2018 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
A perfectly average group of field players would produce something like 16 wins collectively in a season (that is, two wins times eight starters). The group of D-backs field players on the depth-chart image below is projected for roughly 15 wins collectively in 2018. By one definition, at least, this is basically an average offense.

By another, it’s not at all. Of the club’s eight likely starters, only one — Ketel Marte (599 PA, 1.7 zWAR) — receives a wins forecast that would round to 2.0. Paul Goldschmidt (638, 4.1), Jake Lamb (589, 2.5), and A.J. Pollock (510, 3.4) occupy one mode of this hypothetical distribution graph; the rest of the starting eight (minus Marte), the other.

The weakness for a club constructed thusly is its exposure to risk: an injury to one of the teams leaders can have catastrophic effects. This was the case for the 2016 edition of the D-backs, for example, when A.J. Pollock was unable to make his season debut until late August. The strength for such a club, meanwhile, is the ease of upgrading the roster. In the case of Arizona, finding an alternative to Yasmany Tomas (426, 0.4) in left field might represent the most expedient means to such an upgrade.

Pitchers
The D-backs rotation was objectively one of the strongest in the majors this past season, producing the second-highest collective WAR figure in the majors. All the principals from last year return to the 2018 iteration of the club. Zack Greinke (175.2 IP, 4.0 zWAR) and Robbie Ray (172.0, 3.9) both profile as frontline starters, while Patrick Corbin (168.0, 2.4), Zack Godley (155.0, 2.7), and Taijuan Walker (156.1, 2.2) each receive an above-average forecast. The projection for Godley, in particular, seems notable. ZiPS calls for the right-hander to retain much of what he exhibited in last year’s breakout.

When he was selected seventh overall by Arizona in the 2011 draft, Archie Bradley (75.7 IP, 73 ERA-, 1.7 zWAR) seemed to possess all the requisite tools to succeed as a major-league starter. Last season, he half-realized his potential, providing starter-level production for the D-backs (2.1 FIP-based WAR, 3.4 runs-allowed WAR), just as a reliever. He’ll return to the closer role again this season.

Bench/Prospects
As has been the case in recent seasons, Arizona employs a number of serviceable infield types. Nick Ahmed (335 PA, 0.8 zWAR), Daniel Descalso (341, -0.1), and Brandon Drury (546, 0.3) all recorded a decent number of major-league plate appearance last season. Domingo Leyba (455, 0.7) and Ildemaro Vargas (547, 0.7) didn’t record as many major-league plate appearances but are qualified to do so in some capacity, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer.

Right-hander Shelby Miller (144.0 IP, 99 ERA-, 1.8 zWAR) hasn’t experienced much success since joining the D-backs in a trade that sent both Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson to Atlanta. He’s recovering from a Tommy John procedure at the moment but is forecast to record roughly average numbers when he returns. Jared Miller (67.0 IP, 77 ERA-, 1.2) is of no relation to Shelby and has, in fact, never thrown a major-league pitch. Nevertheless, the giant left-hander does receive the second-best ERA projection among Arizona’s relievers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.