2018 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins by Carson Cistulli December 20, 2017 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. ZiPS Projections 20182017ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters Whatever the weaknesses of the 2017 Marlins, the club’s field-playing contingent wasn’t among them. Miami hitters produced 26 wins collectively this past season, the seventh-best mark in the majors — in close proximity to the figures recorded by Cubs and Nationals hitters, for example. It was an impressive group, especially relative to its youth. It’s unlikely to be so impressive in 2018. Three of this past season’s top-five players — Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna, and MVP-winner Giancarlo Stanton — have already been traded this offseason, all in deals designed by the new front office to prioritize future and not present value (if they’re designed to prioritize on-field value, at all). The result is a much diminished squad. J.T. Realmuto (563 PA, 2.8 zWAR) and Christian Yelich (681, 4.2) are the only two above-average players on the current edition of the club according to ZiPS. They remain employed by the Marlins for now, although neither player is certain to appear on the Opening Day roster. In their absence, Justin Bour (431, 1.6) and Starlin Castro (564, 1.8) would represent the most recognizable names. Third baseman Brian Anderson (565, 1.8) receives a promising forecast from Dan Szymborski’s computer. If he breaks camp with the team, he has a chance of becoming its best player. Mostly, though, there are a lot of pieces here without very certain roles. Pitchers For as good as the Marlins’ hitting was in 2017, the pitching was that much worse, ranking third-to-last in WAR. The rotation, which experienced a huge loss following the unfortunate death of Jose Fernandez, featured a procession of replacement-level options. The 2018 edition of the club is likely to offer much of the same. A full season of Wei-Yin Chen (113.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR) would certainly help, but a full season of Wei-Yin Chen is also improbable: the left-hander’s season ended early due to elbow discomfort and he’s currently attempting to avoid Tommy John surgery. Dan Straily (165.1, 1.0) is the only other starter projected for a win or better. The bullpen actually features a triumvirate of effective high-leverage options in Kyle Barraclough (67.0 IP, 80 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR), Drew Steckenrider (61.1, 73, 1.3), and Brad Ziegler (49.0, 79, 0.9). They might not have many leads to protect, however, and there’s little depth behind them. Bench/Prospects Readers might note the positive forecast received here