2017 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals
After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Batters
Even without the benefit yet of having acquired new talent through free agency, the 2017 edition of the Nationals looks strong. There are promising young field players in Bryce Harper (5.1 zWAR), Anthony Rendon (4.1), and Trea Turner (4.4), while all five members of the likely Opening Day rotation earn a projection of 2.5 wins or better.
The club’s greatest weakness appears to come in the form of two previous strengths: Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman. Expected to earn about $35 million between them in 2017, they’re projected to produce roughly zero wins. Of course, that’s oversimplifying matters: players are often compensated for wins on the back end of a deal that they probably supplied at the beginning of it. That doesn’t change the situation facing the Nats, however — namely, that left field and first base might offer little for the club this next season.
Pitchers
Washington starters recorded the second-highest collective WAR among all rotations in 2016 — and finished behind the first-place Mets by a more or less negligible figure. The five main constituents of last year’s group all return in 2017 and appear capable of approximating their 2016 effort. Indeed, the sum of their projected win figures (17.2 zWAR) is just slightly less than what the Cubs produced as a group this year.
As for the bullpen, the departure of midseason acquisition Mark Melancon leaves them without a proper relief ace. That said, Shawn Kelley remains a competent bullpen arm. Having recorded at least 50 innings and a 30% strikeout rate each of the past four seasons, the right-hander is forecast to make 2017 his fifth such campaign. Sammy Solis (76 ERA-) and Blake Treinen (82 ERA-) also remain capable options.
Bench/Prospects
A rookie in 2016, Trea Turner appears to be a candidate to improve on a three-win season. Unsurprisingly, the combination of his line-drive approach and elite footspeed, Turner is projected to record the highest BABIP on the club (.346) by over 20 points.
In terms of actual rookie-eligible players, the club features a promising collection of catchers (Spencer Kieboom, Raudy Read, Pedro Severino) but no other field players who (like Turner last year) appear ready to contribute immediately. Lucas Giolito (1.9 zWAR), meanwhile, is one of four young pitchers — along with Erick Fedde, Reynaldo Lopez, and Austin Voth — projected to record at least a win.
Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryce Harper | L | 24 | RF | 600 | 88 | 136 | 26 | 2 | 29 | 86 | 14 | 8 |
Trea Turner | R | 24 | CF | 594 | 77 | 154 | 27 | 10 | 14 | 66 | 35 | 7 |
Anthony Rendon | R | 27 | 3B | 587 | 80 | 140 | 33 | 3 | 17 | 70 | 10 | 4 |
Daniel Murphy | L | 32 | 2B | 586 | 78 | 165 | 39 | 4 | 16 | 84 | 9 | 3 |
