Ranking 2017’s Graduated Prospects
We continue Prospect Week 2018 by trying to address a question frequently asked by fans of teams that have just graduated multiple high-level prospects — namely, where would those graduated prospects rank if they were still eligible for the Top 100? We usually don’t have that answer ready off the top of our heads since, as prospect analysts, we aren’t thinking about those players very much. We decided that wasn’t okay, though. So now, whenever we do an updated top-100 or midseason list, we will also provide an update on the prospects who have lost their eligibility in the previous/current year.
Even for fans of teams with no players on the list below, there’s still some value here. Names like Derek Fisher and Clint Frazier have appeared in trade rumors, often packaged with or chosen in lieu of prospects who are constantly ranked. This list will help give some context to those rumors, with the Present and Future Value (PV and FV) grades to tie them together — a concept for valuation we will be making more accessible in the future.
There wasn’t a hard and fast cut-off for this list. We started simply by considering players who’d lost eligibility in 2017 and whom we project to be 50 FV or higher, thus being top-100-quality prospects. I believe Chad Green and Joe Musgrove are the two players who lost eligibility in 2016, but we feel as though they aren’t finished products yet or still have evolving roles, so you get two extra players graded on the list. There were also some interesting former top prospects who just missed this list (Jharel Cotton, Amir Garrett, Cody Reed, etc.) whom Eric will address on a more individual basis later to explain why we’ve downgraded them.
For a quick primer on the PV and FV concepts — including, in particular, how it scales to WAR — see this article. Broadly speaking, the aim behind these rankings is to capture true talent level, so just because a rookie recorded two wins in half a season of playing time last year doesn’t mean he’s a 4 WAR player. It may mean we think that, going forward, he’s just a 2 WAR player and thus a 50 FV, despite outperforming some veterans who we also think are 50 PV/FV. We are projecting the future, not just reporting what happened. Think of PV as what we think his WAR total will be this year and FV as what we think his one- or two-year peak level will be.
If your team had a prospect who was rated in the minors as a 55 FV and he’s a 50 FV on here, it’s not just because his numbers were bad in a couple dozen MLB games, but rather because we think either the ceiling is now lower or he’s less likely to reach it. The only real example where the WAR totals overwhelmed what we considered to be the actual talent is Judge. We feel like he probably settles in as a 70 or 75 FV like Bellinger, somewhere outside of the top three at his position (outfielders) but very close to that level; it’s just hard to ignore the fact that he recorded highest WAR in baseball as a rookie, so we leaned toward WAR outcome when assigning his PV/FV in that case only.
Also, in close situations (like the 65 FV hitters), we tended to lean toward the guys we thought were more advanced now (higher PV) and taking hitters over pitchers (discussed in the above-linked Making the Top 100 conversation).
| Rank | Name | Club | Pos | Age | PV | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | NYY | RF | 25 | 80 | 80 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | LA | 1B | 21 | 65 | 70 |
| 3 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | 24 | 60 | 65 |
| 4 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 3B | 20 | 55 | 65 |
| 5 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | 2B | 20 | 55 | 65 |
| 6 | Andrew Benintendi | BOS | CF | 22 | 55 | 65 |
| 7 | Yoan Moncada | CHW | 2B | 22 | 50 | 65 |
| 8 | Matt Chapman | OAK | 3B | 24 | 55 | 60 |
| 9 | German Marquez | COL | RHS | 22 | 55 | 60 |
| 10 | Luis Castillo | CIN | RHS | 24 | 55 | 60 |
| 11 | Dansby Swanson | ATL | SS | 23 | 45 | 55 |
