2018 Top 100 KATOH Prospects
Below is KATOH’s 2018 top-100 prospect list. If you’re a regular FanGraphs reader, you likely know the drill by now. But in case you need a refresher, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for a player’s first six major-league seasons. It incorporates age, offensive performance, defensive performance, and other characteristics from the past two seasons. There are certainly drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objectivity, the projections can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated.
I have made a few updates this time around. KATOH now features:
- The batted-ball data (for both hitters and pitchers) available on our awesome leaderboards. Among other things, this helps KATOH differentiate between fluky and un-fluky high- and low-BABIP hitters.
- A greater reliance on recent data for the construction of the model and less dependence on data points from 10-plus years ago.
- Numbers from the Dominican Summer League, which was previously outside of KATOH’s scope
Astute readers might notice that this article does not include a top-100 for KATOH+, the version of KATOH that incorporates scouting grades in addition to the stats. Since Kiley and Eric are still working their way through the organizational lists, I don’t have up-to-date FV grades for every prospect. Rather than plugging in FV grades from a year ago (or more), I am holding off on KATOH+ for now.
Below is a top-100 list that considers all prospects who recorded at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last year. Below that is a short list of players with 100-199 PA/BF whose small-sample performances yielded a top-100 projection. Enjoy!
KATOH’s 2018 Top 100 List
| Rank | Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuna | ATL | CF | 13.3 |
| 2 | Carson Kelly | STL | C | 12.1 |
| 3 | Michael Kopech | CHW | RHS | 11.8 |
| 4 | Kyle Tucker | HOU | CF | 11.3 |
| 5 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | SS | 10.6 |
| 6 | Zack Granite | MIN | CF | 10.4 |
| 7 | Bo Bichette | TOR | SS | 10.3 |
| 8 | Trent Grisham | MIL | RF | 10.1 |
| 9 | Jake Bauers | TB | LF | 10.1 |
| 10 | J.P. Crawford | PHI | SS | 9.7 |
| 11 | Lewis Brinson | MIA | CF | 9.3 |
| 12 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | RHS | 9.3 |
| 13 | Willy Adames | TB | SS | 9.1 |
| 14 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | SS | 8.9 |
| 15 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 3B | 8.8 |
| 16 | Daz Cameron | DET | CF | 8.3 |
| 17 | Jake Rogers | DET | C | 8.2 |
| 18 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 3B | 8.0 |
| 19 | Cole Tucker | PIT | SS | 7.9 |
| 20 | Luis Urias | SD | SS | 7.7 |
| 21 | Willi Castro | CLE | SS | 7.7 |
| 22 | Alex Verdugo | LA | CF | 7.7 |
| 23 | Royce Lewis | MIN | SS | 7.6 |
| 24 | Nick Senzel | CIN | 3B | 7.6 |
| 25 | Forrest Whitley | HOU | RHS | 7.3 |
| Rank | Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
| 26 | Tyler Wade | NYY | SS | 7.3 |
| 27 | Austin Meadows | PIT | CF | 7.2 |
| 28 | Wes Rogers | COL | LF | 7.2 |
| 29 | A.J. Puk | OAK | LHS | 7.2 |
| 30 | Harrison Bader | STL | CF | 7.0 |
