2018 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks by Carson Cistulli January 31, 2018 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. ZiPS Projections 20182017ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters A perfectly average group of field players would produce something like 16 wins collectively in a season (that is, two wins times eight starters). The group of D-backs field players on the depth-chart image below is projected for roughly 15 wins collectively in 2018. By one definition, at least, this is basically an average offense. By another, it’s not at all. Of the club’s eight likely starters, only one — Ketel Marte (599 PA, 1.7 zWAR) — receives a wins forecast that would round to 2.0. Paul Goldschmidt (638, 4.1), Jake Lamb (589, 2.5), and A.J. Pollock (510, 3.4) occupy one mode of this hypothetical distribution graph; the rest of the starting eight (minus Marte), the other. The weakness for a club constructed thusly is its exposure to risk: an injury to one of the teams leaders can have catastrophic effects. This was the case for the 2016 edition of the D-backs, for example, when A.J. Pollock was unable to make his season debut until late August. The strength for such a club, meanwhile, is the ease of upgrading the roster. In the case of Arizona, finding an alternative to Yasmany Tomas (426, 0.4) in left field might represent the most expedient means to such an upgrade. Pitchers The D-backs rotation was objectively one of the strongest in the majors this past season, producing the second-highest collective WAR figure in the majors. All the principals from last year return to the 2018 iteration of the club. Zack Greinke (175.2 IP, 4.0 zWAR) and Robbie Ray (172.0, 3.9) both profile as frontline starters, while Patrick Corbin (168.0, 2.4), Zack Godley (155.0, 2.7), and Taijuan Walker (156.1, 2.2) each receive an above-average forecast. The projection for Godley, in particular, seems notable. ZiPS calls for the right-hander to retain much of what he exhibited in last year’s breakout. When he was selected seventh overall by Arizona in the 2011 draft, Archie Bradley (75.7 IP, 73 ERA-, 1.7 zWAR) seemed to possess all the requisite tools to succeed as a major-league starter. Last season, he half-realized his potential, providing starter-level production for the D-backs (2.1 FIP-based WAR, 3.4 runs-allowed WAR), just as a reliever. He’ll return to the closer role again this season. Bench/Prospects As has been the case in recent seasons, Arizona employs a number of serviceable infield types. Nick Ahmed (335 PA, 0.8 zWAR), Daniel Descalso (341, -0.1), and Brandon Drury (546, 0.3) all recorded a decent number of major-league plate appearance last season. Domingo Leyba (455, 0.7) and Ildemaro Vargas (547, 0.7) didn’t record as many