2017 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers
After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other Projections: Arizona / Chicago NL / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.
Batters
Since 2009, only three different players have led Detroit batters by WAR: Miguel Cabrera (2009-13), Ian Kinsler (2014, -16), and J.D. Martinez (2015). According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, here are the probable top-three Tigers batters by WAR in 2017: Miguel Cabrera (583 PA, 4.0 zWAR), Ian Kinsler (631, 3.9), and J.D. Martinez (590, 3.1). That is, one finds, the precise same collection of players.
What does that say about a club generally? About this club specifically? Nothing definitive. That said, Detroit has developed a reputation in recent years for placing the majority of their eggs into expensive, aging baskets, and then the remainder of the eggs into whatever baskets happen to be lying around. The construction of the current roster — which pairs some well-compensated veterans like Cabrera and Kinsler with a replacement-level center-field platoon of Tyler Collins (463, 0.0) and JaCoby Jones (458, -0.1) — would appear to carry on that tradition.
Pitchers
Given how he looked in the 2014 season, Justin Verlander’s 2016 campaign is a real achievement. At 33, he recorded his highest average fastball velocity since 2012 (his age-29 season) and the highest strikeout rate ever. That’s not really how the aging curve is supposed to work. As for 2017, ZiPS calls for an outcome (169.1 IP, 3.5 zWAR) that more closely resembles Verlander’s 2015 campaign — which is to say, something between the lows of his 2014 season and highs of his 2016 one. The remaining members of the rotation all profile as slightly better than average, except for Anibal Sanchez (134.0, 0.9).
The majority of 2016’s bullpen returns in 2017 — which is neither very good nor very bad. Francisco Rodriguez (49.1 IP, 73 ERA-) isn’t merely the nominal closer, but receives the club’s lowest projected ERA by some distance.
Bench/Prospects
Shorstop Dixon Machado (552 PA, 1.5 zWAR) is technically blocked by Jose Iglesias (467, 1.5) but also possesses almost the same exact profile as Iglesias, too, with a little more selectivity and a little less contact. Steven Moya (545, 0.8) features a very different collection of offensive skills than Victor Martinez (507, 0.6), founded much more on power and much less on plate discipline, but ZiPS calls for similar outcomes in this case, too — which is to say, about league-average offense.
Left-hander Matt Boyd (134.2 IP, 1.3 zWAR) appears unlikely to begin the season as a member of Detroit’s rotation at this point, but his projection is more favorable than Sanchez’s. Among relievers, Joe Jimenez (46.1 IP, 87 ERA) is a former undrafted free agent who has never appeared in the majors, but who receives the third-best ERA forecast (behind Rodriguez and Verlander) among Tigers pitchers.
Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Cabrera | R | 34 | 1B | 583 | 73 | 154 | 29 | 1 | 27 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
Ian Kinsler | R | 35 | 2B | 631 | 90 | 160 | 29 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 11 | 6 |
J.D. Martinez | R | 29 | RF | 590 | 75 | 151 | 32 | 3 | 30 | 86 | 4 | 2 |
Justin Upton | R | 29 | LF | 608 | 82 | 139 | 27 | 2 | 29 | 92 | 11 | 4 |
Nick Castellanos | R | 25 | 3B | 550 | 53 | 135 | 29 | 5 | 17 | 69 | 1 | 2 |
James McCann | R | 27 | C | 434 | 37 | 97 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 2 | 1 |
Dixon Machado | R | 25 | SS | 552 | 53 | 120 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 11 | 4 |
Jose Iglesias | R | 27 | SS | 467 | 47 | 113 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 8 | 5 |
John Hicks | R | 27 | C | 349 | 37 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 5 | 2 |
Steven Moya | L | 25 | RF | 545 | 62 | 125 | 24 | 3 | 28 | 76 | 5 | 2 |
Miguel An. Gonzalez | R | 26 | C | 223 | 20 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 |
Jason Krizan | L | 28 | LF | 512 | 50 | 118 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 5 | 4 |
Victor Martinez | B | 38 | DH | 507 | 47 | 122 | 19 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
Christin Stewart | L | 23 | LF | 461 | 57 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 62 | 3 | 2 |
Erick Aybar | B | 33 | SS | 548 | 57 | 132 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 9 | 6 |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | B | 32 | C | 319 | 32 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Mike Gerber | L | 24 | RF | 512 | 54 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 57 | 7 | 3 |
Casey McGehee | R | 34 | 3B | 485 | 41 | 112 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 45 | 3 | 2 |
Andrew Romine | B | 31 | 3B | 246 | 26 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 2 |
Jeff McVaney | R | 27 | RF | 493 | 49 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 10 | 6 |
Grayson Greiner | R | 24 | C | 296 | 25 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
Alex Presley | L | 31 | LF | 366 | 36 | 82 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 5 |
Austin Green | R | 27 | C | 274 | 25 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 1 |
Tyler Collins | L | 27 | LF | 463 | 46 | 98 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 6 | 3 |
Kody Eaves | L | 23 | 3B | 474 | 48 | 90 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 49 | 8 | 7 |
Argenis Diaz | R | 30 | 2B | 373 | 31 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 3 |
JaCoby Jones | R | 25 | CF | 458 | 45 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 11 | 6 |
Jordany Valdespin | L | 29 | 2B | 315 | 31 | 70 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 8 | 5 |
Zac Shepherd | R | 21 | 3B | 492 | 48 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 49 | 1 | 1 |