Wilson Ramos | R | 29 | C | 465 | 44 | 118 | 19 | 0 | 17 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Danny Espinosa | B | 30 | SS | 475 | 52 | 91 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 7 | 2 |
Raudy Read | R | 23 | C | 420 | 44 | 99 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 43 | 5 | 4 |
Pedro Severino | R | 23 | C | 382 | 37 | 92 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 3 | 4 |
Wilmer Difo | B | 25 | SS | 331 | 37 | 78 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
Spencer Kieboom | R | 26 | C | 306 | 29 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
Brian Goodwin | L | 26 | CF | 469 | 48 | 97 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 47 | 10 | 5 |
Michael A. Taylor | R | 26 | CF | 470 | 50 | 97 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 22 | 6 |
Stephen Drew | L | 34 | 2B | 295 | 30 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 1 |
Ben Revere | L | 29 | CF | 508 | 63 | 133 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 34 | 26 | 6 |
Andrew Stevenson | L | 23 | CF | 566 | 56 | 134 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 40 | 31 | 15 |
Matt Skole | L | 27 | 1B | 542 | 62 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 65 | 2 | 1 |
Jose Lobaton | B | 32 | C | 164 | 14 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Heisey | R | 32 | LF | 249 | 31 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 1 |
Scott Sizemore | R | 32 | 2B | 272 | 30 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 2 | 0 |
Brian Jeroloman | L | 32 | C | 171 | 15 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
Matt den Dekker | L | 29 | LF | 434 | 47 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 12 | 4 |
Rafael Bautista | R | 24 | CF | 510 | 52 | 119 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 40 | 9 |
Adrian Sanchez | R | 26 | 3B | 380 | 33 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 3 |
Brandon Snyder | R | 30 | RF | 246 | 27 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 2 | 0 |
Jason Martinson | R | 28 | 3B | 506 | 47 | 89 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 9 | 2 |
Jayson Werth | R | 38 | LF | 466 | 60 | 95 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 3 | 1 |
Ryan Zimmerman | R | 32 | 1B | 413 | 48 | 89 | 20 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 2 | 1 |
Drew Ward | L | 22 | 3B | 491 | 50 | 99 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 48 | 1 | 2 |
Osvaldo Abreu | R | 23 | SS | 552 | 58 | 117 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 16 | 12 |
Clint Robinson | L | 32 | 1B | 324 | 33 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Jose Marmolejos | L | 24 | 1B | 502 | 52 | 111 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 2 |
Neftali Soto | R | 28 | 1B | 392 | 37 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
Jose Lozada | S | 31 | 2B | 160 | 12 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 2 |