| 31 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | LF | 6.9 |
| 32 | Mitch Garver | MIN | C | 6.7 |
| 33 | Alexander Canario | SF | RF | 6.7 |
| 34 | Francisco Mejia | CLE | C | 6.7 |
| 35 | Victor Caratini | CHC | C | 6.7 |
| 36 | Brent Honeywell | TB | RHS | 6.5 |
| 37 | Franklin Barreto | OAK | SS | 6.5 |
| 38 | Dustin Fowler | OAK | CF | 6.4 |
| 39 | Victor Robles | WAS | CF | 6.3 |
| 40 | LaMonte Wade | MIN | LF | 5.7 |
| 41 | Franchy Cordero | SD | CF | 5.7 |
| 42 | Mike Soroka | ATL | RHS | 5.6 |
| 43 | Alec Hansen | CHW | RHS | 5.6 |
| 44 | Scott Kingery | PHI | 2B | 5.6 |
| 45 | Jack Flaherty | STL | RHS | 5.6 |
| 46 | Mitch Keller | PIT | RHS | 5.5 |
| 47 | Anthony Alford | TOR | CF | 5.5 |
| 48 | Cole Ragans | TEX | LHS | 5.2 |
| 49 | Mike Tauchman | COL | CF | 5.1 |
| 50 | Anthony Banda | ARI | LHS | 5.1 |
| Rank | Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
| 51 | Danny Jansen | TOR | C | 5.1 |
| 52 | Blake Perkins | WAS | CF | 5.1 |
| 53 | Leody Taveras | TEX | CF | 5.0 |
| 54 | Josh Lowe | TB | CF | 5.0 |
| 55 | Walker Buehler | LA | RHS | 5.0 |
| 56 | D.J. Stewart | BAL | LF | 5.0 |
| 57 | Jacob Stallings | PIT | C | 5.0 |
| 58 | Garrett Hampson | COL | 2B | 5.0 |
| 59 | Kyle Young | PHI | LHS | 5.0 |
| 60 | Tanner Scott | BAL | LHR | 5.0 |
| 61 | Charcer Burks | CHC | LF | 5.0 |
| 62 | Chance Adams | NYY | RHS | 5.0 |
| 63 | Ryan Castellani | COL | RHS | 4.9 |
| 64 | Michel Baez | SD | RHS | 4.8 |
| 65 | Chris Flexen | NYM | RHS | 4.7 |
| 66 | Stephen Gonsalves | MIN | LHS | 4.7 |
| 67 | Bryse Wilson | ATL | RHS | 4.7 |
| 68 | Luiz Gohara | ATL | LHS | 4.7 |
| 69 | Jay Groome | BOS | LHS | 4.7 |
| 70 | Dylan Cozens | PHI | RF | 4.6 |
| 71 | Yu-Cheng Chang | CLE | SS | 4.6 |
| 72 | Oscar Mercado | STL | CF | 4.5 |
| 73 | Lolo Sanchez | PIT | CF | 4.4 |
| 74 | Austin Hays | BAL | CF | 4.4 |
| 75 | Daulton Varsho | ARI | C | 4.4 |
| Rank | Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
| 76 | Cristian Pache | ATL | CF | 4.4 |
| 77 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | RHS | 4.4 |
| 78 | Zac Lowther | BAL | LHS | 4.4 |
| 79 | Eloy Jimenez | CHW | RF | 4.4 |
| 80 | Brett Sullivan | TB | C | 4.4 |
| 81 | Yairo Munoz | STL | SS | 4.4 |
| 82 | Jose Siri | CIN | CF | 4.3 |
| 83 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | RHS | 4.3 |
| 84 | Tyler Mahle | CIN | RHS | 4.3 |
| 85 | Chance Sisco | BAL | C | 4.3 |
| 86 | Will Smith | LA | C | 4.3 |
| 87 | Jon Duplantier | ARI | RHS | 4.3 |
| 88 | Taylor Trammell | CIN | LF | 4.2 |
| 89 | Colin Moran | PIT | 3B | 4.2 |
| 90 | Eric Skoglund | KC | LHS | 4.2 |
| 91 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 1B | 4.2 |
| 92 | Joey Wentz | ATL | LHS | 4.2 |
| 93 | Jordan Humphreys | NYM | RHS | 4.1 |
| 94 | Ian Anderson | ATL | RHS | 4.1 |
| 95 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | RHS | 4.1 |
| 96 | Zack Littell | MIN | RHS | 4.1 |
| 97 | Pedro Avila | SD | RHS | 4.1 |
| 98 | Andy Yerzy | ARI | C | 4.1 |
| 99 | Mitchell White | LA | RHS | 4.0 |
| 100 | Mauricio Dubon | MIL | SS | 4.0 |
*WAR projection for player’s first six major-league seasons.