| 12 | Manuel Margot | SD | CF | 22 | 50 | 55 |
| 13 | Amed Rosario | NYM | SS | 21 | 40 | 55 |
| 14 | Joe Musgrove | PIT | RHS | 25 | 55 | 55 |
| 15 | Ian Happ | CHC | UT | 22 | 50 | 55 |
| 16 | Bradley Zimmer | CLE | CF | 24 | 50 | 55 |
| 17 | Luke Weaver | STL | RHS | 23 | 50 | 55 |
| 18 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY | LHS | 24 | 50 | 55 |
| 19 | Josh Hader | MIL | LHP | 23 | 45 | 55 |
| 20 | Sean Newcomb | ATL | LHS | 24 | 45 | 55 |
| 21 | Chad Green | NYY | RHP | 26 | 50 | 55 |
| 22 | Francis Martes | HOU | RHS | 21 | 40 | 55 |
| 23 | Tyler Glasnow | PIT | RHS | 23 | 40 | 50 |
| 24 | Matt Olson | OAK | 1B | 23 | 50 | 50 |
| 25 | Mitch Haniger | SEA | RF | 26 | 50 | 50 |
| Rank | Name | Club | Pos | Age | PV | FV |
| 26 | Jose Martinez | STL | RF | 28 | 50 | 50 |
| 27 | Paul DeJong | STL | SS | 23 | 50 | 50 |
| 28 | Clint Frazier | NYY | RF | 22 | 45 | 50 |
| 29 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 3B | 23 | 50 | 50 |
| 30 | Dominic Smith | NYM | 1B | 22 | 40 | 50 |
| 31 | Josh Bell | PIT | 1B | 24 | 40 | 50 |
| 32 | Lucas Giolito | CHW | RHS | 22 | 40 | 50 |
| 33 | Jeff Hoffman | COL | RHS | 24 | 40 | 50 |
| 34 | Derek Fisher | HOU | LF | 23 | 45 | 50 |
| 35 | Jake Faria | TB | RHS | 23 | 45 | 50 |
| 36 | Brandon Nimmo | NYM | LF | 24 | 45 | 50 |
| 37 | Nick Williams | PHI | LF | 24 | 45 | 50 |
| 38 | Dinelson Lamet | SD | RHS | 24 | 45 | 50 |
| 39 | Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | RHS | 23 | 40 | 50 |
| 40 | Yandy Diaz | CLE | 3B | 25 | 40 | 50 |
| 41 | Robert Gsellman | NYM | RHS | 23 | 45 | 50 |
| 42 | Trevor Williams | PIT | RHS | 25 | 50 | 50 |
| 43 | Kyle Freeland | COL | LHS | 24 | 45 | 50 |
| 44 | Johan Camargo | ATL | 3B | 24 | 45 | 50 |
| 45 | Matt Strahm | SD | LHS | 25 | 40 | 50 |
| 46 | David Paulino | HOU | RHS | 24 | 45 | 50 |
Seeing Castillo ranked the same as German Marquez confuses me based on everything else I read.
feel like that says more about Marquez than anything. but I agree, it looks odd given the hype (or lack thereof) around these guys
Castillo’s hype train got going later than Marquez, so maybe its recency to some extent. But a lot of the current attention on Castillo is probably for fantasy purposes as he seems to be this year’s “potential breakout ace”, and even if Marquez is just as good skills wise he’s gonna get discounted in fantasy like any Rox starter.
People are going crazy over L. Castillo, and there’s a lot to like. But he was deemed a RP before his debut last year. Was never considered a top prospect. He debuted and was electric. He’s due for regression and I still think, he’s a 2 pitch SP. If he can effectively through a CH, he could be CMart or Severino. If not, he’s M. Pineda.
If G. Marquez didn’t pitch in Colorado he’d be a Top 30/35 SP, imo. Great stuff. Great command.
Rockies pitchers need to start getting the “reverse” Coors treatment that the hitters have to live down.
Marquez had a 4.26 FIP/4.58 xFIP on the road last year.
players are better at home than on the road, shocking
When you’re a pitcher and home is Coors Field, then yeah, that’s legitimately shocking.
If anything, his home/road splits suggest Marquez is valuable because he does just as well at Coors as he does on the road. There’s no evidence that he’s somehow worse off because he plays half his games at Coors, which is freaking amazing.
Finding someone who pitches just as well at Coors as everywhere else is pretty awesome for Colorado. He may not have Castillo’s star potential but he looks like a stable, long-term guy for them and they should be thrilled.
Umm, Castillo’s changeup has never been the issue. His changeup was always graded as plus when he was a prospect. The issue for him coming up was the lack of a breaking ball, but then last year he busted out what appeared to be an above-average slider out of nowhere. The pitch generated a ton of whiffs. If he can maintain that, he’s actually a 4 pitch guy since he throws two different fastballs as well.
