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Day 1 Draft Review

by
June 4, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

Draft Week rolls on with breakdowns of all the picks from Day 1. We don’t do grades, as it would be silly to project how these picks are going to work out five-plus years from now the day after they happen, and because you can get a sense of our opinion of a pick from our rankings and the tone of our comments. As you can see above, there will be a podcast reviews Days 1 and 2 with a couple of minutes spent on each team, then a notebook wrap-up of the odds and ends we’ve heard when the draft concludes. For more complete reports and tool grades on these players, head over to THE BOARD.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
16 9 45+ Corbin Carroll CF 18.8 Lakeside HS contact, spray, speed
26 34 45 Blake Walston LHP 17.9 New Hanover HS spin, physical proj
33 23 45 Brennan Malone RHP 18.8 IMG Academy HS body, arm strength, slider
34 50 40+ Drey Jameson RHP 21.8 Ball State multiple + pitches
56 69 40 Ryne Nelson RHP 21.4 Oregon fb life/angle, hook, RP
74 64 40 Tommy Henry LHP 21.9 Michigan extension, spin axis
75 57 40 Dominic Fletcher RF 21.8 Arkansas spray, contact quality
The D’backs had a cornucopia of Day 1 one picks and did about what the industry expected, going prep/upside high and more college/certainty lower, but not every pick fit perfectly into that dichotomy. Carroll is a dynamic speed/defense/contact center fielder who raked against good pitching last summer. Walston is a young-for-the-class, super projectable, athletic lefty who has one of the draft’s best curveballs. Malone is a more developed power arm who has hit 99, and uses four pitches well. Jameson and Nelson are college power arms who profile more in late or multi-inning relief than as 180-inning starter types. All three of the college arms have vertical arm slots. We like Fletcher as a stout, aggressive power bat who’s sneaky good defensively given his frame and mediocre long speed.

Atlanta Braves
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
9 14 45 Shea Langeliers C 21.6 Baylor arm and glove +, power
21 54 40 Braden Shewmake 2B 21.6 Texas A&M frame, polish
60 HM 35 Beau Philip SS 20.6 Oregon State age, contact feel, MIF
The Braves opted for safety with a catch-and-throw college backstop at nine. Langeliers is a complete defender with a mixed offensive track record, though he was hot during Big 12 play. We were on the low end of the Shewmake spectrum, with many teams having him in the 30-40 range and a couple in the 20s. He lacks a plus tool but is a good athlete with a solid performance resume. Philip is an infield fit with above-average bat speed, but his swing is pretty rough. He’s also young, but we thought he was a Day 2 player.

Baltimore Orioles
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
1 1 60 Adley Rutschman C 21.3 Oregon State everything
42 40 40+ Gunnar Henderson 3B 17.9 Morgan Academy HS age, + arm/power proj
71 32 45 Kyle Stowers RF 21.4 Stanford modern swing, power
The Orioles eschewed any funny business and took the best player. Henderson was a nice value and is probably a safer alternative to the prep arms. He could be a bag full of 55s at maturity. Stowers was a hot name before the draft and had some interest in the 30s. His swing is geared for lift and he’ll play good defense.

Boston Red Sox
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
43 48 40+ Cameron Cannon 3B 21.6 Arizona big stats, + bat, INF
69 26 45 Matthew Lugo SS 18.1 Beltran Academy HS age, frame, ath
The Red Sox should be thrilled with their haul yesterday, despite having the smallest draft pool in the league. Cannon was right there with a handful of major conference college infielders we liked in that range. Lugo looked likely to go in the 25-40 range and somehow lasted until 69 as our 26th ranked prospect. It isn’t completely clear what caused the slide, but it wasn’t bonus demands.

Chicago Cubs
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
27 55 40 Ryan Jensen RHP 21.5 Fresno State velo, fastball mvmt, ath
64 51 40 Chase Strumpf 2B 21.3 UCLA up-the-middle, stats
Jensen had late helium into the 25-40 range as he’d been performing well, holding his mid-90s velo late into games all year, and he purportedly has unique fastball characteristics that attracted him to progressive clubs. He could move quickly in a multi-inning role and continues the trend of college arms for the Cubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the Cubs kicked the tires on prep RHP Matthew Allan and it sounds like the D’backs did as well. Allan seems likely to go to Florida now. Strumpf is a nice value as another college infield performer who needs a bit of a swing change to turn him into an everyday player. He also homered for UCLA in their regional just seconds after being drafted.

Chicago White Sox
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
3 4 50 Andrew Vaughn 1B 21.2 Cal elite approach, + hit & power
45 86 40 Matthew Thompson RHP 18.8 Cypress Ranch HS frame, delivery, occ. arm spd
Vaughn continues Chicago’s run on college bats under Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn. We heard if they had cut at three (which they likely won’t with Vaughn), it would have been in anticipation of taking a prep arm at 45, and they got one in Thompson anyway. We were a bit lower on him, as his stuff that flashed plus over the summer was less dynamic this spring. Some clubs thought he may have plateaued. That said, he’s still a long-limbed teenager with a great delivery who has been into the mid-90s for years.

Cincinnati Reds
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
7 7 50 Nick Lodolo LHP 21.3 TCU frame, breaking ball
49 89 40 Rece Hinds RF 18.8 IMG Academy HS elite power
Working under the assumption they wouldn’t get a chance to take one of the six top bats, the Reds had been fixated on Lodolo for a while. He’s the consensus best pitcher in the draft, and Cincy still needs more of that at the big league level. Hinds is one of the bigger boom or bust hitting prospects in the draft, with 70 raw power undermined by whiff issues. He’s a hulking 6-foot-4 with something close to average long speed and he can do backflips, but at times he looks lost at third base. He could be a monster, he could be Jake Gatewood.

Cleveland Indians
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
24 33 45 Daniel Espino RHP 18.4 Premier Academy HS velo, spin
63 85 40 Yordys Valdes SS 17.8 McArthur HS age, athleticism
Cleveland drafts young guys and famous, accomplished prep pitching. Their two picks were exactly that. Scouts worry the bat is light, but Valdes is athletic defensively and super young for the class, so he’s got a shot. Espino at times has shown about the best stuff a prep pitcher has shown (hits 100 mph, with two plus breakers and he knows how to use them) while other times he’s a bit of a bull in a china shop with 55 to 60-grade stuff.

Colorado Rockies
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
23 46 40+ Michael Toglia 1B 20.8 UCLA power, + glove
62 41 40+ Aaron Schunk 3B 21.9 Georgia power, arm
77 HM 35+ Karl Kauffmann RHP 21.8 Michigan slider
Toglia had late helium after a slow start and returned to the back half of the first, roughly where he started the spring. He’s a solid hitter with power and defensive value, but he was brutal for the first month of the season or so, skewing his season stats. He was hot in conference play against the best pitching UCLA faced. Schunk is a swing change candidate with above average defensive ability. Kauffman continues the Rockies’ trend of taking sinkerballers exclusively, with a shot to be a backend starter.

Detroit Tigers
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
5 6 50 Riley Greene RF 18.7 Hagerty HS polish, hit/power combo
47 43 40+ Nick Quintana 3B 21.7 Arizona pop, glove, hair
Greene was long-rumored (like, six months or more), to the Tigers pick. He has a shot to be a 60 hit/60 power right fielder but there’s still some margin for error for him to end up comfortably as an everyday type, especially with his added speed this spring. Quintana is a power-over-hit third baseman with above average defensive ability and a five-year track record on the national stage.