Small-Sample KATOH Darlings
| Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heliot Ramos | SF | CF | 9.1 |
| Eddy Diaz | COL | SS | 5.5 |
| Kevin Merrell | OAK | SS | 5.3 |
| Christian Arroyo | TB | SS | 5.3 |
| Mason Martin | PIT | 1B | 4.9 |
| Reese McGuire | TOR | C | 4.3 |
| Danny Drullard | TEX | RF | 4.2 |
| Yasel Antuna | WAS | SS | 4.1 |
*WAR projection for player’s first six major-league seasons.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Willie Calhoun? Is he not eligible for this list since he had some big league at bats?
Granite has more PA so too many at bats is definitely not the reason. Apparently, Katoh doesn’t believe in Calhoun
I’m guessing that even if you peg him as a DH that hits a 115 WRC+, it’s still REALLY hard to put up more than one win as a DH.
He was eligible, but just missed. He’s a really good hitter, but his defense at 2B is poop. KATOH’s also not thrilled about his height
will he be ranked in KATOH+? He was ranked in the midseason KATOH+ list.
I appreciate the work you put into this, but at the point where height and a defensive position that he probably won’t play knock him off the list, you may need some tweaks.
and he will DH and play LF this year. It is well documented that he can’t play 2B…..but the bat….
Those aren’t the only reasons, but are just contributing factors. It also doesn’t help that he’s a pull-heavy hitter who doesn’t walk. If he’s a DH or bad LF, he’ll have to hit a ton and his hitting is more good than great.
It is not accurate that he doesn’t walk. He has posted decent walk rates in the minors – hes not Tim Anderson. 30 AAA HR is probably close to 40 in MLB given the environment. I am totally fine with you being down on him – I am not certain that he will be anything myself. Just saying that height and bottom of the defensive spectrum value are looking over-weighted.
I mean, part of the reason they knock him off is because they are predictive. The guy can’t play the field either way and because short guys have less of a track record of success.
All that said, I think scouts probably take into account on the height thing even more than KATOH does (to the point of over-correction). you almost never see little guys on prospect lists, and Calhoun was on last year’s list.
Everyone is free to value players as they like. I don’t make any bones about this method being my least favorite. I am just trying to help improve the process. I don’t know that there are a bunch of short players that don’t succeed because of their height – I can think of a bunch of them – Albies, Altuve, Betts, Stroman, etc. Many of the best players of all time are under 6 feet, including Willie Ways and Jackie Robinson. It is more that short players don’t get drafted in the first place, than that they fail because of the height issue. Scouting doesn’t get easier than looking at the program or team website. There could be a height side of prospecting that I don’t know about… but I don’t know about it.
I don’t disagree with you overall that height is seriously overrated, at least for hitters.
But I don’t think you understand how KATOH works. It is a quantitative model, and it shows there is a positive association between height and success at the major league level. Moreover, KATOH penalizes hitters less for their height than traditional prospect evaluation (guys like Albies and Betts do well in this system).
In short, you’re picking on the wrong system for this, and to the extent you are picking on the system it is unjustified.
Because KATOH is really going to love a DH only prospect lol.
er…maybe you haven’t followed Calhoun. He played LF for the Rangers after they traded for him. And the plan if for him to compete for the LF job this spring. There’s no talk of him at 2B, so not clear why that’s relevant to his ranking.
In re height…I get why for a younger prospect you’d that into account. In general terms there is a correlation between height and eventual success. But how many short players with Calhoun’s level of offensive production through the AAA level don’t perform as well as taller players with the same level of production? You’d really have to show your work (or Katoh’s work) to convince anyone that that’s a legit ding with a guy who can flat-out hit at his height.
That said, after that negativity, I have to add that really love what Katoh brings to the table and the way you seem to tweak it continuously. I really believe it illuminates some players in interests ways. In re continuing tweaks, though…you might want to look at the height variable.
The height variable has been looked at, which is why it’s in the model, positively correlated with success.
The author is not projecting Calhoun to play 2B, but rather explaining that one of the inputs into the model (defending) is very poor in Calhoun’s body of work because of some very poor defending at 2B.
the full quote from the author is: “his defense at 2B is poop.”
It is is what it is: you can make stuff up or you can address the points I made or the points the author made. You can’t pretend though….
I don’t think you get it. Left field is a full win lower on the defensive spectrum over a full season. An average corner-outfieler is as valuable on defense as a poopy second baseman. It’s not like he gained value by moving down the defensive spectrum.