2018 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals by Carson Cistulli February 7, 2018 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. ZiPS Projections 2018 2017 ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters The Nationals have developed into one of the league’s “super teams” in recent years, having compiled a roster that is rivaled by few others in terms of balance and overall strength. In 2017, for example, both the club’s hitters and pitchers finished seventh or better by WAR. That feat was accomplished by only three other clubs, all of which reached the postseason. Regard: Top-10 Team Batter and Pitcher WAR, 2017 Team Batter WAR Batter Rank Pitcher WAR Pitcher Rank Average Rank Dodgers 30.1 2 24.3 3 2.5 Indians 27.3 4 31.7 1 2.5 Yankees 27.9 3 24.4 2 2.5 Astros 33.0 1 20.8 6 3.5 Nationals 26.1 6 19.8 7 6.5 Cubs 26.7 5 15.9 12 8.5 Cardinals 24.6 8 16.7 10 9.0 D-backs 19.8 14 23.2 5 9.5 Red Sox 17.8 15 23.9 4 9.5 Rays 21.0 13 15.9 13 13.0 With regard to the Nationals’ field-playing cohort, specifically, almost all the principals from the 2017 club return in 2018. Even some of the non-principals return, as well. Bryce Harper (575 PA, 4.9 zWAR) and Anthony Rendon (585, 4.5) are near-MVP types, while Trea Turner (558, 3.4) does quite well here, too. Adam Eaton (583, 3.0), meanwhile, will essentially serve as a new acquisition for Washington after having recorded just 107 plate appearances in his first year with the organization. Ryan Zimmerman (496, 0.8) is the club’s weakest link per ZiPS, forecast for just a 102 wRC+ after producing a 138 wRC+ mark in 2017. Szymborski’s computer calls for a 38-point drop in BABIP (.335 to .297) and 60-point decline in isolated power (.269 to .209), too. Pitchers Both Max Scherzer (190.2, 5.1) and Stephen Strasburg (166.2, 4.0) would represent the best starting pitcher on most clubs in the league. Regardless of how one measures it, that pair combined for no fewer than 11 wins together in 2017 — itself a better mark than half the rotations in the majors last season. To get a sense of their place in historical context, consider their top comps: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, respectively. Gio Gonzalez (172.1, 2.7) and Tanner Roark (172.2, 2.3) are probably not among the best arms of their generation; however, they do profile as capable mid-rotation pieces in the year 2018. After that, the options for a starting role become a bit more scarce. Joe Ross (116.0, 1.5) is included here for reference but is expected to miss most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. Erick Fedde (100.1, 0.9) receives the top projection among the team’s most obvious fifth-starter options. The back end of Washington’s bullpen is composed largely of relative newcomers. Sean Doolittle (46.7 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) and Ryan Madson (51.1, 68, 1.3) arrived in a