2018 Top 100 KATOH Prospects
Below is KATOH’s 2018 top-100 prospect list. If you’re a regular FanGraphs reader, you likely know the drill by now. But in case you need a refresher, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for a player’s first six major-league seasons. It incorporates age, offensive performance, defensive performance, and other characteristics from the past two seasons. There are certainly drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objectivity, the projections can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated.
I have made a few updates this time around. KATOH now features:
- The batted-ball data (for both hitters and pitchers) available on our awesome leaderboards. Among other things, this helps KATOH differentiate between fluky and un-fluky high- and low-BABIP hitters.
- A greater reliance on recent data for the construction of the model and less dependence on data points from 10-plus years ago.
- Numbers from the Dominican Summer League, which was previously outside of KATOH’s scope
Astute readers might notice that this article does not include a top-100 for KATOH+, the version of KATOH that incorporates scouting grades in addition to the stats. Since Kiley and Eric are still working their way through the organizational lists, I don’t have up-to-date FV grades for every prospect. Rather than plugging in FV grades from a year ago (or more), I am holding off on KATOH+ for now.
Below is a top-100 list that considers all prospects who recorded at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last year. Below that is a short list of players with 100-199 PA/BF whose small-sample performances yielded a top-100 projection. Enjoy!
KATOH’s 2018 Top 100 List
| Rank | Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuna | ATL | CF | 13.3 |
| 2 | Carson Kelly | STL | C | 12.1 |
| 3 | Michael Kopech | CHW | RHS | 11.8 |
| 4 | Kyle Tucker | HOU | CF | 11.3 |
| 5 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | SS | 10.6 |
| 6 | Zack Granite | MIN | CF | 10.4 |
| 7 | Bo Bichette | TOR | SS | 10.3 |
| 8 | Trent Grisham | MIL | RF | 10.1 |
| 9 | Jake Bauers | TB | LF | 10.1 |
| 10 | J.P. Crawford | PHI | SS | 9.7 |
| 11 | Lewis Brinson | MIA | CF | 9.3 |
| 12 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | RHS | 9.3 |
| 13 | Willy Adames | TB | SS | 9.1 |
| 14 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | SS | 8.9 |
| 15 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 3B | 8.8 |
| 16 | Daz Cameron | DET | CF | 8.3 |
| 17 | Jake Rogers | DET | C | 8.2 |
| 18 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 3B | 8.0 |
| 19 | Cole Tucker | PIT | SS | 7.9 |
| 20 | Luis Urias | SD | SS | 7.7 |
| 21 | Willi Castro | CLE | SS | 7.7 |
| 22 | Alex Verdugo | LA | CF | 7.7 |
| 23 | Royce Lewis | MIN | SS | 7.6 |
| 24 | Nick Senzel | CIN | 3B | 7.6 |
| 25 | Forrest Whitley | HOU | RHS | 7.3 |
| Rank | Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
| 26 | Tyler Wade | NYY | SS | 7.3 |
| 27 | Austin Meadows | PIT | CF | 7.2 |
| 28 | Wes Rogers | COL | LF | 7.2 |
| 29 | A.J. Puk | OAK | LHS | 7.2 |
| 30 | Harrison Bader | STL | CF | 7.0 |
| 31 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | LF | 6.9 |
| 32 | Mitch Garver | MIN | C | 6.7 |
| 33 | Alexander Canario | SF | RF | 6.7 |
| 34 | Francisco Mejia | CLE | C | 6.7 |
| 35 | Victor Caratini | CHC | C | 6.7 |
| 36 | Brent Honeywell | TB | RHS | 6.5 |
| 37 | Franklin Barreto | OAK | SS | 6.5 |
| 38 | Dustin Fowler | OAK | CF | 6.4 |
| 39 | Victor Robles | WAS | CF | 6.3 |
| 40 | LaMonte Wade | MIN | LF | 5.7 |
| 41 | Franchy Cordero | SD | CF | 5.7 |
| 42 | Mike Soroka | ATL | RHS | 5.6 |