Drew Vettleson | L | 25 | RF | 344 | 29 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 4 |
Steve Lombardozzi | S | 28 | 2B | 326 | 28 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | 2 |
Caleb Ramsey | L | 28 | RF | 483 | 44 | 106 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 8 | 3 |
***
Player | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryce Harper | 600 | 17.3% | 20.7% | .241 | .316 | .280 | .406 | .521 | .388 |
Trea Turner | 594 | 6.9% | 22.1% | .163 | .346 | .282 | .331 | .445 | .347 |
Anthony Rendon | 587 | 9.4% | 17.9% | .173 | .305 | .270 | .343 | .443 | .342 |
Daniel Murphy | 586 | 5.6% | 10.8% | .175 | .317 | .304 | .345 | .479 | .347 |
Wilson Ramos | 465 | 5.6% | 16.1% | .161 | .292 | .272 | .312 | .433 | .316 |
Danny Espinosa | 475 | 7.6% | 29.5% | .151 | .285 | .217 | .297 | .368 | .284 |
Raudy Read | 420 | 5.5% | 17.6% | .125 | .292 | .253 | .298 | .378 | .298 |
Pedro Severino | 382 | 5.5% | 16.8% | .087 | .303 | .261 | .303 | .348 | .289 |
Wilmer Difo | 331 | 4.5% | 19.9% | .112 | .302 | .251 | .290 | .363 | .294 |
Spencer Kieboom | 306 | 7.8% | 21.2% | .098 | .294 | .237 | .301 | .335 | .283 |
Brian Goodwin | 469 | 8.5% | 29.0% | .133 | .312 | .229 | .298 | .362 | .295 |
Michael A. Taylor | 470 | 7.4% | 33.4% | .142 | .322 | .226 | .288 | .368 | .296 |
Stephen Drew | 295 | 9.2% | 20.3% | .187 | .251 | .225 | .299 | .412 | .305 |
Ben Revere | 508 | 4.1% | 8.5% | .071 | .301 | .278 | .312 | .349 | .302 |
Andrew Stevenson | 566 | 5.5% | 19.1% | .076 | .313 | .254 | .298 | .330 | .296 |
Matt Skole | 542 | 10.9% | 29.3% | .174 | .296 | .229 | .315 | .403 | .312 |
Jose Lobaton | 164 | 9.1% | 22.6% | .116 | .280 | .226 | .301 | .342 | .278 |
Chris Heisey | 249 | 9.2% | 25.7% | .182 | .264 | .223 | .302 | .405 | .306 |
Scott Sizemore | 272 | 10.7% | 25.4% | .118 | .291 | .224 | .311 | .342 | .290 |
Brian Jeroloman | 171 | 11.7% | 26.3% | .069 | .287 | .205 | .304 | .274 | .263 |
Matt den Dekker | 434 | 8.1% | 26.3% | .131 | .292 | .224 | .293 | .355 | .293 |
Rafael Bautista | 510 | 5.3% | 18.6% | .063 | .309 | .253 | .299 | .316 | .293 |
Adrian Sanchez | 380 | 3.9% | 16.3% | .070 | .288 | .244 | .279 | .314 | .263 |
Brandon Snyder | 246 | 5.7% | 32.9% | .170 | .312 | .227 | .276 | .397 | .291 |
Jason Martinson | 506 | 6.7% | 40.3% | .143 | .305 | .193 | .256 | .336 | .263 |
Jayson Werth | 466 | 10.3% | 23.6% | .154 | .278 | .232 | .313 | .386 | .308 |
Ryan Zimmerman | 413 | 7.5% | 21.5% | .163 | .273 | .238 | .295 | .401 | .300 |
Drew Ward | 491 | 7.7% | 33.6% | .130 | .320 | .221 | .287 | .351 | .281 |
Osvaldo Abreu | 552 | 6.7% | 24.3% | .095 | .302 | .232 | .289 | .327 | .286 |
Clint Robinson | 324 | 9.3% | 18.8% | .122 | .283 | .243 | .318 | .365 | .298 |
Jose Marmolejos | 502 | 6.8% | 25.7% | .137 | .313 | .242 | .297 | .379 | .292 |
Neftali Soto | 392 | 5.1% | 22.2% | .100 | .300 | .242 | .283 | .342 | .272 |