July deal with Oakland. Both are well suited to high-leverage innings. Brandon Kintzler (58.0, 85, 0.9) also joined the Nationals in July — in this case, from Minnesota. Forecast for just a 13.7% strikeout rate in by ZiPS, he lacks swing-and-miss stuff but compensates for it with an excellent sinking fastball. Bench/Prospects A combination of graduations and trades have rendered the current iteration of the Washington system a bit less impressive than versions of it from recent years, and yet the club has retained one of the most promising young players in baseball, Victor Robles (544 PA, 2.5 zWAR). Ranked fourth on the top-100 list published by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel at the beginning of the week, the 20-year-old outfielder already profiles as an above-average major leaguer according to Szymborski’s computer, compensating for a slightly below-average bat (92 wRC+) with a projected +9 fielding runs in center field. He earns the top forecast among those players on the club who (a) have been omitted from the depth-chart image below and also (b) retain their rookie eligibility. The departure of both Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez has thinned out the pitching depth in the organization. Right-hander A.J. Cole (137.2 IP, 114 ERA-, 0.7 zWAR) remains present, however. He’s an alternative to Fedde for the No. 5 starting role. Wander Suero (61.2, 90, 0.6), meanwhile, has recorded over 200 appearances in the minors for the Nationals without earning a promotion. He has earned, however, the top ERA projection among relievers omitted from the depth chart below. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Bryce Harper L 25 RF 575 93 140 25 2 32 94 9 5 Anthony Rendon R 28 3B 585 83 140 34 2 21 84 9 3 Trea Turner R 25 SS 558 78 144 26 8 14 62 45 8 Adam Eaton L 29 LF 583 83 153 29 9 9 55 14 6 Daniel Murphy L 33 2B 565 77 157 36 3 19 85 4 2 Victor Robles R 21 CF 544 62 122 26 8 11 55 24 13 Michael A. Taylor R 27 CF 479 55 107 19 3 18 56 21 7 Moises Sierra R 29 RF 407 47 102 18 3 9 44 11 4 Wilmer Difo B 26 SS 483 56 115 18 4 7 40 18 5 Matt Wieters B 32 C 420 40 97 19 1 11 54 1 0 Matt Adams L 29 1B 369 40 90 20 1 16 63 1 1 Adam Lind L 34 1B 379 45 95 19 0 14 63 1 0 Brian Goodwin L 27 CF 435 50 94 20 3 13 48 10 3 Ryan Zimmerman R 33 1B 496 66 119 26 1 22 82 1 0 Daniel Johnson L 22 RF 534 60 128 23 5 15 57 18 12 Reid Brignac B 32 SS 412 42 84 17 2 9 40 3 2 Raudy Read R 24 C 448 46 103 23 1 11 49 3 2 Pedro Severino R 24 C 335 31 77 12 1 6 30 2 2 Spencer Kieboom R 27 C 289 30 62 14 1 5 27 0 0 Miguel Montero L 34 C 303 29 61 9 0 8 36 1 1 Kelvin Gutierrez R 23 3B 404 39 92 15 6 4 33 9 4 Corban Joseph L 29 2B 368 38 91 15 1 7 35 2 4 Neftali Soto R 29 1B 505 53 122 26 2 12 56 0 0 Yadiel Hernandez L 30 RF 447 49 106 19 1 8 43 4 2 Stephen Drew L 35 SS 255 24 51 14 1 7 33 0 1 Emmanuel Burriss B 33 SS 293 29 69 9 3 2 22 6 4 Michael