Houston Astros
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
32 45 40+ Korey Lee C 20.9 Cal power, arm, ath
68 HM 35+ Grae Kessinger SS 21.8 Ole Miss def fit, SEC peripherals
Lee is an athletic catcher with power, unusual speed for his position, and a good arm. He also put up big numbers this spring; we moved him up our board a bit seemingly every few weeks. Kessinger walked more than he struck out in the SEC, he’s a middle infield fit, and he’s an obvious swing change candidate, something Houston is good at implementing.

Kansas City Royals
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
2 2 50 Bobby Witt, Jr. SS 19 Coleyville Heritage HS everything
44 56 40 Brady McConnell SS 21 Florida power/speed, SS tools
70 113 40 Alec Marsh RHP 21.1 Arizona State command, breaking stuff
Witt is a potential superstar. McConnell could be a shortstop with power, but we think there’s a chance he ends up with a 30 bat. Marsh is deadly when he has breaking ball feel, as both of them are big league out-pitches when located.

Los Angeles Angels
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
15 15 45 Will Wilson 2B 20.9 North Carolina State age, pop, MIF fit
55 39 40+ Kyren Paris SS 17.6 Freedom HS age, frame
Both players are on the young end of their respective subgroups, college and high school. Wilson has great hitting hands, his power output is real. Paris’ frame has gotten broader and longer over the last eight months, and he’s now a very projectable, speedy shortstop. Strong first day here.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
25 16 45 Kody Hoese 3B 21.9 Tulane stats, ath, body
31 24 45 Michael Busch 1B 21.6 North Carolina power, stats
78 79 40 Jimmy Lewis RHP 18.6 Lake Travis HS frame, spin axis
Hoese is the spring’s most significant pop-up guy and we think it’s real. Busch was good value at 31, and Jimmy Lewis and his curveball will now be developed by one of the better arm-grooming orgs. Busch played some second base on the Cape and some left field this spring, but first base is his best position.

Miami Marlins
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
4 3 50 J.J. Bleday RF 21.6 Vanderbilt everything
35 31 45 Kameron Misner RF 21.4 Missouri LH power
46 30 45 Nasim Nunez SS 18.8 Collins Hill HS elite glove
Bleday is just a great player who has had a great amateur career and passes every eye test. It’s interesting that Misner, who has huge power but a rough swing, was often mentioned with the Yankees and instead ends up with Miami, which is somewhat staffed with ex-Yankees personnel. Nunez is the best infield defender in the class and he’s got a shot to hit from both sides of the plate. A strong first day from Miami restocking the system with upside bats.

Milwaukee Brewers
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
28 58 40 Ethan Small LHP 22.3 Mississippi State spin axis, approach angle
65 110 40 Antoine Kelly LHP 19.5 Wabash Valley JC velo, TrackMan stuff
Small has the Clayton Kershaw-style delivery that creates fastball rise, though Small has heavy fastball usage and relies on deception. Kelly is a big-framed, young lefty with burgeoning arm strength (up to 98 mph) and some favorable pitch design traits.

Minnesota Twins
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
13 22 45 Keoni Cavaco 3B 18 Eastlake HS body, power, speed
39 44 40+ Matt Wallner RF 21.5 Southern Mississippi titanic power, + arm
54 109 40 Matt Canterino RHP 21.5 Rice velo, vertical action
The Twins took power bats with their first two picks for the second consecutive year, then took mechanically eccentric Canterino in round two. He’s probably a relief fit and was in the mid-90s with a plus hook in that role, with more vanilla/inconsistent stuff this spring as a starter. Wallner was also turned in by some teams as a better pitcher than hitter before the year, but didn’t pitch this season due to a forearm strain. Wallner has been streaky in his college career, but there are elements of his game that remind you of various major league stars.

New York Mets
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
12 8 45+ Brett Baty 3B 19.6 Lake Travis HS hit/power combo
53 60 40 Josh Wolf RHP 18.8 St. Thomas HS spin, spin axis, velo
Yes, his age is a factor that moves Baty down the board, but he’s a very talented hitter and we think 12 was last night’s first really great value pick since he could be the best bat in the draft and can play third base for a while. Wolf’s delivery and build is a little scary but he throws really hard (94-97 with life) and creates terrific vertical action on his breaking ball.

New York Yankees
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
30 38 45 Anthony Volpe SS 18.1 Delbarton HS glove, contact
38 78 40 T.J. Sikkema LHP 20.9 Missouri pitchability, velo climbing
67 53 40 Josh Smith 2B 21.8 LSU pop, infield fit
We’re not sure the Yankees are getting a mystique discount on Volpe or if they’ll pay him the $3 million to $3.5 million he supposedly wants; two college guys behind him is evidence of the latter. Sikkema came into more velo this year and retained his pitchability and slider. His delivery was already hard to time. Smith is a lift/hand speed infield prospect who was hurt as an underclassman and has a boxy frame but catches everything.

Oakland Athletics
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
29 29 45 Logan Davidson SS 21.5 Clemson frame, power, infield fit
66 102 40 Tyler Baum RHP 21.4 North Carolina velo spike, slight frame
Davidson was drafted where we had him ranked. He was very productive at Clemson but it always came with strikeouts and he wasn’t great on the Cape with wood bats, but he’s a switch hitting shortstop with power. Baum’s velo was up in the last handful of starts to his best velos from high school, and his breaker was also sharper (92-96, above CB), but he still maintained his command. This is a good pick if he can keep all those elements together, which some doubt given his frame and track record.

Philadelphia Phillies
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
14 11 45+ Bryson Stott SS 21.7 UNLV SS, power
A great get for Philly, as Stott not only fits the club’s competitive timeline better than a high school player would, but he’s also pretty good value, despite industry disagreement about his swing and defensive projection.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
18 17 45 Quinn Priester RHP 18.7 Cary-Grove HS frame, spin, delivery
37 66 40+ Sammy Siani CF 18.5 William Penn Charter HS pop, speed
57 HM 35 Matt Gorski RF 21.5 Indiana frame, power
72 96 40 Jared Triolo 3B 21.3 Houston frame, hand-eye
Lots of upside here, as Pittsburgh ends up a cold-weather prep arm who may just be scratching the surface in Priester. They also get Siani, who loves to swing. He has feel for contact and at least gap power, plus speed, and a chance to stay in center field. Gorski has a big frame and power but might not hit at all. Triolo probably will, but his downward cutting swing needs a tweak if he’s going to hit for any power. He’s more of a standout right now on the defensive side.

San Diego Padres
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
6 5 50 C.J. Abrams SS 18.7 Blessed Trinity HS speed, contact, ath
48 HM 35+ Josh Mears LF 18.3 Federal Way HS XL frame, power
73 HM 35+ Logan Driscoll C 21.6 George Mason bat, body, D potential
In Abrams, the Padres added another top 100 prospect to the best system in baseball. His approach is not geared for power, but he has the raw strength to do pro damage right now. The next two picks caught us by surprise but it sounds like some other teams had Mears in rounds two to three, so it’s not a clear overdraft. Teams did the bulk of their defensive eval on Driscoll on the Cape, because he caught better stuff there. He’s muscular and has a violent but pretty swing, with tools to catch.

