Top 21 Prospects: Washington Nationals

If you’ve enjoyed watching Keston Hiura hit for the last year or so, you’ll enjoy Kieboom, whose hands work similarly in the box. The efficient loop they create as they accelerate through the hitting zone enables Kieboom to hook and lift stuff on the inner half, including breaking balls, and he’s especially adept at driving stuff away from him out to right. This is a special hitting talent who has performed up through Triple-A as a college-aged shortstop, and Anthony Rendon‘s departure opens the door for at-bats right away.

We don’t really like Kieboom at shortstop. He’s a little heavy-footed and his hands are below average. He’s arguably better-suited for second or third base, but one could argue he’s at least as good as Trea Turner is there right now (Kieboom has worse range but can make more throws), so the short- and long-term fit here may be different. Regardless of the defensive home, Kieboom projects as a middle of the order bat with All-Star talent.

Garcia didn’t have a great statistical 2019, but he was a teenager at Double-A so we’re not weighing that heavily. We care most about Garcia’s ability to hit, and that remains strong. His swing and feel for contact are both very similar to Juan Soto‘s, though of course Garcia lacks that kind of raw thump or plate discipline. Garcia’s a proactive swinger but so far his advanced feel for the barrel has allowed it to work. Most of his extra-base damage is going to come via doubles slashed down the left field line and to the opposite field gap, but there’s a 20 home run ceiling here if he learns to attack the right pitches.

A little thicker and slower than most shortstops, Garcia’s hands and actions are good and he’s probably a better fit at second base. We have him projected as an average everyday player there.

After an up-and-down freshman year at Arkansas, Rutledge transferred to Houston-area junior college powerhouse San Jacinto and immediately looked like a first-round pick, even before the season started. He had trouble getting on the mound in Fayetteville in part due to his command, which still isn’t great, but he has more than enough feel to throw his high-octane stuff over the plate and most lower level hitters can’t handle it. Rutledge is a physical monster at 6-foot-8 and 260 pounds, and has an arm swing familiar to those who saw Lucas Giolito‘s arm action adjustment, typically en vogue with the weighted ball community.

Rutledge has some of the best stuff on Earth, working 96–100 in most outings and mixing in a 65- or 70-grade slider with a curveball a notch below that. His changeup flashes average but is clearly a fourth option, and his command flashes average at times, but should always be somewhat of an issue given his size. Refining the command to be good enough to let his stuff work over long outings is the main development issue here, but it’s worth noting that some clubs were scared off of Rutledge’s medical in the draft, which most notably included surgery on both hips. This could go down the “no one can throw that hard, be that big, and be a healthy 200-inning starter” road, and see Rutledge become a potential closer, or the “how did anyone pass on this offensive lineman with Syndergaard’s stuff” path, and get immediate whoopsies from the industry, much like Nate Pearson has so far. Regardless, he’ll be fun to watch.

There are some long-term health questions with Crowe — his market was diluted by knee and elbow concerns coming out of high school, he’s a bigger-bodied guy, and he blew out about halfway through his sophomore year at South Carolina — but he’s ready for a big league rotation right now. Crowe has above-average stuff, his fastball and pair of breaking balls are all capable of missing bats, and we’ve seen good changeups from him, too. He has imprecise control of everything, and instead just tries to bully hitters with a pretty even mix of the repertoire in competitive locations. He resembles Tanner Roark in many ways and projects to be a starter of similar quality, probably beginning at some point next year.

Denaburg had a loud spring as a high school senior, when he went pitch-for-pitch with Carter Stewart in two showdowns and both became first-round picks. Each has had his troubles since then. Denaburg’s pro debut didn’t happen after signing last summer, as the biceps tendonitis that dinged his draft stock flared up again after signing. In 2019, it looked like he would get to Low-A at some point, but his velocity ticked down and the Nationals held him back in extended ball. Once he built back up (92-94, touching 95 mph) he was set to go to short-season and then Low-A to finish the year. But then he felt something in his shoulder, which led to him being shut down again and never leaving Florida.

