at times, or at least tries to pull pitches he shouldn’t, ones he should just take. So there’s power, early indicators that the contact skills will be fine, and a chance to stay at third. The size/frame means there’s risk Toribio ends up at first base if he gets bigger, and also probably means we shouldn’t expect much of an increase in raw power. He has a chance to be an everyday third baseman, and lots of other viable outs if he can’t get there, including a corner infield platoon of some kind and a low-end first baseman. Or maybe more power comes, and he’s a 50 at first.

15. Mike Gerber, RF
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Creighton (DET)
Age 26.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 50/55 50/50 55/55 50/50

Boxed out of a surprisingly crowded corner outfield situation in Detroit, Gerber should get an opportunity to become a lefty-hitting platoon corner outfielder with power. He has at least above-average raw and has adjusted his swing to better ensure consistent lift. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he mashes right-handed pitching and plays a very good corner outfield, so he might play against lefties, too, and just hit toward the bottom of the order on those days. He’s older, but is a clear fit in a limited but necessary role.

16. Jairo Pomares, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (SFG)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/45 20/35 55/50 45/50 45/45

The Giants signed Pomares for just shy of $1 million during the 2018 July 2 period. He’s already almost 19 and is, as one can probably guess, a little more advanced and a little less projectable than most other recent J2 signees. Pomares is a center field prospect with feel to hit. His swing is geared for all-fields contact and while he has above-average bat speed, it’s unlikely that he hits for power without a swing adjustment. He looked a little thicker and stronger than anticipated during San Francisco’s January instructs and early in the spring, so there may be less certainty that he stays in center than there was when Pomares was in Cuba. He looks more like a fourth outfield prospect than a potential regular right now, but Cuban players often have long stretches away from baseball and training, so what we’ve seen so far in Arizona might just be rust.

17. Ray Black, RHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2011 from Pittsburgh (SFG)
Age 28.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
80/80 55/55 35/35 96-99 / 102

Black is the oldest player on The Board and he’s only here, despite a career rife with injury and inconsistency, because his stuff is so good. He’s among the hardest throwers in professional baseball and also one of the best at spinning the baseball. He is wild and the quality of his secondary stuff is inconsistent, but at times he looks unhittable. He struck out 33 in 23 big league innings last year, but he’s currently on the IL with a forearm strain. He could one day pitch his way into high-leverage innings as long as he has this kind of stuff, which he has maintained despite the many maladies.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (SFG)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/45 20/20 45/50 50/50

Built like a one of the moai sculptures on Easter Island, Genoves faces size-based questions about his ability to catch long term. But he has a plus arm, he’s procedurally advanced for a 20-year-old, and he has the leadership qualities and intangibles that have an outsized impact at catcher. He also has plus power, enough to put balls out to right center, though Genoves’ current approach to contact doesn’t often enable it. He pulls just about everything.

Genoves’ future is heavily dependent on him staying behind the plate and ideally, he’d catch more than just 33 games (last year’s total at an affiliate, not including extended) throughout the course of this year, and show that the workload doesn’t detract from his bat or agility. The power gives him a shot to be a regular, though a backup role is probably more likely.

19. Blake Rivera, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Wallace State CC (SFG)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 40/45 55/55 40/45 93-97 / 98

The Giants drafted Rivera after his 2017 freshman season, but he went back to school, raised his stock, and was the first JUCO arm off the board the following year. He has power stuff — 93-96 with cut action at times, and a plus curveball — but is wild and may be a reliever, though probably a very good one.

20. Jake Wong, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Grand Canyon (SFG)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 40/45 40/50 92-95 / 96

Wong was holding 93-96 with sink deep into games as a junior, he throws strikes, and he occasionally snaps off a good curveball. Changeup development and refined command are areas of need, and they will likely dictate Wong’s ceiling, which is probably that of a No. 4/5 starter who induces weak contact rather than strikeouts.

21. Chris Shaw, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Boston College (SFG)
Age 25.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 50/55 70/70 40/40 40/40 55/55

Shaw is one of many whiff-heavy corner bats with huge power who floats around the upper levels of the minors, putting up big power numbers while struggling to find a big league role if their parent club has someone at 1B/DH. The Giants have tried Shaw in the outfield but scouts don’t think he’s playable out there. Shaw has the advantage of hitting left-handed, but unless the Giants make a concerted effort to give him reps soon (they demoted him to Double-A to start 2019, so not a great sign) he’ll probably bounce around on waivers until a team with 40-man space — and the time to see whether or not Shaw can hit big league pitching — gives him a chance. Sometimes this is how clubs fall into Jesus Aguilar and Christian Walker, but it’s also the fate of many a Quad-A hitter.

