2018 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Perhaps more strongly than any club examined to date in this series, the 2018 iteration of the Boston Red Sox resembles its immediate predecessor. For the most part, that’s to the club’s benefit. Last year’s team was projected to receive three or more wins from five different positions, for a total of roughly 19 WAR. This year’s team is also projected to receive three or more wins from five different positions, for a total of roughly 18 WAR. Considering that an average collection of hitters produces 18 wins total in a given season, one is forced to conclude that Boston’s core is strong.

The addition of third baseman Rafael Devers (611 PA, 2.6 zWAR) is quite helpful in this regard. Third base has represented a bit of a black hole in recent years for Boston. Will Middlebrooks (2013-14), Pablo Sandoval (2015, -17), and Travis Shaw (2016) have been the Opening Day starters at third for the Red Sox over that last five years. None have crossed the two-win threshold during that span.

The roster’s weaknesses, meanwhile, remain at the weaker end of the defensive spectrum. Neither first baseman Mitch Moreland (503, 0.9) nor Hanley Ramirez (524, 1.1) profile as anything much better than a platoon type.

Pitchers
As with the starting lineup, last year’s rotation also returns almost perfectly intact. Perennial Cy Young candidate Chris Sale (215.0 IP, 6.1 zWAR) is forecast to pitch like a Cy Young candidate. Drew Pomeranz (157.1, 3.0), Rick Porcello (189.1, 2.7), and David Price (163.2, 3.4), meanwhile, all receive above-average projections. Eduardo Rodriguez (152.2, 2.3) receives one of those, too, but is also expected to begin the season on the DL after knee surgery. Steven Wright (102.1, 0.9) is most likely to take his spot in the rotation.

In the bullpen, one finds that Craig Kimbrel (59.2 IP, 53 ERA-, 2.1 zWAR) is projected to record a strikeout rate of 41.7%. That is, even after accounting for regression and age-related decline, the mean outcome for Kimbrel is to produce a figure only ever matched in 15 other reliever seasons ever, including two authored by Kimbrel himself. He’ll occupy the closer’s role, naturally. Joe Kelly (56.1, 74, 1.0), meanwhile, receives the top projection among the club’s other bullpen options.

Bench/Prospects
Signed for $72.5 million in August of 2014, Rusney Castillo (405 PA, 0.9 zWAR) has recorded fewer than 350 plate appearances with Boston’s major-league club, including zero of them in 2018. Nevertheless, he earns the top projection of those players omitted from the depth-chart image below. Michael Chavis (513, 0.9), an actual prospect, receives the same WAR projection as Castillo. Brock Holt (385, 0.6), meanwhile, is best among those players expected to play a bench role with the parent club.

Right-hander Hector Velazquez (111.2 IP, 0.9 zWAR), now 29, was signed out of the Mexican League last offseason and recorded 24.2 roughly league-average innings. He receives the top forecast among the pitchers absent from the depth-chart image below.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.