major-league plate appearances but are qualified to do so in some capacity, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer. Right-hander Shelby Miller (144.0 IP, 99 ERA-, 1.8 zWAR) hasn’t experienced much success since joining the D-backs in a trade that sent both Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson to Atlanta. He’s recovering from a Tommy John procedure at the moment but is forecast to record roughly average numbers when he returns. Jared Miller (67.0 IP, 77 ERA-, 1.2) is of no relation to Shelby and has, in fact, never thrown a major-league pitch. Nevertheless, the giant left-hander does receive the second-best ERA projection among Arizona’s relievers. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Paul Goldschmidt R 30 1B 638 101 153 33 2 31 108 18 5 A.J. Pollock R 30 CF 510 80 136 33 6 16 57 22 6 J.D. Martinez R 30 RF 548 81 142 32 3 39 102 4 1 Jake Lamb L 27 3B 589 79 130 30 6 26 94 5 3 Ketel Marte B 24 SS 599 73 154 32 7 9 54 13 5 Alex Avila L 31 C 331 34 62 12 0 11 36 0 1 David Peralta L 30 RF 530 66 134 27 6 15 61 7 3 Nick Ahmed R 28 SS 335 38 77 14 3 8 32 5 4 Chris Owings R 26 SS 472 53 118 26 5 10 54 16 3 Ildemaro Vargas B 26 2B 547 62 136 27 3 8 50 8 3 Domingo Leyba B 22 SS 455 50 108 24 2 10 46 4 2 Oswaldo Arcia L 27 RF 394 50 86 18 3 21 61 1 1 Michael Perez L 25 C 322 31 64 16 2 6 31 1 2 Cesar Puello R 27 LF 398 51 91 20 2 12 50 15 3 Ramon Flores L 26 RF 445 49 98 20 3 10 49 6 2 Christian Walker R 27 1B 587 75 134 29 4 24 84 3 2 Yasmany Tomas R 27 LF 426 51 110 23 2 21 68 2 2 Chris Herrmann L 30 C 239 31 47 11 2 5 29 4 0 Tony Renda R 27 3B 431 45 104 24 2 3 35 10 4 Brandon Drury R 25 2B 546 55 131 34 2 14 63 2 2 Jeremy Hazelbaker L 30 LF 333 40 70 13 6 11 41 11 3 John Ryan Murphy R 27 C 309 31 66 14 0 7 32 0 0 Carlos Rivero R 30 3B 448 45 101 20 1 13 49 1 1 Kris Negron R 32 SS 346 33 71 15 3 7 32 10 3 Reymond Fuentes L 27 CF 328 33 76 12 3 3 26 15 3 Hank Conger B 30 C 222 21 43 10 1 7 27 0 0 Travis Denker R 32 2B 223 28 48 9 0 7 25 0 0 Daniel Descalso L 31 2B 341 39 70 13 3 7 38 3 1 Kelly Dugan L 27 RF 349 39 74 17 1 11 42 3 1 Ronnie Freeman R 27 C 256 25 54 12 1 3 21 0 1 Jeff Mathis R 35 C 167 12 31 6 1 2 13 1 0 Jamie Westbrook R 23 2B 465 46 112 21 3 9 47 5 3 Jack Reinheimer R 25 SS 562 59 125 22 3 5 43 14 8 Evan Marzilli L 27 CF 456 45 83 14 6 5 32 10 7 Socrates Brito L 25 RF 450 48 104 17 7 10 47 10 4 Alberto Rosario R 31 C 189 15 42 8 0 0 12 2 0 Adam Rosales R 35 SS 283 29 59 13 1 7 34 2 2 Kevin Cron R 25 1B 562 64 119 27 0 24 75 1 0 Gregor Blanco L 34 RF 298 39 65 13 3 4 20 12 3 Angel Franco B 28 2B 239 21 52 10 1 2 16 2 2 Marty Herum R 26 3B 523 49 124 24 3 7 47 3 3 Josh Thole L 31 C 144 10 27 4 0 0 7 0 1 Kevin Medrano L 28 2B 382 36 88 17 2 2 28 4 3 Emilio Bonifacio B 33 CF 315 30 70 11 3 2 23 15 8 