22. Jalen Miller, 2B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Riverwood HS (GA) (SFG)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 50/50 40/45 55/55 45/50 40/40

Miller’s lack of arm strength really boxes him in at second base, which means he has to hit enough to be a regular there because defensive versatility, and therefore a viable utility role, isn’t part of his profile. Much of the pressure will be on the bat to ball skills as Miller is a compact guy with average bat speed. He probably needs to be a 60 bat or better to play every day, which is feasible considering that his attributes, dating back to high school, are lead by a short swing and barrel control. He’s off to a good start in 2019, walking nearly as much as he has struck out.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Chaparral HS (AZ) (SFG)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/70 30/55 45/40 40/40 55/55

Though he looked somewhat better defensively during January workouts, Gonzalez still projects over to first base for all the scouts we’ve spoken with, and his inability to hit breaking stuff makes that pretty scary. He’s a hard worker with a frame built for longevity and he has arguably the best raw power in this system. His future looks much like Shaw’s, but Jacob hasn’t had the in-game power output yet.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 24.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/45 50/50 30/30 55/55 50/50 60/60

Last year, Avelino shuttled back and forth between Double-A (which he crushed) and Triple-A (which he did not) while with the Yankees, then was sent to San Francisco at the end of August as part of the McCutchen trade. He has rare power for a viable defensive shortstop but hits the ball on the ground so much that it’s highly unlikely he does much in-game damage with the bat unless his swing is overhauled. And while solid at short, Avelino’s not so good that you’d live with zero offense and play him everyday. He’ll likely be a glove-first utility guy, but he hasn’t played much second or third base yet and he’s already 24.

25. George Bell, OF
Drafted: 13th Round, 2018 from Connors JC (OK) (SFG)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Former MVP George Bell has two sons also named George Bell in pro ball — this one and George Bryner Bell, who is with Oakland. This Bell is a body/power/speed junior college sleeper who has some plate discipline and bat control issues. He has a shot to break out in the Northwest League this summer and merit a promotion to Low-A for the stretch run. August will be a key time to evaluate him if that’s the case.

26. Jandel Gustave, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 26.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/55 40/40 96-98 / 99

We typically slot relievers in their mid or late-20s in the honorable mention section of lists, especially if they’ve had injury issues. But the four you’re about to read about all have premium stuff and, at least at times, look capable of handling late-inning duty. Arm injuries have limited Gustave to 20 total innings since 2016, but his fastball was back into the upper-90s this spring. His slider is closer to average right now, which may mean he maxes out in a lower-leverage role.

27. Raffi Vizcaino, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/45 50/55 50/55 40/40 91-95 / 98

Vizcaino has been hurt for long stretches during the last few years and was moved to the bullpen this spring. He’ll touch 98 but sit mostly 91-95, and he has an above-average changeup, as well as two lesser breaking balls.

28. Sam Wolff, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2013 from New Mexico (TEX)
Age 28.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 204 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 55/55 40/40 40/40 92-95 / 96

Wolff was part of the Matt Moore trade and he’s spent time in Double-A every year since 2016. He has standard 40 FV, middle relief stuff, but he’s 28 and has a long injury history.

29. Jose Marte, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/45 50/55 35/40 90-96 / 97

Marte has a four-pitch mix and generates plus-plus extension, which makes his mid-90s fastball play up. We have his 2018 breaking ball spin rate on The Board because this year’s are way, way down, likely due to injury.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Power Bats
Diego Rincones, OF
Zach Green, 3B/1B
Sandro Fabian, OF
Jacob Heyward, OF
Kwan Adkins, OF

Rincones, 19, is a plump corner outfielder with quick, strong hands. He’s posted two consecutive years of strong offensive statistics (AZL and NWL) and has plus raw power, but he’s a corner-only guy with a high-maintenance build, so he’ll need to keep doing that. Green was a minor league free agent who had an average exit velo of about 95 mph through this season’s first month. He has plus-plus power and barely hits the ball on the ground (25% GB%). Fabian looked like a potential contact/power corner outfielder but his approach is just too aggressive and he’s posted sub-.300 OBPs for two years. Heyward, 23, is a bit older than most prospects at Double-A but he has plus raw power and athleticism. He needs to keep walking a lot to balance the strikeouts. Adkins was a two-sport athlete at Northwestern State (he played wide receiver as a junior) who didn’t have statistical success in college, but has so far flashed all-fields power against younger pro pitching.