Seattle Mariners
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
20 19 45 George Kirby RHP 21.3 Elon command, deep mix
59 138 40 Brandon Williamson LHP 21.2 TCU pitchability, breakers
76 93 40 Isaiah Campbell RHP 21.8 Arkansas pitchability, stats
Kirby walked just six hitters all year and has a bunch of above-average stuff headlined by a fastball. Williamson has trouble holding his peak, mid-90s velo deep into games, but he can pitch and has four different offerings. Campbell is an SEC strike-thrower who some scouts think has above-average stuff, and he really came on last year after being a medical hesitation for clubs in last year’s draft because he missed most of his sophomore year.

San Francisco Giants
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
10 10 45+ Hunter Bishop CF 21 Arizona State power, speed
51 HM 35+ Logan Wyatt 1B 21.6 Louisville power, patience
Bishop has star tools and joins an org whose new leadership comes from an org that was good at extracting the most out of hitters. Wyatt has one of the better eyes for the strike zone in the class and has solid average raw power that he doesn’t fully tap into yet.

St. Louis Cardinals
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
19 18 45 Zack Thompson LHP 21.6 Kentucky secondaries, delivery
58 105 40 Tre Fletcher CF 18.1 Deering HS power/speed combo
The Cardinals scooped up a falling value for the second straight year, as Thompson was in the mix close to pick 10. He’ll probably move quickly like most Cardinals college draftees do, in part because Thompson has such distinguished changeup feel and the 3000-plus rpm curveball to get whiffs. Fletcher was a bit of a surprise because not all teams even bothered seeing him. He reclassified as a 2019 during March, he had a strong commitment to Vanderbilt, and it was rainy in the northeast this spring, making it hard to scout him, not to mention the weak competition. There are arguably 60s on his power, speed, and arm but there’s a lot of risk.

Tampa Bay Rays
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
22 27 45 Greg Jones SS 21.3 UNC Wilmington speed, bat speed
36 28 45 J.J. Goss RHP 18.5 Cypress Ranch HS arm strength, slider
40 59 40 Seth Johnson RHP 20.7 Campbell age, spin axis, ath
61 111 40 John Doxakis LHP 20.8 Texas A&M elite SL feel
Tampa had a good day, adding a college prospect with rare tools, an athletic righty with power stuff, and two young college arms who have traits indicative of further development. Doxakis’ slider specifically has among the best in-zone whiff rates in the class despite looking like a 55-grade pitch, and his velo tailed off a bit late, but the Rays lead the charge in using pitchers for outing lengths that suit their skills.

Texas Rangers
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
8 12 45+ Josh Jung 3B 21.3 Texas Tech raw power, 3B fit, stats
41 82 40 Davis Wendzel 3B 22.0 Baylor stats, well-rounded
50 122 40 Ryan Garcia RHP 21.4 UCLA fastball movement, slider
It’s unclear if Jung is underslot at eight. He wasn’t in the mix until about 13, but Boras doesn’t typically cut underslot deals at high picks. Jung needs a swing change to get to his raw power in games and to be able to pull the ball often enough to be well-rounded. Wendzel was taken late last year, then had a loud return season with a bag of 50 to 55-grade tools as a 22-year-old. Garcia has a four-pitch mix and a fastball that misses bats in the zone, but isn’t physically huge.

Toronto Blue Jays
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
11 13 45+ Alek Manoah RHP 21.4 West Virginia power heater/slider
52 83 40 Kendall Williams RHP 18.8 IMG Academy HS size, above stuff, ext.
Two power arms here. Manoah is a big, power arm who relies on a fastball/slider along with having a workhorse frame that he shaped up this spring. The changeup/command are both about a 50 so we think he can be a mid-rotation starter. Williams’ slot value is about $1.4 million and he had some late helium as a 6-foot-6 righty who was easy to see and flashed three average to above pitches and plus extension.

Washington Nationals
Pick Rank FV FirstName LastName Position Age School Strengths
17 21 45 Jackson Rutledge RHP 20.2 San Jacinto JC 6’8, up to 101, easy + slider
After he was in the 8-14 range a week ago, Rutledge falls to Washington at 17. He’s good value there, even if he does have significant risk of becoming a reliever and has a medical history that makes some pause (two hip surgeries, multiple broken bones). But the raw stuff was arguably the best in the draft and his short arm stroke is becoming more accepted by clubs.

Mock Draft 4.1: The Final Mock

by
June 3, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

Here is our final mock draft. You can see the rest of our Draft Week content on the widget above. For those picks where we think it’s down to two guys, we’ve made note of it.

First Round
1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Alternative: Vaughn
2. Royals – Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (TX)
3. White Sox – Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal
4. Marlins – J.J. Bleday, RF, Vanderbilt
5. Tigers – Riley Greene, RF, Hagerty HS (FL)
6. Padres – C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
Alternative: Langeliers
7. Reds – Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU
Alternative: Langeliers
8. Rangers – Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (TX)
Alternative: Manoah
9. Braves – Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor
Alternative: Carroll
10. Giants – Hunter Bishop, CF, Arizona State
Alternative: Stott
11. Blue Jays – Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia
12. Mets – Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV
Alternative: Thompson
13. Twins – Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech
Alternative: Cavaco
14. Phillies – Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (TX)
15. Angels – Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (CA)
Alternative: Thompson
16. D’Backs – Corbin Carroll, CF, Lakeside HS (WA)
17. Nationals – Matthew Allan, RHP, Seminole HS (FL)
Alternative: Kirby
18. Pirates – Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
19. Cardinals – Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky
Alternative: Wilson
20. Mariners – Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington
Alternative: Kirby
21. Braves – Kameron Misner, RF, Missouri
22. Rays – Will Wilson, 2B, North Carolina State
23. Rockies – Michael Busch, 1B, North Carolina
Alternative: Toglia
24. Indians – George Kirby, RHP, Elon
25. Dodgers – Daniel Espino, RHP, Premier Academy HS (GA)
26. D’Backs – Matthew Lugo, SS, Beltran Academy HS (PR)
27. Cubs – Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane
28. Brewers – Hunter Barco, LHP, Bolles HS (FL)
29. A’s – Kyren Paris, SS, Freedom HS (CA)
30. Yankees – Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton HS (NJ)
31. Dodgers – Kyle Stowers, RF, Stanford
32. Astros – Matt Wallner, RF, Southern Mississippi

Compensation Picks
33. D’Backs – Blake Walston, LHP, New Hanover HS (NC)
34. D’Backs – Tyler Callihan, 3B, Providence HS (FL)
35. Marlins – Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson
36. Rays – Brooks Lee, SS, San Luis Obispo HS (CA)
37. Pirates – Gunnar Henderson, SS, Morgan Academy HS (AL)
38. Yankees – Drey Jameson, RHP, Ball State
39. Twins – J.J. Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (TX)
40. Rays – Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy HS (FL)
41. Rangers – Nasim Nunez, SS, Collins Hill HS (GA)

