Sunday Notes: Winter Meetings, Pirates, D-Backs, Dodgers, Dozier, more

The Pirates have some big decisions to make this offseason, not the least of which is what to do with Andrew McCutchen. The face of the franchise was a white-hot, trade-rumor topic at the Winter Meetings, and if he does remain in Jolly Roger land, speculation abounds that he could move from center field to right field.

Another outfield question looms as well. The analytics-minded club positioned their fly-catchers shallower than usual in 2016, with less-than-ideal results. I asked GM Neal Huntington about that at the winter meetings.

Huntington told me their internal data showed they “gave up more damage in front of us than we had over our head,” and that they ran “model after model that showed had we played shallower, we would have prevented more runs than if we’d have played deeper.”

That doesn’t mean there won’t be changes. With the season in the rearview, it’s once again time to parse data.

“You plan for the best, you evaluate what happens, and you react and adjust accordingly,” explained the Amherst College alum. “We’re working through how we’re going to redeploy, and how we’re going to improve the model, and how we improve the execution of that.”

As is the case with defensive shifts within the infield, buy-in is essential.

“We need to make sure we educate on why we’re doing what we’re doing — why we believe it is the right thing, and not just some random thousands of data points.” explained Huntington. “It’s pitcher-specific, with enough valid data points to make it tangible. But if a pitcher doesn’t execute a pitch, and a ball is hit where we’re not going to catch it, there’s nothing we can do about that. You can’t defend the outlier.

“There is a percentage of the field you can defend, and we’re looking to maximize that percentage, based on pitcher, defender, and probabilities. That’s all we’re doing. Everything we do is about playing the probabilities.We’re about maximizing probability, based on analytic models and scouting models.”

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Tigers manager Brad Ausmus was asked how happy he was with his club’s defensive positioning this past season. Somewhat surprisingly, he didn’t have a direct answer.

“We haven’t looked at it,” answered Ausmus. “Seemed like we shifted a little bit less, and part of that was a product of the teams we play in our division. Part of it was a product of the personnel you put out there. So, we haven’t looked at it yet, but I’m sure — especially with the growing analytical department — it will be.”

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Earlier this week it was announced that the Diamondbacks have hired Dan Haren as a “pitching strategist.” The recently-retired right-hander will reportedly work with the front office — including the analytics department — and the big-league coaching staff.

Arizona manager Torey Lovullo was asked about Haren when he met with the media on Tuesday.

“(It’s) not necessarily the spin rate or the TrackMan; it’s not really tied into that,” Lovullo said of Haren’s role. “It’s his own personal analysis, with his pitching expertise background, that’s going to spit out a game report. And he’s going to help certain pitchers win moments. If you win one moment, it might help you win an inning, which could help you win a game. We are going to utilize him on the highest level we possibly can.”

That utilization will occur out of uniform, and mostly out of the public eye.

“Mike Butcher is our pitching coach,” clarified Lovullo. “Mike Butcher is going to be the guy that’s going to share thoughts, and talk about deliveries, and work on the mental aspects of the game. Haren is going to be behind the scenes.”

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Rich Hill re-signed with the Dodgers earlier this week. In some respects, inking the three-year, $48M contract was the culmination of an underdog story. The University of Michigan product is 36 years old, he has 38 career wins, and two seasons ago he was pitching for the Long Island Ducks.

Neither pitcher, nor team, views the signing as an endpoint. Expectations are that the lefty will continue to excel with a heavy dose of curveballs. Hill has been throwing the pitch nearly 50 percent of the time, which is extreme for a starter. It’s also been his secret to success.

Staying a step ahead of hitters will be the trick. The more they see of a pitcher’s offering, the more comfortable they are attacking it. At least that’s the theory. In Hill’s case, not everyone agrees.

“We feel good about Rich’s usage,” said Dodgers president Andrew Friedman. “There’s also a dynamic fastball that plays really well. They complement one another. With his ability to surprise a hitter — that element of surprise in terms of location, with the various pitches, and the drop down — we feel good about him going forward. Even if has to back off that a little bit, we still like what he’s capable of.”

Dave Roberts echoed those thoughts, adding that a curveball doesn’t necessarily have to be defined as a secondary pitch.

“His breaking ball is elite, and he trusts that he can locate the fastball when he needs to,” the Dodgers manager told me. “There’s also no set thing that you have to pitch off your fastball. You could argue that his off-speed is his fastball, and that his curveball is his primary.