Relief Potential
Sam Coonrod, RHP
Garrett Williams, LHP
Franklin Van Gurp, RHP
Kervin Castro, RHP

Coonrod touches 99 and has a pretty good cutter and curveball. Williams is a low-90s lefty with a plus curveball but he’s quite wild. Van Gurp could be a traditional sinker/slider reliever if he develops above-average command. Castro is a projectionless 20-year-old who throws hard (93-96 this spring) with flat, up-in-the-zone plane that’s suited for missing bats. His secondaries are raw, but he missed most of the last two years with injury.

Younger Sleepers
Ismael Munguia, OF
Ghordy Santos, INF
Andrew Caraballo, INF

Izzy Munguia is a tiny corner outfield prospect with great feel to hit. His power is limited. He’ll likely need to be a 7 bat to profile. Santos and Caraballo are each built like Jorge Polanco. Santos has plus bat speed and some low-ball ability. Caraballo has plus infield hands and actions and Eric thought he saw him breaking in a catcher’s mitt on the backfields.

System Overview

This rebuild could take a while. There’s probably a dominant, homegrown bullpen in this system but most of the pitchers who’ll be part of it are already in their mid or late-20s. There’s a huge timeline gap between that group and the more exciting, potentially impactful group of teenagers (mostly bats) who are, by and large, currently in rookie and A-ball. Parlaying current big leaguers and upper-level prospects into long-term assets will be an important part of accelerating a return to competitiveness. That means nailing a seemingly imminent Madison Bumgarner trade. Scouts from opposing clubs are already deviating from their normal coverage to get extra looks at the left-hander so their teams have as much info as possible as we approach June and July.

Now that the org is under new leadership, the way talent is acquired and developed will change, but we’re not yet sure exactly how. It seems as if early priorities involve throwing fringe roster guys like Connor Joe, Aaron Altherr, and Breyvic Valera at the wall to see who sticks. Expect the Giants to try to find diamonds in the rough on the waiver wire who they’ll likely look to flip for long-term help rather than keep around.

We’ve seen Giants personnel at amateur games with the same model camera we’re using to take high-speed video, so they’re proactively entering that space. It’s likely their new Ops leader, Farhan Zaidi, will bring Dodger player dev concepts with him to San Francisco because the Dodgers have been so good at improving their players, but some of LA’s more prominent scouting tendencies (injured arms, toolsy college hitters with contact red flags, talent from Mexico) will be harder to replicate effectively because the Dodgers still exist in those spaces, too.


Mock Draft 2.0

Since our last effort to project the top 10 picks in this year’s draft, things have come into greater focus in the top half of the first round, though it’s still hazy beyond that even to the clubs picking in the back half of the round. For those picks, what you’ll read here is more a product of partial intel and tendencies. We also have a good sense of the high-end prep players who may end up going to college, and the team/player that may define the top of the draft. For reference, here are the bonus pool amounts and slot values.

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
We’re sticking with Rutschman here, but other teams still think there’s a chance new GM Mike Elias will, as he did with Houston, find a way to make an underslot deal with this pick to acquire more talent later. Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn may be emerging as a fit for this, if the Orioles are uncomfortable with Rutschman’s medical (he had a lower leg bruise, and back and shoulder soreness in 2018, and a shoulder injury prevented him from playing quarterback during his sophomore year of high school) or if they think the bonus he’ll command will undercut the rest of their class. As you’ll see below, Vaughn slides in this scenario. You could argue Vaughn belongs in a tier of his own behind Rutschman, so signing him for the slot value of pick four or five could mean reallocating as much as $3 million to other picks, which could be a very attractive option for Baltimore. Early rumors that Georgia high school SS C.J. Abrams would be an option for this type of sequence seem to have died.

2. Royals – Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (TX)
It sounds like Kansas City’s options are Rutschman or Witt at this pick.