Second Round
42. Orioles – Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State
43. Red Sox – Cameron Cannon, 3B, Arizona
44. Royals – Ethan Small, LHP, Mississippi State
45. White Sox – Maurice Hampton, CF, Memphis University HS (TN)
46. Marlins – Josh Smith, SS, LSU
47. Tigers – Dominic Fletcher, CF, Arkansas
48. Padres – Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell
49. Reds – Sammy Siani, CF, William Penn Charter HS (PA)
50. Rangers – Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M
51. Giants – Drew Mendoza, 3B, Florida State
52. Blue Jays – Tommy Henry, LHP, Michigan
53. Mets – Brady McConnell, SS, Florida
54. Twins – Ethan Hearn, C, Mobile Christian HS (AL)
55. Angels – Chase Strumpf, 2B, UCLA
56. D’Backs – Nick Quintana, 2B, Arizona
57. Pirates – T.J. Sikkema, LHP, Missouri
58. Cardinals – Aaron Schunk, 3B, Georgia
59. Mariners – John Doxakis, LHP, Texas A&M
60. Braves – Matt Cronin, LHP, Arkansas
61. Rays – Jordan Brewer, CF, Michigan
62. Rockies – Michael Toglia, 1B, UCLA
63. Indians – Yordys Valdes, SS, McArthur HS (FL)
64. Cubs – Trey Faltine, RHP, William Travis HS (TX)
65. Brewers – Jamari Baylor, SS, Benedictine HS (VA)
66. A’s – Kyle McCann, C, Georgia Tech
67. Yankees – Rece Hinds, RF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
68. Astros – Isaiah Campbell, RHP, Arkansas
69. Red Sox – Ryne Nelson, RHP, Oregon

Compensation Picks
70. Royals – Hudson Head, CF, Churchill HS (TX)
71. Orioles – Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Butler
72. Pirates – Josh Wolf, RHP, St. Thomas HS (TX)
73. Padres – Dasan Brown, CF, Abbey Park HS (CAN)
74. D’Backs – Davis Wendzel, 3B, Baylor
75. D’Backs – Erik Miller, LHP, Stanford
76. Mariners – Tyler Baum, RHP, North Carolina
77. Rockies – Bryce Osmond, RHP, Jenks HS (OK)
78. Dodgers – Spencer Jones, 1B/LHP, La Costa Canyon HS (CA)


Eric and Kiley’s Day 1 Mega Draft Night Chat

by
June 3, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

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Mock Draft 4.0: The Morning Of

by
June 3, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

With the MLB draft set to kickoff this evening, here is our latest mock, compiled using industry chatter from team personnel and player reps, our own in-person scouting, and educated guesses informed by how we believe individual teams have operated recently. For more information on the players mentioned below, head over to The BOARD, which we’ll continue to flood with player info over the next few days, as well as our first three mocks.

We’ll do one more names-only mock tonight just before the draft kicks off, and based on how we characterize the process surrounding a few of the picks, we expect some behind-the-scenes fireworks just before dinner time on the East Coast tonight.

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Clubs still think there’s a real chance for a cut-rate option here, with Vaughn and Bleday the two leading candidates and Witt less likely. This crew keeps a tight lid on things, and may not call someone’s adviser to really get down to brass tacks until sometime late this afternoon. Even the advisers of those potential backup options don’t yet know if they’re going 1-1, or how to handicap it. Contact hasn’t been made with Rutschman’s reps for weeks, which is also to be expected to maximize leverage. We think a lot of the buzz here is being mentioned as posturing, and that the odds are high the pick is just Rutschman; it’s something like an 80% chance, but by no means a slam dunk. It’s worth noting that some of the concerns on Rutschman’s medical are more likely to be flagged by Baltimore given their specific medical staff. Read the rest of this entry »


The Untitled McDongenhagen Project: Draft Preview Pod

by
May 31, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 16

This is the 16th episode of a sorta weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men.

This episode is focused on Monday’s MLB Draft and our coverage of it, which is featured in the widget above and on THE BOARD.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 58 min play time.)

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Previewing the Prospects in the NCAA Regional Tournaments

by
May 31, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

Today the NCAA Baseball Tournament begins, which means you can tune in and cram for Monday’s MLB Draft by enjoying our country’s highest level of amateur baseball. While we think the entire tournament is worth checking out just for the baseball, we have compiled pro prospects playing in each regional below for readers to reference while they watch, and included some of our thoughts on those players. We’ve roughly ranked each regional in order of prospectyness. For more on these players, head over to THE BOARD. Seniors are indicated below by an asterisk, ages are on draft day of their draft class.

Pro Prospects – Fayetteville Regional
Rank Yr Player Pos Age School FV
3 2019 Andrew Vaughn 1B 21.2 Cal 50
7 2019 Nick Lodolo LHP 21.3 TCU 50
17 2020 Heston Kjerstad RF 21.3 Arkansas 45
26 2020 Casey Martin SS 21.2 Arkansas 45
51 2019 Dominic Fletcher RF 21.8 Arkansas 40+
75 2019 Isaiah Campbell RHP 21.8 Arkansas 40
80 2019 Matt Cronin LHP 21.7 Arkansas 40
92 2019 Korey Lee C 20.9 Cal 40
113 2019 Jack Kenley 2B 21.7 Arkansas 40
135 2019 Brandon Williamson LHP 21.2 TCU 40
HM 2019 Jared Horn RHP 20.9 Cal 35+
HM 2021 Patrick Wicklander LHP 21.4 Arkansas 35+
HM 2019 Jacob Kostyshock RHP 21.4 Arkansas 35
HM 2019 Cody Scroggins RHP 23.1 Arkansas 35
HM 2019 Quentin Selma 1B 21.0 Cal 35
HM 2019 Cameron Eden CF 21.2 Cal 35
HM 2019 Brandon McIlwain CF 21.0 Cal 35
HM 2020 Zebulon Vermillion RHP 21.6 Arkansas 35
HM 2020 Adam Oviedo SS 21.5 TCU 35
HM 2021 Christian Franklin LF 21.5 Arkansas 35

Horn and Williamson will face each other on Friday, while Lodolo is scheduled to throw Saturday. It sounds like Arkansas is also saving Campbell and Wicklander for later in the weekend, as their opening game is against the fourth seed in the bracket. This postseason could be a coming out party for any of the Razorback underclass hitters (Eric’s pick is Casey Martin) the way last postseason was for Adley Rutschman. We recommend eating at Arsaga’s at the Depot if you’re in town for this regional. Read the rest of this entry »


Introduction to the 2019 Draft BOARD

by
May 30, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

The 2019 MLB Draft is upon us, and a few threads that help comprise the full, 40-round tapestry have piqued our interest. The individual players involved, and the pirate crew of scouts and analysts who shape their organizations’ futures are, of course, annual focal points of the process. If you’re interested in that sort of thing, then you’ll also want to check out our prospect resource, The BOARD, which has player rankings and reports for this year’s draft class. It will be updated continuously over the next few days. You’ll also want to refer back to the draft order, pick values, and bonus pool amounts, which can be found here. For the latest gossip, please enjoy our recent mock draft.

Rounds one and two of the draft begin Monday, June 3 at 7pm Eastern. Day 2 includes rounds three through ten and begins Tuesday at 1pm; the final thirty rounds begin Wednesday at noon.

As is the case every year, this draft has some deeper themes and details. Here we outline some of the things we find fascinating, or that individuals who play a role in this process (amateur scouting personnel and player reps) are talking about.

