Here’s Some Lower-Ranked Prospects We Love
When publishing our lists — and, in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s. This post represents our best attempt to answer that question.
When attempting to decide which prospects to include here, we ended up with a collection mostly of 45 Future Value players with some 40s mixed in. We’ve separated those players into groups or “types” to make it a little more digestible.
The aim for us here is to focus on guys who we like, but to whom we can’t yet give a 50 FV because they haven’t done enough. Think of them like stocks we are buying. (Or, does that make it insider trading since the measure of success is our own rankings?)
Lower-Level Starting Pitchers
Pitchers who project to be solid MLB starters and who have already proven themselves to some degree in the upper minors tend to be rated a 50 FV or better, rendering them ineligible for this list. The starting prospects here are all lower-level arms and various shades of one type: guys with electric stuff, who have a chance to start, but who face questions about whether they can do it long term. Some are more electric than others and Paddack, for example, doesn’t fit that description: he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery and his best pitch is his changeup. Without surgery, he likely would’ve posted strong enough numbers to appear on the actual top 100.
Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins
Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Minnesota Twins
D.L. Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Luis Medina, RHP, New York Yankees
Tobias Myers, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Paddack, RHP, San Diego Padres
Cionel Perez, LHP, Houston Astros
Hector Perez, RHP, Houston Astros
JoJo Romero, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Jose Soriano, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Catchers
This group is mostly composed of bat-first, fringe catchers who don’t have such dominant profiles that you’re fine with them at first base if they can’t catch. If they can, on the other hand, they’ll be quite valuable. Cumberland has the best bat of those guys but also the most work to do behind the plate. Haase and Stephenson have big raw power and swing-and-miss issues, and will both be old for the level next year (although Stephenson, who has lost reps due to injury, is a candidate to get promoted artificially). Melendez and Rogers are potentially elite defensive catchers with contact issues that kept them off this year’s list, but they’re good bets to be on next year’s iteration.
William Contreras, Atlanta Braves
Brett Cumberland, Atlanta Braves
M.J. Melendez, Kansas City Royals
Eric Haase, Cleveland Indians
Andrew Knizner, St. Louis Cardinals
Jake Rogers, Detroit Tigers
Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
Lower-Level Corner Infielders
Most of the members of this group have huge raw power or, as with Cruz and Diaz, project to grow into absurd amounts of it. Santana quieted a cacophonous (but highly entertaining) swing that allowed his plus bat speed to play better in games last year. There are scouts who saw Vilade in pro ball who think he can stay at short, but we still have him projected to third base and think he has a chance to hit and hit for power. Most of the guys on this list, though, will be power-only beasts.
Oneil Cruz, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Lewin Diaz, 1B, Minnesota Twins
Dermis Garcia, 1B, New York Yankees
Jhailyn Ortiz, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
Hudson Potts, 3B, San Diego Padres
Cristian Santana, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ryan Vilade, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Colton Welker, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Lower-Level Middle Infielders
We’re hoping several of these players undergo physical maturation that enables their tools to tick up a bit. Vidal Brujan, Wander Javier, Ronny Mauricio, and even Lucius Fox are all highly skilled infielders who should be top-100 prospects next year if they add physicality. Chisholm, Downs, and Severino are all bat-first players on the fringe of sticking at short, and they can either prove their ability to remain there or just hit enough for us not to care. Either development would get them to next year’s 100. Arias and Gimenez were left off this year’s list because there’s some doubt about the upside, but they’re both pretty stable prospects who’ll probably make the list as they climb the minor-league ladder.
