2017 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers by Carson Cistulli January 11, 2017 After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington. Batters Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (675 PA, 5.4 zWAR) won the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award with ease in 2016. Were a similar award to exist for second-year players, Seager would be the favorite to win that, as well. ZiPS calls for Seager to record less gaudy BABIP and fielding numbers in 2017, but that’s to be expected. At the most basic level, a projection system is a regression machine. BABIP and fielding runs require large samples before they begin to represent true talent. As a second-year player, Seager lacks that kind of sample by definition. Here’s some other news, though: ZiPS also projects a nearly three-point improvement in Seager’s strikeout rate, from 19.4% this past season to 16.7% in 2017. This does not appear to be a product of regression to the mean. It can’t really: the lowest strikeout rate National League batters have produced over the last three seasons is 19.9%. Szymborski’s computer, in other words, appears to be calling for actual improvement. Or perhaps a different sort of regression — regression to Seager’s 2015 numbers, when he made more contact in the minors and (for a brief stretch) majors. In any case, two propositions are true: both (a) Corey Seager is very good and (b) this section, which is intended to provide a brief overview of all the club’s starting field players, has failed to do that. Pitchers The only thing wrong with Clayton Kershaw’s (177.0 IP, 5.9 zWAR) 2016 campaign was there wasn’t enough of it. After averaging 222 innings per season between 2013 and -15, Kershaw recorded only two-thirds of that total this past year. Prorated to 222 innings, Kershaw’s ZiPS projection comes to about 7.5 wins. He understandably receives a more modest innings projection than usual, however. Here’s who else receives a modest innings projection among Dodgers pitchers: almost all of them. Rich Hill (95.0, 2.0), Brandon McCarthy (88.0, 0.8), and Hyun-Jin Ryu (90.1, 1.0) all earn promising per-inning forecasts. None of that triumvirate is projected to record more than 100 innings, though. Julio Urias (136.1, 2.2), meanwhile, is already expected to produce an above-average season as a 20-year-old. The back end of the Dodgers bullpen remains a source of strength for the club — in part, certainly, due to the return of Kenley Jansen (62.0, 1.5). He and Grant Dayton (68.0, 1.0) represent one of the