Jay Gonzalez L 26 RF 429 39 81 11 3 0 21 22 10 Rudy Flores L 27 LF 440 45 88 20 1 15 49 1 1 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Paul Goldschmidt 638 14.7% 22.4% .244 .334 .287 .395 .531 .384 131 A.J. Pollock 510 7.3% 14.7% .200 .317 .292 .347 .491 .355 112 J.D. Martinez 548 8.9% 26.1% .315 .328 .289 .354 .604 .393 137 Jake Lamb 589 11.5% 26.3% .235 .310 .254 .345 .489 .349 108 Ketel Marte 599 7.2% 13.7% .133 .315 .282 .333 .415 .320 90 Alex Avila 331 16.0% 33.8% .164 .333 .225 .352 .389 .327 94 David Peralta 530 7.4% 17.5% .175 .315 .279 .336 .453 .335 99 Nick Ahmed 335 5.7% 19.4% .142 .289 .248 .294 .390 .291 70 Chris Owings 472 4.9% 21.8% .150 .326 .268 .305 .417 .306 80 Ildemaro Vargas 547 4.9% 9.5% .112 .283 .268 .308 .381 .297 74 Domingo Leyba 455 6.6% 17.1% .138 .293 .257 .308 .395 .303 78 Oswaldo Arcia 394 8.1% 28.9% .247 .294 .244 .315 .491 .337 101 Michael Perez 322 8.1% 27.3% .131 .291 .220 .287 .351 .278 62 Cesar Puello 398 7.0% 24.6% .169 .320 .256 .330 .425 .325 93 Ramon Flores 445 10.8% 18.0% .145 .292 .253 .336 .398 .318 88 Christian Walker 587 7.8% 25.9% .205 .306 .252 .315 .458 .327 94 Yasmany Tomas 426 5.6% 25.1% .225 .326 .275 .317 .500 .343 104 Chris Herrmann 239 9.2% 25.9% .141 .284 .221 .297 .362 .286 67 Tony Renda 431 6.0% 11.6% .094 .293 .263 .313 .357 .292 71 Brandon Drury 546 5.5% 20.1% .158 .302 .258 .304 .416 .307 81 Jeremy Hazelbaker 333 8.1% 31.5% .193 .317 .233 .297 .427 .306 80 John Ryan Murphy 309 6.8% 18.8% .124 .266 .233 .282 .357 .276 61 Carlos Rivero 448 4.9% 23.2% .145 .286 .240 .277 .386 .282 64 Kris Negron 346 5.5% 26.0% .134 .292 .226 .282 .360 .278 62 Reymond Fuentes 328 5.8% 21.3% .090 .317 .252 .302 .342 .280 63 Hank Conger 222 8.1% 25.2% .165 .259 .215 .281 .380 .284 66 Travis Denker 223 9.0% 21.5% .152 .283 .244 .318 .396 .310 83 Daniel Descalso 341 11.1% 22.0% .134 .289 .235 .324 .369 .302 78 Kelly Dugan 349 6.3% 28.9% .165 .306 .235 .301 .400 .301 77 Ronnie Freeman 256 5.9% 24.6% .097 .295 .228 .275 .325 .260 50 Jeff Mathis 167 6.0% 31.1% .091 .287 .201 .253 .292 .237 35 Jamie Westbrook 465 3.4% 13.1% .123 .276 .255 .288 .377 .285 67 Jack Reinheimer 562 6.6% 19.8% .083 .297 .242 .295 .326 .273 58 Evan Marzilli 456 10.1% 28.9% .102 .291 .206 .292 .308 .267 55 Socrates Brito 450 4.4% 23.3% .143 .298 .243 .276 .386 .281 64 Alberto Rosario 189 4.2% 17.5% .045 .288 .236 .271 .281 .244 40 Adam Rosales 283 6.0% 29.3% .140 .304 .229 .281 .368 .279 62 Kevin Cron 562 5.9% 30.1% .191 .288 .230 .281 .421 .297 74 Gregor Blanco 298 10.7% 20.8% .118 .308 .247 .330 .365 .304 79 Angel Franco 239 4.6% 17.2% .081 .276 .233 .268 .314 .252 45 Marty Herum 523 3.4% 19.1% .103 .298 .251 .280 .354 .272 58 Josh Thole 144 8.3% 18.1% .031 .260 .209 .275 .240 .235 34 Kevin Medrano 382 5.2% 17.3% .077 .302 .251 .293 .328 .272 58 Emilio Bonifacio 315 5.7% 19.0% .080 .298 .243 .286 .323 .265 53 Jay Gonzalez 429 9.6% 30.8% .044 .321 .211 .287 .256 .248 42 Rudy Flores 440 4.8% 38.4% .163 .317 .215 .259 .378 .271 57 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Paul Goldschmidt 638 8.1 140 5 4.1 Derrek Lee A.J. Pollock 510 6.7 116 5 3.4 Ken Landreaux J.D. Martinez 548 8.2 144 -6 3.3 Frank Howard Jake Lamb 589 6.1 115 -4 2.5 Jack Howell Ketel Marte 599 5.3 95 -4 1.7 Tony Fernandez Alex Avila 331 4.7 94 0 1.5 Eddie Taubensee David Peralta 530 5.7 104 1 1.4 David DeJesus Nick Ahmed 335 4.0 77 6 0.8 Jason Bowers Chris Owings 472 4.9 87 -6 0.7 Shawon Dunston Ildemaro Vargas 547 4.4 79 2 0.7 Mark Loretta Domingo Leyba 455 4.4 83 -3 0.7 Brent Butler Oswaldo Arcia 394 5.5 107 -5 0.5 Scott Bryant Michael Perez 322 3.4 66 3 0.4 Andy Skeels Cesar Puello 398 5.4 96 -5 0.4 Jerome Walton Ramon Flores 445 4.9 91 -1 0.4 Jim Gosger Christian Walker 587 5.2 99 -3 0.4 Steve Stanicek Yasmany Tomas 426 5.8 109 -9 0.4 Wil Cordero Chris Herrmann 239 3.9 72 -1 0.3 Randy Brown Tony Renda 431 4.2 75 1 0.3 Mark DeRosa Brandon Drury 546 4.6 86 -6 0.3 Joe Crede Jeremy Hazelbaker 333 4.6 87 2 0.3 Michael Tucker John Ryan Murphy 309 3.5 66 0 0.2 Brandon Marsters Carlos Rivero 448 3.8 71 4 0.2 Jason Wood Kris Negron 346 3.7 67 1 0.2 Kelly Dransfeldt Reymond Fuentes 328 4.1 68 1 0.1 Elijah Bonaparte Hank Conger 222 3.7 71 -3 0.0 Henry Blanco Travis Denker 223 4.5 86 -5 -0.1 Andy Phillips Daniel Descalso 341 4.2 81 -6 -0.1 George Strickland Kelly Dugan 349 4.3 82 -1 -0.1 Brian Brady Ronnie Freeman 256 3.0 56 1 -0.1 Matt Morgan Jeff Mathis 167 2.6 42 2 -0.2 Frank Charles Jamie Westbrook 465 3.9 73 -2 -0.2 Wilton Veras Jack Reinheimer 562 3.4 63 0 -0.3 Wilson Delgado Evan Marzilli 456 3.0 58 4 -0.3 Mark Budzinski Socrates Brito 450 3.8 71 4 -0.4 Trent Oeltjen Alberto Rosario 189 2.8 45 -1 -0.4 Charlie Greene Adam Rosales 283 3.5 68 -4 -0.4 Jason Wood Kevin Cron 562 4.2 80 1 -0.5 Greg Sain Gregor Blanco 298 4.6 82 -7 -0.5 Jeff Davanon Angel Franco 239 2.9 52 1 -0.6 Tom Veryzer Marty Herum 523 3.5 65 0 -0.6 Ricky Bell Josh Thole 144 2.1 37 -3 -0.7 Bob Swift Kevin Medrano 382 3.4 63 -4 -0.8 Ever Magallanes Emilio Bonifacio 315 3.3 59 -4 -0.9 Doug Dascenzo Jay Gonzalez 429 2.6 44 5 -1.4 Darrell Dent Rudy Flores 440 3.3 64 -5 -1.5 Jay Kirkpatrick *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Zack Greinke R 34 28 28 175.7 170 40 22 160 73 68 Robbie Ray L 26 31 31 172.0 231 73 21 145 74 69 Zack Godley R 28 28 26 155.0 165 64 19 144 74 69 Patrick Corbin L 28 31 28 168.0 148 55 23 177 86 80 Taijuan Walker R 25 28 28 156.3 144 52 25 154 81 76 Shelby Miller R 27 26 25 144.0 121 57 19 145 77 72 Archie Bradley R 25 69 0 75.7 89 29 7 64 30 28 Anthony Banda L 24 30 27 150.3 141 62 21 150 82 77 Jared Miller