2018 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
When the Mariners took Kyle Seager (638 PA, 4.4 zWAR) in the third round of the 2009 draft, one could have been excused for assuming that the club had acquired him largely to play the role of Dustin Ackley’s Friend. While both players had served as starters on three consecutive College World Series teams at North Carolina, it was Ackley who was considered the real prospect, going second overall to Seattle in the same draft. Indeed, Seager was ranked by Baseball America just 30th among Mariners prospects during that next offseason — a reflection of industry opinion. Eight-plus years later, however, Ackley has become a journeyman, while Seager has become, if not the face of the franchise, then at least its metronome.

Complementing Seager on the current iteration of the Mariners is Robinson Cano (614, 2.9) and a collection largely of average talent. Indeed, ZiPS calls for five hitters — Nelson Cruz (574, 2.2), Dee Gordon (663, 2.3), Mitch Haniger (517, 2.1), Jean Segura (634, 2.1), and Mike Zunino (474, 2.1) — to produce a WAR figure within a half-win of 2.0 on either side. Recent acquisition and prospective first baseman Ryon Healy (619, -0.1) represents the weak link of the starting lineup according to Dan Szymborski’s computer.

Pitchers
Reached for comment regarding the projections below, newest FanGraphs employee and Mariners fan/prisoner Meg Rowley responded with an emoji that, out of deference to the more sensitive of this site’s readers, won’t be reproduced here. Of the pitchers specifically, she writes, “[T]his… staff is the saddest bunch of ‘Wait, him?’s plus James Paxton (134.1 IP, 2.9 zWAR) I’ve done seen.” Rowley’s point forces one to confront the reality of present-day Felix Hernandez (124.0, 1.4), proving once again that reality is best kept at arm’s length.

The bullpen, meanwhile, is quite strong relative to the rotation. Edwin Diaz (69.0 IP, 77 ERA-, 1.6) will close games, but James Pazos (53.2, 84, 0.7), David Phelps (57.2, 85, 0.8), and Nick Vincent (60.1, 85, 0.8) are all well equipped to handle high-leverage innings. Meanwhile, if the forecast assessed to Juan Nicasio (84.1, 94, 0.9) appears pessimistic on a per-inning basis, note that ZiPS calls for him to make five starts. His rates, presumably, would skew more impressive were he projected exclusively as a reliever.

Bench/Prospects
After recording a 116 wRC+ in 77 April plate appearances, Taylor Motter (461 PA, 1.2 zWAR) was markedly less productive over the remainder of the 2017 season, ultimately posting a negative WAR. ZiPS suggests he’s a capable depth piece, however. Rule 5 selection Mike Ford (496, 1.1), meanwhile, receives the top projection of the Mariners’ rookie-eligible types. Named both the player and pitcher of the year for the Ivy League in 2013, Ford was drafted away from the Yankees.

Of the pitchers omitted from the depth-chart image below, Nick Rumbelow (46.0 IP, 84 ERA-, 0.6 zWAR) and Tony Zych (47.2, 81, 0.8) earn the top forecasts, giving the club enviable depth in the bullpen.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.