Almanzar R 27 3B 438 41 95 20 1 10 43 1 1 Chris Heisey R 33 LF 241 29 45 8 1 10 28 2 1 Balbino Fuenmayor R 28 1B 377 42 95 18 1 13 49 0 0 Adrian Sanchez R 27 SS 373 35 85 17 1 4 31 6 3 Alejandro de Aza L 34 RF 303 35 66 13 4 5 29 5 3 Irving Falu B 35 2B 405 38 96 14 2 5 35 7 6 Jose Marmolejos L 25 1B 503 56 114 25 4 11 55 1 2 Andrew Stevenson L 24 CF 530 51 118 15 6 3 35 19 9 Jayson Werth R 39 LF 384 48 77 15 1 11 41 4 2 Taylor Gushue B 24 C 385 38 76 13 1 11 41 0 0 Ryan Raburn R 37 LF 198 21 39 6 3 5 18 1 1 Drew Ward L 23 3B 500 51 99 20 0 12 48 0 1 Mario Lisson R 34 1B 325 34 59 14 0 9 35 3 2 Jason Martinson R 29 2B 420 41 74 13 2 13 43 6 3 Rafael Bautista R 25 CF 431 44 99 12 3 2 27 23 8 Chris Dominguez R 31 1B 368 39 83 17 1 12 41 8 3 Joey Butler R 32 LF 341 36 72 12 1 8 32 2 1 Osvaldo Abreu R 24 SS 520 50 106 19 4 6 40 8 9 Telmito Agustin L 21 LF 438 44 93 18 3 11 45 12 11 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Bryce Harper 575 16.2% 20.7% .263 .328 .295 .409 .558 .400 146 Anthony Rendon 585 11.6% 16.1% .200 .301 .277 .366 .477 .359 119 Trea Turner 558 6.8% 20.1% .163 .332 .280 .330 .444 .331 100 Adam Eaton 583 8.2% 15.4% .143 .341 .295 .364 .437 .346 111 Daniel Murphy 565 7.1% 11.9% .192 .317 .304 .356 .496 .355 116 Victor Robles 544 5.5% 21.3% .156 .311 .253 .325 .409 .317 92 Michael A. Taylor 479 7.3% 33.2% .180 .337 .244 .301 .424 .307 85 Moises Sierra 407 6.6% 19.2% .136 .322 .272 .327 .408 .317 92 Wilmer Difo 483 5.8% 19.3% .105 .309 .258 .304 .363 .287 72 Matt Wieters 420 7.4% 19.5% .141 .293 .253 .310 .394 .302 82 Matt Adams 369 6.2% 22.8% .205 .302 .264 .309 .469 .324 96 Adam Lind 379 9.0% 17.4% .178 .306 .278 .340 .456 .336 104 Brian Goodwin 435 8.3% 27.8% .165 .309 .239 .303 .405 .302 82 Ryan Zimmerman 496 7.3% 21.8% .209 .297 .264 .319 .473 .333 102 Daniel Johnson 534 4.1% 21.9% .157 .306 .257 .300 .414 .305 84 Reid Brignac 412 8.5% 27.9% .129 .301 .226 .295 .356 .284 70 Raudy Read 448 5.1% 20.5% .138 .288 .245 .288 .383 .288 72 Pedro Severino 335 5.7% 19.4% .103 .293 .248 .293 .350 .279 67 Spencer Kieboom 289 8.0% 21.1% .118 .286 .236 .298 .354 .284 70 Miguel Montero 303 10.9% 22.4% .125 .279 .232 .323 .357 .296 78 Kelvin Gutierrez 404 5.7% 23.8% .104 .317 .245 .290 .349 .278 66 Corban Joseph 368 5.7% 12.2% .111 .288 .266 .309 .377 .296 78 Neftali Soto 505 5.9% 21.0% .140 .310 .260 .305 .400 .301 81 Yadiel Hernandez 447 9.4% 17.7% .113 .311 .265 .335 .378 .311 87 Stephen Drew 255 8.6% 19.6% .162 .253 .224 .291 .386 .290 74 Emmanuel Burriss 293 5.1% 11.6% .077 .283 .254 .299 .331 .275 64 Michael Almanzar 438 4.3% 25.3% .127 .291 .232 .272 .359 .271 61 Chris Heisey 241 8.7% 28.2% .185 .252 .208 .283 .394 .292 75 Balbino Fuenmayor 377 4.5% 19.4% .166 .303 .268 .305 .434 .313 89 Adrian Sanchez 373 4.6% 19.0% .089 .293 .244 .281 .332 .266 58 Alejandro de Aza 303 8.3% 20.8% .133 .298 .244 .312 .376 .297 78 Irving Falu 405 5.7% 10.9% .088 .277 .257 .298 .345 .279 67 Jose Marmolejos 503 7.6% 24.1% .145 .313 .250 .310 .395 .302 82 Andrew Stevenson 530 6.2% 22.3% .073 .310 .240 .290 .314 .266 58 Jayson Werth 384 11.5% 24.0% .150 .282 .231 .323 .380 .307 85 Taylor Gushue 385 6.5% 27.8% .136 .272 .215 .270 .351 .266 58 Ryan Raburn 198 9.6% 31.8% .155 .312 .224 .303 .379 .293 76 Drew Ward 500 9.0% 32.0% .125 .312 .221 .296 .347 .282 68 Mario Lisson 325 9.2% 31.7% .142 .279 .205 .286 .347 .277 65 Jason Martinson 420 6.9% 40.5% .146 .302 .193 .256 .339 .259 53 Rafael Bautista 431 5.1% 17.6% .060 .301 .249 .295 .309 .267 59 Chris Dominguez 368 3.0% 29.6% .158 .307 .238 .269 .395 .282 69 Joey Butler 341 8.2% 26.7% .123 .305 .234 .303 .357 .288 73 Osvaldo Abreu 520 6.0% 26.5% .094 .298 .222 .275 .317 .260 54 Telmito Agustin 438 3.9% 31.7% .138 .309 .225 .256 .362 .264 57 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Bryce Harper 575 8.7 153 1 4.9 Manny Ramirez Anthony Rendon 585 6.6 121 7 4.5 Todd Zeile Trea Turner 558 6.1 103 2 3.4 Ryne Sandberg Adam Eaton 583 6.1 112 7 3.0 Gene Richards Daniel Murphy 565 6.8 123 -8 2.7 Charlie Gehringer Victor Robles 544 4.8 93 9 2.5 Ray Lankford Michael A. Taylor 479 4.7 90 3 1.5 Justin Ruggiano Moises Sierra 407 5.0 94 6 1.3 Gabe Kapler Wilmer Difo 483 4.2 76 4 1.2 Curtis Wilkerson Matt Wieters 420 4.4 85 -3 1.2 Jamie Quirk Matt Adams 369 5.3 103 5 1.0 Daryle Ward Adam Lind 379 5.8 109 0 0.9 Kevin Millar Brian Goodwin 435 4.5 85 0 0.9 Chris Wakeland Ryan Zimmerman 496 5.6 106 -4 0.8 Eric Karros Daniel Johnson 534 4.4 87 5 0.8 Otis Green Reid Brignac 412 3.6 72 3 0.7 Shanie Dugas Raudy Read 448 3.9 76 -3 0.7 Brook Fordyce Pedro Severino 335 3.6 70 1 0.5 Scott Ackerman Spencer Kieboom 289 3.7 72 -1 0.4 Mike Nickeas Miguel Montero 303 4.0 81 -4 0.4 Jamie Quirk Kelvin Gutierrez 404 3.7 69 4 0.4 Ron Gardenhire Corban Joseph 368 4.1 81 -1 0.3 Tim Krauss Neftali Soto 505 4.4 85 4 0.3 Shawn Wooten Yadiel Hernandez 447 4.6 89 -3 0.2 Jim Eppard Stephen Drew 255 3.8 78 -2 0.2 Geoff Blum Emmanuel Burriss 293 3.5 67 0 0.1 Jose Uribe Michael Almanzar 438 3.4 66 4 0.1 Brant Ust Chris Heisey 241 3.8 77 2 0.1 Dustan Mohr Balbino Fuenmayor 377 4.9 93 -2 0.1 Walter Young Adrian Sanchez 373 3.3 62 1 -0.1 Jace Brewer Alejandro de Aza 303 4.2 82 -1 -0.1 Dann Howitt Irving Falu 405 3.6 70 0 -0.1 Edgar Caceres Jose Marmolejos 503 4.3 85 0 -0.2 Mike Maksudian Andrew Stevenson 530 3.3 61 3 -0.2 Trench Davis Jayson Werth 384 4.3 86 -6 -0.2 Greg Vaughn Taylor Gushue 385 3.3 63 -5 -0.3 Michael McCormick Ryan Raburn 198 3.9 80 -3 -0.3 Curtis Pride Drew Ward 500 3.5 70 -5 -0.4 Greg David Mario Lisson 325 3.3 67 4 -0.4 Ty Van Burkleo Jason Martinson 420 2.9 56 2 -0.5 Trace Coquillette Rafael Bautista 431 3.5 61 -2 -0.5 Tom Goodwin Chris Dominguez 368 3.8 73 0 -0.6 John Cotton Joey Butler 341 3.8 75 -7 -0.9 Chris Pritchett Osvaldo Abreu 520 2.8 57 -4 -1.0 Jason Bowers Telmito Agustin 438 