Nate Schierholtz | L | 33 | LF | 241 | 24 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 2 |
Anthony Gose | L | 26 | CF | 508 | 55 | 99 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 20 | 9 |
Gustavo Nunez | B | 29 | SS | 356 | 32 | 77 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 8 |
Brett Pirtle | B | 26 | 2B | 302 | 26 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 3 |
Omar Infante | R | 35 | 2B | 382 | 33 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 3 | 2 |
Pedro Ciriaco | R | 31 | 2B | 287 | 24 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 3 |
Harold Castro | L | 23 | 2B | 434 | 37 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 9 | 9 |
Connor Harrell | R | 26 | CF | 440 | 40 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 5 | 3 |
Dominic Ficociello | B | 25 | 1B | 502 | 44 | 98 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 4 | 4 |
***
Player | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Cabrera | 583 | 11.0% | 17.8% | .220 | .330 | .301 | .379 | .521 | .368 |
Ian Kinsler | 631 | 5.9% | 13.6% | .155 | .297 | .275 | .325 | .430 | .333 |
J.D. Martinez | 590 | 8.0% | 25.6% | .240 | .339 | .283 | .344 | .523 | .365 |
Justin Upton | 608 | 9.7% | 26.3% | .218 | .309 | .257 | .332 | .475 | .348 |
Nick Castellanos | 550 | 6.5% | 24.0% | .179 | .326 | .267 | .316 | .446 | .326 |
James McCann | 434 | 4.8% | 24.7% | .119 | .302 | .240 | .282 | .359 | .279 |
Dixon Machado | 552 | 7.4% | 16.3% | .091 | .284 | .242 | .304 | .333 | .284 |
Jose Iglesias | 467 | 5.1% | 10.9% | .077 | .291 | .265 | .312 | .342 | .291 |
John Hicks | 349 | 4.6% | 25.5% | .125 | .302 | .239 | .277 | .364 | .281 |
Steven Moya | 545 | 3.7% | 32.1% | .220 | .303 | .240 | .270 | .460 | .310 |
Miguel An. Gonzalez | 223 | 4.9% | 20.2% | .098 | .283 | .234 | .277 | .332 | .266 |
Jason Krizan | 512 | 7.6% | 11.9% | .108 | .276 | .253 | .310 | .361 | .296 |
Victor Martinez | 507 | 6.9% | 13.8% | .152 | .276 | .263 | .320 | .415 | .308 |
Christin Stewart | 461 | 9.5% | 30.2% | .175 | .311 | .234 | .319 | .409 | .320 |
Erick Aybar | 548 | 5.1% | 11.3% | .079 | .288 | .261 | .303 | .340 | .283 |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 319 | 11.9% | 35.1% | .163 | .280 | .199 | .295 | .362 | .285 |
Mike Gerber | 512 | 6.3% | 29.1% | .161 | .301 | .231 | .283 | .392 | .293 |
Casey McGehee | 485 | 7.4% | 17.9% | .087 | .299 | .252 | .307 | .339 | .287 |
Andrew Romine | 246 | 6.1% | 20.7% | .063 | .292 | .233 | .289 | .296 | .268 |
Jeff McVaney | 493 | 6.9% | 19.9% | .112 | .283 | .233 | .301 | .345 | .294 |
Grayson Greiner | 296 | 5.4% | 31.4% | .109 | .287 | .207 | .254 | .316 | .247 |
Alex Presley | 366 | 6.3% | 16.9% | .098 | .280 | .243 | .294 | .341 | .284 |
Austin Green | 274 | 3.3% | 23.4% | .116 | .277 | .228 | .260 | .344 | .262 |
Tyler Collins | 463 | 6.9% | 25.5% | .141 | .284 | .231 | .287 | .372 | .292 |
Kody Eaves | 474 | 6.8% | 30.8% | .138 | .283 | .208 | .265 | .346 | .274 |