L 24 53 0 67.0 83 31 7 56 28 26 Jake Buchanan R 28 26 18 113.0 59 35 13 135 65 61 Andrew Chafin L 28 69 0 59.3 62 25 5 52 26 24 Randall Delgado R 28 46 3 66.0 64 25 7 63 30 28 Michael Blazek R 29 35 10 77.0 65 35 10 78 41 38 David Hernandez R 33 63 0 55.7 59 18 7 53 25 23 Jorge de la Rosa L 37 34 16 99.7 91 47 16 98 58 54 Rubby de la Rosa R 29 27 18 105.0 107 43 21 107 63 59 Yuhei Nakaushiro L 28 48 0 60.7 51 33 4 58 30 28 Ryan Atkinson R 25 24 24 113.7 114 69 19 115 72 67 Matt Koch R 27 21 16 90.0 51 25 14 106 55 51 Aaron Laffey L 33 21 13 80.7 49 30 11 93 48 45 Fernando Salas R 33 62 0 59.7 57 18 9 61 31 29 Joel Payamps R 24 27 25 135.3 83 45 23 159 87 81 Yoshihisa Hirano R 34 53 0 49.3 46 18 7 50 26 24 T.J. McFarland L 29 44 3 64.7 37 22 7 75 36 34 Louis Coleman R 32 49 0 55.3 59 31 7 52 30 28 Jake Barrett R 26 58 0 54.7 52 28 7 53 30 28 Jimmie Sherfy R 26 54 0 52.7 67 22 11 48 29 27 Taylor Clarke R 25 26 26 127.3 106 48 27 142 83 78 Brad Boxberger R 30 46 0 42.0 59 24 9 36 24 22 Joey Krehbiel R 25 52 0 56.7 65 33 9 53 32 30 Silvino Bracho R 25 58 0 57.0 72 22 12 53 32 30 Bud Jeter R 26 43 0 45.7 42 24 6 47 26 24 Braden Shipley R 26 28 24 137.7 93 53 26 161 91 85 Gabe Speier L 23 38 3 65.7 43 33 8 74 41 38 J.J. Hoover R 30 59 0 54.7 63 30 10 52 32 30 Tyler Pill R 28 22 20 113.7 76 38 23 136 76 71 Albert Suarez R 28 26 15 92.7 73 31 20 105 62 58 Neftali Feliz R 30 53 0 48.3 47 22 9 48 29 27 Ivan Pineyro R 26 24 17 96.0 72 32 20 112 64 60 J.R. Bradley R 26 35 1 41.7 37 22 6 44 26 24 Kris Medlen R 32 18 17 96.3 70 33 21 114 65 61 Brian Matusz L 31 29 2 32.7 31 13 8 36 21 20 Keegan Long R 24 46 1 65.0 40 27 10 74 41 38 Yoan Lopez R 25 18 7 42.3 44 25 9 44 29 27 Alex Young L 24 25 23 120.3 80 58 23 139 83 78 Frank Duncan R 26 25 24 137.3 89 41 29 169 95 89 Antonio Bastardo L 32 47 0 42.0 43 26 8 41 28 26 Daniel Gibson L 26 39 0 40.3 30 25 6 44 27 25 Mason McCullough R 25 48 0 47.3 61 50 6 40 31 29 Matt Stites R 28 36 0 38.3 27 25 5 42 26 24 Anthony Vasquez L 31 25 24 135.3 83 48 28 162 96 90 Miller Diaz R 26 29 8 66.0 57 46 13 73 49 46 Josh Taylor L 25 30 17 101.0 82 51 22 119 75 70 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Zack Greinke 175.7 727 23.4% 5.5% .279 3.48 3.53 76 80 Robbie Ray 172.0 734 31.5% 9.9% .308 3.61 3.38 79 77 Zack Godley 155.0 673 24.5% 9.5% .300 4.01 3.98 88 90 Patrick Corbin 168.0 736 20.1% 7.5% .305 4.29 4.18 94 95 Taijuan Walker 156.3 675 21.3% 7.7% .290 4.38 4.49 96 102 Shelby Miller 144.0 634 19.1% 9.0% .290 4.50 4.36 99 99 Archie Bradley 75.7 320 27.8% 9.1% .295 3.33 3.12 73 71 Anthony Banda 150.3 663 21.3% 9.4% .300 4.61 4.49 101 102 Jared Miller 67.0 288 28.8% 10.8% .299 3.49 3.56 77 81 Jake Buchanan 113.0 509 11.6% 6.9% .308 4.86 4.64 106 106 Andrew Chafin 59.3 255 24.3% 9.8% .290 3.64 3.28 80 75 Randall Delgado 