Strategy Trends

Forward Thinking Now Means Tools
During the Moneyball era, traditional, scout-centric teams took upside/tools, while progressive teams leaned on statistical performance and perceived safety. These days with showcase stats, TrackMan and other advanced tech, better understanding of biomechanics, draft models, and the rising cost of elite major league free agents, the progressive clubs now feel comfortable taking upside players just like the traditional teams did. Tools can be quantified to some degree (i.e. spin rates, velo, exit velo, etc.) and, especially when a progressive scouting org is also a progressive player development org, teams are confident they can shape those tools into performance even if the player in question hasn’t performed. It moves the group of players valued due to their performance — think big conference college players with strong peripherals — down the board board if they don’t have sufficient physical talent. The Dodgers and Yankees, who both also seem less inclined to care about pitcher injury, are two prominent examples of teams who operate this way. Read the rest of this entry »


Pre-Draft Farm System Rankings

by
May 30, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

With the team prospect lists wrapping up today, multiple top 100 types having recently graduated, and the draft coming early next week, it’s a natural time to take a snapshot of where things stand in terms of the game’s farm system rankings.

We’ve taken Craig Edwards’ values for prospects by tier and totaled up what each of the 30 clubs had in their farm system over the winter. We also have a “Now” ranking with graduated prospects taken out (see the sidebar here for a full list of graduates), as well as a post-draft number based on our valuations of what teams’ draft picks are worth (in other words, our expectation of what we expect them to sign). Orgs are ranked based on the “Now” ranking; the total number of prospects and average per prospect value are also from that “Now” figure.

Offseason, Now, Post-Draft Meta Values, in Millions
# Team Offseason Graduated Now Count $/Player Post Draft Pick Value
1 Padres $504 $34 $470 54 $8.7 $524 $54
2 Rays $471 $28 $443 53 $8.4 $492 $49
3 Braves $354 $55 $299 27 $11.1 $352 $53
4 White Sox $278 $0 $278 30 $9.3 $336 $59
5 Astros $295 $22 $273 38 $7.2 $303 $30
6 Reds $263 $0 $263 29 $9.1 $311 $48
7 Twins $250 $4 $246 43 $5.7 $291 $45
8 Blue Jays $280 $38 $242 30 $8.1 $282 $41
9 Dodgers $262 $28 $234 34 $6.9 $274 $40
10 Pirates $226 $2 $224 35 $6.4 $270 $47
11 Angels $219 $0 $219 31 $7.1 $256 $37
12 D’Backs $201 $0 $201 32 $6.3 $272 $71
13 Indians $199 $0 $199 30 $6.6 $230 $32
14 Marlins $206 $23 $183 32 $5.7 $247 $64
15 Mariners $196 $21 $175 24 $7.3 $213 $38
16 A’s $169 $0 $169 30 $5.6 $200 $31
17 Brewers $167 $0 $167 34 $4.9 $194 $27
18 Rangers $158 $1 $157 37 $4.2 $209 $53
19 Tigers $163 $7 $156 24 $6.5 $209 $53
20 Phillies $151 $0 $151 34 $4.4 $183 $32
21 Cubs $143 $0 $143 31 $4.6 $174 $31
22 Orioles $135 $0 $135 32 $4.2 $217 $82
23 Mets $155 $28 $127 23 $5.5 $166 $39
24 Rockies $151 $28 $123 26 $4.7 $160 $37
25 Yankees $123 $0 $123 38 $3.2 $161 $38
26 Cardinals $156 $39 $117 35 $3.3 $151 $35
27 Giants $112 $0 $112 29 $3.8 $154 $42
28 Nationals $172 $62 $110 21 $5.2 $140 $31
29 Royals $74 $0 $74 27 $2.7 $140 $66
30 Red Sox $56 $6 $50 25 $2.0 $78 $28
Totals: $6,279 $426 $5,854 968 $6.0 $7,187 $1,334
Averages: $209 $14 $195 32 $240 $44

The previous version of this org ranking from the end of the 2018 season can be found here. Below is the grid with the breakdown of prospects by FV and club, so you can see the shape of a system:

Team FV Breakdown Grid
# Team Value Count 70 65 60 55 50 45+ 45 40+ 40 35+
1 Padres $470 54 1 3 8 4 3 5 20 10
2 Rays $443 53 1 1 2 5 2 9 5 20 8
3 Braves $299 27 4 4 1 3 2 10 3
4 White Sox $278 30 1 3 2 5 2 10 7
5 Astros $273 38 1 1 4 4 7 8 13
6 Reds $263 29 2 4 1 2 2 13 5
7 Twins $246 43 1 1 2 1 3 4 26 5
8 Blue Jays $242 30 1 1 1 1 4 13 9
9 Dodgers $234 34 1 2 1 2 3 5 13 7
10 Pirates $224 35 2 3 4 3 16 7
11 Angels $219 31 1 4 1 5 4 10 6
12 D’Backs $201 32 1 4 1 2 4 12 8
13 Indians $199 30 5 1 6 3 10 5
14 Marlins $183 32 1 2 2 5 2 13 7
15 Mariners $175 24 5 2 1 4 9 3
16 A’s $169 30 3 3 3 14 7
17 Brewers $167 34 1 2 3 1 21 6
18 Rangers $157 37 3 1 6 7 13 7
19 Tigers $156 24 1 3 1 3 1 12 3
20 Phillies $151 34 1 2 2 4 2 10 13
21 Cubs $143 31 3 1 4 2 21
22 Orioles $135 32 3 6 2 13 8
23 Mets $127 23 3 1 2 3 10 4
24 Rockies $123 26 1 1 4 5 11 4
25 Yankees $123 38 1 3 7 3 19 5
26 Cardinals $117 35 2 1 3 26 3
27 Giants $112 29 1 2 2 6 11 7
28 Nationals $110 21 1 1 1 1 8 9
29 Royals $74 27 3 5 3 9 7
30 Red Sox $50 25 2 5 14 4

There is some wiggle room in the team rankings, as you could argue that a team with a couple million dollars less in value, but with that value concentrated in many fewer prospects, actually has more trade value. As a thought exercise, you’d want a $100 million prospect more than 100 $1 million prospects, which this ranking would technically call equal. Exactly where that cutoff lies and what the discount rate would be for a multi-player package isn’t clear just yet. Would you need $120 million of value in two prospects to part with one $100 million prospect? How much would you need for a three player package? These are questions we plan on answering down the road.

There will be an update moving the FV of dozens of prospects right after the draft, and draftees who haven’t yet signed but who we expect to sign (essentially all top 10 round picks) will also be added right away. With that in mind, because THE BOARD will change in a significant way right after the draft, we wanted to capture how things looked both during the winter and in this pre-draft, pre-trade deadline moment. At some point soon after the draft concludes, we’ll have dynamic farm rankings on THE BOARD that will update whenever we change a pro prospect’s FV, which will happen frequently after this first update goes live.