3. White Sox – C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
Vaughn seemed tailor made for the White Sox here given how talented he is, and Chicago’s recent preference for college bats with high picks, but Abrams seems to be in the lead now. Sources have told us that heavy-hitting White Sox personnel have seen Abrams a combined five or six times recently. Since Abrams would likely slide to the sixth pick if he doesn’t go third, there may be some pool money saved here (about $1.5 million based on the gap in slot between this pick and the sixth). That money would go a long ways toward tempting another mid-first round, high-upside prep talent to the White Sox next pick at 45, as the savings plus their overage would be a late-teen’s value slot.

4. Marlins – J.J. Bleday, RF, Vanderbilt
The Marlins seem like they would take Bleday if things play out this way. New scouting director D.J. Svihlik coached him at Vanderbilt. The rumor in scouting circles is that Derek Jeter likes Abrams, but the shortstop isn’t available in this scenario and Jeter isn’t expected to assert himself in the draft. Texas prep 3B Brett Baty is the rumored underslot option here.

5. Tigers – Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal
Here is where things get really interesting. The Tigers have been locked in on Riley Greene all spring, and many expect him to be the pick here regardless of who else is on the board. But with the recent development that Vaughn could possibly get to their pick, it’s unclear where Detroit stands on him. They had personnel with an Edgertronic camera at Cal’s recent road series at Arizona, so they didn’t just assume he’d be gone by this point. He would at least get a long look here.

The Andrew Vaughn Scenarios
If Detroit opts for Greene, then where does Vaughn, arguably one of the best college hitters of all time, fall? Except for Texas, who may end up locked in an underslot deal, the next several teams are all NL clubs with big names at first base — San Diego (Eric Hosmer, Josh Naylor), Cincinnati (Joey Votto), Atlanta (Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley) and San Francisco (Brandon Belt, Buster Posey) — and we’re not sure how that might impact how teams value a likely quick-moving Vaughn. We tend to think someone would just realize he’s a great value and take him anyway. The string of NL teams with several good and/or highly-paid first base options certainly isn’t helpful, and possibly unlucky for Vaughn, though you could argue this is the sort of scenario that makes it more likely he goes No. 1. Vaughn had a dry spell earlier in the year as Cal played LSU and began PAC 12 play, but he’s hit in 17 of his last 18 games, batting .418 during that span, despite being pitched around in ways that have impacted his power output.

6. Padres – Riley Greene, RF, Hagerty HS (FL)
GM A.J. Preller was seen at Abrams and Bleday games last week while he was in the southeast for draft meetings, and each would seem to be in play if they are still here. We think any of the first six hitters we have mocked here would be the favorite to go in a mix that also includes Arizona State OF Hunter Bishop, TCU LHP Nick Lodolo, and Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson, who have all been scouted heavily by the Padres down the stretch.

7. Reds – Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU
The Reds are believed to be looking for a college player, ideally a bat, but have been connected mostly to the bats going ahead of them. We think they would take Vaughn if he got here, but we aren’t sure. In this scenario, they get their pick from among of all the pitching, and while Lodolo hasn’t been as good of late, he’s still seen as the favorite to go off the board first among the college arms.

8. Rangers – Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (TX)
For over a month, Texas has been rumored to be looking underslot here and we’ve heard three names, presented here in the order of their likelihood to be the choice: Baty, Texas JC RHP Jackson Rutledge, and Tulane 3B Kody Hoese. Baty is from a high school in Austin and is a trendy underslot target for clubs in the top 10 as he checks all the boxes of a Nolan Gorman or Austin Riley, but he’s 19.6 on draft day. We have the Rangers taking Baty’s prep teammate Jimmy Lewis with their next pick, following the blueprint of the Blue Jays taking Texas high school teammates last year (Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein from Magnolia HS). The Rangers may get a hometown discount if they did this, along with having extra money to spend at later picks.

9. Braves – Hunter Bishop, LF, Arizona State
The Braves have been tied to a number of players that go ahead of them here, with Bishop the last one among them. They may opt for a pitcher if Bishop goes seventh or eighth.

10. Giants – Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV
Missouri OF Kameron Misner is getting a long look by the Giants, but likely goes about a dozen picks later. They’re taking a long look at the pitching, with West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah believed to be their top option of the available arms. This is the spot in the draft where the Giants could have a final group of 3-4 players, with one of them going in the mid-20s because opinions vary much more team-to-team after the top tier of guys. The Giants have been tied to Stott for a while. He is often compared to Brandon Crawford (more for his build and bat; he’s not that level of defender), and fits the various tendencies of new GM Farhan Zaidi and new scouting director Michael Holmes.