At his best, Denaburg would sit 93-95, hit 98 mph, mix in a consistently 60- or 65-grade curveball and an emerging 55-grade changeup with the size and athleticism scouts can project near the front of a rotation. After two years of inconsistent health, expectations are lower, but between Denaburg, Rutledge, and Romero, there is some pretty goofy stuff bouncing around this system; it’ll be exciting if one of them puts it together fully in 2020.

Lara is a bigger, mature-framed pitcher with present velocity. He already sits 92-94, so it’s less of a problem that he lacks traditional physical projection. However, it’s also feasible that Lara becomes more fluid and athletic as he matures, so maybe he’ll back into more velocity that way. Many other traits typical of top high school pitchers — arm action, glove side fastball/slider command, and the slider quality — are also promising here, just without obvious physical projection.

Yean has stuff typical of most late first or early second round high school arms. He has a fairly projectable frame, his heater reaches the mid-90s, there’s precocious changeup and slider feel, and Yean goes right at hitters. He was targeted by sellers at the deadline and has mid-rotation upside.

Cronin has Greg Holland’s build (scaled up a little bit) and arm slot, creating big time carry on his heater, which touches 97. He also has a power, overhand curveball that’s already consistently plus. While at Arkansas, one of Cronin’s teammates would smack him across the face before he entered games. We don’t know if that tradition has continued in pro ball, but as long as he throws strikes and the stuff stays the same, Cronin is a potential high-leverage reliever.

Cate has long been compared to Tim Collins as a smallish power lefty with mid-90s heat in short stints and a knockout breaking ball. Cate was first seen by most scouts in relief for two summers for College Team USA but was always a starter for UConn. His 92-95 mph heater in relief was more 88-92 mph in the rotation and he had forearm tightness early in his draft spring, along with a Tommy John surgery in high school. We mention that amateur background because it’s still the conversation around Cate. The Nats hope he’s still a league-average starter and think some added weight may increase his stamina. But plenty of evaluators just want to see Cate in the role where he’s stood out most (and arguably the role where his arm injuries suggest he belongs), working an inning or two at a time in relief.

The beginning of any story with Romero starts with his background, which includes a litany of off-field issues that pushed a top-10 overall talent to the end of the first round and, most recently, Tommy John surgery. Nationals officials are cautiously optimistic in their accounts of how Romero has been lately, saying his on- and off-field behavior is improving and his physical condition (not always the best) is in a good spot. He returned from surgery to pitch in the instructional league and sat 93-95 mph, throwing strikes. His changeup had moved ahead of his slider just before he blew out and sliders often are the last pitch to come back after surgery, so a fastball-changeup combo will be the main weapons for Romero as he returns on a pitch and innings count.

Due to the innings limitation as he builds back up, there’s a shot that Romero could be fast-tracked in the bullpen if he stays healthy, out of trouble, and in line with his considerable talent. There are some similarities between Romero and Red Sox left-hander Jay Groome: While they’ve both been dogged by makeup issues and TJ surgery, everything seems to be trending the right direction now. Both are 40 FVs at the moment but could be 50s by the end of the year if everything comes together.

Mendoza had some No. 1 overall pick buzz early in his high school senior spring, but ultimately faded a bit down the stretch and his big price tag (plus Scott Boras) led to him enrolling at Florida State, where those concerns played out for three years. Mendoza has massive raw power and a borderline passive late-count approach, which leads to a healthy heaping of true three outcomes. Along with the patient approach, scouts either complain or simply point out Mendoza’s on-field demeanor, which runs from “low blood pressure” to “disinterested.” He looked less like a third baseman over time at Florida State, and the Nationals plan to play Mendoza at first base most of the time going forward. There’s still some projection left: Mendoza could have 70 raw power with a high on-base percentage when he gets to the big leagues, but the margin for error is low and could lead to a platoon role.