Jose Lozada | 160 | 5.6% | 24.4% | .034 | .290 | .214 | .263 | .248 | .232 |
Drew Vettleson | 344 | 5.5% | 36.0% | .107 | .292 | .194 | .240 | .301 | .241 |
Steve Lombardozzi | 326 | 4.9% | 13.2% | .046 | .289 | .250 | .288 | .296 | .260 |
Caleb Ramsey | 483 | 6.6% | 20.5% | .069 | .298 | .238 | .289 | .307 | .266 |
***
Player | PA | RC/27 | OPS+ | Def | zWAR | No.1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryce Harper | 600 | 7.9 | 147 | 1 | 5.1 | Rusty Staub |
Trea Turner | 594 | 6.0 | 106 | 6 | 4.4 | Adam Jones |
Anthony Rendon | 587 | 5.7 | 110 | 6 | 4.1 | Todd Zeile |
Daniel Murphy | 586 | 6.5 | 119 | -7 | 3.2 | Charlie Gehringer |
Wilson Ramos | 465 | 5.0 | 98 | 1 | 2.9 | Shanty Hogan |
Danny Espinosa | 475 | 3.8 | 78 | 3 | 1.5 | Cody Ransom |
Raudy Read | 420 | 4.0 | 80 | -1 | 1.4 | Neil Wilson |
Pedro Severino | 382 | 3.7 | 75 | 1 | 1.2 | Roger Hansen |
Wilmer Difo | 331 | 4.1 | 75 | 2 | 1.1 | Bill Spiers |
Spencer Kieboom | 306 | 3.5 | 71 | 2 | 1.1 | Dave Parrish |
Brian Goodwin | 469 | 3.8 | 76 | 2 | 1.0 | Randy Salava |
Michael A. Taylor | 470 | 3.9 | 75 | 1 | 1.0 | Mario Encarnacion |
Stephen Drew | 295 | 4.3 | 89 | 0 | 1.0 | Marlon Anderson |
Ben Revere | 508 | 4.4 | 78 | -2 | 0.9 | Lance Johnson |
Andrew Stevenson | 566 | 3.6 | 69 | 3 | 0.6 | Trench Davis |
Matt Skole | 542 | 4.4 | 92 | 0 | 0.5 | Damon Minor |
Jose Lobaton | 164 | 3.6 | 73 | 0 | 0.5 | Keith McDonald |
Chris Heisey | 249 | 4.3 | 88 | 1 | 0.4 | Darrell Whitmore |
Scott Sizemore | 272 | 3.8 | 76 | -1 | 0.4 | Dave Matranga |
Brian Jeroloman | 171 | 2.7 | 57 | 2 | 0.4 | Clay Dalrymple |
Matt den Dekker | 434 | 3.7 | 73 | 4 | 0.3 | Nate Murphy |
Rafael Bautista | 510 | 3.9 | 66 | -3 | 0.3 | Leo Sutherland |
Adrian Sanchez | 380 | 3.2 | 59 | 5 | 0.3 | Jon Shave |
Brandon Snyder | 246 | 3.9 | 79 | 2 | 0.2 | Darrell Whitmore |
Jason Martinson | 506 | 3.0 | 58 | 5 | 0.2 | Kody Kirkland |
Jayson Werth | 466 | 4.3 | 87 | -6 | 0.0 | Bob Brenly |
Ryan Zimmerman | 413 | 4.2 | 85 | -1 | -0.1 | Chris Widger |
Drew Ward | 491 | 3.4 | 71 | -6 | -0.2 | Steve Mena |
Osvaldo Abreu | 552 | 3.2 | 66 | -6 | -0.2 | Jerry Bertolani |
Clint Robinson | 324 | 4.1 | 83 | -2 | -0.3 | Ryan McGuire |
Jose Marmolejos | 502 | 3.9 | 80 | 0 | -0.5 | Brandon Gemoll |
Neftali Soto | 392 | 3.5 | 67 | 2 | -0.7 | Glenn Carpenter |
Jose Lozada | 160 | 2.1 | 39 | -1 | -0.7 | Pablo Martinez |
Drew Vettleson | 344 | 2.3 | 44 | 5 | -1.1 | Mike Conroy |
Steve Lombardozzi | 326 | 3.1 | 58 | -8 | -1.2 | Bien Figueroa |
Caleb Ramsey | 483 | 3.2 | 61 | -5 | -1.6 | Ron Gooch |
***
Player | T | Age | G | GS | IP | K | BB | HR | H | R | ER |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Scherzer | R | 32 | 31 | 31 | 210.7 | 251 | 56 | 22 | 169 | 75 | 70 |
Stephen Strasburg | R | 28 | 27 | 27 | 159.3 | 189 | 38 | 17 | 136 | 59 | 55 |
Tanner Roark | R | 30 | 28 | 28 | 170.7 | 126 | 50 | 20 | 165 | 78 | 73 |
Gio Gonzalez | L | 31 | 29 | 29 | 163.3 | 156 | 58 | 15 | 157 | 75 | 70 |