66.0 286 22.4% 8.7% .296 3.82 3.73 84 85 Michael Blazek 77.0 344 18.9% 10.2% .294 4.44 4.60 97 105 David Hernandez 55.7 238 24.8% 7.6% .303 3.72 3.70 81 84 Jorge de la Rosa 99.7 444 20.5% 10.6% .288 4.88 4.89 107 111 Rubby de la Rosa 105.0 465 23.0% 9.2% .296 5.06 4.98 111 113 Yuhei Nakaushiro 60.7 273 18.7% 12.1% .297 4.15 4.11 91 94 Ryan Atkinson 113.7 525 21.7% 13.1% .304 5.30 5.30 116 121 Matt Koch 90.0 401 12.7% 6.2% .301 5.10 5.01 112 114 Aaron Laffey 80.7 365 13.4% 8.2% .303 5.02 4.94 110 112 Fernando Salas 59.7 258 22.1% 7.0% .301 4.37 3.96 96 90 Joel Payamps 135.3 610 13.6% 7.4% .302 5.39 5.32 118 121 Yoshihisa Hirano 49.3 216 21.3% 8.3% .303 4.38 4.41 96 100 T.J. McFarland 64.7 291 12.7% 7.6% .306 4.73 4.39 104 100 Louis Coleman 55.3 249 23.7% 12.4% .302 4.55 4.40 100 100 Jake Barrett 54.7 245 21.2% 11.4% .295 4.61 4.40 101 100 Jimmie Sherfy 52.7 228 29.4% 9.6% .296 4.61 4.75 101 108 Taylor Clarke 127.3 572 18.5% 8.4% .300 5.51 5.57 121 127 Brad Boxberger 42.0 186 31.7% 12.9% .293 4.71 4.85 103 110 Joey Krehbiel 56.7 256 25.4% 12.9% .301 4.76 4.83 104 110 Silvino Bracho 57.0 246 29.3% 8.9% .299 4.74 4.63 104 105 Bud Jeter 45.7 208 20.2% 11.5% .308 4.73 4.73 104 108 Braden Shipley 137.7 627 14.8% 8.5% .301 5.56 5.55 122 126 Gabe Speier 65.7 304 14.1% 10.9% .306 5.21 5.08 114 116 J.J. Hoover 54.7 246 25.6% 12.2% .298 4.94 4.93 108 112 Tyler Pill 113.7 515 14.8% 7.4% .304 5.62 5.59 123 127 Albert Suarez 92.7 414 17.6% 7.5% .298 5.63 5.46 123 124 Neftali Feliz 48.3 215 21.9% 10.2% .287 5.03 4.94 110 112 Ivan Pineyro 96.0 432 16.7% 7.4% .305 5.62 5.55 123 126 J.R. Bradley 41.7 191 19.4% 11.5% .309 5.18 5.05 114 115 Kris Medlen 96.3 436 16.1% 7.6% .302 5.70 5.69 125 129 Brian Matusz 32.7 147 21.1% 8.8% .301 5.51 5.73 121 130 Keegan Long 65.0 296 13.5% 9.1% .298 5.26 5.31 115 121 Yoan Lopez 42.3 196 22.4% 12.8% .304 5.74 5.83 126 133 Alex Young 120.3 558 14.3% 10.4% .297 5.83 5.93 128 135 Frank Duncan 137.3 622 14.3% 6.6% .308 5.83 5.66 128 129 Antonio Bastardo 42.0 193 22.3% 13.5% .289 5.57 5.44 122 124 Daniel Gibson 40.3 190 15.8% 13.2% .299 5.58 5.46 122 124 Mason McCullough 47.3 232 26.3% 21.6% .304 5.51 5.59 121 127 Matt Stites 38.3 182 14.8% 13.7% .301 5.63 5.48 123 125 Anthony Vasquez 135.3 616 13.5% 7.8% .298 5.99 5.82 131 132 Miller Diaz 66.0 317 18.0% 14.5% .305 6.27 6.26 137 143 Josh Taylor 101.0 473 17.3% 10.8% .311 6.24 6.06 137 138 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Zack Greinke 175.7 8.71 2.05 1.13 128 4.0 Yes That Bob Gibson Robbie Ray 172.0 12.09 3.82 1.10 125 3.9 Sam McDowell Zack Godley 155.0 9.58 3.72 1.10 111 2.7 Jason Jennings Patrick Corbin 168.0 7.93 2.95 1.23 104 2.4 Steve Trout Taijuan Walker 156.3 8.29 2.99 1.44 103 2.2 Al Nipper Shelby Miller 144.0 7.56 3.56 1.19 99 1.8 Jamey Wright Archie Bradley 75.7 