Gabriel Arias, San Diego Padres
Vidal Brujan, Tampa Bay Rays
Willi Castro, Cleveland Indians
Jazz Chisholm, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jeter Downs, Cincinnati Reds
Luis Garcia, Washington Nationals
Andres Gimenez, New York Mets
Lucius Fox, Tampa Bay Rays
Wander Javier, Minnesota Twins
Ronny Mauricio, New York Mets
Yunior Severino, Minnesota Twins
Performers Staring Us in the Face
This ended up being a catch-all for players of multiple positions and then one, lone pitcher. In either case, it’s defined by prospects who put up solid numbers but who, for whatever reason — the toolset or length of track record — haven’t shown enough yet to receive a 50 FV mark. Haseley and Smith were just top-10 overall picks, but Smith is a contact-first first baseman with limited upside and Haseley has a funky swing and some think he’s a fourth outfielder. Deichmann and Rooker were also in the most recent draft. They have easy plus power but also fringey contact and a corner defensive profile. Another year of raking may get them on the list. Avila is a smallish righty with good numbers and three pitches that flash above average.
Pedro Avila, RHP, San Diego Padres
Greg Deichmann, RF, Oakland Athletics
Adam Haseley, CF, Philadelphia Phillies
Kevin Kramer, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Joe McCarthy, RF, Tampa Bay Rays
Brent Rooker, LF, Minnesota Twins
Pavin Smith, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
LaMonte Wade, LF, Minnesota Twins
Lower-Level Outfielders
Try not to get light-headed after being exposed to so many high-upside names in consecutive order. The names with asterisks (*) are relatively liberal bets to stay in center field. Most of these prospects possess huge power but have also generated concerns about swing and miss. We either like the tools enough not to care about the strikeouts (Adolfo, Beck, Benson, Heredia, Ramos, Thompson, and Velasquez) or we saw adjustments last year that indicate they’re going to make more contact moving forward (Baddoo, Gonzalez, Lazarito, Whitley). Celestino, Hill, Sanchez, and Wilson are on the list because they can all go get it in center field, and Hill and Wilson made what we think are substantive offensive adjustments that will carry into next season.
Micker Adolfo, Chicago White Sox
Lazaro Armenteros, Oakland Athletics
Akil Baddoo, Minnesota Twins
*Austin Beck, Oaklnd Athletics
Will Benson, Cleveland Indians
*Gilberto Celestino, Houston Astros
Pedro Gonzalez, Texas Rangers
*Starling Heredia, Los Angeles Dodgers
*Derek Hill, Detroit Tigers
*Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
*Lolo Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
*Bubba Thompson, Texas Rangers
Nelson Velazquez, Chicago Cubs
Garrett Whitley, Tampa Bay Rays
*Marcus Wilson, Arizona Diamondbacks
*****
We don’t necessarily think these next two groups will ever appear on a top-100 list because they don’t excel by WAR-based analysis, but these are minor leaguers we’ve identified either as quick-moving relievers who could become a 50 FV in the big leagues in 2018 or super-utility types who reflect some of the progressive player usage we’re seeing or anticipating across baseball, maybe even working into a 50 FV-type player in the big leagues.
Close-to-the-Big-Leagues Relievers
This is the list of dudes who will likely all get some kind of MLB chance next year and have the stuff to do a little better than you’d expect from some guy you heard might be okay. In the “ridiculous stuff” category, we have Alvarado, Graham, Maples, Minter, Rainey, and Scott. Pitchers who are less electric but also offer three or four usable pitches and some feel include Loaisiga, Merryweather, Romero, and Sheffield. They’re not all guaranteed to slot in as closer, but all of them are likely to miss bats. In most cases, these guys closed last year in Double-A or higher. Regarding Romero, specifically, he’s a candidate to get rushed to the big league as a power reliever given the Nationals’ competitive position.