Top 27 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

by
May 30, 2019

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Colorado Rockies. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Top Prospects Team Lists
2019 2018
Rockies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Brendan Rodgers 22.8 MLB SS 2019 55
2 Garrett Hampson 24.6 MLB 2B 2019 50
3 Peter Lambert 22.1 AAA RHP 2019 50
4 Ryan Rolison 21.9 A+ LHP 2021 45
5 Colton Welker 21.6 AA 1B 2021 45
6 Ryan Vilade 20.3 A+ SS 2022 45
7 Tyler Nevin 22.0 AA 1B 2021 45
8 Grant Lavigne 19.8 A 1B 2022 40+
9 Terrin Vavra 22.0 A 2B 2021 40+
10 Ryan Castellani 23.2 AAA RHP 2020 40+
11 Riley Pint 21.6 A RHP 2021 40+
12 Julio Carreras 19.4 R SS 2023 40+
13 Helcris Olivarez 18.8 R LHP 2023 40
14 Vince Fernandez 23.8 AA LF 2020 40
15 Breiling Eusebio 22.6 A LHP 2021 40
16 Jesus Tinoco 24.1 AAA RHP 2019 40
17 Yency Almonte 25.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
18 Ronaiker Palma 19.4 R C 2023 40
19 Ryan Feltner 22.7 A RHP 2021 40
20 Josh Fuentes 26.3 MLB 3B 2019 40
21 Tommy Doyle 23.1 A+ RHP 2019 40
22 Ben Bowden 24.6 AA LHP 2019 40
23 Robert Tyler 23.9 A+ RHP 2019 40
24 Fadriel Cruz 18.5 R 2B 2024 35+
25 Ezequiel Tovar 17.8 R SS 2024 35+
26 Eddy Diaz 19.3 R 2B 2023 35+
27 Justin Lawrence 24.5 AAA RHP 2020 35+
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55 FV Prospects

1. Brendan Rodgers, SS
Video
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Lake Mary HS (FL) (COL)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 60/60 45/55 50/45 40/50 55/55

Rodgers stood out early in his high school career outside Orlando, FL as a regular on the showcase circuit who was often the best player on the field at high profile events while also being the youngest. He had mostly solid average tools and good feel through the middle of his prep career. Then in his senior year, the arm strength, raw power, and bat speed all became plus, and he was the odds on favorite to go first overall. But Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, and fellow Florida prep hitter Kyle Tucker all took steps forward in the spring, and the Rockies were able to get Rodgers third overall.

In pro ball, Rodgers has benefitted form the Rockies’ affiliates being extreme hitters’ environments, which has mostly obscured in the surface stats the fact that his pitch selection is below average. It improved a bit in his second taste of Double-A in 2018, then became an issue again in his late-season promotion to Triple-A. He’s fringy at shortstop and as a runner, so most scouts see him sliding over to second base long-term, but he’s good enough to play shortstop everyday if a club doesn’t have better options and focuses on shifting and positioning around him. There’s enough here that it’s likely Rodgers is a solid everyday player of some sort in 2020, but he may not be the star that some have anticipated.

50 FV Prospects

2. Garrett Hampson, 2B
Video
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Long Beach State (COL)
Age 24.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 40/40 40/40 70/70 45/50 50/50

Hampson was a star at Long Beach State and a mainstay on the Team USA collegiate national team. Scouts doubted he’d stay at shortstop and were worried he wouldn’t have enough power to play second base, which is largely why Hampson fell to the third round of his draft despite three years of strong performance.

He’s hit for more power in pro ball than he ever did in college, probably because Long Beach’s marine layer makes it more difficult to hit for power there, and also because the Rockies affiliates are all launching pads. It’s hard to conclude that Hampson’s minor league power output (.457 SLG, mostly via doubles and triples) won’t continue because his future home is going to be Coors Field. He has also stolen way more bases as a pro than he did in college, peaking with 51 steals in 2017, and 38 last year. Rockies prospects are encouraged to run, but Hampson is indeed a 70 runner and will add value on big league basepaths. Though it’s unclear what the Rockies will do about the Daniel Murphy–Ian Desmond–Ryan McMahon logjam that spills over into second base (not to mention Brendan Rodgers’ recent call-up), Hampson seems like a good bet to be a solid everyday player for someone.

3. Peter Lambert, RHP
Video
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from San Dimas HS (CA) (COL)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 50/55 55/55 45/55 90-94 / 95

Like clockwork, Lambert has taken his turn in a Rockies minor league rotation every fifth (or sixth, or seventh, depending on off days) day since he signed. He’s also a robotic strike-thrower and has walked just 5% of hitters he has faced as a pro. Lambert has basically been this way since high school, when he was just too advanced, even for SoCal high schoolers. Nothing he throws is plus, though you could argue that the fastball is due to its odd approach angle. It sits in the mid-90s and lives in the top part of the strike zone, riding in on the hands of righties. His changeup is average, flashing above, and Lambert has long deployed it with veteran cunning, and he’ll run it back onto the glove-side corner of the plate for looking strikes.

He’s a hyper-efficient strike-thrower with a four-pitch mix, a high-probability fourth starter with little likely upside beyond that.

45 FV Prospects

4. Ryan Rolison, LHP
Video
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Ole Miss (COL)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/55 35/45 90-94 / 96

Rolison was a big name out of high school, reportedly turning down seven figures to go to Ole Miss knowing he would be an eligible sophomore due to his age. He had an up-and-down sophomore spring. Rolison came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season, then slowly regressed. Scouts thought he needed a delivery adjustment in to make him more direct to the plate, a way to improve his fastball control. They also thought he was too reliant on his curveball. To that point, hitters late in the season would sit on the pitch, knowing he had trouble locating his fastball and that he barely threw his changeup. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

Since being drafted, Rolison has worked more frequently with all three of his pitches, throwing 66% of his pitches for strikes, and his velocity has remained in the 92-94 range even as he throws every fifth day (mostly) rather than once a week. He could end up with three above-average pitches and be a No. 4 or No. 4/5 starter.

5. Colton Welker, 1B
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) (COL)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 55/60 45/55 35/30 40/45 55/55

The caveat surrounding amateur prospects like the one Welker was — big-bodied, risk of first base-only, limited power projection — is that they need to hit all the way up the minor league ladder for teams to value them, and Welker has done exactly that. He’s a .333 career hitter and has above-average raw power that manifests itself as doubles, largely because Welker is a free swinger who relies on his feel to hit to make contact rather than hunting pitches he can drive. He remains a tenuous bet to stay at third base, at best projecting as a 50 glove there for some teams, while he’s below average in our estimation. He’s a college-aged hitter performing at Double-A, and is a summer top 100 candidate if a majority of teams start to consider him a viable third baseman.

6. Ryan Vilade, SS
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Stillwater HS (OK) (COL)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 194 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/40 45/40 45/50 55/55

Vilade has not developed as expected to this point. We anticipated he’d move quickly to third base in pro ball, but hit for enough power to overcome it. Instead, he has held serve a shortstop and only just begun to see time at third, but has struggled to get to his considerable raw power in games. His lower half usage has improved, but Vilade’s bat still has downward entry into the hitting zone and he doesn’t extend well through contact. He has a nearly 50% groundball rate as a pro and ends up pushing a lot of contact the other way. There’s ceiling here because of Vilade’s shot to stay at short and adjust his way into game power, but there’s a low floor if he moves to third and can’t make tweaks.

7. Tyler Nevin, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Poway HS (CA) (COL)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 50/55 40/45 35/35 40/45 50/50

It’s hard to find scouts and teams who are all in on Nevin because a) he’s been hurt a lot and b) he profiles as a hit-over-power first baseman. Lean but big-framed, Nevin lacks the lateral agility to be anything more than a 40 or 45 defender at third base. We’ve seen him hit oppo homers but it comes from quality, barreled contact rather than raw strength and power. It’s an atypical offensive recipe for a first base prospect, and it’s rare for contact-centric first baseman to work out, especially when they hit right-handed. Teams have him evaluated as a corner infield tweener who either hits enough to be a regular or ends up on a bench.

