2018 ZiPS Projections – Oakland A’s

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland A’s. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
It’s inaccurate to say that ZiPS is “pessimistic” about the Oakland A’s. It’s inaccurate not because the ZiPS projections for Oakland are particularly good, but rather because ZiPS is incapable of of pessimism. It’s the unfeeling product of a proprietary algorithm applied to historical data, not a sentient being.

It would be entirely reasonable, on the other hand, to declare that a human person is pessimistic about the Oakland A’s after examining the ZiPS projections. Indeed, a brief inspection of the numbers here suggests that it’s one of the few logical conclusions to be drawn.

The depth-chart image below reveals five positions — catcher, second base, left field, center field, and right field — at which Oakland receives a rounded WAR projection of 1.0. Of course, the precise arrangement of certain players is subject to change. While Matt Joyce (431 PA, 0.6 zWAR) is more or less established in right field, for example, the roles of Mark Canha (489, 0.5), Dustin Fowler (460, 0.7), and Chad Pinder (463, 0.3) are all somewhat mutable. However they’re deployed, though, none of them appear particularly well suited to more than a bench role for now.

In a more promising development, two of the organization’s top young players from 2017, Matt Chapman (521, 2.8) and Matt Olson (565, 2.3), receive promising forecasts. The might very well represent a core around which the club can build.

Pitchers
Oakland pitchers combined for 10.3 WAR in 2017. Right-hander Sonny Gray accounted for more than 20% of that even though he recorded less than 7% of the club’s total innings — a feat he’s unlikely to match in 2018, on account of he’s now employed by the Yankees.

Unsurprisingly, the projections for Oakland’s remaining pitchers are rather modest. Left-hander Sean Manaea (154.2 IP, 2.3 zWAR) represents the only one, in fact, to receive a forecast of two wins or better. That’s not to say there’s no hint of promise. ZiPS calls for Jharel Cotton (144.0, 1.4), Kendall Graveman (129.0, 1.6), Jesse Hahn (100.2, 1.1), Daniel Mengden (113.0, 1.1), and Andrew Triggs (96.2, 1.3) all to produce wins at an average-or-better rate. Almost every one of them, however, is projected for something less than a full complement of innings.

As for the bullpen, one actually finds a pretty strong unit. Blake Treinen (72.1 IP, 84 ERA-, 1.3 zWAR) is expected to close, but Liam Hendriks (62.2, 84, 1.1) and Yusmeiro Petit (76.2, 93, 1.0) look well equipped to handle high-leverage innings, as well.

Bench/Prospects
Joey Wendle (563 PA, 1.1 zWAR) is the recipient of the top ZiPS projection among players not included in the depth-chart image below. He was also designated for assignment literally 22 hours ago. The forecasts suggest he could be of some use at second base; clearly, the A’s don’t totally agree. Outfielder Ramon Laureano (521, 0.9), acquired in a trade with Houston in November, earns the top projection of Oakland’s rookie-eligible field players.

Right-hander Paul Blackburn (138.1 IP, 1.3 zWAR) failed to recorded a strikeout rate greater than 10% in roughly 60 innings with Oakland this past season. He throws strikes, though, and limits damage on contact. He earns the top projection among the pitchers excluded from the depth chart. Among relievers, Daniel Coulombe (57.1, 88, 0.7) receives that distinction.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Athletics, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Oakland A’s by Carson Cistulli!

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