“If you look at major league usage, secondary versus primary is right around 50 percent anyway. Most pitchers have multiple secondaries, whereas Rich pitches off that curveball. He doesn’t throw many sliders or changeups. His curveball could also be a slow 67 (MPH), or it could be an 83, and he shapes it with the arm angles. So even if it is his primary, it acts as completely different pitches.”

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Nate Karns had a rough 2016 season. The Seattle righty won six of his eight decisions, but his ERA was an unsightly 5.15. He was also shut down with a back issue late in the campaign.

Of the 28 pitchers to work at least 90 innings and finish with an ERA of 5.00 or higher, only Michael Wacha (3.91) had a lower FIP than Karns 4.05 mark. I asked Mariners manager Scott Servais what that said about Karns’ performance, and what it might mean going forward.

“He didn’t have a lot of luck; that’s what it says a little bit,” answered Servais. “But the thing with Nate, his stuff is there — good fastball, really good curveball, strikeout numbers are up there. Obviously, he had some walk issues and (was) running up deep pitch counts. Hopefully he will get more pitch-efficient, and make adjustments a little bit quicker. But health-wise, he feels good.”

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News was made during the BBWAA’s annual winter meetings business discussion. It was announced that Claire Smith, the first African-American female newspaper reporter to cover MLB, is the recipient of this year’s J.G. Taylor Spink Award, for “meritorious contributions to baseball writing.” The award has been given out annually since 1962. Smith — the first woman to be so honored — received a standing ovation.

That wasn’t the only news. The BBWAA passed a measure mandating that all Hall of Fame ballots will be made public starting next year. As members had already begun mailing in ballots for the current year it remains voluntary for this election. Of the 89 members in attendance at the meeting, only nine voted against transparency.

Meanwhile, the late Bill King was honored with the Ford C. Frick Award, for broadcasting excellence. He called games for the Oakland A’s for 25 years. According to Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, King ”was just an incredible personality, an eccentric in a positive way that stood out even in the Bay Area, which is full of eccentrics.”

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Ned Yost shared some winter-meetings-themed words of wisdom when he met with the media on Monday.

“The nature of the business… John Schuerholz is in the Hall of Fame now, and he would tell our coaching staff, and Bobby (Cox), that our job is to manage change. And that’s what we have to do from year-to-year — we have to manage change, because it’s inevitable.”

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Bo Porter has changed jobs. After two seasons as Atlanta’s third base coach, the former manager of the Houston Astros is now a special assistant to Braves general manager John Coppolella. Porter transitioned into the front office when Ron Washington took over his old position in October. He sees it as a stepping stone to bigger and better things.

“I looked at my career and asked myself the question, ‘How can I add additional value to the organization?,’ Porter told this past week. “I’ve always been involved in a lot of what took place in the front office. John Hart and John Coppolella would run things by me. So, as I looked at the landscape, I saw this as an opportunity to get more in depth on how teams are built, understanding budgets — things of that nature.”

As for his longterm role — coach, manager, or front office executive — he’s leaving his options open.

“I’ll let situations evolve and make that decision in the future,” said Porter. “For now, I’m in this with both feet, full speed ahead.”

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Brian Dozier wasn’t dealt at the winter meetings. That’s good news for Twins fans enamored with his performance and his charisma. The 29-year-old second baseman would be happy to remain in Minnesota as well. On Monday, he told a small group of reporters, “I’m a Twin and I’d like to remain a Twin. All of these rumors are really overwhelming.”

Dozier could still be moved. His trade value is high and he plays on a rebuilding team. If the Twins get an offer they can’t refuse, he’ll understand their reasoning. He’d also accept a move across the diamond.

“I would be amenable to any position,” said Dozier. “As long as we’re winning. You know that from the get go. I’ve always said that. When I went over from shortstop to second — for me, it’s all about winning games. Put me on the bump. I still have a few bullets left.”

That would be an accurate assessment. Dozier made one pitching appearance at Southern Mississippi, and faced two batters. He hasn’t taken the mound as a professional.

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In spring training, Scooter Gennett told me his primary goal going forward was to “draw more walks and have a higher on-base percentage. By being more selective, I think I can also hit for a little more authority.”

Technically, he accomplished those goals. For all intents and purposes, he fell short of them. The Brewers second basement finished with a .317 OBP and a .412 SLG. Those numbers are especially disappointing when you consider his early-season performance. On May 12, the 26-year-old infielder was slashing .277/.382/.523.

I mentioned Gennett’s previously-expressed goals to Craig Counsell.