3.0 62 0 -1.3 Jimmy White *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Max Scherzer R 33 30 30 190.7 247 51 23 149 68 64 Stephen Strasburg R 29 28 28 166.7 197 40 18 144 63 59 Gio Gonzalez L 32 30 30 172.3 162 66 18 165 81 76 Tanner Roark R 31 30 29 172.7 147 55 23 170 87 81 Joe Ross R 25 22 21 116.0 101 31 17 121 59 55 Ryan Madson R 37 53 0 51.3 53 13 4 45 18 17 Sean Doolittle L 31 51 0 46.7 62 9 7 38 18 17 Erick Fedde R 25 29 17 100.3 83 34 14 108 55 51 Brandon Kintzler R 33 60 0 58.0 34 13 5 62 26 24 A.J. Cole R 26 27 25 137.7 111 51 24 149 81 76 Wander Suero R 26 53 0 61.7 52 24 6 61 29 27 Jaron Long R 26 26 24 141.0 89 33 24 166 86 80 Trevor Gott R 25 47 0 54.0 42 22 3 54 25 23 Enny Romero L 27 61 0 61.3 67 28 7 56 30 28 Joe Blanton R 37 50 0 52.7 50 16 7 51 25 23 Koda Glover R 25 43 0 49.3 50 12 7 48 24 22 Matt Grace L 29 51 1 63.7 44 23 5 67 31 29 Austin Voth R 26 25 24 125.0 92 54 19 138 76 71 Oliver Perez L 36 52 0 34.7 41 15 4 32 16 15 Shawn Kelley R 34 48 0 39.7 48 13 7 36 19 18 Aaron Barrett R 30 31 0 25.3 26 10 2 24 11 10 Francisco Rodriguez R 36 42 0 38.7 37 14 6 36 19 18 Justin Miller R 31 44 0 50.0 42 16 6 51 26 24 Jefry Rodriguez R 24 18 17 76.7 54 44 8 82 47 44 Kaleb Fleck R 29 43 0 52.0 53 26 6 50 28 26 Austin L. Adams R 27 47 0 57.0 74 54 5 45 31 29 Sammy Solis L 29 42 0 41.3 43 20 6 39 22 21 Neal Cotts L 38 48 0 43.0 42 17 7 43 24 22 Tommy Milone L 31 23 18 97.3 69 26 21 114 62 58 Logan Darnell L 29 17 14 81.3 48 30 13 96 52 49 Rafael Martin R 34 49 0 54.3 52 21 9 56 31 29 Cody Satterwhite R 31 32 1 49.7 42 23 7 52 29 27 Roman Mendez R 27 35 0 47.3 40 24 7 49 29 27 Joe Nathan R 43 30 0 27.0 27 14 5 28 17 16 Chris S. Smith R 29 37 1 44.0 37 15 9 48 28 26 Ryan Brinley R 25 38 0 45.3 30 12 8 53 28 26 Austen Williams R 25 22 22 109.3 63 39 18 132 73 68 Tim Collins L 28 26 0 27.0 27 21 5 27 18 17 Taylor Hill R 29 26 24 136.3 68 39 25 170 91 85 David Goforth R 29 51 0 56.7 42 34 7 61 35 33 John Simms R 26 25 23 124.7 87 49 23 144 85 79 Sean O’Sullivan R 30 20 19 96.0 58 36 18 115 66 62 Dakota Bacus R 27 26 8 71.7 50 33 13 83 49 46 Kyle Schepel R 27 38 0 51.3 47 35 8 52 34 32 Edwin Jackson R 34 28 16 94.7 75 45 18 106 65 61 Jeremy Guthrie R 39 23 20 115.7 69 43 22 143 81 76 Greg Ross R 28 24 21 118.0 60 48 21 145 82 77 Jeff Ames R 27 46 1 58.7 58 44 10 59 41 38 Braulio Lara L 29 36 3 50.3 45 39 9 55 37 35 Kyle McGowin R 26 21 21 105.3 74 49 23 126 78 73 Matt Crownover L 25 25 19 108.0 67 50 22 132 80 75 Derek Self R 28 37 1 56.0 34 24 13 70 44 41 Jimmy Cordero R 26 40 0 46.7 32 40 9 55 40 37 Wirkin Estevez R 26 21 19 99.0 50 55 20 125 79 74 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Max Scherzer 190.7 772 32.0% 6.6% .284 3.02 3.03 69 71 Stephen Strasburg 166.7 684 28.8% 5.8% .296 3.19 2.94 73 68 Gio Gonzalez 172.3 748 21.7% 8.8% .296 3.97 3.84 91 89 Tanner Roark 172.7 743 19.8% 7.4% .288 4.22 4.19 97 98 Joe Ross 116.0 500 20.2% 