Pre-Draft Farm System Rankings
With the team prospect lists wrapping up today, multiple top 100 types having recently graduated, and the draft coming early next week, it’s a natural time to take a snapshot of where things stand in terms of the game’s farm system rankings.
We’ve taken Craig Edwards’ values for prospects by tier and totaled up what each of the 30 clubs had in their farm system over the winter. We also have a “Now” ranking with graduated prospects taken out (see the sidebar here for a full list of graduates), as well as a post-draft number based on our valuations of what teams’ draft picks are worth (in other words, our expectation of what we expect them to sign). Orgs are ranked based on the “Now” ranking; the total number of prospects and average per prospect value are also from that “Now” figure.
| # | Team | Offseason | Graduated | Now | Count | $/Player | Post Draft | Pick Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Padres | $504 | $34 | $470 | 54 | $8.7 | $524 | $54 |
| 2 | Rays | $471 | $28 | $443 | 53 | $8.4 | $492 | $49 |
| 3 | Braves | $354 | $55 | $299 | 27 | $11.1 | $352 | $53 |
| 4 | White Sox | $278 | $0 | $278 | 30 | $9.3 | $336 | $59 |
| 5 | Astros | $295 | $22 | $273 | 38 | $7.2 | $303 | $30 |
| 6 | Reds | $263 | $0 | $263 | 29 | $9.1 | $311 | $48 |
| 7 | Twins | $250 | $4 | $246 | 43 | $5.7 | $291 | $45 |
| 8 | Blue Jays | $280 | $38 | $242 | 30 | $8.1 | $282 | $41 |
| 9 | Dodgers | $262 | $28 | $234 | 34 | $6.9 | $274 | $40 |
| 10 | Pirates | $226 | $2 | $224 | 35 | $6.4 | $270 | $47 |
| 11 | Angels | $219 | $0 | $219 | 31 | $7.1 | $256 | $37 |
| 12 | D’Backs | $201 | $0 | $201 | 32 | $6.3 | $272 | $71 |
| 13 | Indians | $199 | $0 | $199 | 30 | $6.6 | $230 | $32 |
| 14 | Marlins | $206 | $23 | $183 | 32 | $5.7 | $247 | $64 |
| 15 | Mariners | $196 | $21 | $175 | 24 | $7.3 | $213 | $38 |
| 16 | A’s | $169 | $0 | $169 | 30 | $5.6 | $200 | $31 |
| 17 | Brewers | $167 | $0 | $167 | 34 | $4.9 | $194 | $27 |
| 18 | Rangers | $158 | $1 | $157 | 37 | $4.2 | $209 | $53 |
| 19 | Tigers | $163 | $7 | $156 | 24 | $6.5 | $209 | $53 |
| 20 | Phillies | $151 | $0 | $151 | 34 | $4.4 | $183 | $32 |
| 21 | Cubs | $143 | $0 | $143 | 31 | $4.6 | $174 | $31 |
| 22 | Orioles | $135 | $0 | $135 | 32 | $4.2 | $217 | $82 |
| 23 | Mets | $155 | $28 | $127 | 23 | $5.5 | $166 | $39 |
| 24 | Rockies | $151 | $28 | $123 | 26 | $4.7 | $160 | $37 |
| 25 | Yankees | $123 | $0 | $123 | 38 | $3.2 | $161 | $38 |
| 26 | Cardinals | $156 | $39 | $117 | 35 | $3.3 | $151 | $35 |
| 27 | Giants | $112 | $0 | $112 | 29 | $3.8 | $154 | $42 |
| 28 | Nationals | $172 | $62 | $110 | 21 | $5.2 | $140 | $31 |
| 29 | Royals | $74 | $0 | $74 | 27 | $2.7 | $140 | $66 |
| 30 | Red Sox | $56 | $6 | $50 | 25 | $2.0 | $78 | $28 |
| Totals: | $6,279 | $426 | $5,854 | 968 | $6.0 | $7,187 | $1,334 | |
| Averages: | $209 | $14 | $195 | 32 | $240 | $44 |
The previous version of this org ranking from the end of the 2018 season can be found here. Below is the grid with the breakdown of prospects by FV and club, so you can see the shape of a system:
| # | Team | Value | Count | 70 | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45+ | 45 | 40+ | 40 | 35+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Padres | $470 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 10 | ||
| 2 | Rays | $443 | 53 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 8 | |
| 3 | Braves | $299 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 4 | White Sox | $278 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | |||
| 5 | Astros | $273 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 13 | |||
| 6 | Reds | $263 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 5 | |||
| 7 | Twins | $246 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 5 | ||
| 8 | Blue Jays | $242 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | |||
| 9 | Dodgers | $234 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 7 | ||
| 10 | Pirates | $224 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 7 | ||||
| 11 | Angels | $219 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 6 | |||
| 12 | D’Backs | $201 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 8 | |||
| 13 | Indians | $199 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 5 | ||||
| 14 | Marlins | $183 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 7 | |||
| 15 | Mariners | $175 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 3 | ||||
| 16 | A’s | $169 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 7 | |||||
| 17 | Brewers | $167 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 6 | ||||
| 18 | Rangers | $157 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 7 | ||||
| 19 | Tigers | $156 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 3 | |||
| 20 | Phillies | $151 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 13 | |||
| 21 | Cubs | $143 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 21 | |||||
| 22 | Orioles | $135 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 8 | |||||
