2018 ZiPS Projections – Oakland A’s by Carson Cistulli December 8, 2017 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland A’s. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. ZiPS Projections 20182017ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters It’s inaccurate to say that ZiPS is “pessimistic” about the Oakland A’s. It’s inaccurate not because the ZiPS projections for Oakland are particularly good, but rather because ZiPS is incapable of of pessimism. It’s the unfeeling product of a proprietary algorithm applied to historical data, not a sentient being. It would be entirely reasonable, on the other hand, to declare that a human person is pessimistic about the Oakland A’s after examining the ZiPS projections. Indeed, a brief inspection of the numbers here suggests that it’s one of the few logical conclusions to be drawn. The depth-chart image below reveals five positions — catcher, second base, left field, center field, and right field — at which Oakland receives a rounded WAR projection of 1.0. Of course, the precise arrangement of certain players is subject to change. While Matt Joyce (431 PA, 0.6 zWAR) is more or less established in right field, for example, the roles of Mark Canha (489, 0.5), Dustin Fowler (460, 0.7), and Chad Pinder (463, 0.3) are all somewhat mutable. However they’re deployed, though, none of them appear particularly well suited to more than a bench role for now. In a more promising development, two of the organization’s top young players from 2017, Matt Chapman (521, 2.8) and Matt Olson (565, 2.3), receive promising forecasts. The might very well represent a core around which the club can build. Pitchers Oakland pitchers combined for 10.3 WAR in 2017. Right-hander Sonny Gray accounted for more than 20% of that even though he recorded less than 7% of the club’s total innings — a feat he’s unlikely to match in 2018, on account of he’s now employed by the Yankees. Unsurprisingly, the projections for Oakland’s remaining pitchers are rather modest. Left-hander Sean Manaea (154.2 IP, 2.3 zWAR) represents the only one, in fact, to receive a forecast of two wins or better. That’s not to say there’s no hint of promise. ZiPS calls for Jharel Cotton (144.0, 1.4), Kendall Graveman (129.0, 1.6), Jesse Hahn (100.2, 1.1), Daniel Mengden (113.0, 1.1), and Andrew Triggs (96.2, 1.3) all to produce wins at an average-or-better rate. Almost every one of them, however, is projected for something less than a full complement of innings. As for the bullpen, one actually finds a pretty strong unit. Blake Treinen (72.1 IP, 84 ERA-, 1.3 zWAR) is expected to close, but Liam Hendriks (62.2, 84, 1.1) and Yusmeiro Petit (76.2, 93, 1.0) look well equipped to handle high-leverage innings, as well. Bench/Prospects Joey Wendle (563 PA, 1.1 zWAR) is the recipient of the top ZiPS projection among players not included in the depth-chart image below. He was also designated for assignment literally 22 hours ago. The forecasts suggest he could be of some use at second base; clearly, the A’s don’t totally agree. Outfielder Ramon Laureano (521, 0.9), acquired in a trade with Houston in November, earns the top projection of Oakland’s rookie-eligible field players. Right-hander Paul Blackburn (138.1 IP, 1.3 zWAR) failed to recorded a strikeout rate greater than 10% in roughly 60 innings with Oakland this past season. He throws strikes, though, and limits damage on contact. He earns the top projection among the pitchers excluded from the depth chart. Among relievers, Daniel Coulombe (57.1, 88, 0.7) receives that distinction. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Athletics, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Matt Chapman R 25 3B 521 66 105 24 3 27 73 5 4 Khris Davis R 30 LF 586 81 133 27 2 36 104 4 1 Matt Olson L 24 1B 565 76 117 27 1 33 88 2 0 Marcus Semien R 27 SS 532 67 120 25 3 19 61 11 2 Jed Lowrie B 34 2B 521 59 120 28 2 9 49 0 0 Joey Wendle L 28 2B 563 60 131 31 5 12 60 9 3 Bruce Maxwell L 27 C 355 34 75 16 0 7 35 0 1 Boog Powell L 25 CF 432 53 101 14 3 7 36 11 9 Ramon Laureano R 23 RF 521 60 108 24 5 11 51 22 8 Sean Murphy R 23 C 389 39 80 14 0 10 37 0 0 Dustin Fowler L 23 CF 460 54 113 24 6 15 65 14 8 Dustin Garneau R 30 C 307 32 62 15 1 8 31 1 2 Matthew Joyce L 33 RF 431 53 86 20 1 16 53 3 2 Franklin Barreto R 22 SS 588 64 130 22 5 16 58 17 10 Mark Canha R 29 RF 489 57 106 27 3 16 59 5 1 Jake Smolinski R 29 CF 357 37 79 19 2 9 38 3 3 Jorge Mateo R 23 SS 577 60 121 23 12 13 60 35 13 Nick Martini L 28 LF 489 52 104 19 3 6 41 6 2 Yairo Munoz R 23 SS 488 50 114 21 3 12 52 14 5 Josh Phegley R 30 C 242 28 51 15 1 6 28 0 1 Chris Carter R 31 1B 460 53 86 18 1 24 68 1 1 Beau Taylor L 28 C 308 30 58 12 1 5 25 1 1 Chad Pinder R 26 SS 463 51 100 22 2 16 53 5 4 Jermaine Curtis R 30 3B 314 32 62 11 0 4 24 3 1 Sheldon Neuse R 23 3B 489 51 107 18 3 11 45 10 6 Max Schrock L 23 2B 529 55 124 21 2 8 45 8 3 Richie Martin R 23 SS 452 44 91 15 4 4 33 11 6 Matt McBride R 33 C 297 32 64 18 1 9 34 1 1 B.J. Boyd L 24 CF 577 56 132 20 5 5 43 11 5 Renato Nunez R 24 LF 538 67 118 25 1 28 78 2 1 Ryan Lavarnway R 30 C 312 30 62 12 0 6 26 0 1 Anthony Garcia