Argenis Diaz | 373 | 4.8% | 19.8% | .063 | .285 | .229 | .268 | .292 | .250 |
JaCoby Jones | 458 | 5.9% | 35.4% | .135 | .303 | .210 | .263 | .345 | .274 |
Jordany Valdespin | 315 | 6.3% | 15.9% | .101 | .278 | .244 | .298 | .345 | .289 |
Zac Shepherd | 492 | 8.5% | 39.6% | .144 | .278 | .181 | .255 | .325 | .256 |
Nate Schierholtz | 241 | 4.6% | 24.5% | .141 | .272 | .226 | .266 | .367 | .278 |
Anthony Gose | 508 | 7.5% | 32.5% | .106 | .314 | .214 | .279 | .320 | .279 |
Gustavo Nunez | 356 | 5.6% | 18.0% | .058 | .285 | .235 | .282 | .293 | .267 |
Brett Pirtle | 302 | 5.0% | 17.2% | .060 | .285 | .236 | .281 | .296 | .261 |
Omar Infante | 382 | 3.9% | 13.9% | .086 | .269 | .240 | .266 | .326 | .256 |
Pedro Ciriaco | 287 | 1.7% | 19.2% | .070 | .286 | .237 | .256 | .307 | .253 |
Harold Castro | 434 | 2.5% | 18.9% | .073 | .280 | .234 | .255 | .307 | .253 |
Connor Harrell | 440 | 4.5% | 35.5% | .105 | .292 | .197 | .253 | .302 | .251 |
Dominic Ficociello | 502 | 6.2% | 28.3% | .093 | .287 | .211 | .265 | .304 | .255 |
***
Player | PA | RC/27 | OPS+ | Def | zWAR | No.1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Cabrera | 583 | 7.7 | 145 | 1 | 4.0 | Manny Ramirez |
Ian Kinsler | 631 | 5.2 | 106 | 7 | 3.9 | Ryne Sandberg |
J.D. Martinez | 590 | 6.8 | 134 | -8 | 3.1 | Richie Zisk |
Justin Upton | 608 | 5.8 | 119 | -1 | 2.9 | Nelson Cruz |
Nick Castellanos | 550 | 5.1 | 107 | -9 | 1.7 | Kevin Mitchell |
James McCann | 434 | 3.6 | 75 | 5 | 1.7 | Henry Blanco |
Dixon Machado | 552 | 3.7 | 76 | 3 | 1.5 | Danny Bravo |
Jose Iglesias | 467 | 3.9 | 81 | 3 | 1.5 | Manuel Mayorson |
John Hicks | 349 | 3.6 | 75 | 5 | 1.5 | Ryan Hubele |
Steven Moya | 545 | 4.4 | 96 | -1 | 0.8 | Dave Hudgens |
Miguel An. Gonzalez | 223 | 3.2 | 67 | 4 | 0.8 | David Duff |
Jason Krizan | 512 | 4.0 | 84 | 6 | 0.8 | Andre David |
Victor Martinez | 507 | 4.9 | 100 | 0 | 0.6 | Tony Oliva |
Christin Stewart | 461 | 4.6 | 99 | -5 | 0.6 | Randy Bush |
Erick Aybar | 548 | 3.7 | 77 | -4 | 0.6 | Denny Doyle |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 319 | 3.6 | 80 | -5 | 0.6 | Steve Yeager |
Mike Gerber | 512 | 3.9 | 84 | 4 | 0.5 | Chris Lubanski |
Casey McGehee | 485 | 3.7 | 78 | -2 | 0.5 | Manny Trillo |
Andrew Romine | 246 | 3.3 | 62 | 5 | 0.5 | Chico Ruiz |
Jeff McVaney | 493 | 3.6 | 78 | 5 | 0.4 | Rick Lisi |
Grayson Greiner | 296 | 2.8 | 56 | 2 | 0.3 | Alan Probst |
Alex Presley | 366 | 3.5 | 75 | 6 | 0.2 | Ryan Fleming |
Austin Green | 274 | 3.0 | 65 | -2 | 0.0 | Joe Cipolloni |
Tyler Collins | 463 | 3.8 | 80 | 0 | 0.0 | Luke Allen |
Kody Eaves | 474 | 3.0 | 67 | 1 | 0.0 | Lance Madsen |
Argenis Diaz | 373 | 2.6 | 55 | 6 | -0.1 | Gary Green |
JaCoby Jones | 458 | 3.1 | 66 | 0 | -0.1 | Sean Barker |
Jordany Valdespin | 315 | 3.6 | 77 | -5 | -0.2 | Luis Rivas |
Zac Shepherd | 492 | 2.7 | 58 | 2 | -0.3 | Troy Cameron |
Nate Schierholtz | 241 | 3.3 | 72 | 0 | -0.3 | Dann Howitt |
Anthony Gose | 508 | 3.1 | 65 | -3 | -0.4 | Dave Krynzel |
Gustavo Nunez | 356 | 2.7 | 59 | -2 | -0.4 | Vance McHenry |