Tommy John and some nagging lower body issues limited Antuna to three GCL games and instructs in the DR. He looked a little thicker during instructs, and it’s more likely that he ends up at third base now, but the rest of the profile is the same: He’s still a switch-hitting middle infielder with a pretty, low-ball swing and a frame that might yield considerable raw power. He’s age-appropriate for the Penn League (and starting him in Extended seems smart) but he might skip ahead to full-season ball next spring.

De La Rosa popped up quickly after signing for $300,000 last summer (normally below our radar on signing day) and standing out in stateside instructs. He had a solid pro debut this summer in the GCL as a 17-year-old, and the tools are still present as well: solid average speed, an improved arm that shows average, a chance to play in center field, and average raw power that could improve in the coming years. For those wondering who the next elite international position player prospect will be in this system, he and Roimar Quintana are the new young bats to watch.

A physical young catcher with some pull power, Pineda has been pushed through the minors quickly so far. He went straight to the GCL at age 17, then to a Penn League packed with 21-year-olds at age 18, then to full-season ball in 2019, all for someone who won’t turn 20 until April. He took an offensive dip at least in part because he was playing through a broken finger all year. We still think he’s a bat-first backup, but he has a puncher’s chance to be a regular.

Washington moved Adon into the rotation after he had spent his first two pro seasons in the bullpen, and his velocity dipped a bit during the second half of the year. He has a graceful delivery that he struggles to repeat, which impacts his breaking ball quality and command enough for us to project him in relief. In the bullpen he might sit 94-plus with serious movement, which, even with relatively tepid offspeed projection, puts him in a valuable relief role.

Quintana signed for $820,000 in the Nats’ 2019 July 2nd class as one of three high-dollar signings, behind Lara and left-hander Pablo Aldonis. Quintana made a solid first impression domestically in the instructional league. He’s an average runner with an average arm and above average raw power. He has a well-developed 6-foot, 205 pound frame that reminds some of Marcell Ozuna or a number of Cuban outfielders, but Washington thinks Quintana can play center field for awhile, maybe even long enough to be an everyday player there in the big leagues. With no organized games to go off of, we’re projecting a lot on the bat, but his swing path is direct, there’s raw strength, and he’s already showing opposite field BP power.

Many BYU prospects have an uphill battle to climb against draft models because their Mormon mission takes them away from baseball for a year, and makes them much older than their peers when they’re finally draft eligible. We weren’t really on Cluff pre-draft, but he performed during the summer and his eclectic collection of tools, feel to hit, lefty stick, and the likelihood that he stays on the dirt have him looking like a high-floor bench infielder already, and he’s trending up.

The brawny Read has a long track record of hitting — he’s hit .270 with some pop over the course of several upper-minors seasons — mired somewhat by a 2018 PED suspension. He struggles with righty breaking balls away from him but mashes lefties. His receiving has improved enough that he can catch pitchers who don’t live in the dirt, which makes him a potential third catcher/26th man type who clubs lefties off the bench and starts at first base once in a while.

Bourque and his beat-walking cop mustache ascended through the minor league ranks after he moved to the bullpen and shelved his changeup back in 2018. The Nationals forced him to work only with his fastball during 2018 instructs, and liked enough of what they saw that they put him on the 40-man. He’s a stiff, upright, arm strength relief prospect.

Dyson’s career has been a rollercoaster: lower-profile Gator recruit, breakout freshman, pegged as a potential 1-1 before his sophomore year, then two years and a Cape summer of inconsistent stuff, command, and performance without a major injury. His velo trended back up into the mid-90’s before the draft and the Nationals popped him in the fifth round; he then had a solid pro debut. He’s a sleeper in that he’s showed Top 100 ability — which makes some who see him think there’s a breakout coming — but it’s appeared inconsistently enough that we think he’ll likely wind up in middle relief.

Schaller would have been a draft-eligible sophomore at Vanderbilt, but he lost his true freshman season to Tommy John, so he was a rare draft-eligible redshirt freshman instead. Pitching out of the bullpen in college, Schaller was 94-97. He’s been more 91-94 as a starter in pro ball, but we have him projected as a two-pitch reliever and think the heater will have an extra gear in single-inning outings.