“He got off to a start, to where that happened,” said the Milwaukee manager. “But then it regressed, quite frankly, to what we had seen in the past. That’s his key to unlock, to take the next step — pitch selectivity. As a player puts 2,000 plate appearances under his belt… a player like Scooter, when the knowledge level goes up, the power has a chance to go up, too.”

Gennett has come to the plate 1,637 times in a big-league uniform. He has 3,886 plate appearances since beginning his professional career with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in 2010. Given the acquisition of third baseman Travis Shaw, and the expectation that Jonathan Villar will transition to second base, Gennett’s future may be with another team. There’s a good chance he could be traded in the not-too-distant future.

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Here is a historical nugget from the great-trades category:

In December 1977, Milwaukee acquired outfielder Ben Oglivie from Detroit in exchange for right-hander Jim Slaton and a throw-in named Rich Folkers. Oglivie went on bash 176 home runs with the Brewers — including 41 in 1980 — and make three All-Star teams. Slaton spent one season with the Tigers before returning to Milwaukee as a free agent. His first year back, he started 31 games and went 15-9 with a 3.63 ERA. He pitched in the postseason in 1981, 1982, and 1983.

In 1983, he was a Swiss Army Knife out of the Brewers bullpen. Pitching exclusively in relief, Slaton entered games in innings 1 through 10 over the course of the season. He made 46 appearances and was credited with 14 wins and five saves.

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Boston’s Sale-Price pitching staff currently includes fellow southpaws Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz. If that foursome accompanies righty Rick Porcello in the starting rotation, we’ll be seeing something unusual, if not unprecedented. Thanks in part to the Green Monster, going lefty-heavy has been largely eschewed at Fenway.

Price, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez combined to make 68 starts for Boston this past season, while Henry Owens started five games. In 1983, Bruce Hurst, Bob Ojeda, and John Tudor combined to make 94 starts, with John Henry Johnson adding one more to the portsider total.

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Prior to reading it in Jeff Passan’s excellent book, The Arm, I didn’t know that Astros pitching coach Brent Strom was the second player to undergo Tommy John surgery. Strom, who had 100 big-league games under his belt, went under the knife in 1978. He returned to pitch in the minors, but didn’t make it back to MLB.

Tom Candiotti was the second pitcher to play in the big leagues after having Tommy John surgery. He proceeded to throw 2,725 innings over a 16-year career.

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On September 30, 1956, Jim Derrington debuted with the Chicago White Sox. He was 16 years, 305 days old. The bonus baby left-hander allowed five runs over six innings, and took the loss. In his second at bat, Derrington singled off of Kansas City Athletics right-hander William Womble Harrington, who was making the final appearance of his career.

On September 29, 1957, Derrington made his final big-league appearance, at 17 years, 304 days. The last strikeout of his 21-game career came against Cleveland Indians rookie Roger Maris.

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Awful Announcing’s Shlomo Sprung talked to ESPN’s Jayson Stark about what it’s like to cover the Winter Meetings. Stark wasn’t kidding when he called it “a fascinating process.”

Over at the Baltimore Sun, Jon Meoli took an in-depth look at how the Orioles prepare for, and capitalize on, the annual Rule 5 draft.

Hamtramck Stadium, the 1930s home of the Negro League’s Detroit Stars and Detroit Wolves, will be revitalized thanks to the Navin Field Grounds Crew. Michael Betzold has the story at Motor City Muckraker.

At Chicago Reader, Baseball Prospectus cofounder, and current ESPN senior editor, Christina Kahrl wrote in first-person about The Sportswriter Who Happens to be Trans.

J.G. Taylor Spink Award-winner Claire Smith was interviewed at PBS News Hour.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

The Seager brothers combined for 13.0 WAR this year. Corey had 7.5, Kyle 5.5.

Dexter Fowler had the lowest O-Swing% (19.4%) among qualified hitters this season. Adam Jones had the highest, 44.8%.

Jose Ramirez (84.4%) had the highest O-Contact% among qualified hitters. Chris Carter had the lowest, 42.2%.

In 1905, Philadelphia Athletics outfielder Topsy Hartsel led the American League with 121 bases on balls. Chicago’s Fielder Jones finished second, with 73.

The sixth-annual SABR Analytics Conference will be held in Phoenix on March 9-11. The initial list of featured speakers includes Eno Sarris, Brian Kenny, Vince Gennaro, and Jessica Mendoza. Many more speakers will be added in the upcoming months.