Prospects Chat: 1/17

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe

Kiley McDaniel: And good early afternoon from Orlando!

Eric A Longenhagen: This will likely be Kiley’s regular chat spot moving forward but we’re both here today as I missed my spot yesterday to see Luis Robert and others.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get to it…

THE Average Sports Fan: If the Reds deal Hamilton, who benefits more: Winker or Ervin?

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose Ervin because it means he gets more of an opportunity with Hamilton gone and it looks like Winker is already going to have a significant role, even with Hamilton there. But Winker is the better prospect and I don’t think it’s very close.

Ethan: Thoughts on players the Pirates got in the McCutchen/Cole trades?

Kiley McDaniel: Hey I recently wrote about that in some detail. Here’s that article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-pirates-are-forced-to-value-pl…

Kiley McDaniel: Short version: lower end starter types and role players that are close or are MLB ready, Musgrove has a chance to be a mid-rotation guy. PIT seems to be shooting for 2019/2020 contention.

Q-Ball: It seems like IFA money doesn’t change hands for much when it’s traded.  Do you feel it’s undervalued, or am I over valuing it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s important to remember that that isn’t real money being moved around, it’s just the opportunity to spend more money on the IFA market. Also I think we’re still seeing the value of those slots develop under the new CBA and that there are several external factors that impact leverage.

Kiley McDaniel: and the timing in the signing year/if there’s a big name still out there/who is in the penalty also matters, so not all IFA money deals are the same

Kiley McDaniel: i.e. wouldn’t shock me if analysis showed the pre-Ohtani deals paid a slightly higher price

leprekhan: Hey Kiley and Eric….thanks for doing this again. Who is a prospect in the Braves system that is currently under the radar that could make a big jump in 2018? Is Jean Carlos Encarnacion a potential option there?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m currently working on the Braves list and JCE is actually the guy I may be most high on that doesn’t seem to get much hype (well, one of the two). Dude has thunder in those hands and can play in the dirt. I believe he signed for $10k, as well.

Eric A Longenhagen: And William Contreras and Cristian Pache are guys who could take a leap into top 100 lists

Josh Nelson: Saw your tweet from the White Sox hitters camp. Who impresses you the most from that group?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was Robert and it wasn’t close. Hit balls out to all fields during BP, more raw pop than anyone else taking BP on that field including Burger and Sheets

Another Dan: Eric…and Kiley…together in one chat room?!? So! Many! Questions!

Kiley McDaniel: Well we were in the same room talking prospects like a week ago but now we’re back on opposite coasts

Frank: % chance that Gohara is the braves best starter by the end of next season?

Kiley McDaniel: A real chance. I think an underrated ability he has is to spot his slider to both sides of the plate and it’s more vertical than horizontal. Those two elements means he could be the rare guy that could succeed vs. RHH and LHH with just two pitches, though his changeup is fringy to average so he doesn’t have to

Jimmy Ballgame: Tanner Houck a fast mover? Starter or BP?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not moving quickly unless he’s moved to the bullpen. Most scouts I talked to before the draft thought that was ultimately where he’d end up, but I give him a better shot to stay there than most. Even if you think that there’s value in trying him as a starter for a while just to see if it works out, and it allow Houck to accrue more innings/reps to improve than he would out of ‘pen..

Kevin Mick Latchy: Anything that should cheer up us Pirate fans?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a little midleading, but I did just tweet this

Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

In the projections that fuel the projected standings
fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as…

Joe Musgrove: 157 IP, 3.87 FIP, 2.7 W… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…

17 Jan 2018

Erix: For Kiley: Are you the man who has a grip on what to think of Danny Jansen’s 2017?

Kiley McDaniel: You know how someone would want to name their kid something then they meet a terrible person with that same name and it changes everything? Cistulli/Jansen. UGH.

Ben: Any update on a couple of Brewers pitchers who didn’t make your write-up; Nate Kirby (injury issues) and Nash Walters (control, injury too)? beyond hope at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both of those guys are at a point where they need to re-prove that they’re prospects. Especially Walters. Kirby threw this fall during instructs at least.

Juan: As prospect writers, how precious do you think prospects are? Which is to say, if you were GMs, how willing would you be to trade big time prospects? On a scale from Dombrowski to Luhnow.

Kiley McDaniel: Increasingly, I find that clubs have sophisticated ways to look at this to where the margins are getting smaller and smaller in terms of gaps in evaluation. I think I would lean toward being zig-zag when it’s close to being close in terms of value. There’s also lots of value to ignoring the actual valuation of the prospects and if you’re rebuilding, borderline badger the teams that are going for it until you find a match. That’s obviously much easier to line up.

