2017 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Washington.

Batters
The present document represents only the second of 30 total installments of these team-by-by ZiPS projections. Despite that, it’s likely that no other club’s hitters will receive such optimistic forecasts as the Cubs’ do here. Nor is that particularly surprising: Chicago’s field players produced the highest collective WAR figure in the league by some distance in 2016 — and only one of that team’s starters (Dexter Fowler) has left by way of free agency.

Kris Bryant (6.9 zWAR) receives basically the best projection possible among players who aren’t also Mike Trout. Anthony Rizzo (5.7) and Addison Russell (4.2) also profile as star-level types, per Dan Szymborski’s computer. ZiPS calls for the remainder of the team’s starters to produce wins at an average rate or better — including Jason Heyward (3.1), whose defensive forecast (+13 runs in right field) compensates for whatever offensive deficiencies he might continue to exhibit.

Pitchers
Like the offense, the rotation has also lost only one piece this offseason — namely Jason Hammel, whose projection (1.5 zWAR in 145.1 innings) places him in a different category than the club’s four top starters, anyway. Whatever reasons for optimism might exist apropos Mike Montgomery (115.1 IP, 1.1 zWAR) as the club’s fifth starter, they don’t exert much influence over the ZiPS algorithm.

The departure of Aroldis Chapman obviously creates a vacuum at the back of Chicago’s bullpen — and that unit represents probably the club’s greatest weakness (relatively speaking) as the roster is presently constructed. Hector Rondon’s postseason was suboptimal, but he receives a promising forecast (72 ERA-) nonetheless. He and Pedro Strop (71 ERA-) appear to remain the most qualified candidates for high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
Third-base prospect Jeimer Candelario (2.4 zWAR) didn’t experience much success in his brief exposure to the majors at the beginning of July, but he’s already projected to play like an average major leaguer and his top historical comp is Edwin Encarnacion. He and outfielder Albert Almora (1.8) represent the best of the club’s young depth, while Chesny Young (1.0) appears to be a possible fixture among the Fringe Five. The depth is less robust among the team’s pitchers. Only 27-year-old Jake Buchanan (121.1 IP, 0.7 zWAR), for example, receives a projection of better than half a win.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.