| 43 | Alec Hansen | CHW | RHS | 5.6 |
| 44 | Scott Kingery | PHI | 2B | 5.6 |
| 45 | Jack Flaherty | STL | RHS | 5.6 |
| 46 | Mitch Keller | PIT | RHS | 5.5 |
| 47 | Anthony Alford | TOR | CF | 5.5 |
| 48 | Cole Ragans | TEX | LHS | 5.2 |
| 49 | Mike Tauchman | COL | CF | 5.1 |
| 50 | Anthony Banda | ARI | LHS | 5.1 |
| Rank | Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
| 51 | Danny Jansen | TOR | C | 5.1 |
| 52 | Blake Perkins | WAS | CF | 5.1 |
| 53 | Leody Taveras | TEX | CF | 5.0 |
| 54 | Josh Lowe | TB | CF | 5.0 |
| 55 | Walker Buehler | LA | RHS | 5.0 |
| 56 | D.J. Stewart | BAL | LF | 5.0 |
| 57 | Jacob Stallings | PIT | C | 5.0 |
| 58 | Garrett Hampson | COL | 2B | 5.0 |
| 59 | Kyle Young | PHI | LHS | 5.0 |
| 60 | Tanner Scott | BAL | LHR | 5.0 |
| 61 | Charcer Burks | CHC | LF | 5.0 |
| 62 | Chance Adams | NYY | RHS | 5.0 |
| 63 | Ryan Castellani | COL | RHS | 4.9 |
| 64 | Michel Baez | SD | RHS | 4.8 |
| 65 | Chris Flexen | NYM | RHS | 4.7 |
| 66 | Stephen Gonsalves | MIN | LHS | 4.7 |
| 67 | Bryse Wilson | ATL | RHS | 4.7 |
| 68 | Luiz Gohara | ATL | LHS | 4.7 |
| 69 | Jay Groome | BOS | LHS | 4.7 |
| 70 | Dylan Cozens | PHI | RF | 4.6 |
| 71 | Yu-Cheng Chang | CLE | SS | 4.6 |
| 72 | Oscar Mercado | STL | CF | 4.5 |
| 73 | Lolo Sanchez | PIT | CF | 4.4 |
| 74 | Austin Hays | BAL | CF | 4.4 |
| 75 | Daulton Varsho | ARI | C | 4.4 |
| Rank | Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
| 76 | Cristian Pache | ATL | CF | 4.4 |
| 77 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | RHS | 4.4 |
| 78 | Zac Lowther | BAL | LHS | 4.4 |
| 79 | Eloy Jimenez | CHW | RF | 4.4 |
| 80 | Brett Sullivan | TB | C | 4.4 |
| 81 | Yairo Munoz | STL | SS | 4.4 |
| 82 | Jose Siri | CIN | CF | 4.3 |
| 83 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | RHS | 4.3 |
| 84 | Tyler Mahle | CIN | RHS | 4.3 |
| 85 | Chance Sisco | BAL | C | 4.3 |
| 86 | Will Smith | LA | C | 4.3 |
| 87 | Jon Duplantier | ARI | RHS | 4.3 |
| 88 | Taylor Trammell | CIN | LF | 4.2 |
| 89 | Colin Moran | PIT | 3B | 4.2 |
| 90 | Eric Skoglund | KC | LHS | 4.2 |
| 91 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 1B | 4.2 |
| 92 | Joey Wentz | ATL | LHS | 4.2 |
| 93 | Jordan Humphreys | NYM | RHS | 4.1 |
| 94 | Ian Anderson | ATL | RHS | 4.1 |
| 95 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | RHS | 4.1 |
| 96 | Zack Littell | MIN | RHS | 4.1 |
| 97 | Pedro Avila | SD | RHS | 4.1 |
| 98 | Andy Yerzy | ARI | C | 4.1 |
| 99 | Mitchell White | LA | RHS | 4.0 |
| 100 | Mauricio Dubon | MIL | SS | 4.0 |
*WAR projection for player’s first six major-league seasons.
Small-Sample KATOH Darlings
| Name | Team | Position | WAR* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heliot Ramos | SF | CF | 9.1 |
| Eddy Diaz | COL | SS | 5.5 |
| Kevin Merrell | OAK | SS | 5.3 |
| Christian Arroyo | TB | SS | 5.3 |
| Mason Martin | PIT | 1B | 4.9 |
| Reese McGuire | TOR | C | 4.3 |
| Danny Drullard | TEX | RF | 4.2 |
| Yasel Antuna | WAS | SS | 4.1 |
*WAR projection for player’s first six major-league seasons.
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Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Willie Calhoun? Is he not eligible for this list since he had some big league at bats?
Granite has more PA so too many at bats is definitely not the reason. Apparently, Katoh doesn’t believe in Calhoun
I’m guessing that even if you peg him as a DH that hits a 115 WRC+, it’s still REALLY hard to put up more than one win as a DH.
He was eligible, but just missed. He’s a really good hitter, but his defense at 2B is poop. KATOH’s also not thrilled about his height
will he be ranked in KATOH+? He was ranked in the midseason KATOH+ list.