They’re both 60’s, which is well above-average starting pitchers. Given that Marquez just threw 160 innings with an 87 ERA- and a 95 FIP- as a 22 year-old (not to mention was well-regarded as a prospect), that seems fair. I’d strongly consider Marquez if I could have either of the two for the next 5 years
it’s getting harder and harder to take the atlanta rankings seriously.
I think the placement of Musgrove on this list, as well as Moran’s placement in the top 100 (including in relation to someone like Clint Frazier) is instructive for why many folks, including many who aren’t Pirates fans and don’t have an axe to grind with Nutting, quite liked the Pirates’ trade return for Cole.
Maybe. Also possible that being traded boosted their rankings. When a trade is made people look closely at it to figure out 1) if they like it, and 2) what the teams were thinking…often looking closer at a prospect to figure out why he was worth the return changes perception of that player all by itself…and that increased scrutiny/notoriety can boost rankings.
Except I’m not talking about people saying now, after these rankings are published, that Pittsburgh’s return was good. I’m talking about people who already thought highly of Moran and Musgrove (and Feliz and/or Martin) and liked the trade return for Pittsburgh before these rankings came out.
If Eric/Kiley bumped their rankings up because they were traded, then they can address that. But even if so, all that would mean is that Eric/Kiley came around and liked Musgrove and Moran like the people in my point already did.
I think paperlions is more on point here. I don’t think the majority thought is was a good return at the time, but nothing boosts a prospects stock in the off-season more than a trade.
Reading is hard.
My point has not one whit to do with what the majority thought at the time.
Musgrove’s PV is too high. 55 means above average. Last season he had a 113 ERA- and a 100 FIP- and that’s with 23 of his 38 appearances being in relief.
PV is his expected value in 2018, not his actual value in 2017.
Was Austin Barnes not eligible for this list? I’m curious what his PV/FV would be in Eric and Kiley’s methodology
Austin was rookie-eligible this year, so he was probably omitted by accident.
Any thoughts on Andrew Toles, who I think was eligible here?
FV 55 for me, if his speed comes back mostly intact
Down-votes for you sir. Thanks for answer the question, you jerk!
I can understand the down-votes…doesn’t bother me. I don’t know how anyone can watch Toles and not see clearly above average potential though. His numbers back it up, though yes, the sample size is fairly small, 243 PA over two years. Then you have comments like Dave Roberts saying that “pound for pound, he’s the strongest guy on the team”, etc.
I’d certainly rather have Toles than at least half the guys on this list. My guess is that he slipped through the cracks, but I could be wrong.
I like Toles too. The big question is that he’s been platooned almost exclusively, so we have no idea how he does against lefties. But he’s got some power and a lot of speed and seems to do well on defense, so he’s got a lot going for him.
hes insanely aggressive and so has a really awful walk rate.
his swing really isnt designed to tap into his power, but he’s in an environment where he could change that, and hopefully given that he’s rehabbing something that could sap his speed they will get him on that path pre-emptively.
He’s got to put up more than a 100 wRC+ to be a real left fielder if he doesn’t have the chops for CF (and Taylor’s straight better in CF than he was in his starts there last year, so he’s looking at a corner).
The tools are promising but it was ugly when he was hitting leadoff ahead of Seager, some really stupid 6 pitch first innings.
He has 15 walks in 243 PA which isn’t insanely bad, but yeah, leadoff is probably not the place for him. He’s pretty raw, so I’d have hope that he’ll improve his plate discipline, but that could drag him down if not.
I watched his every PA last year; the walk rate is misleading because it’s a pretty small sample where he faced some guys who really could not find the strike zone. He had the approach of a low walkrate hitter at the plate, which can work out for you if you are in fact pretty fast. Several of his walks came in situations where he went up there with the take sign due to the opposing pitcher not really finding the plate. Left to his own devices, I’d be surprised if he could manage a 7% BB with his current approach.
If his speed declines due to this injury, he will have to make a plate discipline improvement in order to offset his declining BABIP. ACL surgery is a big deal!