R 26 LF 428 48 91 19 2 11 45 5 3 Jaff Decker L 28 CF 426 43 84 16 2 9 34 12 5 Melvin Mercedes B 26 2B 343 31 64 9 2 1 17 7 4 Frank Schwindel R 26 1B 540 56 131 29 0 17 65 0 1 Sandber Pimentel L 23 1B 401 43 78 12 0 12 40 0 0 Kenny Wilson R 28 CF 436 40 83 15 3 4 29 17 9 Brett Vertigan L 27 LF 429 39 82 15 2 2 25 10 3 J.P. Sportman R 26 RF 533 48 107 19 4 8 45 10 5 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Matt Chapman 521 8.8% 31.7% .238 .280 .225 .298 .463 .319 100 Khris Davis 586 9.2% 27.6% .267 .296 .256 .329 .523 .356 125 Matt Olson 565 11.3% 28.1% .260 .276 .238 .328 .498 .347 119 Marcus Semien 532 9.0% 22.2% .184 .294 .251 .320 .435 .323 102 Jed Lowrie 521 9.4% 15.5% .127 .293 .258 .330 .385 .311 94 Joey Wendle 563 3.7% 20.1% .145 .291 .247 .283 .392 .287 77 Bruce Maxwell 355 9.0% 22.5% .116 .289 .234 .302 .350 .286 77 Boog Powell 432 9.0% 17.4% .107 .307 .263 .331 .370 .307 91 Ramon Laureano 521 7.7% 26.1% .143 .298 .230 .299 .372 .292 81 Sean Murphy 389 5.9% 19.3% .123 .253 .223 .271 .345 .268 64 Dustin Fowler 460 3.9% 20.0% .185 .295 .259 .290 .444 .309 92 Dustin Garneau 307 7.2% 22.5% .147 .266 .223 .288 .371 .284 75 Matthew Joyce 431 13.0% 22.5% .191 .270 .234 .336 .425 .328 106 Franklin Barreto 588 4.9% 27.6% .146 .307 .238 .285 .384 .286 77 Mark Canha 489 7.2% 23.9% .184 .289 .241 .307 .425 .313 95 Jake Smolinski 357 6.4% 17.9% .155 .277 .245 .306 .399 .304 89 Jorge Mateo 577 5.2% 29.8% .160 .303 .225 .268 .385 .278 71 Nick Martini 489 9.6% 20.7% .099 .297 .240 .318 .339 .289 79 Yairo Munoz 488 3.7% 19.7% .136 .284 .246 .275 .381 .280 72 Josh Phegley 242 5.4% 17.8% .157 .256 .229 .281 .386 .286 77 Chris Carter 460 11.1% 33.5% .231 .274 .216 .309 .446 .321 101 Beau Taylor 308 9.4% 28.6% .105 .286 .210 .286 .315 .265 63 Chad Pinder 463 5.0% 28.1% .172 .294 .233 .281 .406 .293 82 Jermaine Curtis 314 9.9% 18.5% .085 .275 .229 .326 .314 .288 78 Sheldon Neuse 489 6.1% 28.2% .126 .313 .236 .286 .361 .279 72 Max Schrock 529 4.9% 10.8% .099 .268 .250 .293 .349 .280 73 Richie Martin 452 6.0% 21.2% .085 .277 .221 .284 .306 .262 60 Matt McBride 297 5.4% 18.5% .171 .257 .233 .279 .404 .291 80 B.J. Boyd 577 5.0% 17.7% .083 .292 .245 .287 .328 .268 64 Renato Nunez 538 6.1% 27.1% .224 .276 .238 .290 .463 .316 97 Ryan Lavarnway 312 8.0% 22.8% .107 .273 .221 .293 .327 .275 69 Anthony Garcia 428 8.2% 23.1% .146 .290 .238 .309 .384 .299 86 Jaff Decker 426 9.4% 24.6% .125 .282 .223 .299 .347 .282 74 Melvin Mercedes 343 8.5% 19.8% .052 .265 .210 .283 .262 .248 51 Frank Schwindel 540 2.4% 19.3% .154 .283 .252 .272 .406 .286 77 Sandber