6.2% .300 4.27 4.17 98 97 Ryan Madson 51.3 212 25.0% 6.1% .293 2.98 2.87 68 67 Sean Doolittle 46.7 187 33.2% 4.8% .284 3.28 2.96 75 69 Erick Fedde 100.3 443 18.7% 7.7% .307 4.57 4.48 105 105 Brandon Kintzler 58.0 249 13.7% 5.2% .292 3.72 3.83 85 89 A.J. Cole 137.7 613 18.1% 8.3% .298 4.97 5.03 114 117 Wander Suero 61.7 270 19.3% 8.9% .297 3.94 3.95 90 92 Jaron Long 141.0 622 14.3% 5.3% .303 5.11 4.94 117 115 Trevor Gott 54.0 238 17.6% 9.2% .304 3.83 3.60 88 84 Enny Romero 61.3 268 25.0% 10.4% .299 4.11 3.88 94 90 Joe Blanton 52.7 225 22.2% 7.1% .293 3.93 3.84 90 90 Koda Glover 49.3 208 24.0% 5.8% .299 4.01 3.83 92 89 Matt Grace 63.7 281 15.7% 8.2% .301 4.10 3.88 94 90 Austin Voth 125.0 567 16.2% 9.5% .301 5.11 5.10 117 119 Oliver Perez 34.7 151 27.2% 9.9% .322 3.89 3.76 89 88 Shawn Kelley 39.7 168 28.6% 7.7% .290 4.08 3.86 93 90 Aaron Barrett 25.3 110 23.6% 9.1% .310 3.55 3.43 81 80 Francisco Rodriguez 38.7 166 22.3% 8.4% .275 4.19 4.27 96 100 Justin Miller 50.0 217 19.4% 7.4% .298 4.32 4.12 99 96 Jefry Rodriguez 76.7 356 15.2% 12.4% .302 5.17 5.02 118 117 Kaleb Fleck 52.0 232 22.8% 11.2% .306 4.50 4.18 103 97 Austin L. Adams 57.0 270 27.4% 20.0% .301 4.58 4.65 105 108 Sammy Solis 41.3 183 23.5% 10.9% .295 4.57 4.49 105 105 Neal Cotts 43.0 189 22.2% 9.0% .298 4.60 4.51 105 105 Tommy Milone 97.3 432 16.0% 6.0% .297 5.36 5.38 123 125 Logan Darnell 81.3 370 13.0% 8.1% .302 5.42 5.31 124 124 Rafael Martin 54.3 240 21.7% 8.8% .303 4.80 4.56 110 106 Cody Satterwhite 49.7 224 18.8% 10.3% .302 4.89 4.81 112 112 Roman Mendez 47.3 215 18.6% 11.2% .298 5.13 5.04 117 117 Joe Nathan 27.0 123 22.0% 11.4% .303 5.33 5.12 122 119 Chris S. Smith 44.0 195 19.0% 7.7% .298 5.32 5.29 122 123 Ryan Brinley 45.3 201 14.9% 6.0% .304 5.16 5.12 118 119 Austen Williams 109.3 499 12.6% 7.8% .306 5.60 5.41 128 126 Tim Collins 27.0 129 20.9% 16.3% .293 5.67 5.90 130 138 Taylor Hill 136.3 618 11.0% 6.3% .303 5.61 5.58 128 130 David Goforth 56.7 265 15.8% 12.8% .302 5.24 5.08 120 118 John Simms 124.7 567 15.3% 8.6% .302 5.70 5.51 130 128 Sean O’Sullivan 96.0 439 13.2% 8.2% .302 5.81 5.67 133 132 Dakota Bacus 71.7 331 15.1% 10.0% .303 5.78 5.63 132 131 Kyle Schepel 51.3 241 19.5% 14.5% .297 5.61 5.57 128 130 Edwin Jackson 94.7 435 17.2% 10.3% .298 5.80 5.47 133 128 Jeremy Guthrie 115.7 533 12.9% 8.1% .309 5.91 5.76 135 134 Greg Ross 118.0 547 11.0% 8.8% .302 5.87 5.83 134 136 Jeff Ames 58.7 279 20.8% 15.8% .299 5.83 5.80 133 135 Braulio Lara 50.3 245 18.4% 15.9% .309 6.26 6.14 143 143 Kyle McGowin 105.3 491 15.1% 10.0% .304 6.24 6.16 143 144 Matt Crownover 108.0 506 13.2% 9.9% .306 6.25 6.09 143 142 Derek Self 56.0 262 13.0% 9.2% .303 6.59 6.30 151 147 Jimmy Cordero 46.7 235 13.6% 17.0% .305 7.14 6.99 163 163 Wirkin Estevez 99.0 477 10.5% 11.5% .303 6.73 6.59 154 154 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Max Scherzer 190.7 11.66 2.41 1.09 142 5.1 Roger Clemens Stephen Strasburg 