| 23 | Mets | $127 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 4 | ||||
| 24 | Rockies | $123 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 | ||||
| 25 | Yankees | $123 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 5 | ||||
| 26 | Cardinals | $117 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 3 | |||||
| 27 | Giants | $112 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 7 | ||||
| 28 | Nationals | $110 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | ||||
| 29 | Royals | $74 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 7 | |||||
| 30 | Red Sox | $50 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 4 |
There is some wiggle room in the team rankings, as you could argue that a team with a couple million dollars less in value, but with that value concentrated in many fewer prospects, actually has more trade value. As a thought exercise, you’d want a $100 million prospect more than 100 $1 million prospects, which this ranking would technically call equal. Exactly where that cutoff lies and what the discount rate would be for a multi-player package isn’t clear just yet. Would you need $120 million of value in two prospects to part with one $100 million prospect? How much would you need for a three player package? These are questions we plan on answering down the road.
There will be an update moving the FV of dozens of prospects right after the draft, and draftees who haven’t yet signed but who we expect to sign (essentially all top 10 round picks) will also be added right away. With that in mind, because THE BOARD will change in a significant way right after the draft, we wanted to capture how things looked both during the winter and in this pre-draft, pre-trade deadline moment. At some point soon after the draft concludes, we’ll have dynamic farm rankings on THE BOARD that will update whenever we change a pro prospect’s FV, which will happen frequently after this first update goes live.
Awesome, thanks.
Seems like the 40 FV column is missing on the Team breakdown grid.
Should be fixed now.
“[W]e’ll have dynamic farm rankings on THE BOARD that will update whenever we change a pro prospect’s FV, which will happen frequently after this first update goes live.”
As if the list itself weren’t awesome enough as it is! This should be a fantastic resource; thanks for putting it together.
Very cool, excellent work.
The column that jumps out to me is the Royals with $74M predraft value and an expected draft value almost as large at $66M. They must really be hoping to hit on their draft picks.
The Royals have the #2 pick in the draft and by Craig Edwards’ estimate, that pick is worth $42M alone. This makes sense since Bobby Witt is viewed as a FV50++ prospect.
Boston LMAOOOOO
That’s World Champion Boston, to you.
Also somehow the Red Sox came in with the worst farm system, yet still have managed to produce a first-half ROY candidate from that farm system. (Whether he keeps up the pace is of course a different question.)
Chavis looks pretty good though. If he continues to function at 2nd base, they’ll be alright. And Casas looks pretty good too, as does Durran. The farm system aside from them is pretty much all future relievers, or fringy third basemen so it’s not very exciting.
Wander Javier pushes the Twins to #1 for me.
CWS have 0 graduated… so Eloy was not counted as part of their offseason “farm,” right?
Eloy is included. There are a few players that will graduate in the next couple of weeks, after they reach 150 AB. (I’m not sure the BIG BOARD keeps track of days on the roster).
Eloy was part of the offseason farm, but he is not listed as having graduated because he has neither (a) accumulated 130 at-bats, nor (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list). He should do so in the next couple days, as should prospects like Vlad Jr. and Senzel. So, this list could look quite different in a few days’ time.
The Twins graduate must be Willians Astudillo. He’s worth a lot more than $4M in marketing alone. Hah!
Staff –
I’m just curious, on the Team FV Breakdown Grid, do the values there correspond directly with whatever the most recent team rankings lists or are some of them updated at a prospect-by-prospect basis? (i.e. Prospect A was rated a 45 when you wrote the team rankings article back in 2018, but he’s now a 50, it just has not been formally published yet)
So if the Red Sox doubled their valuable prospects they would move from last to 2nd to last? Somehow I doubt that.
Keep in mind that FV45s aren’t worth very much according to Craig’s system, and anything below that is basically spare change. The Red Sox only have FV45s and below, so it’s going to look bad no matter the volume.
great work….one thing that pops out and is jumping off the page is that is the worst I’ve seen the tigers farm ranked by far this season and I’ve seen probably over 20 different outlets and prospect gurus rank these things.
How did the royals get to this point? Having a terrible team AND terrible farm system?
Can we get a $/pick for the drafted prospects section?