Pimentel 401 8.5% 32.4% .132 .297 .214 .287 .346 .277 71 Kenny Wilson 436 6.9% 27.1% .083 .286 .210 .274 .293 .252 53 Brett Vertigan 429 7.7% 25.4% .064 .286 .211 .275 .275 .246 49 J.P. Sportman 533 4.5% 25.9% .101 .276 .213 .252 .314 .246 49 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Matt Chapman 521 4.7 106 11 2.8 Gary Gaetti Khris Davis 586 6.3 131 -5 2.5 Dean Palmer Matt Olson 565 5.8 124 2 2.3 Mo Vaughn Marcus Semien 532 5.2 107 -4 2.1 Dan Uggla Jed Lowrie 521 4.6 98 -2 1.2 Vance Law Joey Wendle 563 4.0 84 6 1.1 Jose Nieves Bruce Maxwell 355 3.7 80 3 1.0 Carlos Maldonado Boog Powell 432 4.3 94 1 0.9 Curt Flood Ramon Laureano 521 4.0 85 9 0.9 Mike Daniel Sean Murphy 389 3.3 69 5 0.7 Kyle Phillips Dustin Fowler 460 4.6 99 -5 0.7 Ivan Calderon Dustin Garneau 307 3.6 81 1 0.6 Chad Moeller Matthew Joyce 431 5.0 109 -6 0.6 Mark Leonard Franklin Barreto 588 3.8 83 -3 0.6 Carlos Garcia Mark Canha 489 4.7 100 -3 0.5 Keith Williams Jake Smolinski 357 4.3 94 -2 0.5 Brad Correll Jorge Mateo 577 3.8 78 -1 0.5 Mariano Duncan Nick Martini 489 3.9 83 6 0.4 Jorge Cortes Yairo Munoz 488 3.8 79 -2 0.4 Oscar Salazar Josh Phegley 242 3.7 82 -1 0.4 Scott Servais Chris Carter 460 4.7 106 -3 0.3 Ty Van Burkleo Beau Taylor 308 3.0 67 2 0.3 Ray Stephens Chad Pinder 463 3.9 87 -6 0.3 Les Pearsey Jermaine Curtis 314 3.6 79 -1 0.2 Rico Rossy Sheldon Neuse 489 3.6 78 1 0.2 George Hinshaw Max Schrock 529 3.7 77 0 0.1 Edwin Aponte Richie Martin 452 3.0 64 4 0.1 Jason Bowers Matt McBride 297 3.9 86 -8 -0.1 Randy Knorr B.J. Boyd 577 3.4 70 4 -0.1 Clay Timpner Renato Nunez 538 4.8 104 -11 -0.1 Mike Hessman Ryan Lavarnway 312 3.2 72 -5 -0.1 Dave Toth Anthony Garcia 428 4.2 91 -4 -0.3 Mike Edwards Jaff Decker 426 3.7 79 -6 -0.4 Scott Bikowski Melvin Mercedes 343 2.5 53 2 -0.6 Luis Lorenzana Frank Schwindel 540 3.9 84 0 -0.7 Reggie Montgomery Sandber Pimentel 401 3.4 75 1 -0.8 Danny Lewis Kenny Wilson 436 2.7 58 -2 -1.1 Mike Murphy Brett Vertigan 429 2.7 53 4 -1.2 Buck McNabb J.P. Sportman 533 2.7 56 2 -1.9 Denis Phipps *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Sean Manaea L 26 29 28 154.7 135 50 18 153 78 73 Kendall Graveman R 27 23 23 129.0 82 38 15 140 68 64 Jharel Cotton R 26 26 26 144.0 134 52 22 144 79 74 Blake Treinen R 30 69 0 72.3 67 28 5 68 31 29 Andrew Triggs R 29 16 16 96.7 73 30 11 102 50 47 Paul Blackburn R 24 27 26 138.3 79 43 17 154 77 72 Daniel Mengden R 25 23 22 113.0 94 44 15 117 63 59 Liam Hendriks R 29 69 0 62.7 77 23 6 53 27 25 Jesse Hahn R 28 21 20 100.7 71 44 9 104 55 51 Daniel Gossett R 25 29 29 149.0 116 55 22 164 88 82 