2017 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Even without the benefit yet of having acquired new talent through free agency, the 2017 edition of the Nationals looks strong. There are promising young field players in Bryce Harper (5.1 zWAR), Anthony Rendon (4.1), and Trea Turner (4.4), while all five members of the likely Opening Day rotation earn a projection of 2.5 wins or better.

The club’s greatest weakness appears to come in the form of two previous strengths: Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman. Expected to earn about $35 million between them in 2017, they’re projected to produce roughly zero wins. Of course, that’s oversimplifying matters: players are often compensated for wins on the back end of a deal that they probably supplied at the beginning of it. That doesn’t change the situation facing the Nats, however — namely, that left field and first base might offer little for the club this next season.

Pitchers
Washington starters recorded the second-highest collective WAR among all rotations in 2016 — and finished behind the first-place Mets by a more or less negligible figure. The five main constituents of last year’s group all return in 2017 and appear capable of approximating their 2016 effort. Indeed, the sum of their projected win figures (17.2 zWAR) is just slightly less than what the Cubs produced as a group this year.

As for the bullpen, the departure of midseason acquisition Mark Melancon leaves them without a proper relief ace. That said, Shawn Kelley remains a competent bullpen arm. Having recorded at least 50 innings and a 30% strikeout rate each of the past four seasons, the right-hander is forecast to make 2017 his fifth such campaign. Sammy Solis (76 ERA-) and Blake Treinen (82 ERA-) also remain capable options.

Bench/Prospects
A rookie in 2016, Trea Turner appears to be a candidate to improve on a three-win season. Unsurprisingly, the combination of his line-drive approach and elite footspeed, Turner is projected to record the highest BABIP on the club (.346) by over 20 points.

In terms of actual rookie-eligible players, the club features a promising collection of catchers (Spencer Kieboom, Raudy Read, Pedro Severino) but no other field players who (like Turner last year) appear ready to contribute immediately. Lucas Giolito (1.9 zWAR), meanwhile, is one of four young pitchers — along with Erick Fedde, Reynaldo Lopez, and Austin Voth — projected to record at least a win.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.