I think Jeff Hoffman could be really good if he just got out of Colorado, but I’d agree with him as an FV50 if he stays. I know Colorado believes that curveballs can work at altitude, but Hoffman’s curveball is the most important pitch in his arsenal.
Dansby Swanson’s FV55 feels a little high for me, while Matt Olson’s PV50 feels low. They must have thought 2017 was a fluke for both of them, but I’m not so sure.
Swanson’s PV seems more off than his FV.
I think the pros just aren’t normally going to swing guys nearly as much as fans will. Dansby has a full 10 point drop in FV from last year. Especially because there wasn’t really a thing that you can point to that looked terrible (except his hitting results), it feels eminently plausible that he’ll recover and at least be a slightly above average player. There is certainly bust potential for a guy that just ran a 66 wRC+ over an almost full season, but his prospect pedigree also provides some hope of a full rebound. I think Dansby is a still a very volatile prospect at this point.
Well, his results from his first cup of coffee in MLB were dramatically inflated by a .383 BABIP. Now he probably won’t keep running a sub-.300 BABIP, but he was never as good as he seemed then.
The real problem is that he doesn’t have great contact skills (which, digging into the numbers for a bit, seems partly but not entirely related to chasing pitches) and he doesn’t have great power. If he rebounds to be a league-average bat with league-average defense, then yes, he’s an FV55. I am skeptical of it all breaking right for him at the plate.
(For reference, I always thought of him as an FV55 rather than an FV65, and now think of him as an FV45, so I’m not changing my opinion that much of him either.)
Swanson needs to remedy 1 thing to be back to a FV55. the ability to hit a slider. It appears he recognizes them, but he just swings thru them for some reason. If he makes that adjustment, he’s back to a league average hitter.
“prospect pedigree”…
translation?
“prospect pedigree” means (in the best case scenario) we liked something about him before and it hasn’t gone away.
in the worst case scenario, it means “we’re too embarrassed to admit we oversold the guy.”
*starts filling the Johan Camargo Hype Blimp from a huge hydrogen tank* oh yeah
There’s a trend with Camargo. When he was protected from the Rule V draft everyone thought Atl was out of their minds. Then he performed really well 2.8 WAR / 600 PA. That’s a PV/FV 50 to me
no i agree, i like him. i’m just pre-emptively entertained to see what other people will think of him being here
Last year, Eric had Camargo ranked 52nd… for the Braves, and said seemingly as a best-case scenario that he could have Abraham “negative career WAR” Nunez’s career.
That said, claiming that his FV is that of an average MLB player seems aggressive.
His defense is so good that if he takes a few more pitches/pops up less and maybe adds power, he’s a 50. Since those aren’t exactly lofty goals, it seems fine.
yeah. and he was only 23 last year and supposedly had added a lot of strength over the last offseason, and i’ve seen reports that he’s added more over this one. hit game-winning homers in consecutive games down in the winter league playoffs last month. everyone in atlanta seems to still think of him as a placeholder for riley at best, but i’m pretty curious to see what he can do going forward. might be nothing, but pop-up guys are fun
He seems pretty awesome to me, flirting w 300 all year as a 23 year old, slugging 452 and playing solid D across the diamond, bumping the big #1 overall super prospect SS to the bench. But okay, a 45. I’ll take him over half this list easy.
Judge 80 “I’ll have what she’s having”
I’d take Judge on my team in a heartbeat, but his 30.7% k-rate, .357 BABIP and walk rate higher than anything he posted in the minor leagues seems to set him up for at least a little regression.
He had 8.2 fWAR. He’s due for a lot of regression, because any player not named Trout would be due a lot of regression coming off an 8.2 WAR season.
You can just look at his first and second half splits. I feel comfortable calling his first half a fluke. I don’t have much idea what normal will look like for Judge, but likely not 60 HR and an average over .300.
Its a little more complicated than that. Averaging his 2nd half of the season averages together 2 terrible months of July/August with his September where he was great again. In that 2nd half he had prolonged stretches as one of worst hitters in baseball and one of the best.
The question is going forward who is he? Is he going to be somewhere in between? There’s really no evidence of him ever playing consistently at a 4-5WAR level. But its conceivable he ends up there because he constantly fluctuates between great and awful. Or of course he just settles in to something we’ve yet to see.