I appreciate the work you put into this, but at the point where height and a defensive position that he probably won’t play knock him off the list, you may need some tweaks.
and he will DH and play LF this year. It is well documented that he can’t play 2B…..but the bat….
Those aren’t the only reasons, but are just contributing factors. It also doesn’t help that he’s a pull-heavy hitter who doesn’t walk. If he’s a DH or bad LF, he’ll have to hit a ton and his hitting is more good than great.
It is not accurate that he doesn’t walk. He has posted decent walk rates in the minors – hes not Tim Anderson. 30 AAA HR is probably close to 40 in MLB given the environment. I am totally fine with you being down on him – I am not certain that he will be anything myself. Just saying that height and bottom of the defensive spectrum value are looking over-weighted.
I mean, part of the reason they knock him off is because they are predictive. The guy can’t play the field either way and because short guys have less of a track record of success.
All that said, I think scouts probably take into account on the height thing even more than KATOH does (to the point of over-correction). you almost never see little guys on prospect lists, and Calhoun was on last year’s list.
Everyone is free to value players as they like. I don’t make any bones about this method being my least favorite. I am just trying to help improve the process. I don’t know that there are a bunch of short players that don’t succeed because of their height – I can think of a bunch of them – Albies, Altuve, Betts, Stroman, etc. Many of the best players of all time are under 6 feet, including Willie Ways and Jackie Robinson. It is more that short players don’t get drafted in the first place, than that they fail because of the height issue. Scouting doesn’t get easier than looking at the program or team website. There could be a height side of prospecting that I don’t know about… but I don’t know about it.
I don’t disagree with you overall that height is seriously overrated, at least for hitters.
But I don’t think you understand how KATOH works. It is a quantitative model, and it shows there is a positive association between height and success at the major league level. Moreover, KATOH penalizes hitters less for their height than traditional prospect evaluation (guys like Albies and Betts do well in this system).
In short, you’re picking on the wrong system for this, and to the extent you are picking on the system it is unjustified.
Because KATOH is really going to love a DH only prospect lol.
er…maybe you haven’t followed Calhoun. He played LF for the Rangers after they traded for him. And the plan if for him to compete for the LF job this spring. There’s no talk of him at 2B, so not clear why that’s relevant to his ranking.
In re height…I get why for a younger prospect you’d that into account. In general terms there is a correlation between height and eventual success. But how many short players with Calhoun’s level of offensive production through the AAA level don’t perform as well as taller players with the same level of production? You’d really have to show your work (or Katoh’s work) to convince anyone that that’s a legit ding with a guy who can flat-out hit at his height.
That said, after that negativity, I have to add that really love what Katoh brings to the table and the way you seem to tweak it continuously. I really believe it illuminates some players in interests ways. In re continuing tweaks, though…you might want to look at the height variable.
The height variable has been looked at, which is why it’s in the model, positively correlated with success.
The author is not projecting Calhoun to play 2B, but rather explaining that one of the inputs into the model (defending) is very poor in Calhoun’s body of work because of some very poor defending at 2B.
the full quote from the author is: “his defense at 2B is poop.”
It is is what it is: you can make stuff up or you can address the points I made or the points the author made. You can’t pretend though….
I don’t think you get it. Left field is a full win lower on the defensive spectrum over a full season. An average corner-outfieler is as valuable on defense as a poopy second baseman. It’s not like he gained value by moving down the defensive spectrum.
Gohara has already accumulated 1 fWAR (in 29 innings!). So does this forecast him for 3.7 more over the next 6 seasons, or 4.7 more? And I should really know this, but does KATOH incorporate MLB stats, or does it just look at the MiLB stats?
It only incorporates MiLB stats
Thank you, good sir.
Why does KATOH love catchers all of the sudden? There are twice as many on this list as there were on last year’s KATOH list. Inclusion of minor league catcher defense?
There are 12 on this top-100, compared to 10 from the mid-season 2017 list, so not a terribly huge change. Don’t really have a great answer other than that there a good number of catchers right now who have hit in the upper levels while also playing strong defense.
Ahhh, I was looking at the 2017 preseason list. A doubling seemed like a big jump for 100 players, but makes sense. Fair fair.
I guess I knew this was coming due to age and body type, but KATOH is not a fan of Jahmai Jones. In fact, maybe I just missed it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the projection for Brandon Marsh was more optimistic.
Jones is a little higher than Marsh, but KATOH doesn’t particularly like either. Part of it is that they’re a ways a way from the majors.
Does KATOH seperate out the Offense and Defense WAR contributions? I feel like that would be a cool thing to see
Agreed. That would be awesome.