Yusmeiro Petit R 33 48 2 76.7 81 17 12 73 36 34 A.J. Puk L 23 25 25 126.3 107 54 19 130 74 69 Chris Bassitt R 29 22 12 73.0 57 31 7 74 39 36 Josh Smith R 30 37 11 102.3 84 38 13 107 56 52 Cesar Valdez R 33 21 16 98.7 61 20 13 113 56 52 Daniel Coulombe L 28 65 0 57.3 55 26 5 52 26 24 Simon Castro R 30 54 0 67.3 75 28 9 60 32 30 Emilio Pagan R 27 53 0 72.7 76 25 10 68 36 34 Ryan Dull R 28 56 0 55.3 59 17 8 50 27 25 Jake Sanchez R 28 45 0 53.3 50 18 6 52 26 24 Frankie Montas R 25 50 0 47.3 57 22 6 41 21 20 Lou Trivino R 26 51 0 65.0 49 32 5 64 33 31 Carlos Navas R 25 48 1 65.7 56 28 7 66 34 32 Santiago Casilla R 37 55 0 51.7 51 18 7 49 26 24 Corey Walter R 25 51 10 90.7 51 29 11 102 52 49 Felix Doubront L 30 24 10 67.7 58 31 9 71 40 37 Grant Holmes R 22 28 24 136.7 115 68 20 145 85 79 Michael Brady R 31 29 9 77.0 60 15 14 86 45 42 Chris Hatcher R 33 50 0 56.7 57 21 8 56 29 27 Logan Bawcom R 29 43 3 71.0 56 33 8 74 40 37 Zach Neal R 29 27 18 118.3 54 16 21 144 74 69 Heath Fillmyer R 24 28 27 133.3 88 55 21 149 85 79 John Axford R 35 44 0 41.3 41 24 4 39 21 20 Raul Alcantara R 25 29 18 94.0 57 26 16 107 59 55 Sam Moll L 26 57 0 61.0 47 24 7 66 33 31 Chris Smith R 37 24 18 106.0 79 41 18 113 66 62 Patrick Schuster L 27 48 0 53.0 45 25 6 53 29 27 Tucker Healy R 28 40 0 46.7 42 27 5 45 27 25 Jarret Martin L 28 41 1 41.0 43 37 2 35 24 22 Aaron Kurcz R 27 43 0 53.3 41 24 7 56 32 30 Bobby Wahl R 26 30 1 36.3 42 24 7 35 24 22 Casey Meisner R 23 28 23 118.7 76 61 17 133 79 74 Joel Seddon R 25 32 13 102.7 59 41 16 119 68 64 Sam Bragg R 25 44 0 65.0 49 23 11 71 41 38 Dalton Sawyer L 24 25 19 108.7 86 56 20 119 75 70 Dustin Hurlbutt R 25 23 16 99.0 67 46 19 112 70 65 Tyler Sturdevant R 32 42 0 53.7 39 21 10 61 36 34 Kyle Finnegan R 26 47 0 58.0 48 33 10 61 40 37 Brandon Mann L 34 35 4 63.3 56 37 12 68 45 42 Chris Jensen R 27 28 16 111.7 63 45 23 134 82 77 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Sean Manaea 154.7 667 20.2% 7.5% .295 4.25 4.01 99 93 Kendall Graveman 129.0 565 14.5% 6.7% .294 4.47 4.37 104 102 Jharel Cotton 144.0 628 21.3% 8.3% .295 4.62 4.47 108 104 Blake Treinen 72.3 313 21.4% 8.9% .299 3.61 3.28 84 76 Andrew Triggs 96.7 422 17.3% 7.1% .299 4.38 4.18 102 97 Paul Blackburn 138.3 612 12.9% 7.0% .293 4.68 4.68 109 108 Daniel Mengden 113.0 500 18.8% 8.8% .298 4.70 4.52 109 105 Liam Hendriks 62.7 264 29.2% 8.7% .297 3.59 3.05 84 71 Jesse Hahn 100.7 450 15.8% 9.8% .296 4.56 4.34 106 101 Daniel Gossett 149.0 666 17.4% 8.3% .305 4.95 4.75 115 110 Yusmeiro Petit 76.7 320 25.3% 5.3% .292 3.99 3.67 93 85 A.J. Puk 126.3 563 19.0% 9.6% .296 