top relief duos outside of Chicago and Cleveland. Bench/Prospects Even as Los Angeles has possessed the means to sign the league’s most expensive free agents, they’ve made a priority of acquiring depth. That’s reflected in the projections. Consider: both Austin Barnes (441 PA, 2.2 zWAR) and Chris Taylor (492, 2.1) profile as league-average players, and yet neither appears to have a path to a starting role. Not at the beginning of 2017, at least. Meanwhile, rookie-eligible prospects Cody Bellinger (514, 1.7), Willie Calhoun (505, 1.4), and Alex Verdugo (570, 1.4) all profile as very strong bench players already. As noted above, the Dodgers feature a number of fragile starters who, if healthy, could be of some benefit to the club. They also employ some young starters who, if called upon, could do the same. Neither Jose De Leon (111.0, 1.5) nor Alex Wood (123.1, 1.1) appear to have a certain role for 2017, but both are assets. Right-hander Trevor Oaks (138.1, 0.8) likely only has a future as an “up-and-down arm” according to Eric Longenhagen, but it appears as though that future is now. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Corey Seager L 23 SS 675 89 174 41 5 22 99 5 1 Justin Turner R 32 3B 461 56 115 27 2 15 64 4 1 Joc Pederson L 25 CF 540 69 104 21 1 24 68 10 5 Yasmani Grandal B 28 C 406 46 79 15 1 19 62 1 1 Yasiel Puig R 26 RF 541 70 134 25 5 19 74 7 6 Austin Barnes R 27 C 441 50 97 19 3 9 45 9 2 Adrian Gonzalez L 35 1B 577 66 140 28 0 21 94 0 1 Chris Taylor R 26 SS 492 58 114 25 6 5 44 14 5 Trayce Thompson R 26 CF 442 53 92 21 4 17 54 8 3 Cody Bellinger L 21 1B 514 69 107 20 2 26 78 6 2 Rob Segedin R 28 3B 408 51 91 18 4 15 56 2 2 Andrew Toles L 25 CF 425 47 104 24 5 6 43 21 10 Willie Calhoun L 22 2B 505 62 121 25 1 17 66 0 0 Alex Verdugo L 21 CF 570 64 139 27 2 15 67 6 6 Chase Utley L 38 2B 457 56 97 21 3 10 46 2 1 Scott Van Slyke R 30 LF 221 23 49 11 0 7 25 3 2 Zach Walters B 27 1B 447 49 97 23 4 21 62 1 1 Tim Locastro R 24 2B 562 63 129 22 4 7 50 20 9 Edwin Rios L 23 3B 482 61 112 23 3 16 78 2 1 Johan Mieses R 21 CF 490 56 96 25 3 17 67 5 7 Kiké Hernandez R 25 2B 370 40 80 15 2 9 34 3 2 O’Koyea Dickson R 27 LF 445 55 104 25 2 17 62 2 3 Kyle Farmer R 26 C 368 36 77 21 3 4 37 3 2 Andre Ethier L 35 LF 257 25 59 12 3 5 30 1 1 Jack Murphy B 29 C 248 21 47 9 0 3 19 0 0 Charlie Culberson R 28 SS 262 23 55 12 2 5 26 4 3 Corey Brown L 31 CF 422 48 82 17 3 17 55 7 3 Brandon Hicks R 31 SS 290 28 48 10 1 8 27 3 2 Tyler Holt?!? R 28 CF 376 37 78 12 3 1 23 13 4 Drew Maggi R 28 SS 400 38 80 15 1 3 27 15 9 Carl Crawford L 