by Sierra and assume the Marlins did well in their deal with the Cardinals. That’s free agent Moises Sierra (407 PA, 1.2 zWAR) who appears near the top of the projection tables, though. Outfielder Magneuris Sierra (558, -0.7) is the one whom the club acquired from St. Louis. Among bench options, Rafael Ortega (505, 0.9) receives the best mark. The farm does feature one bright spot in the person of Trevor Richards (126.0 IP, 1.2 zWAR). The right-hander was undrafted out of Drury University but represents the top pitching option for the option of those excluded from the depth-chart image below. Eric Longenhagen discussed Richards’ outlook this summer. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Christian Yelich L 26 CF 681 92 168 35 3 17 81 17 4 J.T. Realmuto R 27 C 563 62 139 27 5 13 59 10 3 Starlin Castro R 28 2B 564 61 147 26 1 18 69 3 1 Brian Anderson R 25 3B 565 65 123 23 3 15 62 1 1 Justin Bour L 30 1B 431 49 103 18 0 21 73 1 0 Martin Prado R 34 3B 470 45 118 21 2 6 48 1 1 Moises Sierra R 29 RF 407 45 98 17 2 8 39 11 4 Derek Dietrich L 28 RF 457 55 98 21 5 13 50 0 1 Rafael Ortega L 27 CF 505 55 116 21 5 5 44 19 7 Miguel Rojas R 29 SS 358 39 84 16 2 2 28 3 3 Tomas Telis B 27 C 423 47 104 19 3 5 39 4 1 Johnny Giavotella R 30 2B 436 47 107 22 3 5 41 5 3 Destin Hood R 28 LF 390 44 85 18 2 13 45 6 3 Chad Wallach R 26 C 307 33 61 14 0 8 31 1 1 Peter Mooney L 27 SS 423 41 87 15 2 3 28 2 2 Bryan Holaday R 30 C 321 30 68 14 1 8 34 0 3 Ramon Cabrera B 28 C 295 26 69 13 1 4 27 1 1 A.J. Ellis R 37 C 155 13 29 6 0 3 16 0 0 Braxton Lee L 24 CF 528 50 112 15 3 2 30 16 13 Austin Nola R 28 C 406 36 82 16 1 3 30 3 2 J.T. Riddle L 26 SS 391 37 90 14 2 5 38 2 2 Christian Colon R 29 2B 286 26 62 10 0 2 18 6 3 Cam Maron L 27 C 266 26 56 8 1 3 21 0 0 Cristhian Adames B 26 2B 437 43 92 14 4 7 33 5 5 Chris Parmelee L 30 1B 270 31 56 11 0 10 30 0 1 Ichiro Suzuki L 44 RF 250 26 60 8 2 2 19 3 1 Garrett Cooper R 27 1B 439 48 99 22 1 13 53 1 1 Matt Juengel R 28 1B 413 44 94 21 3 10 45 3 1 Isaac Galloway R 28 CF 386 40 81 12 3 10 37 16 5 Will Allen R 26 C 401 35 77 17 1 8 36 0 0 Eury Perez R 28 CF 307 29 68 10 3 2 22 22 7 Chad Hinshaw R 27 CF 321 32 57 13 2 5 24 11 6 Yefri Perez B 27 CF 403 38 79 9 4 1 21 22 10 Tyler Moore R 31 1B 248 22 47 12 0 8 30 0 0 Austin Dean R 24 LF 464 47 102 23 4 9 47 5 3 John Norwood R 25 RF 524 52 105 16 3 12 46 9 9 Grant Green R 30 3B 370 35 81 15 2 4 30 2 4 Magneuris Sierra L 22 CF 558 53 127 20 5 2 40 21 14 Yadiel Rivera R 26 SS 455 40 83 12 4 5 32 5 4 Steve Lombardozzi B 29 2B 408 37 93 13 2 1 22 9 4 Jake Elmore R 31 2B 375 32 73 9 0 1 23 9 7 Mike Aviles R 37 3B 245 19 50 7 2 1 15 1 2 J.B. Shuck L 31 LF 431 40 93 15 4 4 31 5 3 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Christian