Kiley McDaniel: And this answer touches on some topics I referenced in my first article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-status-of-the-scouts-vs-stats-deba…

Kiley McDaniel: and by zig-zag I mean go a little counter to what the industry seems to be leaning toward at the moment, as that could create some value.

Deb: So is there something going on in the Yankee system? They’ve been able to take fringey guys like Chance Adams and J. Montgomery (among others) and turn them into legit prospects. Have you heard anything different about their process, or has it just been recent luck?

Eric A Longenhagen: Juan, I think your approach to both the quantity of prospects you hold/acquire and the type of prospects you hold/acquire depends on where you are in the competitive cycle.  Because we’re not subject to those incentives and others (like job security if a team isn’t competitive shortly) we try to do it in more of a vacuum.

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t want to put what I know about the NYY process on blast, but they are looking at a lot of the more sophisticated measures from trackman to biomechanical to medical, etc. Lots of teams do that too but I think they get a rare level of buy-in across the board from their staff. Credit to Cash and Damon.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree and would note they’ve altered arm slots and improved arm actions of guys like Montgomery.

Zonk: What sleepers do you like in the Cub system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Miguel Amaya didn’t do much on paper but scouts love his glove, athleticism and frame.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cubs list btw: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-chicago-cubs/

LudeBurger: omgomgomg this is HUGE

Kiley McDaniel: Agreed

Derek: What are your thoughts on Clint Frazier? It seems like the only thing holding him back is recognition of breaking balls. Do you agree? And do you think this is something he should be able to improve on with reps?

Kiley McDaniel: The power, pitch selection and even game power are all real but, yes, the chasing of off-speed pitches out of the zone is the issue

Kiley McDaniel: Often this is not fixable, it depends on what the root of the problem is

Kiley McDaniel: but if he’s 45 bat, 55-60 game power and avg in corner OF that’s still a really good player, but more of a 55 FV

976: Who’s the better prospect, Willi Castro or Domingo Leyba?

Eric A Longenhagen: I prefer Castro. Leyba continues to be an interesting analytical prospect but scouts aren’t as on him.

Sixto: Your thoughts on Nate Pearson’s upside / long-term role?

Kiley McDaniel: I may have seen his best outing last spring, so I may be beating the drum of the upside on Pearson for now. Mid to upper 90’s and flashed plus slider and changeup while throwing enough strikes. The scouts were all looking at each other like (choose your favorite OMG emoji). So the upside (which increasingly is less important these days) is soooo high. If he starts or relieves or how close to that level he can consistently get is the question and we’ll learn a lot about that in the next year. Very high variance, along with the new velocity issue that sometimes can cause problems.

Rocky Mt High: Where do you project Yonathan Daza and do you think he can hit in the bigs? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I kind of like Daza. Plus run, swing has some natural loft, he has good feel for the barrel. Swing is also long, he’s a little over-aggressive and he was old for the Cal League so take the stat line with a grain of salt. For now think he’s a 4th OF but he’s definitely a prospect.

TornUCL: How much should I worry about pitching prospects who have had Tommy John? I know the recovery rate is crazy high but does it also indicate a higher probability of a second surgery?

Kiley McDaniel: I used to worry about this because of what it said about future injury or chance to go deep into games, reliever risk, etc.

Another Dan: No longer a prospect, but what are your impressions of Jharel Cotton? Still looking at a #4 starter long term? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: That said, with the game now moving to less 200 IP starters, relievers having outsized postseason impact, etc. teams are now looking more for high octane arms and 3 years from now or 200 IP upside are less important, thus I feel like TJ is less important.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still like Cotton but his fastball plays way down due to poor extension and he might not have the command to get away with what is essentially a 40 fastball after you back out like 3mph of perceived velo. Might need to incorporate his secondaries more heavily, but less fastballs might mean his changeup is less effective.

Drew: Who are you more concerned about: Jay Groome or Kyle Lewis?

Kiley McDaniel: Groome. Obviously pitcher is almost always the right answer, but I have a feeling about Lewis figuring things out

Eric A Longenhagen: Lewis for me. Was rushed back from the knee injury too soon, has had several aborted attempts to get going again. Like three now.

Frank : Is Albert Abreu a legit top prospect or just Yankee hype?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in, though he was one of top three arms in AFL. Up to 99, chance for plus breaking ball and plus changeup. Might be ‘pen arm but if he is he’s lights out. If the command comes he’s a 60.