4.92 4.84 114 112 Chris Bassitt 73.0 324 17.6% 9.6% .299 4.44 4.32 103 100 Josh Smith 102.3 452 18.6% 8.4% .301 4.57 4.37 107 101 Cesar Valdez 98.7 429 14.2% 4.7% .303 4.74 4.36 110 101 Daniel Coulombe 57.3 250 22.0% 10.4% .290 3.77 3.73 88 87 Simon Castro 67.3 290 25.9% 9.7% .293 4.01 4.05 93 94 Emilio Pagan 72.7 311 24.4% 8.0% .294 4.21 4.01 98 93 Ryan Dull 55.3 233 25.3% 7.3% .286 4.07 3.77 95 88 Jake Sanchez 53.3 230 21.7% 7.8% .301 4.05 3.87 94 90 Frankie Montas 47.3 205 27.8% 10.7% .299 3.80 3.98 89 92 Lou Trivino 65.0 291 16.8% 11.0% .294 4.29 4.22 100 98 Carlos Navas 65.7 291 19.2% 9.6% .301 4.39 4.21 102 98 Santiago Casilla 51.7 222 23.0% 8.1% .298 4.18 4.22 97 98 Corey Walter 90.7 403 12.7% 7.2% .297 4.86 4.73 113 110 Felix Doubront 67.7 305 19.0% 10.2% .302 4.92 4.59 115 107 Grant Holmes 136.7 623 18.5% 10.9% .303 5.20 5.02 121 117 Michael Brady 77.0 332 18.1% 4.5% .303 4.91 4.66 114 108 Chris Hatcher 56.7 247 23.1% 8.5% .300 4.29 4.04 100 94 Logan Bawcom 71.0 320 17.5% 10.3% .301 4.69 4.61 109 107 Zach Neal 118.3 515 10.5% 3.1% .294 5.25 5.08 122 118 Heath Fillmyer 133.3 604 14.6% 9.1% .296 5.33 5.30 124 123 John Axford 41.3 187 21.9% 12.8% .302 4.35 4.25 101 99 Raul Alcantara 94.0 415 13.7% 6.3% .294 5.27 5.18 123 120 Sam Moll 61.0 273 17.2% 8.8% .307 4.57 4.44 107 103 Chris Smith 106.0 472 16.7% 8.7% .289 5.26 5.15 123 119 Patrick Schuster 53.0 237 19.0% 10.5% .297 4.58 4.52 107 105 Tucker Healy 46.7 212 19.8% 12.7% .294 4.82 4.49 112 104 Jarret Martin 41.0 195 22.1% 19.0% .297 4.83 4.47 112 104 Aaron Kurcz 53.3 240 17.1% 10.0% .297 5.06 4.85 118 112 Bobby Wahl 36.3 168 25.0% 14.3% .301 5.45 5.41 127 126 Casey Meisner 118.7 550 13.8% 11.1% .298 5.61 5.43 131 126 Joel Seddon 102.7 468 12.6% 8.8% .298 5.61 5.35 131 124 Sam Bragg 65.0 289 17.0% 8.0% .297 5.26 5.05 123 117 Dalton Sawyer 108.7 501 17.2% 11.2% .297 5.80 5.68 135 132 Dustin Hurlbutt 99.0 455 14.7% 10.1% .293 5.91 5.84 138 136 Tyler Sturdevant 53.7 243 16.0% 8.6% .300 5.70 5.36 133 124 Kyle Finnegan 58.0 268 17.9% 12.3% .293 5.74 5.55 134 129 Brandon Mann 63.3 295 19.0% 12.5% .299 5.97 5.70 139 132 Chris Jensen 111.7 514 12.3% 8.8% .294 6.21 6.08 145 141 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Sean Manaea 154.7 7.86 2.91 1.05 100 2.3 Mark Thurmond Kendall Graveman 129.0 5.72 2.65 1.05 95 1.6 Dave Frost Jharel Cotton 144.0 8.38 3.25 1.38 90 1.4 Andy McGaffigan Blake Treinen 72.3 8.34 3.48 0.62 116 1.3 Saul Rivera Andrew Triggs 96.7 6.80 2.79 1.02 97 1.3 Dave Eiland Paul Blackburn 138.3 5.14 2.80 1.11 89 1.3 Wally Bunker Daniel Mengden 113.0 7.49 3.50 1.19 