Brett Pirtle | 302 | 2.9 | 60 | 0 | -0.4 | Wes Carroll |
Omar Infante | 382 | 3.1 | 62 | -1 | -0.5 | Juan Castro |
Pedro Ciriaco | 287 | 2.9 | 54 | 0 | -0.6 | Casey Smith |
Harold Castro | 434 | 2.5 | 54 | 2 | -0.8 | Abigail Sandoval |
Connor Harrell | 440 | 2.5 | 52 | -3 | -1.1 | Kevin Ham |
Dominic Ficociello | 502 | 2.7 | 57 | 2 | -1.9 | Brian Suarez |
***
Player | T | Age | G | GS | IP | K | BB | HR | H | R | ER |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Verlander | R | 34 | 26 | 26 | 169.3 | 162 | 45 | 20 | 153 | 74 | 69 |
Michael Fulmer | R | 24 | 27 | 27 | 152.3 | 131 | 43 | 19 | 149 | 70 | 65 |
Daniel Norris | L | 24 | 30 | 30 | 153.0 | 142 | 58 | 18 | 155 | 75 | 70 |
Jordan Zimmermann | R | 31 | 25 | 25 | 143.3 | 107 | 31 | 19 | 154 | 71 | 66 |
Matt Boyd | L | 26 | 26 | 25 | 134.7 | 111 | 43 | 20 | 141 | 73 | 68 |
Anibal Sanchez | R | 33 | 26 | 22 | 134.0 | 114 | 42 | 20 | 138 | 76 | 71 |
Francisco Rodriguez | R | 35 | 55 | 0 | 49.3 | 48 | 15 | 6 | 45 | 18 | 17 |
Alex Wilson | R | 30 | 60 | 0 | 69.7 | 47 | 21 | 8 | 72 | 31 | 29 |
Tyler Alexander | L | 22 | 25 | 24 | 125.7 | 74 | 26 | 21 | 146 | 75 | 70 |
Joe Jimenez | R | 22 | 52 | 0 | 46.3 | 56 | 17 | 6 | 41 | 20 | 19 |
Blaine Hardy | L | 30 | 61 | 0 | 58.0 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 58 | 27 | 25 |
Kyle Ryan | L | 25 | 69 | 0 | 68.3 | 45 | 25 | 7 | 71 | 33 | 31 |
Mike Pelfrey | R | 33 | 21 | 20 | 109.0 | 53 | 37 | 14 | 135 | 66 | 62 |
Cesar Ramos | L | 33 | 38 | 6 | 66.0 | 47 | 25 | 9 | 72 | 36 | 34 |
Shane Greene | R | 28 | 38 | 15 | 99.3 | 80 | 35 | 12 | 107 | 59 | 55 |
Justin Wilson | L | 29 | 68 | 0 | 58.3 | 62 | 21 | 7 | 55 | 29 | 27 |
Preston Guilmet | R | 29 | 55 | 0 | 60.0 | 55 | 15 | 8 | 60 | 30 | 28 |
Chad Bell | L | 28 | 27 | 16 | 98.0 | 72 | 46 | 13 | 107 | 60 | 56 |
Bruce Rondon | R | 26 | 51 | 0 | 49.0 | 55 | 24 | 6 | 44 | 25 | 23 |
Artie Lewicki | R | 25 | 18 | 16 | 89.7 | 62 | 30 | 14 | 102 | 56 | 52 |
Logan Kensing | R | 34 | 44 | 0 | 53.3 | 40 | 21 | 5 | 56 | 28 | 26 |
Ruben Alaniz | R | 26 | 46 | 0 | 64.0 | 48 | 30 | 7 | 68 | 34 | 32 |
Angel Nesbitt | R | 26 | 50 | 0 | 61.3 | 55 | 28 | 8 | 62 | 33 | 31 |
Jeff Ferrell | R | 26 | 27 | 0 | 31.0 | 30 | 9 | 5 | 32 | 17 | 16 |
Mark Lowe | R | 34 | 51 | 0 | 49.0 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 49 | 27 | 25 |
Arcenio Leon | R | 30 | 43 | 0 | 48.3 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 51 | 27 | 25 |
Drew VerHagen | R | 26 | 33 | 0 | 42.0 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 46 | 24 | 22 |
Myles Jaye | R | 25 | 26 | 26 | 140.7 | 86 | 49 | 23 | 163 | 91 | 85 |
Warwick Saupold | R | 27 | 26 | 17 | 99.3 | 68 | 46 | 14 | 114 | 64 | 60 |
Buck Farmer | R | 26 | 30 | 21 | 121.0 | 96 | 46 | 22 | 135 | 78 | 73 |
Sean Donatello | R | 26 | 45 | 0 | 48.7 | 31 | 14 | 6 | 56 | 28 | 26 |
Paul Voelker | R | 24 | 50 | 0 | 54.0 | 58 | 26 | 8 | 53 | 31 | 29 |
Daniel Stumpf | L | 26 | 34 | 2 | 54.3 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 59 | 33 | 31 |
