Top 27 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Rodgers stood out early in his high school career outside Orlando, FL as a regular on the showcase circuit who was often the best player on the field at high profile events while also being the youngest. He had mostly solid average tools and good feel through the middle of his prep career. Then in his senior year, the arm strength, raw power, and bat speed all became plus, and he was the odds on favorite to go first overall. But Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, and fellow Florida prep hitter Kyle Tucker all took steps forward in the spring, and the Rockies were able to get Rodgers third overall.

In pro ball, Rodgers has benefitted form the Rockies’ affiliates being extreme hitters’ environments, which has mostly obscured in the surface stats the fact that his pitch selection is below average. It improved a bit in his second taste of Double-A in 2018, then became an issue again in his late-season promotion to Triple-A. He’s fringy at shortstop and as a runner, so most scouts see him sliding over to second base long-term, but he’s good enough to play shortstop everyday if a club doesn’t have better options and focuses on shifting and positioning around him. There’s enough here that it’s likely Rodgers is a solid everyday player of some sort in 2020, but he may not be the star that some have anticipated.

Hampson was a star at Long Beach State and a mainstay on the Team USA collegiate national team. Scouts doubted he’d stay at shortstop and were worried he wouldn’t have enough power to play second base, which is largely why Hampson fell to the third round of his draft despite three years of strong performance.

He’s hit for more power in pro ball than he ever did in college, probably because Long Beach’s marine layer makes it more difficult to hit for power there, and also because the Rockies affiliates are all launching pads. It’s hard to conclude that Hampson’s minor league power output (.457 SLG, mostly via doubles and triples) won’t continue because his future home is going to be Coors Field. He has also stolen way more bases as a pro than he did in college, peaking with 51 steals in 2017, and 38 last year. Rockies prospects are encouraged to run, but Hampson is indeed a 70 runner and will add value on big league basepaths. Though it’s unclear what the Rockies will do about the Daniel Murphy–Ian Desmond–Ryan McMahon logjam that spills over into second base (not to mention Brendan Rodgers’ recent call-up), Hampson seems like a good bet to be a solid everyday player for someone.

Like clockwork, Lambert has taken his turn in a Rockies minor league rotation every fifth (or sixth, or seventh, depending on off days) day since he signed. He’s also a robotic strike-thrower and has walked just 5% of hitters he has faced as a pro. Lambert has basically been this way since high school, when he was just too advanced, even for SoCal high schoolers. Nothing he throws is plus, though you could argue that the fastball is due to its odd approach angle. It sits in the mid-90s and lives in the top part of the strike zone, riding in on the hands of righties. His changeup is average, flashing above, and Lambert has long deployed it with veteran cunning, and he’ll run it back onto the glove-side corner of the plate for looking strikes.

He’s a hyper-efficient strike-thrower with a four-pitch mix, a high-probability fourth starter with little likely upside beyond that.

Rolison was a big name out of high school, reportedly turning down seven figures to go to Ole Miss knowing he would be an eligible sophomore due to his age. He had an up-and-down sophomore spring. Rolison came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season, then slowly regressed. Scouts thought he needed a delivery adjustment in to make him more direct to the plate, a way to improve his fastball control. They also thought he was too reliant on his curveball. To that point, hitters late in the season would sit on the pitch, knowing he had trouble locating his fastball and that he barely threw his changeup. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

Since being drafted, Rolison has worked more frequently with all three of his pitches, throwing 66% of his pitches for strikes, and his velocity has remained in the 92-94 range even as he throws every fifth day (mostly) rather than once a week. He could end up with three above-average pitches and be a No. 4 or No. 4/5 starter.

The caveat surrounding amateur prospects like the one Welker was — big-bodied, risk of first base-only, limited power projection — is that they need to hit all the way up the minor league ladder for teams to value them, and Welker has done exactly that. He’s a .333 career hitter and has above-average raw power that manifests itself as doubles, largely because Welker is a free swinger who relies on his feel to hit to make contact rather than hunting pitches he can drive. He remains a tenuous bet to stay at third base, at best projecting as a 50 glove there for some teams, while he’s below average in our estimation. He’s a college-aged hitter performing at Double-A, and is a summer top 100 candidate if a majority of teams start to consider him a viable third baseman.

Vilade has not developed as expected to this point. We anticipated he’d move quickly to third base in pro ball, but hit for enough power to overcome it. Instead, he has held serve a shortstop and only just begun to see time at third, but has struggled to get to his considerable raw power in games. His lower half usage has improved, but Vilade’s bat still has downward entry into the hitting zone and he doesn’t extend well through contact. He has a nearly 50% groundball rate as a pro and ends up pushing a lot of contact the other way. There’s ceiling here because of Vilade’s shot to stay at short and adjust his way into game power, but there’s a low floor if he moves to third and can’t make tweaks.