11. Blue Jays – Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (TX)
The Jays have been tied to Thompson (who has an elbow that worries some teams despite never having surgery) and Rutledge (who had hip labrum surgery in 2018), along with some of the college bats above if they slide, and prep CF Corbin Carroll, who could be the prep bat who slides just enough to make it to the Diamondbacks’ pick, where they can assert their draft-leading pool.

12. Mets – Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky
Thompson has been mentioned here the most. A decision maker was in to see Elon RHP George Kirby shove last weekend. Most expect a college pitcher to be the pick.

13. Twins – Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia
The Twins are in a nice spot to pick through the leftovers of the second tier of talent and get a top-10 quality player for slot or below, to set up paying an overslot prep later. Manoah, Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung, and Baylor C Shea Langeliers all make sense here.

14. Phillies – Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech
It sounds like this would be Rutledge’s floor, as he’s in play at most of the last half dozen picks. The Phillies have sent in heat multiple times to see Alabama prep SS Gunnar Henderson, who has a couple interested clubs in the teens, but is seen by most as a late first round type. Chicago-area prep RHP Quinn Priester is also of interest here.

15. Angels – George Kirby, RHP, Elon
The Angels have been tied mostly to high school players: Henderson (who GM Billy Eppler has seen), Priester, Florida prep RHP Matthew Allan (rumors have him seeking $4 million, so he’d be overslot starting at this pick), Tennessee prep CF Maurice Hampton, and NorCal prep SS Kyren Paris, who is another polarizing prospect with interest in the mid-first round, but isn’t a top-40 prospect for some clubs.

16. D’Backs – Corbin Carroll, CF, Lakeside HS (WA)
The D’Backs have lots of picks and the most pool money, so they’re expected to flex this muscle and take some sliding prep talents; they’re also generally expected to lean toward upside prep types up top. Allan and the rest of the Signability Guys make some sense here, as does Priester.

The Signability Guys
The toughest sign in the draft is New Jersey prep RHP Jack Leiter, son of Al Leiter and a Vanderbilt commit. It’s long been rumored his price is over $4 million and may also come with a short list of clubs he would even be willing to sign with for that amount of money. (The rumor is that list may only include the Yankees and Mets.) Leiter’s prep teammate and fellow Vanderbilt commit SS Anthony Volpe is apparently looking for at least $3 million, and may also have a short list of clubs that he’d play for, believed to also be northeast-focused. We mentioned Allan (Florida commit) above, though his talent level is seen as close to $4 million, so he’s likely to get paid, while Leiter isn’t seen as being quite that good and might come with less willingness to sign in general.

Volpe and Leiter are both advised by the same group and headline what could be an all-time recruiting class for Vanderbilt. The only other top prospect with a good chance to get to campus, according to sources, is North Carolina popup LHP Blake Walston (N.C. State commit), as he has a polarized market, so there aren’t as many spots for him to be taken and paid, though it’s still likely that happens. The same goes for Georgia prep RHP Brett Thomas, a South Carolina commit. Two more lower-ranked prospects in Florida — RHP Brandon Sproat (Florida commit) and Arizona C Kody Huff (Stanford commit) — are threats to go to college as well.

The rest of the higher-tier of the signability list are all Vanderbilt commits: SoCal LHP/1B Spencer Jones, Florida RHP Kendall Williams, Maine CF Tre Fletcher, and Washington SS Carter Young. Vanderbilt already has seven players on our 2020 board and three more on our 2021 board, so they could end up with half of their scholarship roster in 2020 having top five round draft potential.

17. Nationals – Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor
Kirby would make some sense here but we’ve heard they prefer Langeliers. Allan fits their tendencies and is the other loudest name mentioned here, but last year’s top pick was an overslot Florida prep RHP (Mason Denaburg) and he’s still in extended spring training, so it may be hard to do that again.

18. Pirates – Gunnar Henderson, SS, Morgan Academy HS (AL)
The Pirates are tied to Henderson, Priester, Texas prep RHP J.J. Goss (who is in play at a number of picks starting around here), and Puerto Rican prep SS Matthew Lugo, though Lugo makes more sense at their next pick. Prep righties are the running backs of the MLB draft, as they tend to slide, but team preference also plays a big part (clubs are specific about frames and deliveries, and some just won’t take a prep righty with their first pick), so they are more likely to go in a non-consensus order than other demographics.