This Top 100 list is weird, therefore it is bad.
You should see the players he recommends we pick up in our deep dynasty league (20 teams, 40-man rosters).
And we do own 4 of the top 20 on this list for some reason.
Wow, what a coincidence!
The most interesting piece of this list – imo – is that Kopech, based on statistical output, is the 3rd ranked prospect in baseball… but somehow based on scouting output he’s ranked lower. That’s fascinating to me, because Kopech strikes me as a guy who scouts would evaluate as being more valuable than his statistical output due to his raw stuff. This is what has me so puzzled about Kopech’s place on other lists.
I always look forward to this, what is arguably the single best quantitative model of prospect prediction in the public domain.
I look forward to the questions like “Who is Josh Lowe?” But a few thoughts:
1) Looks like the cat is out of the bag on Wes Rogers.
2) It’s interesting that two of the guys acquired by Detroit from Houston are in the top part of the list (Jake Rogers, Daz Cameron).
3) Trent Grisham (formerly Clark) really surprised me. Why is he so high? He strikes out a lot and doesn’t really have a ton of power.
Wes Rogers is certainly a strange case and I’m still not sure how I feel about him personally. Looking at his profile though (good numbers, tons of speed, blossoming power,6’3″), I get why KATOH loves him. I’ll have more on the others soon.
Blossoming power? Those power numbers don’t look like much in Lancaster and he was 23 in A+ ball. I am not convinced.
Blossoming was an overstatement. “No longer non-existant” is probably more appropriate
I love Wes Rogers. One of my favorite low-level sleepers. His age/level isn’t great but the rest of him is.
I too am surprised by Grisham. But despite his tendency to strikeout, his walk rate is also rather high and he steals a ton. Plus he’s only 20, so room for improvement?
Does KATOH do anything about signals that a prospect might be moving off a position? It looks like he played quite a bit of RF last year, which would be a signal that he possibly is moving off of CF.
Yeah, and scouts pretty much think he’s going to left field if he can’t stick in center because of the arm. KATOH might be able to predict that if he hasn’t played much there.
Agreed great stuff.
Daz was a good hitter in A-Ball last year and played excellent defense in CF. Most scouts don’t like him because his tools aren’t particularly loud (though he did make Klaw’s top-100), but he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, either.
Kyle Young from PHI? That came out of nowhere.
I’ll have more on him soon!
I like that this list comes up with unexpected names. It gives me some players to put a bit of research into. You might think I hate all of this, based on some of my comments but I really do appreciate diverse opinions – its I try to learn.
Thanks! Similarly, I don’t hate it when commentators challenge me and/or KATOH. I appreciate the input and I don’t just flippantly dismiss it as being wrong.
Is the defensive part of the equation still reliant on Clay Davenport’s numbers? If so, that might explain why so many catchers are on the list.
The offensive bar at catcher is really low.
Right, especially for good defensive catchers. If you’re a good defensive catcher who’s hit in AA or AAA, you’re basically ready to be a productive big leaguer.
Any insight as to why Eloy Jimenez is so low on the list? What does KATOH see here that scouts are missing?
It’s mostly that he’s a corner outfielder and not a particularly good one. And the K and BB numbers aren’t terrible good either, so he’s really just a 21yo with a lot of power at this point. KATOH thinks that’s more of a very good prospect than an elite one.
I saw him in person several times this past season and I am convinced that he will wind up at first base. The power is incredible, though.
No Brendan Rodgers at ALL? Huh.
The hate continues: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-consensus-top-prospect-katoh-hates/
Another prospect not getting any love is Christian Walker. I would have sworn he had made some believers last season.
KATOH doesn’t like 26 year olds and also probably isn’t a fan of his strikeout rates in the Orioles’ system, but he sure seems like he should get a chance at 1B for some team that doesn’t have Goldschmidt.
Considering KATOH measures using WAR and WAR hates all Rockies hitters, I’m not surprised Rodgers is disliked.
“Top 100” and “Jacob Stallings” isn’t something i ever expected to see. that’s awesome haha.
The Cardinals hack the Astros. It looks like the Pirates hack the KATOH computer.
Seriously, I’m interested to hear about Stallings! Though I guess it’s as simple as he hit well in 2017, somehow.
I get the sense that scouts think he’s not much of a catcher at all. Still, he’s undeniably earned a shot based on his hitting!
According to Pirates Prospects, it’s just the opposite. Good glove, great with pitchers, but couldn’t hit at all until he was 27 and in AAA.