10.59 3.45 0.83 134 1.7 Ken Ryan Anthony Banda 150.3 8.44 3.71 1.26 97 1.7 Jimmy Anderson Jared Miller 67.0 11.15 4.16 0.94 129 1.2 Billy McCool Jake Buchanan 113.0 4.70 2.79 1.04 93 1.1 Bill Fischer Andrew Chafin 59.3 9.40 3.79 0.76 122 1.0 Randy Choate Randall Delgado 66.0 8.73 3.41 0.95 117 0.9 Bob Grim Michael Blazek 77.0 7.60 4.09 1.17 100 0.9 Charlie Williams David Hernandez 55.7 9.54 2.91 1.13 120 0.8 Dale Murray Jorge de la Rosa 99.7 8.22 4.24 1.44 91 0.8 Oscar Judd Rubby de la Rosa 105.0 9.17 3.69 1.80 89 0.8 Tom Shearn Yuhei Nakaushiro 60.7 7.57 4.90 0.59 109 0.7 Tippy Martinez Ryan Atkinson 113.7 9.03 5.46 1.50 85 0.5 Colin McLaughlin Matt Koch 90.0 5.10 2.50 1.40 87 0.5 Dave Eiland Aaron Laffey 80.7 5.47 3.35 1.23 89 0.5 Joe Gibbon Fernando Salas 59.7 8.60 2.72 1.36 103 0.5 Mark Williamson Joel Payamps 135.3 5.52 2.99 1.53 83 0.4 Jason Karnuth Yoshihisa Hirano 49.3 8.39 3.28 1.28 103 0.4 Bryan Corey T.J. McFarland 64.7 5.15 3.06 0.97 96 0.4 Jim Umbarger Louis Coleman 55.3 9.60 5.04 1.14 99 0.4 Dennis Higgins Jake Barrett 54.7 8.56 4.61 1.15 97 0.3 Marc Pisciotta Jimmie Sherfy 52.7 11.45 3.76 1.88 97 0.3 Fernando Cabrera Taylor Clarke 127.3 7.49 3.39 1.91 81 0.2 Scott Patterson Brad Boxberger 42.0 12.64 5.14 1.93 96 0.2 Dwayne Henry Joey Krehbiel 56.7 10.32 5.24 1.43 94 0.2 Bob Gibson Silvino Bracho 57.0 11.37 3.47 1.89 94 0.2 Steve Chitren Bud Jeter 45.7 8.28 4.73 1.18 94 0.2 Casey Daigle Braden Shipley 137.7 6.08 3.46 1.70 80 0.2 Kevin Hodges Gabe Speier 65.7 5.89 4.52 1.10 87 0.1 Scott Rice J.J. Hoover 54.7 10.37 4.94 1.65 90 0.1 David Lee Tyler Pill 113.7 6.02 3.01 1.82 79 0.1 Pat Ahearne Albert Suarez 92.7 7.09 3.01 1.94 80 0.1 Scott Mitchell Neftali Feliz 48.3 8.75 4.10 1.68 90 0.1 John Kiely Ivan Pineyro 96.0 6.75 3.00 1.88 79 0.0 Vicente Bonilla J.R. Bradley 41.7 7.99 4.75 1.30 86 0.0 Rick Greene Kris Medlen 96.3 6.54 3.08 1.96 78 0.0 Robert Ellis Brian Matusz 32.7 8.54 3.58 2.20 82 -0.1 Jerry Augustine Keegan Long 65.0 5.54 3.74 1.38 85 -0.1 Bob Miller Yoan Lopez 42.3 9.35 5.31 1.91 78 -0.1 David Chavarria Alex Young 120.3 5.98 4.34 1.72 76 -0.2 Wade Blasingame Frank Duncan 137.3 5.83 2.69 1.90 76 -0.2 Bill King Antonio Bastardo 42.0 9.21 5.57 1.71 80 -0.2 Pedro Borbon Daniel Gibson 40.3 6.69 5.58 1.34 80 -0.2 Philip Barzilla Mason McCullough 47.3 11.60 9.51 1.14 81 -0.2 Josh Banks Matt Stites 38.3 6.34 5.87 1.17 79 -0.2 Newt Kimball Anthony Vasquez 135.3 5.52 3.19 1.86 76 -0.3 Andrew Lorraine Miller Diaz 66.0 7.77 6.27 1.77 71 -0.6 Julian Leyva Josh Taylor 101.0 7.31 4.54 1.96 71 -0.7 Manny Acosta *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR. We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks by Carson Cistulli! Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. 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