Yelich 681 11.2% 20.4% .155 .339 .281 .364 .436 .345 113 J.T. Realmuto 563 5.9% 17.9% .146 .307 .266 .314 .412 .310 90 Starlin Castro 564 4.6% 17.6% .155 .309 .277 .314 .432 .316 95 Brian Anderson 565 7.6% 23.9% .145 .297 .241 .308 .386 .300 84 Justin Bour 431 10.2% 20.4% .211 .296 .269 .343 .480 .345 113 Martin Prado 470 6.0% 12.6% .099 .299 .271 .317 .370 .297 82 Moises Sierra 407 6.9% 19.4% .120 .313 .262 .319 .382 .305 87 Derek Dietrich 457 7.4% 22.3% .176 .297 .247 .337 .423 .327 102 Rafael Ortega 505 7.5% 14.1% .100 .288 .252 .309 .352 .289 77 Miguel Rojas 358 6.4% 10.6% .081 .286 .259 .314 .340 .283 73 Tomas Telis 423 4.7% 11.1% .101 .287 .264 .304 .365 .289 77 Johnny Giavotella 436 6.0% 11.0% .107 .290 .268 .312 .375 .297 82 Destin Hood 390 7.4% 28.5% .171 .305 .238 .295 .409 .301 85 Chad Wallach 307 8.5% 26.1% .138 .280 .221 .294 .359 .286 75 Peter Mooney 423 8.7% 15.6% .074 .270 .230 .301 .304 .270 64 Bryan Holaday 321 4.7% 17.4% .135 .255 .231 .274 .366 .275 67 Ramon Cabrera 295 5.4% 15.6% .098 .286 .251 .293 .349 .279 70 A.J. Ellis 155 7.7% 17.4% .109 .243 .212 .294 .321 .272 66 Braxton Lee 528 7.8% 20.3% .057 .300 .236 .300 .293 .264 61 Austin Nola 406 7.9% 18.0% .074 .273 .227 .294 .301 .263 59 J.T. Riddle 391 4.9% 18.9% .090 .294 .247 .284 .337 .267 63 Christian Colon 286 7.3% 14.3% .063 .280 .242 .304 .305 .269 63 Cam Maron 266 10.2% 20.3% .081 .293 .237 .313 .318 .282 72 Cristhian Adames 437 6.9% 20.4% .109 .280 .232 .287 .341 .273 66 Chris Parmelee 270 9.3% 25.2% .170 .277 .231 .304 .401 .303 86 Ichiro Suzuki 250 7.2% 14.0% .080 .304 .264 .323 .344 .292 79 Garrett Cooper 439 6.6% 23.0% .157 .295 .246 .301 .403 .300 84 Matt Juengel 413 5.3% 18.6% .148 .280 .245 .291 .393 .293 79 Isaac Galloway 386 5.4% 27.7% .134 .293 .227 .274 .361 .273 66 Will Allen 401 5.7% 25.9% .116 .263 .209 .259 .325 .254 54 Eury Perez 307 5.2% 17.9% .080 .299 .245 .300 .325 .275 67 Chad Hinshaw 321 7.5% 30.8% .112 .284 .199 .279 .311 .262 59 Yefri Perez 403 7.2% 22.8% .055 .285 .216 .276 .271 .246 48 Tyler Moore 248 7.3% 27.8% .159 .258 .208 .267 .367 .273 66 Austin Dean 464 5.8% 22.2% .135 .289 .237 .283 .372 .281 71 John Norwood 524 7.4% 30.7% .121 .302 .220 .282 .341 .273 66 Grant Green 370 4.9% 20.3% .090 .284 .233 .271 .323 .257 56 Magneuris Sierra 558 4.7% 19.7% .069 .302 .243 .281 .312 .260 58 Yadiel Rivera 455 4.8% 28.4% .083 .268 .196 .242 .279 .228 37 Steve Lombardozzi 408 6.6% 13.7% .053 .288 .248 .299 .301 .266 61 Jake Elmore 375 9.9% 15.7% .036 .265 .222 .304 .258 .257 56 Mike Aviles 245 4.5% 14.3% .062 .257 .222 .266 .284 .241 45 J.B. Shuck 431 6.0% 9.5% .088 .251 .235 .283 .323 .263 60 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Christian Yelich 681 6.1 118 -1 4.2 Carl