Dustin Molleken | R | 32 | 44 | 3 | 59.0 | 52 | 33 | 8 | 62 | 36 | 34 |
A.J. Achter | R | 28 | 53 | 0 | 71.3 | 51 | 25 | 12 | 78 | 42 | 39 |
William Cuevas | R | 26 | 25 | 18 | 114.7 | 76 | 53 | 19 | 132 | 77 | 72 |
Joshua Turley | L | 26 | 24 | 23 | 133.7 | 84 | 44 | 25 | 159 | 90 | 84 |
Austin Kubitza | R | 25 | 27 | 15 | 95.7 | 62 | 53 | 13 | 112 | 65 | 61 |
Bobby Parnell | R | 32 | 42 | 0 | 38.3 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 44 | 27 | 25 |
Drake Britton | L | 28 | 38 | 3 | 57.3 | 28 | 29 | 8 | 68 | 40 | 37 |
Kurt Spomer | R | 27 | 48 | 0 | 60.3 | 36 | 24 | 9 | 70 | 40 | 37 |
Thad Weber | R | 32 | 23 | 22 | 123.3 | 65 | 40 | 24 | 152 | 88 | 82 |
Adam Ravenelle | R | 24 | 41 | 0 | 49.0 | 40 | 33 | 8 | 54 | 35 | 33 |
Tommy Collier | R | 27 | 24 | 24 | 121.7 | 69 | 48 | 24 | 150 | 89 | 83 |
Jairo Labourt | L | 23 | 28 | 17 | 90.3 | 65 | 79 | 13 | 102 | 68 | 64 |
Sandy Baez | R | 23 | 18 | 18 | 87.7 | 52 | 36 | 19 | 110 | 68 | 64 |
Victor Alcantara | R | 24 | 27 | 22 | 106.7 | 65 | 72 | 18 | 128 | 87 | 81 |
***
Player | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | ERA- | FIP- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Verlander | 169.3 | 706 | 22.9% | 6.4% | .281 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 86 | 85 |
Michael Fulmer | 152.3 | 649 | 20.2% | 6.6% | .291 | 3.84 | 4.01 | 90 | 94 |
Daniel Norris | 153.0 | 672 | 21.1% | 8.6% | .305 | 4.12 | 4.00 | 97 | 94 |
Jordan Zimmermann | 143.3 | 615 | 17.4% | 5.0% | .298 | 4.14 | 4.07 | 97 | 96 |
Matt Boyd | 134.7 | 588 | 18.9% | 7.3% | .297 | 4.54 | 4.50 | 107 | 106 |
Anibal Sanchez | 134.0 | 582 | 19.6% | 7.2% | .293 | 4.77 | 4.33 | 112 | 102 |
Francisco Rodriguez | 49.3 | 208 | 23.1% | 7.2% | .281 | 3.10 | 3.59 | 73 | 85 |
Alex Wilson | 69.7 | 302 | 15.6% | 7.0% | .286 | 3.75 | 4.11 | 88 | 97 |
Tyler Alexander | 125.7 | 549 | 13.5% | 4.7% | .297 | 5.01 | 4.89 | 118 | 115 |
Joe Jimenez | 46.3 | 197 | 28.4% | 8.6% | .305 | 3.69 | 3.60 | 87 | 85 |
Blaine Hardy | 58.0 | 253 | 19.4% | 8.3% | .295 | 3.88 | 3.74 | 91 | 88 |
Kyle Ryan | 68.3 | 301 | 15.0% | 8.3% | .290 | 4.08 | 4.18 | 96 | 98 |
Mike Pelfrey | 109.0 | 499 | 10.6% | 7.4% | .311 | 5.12 | 4.99 | 120 | 117 |
Cesar Ramos | 66.0 | 295 | 15.9% | 8.5% | .297 | 4.64 | 4.59 | 109 | 108 |
Shane Greene | 99.3 | 440 | 18.2% | 8.0% | .310 | 4.98 | 4.24 | 117 | 100 |
Justin Wilson | 58.3 | 251 | 24.7% | 8.4% | .302 | 4.17 | 3.62 | 98 | 85 |
Preston Guilmet | 60.0 | 255 | 21.6% | 5.9% | .299 | 4.20 | 3.76 | 99 | 88 |
Chad Bell | 98.0 | 447 | 16.1% | 10.3% | .303 | 5.14 | 4.86 | 121 | 114 |
Bruce Rondon | 49.0 | 215 | 25.6% | 11.2% | .299 | 4.22 | 3.98 | 99 | 94 |
Artie Lewicki | 89.7 | 401 | 15.5% | 7.5% | .303 | 5.22 | 4.92 | 123 | 116 |
Logan Kensing | 53.3 | 237 | 16.9% | 8.9% | .302 | 4.39 | 4.06 | 103 | 96 |
Ruben Alaniz | 64.0 | 290 | 16.6% | 10.3% | .303 | 4.50 | 4.53 | 106 | 107 |
Angel Nesbitt | 61.3 | 274 | 20.1% | 10.2% | .302 | 4.55 | 4.53 | 107 | 106 |