I suspect this is what is going to happen. He’s going to have several month stretches where he hits like Bryce Harper’s 2015, followed by stretches where he can’t buy a hit.
The problem is that he’s a big guy and while he’s athletic, a lot of things can go wrong. He’s going to constantly need to adjust to how pitchers are attacking him and tune up his mechanics. It’s going to average out to a really, really good player but it will be bumpy.
During the past decade, there were three players who recorded 8.2 war or higher for consecutive seasons.
Pujols and Trout obviously.
And then we have Utley.
The man averaged 7.7 war for 5 seasons (7.2-8.2 war).
The most underrated peak performance of 21st century.
Trout would, as well. It’s just regression upward.
Keep in mind, a 6 win player is an FV75. That’s probably where I’d put him long-term, but if he is a 7 win player he’s still an FV80.
The question these days is mostly whether he’s going to turn merely into a perennial all-star or whether he’s going to remain a Top 3 hitter in the game.
You might expect the player who hits the ball harder than every other player in the sport to also run a high BABIP.
As a Red Sox fan (just so my biases are clear here)… I legitimately think Judge’s floor is Stanton, especially now that he’s shown the ability to adjust at the major league level (twice). He simply vaporizes baseballs, and manages to do so with remarkably good plate coverage and playable discipline. Someone with the first two attributes can easily afford a 30% K rate, especially when they marry it with surprisingly strong defense and baserunning.
He’s simply one of the best players in baseball. Do I think he’s going to put up another 8.2 WAR season next year? Probably not, because almost no one could be expected to be that great. But I fully expect he’s going to be north of 6 WAR, and probably over 7. That’s a superstar.
He also has very good speed relative to most other players who have hit 50+ HRs in a single season, which also makes the high BABIP more sustainable
Hate to admit it but Judge as an 80 PV is just objectively true. He was the best player in baseball last year, which is as good a definition of 80 value as you can possibly have. Now, 80 FV? That appears to assume little/no regression, so I will gladly take the under there.
According to the primer by Kiley, 80 FV corresponds to 7 WAR.
It means that in the future, his true talent level could reach 7 WAR.
What is does not mean is that Judge is expected to hit 7 war next season.
Considering 75 FV is supposed to correspond to 6 WAR, I can easily see the argument for either one, but the choice is not as easy as you might think it is and more importantly, no, 80 FV does not assume little/no regression.
What metric are you using? Best is only objective in a context, otherwise it is completely subjective.
not on the same plain as Trout or both mi for Astros.
Best HR hitter in AL does not make him close to best in MLB.
Nobody is on the same plane as Trout. But the fact of the matter is that he hits the ball harder than anybody else in the game, and other than his new outfield-mate nobody is remotely close. He’s always going to strike out a ton and thus won’t ever be hitting .300, but as long as he stays healthy he’s always going to be among the MLB leaders in HR%, BABIP, and BB%, due to how hard he hits the ball and how much pitchers are going to be throwing out of the strike zone as a result of knowing that. Throw in at least another few years of roughly league-average fielding and baserunning, and you’ve got somebody who’s among the 5 or so best players in the game. That’s 80 value if anything is.
let’s check back “in at least another few years”… as you write.
As of today. I’m selling Judge and buying Correa, Lindor, Altuve. More tools to beat the opposition.
If we go by purely last years stats then the only one out of three you chose good enough to sell judge off is altuve. The defensive metrics between Lindor and Judge is not wide enough to overcome the enormous gap in offensive prodcution. Correa and judge may be closer, but judge (only last year) still, was sizably better than correa offensivley and his defense (which isn’t even that great regardless) can’t make up that difference.
my point. one year of excellence does make a convincing argument for ‘best in baseball’, and look at the year Trout had. Lindor’s defense at SS carries more impact than any corner OF.
Pick your ranking tool… Trout and others above Judge consistently.
He can regress significantly and still hit .250/.380/.580 with league-average fielding and baserunning. That’s still a 6+ win player.
Did Julio Urias’ injury drop him below 50 FV?
::ugly cry emoji::
I’d guess that he wasn’t still considered a prospect going into 2017?