Yastrzemski J.T. Realmuto 563 4.9 97 1 2.8 Terry Steinbach Starlin Castro 564 5.1 101 -3 1.8 Jeff Kent Brian Anderson 565 4.2 89 5 1.8 Jon Debus Justin Bour 431 6.1 122 -1 1.6 Paul Sorrento Martin Prado 470 4.3 88 4 1.4 Ray Knight Moises Sierra 407 4.6 91 6 1.2 Gabe Kapler Derek Dietrich 457 5.1 106 -5 0.9 Ryan Church Rafael Ortega 505 4.1 81 1 0.9 Eddie Milner Miguel Rojas 358 3.8 79 3 0.8 Marty Perez Tomas Telis 423 4.1 82 -6 0.7 Wilbert Nieves Johnny Giavotella 436 4.3 87 -3 0.6 Garth Iorg Destin Hood 390 4.3 90 2 0.6 Yurendell de Caster Chad Wallach 307 3.6 78 -2 0.5 Eric Helfand Peter Mooney 423 3.2 67 3 0.5 Danny Solano Bryan Holaday 321 3.3 73 1 0.5 Rick Cerone Ramon Cabrera 295 3.6 75 -2 0.4 Maxim St. Pierre A.J. Ellis 155 3.2 69 1 0.3 Elston Howard Braxton Lee 528 2.9 64 9 0.3 Mike Kingery Austin Nola 406 3.1 64 1 0.3 Dave Van Gorder J.T. Riddle 391 3.4 69 2 0.3 Tom Veryzer Christian Colon 286 3.3 68 4 0.3 Sergio Garcia Cam Maron 266 3.5 74 -3 0.3 Clay Hill Cristhian Adames 437 3.3 71 2 0.2 Chris Lombardozzi Chris Parmelee 270 4.2 91 1 0.2 Bob Tumpane Ichiro Suzuki 250 4.1 83 0 0.1 Milt Thompson Garrett Cooper 439 4.3 90 0 0.1 Justin Huber Matt Juengel 413 4.1 85 1 -0.1 Nate Grindell Isaac Galloway 386 3.6 72 -3 -0.1 Manny Martinez Will Allen 401 2.9 59 -2 -0.2 Joe Ayrault Eury Perez 307 3.8 71 -5 -0.3 Gene Clines Chad Hinshaw 321 2.9 62 0 -0.3 Pat Dobson Yefri Perez 403 2.6 51 5 -0.4 Ed Bady Tyler Moore 248 3.4 71 0 -0.5 Chris Widger Austin Dean 464 3.7 77 -2 -0.5 Casey Close John Norwood 524 3.1 70 4 -0.6 Wil Culmer Grant Green 370 2.9 62 -1 -0.7 Steve Springer Magneuris Sierra 558 3.0 62 0 -0.7 Leo Garcia Yadiel Rivera 455 2.2 42 6 -0.8 Jason Bowers Steve Lombardozzi 408 3.3 65 -8 -1.1 Doug Griffin Jake Elmore 375 2.6 56 -5 -1.1 Don Heffner Mike Aviles 245 2.5 51 -5 -1.2 Rey Sanchez J.B. Shuck 431 3.2 66 -6 -1.5 Ryan Fleming *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Wei-Yin Chen L 32 20 20 113.7 92 25 18 117 56 52 Drew Steckenrider R 27 58 0 61.3 82 30 5 48 22 21 Trevor Richards R 25 25 23 126.0 104 47 16 128 65 61 Kyle Barraclough R 28 68 0 67.0 86 46 4 50 27 25 Dan Straily R 29 30 30 165.3 151 64 31 162 92 86 Brad Ziegler R 38 52 0 49.0 33 17 2 47 19 18 Zac Gallen R 22 26 26 150.7 108 44 23 166 82 77 Dillon Peters L 25 20 20 97.7 72 36 11 104 51 48 Pablo Lopez R 22 26 23 136.0 77 33 17 152 75 70 Adam Conley L 28 30 28 143.3 107 64 17 149 79 74 Jose Urena R 26 32 25 144.0 102 52 21 150 79 74 Edinson Volquez R 34 16 15 84.0 69 42 9 81 44 41 James Buckelew L 26 35 9 92.0 59 44 7 96 48 45 Merandy Gonzalez R 22 24 24 116.7 102 67 14 118 65 61 Andy Beltre R 24 42 0 51.0 51 25 4 46 22 21 Caleb Smith L 26 27 19 104.7 98 52 15 101 59 55 Justin Nicolino L 26 33 25 142.3 76 39 21 164 81 