That’s interesting. If true, I think KATOH’s projection actually isn’t crazy
He’s a weird one for sure. He’s weird because of his age. He’s weird because of his batted ball profile. He’s weird because he hasn’t logged many PA the past couple of years. And he’s weird because of his defense. The defense is the biggest question mark, but there’s no denying he hit the crap out of the ball in a small sample last year.
KATOH contemplates a prospect’s build, right? Is that position-specific, or does Stallings get comped to all position players of a similar build? I’d think it’s at most a nudge in the right direction, but being 6’5″ might also work in his favor here.
Shouldn’t KATOH be regressing heavily those players with limited sample size? And if so, why would you also need a PA/IP cutoff?
Scrolling through, sipping coffee, sees Stallings, Jacob and Buehler, Walker ranked equally. Spits out coffee, cant stop laughing.
Why doesn’t Katoh include more than 1 year’s data? Stallings is not remotely a prospect for anything other than emergency C, feel good story since his dad is Pitt’s basketball coach. Chris, you cant expect to have this taken seriously when 28 year old no hit career minor leaguers come up in the top 60.
Jumping off on the DSL, does this include stats from the Arizona Fall League and if not have you considered that?
Not yet, but plan to soon
Victor Robles just makes no sense, again this year. His glove and position alone would put him above those measly projections no?
I wonder if KATOH differentiates between walks and HBP. Robles has an alarming amount of his OBP tied to HBP. Personally, I don’t think that’s a good thing. I have no idea how KATOH feels about it. Maybe Chris can shed light on this whole thing.
He doesn’t hit for much power, doesn’t walk and doesn’t make elite contact. And despite his speed, he hasn’t been terribly productive on the bases. He’s also on the short side. KATOH likes him, but everything other than his age and defense drags him down a bit.
Agreed on the speed. Having watched a few PNats games last year, it seems like Robles is a TOOTBLAN waiting to happen every time he’s on base. He’s over aggressive and, frankly, sloppy on the base paths. I expect (hope?) some of that will get groomed out of him, but for now it’s not awesome.
The Billy Burns effect
By most scouting reports I’ve read he has a chance to be very valuable with the glove at premium CF position.
He is coming off a minor league year in which he hit 38 doubles, 13 HR and stole 34 bases. All while being one of the youngest players at each stop and reaching the majors at age 20.
Again. Victor Robles projections (6.3) make little sense intuitively. Kevin Pillar has put up 10 WAR in roughly 4 seasons.
I’ll take the over.
$500 sound about right?
None of those statements are true, though. Robles hit 13 home runs and had 48 other extra-base hits between A+, AA, and the majors last season. His 7.5% walk rate is roughly average, as opposed to be someone that “doesn’t walk,” and that doesn’t include his consistent ability to induce HBPs. Then the only players with a better slugging percentage and lower strikeout rate over 150+ PAs in AA were a 29 year old first baseman, a 24 year old first baseman, and Francisco Mejia.
I feel like we have this conversation every 6 months haha. Those statements were all oversimplified and relative. Yes, he hits for 2B/3B power, but not quite as much as you’d hope to see from someone with iffy BB and K. His walk rate is slightly below average, which is basically well below average for someone who’s supposed to be a top prospect. The HBP thing is weird and its likely that KATOH is underrating him a little bit there.
Personally, I think Robles’ ranking feels low too. But it isn’t as though KATOH doesn’t like him at all. It just thinks he’s very good rather than elite.
Out of 387 hitters with at least 150 plate appearances in Double-A this past season, Robles’ 13.9% K% ranked 52nd. As noted, only three players in that group posted higher slugging percentages with a lower strikeout rate. Even if you don’t buy his K% improvement over that sample, he’s at 15.1% for his minor league career, which is in absolutely no way “iffy,” and Robles’ on-base percentage has also been consistently well above average. 13 home runs is also well above average for a centerfield prospect, and the huge number of additional extra-base hits suggests the potential for continued growth in that department.
JDB, The population you want to use are recent Double-A players who have succeeded in the majors. Most of those Double-A guys you’re comparing him to will never do more than sniff the majors.
I’m aware of that, as I’ve been writing about prospects for more than fifteen years. By any standard, there is nothing concerning about Robles’ strikeout or walk rate. The walk rate could be better, certainly, but when you factor in the HBPs (which have been consistent annually) then he’s getting on-base at an above average clip. Robles is a potentially elite defensive center fielder who posted a 147 wRC+ last season despite being one of the youngest players in his leagues. Every system misses on some guys, so there’s nothing particularly bad about KATOH whiffing on Robles, but we need to acknowledge that the fault there is with KATOH and not Robles.