Urias lost elligibility in 2016, yes.
I scanned to find Trey Mancini and was shocked he wasn’t included at all. I’m hoping to understand why to learn more about prospect grades.
Mancini just put up a 117 wRC+ in nearly 600 PA in the big leagues. Had only moderate platoon splits and was not boosted by Camden Yards (hit better on the road). Admittedly the BABIP was high, but so was hard hit rate and ground ball rate. His defense was poor but not disastrous, and he was brand new to playing the outfield. Baserunning was also pretty poor, but in a “he’s slow” way, not a “he ran into a lot of outs” way. It all added up to 1.8 fWAR / 2.2 bWAR across a full year in MLB as a rookie.
I’m genuinely curious how that package doesn’t qualify Mancini as at least a 50 PV/FV in your eyes. Can you please shed some light? Thanks!
The fact he hit better on the road doesn’t mean he wasn’t helped by Camden Yards; it just means he would have hit even worse at home if “home” had been a neutral park. He was also helped by a relatively high BABIP (.352) and HR/FB (19.8%), both of which are likely to come down. (He put up a 135 wRC+ in the first half with the help of a .385 BABIP and a 23.7% HR/FB, but in the second half, with a more reasonable but still above-average .324 BABIP and 16.1% HR/FB, he managed only a 101 wRC+.) And while he was a rookie in 2017, he was already 25, so he shouldn’t be expected to show significant age-based improvement. Steamer projects him to be barely above league average as a hitter next year (105 wRC+), which seems reasonable given a more modest BABIP and HR/FB. A slow, poor defensive LF/1B who’s only a league-averagish hitter is a below-average player, as indicated by his projected 1.4 fWAR. That would suggest a PV/FV of 45 at best, which would not qualify him for this list.
That’s a good explanation, appreciate it. Obviously we could all quibble here and there with counters to specific points/stats/etc., but it seems like you hit on what the authors saw in Mancini. And it sounds perfectly reasonable, although I’d still take the (slight) over. So thanks for the thoughts!
Is Judge really an 80 present and future value?
The guy is a monster don’t get me wrong, and last season was 100% an 80-grade season. But let’s look at some quick facts:
I’m not saying Judge isn’t fantastic. I’m not saying he isn’t one of the top 5 players in baseball. I’m not saying I wouldnt’ take him over any non-Trout player in the game.
But do we really believe that Judge is a true-talent 7 WAR player that an 80-grade would warrant? That’s nearly double his projections!
If we do believe that, then we’re saying that zips/steamer are off by a factor of nearly 100% and that’s a big question in itself.
Does this matter? No, not really. Judge is really good! But if we’re going to pick nits between a 50, 55 and 60, shouldn’t we also do the same between 70, 75 and 80?
Now ask yourself how far zips/steamer were off projecting his 2017 season. The projections are pretty good in aggregate but they are often pretty bad for individual players. True outlier players like Judge are the hardest to predict because they fall outside the distribution of the rest of the players.
But Judge’s year was wholly different than anything he’d done in the minors.
So either he magically figured something out on the fly in the majors (Cano and DeGrom are two others who did something similar) or lots of his year was good fortune. Or both.
He could regress a lot and still be a 5+ win player, which is really saying something. I think last year ends up how career best year, though.
I don’t think leading the world in exit velocity by a long way is good fortune. You can’t fake that. I also wouldn’t be surprised if last year turns out to be his career year since it was so phenomenal. However, as players of his age get more experience they often cut down on strikeouts. What if he cuts down on strikeouts?!
I think people are underestimating the chances of Judge having a rich man’s Adam Dunn career. Which is pretty good! But the guy strikes out so much, and a year ago everyone seemed to think he’d get figured out, would have trouble due to his size, etc. Not sure why we should dispose of those concerns so soon.
On the other hand, as opposed to me, Eric and Kiley have the advantage of knowing what they’re talking about.
The Dunn comparisons are off because Dunn was an ATROCIOUS fielder, while Judge is at least average. And Dunn consistently hit for low BABIP’s, while Judge seems to just hit the ball too hard to have consistently low BABIP’s. Even if you bump Judge up to a 35% K rate, and drop his BABIP to .330, with the power he has and the walks he’s going to draw — along with league-average fielding and baserunning — he’s still a 5+ win player. Take Adam Dunn and give him a BABIP above .320 and roughly league average fielding and baserunning*, and you have one of the best players in the league.