Joe Ross | R | 24 | 27 | 26 | 133.0 | 120 | 35 | 13 | 127 | 57 | 53 |
Mark Melancon | R | 32 | 70 | 0 | 65.0 | 62 | 13 | 5 | 55 | 19 | 18 |
Lucas Giolito | R | 22 | 20 | 20 | 136.0 | 124 | 49 | 17 | 130 | 65 | 61 |
Erick Fedde | R | 24 | 24 | 23 | 121.3 | 105 | 34 | 16 | 123 | 60 | 56 |
Austin Voth | R | 25 | 26 | 24 | 136.7 | 117 | 52 | 18 | 134 | 70 | 65 |
Reynaldo Lopez | R | 23 | 26 | 23 | 128.7 | 126 | 51 | 18 | 126 | 68 | 64 |
Jaron Long | R | 25 | 24 | 21 | 129.3 | 82 | 29 | 17 | 141 | 71 | 66 |
A.J. Cole | R | 25 | 26 | 25 | 136.0 | 114 | 42 | 24 | 140 | 75 | 70 |
Jonathan Papelbon | R | 36 | 47 | 0 | 46.0 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 43 | 18 | 17 |
Shawn Kelley | R | 33 | 58 | 0 | 51.0 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 40 | 19 | 18 |
Blake Treinen | R | 29 | 68 | 0 | 70.7 | 68 | 31 | 6 | 63 | 29 | 27 |
Mat Latos | R | 29 | 23 | 20 | 108.0 | 78 | 38 | 13 | 110 | 59 | 55 |
Trevor Gott | R | 24 | 59 | 0 | 64.3 | 48 | 24 | 5 | 62 | 28 | 26 |
Taylor Hill | R | 28 | 26 | 23 | 137.0 | 82 | 35 | 21 | 153 | 78 | 73 |
Aaron Laffey | L | 32 | 26 | 14 | 99.3 | 62 | 34 | 12 | 108 | 55 | 51 |
Mitch Lively | R | 31 | 40 | 6 | 67.0 | 63 | 30 | 7 | 63 | 33 | 31 |
Matt Belisle | R | 37 | 43 | 0 | 46.7 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 46 | 19 | 18 |
Yusmeiro Petit | R | 32 | 36 | 3 | 72.3 | 64 | 17 | 11 | 72 | 35 | 33 |
Matt Grace | L | 28 | 51 | 0 | 61.0 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 62 | 28 | 26 |
Oliver Perez | L | 35 | 60 | 0 | 42.0 | 47 | 17 | 4 | 37 | 18 | 17 |
Sammy Solis | L | 28 | 43 | 0 | 51.0 | 55 | 20 | 5 | 44 | 19 | 18 |
Marc Rzepczynski | L | 31 | 69 | 0 | 43.7 | 44 | 20 | 3 | 39 | 19 | 18 |
Aaron Barrett | R | 29 | 40 | 0 | 32.7 | 35 | 11 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 13 |
Koda Glover | R | 24 | 53 | 0 | 68.7 | 71 | 18 | 9 | 62 | 30 | 28 |
Rafael Martin | R | 33 | 51 | 0 | 53.0 | 59 | 22 | 8 | 47 | 26 | 24 |
Sean Burnett | L | 34 | 36 | 0 | 31.0 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 15 | 14 |
Sam Runion | R | 28 | 37 | 0 | 54.3 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 55 | 28 | 26 |
Nick Masset | R | 35 | 42 | 0 | 39.7 | 31 | 20 | 4 | 41 | 22 | 21 |
Justin De Fratus | R | 29 | 54 | 0 | 66.3 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 68 | 36 | 34 |
Bryan Harper | L | 27 | 41 | 0 | 46.7 | 37 | 24 | 7 | 48 | 28 | 26 |
Boone Whiting | R | 27 | 22 | 19 | 106.3 | 65 | 43 | 19 | 121 | 72 | 67 |
***
Player | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | ERA- | FIP- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Scherzer | 210.7 | 857 | 29.3% | 6.5% | .282 | 2.99 | 3.03 | 72 | 73 |
Stephen Strasburg | 159.3 | 652 | 29.0% | 5.8% | .294 | 3.11 | 2.95 | 75 | 72 |
Tanner Roark | 170.7 | 727 | 17.3% | 6.9% | .277 | 3.85 | 4.20 | 92 | 102 |
Gio Gonzalez | 163.3 | 705 | 22.1% | 8.2% | .302 | 3.86 | 3.61 | 93 | 87 |