40+ FV Prospects

8. Grant Lavigne, 1B
Video
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Bedford HS (NH) (COL)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 30/55 40/35 45/50 50/50

After he looked just okay against his elite peers on the summer showcase circuit, Lavigne generated a ton of buzz as a senior the following spring. Northeast popup high schoolers have a dubious track record because they spend all spring mashing bad high school pitching, but lots of teams were in on Lavigne’s spike in power and thought he fit in the second tier of high school hitting prospects in the draft behind the likes of Nolan Gorman and Jarred Kelenic.

Lavigne has not shown that kind of power with the wooden bats in pro ball and his exit velos are actually a bit below big league average, though that’s less worrisome considering his age. He’s a first base-only defender and needs to absolutely mash to profile. We’re cautiously optimistic that he can do it, but he’s out of the gate a little slower than we anticipated.

9. Terrin Vavra, 2B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Minnesota (COL)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/50 35/50 45/45 45/50 50/50

Vavra had a statistical breakout during his junior year at Minnesota — .386/.455/.614 with 10 homers, everything way up from his sophomore year — and ended up going on the high end of the third to fifth round range in which teams were considering him. He’s a patient hitter with an athletic swing who gets the most out of his slight build without often compromising his feel for contact. One source we spoke with thinks his swing is kind of grooved, but everyone else thinks he’s going to hit, have doubles power, and reach base at an above-average clip. That could play everyday if Vavra sticks at either shortstop or second base, which is where he’s seen time thus far in pro ball, but amateur evaluators thought he may ultimately end up at third base. A realistic outcome, should he shift to third, is that of a versatile lefty utility bat, but Vavra has a shot to be an everyday player.

10. Ryan Castellani, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Brophy Prep (AZ) (COL)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 193 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/45 50/55 40/45 91-94 / 96

At times Castellani looks like a mid-rotation starter, and at others he’s too wild to be effective. His tailing low-90s fastball has movement that mimics that of his well-located changeups, and Castellani’s slider has good length and bite away from right-handed hitters. He could garner whiffs with any of those pitches throughout a start. He doesn’t often get into counts where the changeup can be used, and he’s more likely to work back into counts with breaking stuff, often with his curveball.

11. Riley Pint, RHP
Video
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS) (COL)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/55 70/70 50/55 20/30 97-99 / 102

It is not enough to say that Pint is having issues with control. Even pitchers walking guys at a 10% clip or worse face legitimate questions about their ability to start, and sometimes their ability to pitch in the big leagues at all. Pint is walking more than 30% of the hitters he faces right now, and has been moved to the Low-A bullpen. He simply can’t be a big leaguer with this kind of wildness, but his stuff remains incredible, among the best in the minors.

Through these struggles, Pint has continued to throw in the upper-90s with one of the harder power curveballs on the planet. He has top of the rotation stuff, but even those in amateur scouting who thought his delivery was too violent to repeat (which would make it tough to start) did not think Pint’s strike-throwing issues would be this much of a problem. We’d still take him ahead of relief-only types in this class because the stuff is so good, teams felt good about his makeup before the draft, and Pint is still pretty young. With time, he’s pretty likely to figure something out, though it’s suddenly very likely to be in some kind of bullpen role.

12. Julio Carreras, SS
Video
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 166 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 40/50 20/40 60/60 45/55 55/60

Carreras’ swing needs work. His stride and bat path both have problems, but he swings hard and has promising hand-eye coordination and bat control despite his current issues. Additionally, Carreras has a lean, projectable frame, he’s a plus runner and athletic infield defender who already has experience at multiple positions, and he has above-average bat speed. Some of the mechanical components in the batters box will need to improve, but the raw material here is exciting. Most players this age are older high school or junior college draft prospects. Measured against amateur players his age, Carreras would probably go in the top 50 picks.

40 FV Prospects

13. Helcris Olivarez, LHP
Video
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 192 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 30/45 30/45 92-95 / 96

Olivarez has had trouble throwing strikes during at least a few of his Extended starts, but he has enviable stuff and physical projection for a teenage lefty. He’s been sitting in the mid-90s this spring and will flash the occasional plus curveball, though the curve has so much velocity separation from the heater that it may be easy for upper-level hitters to lay off. Though he has an ideal frame and his delivery has a beautiful finish, with his rear leg flying up toward the sky à la Cole Hamels as Olivarez follows through, he doesn’t repeat yet, and his control is quite rough as a result. There’s a sizable developmental gap between where Olivarez is now and where he’d need to be to profile as a starting pitching prospect, but he’s young and has traits (velo, spin, frame) coveted in this age group.

14. Vince Fernandez, LF
Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from UC Riverside (COL)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 40/55 45/40 45/50 40/40

Fernandez is purported to have been one of Texas’ PTBNL options in the Jonathan Lucroy trade, and he’s outhit Pedro Gonzalez (whom the Rangers ended up taking) to this point, to the tune of a .275/.365/.520 career line. He’s performed up through Double-A, albeit as a slightly old-for-the-level prospect and in hitter-friendly environs. Fernandez strikes out a lot and he only fits in left field, but he is the youngest and most impressive statistical performer of a large group of lefty outfield power hitters in this system. They all realistically project as the larger half of a corner platoon.

15. Breiling Eusebio, LHP
Video
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/55 40/45 89-94 / 96

Eusebio had a breakout 2017, then blew out his elbow early in 2018. He’s back throwing bullpens as this list goes to publication. The flashes of brilliance he showed during 2017 Extended indicated a potential No. 4 starter future, as Eusebio’s fastball would creep into the mid-90s and he’d show you a good change and breaking ball. He casts a lot of his pitches to his arm side and mechanical consistency and command are the biggest parts of his development, as he’ll need to improve in that area to remain a starter. Of course, that’s assuming his pre-surgery stuff returns.

16. Jesus Tinoco, RHP
Video
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 263 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/55 40/40 40/40 93-95 / 97

Tinoco has taken his four-pitch mix to the bullpen. His fastball is hard and comes in at a very tough angle while his slider and curveball each flash plus, though they’re sometimes (especially the curve) easy to identify out of his hand, and he doesn’t miss as many bats as is typical for someone with this kind of power stuff. Tinoco has had some injury issues, but the relief role may help keep him healthier moving forward. He should debut at some point this season.

17. Yency Almonte, RHP
Drafted: 17th Round, 2012 from Columbia HS (FL) (LAA)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 45/50 40/45 93-96 / 97

Almonte has moved to the bullpen and upped the usage of his mid-90s fastball and above-average slider. He’s a big league-ready relief piece.

18. Ronaiker Palma, C
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (COL)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 40/40 45/55 60/60

He’s quite little, but Palma is an athletic backstop with catch and throw skills, as well as advanced feel for contact. He’s twitchy and mobile, which bodes well for his ball-blocking future, and he’s a fine receiver and pitch framer already, though he hasn’t caught a lot of big league-quality stuff yet. It’s possible the physical grind of catching will take an outsized toll on Palma’s little body and he won’t hit enough to be anything, but on tools, at the very least, he looks like a good backup catching prospect.