To project as elite, a player needs to have elite principal components- Robles lacks elite signal at power, contact, and walks.
He’s a scouts favorite because of the obvious loud tools.
I’d pose the question: which prospects have the loudest, most obvious tools, so loud that every 10 year old would notice watching them play? Those are often the prospects that come with a 30% overrated ranking from scouts- it is difficult for a crowd of visual evaluates to avoid over appreciating someone who looks awesome.
Robles and Vlad Jr probably the most physically impressive top prospects so it’s not a big surprise KATOH gives them lower rankings than standard lists.
Often, when a prospect scores a little lower in KATOH I start re-evaluating whether the player is really all that good. With Vlad Jr, it’s mostly a reminder that regression is going to miss here and there.
In Vlad Jr’s case, it’s likely because Guerrero is a lousy defender but he’s going to mash so hard no one will care.
Kiley & Eric gave Robles 70 grades on his hit tool, running, throwing, and fielding. It doesn’t get much more elite than that.
Have you not noticed that he posted a 147 wRC+ as one of the youngest players in his leagues while being an elite defensive centerfielder? Robles is absolutely not a prospect long on potential but short on production. He has been monstrously productive throughout his minor league career while also having very loud tools.
I can’t find any earthly explanation why KATOH would like DJ Stewart more than Eloy Jiminez. I can’t think of a single attribute that would favor Stewart. Help me out here?
I’ll gladly to help you out! Jimenez is basically a power only guy, while Stewart also runs well, plays much better LF defense, draws walks and makes more contact. Elo is younger and has more power, but Stewart is more of a complete package.
I know the scouting community isn’t sold on the stuff for Nestor Cortes, but shouldn’t KATOH like the #s? Is it a height/velo thing?
KATOH loves him relative to everyone else, but just not enough to be a top-100 guy. Height is a part of it , but it’s more that his awesome numbers came in mostly a relief role. Relief prospects just don’t typically provide significant value often enough to be ranked as prospects.
I’m not surprised KATOH doesn’t like Whitley as much as the scouts as Astros have limited his innings and used him as a tandem starter some. I’m a little surprised KATOH has lowered his projected WAR slightly despite a K%-BB% over 30% since the 2017 midseason list.
I don’t get wh KATOH loves Dylan Cozens so much. His K’s are stupid.
There’s a problem in projecting players who (a) play in stadiums that clearly favor lefties over righties and vice-versa, and (b) who spray the ball all over the field. Cozens is a lefty but took advantage of Philly’s AA affiliate’s very friendly confines (for right handed power) because he can go the opposite way. But KATOH barely penalizes him for the stadium because he’s a lefty, not a righty.
This is why KATOH punished Rhys Hoskins a lot but not Cozens.
KATOH punished Hoskins a bit more than Cozens, but still had him #57 when nobody else ranked him in the preseason. Cozens has crushed the ball each of the past two seasons while also drawing walks, showing some speed and playing good RF defense. That’s pretty rare for a 23yo.
I should add, KATOH corrected on Hoskins pretty quickly when he got to AAA and mashed. Hoskins is a KATOH win overall, but his handedness combined with the stadium is why Hoskins got penalized and Cozens didn’t, despite the similar video-game statlines.
I love that you’re incorporating the batted ball data but I don’t know which parts are interesting to look at when looking at a player – did any of the particular batted ball stats show up as statistically significant stats compared to others?
Where is future MVP Max Schrock?!
Munoz is in there though, albeit listed as an Oakland A
Your comment no longer makes sense.
Good grief Ramos literally had a .500 BABIP and 9.0 Spd score.
And a .297 ISO?!?!
And he’s 18?
And he struck out almost a third of the time in rookie ball.
His power/speed combo is ridiculous, and if he can make enough contact he’s an all-star. That’s a very, very big “if” though…he’s got a long way to go.
And he did all of that as a 17yo in the AZL. He’s captain outlier!
Hey Chris I noticed a pretty big difference between some guys (Carson Kelley for one) Katoh+ provided in the write up earlier this year, and this top 100 list. Did the previous Katoh+ numbers provided in the write ups for NL Central incorporate the new info you mentioned in the lead in, or can we expect those numbers to be adjusted at some point?
I was wondering where Reese McGuire was on other lists. This kid is a guy who was always rated highly based on tools alone, and then this year, the first year he played at an age appropriate level, he exploded with the bat, albeit in a smallish sample. And to be honest he was only slightly below average the year before in AA (90wrc+), despite being young for the level, which is already pretty good for a defense-first catcher.
I’ll take prospect fatigue for 100, Alex. It’s easy to forget that he’s still only 22.