76 Vance Worley R 30 29 16 107.3 68 35 14 119 60 56 Chris O’Grady L 28 30 12 79.3 65 29 12 83 44 41 Nick Wittgren R 27 49 0 54.7 50 13 7 55 26 24 Mike Kickham L 29 24 22 120.7 79 35 19 134 70 65 Junichi Tazawa R 32 58 0 56.7 50 17 7 57 28 26 Dustin McGowan R 36 55 0 64.3 58 29 8 61 32 30 Alex Wimmers R 29 46 0 56.0 52 28 6 52 28 26 Odrisamer Despaigne R 31 33 17 110.3 74 46 13 115 63 59 Miguel del Pozo L 25 29 2 45.7 37 24 4 46 24 22 Stephen Fife R 31 16 16 77.3 51 35 10 86 45 42 Severino Gonzalez R 25 46 5 80.3 52 19 12 90 44 41 Chris Mazza R 28 26 22 114.0 63 43 16 129 68 64 Brian Ellington R 27 60 0 65.7 75 45 7 57 34 32 Kyle Lobstein L 28 28 11 83.0 59 39 11 88 49 46 Sandy Alcantara R 22 32 23 127.0 106 81 16 129 76 71 Drew Rucinski R 29 30 15 103.0 80 34 18 113 62 58 Esmerling de la Rosa R 27 39 0 51.0 43 26 6 52 28 26 Jeff Locke L 30 22 19 110.3 81 42 17 119 67 63 Kelvin Marte L 30 29 10 84.3 59 42 12 91 51 48 Brandon Barker R 25 25 18 119.3 89 51 20 128 74 69 Ryan Beckman R 28 39 0 48.0 32 30 4 50 28 26 Javy Guerra R 32 47 0 58.7 48 34 8 60 34 32 Elieser Hernandez R 23 20 15 78.0 69 35 16 84 50 47 Hunter Cervenka L 28 52 0 44.7 45 36 5 40 27 25 Daniel Schlereth L 32 32 0 30.7 24 25 3 30 19 18 Jarlin Garcia L 25 69 0 54.3 43 21 9 57 32 30 Scott Copeland R 30 24 23 122.0 80 60 19 135 78 73 Keyvius Sampson R 27 29 16 91.0 91 67 13 86 58 54 Nick Neidert R 21 24 24 113.3 78 27 24 131 73 68 Brandon Cunniff R 29 41 0 52.3 50 35 8 50 32 30 James Needy R 27 19 19 94.0 65 46 16 103 61 57 Matt Tomshaw L 29 25 23 130.7 80 37 25 154 85 79 Clayton Mortensen R 33 32 5 60.7 56 40 10 61 40 37 Tayron Guerrero R 27 40 0 41.3 49 34 7 39 27 25 Greg Nappo L 29 26 0 45.3 38 22 9 49 30 28 William Cuevas R 27 25 19 104.3 76 56 17 111 70 65 Tyler Higgins R 27 36 1 55.3 34 19 11 66 37 35 Brett Graves R 25 21 18 93.3 56 42 19 108 67 63 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Wei-Yin Chen 113.7 483 19.0% 5.2% .287 4.12 4.34 98 103 Drew Steckenrider 61.3 262 31.3% 11.5% .301 3.08 3.06 73 72 Trevor Richards 126.0 553 18.8% 8.5% .296 4.36 4.44 104 105 Kyle Barraclough 67.0 297 29.0% 15.5% .289 3.36 3.43 80 81 Dan Straily 165.3 722 20.9% 8.9% .279 4.68 5.00 111 118 Brad Ziegler 49.0 211 15.6% 8.1% .288 3.31 3.26 79 77 Zac Gallen 150.7 662 16.3% 6.6% .298 4.60 4.72 109 112 Dillon Peters 97.7 433 16.6% 8.3% .302 4.42 4.44 105 105 Pablo Lopez 136.0 593 13.0% 5.6% .295 4.63 4.55 110 108 Adam Conley 143.3 643 16.6% 10.0% .296 4.65 4.65 110 110 Jose Urena 144.0 634 16.1% 8.2% .287 4.62 4.82 110 114 Edinson Volquez 84.0 375 18.4% 11.2% .287 4.39 4.44 104 105 James Buckelew 92.0 416 14.2% 10.6% .297 4.40 4.49 104 106 Merandy Gonzalez 116.7 535 19.1% 12.5% .301 4.71 4.87 112 115 Andy Beltre 51.0 224 22.8% 11.2% .298 