Jeff Ferrell | 31.0 | 134 | 22.4% | 6.7% | .303 | 4.65 | 4.14 | 109 | 97 |
Mark Lowe | 49.0 | 214 | 22.4% | 8.4% | .300 | 4.59 | 4.05 | 108 | 95 |
Arcenio Leon | 48.3 | 216 | 18.5% | 9.3% | .306 | 4.66 | 4.37 | 110 | 103 |
Drew VerHagen | 42.0 | 190 | 14.2% | 9.5% | .297 | 4.71 | 4.65 | 111 | 110 |
Myles Jaye | 140.7 | 634 | 13.6% | 7.7% | .299 | 5.44 | 5.20 | 128 | 122 |
Warwick Saupold | 99.3 | 458 | 14.9% | 10.0% | .309 | 5.44 | 5.14 | 128 | 121 |
Buck Farmer | 121.0 | 544 | 17.6% | 8.5% | .303 | 5.43 | 5.17 | 128 | 122 |
Sean Donatello | 48.7 | 216 | 14.3% | 6.5% | .308 | 4.81 | 4.42 | 113 | 104 |
Paul Voelker | 54.0 | 241 | 24.1% | 10.8% | .308 | 4.83 | 4.38 | 114 | 103 |
Daniel Stumpf | 54.3 | 242 | 17.8% | 8.3% | .308 | 5.13 | 4.47 | 121 | 105 |
Dustin Molleken | 59.0 | 272 | 19.1% | 12.1% | .307 | 5.19 | 4.89 | 122 | 115 |
A.J. Achter | 71.3 | 317 | 16.1% | 7.9% | .292 | 4.92 | 5.00 | 116 | 118 |
William Cuevas | 114.7 | 529 | 14.4% | 10.0% | .301 | 5.65 | 5.48 | 133 | 129 |
Joshua Turley | 133.7 | 604 | 13.9% | 7.3% | .302 | 5.66 | 5.42 | 133 | 128 |
Austin Kubitza | 95.7 | 452 | 13.7% | 11.7% | .311 | 5.74 | 5.43 | 135 | 128 |
Bobby Parnell | 38.3 | 181 | 13.3% | 12.2% | .305 | 5.87 | 5.35 | 138 | 126 |
Drake Britton | 57.3 | 269 | 10.4% | 10.8% | .299 | 5.81 | 5.51 | 137 | 130 |
Kurt Spomer | 60.3 | 275 | 13.1% | 8.7% | .301 | 5.52 | 5.10 | 130 | 120 |
Thad Weber | 123.3 | 562 | 11.6% | 7.1% | .301 | 5.98 | 5.68 | 141 | 134 |
Adam Ravenelle | 49.0 | 234 | 17.1% | 14.1% | .307 | 6.06 | 5.80 | 143 | 136 |
Tommy Collier | 121.7 | 563 | 12.3% | 8.5% | .304 | 6.14 | 5.89 | 144 | 139 |
Jairo Labourt | 90.3 | 452 | 14.4% | 17.5% | .308 | 6.38 | 6.36 | 150 | 150 |
Sandy Baez | 87.7 | 409 | 12.7% | 8.8% | .307 | 6.57 | 6.17 | 155 | 145 |
Victor Alcantara | 106.7 | 520 | 12.5% | 13.8% | .307 | 6.83 | 6.30 | 161 | 148 |
***
Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | zWAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Verlander | 169.3 | 8.61 | 2.39 | 1.06 | 113 | 3.5 | Orlando Hernandez |
Michael Fulmer | 152.3 | 7.74 | 2.54 | 1.12 | 108 | 2.8 | Brad Penny |
Daniel Norris | 153.0 | 8.35 | 3.41 | 1.06 | 101 | 2.3 | Paul Maholm |
Jordan Zimmermann | 143.3 | 6.72 | 1.95 | 1.19 | 100 | 2.1 | Ismael Valdez |
Matt Boyd | 134.7 | 7.42 | 2.87 | 1.34 | 91 | 1.3 | Horacio Estrada |
Anibal Sanchez | 134.0 | 7.66 | 2.82 | 1.34 | 87 | 0.9 | Chan Ho Park |
Francisco Rodriguez | 49.3 | 8.76 | 2.74 | 1.10 | 134 | 0.8 | Steve Reed |
Alex Wilson | 69.7 | 6.07 | 2.71 | 1.03 | 111 | 0.6 | Dale Mohorcic |
Tyler Alexander | 125.7 | 5.30 | 1.86 | 1.50 | 83 | 0.5 | Randy Leek |
Joe Jimenez | 46.3 | 10.89 | 3.30 | 1.17 | 112 | 0.4 | Antonio Osuna |
Blaine Hardy | 58.0 | 7.60 | 3.26 | 0.93 | 107 | 0.4 | Javier Lopez |
Kyle Ryan | 68.3 | 5.93 | 3.29 | 0.92 | 102 | 0.3 | Pat Clements |
Mike Pelfrey | 109.0 | 4.38 | 3.06 | 1.16 | 81 | 0.3 | Charlie Robertson |
Cesar Ramos | 66.0 | 6.41 | 3.41 | 1.23 | 89 | 0.2 | Curt Young |
