2018 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Mets position players actually put together a pretty strong campaign in 2017, recording the 11th-best WAR in the majors among their peers. That would normally represent some cause for optimism in terms of next season — would, that is, were the current roster to feature the same personnel as this past year’s. An inspection of that roster, however, reveals that four of the club’s top seven players by WAR from 2017 are no longer employed by the organization. Curtis Granderson (2.3 WAR for the Mets in 2017), Jay Bruce (2.0), Jose Reyes (2.0), and Neil Walker (1.4) have all departed either by way of trade or free agency.

The exodus of talent might pose some challenges to the 2018 edition of the Mets. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, it also might not. ZiPS calls for over seven wins combined from Yoenis Cespedes (projected for 500 PA and 3.4 zWAR) and Michael Conforto (513, 3.7), which would go some distance towards mitigating the losses of the club’s departed outfielders. The projections here also suggest that young shortstop Amed Rosario (594, 2.2) and young first baseman Dominic Smith (652, 2.5) could produce nearly five wins as a pair — this, after recording -0.3 WAR collectively in 2017. Those sorts of return would likely place the Mets’ field-playing contingent among the league’s middle third again.

Pitchers
The prognosis for the staff is less encouraging. Among Mets pitchers, only Jacob deGrom crossed the two-win threshold in 2017. Only deGrom (181.1 IP, 3.9 zWAR) and Noah Syndergaard (141.2, 4.1) are forecast to do it in 2018. There isn’t a lot of substance after that pair. For example: the third-ranked pitcher by projected WAR, Steven Matz (105.0, 1.7), is returning from an elbow injury that could complicate matters*. The fourth-best one, Marcos Molina (108.1, 1.3), has literally never appeared above Double-A.

*A reminder: ZiPS doesn’t account for injuries, specifically. Rather, it adjusts playing time based on a player’s history.

As for the Mets bullpen, it would likely also benefit from an upgrade. Mets relievers produced 1.2 WAR collectively in 2017. By comparison, four different members of the Yankees pen reached that same figure on their own. A healthy Jeurys Familia (57.0 IP, 73 ERA-, 1.2 zWAR) would benefit the club considerably. A full season of A.J. Ramos (57.1, 84, 1.0) would also help. If the club intends to lean on the bullpen more heavily in 2018, however, they’ll probably have to acquire more capable arms.

Bench/Prospects
While both Rosario and Smith exhausted their rookie eligibility in 2017, they’ve recorded fewer than 350 plate appearances between them. Were they to reach their projected win totals in 2018 — again, 2.2 and 2.5 WAR, respectively — that would solve a couple of problems for the club very quickly. Brandon Nimmo (474 PA, 0.8 zWAR) also exceeded the rookie limit this past season. Szymborski’s computer is less optimistic about him, although he might approach average-type production in a platoon role. Among rookie-eligible field players, Gavin Cecchini (570, 1.0) receives the top projection.

Again, there are fewer alternatives in the organization in terms of pitching. The aforementioned Marcos Molina (108.1 IP, 101 ERA-, 1.3 zWAR) isn’t the club’s top prospect but is the most ready for the majors, according to the projections here. Josh Smoker (70.1, 87, 0.9) is absent from the depth chart here but would be an asset in the bullpen, it seems. Ben Rowen (60.2, 86, 0.8) left as a minor-league free agent but is also well acquitted by ZiPS.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.