2018 ZiPS Projections – Houston Astros

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Houston Astros position players recorded the majors’ top adjusted batting line by a considerable margin in 2017 and the largest collective WAR figure, as well. One, employing logic, would anticipate that the return of the entire starting lineup from last year’s team would render the offense a strength for the 2018 edition of the club. The numbers from Dan Szymborski’s computer support that hypothesis.

Jose Altuve (688 PA, 5.7 zWAR) and Carlos Correa (590, 5.7) belong to that class of American League player who would appear on a preseason shortlist for MVP if Mike Trout didn’t already represent the entirety of the preseason shortlist for MVP. Alex Bregman (612, 3.8) and George Springer (616, 4.4), meanwhile, are probably All-Stars. That foursome composes the core of the offense.

As for a weakness among the starting nine, that’s a relative term in the context of this club. Evan Gattis (448, 1.8 zWAR) has the trademark power of a designated hitter but not the trademark other attributes. His projected 108 wRC+ isn’t ideal at DH. But that forecast is also based on his offensive output from years in which he’s made a number of defensive appearances behind the plate. His production figures to improve if he’s not exposed to the slings and arrows of catching.

Pitchers
Unlike the offense, the Astros’ rotation won’t return entirely intact in 2018. It will return better. Justin Verlander (181.0 IP, 3.7 zWAR) made only five regular-season starts last year after joining the club at the end of August. Right-hander Gerrit Cole (190.0, 2.9), meanwhile, has arrived this offseason from Pittsburgh. They receive the best and third-best forecasts from ZiPS. Holdovers Dallas Keuchel (158.3, 3.2), Lance McCullers (128.7, 2.5), and Charlie Morton (133.0, 2.0) appear most likely to fill the remaining three starting slots.

Whatever flaws the bullpen might have exhibited in the postseason, it also represents a strength on paper. Ken Giles (65.0 IP, 69 ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) is projected for the lowest park-adjusted ERA on the club. Chris Devenski (76.1, 75, 1.6), Will Harris (52.1, 77, 0.9), and Hector Rondon (56.1, 79, 0.8) are all forecast to pitch basically like closers.

Bench/Prospects
Despite having been invoked in multiple trade rumors, Derek Fisher (560 PA, 1.9 zWAR) remains a member of the Astros organization. He also receives the top projection among both (a) those players excluded from the depth-chart image below and (b) rookie-eligible field players. Prospect Kyle Tucker (533, 1.7), whose name has also been discussed in deals, places second by both of those measures.

The depth chart below actually also excludes the pitcher who posted the highest WAR figure on the club in 2017 — namely, Brad Peacock (127.0, 95 ERA-, 1.5 zWAR). Indeed, the rotation features no room either for him or Collin McHugh (135.0, 88, 2.3), although both profile as entirely capable starters. There also appears to be no space for James Hoyt (61.2, 72, 1.0). Hoyt receives the second-best ERA projection on the entire club.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Astros, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.