It’s hard to find scouts and teams who are all in on Nevin because a) he’s been hurt a lot and b) he profiles as a hit-over-power first baseman. Lean but big-framed, Nevin lacks the lateral agility to be anything more than a 40 or 45 defender at third base. We’ve seen him hit oppo homers but it comes from quality, barreled contact rather than raw strength and power. It’s an atypical offensive recipe for a first base prospect, and it’s rare for contact-centric first baseman to work out, especially when they hit right-handed. Teams have him evaluated as a corner infield tweener who either hits enough to be a regular or ends up on a bench.

After he looked just okay against his elite peers on the summer showcase circuit, Lavigne generated a ton of buzz as a senior the following spring. Northeast popup high schoolers have a dubious track record because they spend all spring mashing bad high school pitching, but lots of teams were in on Lavigne’s spike in power and thought he fit in the second tier of high school hitting prospects in the draft behind the likes of Nolan Gorman and Jarred Kelenic.

Lavigne has not shown that kind of power with the wooden bats in pro ball and his exit velos are actually a bit below big league average, though that’s less worrisome considering his age. He’s a first base-only defender and needs to absolutely mash to profile. We’re cautiously optimistic that he can do it, but he’s out of the gate a little slower than we anticipated.

Vavra had a statistical breakout during his junior year at Minnesota — .386/.455/.614 with 10 homers, everything way up from his sophomore year — and ended up going on the high end of the third to fifth round range in which teams were considering him. He’s a patient hitter with an athletic swing who gets the most out of his slight build without often compromising his feel for contact. One source we spoke with thinks his swing is kind of grooved, but everyone else thinks he’s going to hit, have doubles power, and reach base at an above-average clip. That could play everyday if Vavra sticks at either shortstop or second base, which is where he’s seen time thus far in pro ball, but amateur evaluators thought he may ultimately end up at third base. A realistic outcome, should he shift to third, is that of a versatile lefty utility bat, but Vavra has a shot to be an everyday player.

At times Castellani looks like a mid-rotation starter, and at others he’s too wild to be effective. His tailing low-90s fastball has movement that mimics that of his well-located changeups, and Castellani’s slider has good length and bite away from right-handed hitters. He could garner whiffs with any of those pitches throughout a start. He doesn’t often get into counts where the changeup can be used, and he’s more likely to work back into counts with breaking stuff, often with his curveball.

It is not enough to say that Pint is having issues with control. Even pitchers walking guys at a 10% clip or worse face legitimate questions about their ability to start, and sometimes their ability to pitch in the big leagues at all. Pint is walking more than 30% of the hitters he faces right now, and has been moved to the Low-A bullpen. He simply can’t be a big leaguer with this kind of wildness, but his stuff remains incredible, among the best in the minors.

Through these struggles, Pint has continued to throw in the upper-90s with one of the harder power curveballs on the planet. He has top of the rotation stuff, but even those in amateur scouting who thought his delivery was too violent to repeat (which would make it tough to start) did not think Pint’s strike-throwing issues would be this much of a problem. We’d still take him ahead of relief-only types in this class because the stuff is so good, teams felt good about his makeup before the draft, and Pint is still pretty young. With time, he’s pretty likely to figure something out, though it’s suddenly very likely to be in some kind of bullpen role.

Carreras’ swing needs work. His stride and bat path both have problems, but he swings hard and has promising hand-eye coordination and bat control despite his current issues. Additionally, Carreras has a lean, projectable frame, he’s a plus runner and athletic infield defender who already has experience at multiple positions, and he has above-average bat speed. Some of the mechanical components in the batters box will need to improve, but the raw material here is exciting. Most players this age are older high school or junior college draft prospects. Measured against amateur players his age, Carreras would probably go in the top 50 picks.

Olivarez has had trouble throwing strikes during at least a few of his Extended starts, but he has enviable stuff and physical projection for a teenage lefty. He’s been sitting in the mid-90s this spring and will flash the occasional plus curveball, though the curve has so much velocity separation from the heater that it may be easy for upper-level hitters to lay off. Though he has an ideal frame and his delivery has a beautiful finish, with his rear leg flying up toward the sky à la Cole Hamels as Olivarez follows through, he doesn’t repeat yet, and his control is quite rough as a result. There’s a sizable developmental gap between where Olivarez is now and where he’d need to be to profile as a starting pitching prospect, but he’s young and has traits (velo, spin, frame) coveted in this age group.