Jose Alvarado, LHR, Tampa Bay Rays
Josh Graham, RHR, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Loaisiga, RHR, New York Yankees
Dillon Maples, RHR, Chicago Cubs
Julian Merryweather, RHR, Cleveland Indians
A.J. Minter, LHR, Atlanta Braves
Tanner Rainey, RHR, Cincinnati Reds
Seth Romero, LHR, Washington Nationals
Tanner Scott, LHR, Baltimore Orioles
Jordan Sheffield, RHR, Los Angeles Dodgers
Utility Players
Right off the bat you should notice that four of these guys can sort of catch. Morgan, Stubbs and Wong are all twitchy athletes who we think can play several positions (only Stubbs hasn’t yet) and catch a couple times per week. We also like the bat-to-ball ability of those three guys and think catching them part-time means they don’t wear out like most catcher bats do. Essentially, if you’re looking for the next Austin Barnes, we think it’s one of these guys. Robinson is kind of a freak athlete who can play everywhere and has surprising raw power.
Victor Caratini, Chicago Cubs
Josh Morgan, Texas Rangers
Drew Robinson, Texas Rangers
Garrett Stubbs, Houston Astors
Connor Wong, Los Angeles Dodgers
Wow, the fact that the Mets’ #1 prospect is considered a “lower-ranked prospect” is pretty telling of the state of their current system.
Well, I guess Peter Alonso will be king of the fringe five this season!
I’m more surprised last year’s first round pick Peterson (ranked in the top 60 by Keith Law) wasn’t included here at all. More surprising still that just yesterday in the chat Longenhagen said he was “on Gimenez and Peterson as 50s.” I’m curious what their concerns are now on him.
If Peterson is a 50, he wouldn’t be included here.
I’m guessing based on the question that he meant Peterson could be a 50 next year? I suppose we’ll just have to hope they offer more insight in next week’s chat.
Oh look, another list Mickey Moniak couldn’t make.
Is Moniak a 30FV guy now? Can Carson Cistulli find something interesting about Mickey Moniak to make him a Cistulli’s Guy?
It sounds funny to use the expression “how the mighty have fallen” on such a young guy as Moniak…but…
Mariners didn’t even get one on this list…
Which is weird, because Kyle Lewis and Evan White are certainly interesting.
Giants, too (Heliot Ramos), although I’ve seen him in other top 100’s, usually around 75. Still….
Ramos was on the ‘other 50FVs’ list appended to the top 100. He’s higher than the guys here.
I’m kind of surprised that Tyler Wade isn’t listed here.
He lost eligibility
A prospect that I’m surprised isn’t getting more love is Nolan Jones.
*He has a strong pedigree, only falling to the second round due to signability concerns.
*He’s had very high walk rates in both of his minor league seasons (17.2% and 16.2%), a skill that I would expect him to maintain as he progresses through the system.
*He showed significant improvement in his second season, hitting for a higher average and more power while drastically reducing his strikeouts.
Seems like the two primary concerns are lack of home run power and defense at 3rd. I think the home run concerns are overstated given his size (6’4) and the fact that he’s already shown a significant improvement in that area.
I do agree that defense is a legitimate concern. But even if he has to move to first or a corner outfield, the high walk rates give him a solid floor in my opinion. And if the power and/or defense come around, then his ceiling is very, very high.
Personally, I’d rate Jones as the 3rd best prospect in the Indians system, behind Mejia and McKenzie. Not sure what I’m missing.
Probably because “patience” in the low minors players have a mixed record.
I think he’s probably worth a second look, at the least.
Hmmm…do you have a link to a study that shows that?
Not really, but it is something Chris Mitchell has found doing work for KATOH. I’d check there.
Intuitively, it makes sense. Being able to take a walk against guys with 30 command is way easier than for guys with 50 command.
I did some digging of my own and found a series of studies by Chris St. John at Beyond The Box Score.
It’s hard to draw any definitive conclusions because of small sample sizes. But it appears that patient hitters are actually MORE likely to be successful than less patient ones, particularly if they’re in their teens in Rookie or Short Season A Ball (as Jones was).
Rookie: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/9/23/4762602/success-rates-for-rookie-league-prospects-based-on-walk-and-strikeout
Short Season A: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/9/30/4787752/success-rates-for-short-season-a-league-prospects-based-on-walk-and
Beyond that, I’d note that St. John classified players as having a high walk rate if their walk rate was about 10.5% or above. Jones has been well above that cutoff (16.2 and 17.2%) which means that his walk rate can drop significantly and he’ll still have an above average walk rate.
