2018 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
While some organizations have had success with a “stars-and-scrubs” approach to roster construction, history reveals that the star-and-scrubs tactic has been considerably less successful. Were Kevin Pillar (616 PA, 2.9 zWAR), Russell Martin (402, 2.4), and Justin Smoak (518, 2.2) to fall even a half-win short of their respective ZiPS forecasts in 2018, however, that’s precisely what would result in Toronto.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson (572, 5.6) is clearly the centerpiece of the Blue Jays’ field-playing contingent. His projected batting line — which, of course, features adjustments both for aging and regression to the mean — would nevertheless place him among the league’s top 20 batters. The fielding number (+6 runs at third base) produced by Dan Szymborski’s computer would render Donaldson the equivalent of a league-average shortstop.

As for what’s missing, the club would probably benefit most immediately from some assistance at a corner-outfield spot. Neither Teoscar Hernandez (553, 1.2) nor Steve Pearce (318, 0.8) profile as anything much better than a strong bench piece at the moment, nor do any superior options exist on the major-league roster.

Pitchers
While Blue Jays position players produced the second-worst collective WAR among their peers in 2017, the pitching staff fared much better, recording the 11th-best mark in the league. The principal members of the rotation all return in 2018. Marcus Stroman (190.2 IP, 4.3 zWAR), Aaron Sanchez (142.2, 2.8), J.A. Happ (142.0, 2.7), and Marco Estrada (162.2, 1.9) appear to form the foundation of a capable starting group. Joe Biagini (123.1, 1.2) is also expected to produce wins at a roughly average rate.

As for the bullpen, it represents the club’s one legitimate strength. A very cursory examination of last year’s ZiPS forecasts reveals zero cases in which a club’s top-five relievers were projected to record six wins collectively (as the Jays’ top-five relievers are here). Roberto Osuna (73.1 IP, 65 ERA-, 2.0 zWAR) is obviously the leader of the group, but Dominic Leone (68.2, 85, 1.2) and Aaron Loup (55.0, 83, 1.0) are both very well acquitted by ZiPS on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects
Anthony Alford (384 PA, 1.3 zWAR) received just eight plate appearances in the majors last year and only slightly more than that at Triple-A. Nevertheless, he’s Toronto’s second-best outfielder, according to Szymborski’s computer. His value is largely confined to his defensive ability: while forecast for a batting line roughly 30% worse than average (73 wRC+), Alford is projected to record +10 fielding runs (or its equivalent in the minors) in center, in fewer than 400 plate appearances. He profiles roughly as Kevin Pillar’s equal, in other words, and Pillar has been one of the top two or three defensive outfielders in the majors over the last three seasons.

Bo Bichette (497, 1.0) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (509, 0.8) will likely appear atop most Blue Jays prospect lists this year, and they receive very promising forecasts here relative to their ages — just not sufficient to transform the Toronto Blue Jays in 2018. Catcher Danny Jansen (416, 1.2), who ascended to Triple-A last year after starting the season in High-A, appears capable of helping in a bench capacity.

Whatever the pitching staff’s strengths, depth doesn’t seem to be one of them. Brett Anderson (97.1 IP, 107 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) pitched well in a brief sting with Toronto but has departed via free agency. Mike Bolsinger (95.1, 109, 0.9) pitched less well and has also become a free agent.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.