2017 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
As noted over the last month in these pages both by Jeff Sullivan and then Craig Edwards, the Kansas City Royals currently employ a number of players who are likely to become free agents after the 2017 season. What the ZiPS projections featured here do is reinforce the relative importance of those pending free agents to Kansas City’s likelihood of winning games. Because, consider: of the nine field players forecast to record a 1.0 WAR or better in 2017, five of them — Lorenzo Cain (503 PA, 3.1 zWAR), Jarrod Dyson (303, 1.9), Alcides Escobar (652, 1.3), Eric Hosmer (648, 1.3), and Mike Moustakas (381, 1.6) — aren’t signed by the club past next year. Over half the team’s core, in other words, is likely to depart.

That adds some urgency to the 2017 campaign. Unfortunately, Dan Szymborski’s computer doesn’t offer much grounds for optimism. Besides Cain, only Alex Gordon (529, 2.1) and Salvador Perez (561, 3.3) are projected to break the two-win threshold among the team’s position players. The prospective starters at second base and designated hitter, meanwhile — Raul Mondesi (410, -0.3) and Jorge Soler (346, 0.2), respectively — mostly profile as replacement-level types.

Pitchers
Is the pitching side of things any better? Sort of, yes. But also: sort of, no. Left-hander Danny Duffy (167.2 IP, 3.6 zWAR) receives the top projection among all members of the staff. Like Cain and Dyson and everyone, though, he’s due to become a free agent after the season, so his utility is short-lived. Starters Yordano Ventura (172.2, 2.6) and Ian Kennedy (146.2, 1.9) profile as solidly average, however — and both are signed through at least 2019. Left-hander Matt Strahm (110.1, 1.2) also offers some promise. After working as a starter almost exclusively in the minors between 2015 and -16, he pitched only in relief following his promotion to the majors last year.

As for the bullpen, it appears to lack the signature quality that defined Kansas City’s World Series clubs. Both Wade Davis and Greg Holland have departed, rendering Kelvin Herrera (70.0 IP, 65 ERA-, 1.3 zWAR) the likely closer. All evidence suggests he’s qualified to excel in high-leverage innings; he lacks a supporting cast, is the problem. Joakim Soria (63.1, 0.4), who receives the second-best projection among relievers, is forecast to prevent only 10% more runs than an average pitcher.

Bench/Prospects
Two of the club’s players expected to produce a win or better — Cheslor Cuthbert (574 PA, 1.4 zWAR) and Whit Merrifield (580, 1.3) — are omitted from the depth-chart image below but figure to receive playing time in 2017. The latter has a case to start at second ahead of Mondesi. Among rookie eligibiles, catcher Cam Gallagher (364, 0.9) earns the top WAR projection.

While he experienced some difficulties over his first three innings in the majors last season, right-hander Alec Mills (105.1 IP, 1.2 zWAR) recorded pretty excellent indicators in Double- and Triple-A last year. His ZiPS projection suggests that he’s more or less interchangeable with Strahm and Jason Vargas (64.0, 0.8). He represents the best of the club’s rookie-eligible pitchers — strictly for the 2017 season, that is.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Royals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.