3.71 3.77 88 89 Caleb Smith 104.7 467 21.0% 11.1% .289 4.73 4.75 112 113 Justin Nicolino 142.3 630 12.1% 6.2% .294 4.81 4.91 114 116 Vance Worley 107.3 476 14.3% 7.4% .297 4.70 4.62 112 109 Chris O’Grady 79.3 350 18.6% 8.3% .296 4.65 4.70 110 111 Nick Wittgren 54.7 232 21.5% 5.6% .300 3.95 3.71 94 88 Mike Kickham 120.7 531 14.9% 6.6% .293 4.85 4.91 115 116 Junichi Tazawa 56.7 244 20.5% 7.0% .296 4.13 3.85 98 91 Dustin McGowan 64.3 283 20.5% 10.3% .285 4.20 4.23 100 100 Alex Wimmers 56.0 248 21.0% 11.3% .288 4.18 4.25 99 101 Odrisamer Despaigne 110.3 492 15.0% 9.4% .289 4.81 4.71 114 111 Miguel del Pozo 45.7 207 17.9% 11.6% .302 4.34 4.45 103 105 Stephen Fife 77.3 353 14.5% 9.9% .302 4.89 5.03 116 119 Severino Gonzalez 80.3 350 14.9% 5.4% .297 4.59 4.63 109 110 Chris Mazza 114.0 514 12.3% 8.4% .294 5.05 5.17 120 122 Brian Ellington 65.7 299 25.1% 15.0% .299 4.39 4.50 104 106 Kyle Lobstein 83.0 376 15.7% 10.4% .292 4.99 4.90 118 116 Sandy Alcantara 127.0 591 17.9% 13.7% .297 5.03 5.23 119 124 Drew Rucinski 103.0 456 17.5% 7.5% .299 5.07 5.04 120 119 Esmerling de la Rosa 51.0 231 18.6% 11.3% .301 4.59 4.53 109 107 Jeff Locke 110.3 492 16.5% 8.5% .293 5.14 4.83 122 114 Kelvin Marte 84.3 386 15.3% 10.9% .295 5.12 5.25 122 124 Brandon Barker 119.3 537 16.6% 9.5% .291 5.20 5.25 123 124 Ryan Beckman 48.0 224 14.3% 13.4% .297 4.87 4.85 116 115 Javy Guerra 58.7 270 17.8% 12.6% .294 4.91 5.03 117 119 Elieser Hernandez 78.0 353 19.5% 9.9% .298 5.42 5.59 129 132 Hunter Cervenka 44.7 210 21.4% 17.1% .289 5.04 5.08 120 120 Daniel Schlereth 30.7 147 16.3% 17.0% .287 5.28 5.31 125 126 Jarlin Garcia 54.3 241 17.8% 8.7% .291 4.97 5.00 118 118 Scott Copeland 122.0 561 14.3% 10.7% .293 5.39 5.47 128 129 Keyvius Sampson 91.0 426 21.4% 15.7% .291 5.34 5.32 127 126 Nick Neidert 113.3 498 15.7% 5.4% .296 5.40 5.43 128 129 Brandon Cunniff 52.3 242 20.7% 14.5% .288 5.16 5.24 123 124 James Needy 94.0 431 15.1% 10.7% .292 5.46 5.65 130 134 Matt Tomshaw 130.7 583 13.7% 6.3% .298 5.44 5.45 129 129 Clayton Mortensen 60.7 283 19.8% 14.1% .293 5.49 5.48 130 130 Tayron Guerrero 41.3 197 24.9% 17.3% .308 5.44 5.68 129 134 Greg Nappo 45.3 207 18.4% 10.6% .297 5.56 5.65 132 134 William Cuevas 104.3 480 15.8% 11.7% .289 5.61 5.60 133 133 Tyler Higgins 55.3 251 13.6% 7.6% .299 5.69 5.65 135 134 Brett Graves 93.3 430 13.0% 9.8% .290 6.07 6.15 144 146 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Wei-Yin Chen 113.7 7.28 1.98 1.42 100 1.5 Brian Anderson Drew Steckenrider 61.3 12.04 4.40 0.73 134 1.3 Jim Kern Trevor Richards 126.0 7.43 3.36 1.14 93 1.2 Cha-Seung Baek Kyle Barraclough 67.0 11.55 6.18 0.54 121 1.1 Jim Kern Dan Straily 165.3 8.22 3.48 1.69 88 1.0 Les Straker Brad Ziegler 49.0 6.06 3.12 0.37 123 0.9 Mike Marshall Zac