2018 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Nationals have developed into one of the league’s “super teams” in recent years, having compiled a roster that is rivaled by few others in terms of balance and overall strength. In 2017, for example, both the club’s hitters and pitchers finished seventh or better by WAR. That feat was accomplished by only three other clubs, all of which reached the postseason.

Regard:

With regard to the Nationals’ field-playing cohort, specifically, almost all the principals from the 2017 club return in 2018. Even some of the non-principals return, as well. Bryce Harper (575 PA, 4.9 zWAR) and Anthony Rendon (585, 4.5) are near-MVP types, while Trea Turner (558, 3.4) does quite well here, too. Adam Eaton (583, 3.0), meanwhile, will essentially serve as a new acquisition for Washington after having recorded just 107 plate appearances in his first year with the organization.

Ryan Zimmerman (496, 0.8) is the club’s weakest link per ZiPS, forecast for just a 102 wRC+ after producing a 138 wRC+ mark in 2017. Szymborski’s computer calls for a 38-point drop in BABIP (.335 to .297) and 60-point decline in isolated power (.269 to .209), too.

Pitchers
Both Max Scherzer (190.2, 5.1) and Stephen Strasburg (166.2, 4.0) would represent the best starting pitcher on most clubs in the league. Regardless of how one measures it, that pair combined for no fewer than 11 wins together in 2017 — itself a better mark than half the rotations in the majors last season. To get a sense of their place in historical context, consider their top comps: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, respectively.

Gio Gonzalez (172.1, 2.7) and Tanner Roark (172.2, 2.3) are probably not among the best arms of their generation; however, they do profile as capable mid-rotation pieces in the year 2018. After that, the options for a starting role become a bit more scarce. Joe Ross (116.0, 1.5) is included here for reference but is expected to miss most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. Erick Fedde (100.1, 0.9) receives the top projection among the team’s most obvious fifth-starter options.

The back end of Washington’s bullpen is composed largely of relative newcomers. Sean Doolittle (46.7 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) and Ryan Madson (51.1, 68, 1.3) arrived in a July deal with Oakland. Both are well suited to high-leverage innings. Brandon Kintzler (58.0, 85, 0.9) also joined the Nationals in July — in this case, from Minnesota. Forecast for just a 13.7% strikeout rate in by ZiPS, he lacks swing-and-miss stuff but compensates for it with an excellent sinking fastball.

Bench/Prospects
A combination of graduations and trades have rendered the current iteration of the Washington system a bit less impressive than versions of it from recent years, and yet the club has retained one of the most promising young players in baseball, Victor Robles (544 PA, 2.5 zWAR). Ranked fourth on the top-100 list published by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel at the beginning of the week, the 20-year-old outfielder already profiles as an above-average major leaguer according to Szymborski’s computer, compensating for a slightly below-average bat (92 wRC+) with a projected +9 fielding runs in center field. He earns the top forecast among those players on the club who (a) have been omitted from the depth-chart image below and also (b) retain their rookie eligibility.

The departure of both Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez has thinned out the pitching depth in the organization. Right-hander A.J. Cole (137.2 IP, 114 ERA-, 0.7 zWAR) remains present, however. He’s an alternative to Fedde for the No. 5 starting role. Wander Suero (61.2, 90, 0.6), meanwhile, has recorded over 200 appearances in the minors for the Nationals without earning a promotion. He has earned, however, the top ERA projection among relievers omitted from the depth chart below.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.