35 LF 222 28 54 9 3 4 26 7 3 Darin Ruf R 30 1B 404 49 88 17 1 17 56 1 1 Bobby Wilson R 34 C 235 20 47 7 0 4 25 0 1 Lars Anderson L 29 1B 355 36 72 18 0 7 36 2 1 Micah Johnson L 26 2B 516 55 113 20 4 7 43 21 10 Yusniel Diaz R 20 CF 414 44 88 10 6 11 50 5 10 Rico Noel R 28 CF 241 23 46 8 2 0 15 18 6 Will Venable L 34 CF 366 41 77 13 2 8 37 8 3 Darnell Sweeney B 26 2B 536 55 107 22 5 11 52 14 11 Alex Hassan R 29 LF 357 34 76 15 1 3 27 1 0 Matt Beaty L 24 1B 477 49 109 21 1 8 48 3 2 Henry Ramos B 25 RF 336 28 72 13 3 6 28 4 4 Jacob Scavuzzo R 23 LF 492 55 110 23 3 12 51 4 4 Erick Mejia B 22 SS 458 44 98 13 6 3 34 15 9 Stetson Allie R 26 RF 450 48 78 17 1 17 51 3 3 Josmar Cordero R 25 1B 320 30 68 15 1 6 31 4 2 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Corey Seager 675 6.2% 16.7% .188 .308 .280 .327 .468 .338 Justin Turner 461 7.6% 17.4% .184 .310 .278 .343 .462 .346 Joc Pederson 540 13.9% 29.8% .208 .293 .228 .342 .436 .340 Yasmani Grandal 406 14.0% 25.9% .215 .269 .230 .340 .445 .340 Yasiel Puig 541 8.1% 20.9% .189 .322 .275 .344 .464 .352 Austin Barnes 441 8.4% 16.8% .131 .278 .244 .314 .375 .307 Adrian Gonzalez 577 8.5% 18.0% .175 .298 .270 .333 .445 .326 Chris Taylor 492 7.1% 21.3% .116 .319 .253 .310 .369 .304 Trayce Thompson 442 6.8% 27.8% .197 .279 .226 .281 .423 .307 Cody Bellinger 514 8.9% 30.5% .220 .286 .232 .302 .452 .323 Rob Segedin 408 6.9% 23.3% .192 .289 .247 .309 .439 .323 Andrew Toles 425 3.8% 22.1% .129 .322 .259 .292 .388 .310 Willie Calhoun 505 6.1% 14.9% .167 .275 .260 .308 .427 .313 Alex Verdugo 570 5.1% 16.5% .142 .289 .260 .300 .402 .305 Chase Utley 457 6.6% 19.3% .138 .273 .234 .298 .372 .291 Scott Van Slyke 221 8.6% 24.9% .163 .309 .250 .326 .413 .325 Zach Walters 447 4.7% 28.6% .224 .278 .232 .271 .456 .306 Tim Locastro 562 3.7% 15.1% .100 .286 .250 .305 .350 .301 Edwin Rios 482 3.9% 29.9% .168 .321 .246 .280 .414 .297 Johan Mieses 490 5.1% 33.9% .180 .287 .211 .260 .391 .285 Kiké Hernandez 370 7.3% 20.0% .136 .276 .237 .295 .373 .292 O’Koyea Dickson 445 4.9% 19.1% .195 .278 .254 .300 .449 .320 Kyle Farmer 368 4.6% 19.3% .113 .268 .224 .266 .337 .264 Andre Ethier 257 8.6% 18.3% .143 .300 .257 .327 .400 .311 Jack Murphy 248 8.1% 25.8% .080 .277 .209 .272 .289 .249 Charlie Culberson 262 3.8% 25.6% .125 .282 .222 .257 .347 .265 Corey Brown 422 5.9% 36.0% .188 .288 .209 .257 .397 .283 Brandon Hicks 290 8.3% 39.0% .138 .286 .184 .260 .322 .259 Tyler Holt?!? 376 8.2% 21.5% .063 .301 .232 .299 .295 .274 Drew Maggi 400 6.0% 21.8% .072 .281 .220 .281 .292 .269 Carl Crawford 222 4.5% 15.8% .129 .292 .260 .297 .389 .308 Darin Ruf 404 5.9% 24.3% .190 .274 .238 .292 .428 .308 Bobby Wilson 235 5.5% 23.4% .088 .272 .219 .264 .307 .249 Lars Anderson 355 9.6% 22.8% .123 .280 .226 .301 .349 .286 Micah Johnson 516 5.6% 21.9% .103 .296 .237 .283 .340 .285 Yusniel Diaz 414 6.0% 26.1% .143 .286 .227 .275 .370 .291 Rico Noel 241 6.2% 26.6% .055 .299 .212 .274 .267 .263 Will Venable 366 6.8% 23.5% .122 .285 .230 .288 .352 .281 Darnell Sweeney 536 7.1% 28.0% .133 .290 .219 .276 .352 .284 Alex Hassan 357 7.8% 23.5% .080 .304 .235 .297 .315 .272 Matt Beaty 477 5.2% 17.0% .106 .281 .245 .288 .351 .279 Henry Ramos 336 5.1% 22.6% .120 .286 .232 .274 .352 .273 Jacob Scavuzzo 492 4.7% 25.4% .141 .301 .239 .283 .380 .291 Erick Mejia 458 5.2% 23.1% .080 .296 .228 .270 .308 .267 Stetson Allie 450 8.2% 39.1% .172 .282 .193 .263 .365 .275 Josmar Cordero 320 3.4% 25.9% .116 .290 .225 .263 .341 .267 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Corey Seager 675 5.8 121 1 5.4 Cal Ripken Justin Turner 461 6.0 124 4 3.8 Joe Torre Joc Pederson 540 5.2 118 0 3.5 Adam Dunn Yasmani Grandal 406 5.3 119 -1 3.3 Mickey Tettleton Yasiel Puig 541 5.8 125 3 3.2 Ron Swoboda Austin Barnes 441 4.3 93 -2 2.2 Al Lopez Adrian Gonzalez 577 5.4 117 4 2.1 Pedro Guerrero Chris Taylor 492 4.2 91 2 2.1 Antonio Perez Trayce Thompson 442 4.2 95 3 1.9 Rickey Cradle Cody Bellinger 514 4.8 109 4 1.7 John Jaha Rob Segedin 408 4.8 108 -3 1.7 Bob Bailey Andrew Toles 425 4.2 90 3 1.5 Steve Carter Willie Calhoun 505 4.8 104 -8 1.4 Taylor Green Alex Verdugo 570 4.3 96 -3 1.4 Andre Ethier Chase Utley 457 3.9 88 0 1.1 Ray Durham Scott Van Slyke 221 4.8 107 2 0.9 Benny Agbayani Zach Walters 447 4.3 100 3 0.8 Chad Rupp Tim Locastro 562 3.9 84 -4 0.8 Damion Easley Edwin Rios 482 4.2 93 -6 0.7 Roy Howell Johan Mieses 490 3.3 80 1 0.6 Steve Gibralter Kiké Hernandez 370 3.9 87 -3 0.5 Enrico Washington O’Koyea Dickson 445 4.8 107 -7 0.5 Mike Cervenak Kyle Farmer 368 3.1 69 -2 0.4 Brian Peterson Andre Ethier 257 4.7 104 -2 0.4 Tommy McCraw Jack Murphy 248 2.7 59 2 0.4 Joe Hietpas Charlie Culberson 262 3.0 68 2 0.3 Frank Kremblas Corey Brown 422 3.5 81 -3 0.3 Ruben Rivera Brandon Hicks 290 2.7 63 2 0.2 Sean Mcnally Tyler Holt?!? 376 3.3 69 0 0.2 Jamal Strong Drew Maggi 400 2.8 62 1 0.1 Drew Meyer Carl Crawford 222 4.3 92 -1 0.1 Milt Thompson Darin Ruf 404 4.4 100 -3 0.1 Julio Zuleta Bobby Wilson 235 2.7 61 0 0.1 Frank Charles Lars Anderson 355 3.7 83 3 0.1 Ray Giannelli Micah Johnson 516 3.4 75 -3 0.1 Tommy Shields Yusniel Diaz 414 3.2 80 -2 0.1 Jackson Melian Rico Noel 241 2.8 54 2 -0.1 Damon