Joe Ross | 133.0 | 561 | 21.4% | 6.2% | .295 | 3.59 | 3.53 | 86 | 86 |
Mark Melancon | 65.0 | 263 | 23.6% | 4.9% | .276 | 2.49 | 2.93 | 60 | 71 |
Lucas Giolito | 136.0 | 587 | 21.1% | 8.3% | .288 | 4.04 | 4.18 | 97 | 101 |
Erick Fedde | 121.3 | 521 | 20.2% | 6.5% | .298 | 4.15 | 4.18 | 99 | 101 |
Austin Voth | 136.7 | 596 | 19.6% | 8.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 4.44 | 103 | 107 |
Reynaldo Lopez | 128.7 | 563 | 22.4% | 9.1% | .297 | 4.48 | 4.31 | 107 | 104 |
Jaron Long | 129.3 | 558 | 14.7% | 5.2% | .293 | 4.59 | 4.44 | 110 | 107 |
A.J. Cole | 136.0 | 590 | 19.3% | 7.1% | .288 | 4.63 | 4.84 | 111 | 117 |
Jonathan Papelbon | 46.0 | 194 | 20.6% | 6.7% | .286 | 3.33 | 3.77 | 80 | 91 |
Shawn Kelley | 51.0 | 208 | 31.3% | 7.2% | .279 | 3.18 | 2.87 | 76 | 70 |
Blake Treinen | 70.7 | 306 | 22.2% | 10.1% | .285 | 3.44 | 3.47 | 82 | 84 |
Mat Latos | 108.0 | 472 | 16.5% | 8.1% | .284 | 4.58 | 4.39 | 110 | 106 |
Trevor Gott | 64.3 | 279 | 17.2% | 8.6% | .288 | 3.64 | 3.87 | 87 | 94 |
Taylor Hill | 137.0 | 599 | 13.7% | 5.8% | .291 | 4.80 | 4.90 | 115 | 119 |
Aaron Laffey | 99.3 | 440 | 14.1% | 7.7% | .294 | 4.62 | 4.63 | 111 | 112 |
Mitch Lively | 67.0 | 294 | 21.4% | 10.2% | .295 | 4.16 | 4.14 | 100 | 100 |
Matt Belisle | 46.7 | 198 | 17.7% | 6.1% | .287 | 3.47 | 3.51 | 83 | 85 |
Yusmeiro Petit | 72.3 | 306 | 20.9% | 5.6% | .285 | 4.11 | 3.98 | 99 | 96 |
Matt Grace | 61.0 | 264 | 16.3% | 7.2% | .294 | 3.84 | 3.83 | 92 | 93 |
Oliver Perez | 42.0 | 180 | 26.1% | 9.4% | .311 | 3.64 | 3.69 | 87 | 89 |
Sammy Solis | 51.0 | 217 | 25.3% | 9.2% | .289 | 3.18 | 3.48 | 76 | 84 |
Marc Rzepczynski | 43.7 | 190 | 23.1% | 10.5% | .300 | 3.71 | 3.30 | 89 | 80 |
Aaron Barrett | 32.7 | 138 | 25.3% | 8.0% | .299 | 3.58 | 3.43 | 86 | 83 |
Koda Glover | 68.7 | 286 | 24.8% | 6.3% | .286 | 3.67 | 3.70 | 88 | 89 |
Rafael Martin | 53.0 | 228 | 25.9% | 9.6% | .285 | 4.08 | 4.17 | 98 | 101 |
Sean Burnett | 31.0 | 134 | 17.2% | 7.5% | .289 | 4.06 | 3.93 | 97 | 95 |
Sam Runion | 54.3 | 238 | 17.2% | 8.4% | .292 | 4.31 | 4.27 | 103 | 103 |
Nick Masset | 39.7 | 180 | 17.2% | 11.1% | .303 | 4.76 | 4.67 | 114 | 113 |
Justin De Fratus | 66.3 | 293 | 16.7% | 8.9% | .291 | 4.61 | 4.54 | 110 | 110 |
Bryan Harper | 46.7 | 212 | 17.4% | 11.3% | .291 | 5.01 | 5.22 | 120 | 126 |
Boone Whiting | 106.3 | 483 | 13.5% | 8.9% | .292 | 5.67 | 5.67 | 136 | 137 |
***
Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | zWAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Scherzer | 210.7 | 10.72 | 2.39 | 0.94 | 134 | 5.5 | Roger Clemens |
Stephen Strasburg | 159.3 | 10.68 | 2.15 | 0.96 | 129 | 3.9 | Curt Schilling |
Tanner Roark | 170.7 | 6.64 | 2.64 | 1.05 | 104 | 2.7 | Kirk McCaskill |
Gio Gonzalez | 163.3 | 8.60 | 3.20 | 0.83 | 104 | 2.6 | Shawn Estes |
Joe Ross | 133.0 | 8.12 | 2.37 | 0.88 | 112 | 2.5 | Carl Pavano |
Mark Melancon | 65.0 | 8.58 | 1.80 | 0.69 | 161 | 2.0 | Carl Willis |