166.7 10.64 2.16 0.97 133 4.0 Curt Schilling Gio Gonzalez 172.3 8.46 3.45 0.94 107 2.7 Johnny Vander Meer Tanner Roark 172.7 7.66 2.87 1.20 101 2.3 Ken Hill Joe Ross 116.0 7.84 2.41 1.32 99 1.5 Marty Janzen Ryan Madson 51.3 9.29 2.28 0.70 144 1.3 Mariano Rivera Sean Doolittle 46.7 11.96 1.74 1.35 131 1.1 Gabe White Erick Fedde 100.3 7.45 3.05 1.26 93 0.9 Mike LaCoss Brandon Kintzler 58.0 5.28 2.02 0.78 114 0.9 Dick Coffman A.J. Cole 137.7 7.26 3.33 1.57 85 0.7 Bob Milacki Wander Suero 61.7 7.59 3.50 0.88 108 0.6 Jerry Reed Jaron Long 141.0 5.68 2.11 1.53 84 0.6 Dave Eiland Trevor Gott 54.0 7.00 3.67 0.50 111 0.6 Ray Herbert Enny Romero 61.3 9.83 4.11 1.03 105 0.6 Scott Wiegandt Joe Blanton 52.7 8.54 2.73 1.20 109 0.6 Ted Wilks Koda Glover 49.3 9.12 2.19 1.28 106 0.5 Julio Mateo Matt Grace 63.7 6.22 3.25 0.71 104 0.5 Dave Tomlin Austin Voth 125.0 6.62 3.89 1.37 83 0.5 Steve Falteisek Oliver Perez 34.7 10.64 3.89 1.04 109 0.4 Norm Charlton Shawn Kelley 39.7 10.89 2.95 1.59 105 0.4 Stan Belinda Aaron Barrett 25.3 9.24 3.55 0.71 120 0.4 Jerry Dipoto Francisco Rodriguez 38.7 8.61 3.26 1.40 101 0.3 Mike Fetters Justin Miller 50.0 7.56 2.88 1.08 100 0.3 Todd Erdos Jefry Rodriguez 76.7 6.34 5.17 0.94 82 0.2 Jesus Silva Kaleb Fleck 52.0 9.17 4.50 1.04 94 0.2 Roy Corcoran Austin L. Adams 57.0 11.68 8.53 0.79 94 0.2 Clay Bryant Sammy Solis 41.3 9.36 4.35 1.31 94 0.2 Mike Kinnunen Neal Cotts 43.0 8.79 3.56 1.47 93 0.2 Rich Rodriguez Tommy Milone 97.3 6.38 2.40 1.94 80 0.2 Dave Johnson Logan Darnell 81.3 5.31 3.32 1.44 79 0.1 Jimmy Anderson Rafael Martin 54.3 8.61 3.48 1.49 88 0.0 Tom Hume Cody Satterwhite 49.7 7.61 4.17 1.27 87 0.0 Jerry Johnson Roman Mendez 47.3 7.61 4.56 1.33 84 -0.1 Jamie Emiliano Joe Nathan 27.0 9.00 4.67 1.67 81 -0.1 Jose Mesa Chris S. Smith 44.0 7.57 3.07 1.84 81 -0.1 Tony Hudson Ryan Brinley 45.3 5.96 2.38 1.59 82 -0.1 Eddie Fisher Austen Williams 109.3 5.19 3.21 1.48 76 -0.2 Jason Karnuth Tim Collins 27.0 9.00 7.00 1.67 76 -0.2 Kevin Tolar Taylor Hill 136.3 4.49 2.57 1.65 76 -0.2 Clay Condrey David Goforth 56.7 6.67 5.40 1.11 81 -0.2 Bucky Brandon John Simms 124.7 6.28 3.54 1.66 74 -0.3 Paul Miller Sean O’Sullivan 96.0 5.44 3.38 1.69 73 -0.4 Ricardo Rodriguez Dakota Bacus 71.7 6.28 4.14 1.63 73 -0.4 Preston Larrison Kyle Schepel 51.3 8.24 6.14 1.40 76 -0.4 Jake Robbins Edwin Jackson 94.7 7.13 4.28 1.71 73 -0.4 Russ Ortiz Jeremy Guthrie 115.7 5.37 3.35 1.71 73 -0.5 Ed Riley Greg Ross 118.0 4.58 3.66 1.60 72 -0.5 Dana Kiecker Jeff Ames 58.7 8.90 6.75 1.53 74 -0.5 Jake Robbins Braulio Lara 50.3 8.05 6.97 1.61 69 -0.6 James Wray Kyle McGowin 105.3 6.32 4.19 1.97 69 -0.8 Patrick Coogan Matt Crownover 108.0 5.58 4.17 1.83 68 -0.9 Joe Horgan Derek Self 56.0 5.46 3.86 2.09 64 -1.0 Steven Rowe Jimmy Cordero 46.7 6.17 7.71 1.74 60 -1.2 Matt Smith Wirkin Estevez 99.0 4.55 5.00 1.82 64 -1.3 Mark Woodyard *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.