Jordan Luplow was pretty high on the Mid-Season. Did he lose eligibility, or did his projection drop him off the list?
He dropped off. He still comes in at 3.2, which is easily top-200, so he’s still interesting.
I think KATOH is a cool concept, but I’m curious if there is a list of any notable quality big-league players who were not identified as traditional prospects, but were identified through KATOH? I’m just curious.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-players-katoh-got-right-in-2017/ And for some earlier examples, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Diaz, Zach Davies were all KATOH guys.
Meanwhile I think the biggest miss by KATOH was Aaron Judge. Course, even the most optimistic prediction wouldn’t have foreseen what he did last year.
Huge miss, but it’s not like KATOH was alone. Just about everyone else had him as a back-end top-100 guy too heading into last year.
KATOH saw Roberto Osuna’s upside based on a handful of A and A+ innings sandwiched around TJ surgery, despite a hugely inflated ERA.
Thanks for doing this and answering questions, almost like a mini-chat. I dig it. Can you speak to what Katoh is seeing with Carson Kelly to project him as the #2 prospect in baseball with a service time production projection just below Acuna?
As someone who has followed Kelly intensely since he was drafted, I love how much he has matured with the glove and the bat. Also, sure wish the Cards had held off on that Molina extension so we could actually see him play and not ride the pine all season.
He’s a good defensive catcher who hit well as a 22yo in AA. There isn’t any one thing that stands out about his profile, but he hit quite well in AAA last year. He made elite contact, drew walks and hit for more power than ever before. I feel like the power went somewhat unnoticed due to his only playing 68 games, but he really broke out in that area. The offensive bar for good defensive catchers is really low, so his being a good hitter at such a young age is encouraging.
Was going to say the same. I know the other Fangraphs writers pop-in from time to time, but from what I’ve seen, Chris is by far the most active. Thanks for taking the time to interact with us and answer our questions Chris!!!
Finally, a top 100 with more than one Met! I was bullish on Flexen a year ago as a sleeper but he just did not look good in the majors last season. I hope there’s more to see this year.
I wonder, could you split out projected offensive WAR from defensive and baserunning WAR? Or maybe, for RotoGraphs, you could you do a Roto-KATOH list based just on offense and baserunning.
Then guys like Calhoun would jump up, and some defense-first catchers and SS would drop down.
Hey Chris – newbie to KATOH. Can you briefly explain how KATOH relates to a traditional top 100 list like BA, BP, BBHQ etc.? I’m not sure anyone would take Carson Kelly over Eloy Jimenez, but is that what you are suggesting? Just trying to get some perspective on how we should practically use this list.
I wouldn’t take it that literally. Maybe the KATOH+ version (not yet released), which incorporates scouting grades, but not this one. It’s more of a tool to identify under-valued guys like Kelly. It isn’t intended to be the best prospect list out there, but more of a good prospect list that ranks players differently than the consensus. So if you’re doing a dynasty draft for example, you might start with consensus rankings and bump guys like Kelly, Granite and Castro up a few spots.
Why does a numbers based system hate my team? Generic, but in this case the White Sox
Our erstwhile managing editor actually wrote about this not too long ago: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-sox-big-bets-on-risk/
Alexander Canario at 33 is shocking, but also very welcome! It was apparent that his age, production combination in DSL was unprecedented in recent history for a Giants prospect, but didn’t realize how good it was overall. He will be playing CF going forward after being mostly in RF last season, so a further boost to his status.
It’s obviously tougher to project guys that far from the majors, but he did some exciting things. He basically did everything you can ask for offensively: Contact, power, speed, walks. And he still hasn’t turned 18!
Do we know his 2018 assignment yet? I’d love to see what he could do in full-season ball.
Don’t have assignment information yet. Giants have overhauled their minor league operations group, so hard to predict what they will do too. In the past, it would be a lock that Canario would spend the season in AZL.
Any specific reason for the Vlad Jr. drop? I believe KATOH was quite a bit higher on him last year, no?
Yeah, he was #3 at mid-season. The biggest thing is that the new version isn’t as obsessed with contact for lower-level guys, which was driving Vlad’s projection. Still loves him for all of the same reasons, just a bit less.
This also was surprising to me, but I didn’t realize the methodology changed. I think I agreed with the last version more – this one seems more dependent on fielding. Do you still have the old method available / what does Vlad Jr look like there?
Lots of love for catchers here. How close was Keibert Ruiz to the top 100? Was there something about his profile that stands out as a red flag?
Very close. Nothing in particular, but the complete lack of power and walks don’t help. Also proximity from MLB.