* – The only year Dunn sorta-kinda lived up to this was 2004, when he had a BABIP of .321 and combined fielding + baserunning runs of -5.4… and that year he put up 5.3 fWAR.
Judge had only 6% infield flies last year, after being in the 20s in the minors. I think he settles in closer to 15-17, which will likely bring the BABIP down.
It’s very hard to have tons of homers and no popups. (Unless you are Joey Votto)
Minor league infield fly rate are very inflated. You need to divide them by 2 to get a rough Major league equivalent.
I don’t disagree — although the “rich man’s” caveat was admittedly hand-wavy, the “not being a complete liability in the field” thing was along the lines of what I was thinking.
It just seems to me that, plus a fair amount of regression at the plate and the league figuring him out, all adds up to a guy who’s worth somewhere in the 4-win range. Borderline All-Star, not perennial MVP. I read 80-grade PV and FV to suggest the latter.
He’s obviously going to regress, but my guess as to what Judge really is is something in the way of a guy who hits .260/.380/.580 with 40 homers every year and league-average defense and baserunning. It’s difficult to find comparisons for that type of player, but the closest thing that springs to mind is Jim Thome with more strikeouts and more defensive value — and that’s closer to “perennial MVP” than “borderline All-Star.”
Oh this is good… I know you guys are probably ready for a break, but man I would love some commentary on some of these guys who we plebes still don’t know how to value.
Would Colin Moran qualify for this list?
No, he was on the top 100 prospects, #53 50FV low risk.
Moran has not yet graduated from the ranks of “prospect”, so no… He’d qualify for the top 100 list (or the “performances slapping us in the face” list of those that didn’t make the top 100)
Where would Bregman be?
I’d say he’s a 3.8ish WAR player, maybe with a tick of projection for more power, so maybe like a 60/65 if you like a lot, or just a 60/60.
It is a bit arbitrary to count someone like Swanson but not Bregman because Bregman got 80 more PAs in 2016, but if anything, I think this list is over-inclusive. Bregman has already shown he is a good major leaguer. So has Judge. They are not close to being “prospects” the way Hoskins or Albies are.
If he was suddenly allowed to be prospect eligible again, he’d be #1 (especially if you ignore the tough to evaluate Ohtani).
Three that caught my eye:
Ian Happ: 55 probably is fair, but still interesting for a guy that doesn’t really have a position. That of course could work to advantage if he can learn to play all those positions adequately and hit close to where he did last year, but I’m still not sure if I buy the power.
Matt Champman: I’m bullish on Champman over all so happy to see him at the 60. Strikes me as someone who will may even settle into a 4 win player.
Tyler Glasnow: I know, Randy Johnson put it all together at 29; but he still walks way way too many batters.
On Happ: Joe Maddon is going to need someone to fill in for Ben Zobrist now that he’s 100 years old and unable to be the everyday uber-platooner. Also, IDK how much these rankings are based on having an everyday spot
On Glasnow: It’s just so hard to quit him with all that stuff! Plus he’s only 24.
I’m a bit surprised the Cubs haven’t moved one of Happ/Baez/Schwarber (and if you want to include Russell here, fine) this winter for an arm. Maybe the slowness of everything has mucked up the non-Marlins trade market too? Either that or Happ is Schwarber insurance which probably isn’t the worst idea either with Eloy gone. ANYWAY, putting a 55 on Happ is fair, he could be a 60 or a 50 depending on how the defense all shakes out.
Re: Glasnow… you’re right it’s too early. But man, this really does seem like Daniel Cabrera all over again.
I read somewhere that Glasnow’s problem is that he basically doesn’t use the upper part of the strike zone at all. The author was speculating that he was spending too much time trying to pound the lower part of the zone and missing. I don’t know how much I buy that, but I think he’s still got a shot.
Wow, big drop for Rosario after his first 170 MLB plate appearances.
Nice to see three SP’s for the Rockies on this list.