Mashore Will Venable 366 3.6 80 -7 -0.3 Jalal Leach Darnell Sweeney 536 3.2 76 -6 -0.3 Manuel Francois Alex Hassan 357 3.3 73 0 -0.3 Russ Morman Matt Beaty 477 3.6 79 3 -0.4 Mike Ashman Henry Ramos 336 3.3 72 0 -0.5 Layne Lambert Jacob Scavuzzo 492 3.7 85 -6 -0.6 Mike Diaz Erick Mejia 458 2.8 63 -6 -0.7 John Stevenson Stetson Allie 450 3.1 75 -2 -0.7 Danny Peoples Josmar Cordero 320 3.1 69 0 -0.9 Brett Hayes *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Clayton Kershaw L 29 26 26 177.0 219 27 15 134 48 45 Kenta Maeda R 29 29 29 177.7 170 45 19 162 73 68 Julio Urias L 20 24 24 136.3 135 44 14 126 58 54 Rich Hill L 37 17 17 95.0 104 35 10 78 36 34 Scott Kazmir L 33 25 25 142.7 133 44 19 134 67 63 Kenley Jansen R 29 65 0 62.0 95 13 6 41 16 15 Jose De Leon R 24 22 22 111.0 133 31 18 97 50 47 Alex Wood L 26 24 20 123.3 104 37 15 121 60 56 Hyun-Jin Ryu L 30 17 17 90.3 73 20 10 92 43 40 Grant Dayton L 29 53 0 68.0 90 19 8 53 24 22 Brandon McCarthy R 33 15 15 88.0 63 21 12 92 43 40 Trevor Oaks R 24 24 24 138.3 87 25 18 149 72 67 Joe Blanton R 36 56 0 70.0 73 20 8 60 27 25 Adam Liberatore L 30 58 0 50.7 57 17 5 42 20 19 Brock Stewart R 25 25 18 105.0 96 30 17 105 56 52 Pedro Baez R 29 64 0 64.0 69 18 8 55 27 25 Chris Hatcher R 32 57 0 52.3 57 15 6 46 21 20 Josh Fields R 31 58 0 59.0 72 20 5 50 25 23 Carlos Frias R 27 22 14 91.7 63 24 10 95 48 45 Brett Anderson L 29 15 14 79.0 53 21 10 85 42 39 Chase De Jong R 23 25 25 132.3 116 44 21 131 73 68 Josh Sborz R 23 27 20 116.3 99 40 18 117 63 59 J.P. Howell L 34 60 0 45.0 39 16 4 43 19 18 Vidal Nuno L 29 63 0 71.7 66 17 11 69 32 30 Luis Avilan L 27 66 0 61.3 57 21 8 57 28 26 Ross Stripling R 27 23 18 101.7 77 32 14 105 57 53 Yimi Garcia R 26 42 0 45.7 49 11 8 42 21 20 Joe Broussard R 26 40 1 68.0 59 20 9 67 33 31 Bud Norris R 32 28 21 126.3 106 43 19 128 72 67 Jacob Rhame R 24 53 0 61.0 68 24 8 54 30 28 Josh Ravin R 29 23 0 26.0 32 12 5 22 14 13 Alfredo Figaro R 32 22 11 76.0 48 25 11 83 44 41 Chin-hui Tsao R 36 24 0 27.3 26 10 4 27 15 14 Brandon Beachy R 30 6 6 24.0 17 12 4 25 16 15 Steve Geltz R 29 57 0 59.0 61 25 10 52 31 29 Ralston Cash R 25 46 0 60.7 64 34 8 55 32 30 Edward Paredes L 30 46 0 38.7 38 25 5 36 22 21 Wilmer Font R 27 26 5 50.3 41 19 8 52 31 29 Sam LeCure R 33 43 5 72.3 55 25 11 75 42 39 Madison Younginer R 26 46 0 66.3 54 29 8 66 36 34 Patrick Schuster L 26 54 0 52.0 44 27 5 50 30 28 Gus Schlosser R 28 30 5 61.7 44 25 10 66 39 36 Fabio Castillo R 28 34 13 104.0 79 51 16 109 67 63 Alex Burgos L 26 29 1 48.0 35 29 9 53 34 32 Andrew Thurman R 25 23 18 87.3 63 52 24 