On top of that, Jones is more than just a patient hitter. He’s hit for average (.317 last year, .297 overall), has developed into a doubles/triples hitter with the possibility of more power to come, and (at least for now) is still playing a premium defensive position.
The walk rates are a plus but those mediocre power, great patience guys often take a hit in mlb.
Basically that is the tyler white profile, ok contact skill, tons of walks and like 15 HR power.
That player will walk in the majors too but then those 16% walks become 10% against better pitchers which is still good but not super exciting by a 15 hr/270 average first baseman.
Plate discipline always helps but as the primary tool without a second good one it doesn’t really play.
The huge walk guys in mlb have a good eye but usually also 60+ game power. Adam Dunn had a good eye but he could also do damage if you throw it too fat which forced pitchers out of the middle.
Billy Hamilton has a good eye too (lower career o swing than kris bryant and miggy) but he only walks like 6% because pitchers pound the middle of the zone without a danger.
“Basically that is the tyler white profile, ok contact skill, tons of walks and like 15 HR power.”
Jones was 3-4 years younger than White at the same levels. Which means that Jones has a LOT more room for development than White did. And for lots of players power is the last thing to develop. Plus his walk rate was about double that of Whites’ at the same levels.
“That player will walk in the majors too but then those 16% walks become 10% against better pitchers”
I’d love to see some evidence for declining walk rates as players age through the minor league system. A quick check shows that the walk rate in the New York Penn League (where Jones played last year) was the exact same as the walk rate in the American League.
Yeah, so I’m pretty agnostic about whether Nolan Jones is worthy of being a “noteworthy 45” or whatever he is. emh gives some pretty good reasons to think he’ll grow into more power, and he seems to have good contact, etc.
So here are two players who had huge walk rates in the minor leagues–Tyler Flowers and Robbie Grossman.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5254&position=OF
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9134&position=C
Both of these guys are good players. But Flowers lost his walk rate as he went up the ladder, and Grossman didn’t. We want players to me more like Grossman, but most are like Tyler Flowers (actually, most of these guys are like Cord Phelps, but that’s for another day).
So yeah, I wouldn’t put too much stock in that by itself. The potential for power and cutting down his strikeout rate are much more positive indicators.
Tyler white walked 16% in AA and AAA which means much more. I’m not saying he is a better prospect than jones but generally lower minors walk rates don’t mean that much. Remember mike olt?
Mitchell said walk rates don’t become significant until high A ball
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/katoh-forecasting-a-hitters-major-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/
Of course low minors walk rates on average aren’t higher because hitters are also less patient but an advanced hitter has an advantage there and less room to grow with the pitchers that advance too.
This ability to recognize pitches that are just outside of the zone translates better in the upper levels and MLB because pitchers tend to stay in and around the zone. I heard a few people mention that Zack Collins struggles in 2017 (87 walks vs 86 hits) were in part due to the pitchers he was facing in high A. He removed a hitch and should be better in 2018, albeit facing pitchers who are better at staying in and around the zone.
Anecdotal evidence is something that really should be discarded. Would you really be swayed by a poorly conducted study? You can find a study that will show you whatever you want to see.
I think they want to see what he’s able to do in full season before touting him too much with his perceived lack of power.
Marc Hulet wrote the following about him back in December on Roto graphs.
“The Sleeper: Nolan Jones, 3B: You haven’t reach much about Jones yet but that might chance in 2018 when he moves up to full-season ball for the first time. The 19-year-old third baseman produced a .430 on-base percentage in 2017 in short-season ball thanks to a 16% walk rate and .317 batting average. The average is due for some regression thanks to his .417 BABIP and 22% strikeout rate but he has the frame (6-4, 190 pounds) and the line-drive pop (22 LD%) to grow into some serious power. Jones looks like a future stud at the hot corner and he has the defensive tools to stick there.”