Hunky Dory: Kiley’s back wut wut

Brick: You’re not Dave

Craig: Miguel Andujar seems to have one of the more violent swings in the minors, yet his contact rate is very high. Is this something you think will translate well to the bigs?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of Andujar questions in the queue. I’m a believer and the tools are really good, have developed further since he stood out for his raw tools as a teenager. Tools to be above average on D but some arm accuracy issues and some mental lapses. Real bat speed and bat control and above contact rate as you say. Rare ability. In the Pirates article I said he is worth, to me, about as much as that Musgrove package.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m lukewarm. Has had issues with throwing accuracy in my looks and he pounds the ball into the ground.

BoofBonser: Most exciting prospect in the Twins system besides Royce Lewis?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Akil Badoo is exciting, Wander Javier, think LaMonte Wade is real…lotta guys

Hunky Dory: McDaniel in the McHizzouse!!!

Drew: Do any orgs/college have reputations for being able to teach certain pitches/skills better than others? Maybe the Mets and sliders? Or Stanford sapping power?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of interesting tendencies in college, like Vandy/UVA going into the northeast to get the well off types that get to school, etc. The one that comes to mind for this is Dallas Baptist. Almost all of their pitchers are Driveline types with some effort that throw 4 seamers up in the zone, almost the whole team throws 95 and almost all the hitters swing hard and try to hit it a mile. The staff is pretty good at teaching these things.

Kiley McDaniel: Also I appreciate the enthusiasm for an internet baseball chat, guys

Randy: As an Astros fan I like to think I have a pretty good idea about their prospects, however, I would be lying if I said I knew who Jairo Solis is.  Who is this guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Smooth, athletic righty up to 95, sitting 90-92, change and curve both look good right now. Still just 18, got taste of affiliated ball late last year.

Matt: I saw on Twitter that you got a look at Bobby Witt Jr. the other day. There’s been a lot of hype around him, so I’m curious how he compares to the top HS guys in the 2018 draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Think we both have seen Witt, so Eric may have thoughts too. The kid is basically above average at everything as a teenager playing against kids older than him. Not sure exactly what the position or tools are but it’s first round for sure. Brice Turang did a similar thing a year ago to give context.

Kiley McDaniel: Should say not exactly what the tools will be, since I obviously just said what they are now

Kiley McDaniel: And for those who aren’t following the 2018 draft super closely, Turang is somewhere in the top 10-15 overall right now

Eric A Longenhagen: A little old for the class so not a surprise he’s popped up a little earlier than his peers. Plus run, 45 or 50 raw right now, good chance to stay up the middle, some bat control. Lots of the profile still shifting around but up the middle guy with chance to hit and hit for some power, agree he’s likely first half of first rd

Jeff: How worried are you about Estevan Florial? Is the defense good enough even if his bat never fully gets there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhat. Think both the approach and the swing itself are issues. He’s 60 raw (at least) with 70 run so if the light turns on it’ll be crazy, but it’s not on right now.

Magic 8 Ball: Does Jake Peter have a decent chance this year to take over Chase Utley’s role in LA as a left-handed hitting second baseman/pinch hitter?

Kiley McDaniel: We both wrote about this right after the deal. Spoiler: we both think there’s a chance https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-prospects-received-by-dod…

Colin: Gentlemen – Does Michel Baez have a #2 starter ceiling, and how aggressively do the Padres move him through their system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just on stuff yeah, that’s probably where I’d say he maxes out. Potential plus-plus fastball, plus change, plus command, avg breaking ball.  But also haven’t seen a guy this size with this kind of velo and command already, so maybe there’s more in there.

Ham Bone: I have a 3 year old beef with Kiley. Why didn’t you accept my Snapchat friend request? I took it personal….and I send great snaps

Kiley McDaniel: Just added all my requests so I think I fixed this? You’ll have trouble beating my current top snap friend Chris Mitchell

C-Dawg: Which second round outfielder of Fairchild, Waters, or Diechmann has the highest floor? Ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Like Waters wide base of skills/tools, but for what I think you’re asking it has to be Deichmann. Bonkers LH power, raked pro/amateur in 2017 and is already 22, should move fast. Also is just fine on D in RF so no DH/1B concern either.

TKDC: Would an Inciarte, Acuna, Pache outfield be a contender for best ever (defense only)?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have great context for this all time, but Inciarte is a 7 (maybe 8?) in CF, Pache is a 7 in CF and Acuna is probably a 6 in a corner. Anyone have other candidates?