Now if they could just add a couple of bats…
And, at age 22, Antonio Senzatela won 10 games by mid-July before Rox began to limit his innings
This is a really cool and useful idea. Thanks!
I don’t think it is reasonable to have 10PV/15FV points separating Matt Olson & Rhys Hoskins when Olson had a higher wRC in MLB and is probably a similar to better defender.
Their MiLB numbers are a little different, but Olson was mostly 2 years younger at the levels since he spent two at AAA and MiLB wRC ignores the fact that Midland and Nashville are both places where lefty fly balls go to die.
Olson is good but while he has big power a 41 % hr/fb rate isn’t going to continue as is his babip. Also worse K-Bb rate than hoskins, xwoba also was well under his woba.
I would also be careful with judge due to the K issues. Power is off the charts but I think 4-5 war is more reasonable going forward, wouldn’t give him an 80 right away.
I’m a firm believer that Paul DeJong is criminally underrated even among Cardinal Nation.
He has power but doesn’t he have like a 10 to 1 k/bb rate?
He’s hurt by the Aledmys Diaz out-of-nowhere comparison.
swanson… very high
lamet very low.
look for bellinger to fall like a rock.
no clue on the slider.
45 Present Value on Hader feels a little low. He’s basically already the 3rd best lefty reliever after Miller and Chapman, and a guy who can go multiple inning in an outing when such a skill is becoming more valued by teams. Even with a small sample size I can’t see him being a below league average player.
Felipe Rivero and his extra +1WAR says hi. Hader is not the third best LH RP.
…
You should have added a column with the 2017 FG ranking.
You really just have to watch Swanson to see he’s a slap hitter who begins the AB w a 1980s 2-strike approach. Perhaps these two just go bananas for Dansby’s D because his bat just flat won’t play without major adjustments.
Why no Tapia?
I continue to feel like Josh Bell is criminally underrated. Is it the defense? Switch-hitting 1B with 30+ homer power and a great eye. I think the dude’s gonna be a star.
Also, the bullishness fangraphs is showing on both Moran and Musgrove is making be feel a lot better about the Cole trade. The Bucs have so many wild cards this year. I could easily see than winning anywhere between 70 and 90 games.
if you’re going to be below average at 1b, then you reaaaallly need to hit. like… a lot.
Among qualified 1B, he was 21st in wRC+
and he’s below average at defense.
for him to become a 50, he’ll have to significantly improve.
for him to be a star like you say, he’d have to undergo quite a transformation.
the 2017 version of Bell was encouraging, but not THAT encouraging.
Devers.
No one is speculating on his ranking? Let me be the first then.
Horrible defense. Looks like a boulder running the bases. Can hit a Chapman fastball (102) coming in at eye level to the center field bleachers of Fenway!
I have trouble thinking this guy will continue to impress, but no denying his batting eye.
buying or selling?
Most scouts feel his defense will improve, since he showed much better in the minors than in the majors last year. He’s 20 years old.
Somehow I doubt he’s ever going to be Hamilton on the bases, but he doesn’t really need to be. When he was at his best in 2017, he showed off an all-fields power stroke from the left side with a willingness to take a walk against major league pitching, a seriously positive development after his aggression in the low minors. At 20. That’s an incredibly valuable player almost by definition. If he can pair that with at least average defense, he’ll be a borderline all-star.
There are definitely question marks, as with any young player, and plenty of guesswork is involved in prospect projection. But I’ll take the over on him.
So, this list suggests the Cubs would be well served to trade Ian Happ for Joe Musgrove. I wouldn’t hate that.
Was Robert Stephenson not being on this list an omission or lack of talent?
THE NICKY DELMONICO HATE IS REAL
There is a lot of problems with this list. Don’t have enough time to go through every ranking, but some glaring mistakes need to be brought to light. Happ, Weaver, Green, Olson and DeJong all should be considerably higher. Rosario should be much further down the list. Dominic Smith in front of Josh Bell, how do you explain that?
who here has actually read rankings of top MLB players?
Judge is no better than #8 where I have looked. He is projected 4.0 WAR by Steamer… still fans seem to think he will better that by 2+ WAR.
I’ll sell you my Judge for your Lindor strait up.
Faria had a better debut than most of the people ranked above him.