Shane Greene | 99.3 | 7.25 | 3.17 | 1.09 | 83 | 0.2 | Matt Herges |
Justin Wilson | 58.3 | 9.57 | 3.24 | 1.08 | 100 | 0.2 | John Grabow |
Preston Guilmet | 60.0 | 8.25 | 2.25 | 1.20 | 99 | 0.2 | Travis Minix |
Chad Bell | 98.0 | 6.61 | 4.22 | 1.19 | 81 | 0.2 | Scott Forster |
Bruce Rondon | 49.0 | 10.10 | 4.41 | 1.10 | 98 | 0.1 | Brian Bruney |
Artie Lewicki | 89.7 | 6.22 | 3.01 | 1.40 | 79 | 0.1 | Jamie Arnold |
Logan Kensing | 53.3 | 6.75 | 3.55 | 0.84 | 94 | 0.0 | Rube Ehrhardt |
Ruben Alaniz | 64.0 | 6.75 | 4.22 | 0.98 | 92 | 0.0 | Joe Hudson |
Angel Nesbitt | 61.3 | 8.08 | 4.11 | 1.17 | 91 | -0.1 | Tony Dougherty |
Jeff Ferrell | 31.0 | 8.71 | 2.61 | 1.45 | 89 | -0.1 | Kevin Crafton |
Mark Lowe | 49.0 | 8.82 | 3.31 | 1.29 | 90 | -0.1 | Matt Whiteside |
Arcenio Leon | 48.3 | 7.45 | 3.73 | 1.12 | 89 | -0.1 | Jason Bullard |
Drew VerHagen | 42.0 | 5.79 | 3.86 | 1.07 | 88 | -0.1 | Ed Sprague |
Myles Jaye | 140.7 | 5.50 | 3.13 | 1.47 | 76 | -0.1 | Junior Herndon |
Warwick Saupold | 99.3 | 6.16 | 4.17 | 1.27 | 76 | -0.2 | Daron Kirkreit |
Buck Farmer | 121.0 | 7.14 | 3.42 | 1.64 | 76 | -0.2 | Brent Schoening |
Sean Donatello | 48.7 | 5.73 | 2.59 | 1.11 | 86 | -0.2 | Bill McAfee |
Paul Voelker | 54.0 | 9.67 | 4.33 | 1.33 | 86 | -0.3 | Craig Dingman |
Daniel Stumpf | 54.3 | 7.13 | 3.31 | 1.16 | 81 | -0.3 | Tim Hamulack |
Dustin Molleken | 59.0 | 7.93 | 5.03 | 1.22 | 80 | -0.3 | David Lee |
A.J. Achter | 71.3 | 6.44 | 3.16 | 1.51 | 84 | -0.4 | Ryan Cummings |
William Cuevas | 114.7 | 5.96 | 4.16 | 1.49 | 73 | -0.5 | Mike Heathcott |
Joshua Turley | 133.7 | 5.65 | 2.96 | 1.68 | 73 | -0.5 | Mike Rochford |
Austin Kubitza | 95.7 | 5.83 | 4.98 | 1.22 | 72 | -0.6 | Steve Sparks |
Bobby Parnell | 38.3 | 5.64 | 5.17 | 1.17 | 71 | -0.7 | Jerry Johnson |
Drake Britton | 57.3 | 4.40 | 4.55 | 1.26 | 71 | -0.7 | Danny Young |
Kurt Spomer | 60.3 | 5.37 | 3.58 | 1.34 | 75 | -0.8 | Rick Berg |
Thad Weber | 123.3 | 4.74 | 2.92 | 1.75 | 69 | -1.0 | R.A. Dickey |
Adam Ravenelle | 49.0 | 7.35 | 6.06 | 1.47 | 68 | -1.0 | Brad Tweedlie |
Tommy Collier | 121.7 | 5.10 | 3.55 | 1.77 | 68 | -1.2 | Kirk McDonald |
Jairo Labourt | 90.3 | 6.48 | 7.87 | 1.30 | 65 | -1.2 | Rich Stahl |
Sandy Baez | 87.7 | 5.34 | 3.69 | 1.95 | 63 | -1.3 | Steve Wilson |
Victor Alcantara | 106.7 | 5.48 | 6.07 | 1.52 | 61 | -2.0 | Joel Santo |
***
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I hope Cabrera doesn’t read this. His comp to Manny Ramirez is insulting.
In his age 34 season, Manny Ramirez hit .321/.439/.619.
At the end of that season, his career line was .317/.413/.602 (157 OPS+).
Miggy enters this season with a career line of .321/.399/.562 (155 OPS+).
Sure glad that ManRam could hit it over the fence, because it sure was painful to watch him standing on base. If he isn’t at the top of the leaderboard for getting thrown out on base I would be very surprised 😀
By wOBA, Manny has a top-20 all-time age-34 season, with a 500 PA minimum. He’s actually a pretty darn good comp for Cabrera.