19. Cardinals – Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State
Wilson may be in play for most clubs in the mid-20s but St. Louis is on him, and he fits the mold of the versatile middle infielders they prefer. Kirby also makes some sense if he gets here.

20. Mariners – Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton HS (NJ)
Volpe and Georgia prep SS Nasim Nunez are similar players and are both mentioned here most often.

21. Braves – Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
Priester has lots of landing spots and given Allan’s demands and below average command, has more possible landing spots, so sources are calling him the likely top prep pitcher off the board. Wilson and Florida prep RHP Brennan Malone (who recently hit 99 mph) both make some sense here as well.

22. Rays – Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (CA)
Lots of young-for-the-class prep bats (Cavaco, Paris, Henderson, Volpe, Hampton) are rising into this range and pushing down other prospects expected to go around here. Teams that lean on models will push these players up the most and those with loud tools will attract interest from a wide group of clubs; Cavaco does both but his weakness is a lack of track record.

23. Rockies – Kameron Misner, RF, Missouri
Misner has interest as high at pick 10 to the Giants and also could last until the 30s due to his lack of track record and spotty performance versus the SEC this spring, but there’s legit 70 power and deceptive athleticism if a club believes their player dev group can dial in the approach.

24. Indians – Kyren Paris, SS, Freedom HS (CA)
Paris may not even make it to this pick, but the Indians are known in the industry for targeting young-for-the-class bats, so expect a couple from that aforementioned group to be in their final mix.

25. Dodgers – Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy HS (FL)
The Dodgers have been tied to a few prospects, like Clemson SS Logan Davidson, Volpe, and handful of prep pitchers, which backs up their willingness to tap any demographic. Malone arguably has the best mix of now stuff, command, and delivery/arm action quality in the draft.

26. D’Backs – Matthew Allan, RHP, Seminole HS (FL)
Allan has flashed two 70 pitches (fastball, curveball) at times this spring and Arizona has the financial muscle to get him to this pick.

27. Cubs – Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson
Davidson strikes out too much, but he’s a big, switch-hitting shortstop who has always produced and some clubs think they can dial in the approach.

28. Brewers – Maurice Hampton, CF, Memphis University HS (TN)
Hampton fits the Brewers’ upside type as a young-for-the-class, up-the-middle athlete with big exit velos, though he’s raw enough to get to this pick. Hampton is also an LSU cornerback commit but should be signable in this range.

29. A’s – Michael Busch, 1B, North Carolina
Busch shouldn’t last this long on talent, but with young prep bats sneaking up, the college first baseman without a 70 tool may be the one to slide, where Oakland should be happy to scoop him up.

30. Yankees – Tyler Callihan, 3B, Providence HS (FL)
The Yankees are tied to Misner and Lugo, and figure to look for prospects with tools big enough to play a role for them in the big leagues. Some think Callihan could be a 60 hit/power third baseman and New York cares less about age for prep hitters than other clubs (Callihan is 19.0 on draft day, the same as Blake Rutherford in 2016).

31. Dodgers – Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane
Landing spots for Georgia prep RHP Daniel Espino have been hard to find, with more than a handful of clubs totally out, but some clubs that emphasize now stuff amongst prep pitchers seem interesting in the 20-40 range. The Dodgers could pull the trigger here, but Hoese is a better value, and likely doesn’t get past Houston at the next pick.

32. Astros – Daniel Espino, RHP, Premier Academy HS (GA)
This is believed to be Hoese’s floor. They’ve taken a long look at UNC Wilmington SS Greg Jones recently, arguably the top athlete in the draft and with a decent eye at the plate, but in need of a swing overhaul. Espino makes some sense here and could move quickly in a system geared to his strengths.

33. D’Backs – Matthew Lugo, SS, Beltran Academy HS (PR)
34. D’Backs – J.J. Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (TX)
35. Marlins – Nasim Nunez, SS, Collins Hill HS (GA)
36. Rays – Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington
37. Pirates – Brooks Lee, SS, San Luis Obispo HS (CA)
38. Yankees – Drey Jameson, RHP, Ball State
39. Twins – Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M
40. Rays – Ryne Nelson, RHP, Oregon
41. Rangers – Jimmy Lewis, RHP, Lake Travis HS (TX)