Fernandez is purported to have been one of Texas’ PTBNL options in the Jonathan Lucroy trade, and he’s outhit Pedro Gonzalez (whom the Rangers ended up taking) to this point, to the tune of a .275/.365/.520 career line. He’s performed up through Double-A, albeit as a slightly old-for-the-level prospect and in hitter-friendly environs. Fernandez strikes out a lot and he only fits in left field, but he is the youngest and most impressive statistical performer of a large group of lefty outfield power hitters in this system. They all realistically project as the larger half of a corner platoon.

Eusebio had a breakout 2017, then blew out his elbow early in 2018. He’s back throwing bullpens as this list goes to publication. The flashes of brilliance he showed during 2017 Extended indicated a potential No. 4 starter future, as Eusebio’s fastball would creep into the mid-90s and he’d show you a good change and breaking ball. He casts a lot of his pitches to his arm side and mechanical consistency and command are the biggest parts of his development, as he’ll need to improve in that area to remain a starter. Of course, that’s assuming his pre-surgery stuff returns.

Tinoco has taken his four-pitch mix to the bullpen. His fastball is hard and comes in at a very tough angle while his slider and curveball each flash plus, though they’re sometimes (especially the curve) easy to identify out of his hand, and he doesn’t miss as many bats as is typical for someone with this kind of power stuff. Tinoco has had some injury issues, but the relief role may help keep him healthier moving forward. He should debut at some point this season.

Almonte has moved to the bullpen and upped the usage of his mid-90s fastball and above-average slider. He’s a big league-ready relief piece.

He’s quite little, but Palma is an athletic backstop with catch and throw skills, as well as advanced feel for contact. He’s twitchy and mobile, which bodes well for his ball-blocking future, and he’s a fine receiver and pitch framer already, though he hasn’t caught a lot of big league-quality stuff yet. It’s possible the physical grind of catching will take an outsized toll on Palma’s little body and he won’t hit enough to be anything, but on tools, at the very least, he looks like a good backup catching prospect.

Feltner spent a chunk of his college career in the bullpen, and he projects in a big league relief role for most pro teams. His arm action is quite long, and while he can bully hitters with his fastball in the zone, he lacks precise command of his stuff. Feltner throws hard, though, and his changeup has big time arm side movement. It’s going to miss big league bats, but an average, slurvy breaking ball likely won’t be able to unless he can start to put it where he wants to more exactly. Unlike most of the other pitching prospects in this system, Feltner hasn’t had a myriad of injury issues and is still being developed as a starter.

Fuentes is a 3B/1B with plus power and some swing and miss issues, problems that will likely relegate him to bench/platoon duty in the big leagues.

The Rockies made Doyle their second consecutive second round college reliever in 2017 and after his velocity was way down just after his draft, he has since been as advertised. Mid-90s fastball, plus slider, a typical middle relief fit. He’s on pace to help the Rockies bullpen next year.

Some teams thought Bowden had been buried by the pitching depth at Vanderbilt and might be able to start in pro ball. A second round pick and $1.6 million bonus were indicators that the Rockies might be one of them but, perhaps in part due to injury, he’s only pitched in relief as a pro. He has a mid-90s sinker and plus changeup, which should enable him to pitch in middle relief.

Tyler has a long arm action and he’s had injury issues dating back to college, but he throws in the mid-90s and has a plus changeup, so he’s likely to be a solid reliever.

Of all the players signed during the 2017 July 2 span, Cruz had the most promising feel to hit. He’s a lefty infield bat with natural feel for lift, a projectable frame, and a good chance of staying at second base, though he’ll probably only be okay there.

Lots of Rockies prospects are two-year DSL guys by virtue of the fact that the Rockies have no AZL team, but Tovar is so physically immature that he’d probably be of that ilk anyway. He does have some feel to hit from both sides of the plate and his swing has some natural lift when he’s swinging left-handed, but he’d have to get much stronger for that to matter at all. He has plus hands and infield footwork and will likely grow into enough arm strength for the left side. It’ll likely be a long time before he’s anything at all, and he may end up as a utility infielder at best, but switch-hitting middle infield fits typically find big league roles.

Diaz is the first Cuban amateur ever signed by Colorado. He’s an athletic, instinctive middle infield prospect with modest physical projection and promising bat to ball skills. He has all-fields feel for contact and will likely be a hit-over-power offensive player by a good margin. He’s seen action all over the infield but the bat might only profile at shortstop in an everyday capacity. He’s more likely a utility type.

Lawrence is a side-armer with a tailing, upper-90s fastball and sweeping slider. It’s late-inning stuff, but too often Lawrence struggles with control and pitch execution. It needs to improve if he’s to lock down a big league bullpen role at all, but there’s ceiling here due to the stuff.