104 77 72 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Clayton Kershaw 177.0 692 31.6% 3.9% .278 2.29 2.31 58 56 Kenta Maeda 177.7 740 23.0% 6.1% .288 3.44 3.52 87 86 Julio Urias 136.3 579 23.3% 7.6% .295 3.56 3.64 90 89 Rich Hill 95.0 398 26.1% 8.8% .280 3.22 3.66 81 90 Scott Kazmir 142.7 606 21.9% 7.3% .285 3.97 4.08 100 100 Kenley Jansen 62.0 240 39.6% 5.4% .280 2.18 1.96 55 48 Jose De Leon 111.0 461 28.9% 6.7% .290 3.81 3.90 96 95 Alex Wood 123.3 528 19.7% 7.0% .288 4.09 4.03 103 99 Hyun-Jin Ryu 90.3 383 19.1% 5.2% .295 3.99 3.67 101 90 Grant Dayton 68.0 276 32.6% 6.9% .290 2.91 3.00 73 73 Brandon McCarthy 88.0 377 16.7% 5.6% .290 4.09 4.38 103 107 Trevor Oaks 138.3 589 14.8% 4.2% .290 4.36 4.31 110 106 Joe Blanton 70.0 290 25.2% 6.9% .278 3.21 3.36 81 82 Adam Liberatore 50.7 211 27.0% 8.1% .284 3.37 3.17 85 77 Brock Stewart 105.0 450 21.3% 6.7% .291 4.46 4.46 113 109 Pedro Baez 64.0 265 26.0% 6.8% .280 3.52 3.55 89 87 Chris Hatcher 52.3 218 26.2% 6.9% .290 3.44 3.36 87 82 Josh Fields 59.0 247 29.1% 8.1% .304 3.51 2.86 89 70 Carlos Frias 91.7 394 16.0% 6.1% .290 4.42 4.11 112 101 Brett Anderson 79.0 343 15.5% 6.1% .291 4.44 4.29 112 105 Chase De Jong 132.3 572 20.3% 7.7% .287 4.62 4.65 117 114 Josh Sborz 116.3 506 19.6% 7.9% .290 4.56 4.71 115 115 J.P. Howell 45.0 194 20.1% 8.2% .293 3.60 3.74 91 92 Vidal Nuno 71.7 301 21.9% 5.6% .284 3.77 4.14 95 101 Luis Avilan 61.3 262 21.8% 8.0% .283 3.82 3.95 96 97 Ross Stripling 101.7 442 17.4% 7.2% .289 4.69 4.46 118 109 Yimi Garcia 45.7 190 25.8% 5.8% .283 3.94 4.17 99 102 Joe Broussard 68.0 291 20.3% 6.9% .291 4.10 4.19 103 102 Bud Norris 126.3 550 19.3% 7.8% .292 4.77 4.60 120 113 Jacob Rhame 61.0 261 26.1% 9.2% .291 4.13 3.89 104 95 Josh Ravin 26.0 112 28.6% 10.7% .274 4.50 4.73 114 116 Alfredo Figaro 76.0 336 14.3% 7.4% .290 4.86 4.95 123 121 Chin-hui Tsao 27.3 119 21.9% 8.4% .295 4.61 4.29 116 105 Brandon Beachy 24.0 109 15.6% 11.0% .280 5.62 5.44 142 133 Steve Geltz 59.0 254 24.0% 9.8% .271 4.42 4.70 112 115 Ralston Cash 60.7 271 23.6% 12.5% .290 4.45 4.57 112 112 Edward Paredes 38.7 177 21.5% 14.1% .289 4.89 5.00 123 122 Wilmer Font 50.3 222 18.5% 8.6% .292 5.19 4.94 131 121 Sam LeCure 72.3 317 17.4% 7.9% .287 4.85 4.76 122 117 Madison Younginer 66.3 294 18.4% 9.9% .292 4.61 4.62 116 113 Patrick Schuster 52.0 233 18.9% 11.6% .292 4.85 4.42 122 108 Gus Schlosser 61.7 276 15.9% 9.1% .289 5.25 5.23 132 128 Fabio Castillo 104.0 472 16.7% 10.8% .291 5.45 5.28 138 129 Alex Burgos 48.0 226 15.5% 12.8% .293 6.00 6.10 151 149 Andrew Thurman 87.3 418 15.1% 12.4% .293 7.42 7.28 