19. Ryan Feltner, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Ohio State (COL)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 50/55 35/40 92-95 / 97

Feltner spent a chunk of his college career in the bullpen, and he projects in a big league relief role for most pro teams. His arm action is quite long, and while he can bully hitters with his fastball in the zone, he lacks precise command of his stuff. Feltner throws hard, though, and his changeup has big time arm side movement. It’s going to miss big league bats, but an average, slurvy breaking ball likely won’t be able to unless he can start to put it where he wants to more exactly. Unlike most of the other pitching prospects in this system, Feltner hasn’t had a myriad of injury issues and is still being developed as a starter.

20. Josh Fuentes, 3B
(COL)
Age 26.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 209 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 50/50 40/40 40/40 55/55

Fuentes is a 3B/1B with plus power and some swing and miss issues, problems that will likely relegate him to bench/platoon duty in the big leagues.

21. Tommy Doyle, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Virginia (COL)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 45/50 95-97 / 96

The Rockies made Doyle their second consecutive second round college reliever in 2017 and after his velocity was way down just after his draft, he has since been as advertised. Mid-90s fastball, plus slider, a typical middle relief fit. He’s on pace to help the Rockies bullpen next year.

22. Ben Bowden, LHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Vanderbilt (COL)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 40/40 92-95 / 96

Some teams thought Bowden had been buried by the pitching depth at Vanderbilt and might be able to start in pro ball. A second round pick and $1.6 million bonus were indicators that the Rockies might be one of them but, perhaps in part due to injury, he’s only pitched in relief as a pro. He has a mid-90s sinker and plus changeup, which should enable him to pitch in middle relief.

23. Robert Tyler, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Georgia (COL)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 40/45 55/60 30/40 96-97 / 98

Tyler has a long arm action and he’s had injury issues dating back to college, but he throws in the mid-90s and has a plus changeup, so he’s likely to be a solid reliever.

35+ FV Prospects

24. Fadriel Cruz, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 18.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Of all the players signed during the 2017 July 2 span, Cruz had the most promising feel to hit. He’s a lefty infield bat with natural feel for lift, a projectable frame, and a good chance of staying at second base, though he’ll probably only be okay there.

25. Ezequiel Tovar, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (COL)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 162 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Lots of Rockies prospects are two-year DSL guys by virtue of the fact that the Rockies have no AZL team, but Tovar is so physically immature that he’d probably be of that ilk anyway. He does have some feel to hit from both sides of the plate and his swing has some natural lift when he’s swinging left-handed, but he’d have to get much stronger for that to matter at all. He has plus hands and infield footwork and will likely grow into enough arm strength for the left side. It’ll likely be a long time before he’s anything at all, and he may end up as a utility infielder at best, but switch-hitting middle infield fits typically find big league roles.

26. Eddy Diaz, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Cuba (COL)
Age 19.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 171 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Diaz is the first Cuban amateur ever signed by Colorado. He’s an athletic, instinctive middle infield prospect with modest physical projection and promising bat to ball skills. He has all-fields feel for contact and will likely be a hit-over-power offensive player by a good margin. He’s seen action all over the infield but the bat might only profile at shortstop in an everyday capacity. He’s more likely a utility type.

27. Justin Lawrence, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2015 from Daytona State JC (FL) (COL)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lawrence is a side-armer with a tailing, upper-90s fastball and sweeping slider. It’s late-inning stuff, but too often Lawrence struggles with control and pitch execution. It needs to improve if he’s to lock down a big league bullpen role at all, but there’s ceiling here due to the stuff.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Vanilla Pitchability
Alfredo Garcia, LHP
Will Gaddis, RHP
Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP

All of these guys project to be able to take a turn in a rotation if needed, and some may cement themselves as backend starter types. Garcia is 19 and missing bats at Low-A while sitting 90-93 with an average changeup and curveball. He generates plus-plus extension. Gaddis has 45 stuff and had 60 command projection as an amateur, but the strikes have backed up. Kilkenny had Tommy John last summer and may not toe a pro affiliate’s mound until he’s 23 next year.

Young Developmental Sleepers
Bladdy Restutiyo, INF
Walking Cabrera, RF
Daniel Montano, OF
Yolki Pena, OF
Shael Mendoza, 2B
Cristopher Navarro, SS

Restutiyo is an athletic, projectable infielder who is currently playing several positions. Cabrera is a traditional right field profile with some power, arm strength, and a big, skinny frame that should add lots of good mass. Pena is just a physical projection teenager who also walked a lot last year. Montano has quick hitter’s hands but may not do enough with the bat to profile in a corner. Mendoza has pop but has regressed on defense; Navarro has a good glove but has regressed with the bat.

Bench Types
Dom Nunez, C
Yonathan Daza, OF
Sam Hilliard, OF
Roberto Ramos, 1B
Brian Mundell, 1B

Nunez is crushing Triple-A. He can catch, he walks, and the rest of his tools are 40s. Hilliard has huge power but can’t touch lefties at all. Ramos and Mundell have Quad-A traits.

Relievers
Rico Garcia, RHP
Reid Humphreys, RHP
Raymells Rosa, RHP
Alfredo Martinez, RHP
Shelby Lackey, RHP

Garcia is starting right now, but his 93-96 and average secondaries project in the bullpen. Humphreys sits 92-95 and has an average breaking ball. Rosa is a loose, athletic 21-year-old who sits 93-94 with an average breaker. Martinez touches 96 and has an above-average curveball. Lackey was a late round draft pick who has been up to 98.

System Overview

The list of recent, early-round Rockies pitcher draftees is terrifying. Peter Lambert is working out. Pint is teetering. David Hill, Javier Medina, Mike Nikorak, Robert Tyler, Mitch Kilkenny, and Ben Bowden have all had injury problems, and 2017 fourth rounder Pearson McMahan is listed on milb.com as having been released already. That’s a lot of misses early in the last few drafts. On some level, this is damning. But look at the 40-man roster and you’ll see that an overwhelming majority of the talent on a competitive club was developed from within. Are the Rockies good at this or not? It depends on how you look at it.

They frustrate scouts, though. The Rockies are notoriously difficult to ply information from, even when it seems logical and in their interest to disseminate that info — like accurate rosters for the backfields, pitching probables, etc. — in the minds of opposing scouts. Is it in a team’s best interest for other teams to like their prospects? Scouts would say yes, but the Rockies don’t always behave as though they think that’s true.

Can we identify talent acquisition trends? The pitchability college arm has been a popular early Day 2 option for Colorado, though it hasn’t really yielded much lately. Up-the-middle performers have panned out well (Hampson, Rodgers, Vilade, and Vavra look good). Last year’s DSL group, which is currently in extended spring training, is deep and interesting. One or two players from that group could emerge as a 45 FV or better this year, though the lack of an AZL affiliate means this group will either need to face Pioneer League pitching or head back to the DSL for the summer, even though they’re age-appropriate for Arizona.


Mock Draft 3.0 – Two Rounds

by
May 29, 2019
MLB Draft Week 2019

Here is our latest mock draft, compiled using industry chatter from team personnel and player reps, our own in-person scouting, and educated guesses informed by how we believe individual teams have operated recently. For more information on the players mentioned below, head over to The BOARD, which we’ll continue to flood with player info in the coming days, as well as our first two mocks. New Jersey prep RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt commit, son of Al Leiter) is the only player who definitely belongs in the top 78 picks on talent that isn’t in this projection, as he’s the most likely top talent to go to college based on his $4+ million asking price.

We’ll do two more mock before Day 1 of the draft kicks off — one on Monday morning, and a bare bones list of names shortly before the draft begins that evening. Read the rest of this entry »


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