Gallen 150.7 6.45 2.63 1.37 88 0.9 Bob Tewksbury Dillon Peters 97.7 6.63 3.32 1.01 93 0.9 Al Jackson Pablo Lopez 136.0 5.10 2.18 1.13 89 0.9 Dave Geeve Adam Conley 143.3 6.72 4.02 1.07 87 0.8 Bill Wight Jose Urena 144.0 6.38 3.25 1.31 88 0.8 Steve Long Edinson Volquez 84.0 7.39 4.50 0.96 92 0.7 Ken Hill James Buckelew 92.0 5.77 4.30 0.68 92 0.6 Jim Shellenback Merandy Gonzalez 116.7 7.87 5.17 1.08 86 0.6 Ben Hendrickson Andy Beltre 51.0 9.00 4.41 0.71 110 0.6 Wayne Nix Caleb Smith 104.7 8.42 4.47 1.29 87 0.5 Jeff Wilson Justin Nicolino 142.3 4.81 2.47 1.33 85 0.5 John O’Donoghue Vance Worley 107.3 5.70 2.94 1.17 86 0.4 Jack Lamabe Chris O’Grady 79.3 7.38 3.29 1.36 89 0.4 Jeff Musselman Nick Wittgren 54.7 8.23 2.14 1.15 103 0.4 Juan Padilla Mike Kickham 120.7 5.89 2.61 1.42 84 0.4 Dave Gassner Junichi Tazawa 56.7 7.94 2.70 1.11 100 0.4 Todd Williams Dustin McGowan 64.3 8.12 4.06 1.12 98 0.3 Greg Minton Alex Wimmers 56.0 8.36 4.50 0.96 99 0.3 Ruddy Lugo Odrisamer Despaigne 110.3 6.04 3.75 1.06 84 0.3 Bennie Daniels Miguel del Pozo 45.7 7.29 4.73 0.79 94 0.2 Mike Venafro Stephen Fife 77.3 5.94 4.08 1.16 83 0.2 Dennis Burtt Severino Gonzalez 80.3 5.83 2.13 1.34 88 0.2 Matt Schwager Chris Mazza 114.0 4.97 3.39 1.26 81 0.2 Dave Lemanczyk Brian Ellington 65.7 10.27 6.16 0.96 93 0.1 Justin Kaye Kyle Lobstein 83.0 6.40 4.23 1.19 83 0.1 Rich Rundles Sandy Alcantara 127.0 7.51 5.74 1.13 81 0.1 Blaine Boyer Drew Rucinski 103.0 6.99 2.97 1.57 81 0.0 Felipe Lira Esmerling de la Rosa 51.0 7.59 4.59 1.06 89 0.0 Casey Daigle Jeff Locke 110.3 6.61 3.43 1.39 79 -0.1 Rick Krivda Kelvin Marte 84.3 6.30 4.48 1.28 79 -0.2 Mike Kekich Brandon Barker 119.3 6.71 3.85 1.51 78 -0.2 Andy Cook Ryan Beckman 48.0 6.00 5.63 0.75 83 -0.2 Newt Kimball Javy Guerra 58.7 7.36 5.21 1.23 84 -0.2 Jim Todd Elieser Hernandez 78.0 7.96 4.04 1.85 76 -0.3 Luther Hackman Hunter Cervenka 44.7 9.06 7.25 1.01 81 -0.3 Mike Kinnunen Daniel Schlereth 30.7 7.04 7.33 0.88 77 -0.3 Jerry Johnson Jarlin Garcia 54.3 7.13 3.48 1.49 82 -0.3 Bart Haley Scott Copeland 122.0 5.90 4.43 1.40 76 -0.3 Michael Smith Keyvius Sampson 91.0 9.00 6.63 1.29 76 -0.3 Mike Smith Nick Neidert 113.3 6.20 2.14 1.91 75 -0.4 John Gardner Brandon Cunniff 52.3 8.60 6.02 1.38 79 -0.4 Jake Robbins James Needy 94.0 6.22 4.40 1.53 74 -0.4 Ben Fritz Matt Tomshaw 130.7 5.51 2.55 1.72 76 -0.4 Scott Downs Clayton Mortensen 60.7 8.30 5.93 1.48 75 -0.4 Jim Dougherty Tayron Guerrero 41.3 10.68 7.41 1.53 75 -0.5 Calvin Jones Greg Nappo 45.3 7.55 4.37 1.79 73 -0.6 Chris Michalak William Cuevas 104.3 6.56 4.83 1.47 73 -0.6 Charlie Zink Tyler Higgins 55.3 5.53 3.09 1.79 71 -0.7 Nick McCurdy Brett Graves 93.3 5.40 4.05 1.83 68 -1.1 Brian Ahern *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.