Drew: People always talk about pitches with late break/late movement. Do pitchers have control over when their pitches break? And do some pitches have problems with their pitches moving early?

Eric A Longenhagen: Would think this largely due to some combination of spin axis, release point variables and extension. Not sure pitches move sooner for some hurlers or if it’s just perceived, visually.

Drew: Who are some of your favorite super young latin prospects to break out and go from blob-of-tools to exciting prospect (ala Acuna, Robles, etc)

Eric A Longenhagen: Lazarito

Kiley McDaniel: Physics would say it’s impossible. Obviously if scouts and hitters are seeing it and hitters are reacting to it, then it’s something, even if just a visual trick

Eric A Longenhagen: ^ Regarding Lazarito? Yes.

Kiley McDaniel: lol physics has lots of thoughts on lazarito here lemme get neil degrasse tyson on the phone and hold it up to the chat window

Colin: Will we see Patrick Weigel come back as a starter or reliever?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know the plans but I would put him in the pen and let him go mid to upper 90s and plus slider. He has and avg CB and CH and throws strikes, so wouldn’t rule out SP but I think his best role after the TJ will be potential multi inning RP. Okay, no more Braves questions

Slurve: Who is the most exciting Mariner prospect these days?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Mike Ford is exciting from a ‘What the hell is this guy?’ perspective and Evan White is exciting because he’s a weird profile. Upside/ Tools-wise, Lewis is still exciting, as are Sam Carlson and Julio Rodriguez.

Erik: Sixto Sanchez is just 6 feet tall and throws very hard. That almost always leads to constant talk of him eventually moving to the bullpen, but I don’t hear much of that with him. Why is that?

Kiley McDaniel: Three pitches and has at least early stages of feel of a starter. Still not a big dude but hey Sonny Gray can do it so that alone isn’t enough.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s short but not small, plus athlete, no command issues nor is he mechanically violent. Up to 102, sits 98+, deserves all the love.

Eric: Were you using “on blast” in the slangy way of sharing damaging/embarrassing information about NYY? Rest of your comment seemed complimentary.

Kiley McDaniel: Nah just didn’t want to say everything I’ve heard/know details-wise

Andy: Kiley.  How do you pronounce your name?

Kiley McDaniel: Riley with a K seems to be the easiest way to explain it

Alberta clipper: Is mike Soroka the next great Canadian pitcher

Kiley McDaniel: Him vs. Quantrill will be fun to watch the next few years

Billy Beane: So in the future there will be 2 prospect chats? Because that sounds good tome.

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, just combined today since Eric valued the White Sox over the readers yesterday FOR SHAME

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s true, I’m sorry.

Erik: “So the upside (which increasingly is less important these days)”. That’s an interesting statement. What does it mean? What evidence is there that that’s true?

Kiley McDaniel: Covered a little in both of my last two article. It’s always been a little overrated when someone like us would say hey this guy will be a 50 and might be a 60, that’s his upside. Then he turns into an 80–like Cliff Lee, for example. So what good is having false precision of upside or ceiling when Jose Ramirez (CLE) can just bust right through it. I believe Cameron has said (and I know I have) that every player’s upside is 80. That’s obnoxious but also true. So parsing that this trade was good/bad bc Clint Frazier’s upside is a 55 or a 65 or whatever you think it is…it’s all kinda silly when used in that way.

Kiley McDaniel: But as a way, like with Nate Pearson, to communicate hey this guy is far away but there’s a wide range of possibilities…that is instructive

Kiley McDaniel: But people don’t like to hear high variance when they could hear high upside or risky

Curtis: Is there any reason that Luis Urias can not get to a level of say 20 hr power, as other small, excellent contact hitters Altuve and J. Ramirez have.

Kiley McDaniel: Underrated thing to monitor is how progressive teams value smaller guys with plus bat control and below average raw power in light of what’s happened with Altuve, Betts, etc. Do these teams think they can buy low and teach them to hit HR? Is this an isolated thing with a couple super elite players or can it be taught more broadly? It obviously can be with bigger guys.

Nick: Any idea when some 2018 MLB draft articles might start popping up?

Eric A Longenhagen: And Scooter Gennett and Cesar hernandez..

Kiley McDaniel: Balancing a lot of different content behind the scene right now but that is on the horizon as well!

Coopy: Who are your favorite catching prospects from the 2017 draft?
Is Varsho becoming the most highly regarded, or is a pre-draft favorite like Riley Adams still the consensus top C prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Melendez

Lunch Angle: How do you feel about the new and improved Colin Moran? What hitting and power grades would you give his bat with the new approach?