90 1.1 Randy Hennis Liam Hendriks 62.7 11.06 3.30 0.86 118 1.1 Frank LaCorte Jesse Hahn 100.7 6.35 3.93 0.80 92 1.1 Don Schwall Daniel Gossett 149.0 7.01 3.32 1.33 86 1.1 Brian Moehler Yusmeiro Petit 76.7 9.51 2.00 1.41 105 1.0 Bob Wells A.J. Puk 126.3 7.62 3.85 1.35 86 0.9 Jon Lester Chris Bassitt 73.0 7.03 3.82 0.86 96 0.9 Jim McDonald Josh Smith 102.3 7.39 3.34 1.14 91 0.9 Julian Tavarez Cesar Valdez 98.7 5.56 1.82 1.19 88 0.8 Frank Hiller Daniel Coulombe 57.3 8.63 4.08 0.78 111 0.7 Randy Choate Simon Castro 67.3 10.02 3.74 1.20 104 0.7 Ryan Dempster Emilio Pagan 72.7 9.41 3.10 1.24 101 0.7 Paul Byrd Ryan Dull 55.3 9.60 2.77 1.30 104 0.6 Cris Carpenter Jake Sanchez 53.3 8.44 3.04 1.01 105 0.6 Mark Lee Frankie Montas 47.3 10.84 4.18 1.14 112 0.6 Ryan Bukvich Lou Trivino 65.0 6.78 4.43 0.69 99 0.5 Hal Reniff Carlos Navas 65.7 7.68 3.84 0.96 97 0.5 Jim Winn Santiago Casilla 51.7 8.88 3.14 1.22 100 0.5 Matt Herges Corey Walter 90.7 5.06 2.88 1.09 87 0.5 Todd Williams Felix Doubront 67.7 7.71 4.12 1.20 86 0.4 Brian O’Connor Grant Holmes 136.7 7.57 4.48 1.32 80 0.4 Brett Laxton Michael Brady 77.0 7.01 1.75 1.64 86 0.4 Matt Ginter Chris Hatcher 56.7 9.05 3.34 1.27 98 0.4 Jim Mecir Logan Bawcom 71.0 7.10 4.18 1.01 90 0.4 Tony Fiore Zach Neal 118.3 4.11 1.22 1.60 81 0.4 Matt Ginter Heath Fillmyer 133.3 5.94 3.71 1.42 80 0.3 Frank Castillo John Axford 41.3 8.93 5.23 0.87 97 0.3 Ryne Duren Raul Alcantara 94.0 5.46 2.49 1.53 81 0.3 Chuck Porter Sam Moll 61.0 6.93 3.54 1.03 91 0.2 Tanyon Sturtze Chris Smith 106.0 6.71 3.48 1.53 79 0.2 Bob Forsch Patrick Schuster 53.0 7.64 4.25 1.02 91 0.2 Philip Barzilla Tucker Healy 46.7 8.10 5.21 0.96 88 0.1 Marc Pisciotta Jarret Martin 41.0 9.44 8.12 0.44 87 0.1 Mike Kinnunen Aaron Kurcz 53.3 6.92 4.05 1.18 84 -0.1 Jimmy Myers Bobby Wahl 36.3 10.40 5.94 1.73 78 -0.2 Henry Owens Casey Meisner 118.7 5.76 4.63 1.29 75 -0.2 Ken Pumphrey Joel Seddon 102.7 5.17 3.59 1.40 76 -0.2 Bill Champion Sam Bragg 65.0 6.78 3.18 1.52 81 -0.2 Randy McCament Dalton Sawyer 108.7 7.12 4.64 1.66 73 -0.3 Ryan Jacobs Dustin Hurlbutt 99.0 6.09 4.18 1.73 72 -0.4 Ken Klump Tyler Sturdevant 53.7 6.54 3.52 1.68 74 -0.5 Mike Sullivan Kyle Finnegan 58.0 7.45 5.12 1.55 74 -0.5 Jack Lazorko Brandon Mann 63.3 7.96 5.26 1.71 71 -0.6 Kevin Hickey Chris Jensen 111.7 5.08 3.63 1.85 68 -0.9 Pete Blohm *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR. We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Oakland A’s by Carson Cistulli! Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. 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