The walk rate is a plus but probably not more. Eric is asked in every chat why plate discipline isn’t a tool and he always answers that it is very dependent on the level of play.
I would add half a grade to the hit tool for good plate discipline and substract the same amount for bad plate discipline but that is about it.
Sure if he developes power he is likely a top100 but I wouldn’t give him a huge boost just based on walk rate and the chance add power right now.
These lists appear to be in alphabetical order, which somewhat frustrates my ability to complain. I will say though that I’m a bit surprised by the Braves’ catcher that is not on this list: Alex Jackson. He seems like a perfect fit for the “if he can catch he’ll be good” category.
I’ve asked about him before, but what is the consensus on Yonny Chirinos?
Had a 2.74 ERA in AAA last year. Isn’t a big K guy, but had a 13.9% SwStr% to go with a 22% K rate. The kicker though is that he doesn’t walk people. 4.0% BB% last year, and generally in the minors has kept his HR/FB < 9%, with a brief 27 IP in AA last year being the outlier.
He's only 24, and seems to be going largely under the radar. Is he just a Cistulli guy? Or is there more there?
There is major concern that his off-speed pitches aren’t near good enough.
Nolan Jones? Shane Bieber?
Bashlor not in the close to the majors RPs is a mild surprise given the inclusion of that category.
How close/far was JB Bukauskas from this list?
He was a 50 FV grade prospect that barely missed the Top 100 prospects, and is valued higher than the 40/45 FV grade prospects listed here.
Two of my favorites are here: Garrett Stubbs and Lolo Sanchez. If I was a GM trying to trade with the Astros or Pirates, those are guys I’d look at. Brett Cumberland too–he’s going to be a first baseman but the bat is good.
I’m a little surprised Deichmann and Rooker aren’t ranked higher (in the FV50 range), since guys with power like that are the sorts of guys that evaluators love (with the hope that eventually they figure everything out with contact). I think if you’re going to take a chance on the Monte Harrisons of the world figuring out contact, we should probably do the same with Deichmann and Rooker (although Harrison is obviously more valuable defensively).
Garrett Hampson?
I’m a little surprised that Chance Sisco doesn’t even make the “interesting catchers” list. He’s about to turn 23, hit throughout the minors with control of the strikezone, had a brilliant cup of coffee in September. Do you think he’s not a catcher?
He was honorable mention on the other list.
Great list, love Dermis Garcia who has massive power, and Joe McCarthy, who looks like Josh Reddick 2.0.
No love for Peter Alonso? What’s preventing him from being a big league 1B?
Enjoying the Prospects coverage. I was hoping to see Jake Burger make the list. Any thoughts on him? I recently drafted him in a new dynasty (i have him and Erceg).
Really surprised Romero made it over Wander Suero. Obviously Romero has the stuff but it’s hard to imagine Suero doesn’t appear in the majors next year.
Even more surprised that Daniel Johnson doesn’t appear either. He has tools and put them to use last year.
No Zack Collins?
He is in their top 100
I’m a dope. Missed that. I’d downvote myself if I could.
I guess I’ll ask….
No Seby Zavala?
as a typical White Sox fan, I’ll say that this is a typical White Sox fan move . . . (I mean, even Wheel of Fortune is dissin’ us). But I double-checked the top 100 before complaining.
I love this kind of article, and this whole week. Just bummed there was no little sentence blurb on Willi Castro and Luis Garcia (Nats) in the MI grouping. Anything to add after the fact?
Man, there are some sweet names in that middle infielder list.
As a Mariners fan, I’m not entirely surprised, but still disappointed that there are literally no Mariners prospects in the top 100 or even in this article. Maybe they really should just go for it, all out, this year and try to get lucky and catch a wild card spot, and then go into full tanking mode after it inevitably fails. It seems like that might be their best chance of making the playoffs within the next 10 years.
I was going to moan about the sorry state of the Texas system until I read this.