Eric A Longenhagen: We both think he has a shot to be an everyday player, 55 bat, 50 game power.

Nick: I’ve always been a fan of Jim Callis, but his latest pitcher rankings are just silly right? Mike Soroka not a top 10 RHP, Kolby Allard the 7th ranked LHP when he just finished AA as a 19 yo and has guys like Sheffield, McKay and Morejon ranked ahead of him. Does he have an anti-Braves bias or something?

Kiley McDaniel: Okay a quick talk for the group here before I exit the chat. Do you want your team’s players to be rated “fairly” or do you want them to as good as you think they’ll be in the big leagues, if you could only get one?

Kiley McDaniel: So instead of getting all worked up over rankings (thanks for reading btw!) why not focus on having the upper hand and getting an apology from us or Callis or whomever when your favorite player wins rookie of the year with a 4 WAR season after they rated him too low…then you’re indisputably correct and that’s what you want, right?

Kiley McDaniel: So take it easy on the bias stuff and realize the potentially dominant position these rankings could put you in…even if you have to wait another year or two. This has been Kiley on how to find your inner happiness on the internet

Eric A Longenhagen: And I don’t think Jim does Braves prospects for MLB so probably double check that kind of stuff before you trash a writer of any sort if you must do so.

Andy: Do you like Nolan Gorman to the Mets at #6 this year?  Or another college arm like McClanahan?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he’s the most polished HS bat in a class without (other than Madrigal right now, maybe Eierman) an elite college hitter up top.

Eric A Longenhagen: So yeah maybe top 10, not sure it it’ll be NYM. Too early for that kind of connectin.

Drew: Can you compare Singer to Kyle Wright, Alex Faedo, AJ Puk when they were draft prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d go Wright, Puk, Singer, Faedo. Kiley, you have an opinion on that group?

Kiley McDaniel: Same order, actually

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel a new level of closeness to you now. We’re now at level 1.

Kiley McDaniel: Also, the draft guys Eric mentions above…I like all three of those hitters too and you could include Madrigal on that Betts/Altuve list above

Kiley McDaniel: Okay now I’m actually leaving. Later, dudes and female dudes.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll rapid fire some for a few minutes yet…

surferjeff: Mejia and Calhoun – What do you see from each this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mejia learning a new position so that could take some time. Calhoun doesn’t have one, so as soon as Texas acknowledges that and just  lets him hit he’ll be great. Think he has more of a ’18 impact.

Magic 8 Ball: Did command issues take some bloom off the rose for Yadier Alvarez? Projections for 2018 and MLB arrival?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has always had command issues and my issue is now, “Why hasn’t this guy gotten any better?” Think he repeats Double-A to start 2018.

Terry: Has L. Fox progressed as anticipated, or is he lacking big time/more than expected in an area(s)?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is about where I’d have expected him to be when he first signed, yeah. Was a little nervous after his 2016, but reports were still strong despite the statline and have continued to be.

Nick: Forrest Whitley vs Walker Buehler.  Is this a matter of preference or is 1 clearly better than the other?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m taking Whitley. Size, deeper repertoire, doesn’t have a TJ under his belt already…

Frank Menechino: Thoughts on Daulton Jefferies returning from TJ next season? What do you see as his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Potential #3/4. Will touch 96, plus change, avg breaking ball (they’ve tinkered with both a slider and curve, forget which it was was last spring before the injury), plus command

Mike: So did Jake Burger’s body look totally different?  He looks transformed in some recent pics.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not to me. Voluntarily took grounders at third yesterday during BP and looked okay.

Kyle (Angels Fan): Any thoughts on the three Angels outfield prospects? (Jones, Marsh and Adell)

Eric A Longenhagen: Like all three of those guys. Working on that list now and they’re not easy to line up.

EL: Can Duggar handle CF defensively?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Erey Mcenhagen: If you HAD to pick a player in the minors to go 40-40 in the majors (the highest likelihood to actually do it). Who would it be?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess Acuna? Maybe a huge Anthony Alford season if everything comes together?

Matt: If I want to get into college baseball this year, what is the one team to follow that will have the most future MLB players/stars?

Eric A Longenhagen: TCU, UCLA, Florida, Oregon State, Wichita St has a pair of guys, Kentucky

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, folks that will do it for today. Thank you for stopping by. I will be back on my normal Tuesday schedule next week whereas Kiley will be taking Wednesdays. Have a great day.