How does Acuna’s forecast compare to other elite prospects of the past?
Peter Alonso? Crazy raw power with a low strikeout rate and decent walk rate. Numbers also picked up noticeably after returning from wrist injury.
Great numbers, but it’s really tough for 1B, especially when they’re not at the brink of MLB.
Does Katoh look at pitch velocity for pitchers or is just results based projections. I can understand Kolby Allard not making top 100 list due to “stuff” but his stat line at AA for his age would have seemed to be a Katoh darling? What causes him to not be? K/9 yr/yr drop?
Unfortunately that data isn’t publicly available for minor leaguers in any comprehensive way.
Seems pretty silly that no one took Wes Rogers in the rule 5 draft.
Yeah, he’s a weird case for sure, but someone should have rolled the dice I think.
Trent Grisham at 10.1 WAR/first 6 years and 8th on this list is surprising to this Brewers fan. As far as KATOH goes, that’s incredible.
His highest level is high A, and he’s put up less than impressive numbers in every level he’s played above Rookie ball. I know that he’s played in some pretty hitter unfriendly leagues (.223/.360/.348 is good for a 107 wRC+ in the Carolina league!), but I thought that high walk rates (where he seems to excel) were typically not as correlated with major league success as many other offensive traits.
Are we going to see Grisham often in this year’s Fringe Five series?
High walk rates in the lower minors, that is (lost the ability to edit that comment somehow). Obviously, the sustained ability to draw high volumes of BBs in the majors is incredibly valuable.
KATOH is waaaaay higher on the Twins prospects than traditional lists. As a fan it will be interesting to watch.
Not only the high list on Michael Kopech but he’s really far ahead when put against the background of the rest of the top 25/30. KATOH buying into the control/command gains in his Thor like 2017? Anything beyond the obvious because this ranking speaks to my Kopech loving heart.
I think it’s all pretty easy to see: Dominant in the upper levels with lots of Ks, only 21, 6’3″
So what about Miguel Andujar? Is there something I’m missing in his stats?
This article gives a good overview of Andujar’s strengths and weaknesses and why evaluations of him are all over the place.
https://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-prospects-minor-leagues/2018/2/8/16988980/yankees-prospects-miguel-andujar-fangraphs-baseball-prospectus-third-base
He doesn’t walk a lot, the power isn’t exceptional and he doesn’t run. He also plays 3B, which isn’t a super-premium position and his defense there hasn’t been good.
Is the KATOH model proprietary? I’m mildly curious how some of the shifts in rank occurred. Vlad Jr, for example, was downgraded nearly 4 WAR (compared to the 2017 midseason report), despite continuing to hit in the second half of the season (while at a higher level).
Batted ball data maybe?
Quality list. Good work FG
Christian Arroyo was traded from TB to SF no? Also the WAR you list for him here is quite a bit higher than the figure you gave for him in December when he was traded.
Really love KATOH, if it ever became a part of the Fangraphs database it would be beyond awesome.
Other way around. SF sent Arroyo to Tampa in the deal to get Longoria and dump Span.
Ah right, thanks for the correction.
Josh Lowe? Intrigued to see him there — Katoh definitely likes CFers and I presume likes his defense, as it is highly touted. Can you add more on a guy who I’m assuming isn’t on any other top 100 lists — does Katoh take into account the sort of improvement that Lowe showed over the course of the season (from awful to OK in re OPS)?
He’s a 6’4″ CF who performed well as a teenager in Low-A. He was the 16th overall pick in 2016, so I’m kind of surprised he isn’t seen as more of a prospect.
I wonder which of the big three Yankee pitching prospects (Joba, Hughes and Kennedy) will turn into the best player.
The correct answer is clearly Andrew Brackman.
Wow, have the Mariners not had a single prospect on any of the lists so far?
No KATOH+ this year? 🙁
I know there is a lot of Rogers posts going around but the Dylan Cozens projection is crazy. He had a shocking year with the bat and is a butcher in the field, He right now looks high bust probability. Power magnified by a silly ball park in AA which he was already to old for.
That profile scares me, hacking swing, inability to get on base and no defense, what does KATOH like about him?
Danny Drullard is the truth (SSS aside). Checks all the boxes:
Young/average age for his level
high BB
low K
pull hitter
FB hitter
HRs and SBs
hits for average
Large enough frame to add strength and increase his HR/FB
Who are KATOH’s top 10 college prospects right now?
I am surprised by the omission of Jesus Sanchez from this list. His walk rate isn’t great, but he performed pretty well in High-A as a 19-year old.