187 178 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Clayton Kershaw 177.0 11.14 1.37 0.76 166 5.9 Sandy Koufax Kenta Maeda 177.7 8.61 2.28 0.96 110 3.2 Brad Penny Julio Urias 136.3 8.91 2.91 0.92 106 2.2 Danny Jackson Rich Hill 95.0 9.85 3.32 0.95 118 2.0 Chuck Finley Scott Kazmir 142.7 8.39 2.78 1.20 95 1.6 Kenny Rogers Kenley Jansen 62.0 13.79 1.89 0.87 174 1.5 John Wetteland Jose De Leon 111.0 10.78 2.51 1.46 99 1.5 Melido Perez Alex Wood 123.3 7.59 2.70 1.09 93 1.1 Dave Otto Hyun-Jin Ryu 90.3 7.28 1.99 1.00 95 1.0 Odalis Perez Grant Dayton 68.0 11.91 2.51 1.06 130 1.0 Arthur Rhodes Brandon McCarthy 88.0 6.44 2.15 1.23 93 0.8 Jason Johnson Trevor Oaks 138.3 5.66 1.63 1.17 87 0.8 Dave Geeve Joe Blanton 70.0 9.39 2.57 1.03 118 0.7 Salomon Torres Adam Liberatore 50.7 10.12 3.02 0.89 112 0.4 Mike Munoz Brock Stewart 105.0 8.23 2.57 1.46 85 0.4 Julio Valera Pedro Baez 64.0 9.70 2.53 1.13 108 0.4 Joel Peralta Chris Hatcher 52.3 9.81 2.58 1.03 110 0.4 Cliff Politte Josh Fields 59.0 10.98 3.05 0.76 108 0.4 Mike MacDougal Carlos Frias 91.7 6.18 2.36 0.98 86 0.4 Ray Bare Brett Anderson 79.0 6.04 2.39 1.14 85 0.4 Wade Blasingame Chase De Jong 132.3 7.89 2.99 1.43 82 0.3 Dan Smith Josh Sborz 116.3 7.66 3.10 1.39 83 0.3 Greg McMichael J.P. Howell 45.0 7.80 3.20 0.80 105 0.2 Ray King Vidal Nuno 71.7 8.28 2.13 1.38 101 0.2 Erasmo Ramirez Luis Avilan 61.3 8.37 3.08 1.17 99 0.1 Ray Beasley Ross Stripling 101.7 6.81 2.83 1.24 81 0.1 Brian Allard Yimi Garcia 45.7 9.65 2.17 1.58 96 0.0 Kevin Crafton Joe Broussard 68.0 7.81 2.65 1.19 92 0.0 Don Stanford Bud Norris 126.3 7.55 3.06 1.35 79 0.0 Andy Hawkins Jacob Rhame 61.0 10.03 3.54 1.18 92 -0.1 Justin Hedrick Josh Ravin 26.0 11.08 4.15 1.73 84 -0.2 Steve Sparks Alfredo Figaro 76.0 5.68 2.96 1.30 78 -0.2 Jose Santiago Chin-hui Tsao 27.3 8.57 3.30 1.32 82 -0.2 Ben Weber Brandon Beachy 24.0 6.38 4.50 1.50 67 -0.3 Carlos Chantres Steve Geltz 59.0 9.31 3.81 1.53 86 -0.3 John Briscoe Ralston Cash 60.7 9.49 5.04 1.19 85 -0.4 Joe Valentine Edward Paredes 38.7 8.84 5.81 1.16 78 -0.5 Mike Kinnunen Wilmer Font 50.3 7.34 3.40 1.43 73 -0.5 Ivan Maldonado Sam LeCure 72.3 6.85 3.11 1.37 78 -0.5 Brandon Puffer Madison Younginer 66.3 7.33 3.94 1.09 82 -0.6 Sean Green Patrick Schuster 52.0 7.62 4.67 0.87 78 -0.6 Dean Brueggemann Gus Schlosser 61.7 6.42 3.65 1.46 72 -0.7 Ivan Maldonado Fabio Castillo 104.0 6.84 4.41 1.38 70 -1.2 Daven Bond Alex Burgos 48.0 6.56 5.44 1.69 63 -1.2 Randy Phillips Andrew Thurman 87.3 6.49 5.36 2.47 51 -3.1 Kerry Burchett *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.