Lucas Giolito | 136.0 | 8.21 | 3.24 | 1.13 | 99 | 1.9 | Freddy Garcia |
Erick Fedde | 121.3 | 7.79 | 2.52 | 1.19 | 97 | 1.5 | Dicky Gonzalez |
Austin Voth | 136.7 | 7.70 | 3.42 | 1.19 | 94 | 1.4 | Jeff Bittiger |
Reynaldo Lopez | 128.7 | 8.81 | 3.57 | 1.26 | 90 | 1.0 | Wascar Serrano |
Jaron Long | 129.3 | 5.71 | 2.02 | 1.18 | 87 | 0.9 | Tim Kester |
A.J. Cole | 136.0 | 7.54 | 2.78 | 1.59 | 87 | 0.8 | Rich DeLucia |
Jonathan Papelbon | 46.0 | 7.83 | 2.54 | 0.98 | 121 | 0.8 | LaTroy Hawkins |
Shawn Kelley | 51.0 | 11.47 | 2.65 | 1.06 | 126 | 0.8 | Kiko Calero |
Blake Treinen | 70.7 | 8.66 | 3.95 | 0.76 | 117 | 0.7 | Jose Paniagua |
Mat Latos | 108.0 | 6.50 | 3.17 | 1.08 | 88 | 0.7 | Dennis Burtt |
Trevor Gott | 64.3 | 6.72 | 3.36 | 0.70 | 110 | 0.6 | Lloyd Allen |
Taylor Hill | 137.0 | 5.39 | 2.30 | 1.38 | 84 | 0.5 | Brad Ziegler |
Aaron Laffey | 99.3 | 5.62 | 3.08 | 1.09 | 87 | 0.5 | Doug Johns |
Mitch Lively | 67.0 | 8.46 | 4.03 | 0.94 | 96 | 0.5 | Marc Wilkins |
Matt Belisle | 46.7 | 6.75 | 2.31 | 0.77 | 116 | 0.4 | Paul Quantrill |
Yusmeiro Petit | 72.3 | 7.97 | 2.12 | 1.37 | 98 | 0.4 | Bob Wells |
Matt Grace | 61.0 | 6.34 | 2.80 | 0.74 | 105 | 0.3 | Dave Von Ohlen |
Oliver Perez | 42.0 | 10.07 | 3.64 | 0.86 | 110 | 0.3 | Tim Byrdak |
Sammy Solis | 51.0 | 9.71 | 3.53 | 0.88 | 126 | 0.3 | Jeff Little |
Marc Rzepczynski | 43.7 | 9.06 | 4.12 | 0.62 | 108 | 0.3 | Marshall Bridges |
Aaron Barrett | 32.7 | 9.63 | 3.03 | 0.83 | 112 | 0.3 | Jay Powell |
Koda Glover | 68.7 | 9.30 | 2.36 | 1.18 | 109 | 0.2 | Santos Hernandez |
Rafael Martin | 53.0 | 10.02 | 3.74 | 1.36 | 98 | 0.1 | Frank LaCorte |
Sean Burnett | 31.0 | 6.68 | 2.90 | 0.87 | 99 | 0.0 | Morrie Martin |
Sam Runion | 54.3 | 6.80 | 3.31 | 0.99 | 93 | 0.0 | Scott Munter |
Nick Masset | 39.7 | 7.03 | 4.53 | 0.91 | 84 | -0.2 | Ernie Camacho |
Justin De Fratus | 66.3 | 6.65 | 3.53 | 1.09 | 87 | -0.3 | Weston Weber |
Bryan Harper | 46.7 | 7.13 | 4.63 | 1.35 | 80 | -0.4 | Carl Keliipuleole |
Boone Whiting | 106.3 | 5.50 | 3.64 | 1.61 | 71 | -0.8 | Kirk McDonald |
***
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Looking at Harpers #1 player comp, That does not look promising
Well at least it wasn’t Rusty Kuntz.
Well, there isn’t many comps for someone that young and productive. If you look at Staub’s age 25-27 seasons, I think the Nats will take that for the next three years.
Seems like a very good outcome to me.
From age 24 (Harper’s current age) to age 32, Staub was worth 30 wins or 3.7 WAR/162 games. He had a 134 wRC+ during that span.
Also FanGraphs has Staub as a pretty poor defender (-57 FLD for his career). Harper is much better (+17.4 for his career).
So a 134 wRC+ OF with above average defense for the next 9-10 years? That’s like Jim Edmonds or Al Kaline right? Would be a swell outcome if I were a Nats fan (or whichever team he signs with in a few years).
Wasn’t his top comp last year Ted Williams?