Kyle Lewis, Evan White, Sam Carlson, and Bradon Bishop are all solid prospects. I’m surprised Lewis wasn’t mentioned anywhere, but he’s had a slow recovery from his surgery.
The Mariners look maxed out as it is. Maybe something changes at the deadline, but they don’t really have the chips to get an elite player that could be a major difference maker. If the situation is desperate, I would think that a partial teardown would be in order. Maybe try to move Paxton, Diaz, Cruz, and Seager.
Knizner at catcher does not fit the “bat-first, fringe catchers” description; initially a 3b in college, he later moved behind the plate, and when the Cardinals drafted him in 2016 he was still learning the position but has developed well with great results—throwing out 45% (35 of 77) of base stealers and allowing just 3 pb in 665 innings in 2017—while also being an excellent all-fields hitter with decent power.
He’s a year younger than the more-highly touted Carson Kelly and should start 2018 in AAA, and of the two, long-term, I’d rather have Knizner.
First of all, thank you for your work.
As an Indians fan, I wonder how far off Nolan Jones was and am a little surprised that you mention both Benson and Haase over him.
Thanks for this terrific perspective! We don’t lack for top-100 lists…but we don’t have much insight into this tier of players. This discussion fills an informational void, and also sheds light on farm system depth (e.g. the Twins, who have only a few backend top-100 players but 40/45 FV guys in almost every category here). I like it.
So I was going to play the “what about” game, too, and ask about Larry Sheets and Jake Burger . . . but re-reading the intro, I guess this should not be taken as the “just missed the top 100” list.
So I wonder — have you considered a “just missed” list, or top 200 (perhaps unranked)? Feels like a gap in the coverage.
ok, I see it now way at the bottom of the top 100 list.
Does this mean that all 50fv players were listed either in the Top 100 or the “others considered” list?
wow, the Red Sox has then 97 and 98 ranked Prospect and then nobody else
No Jalen Beeks? No Tanner Houck? No Darwinaon or ty buttrey? CJ catham? Ockimey.. one wonders why you guys haven’t listed the Red Sox as the worst farm system in the league
Cubs and Red Sox fans just trying to stay off the ledge until Thursday
Aramis Ademan was a 50FV on Eric’s Cubs list in November but no mention of him yet this week. I wonder why.
It’s not a bright world when Aramis Ademan is your beacon of hope.
As a sox fan – hard not to freak out when you see this and other farm system lists littered with AL East names.
There’s lots of young cost-controlled talent in the bigs, so I suspect CHC and BOS to appear prominently on those lists tomorrow. But considering NYY major league team is ALSO filled with young studs, is probably already better than Boston in 2018, and then seeing all the AL East names on these lists? Hard to trust the process.
At least chris sale is ridiculously fun to watch.
He will do well in KATOH and even KATOH+ rankings.
Jhailyn Ortiz is an 18 year old who put up the .300, .400, .500. Sure, he gets a ding for likely being a 1B only prospect (currently plays RF) but the bat profiles as special.
A 40 grade seems low. I didn’t expect him to make the top 100 but did expect a 45 grade and perhaps an honorable mention. BA did identify him as a prospect who could make a big jump on next seasons list.
Being in A ball makes Kiley discredit him and not having a bunch of tools makes Eric not value him. He’s the exact type of prospect that Eric/Kiley would value lower than most. This isn’t to say these two don’t do great work or that they are definitely wrong here. Just surprised by the 40 grade.
No love for Isaac Paredes or Aramis Ademan? Rue the day!
Great prospect content this week! Thanks!
Is Jose Alvarado rookie eligible still as he has been on the 25-man roster for more than 45 days prior to the expanded rosters period, I think? Or do you operate with a different eligibility process that’s just less than 50 MLB innnings pitched?
The lower level OF list is straight sex appeal. The RP list is money. Thanks guys cool way to answer all those “if you had to pick…”, “which guy would you bump up…”.
🙁 no more Jays to read about