2017 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The projected starting lineup for the 2017 edition of the Pirates bears a strong resemblance to the one with which the club entered last season. The only substantive difference, actually, occurs at first base, where some combination of Josh Bell (612 PA, 1.6 zWAR) and David Freese (469, 1.9) appear likely to receive the bulk of plate appearances. On the whole, the result is an above-average squad. A group of eight average players would produce something like 16 wins; this group, meanwhile, is forecast for about 21.

Despite a poor 2016 campaign, Andrew McCutchen (641, 4.1) receives the club’s top wins projection for this next season. Much of that is due to positive regression on the offensive front, ZiPS calling for a 128 OPS+ after last season’s 103 mark. The defensive prognosis is less enthusiastic: McCutchen is forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer for -10 runs in center field.

Pitchers
The depth-chart image below features the club’s starting pitchers listed not in the order in which they’re likely to be deployed by manager Clint Hurdle, but rather in order of their ZiPS WAR projection. Why that point’s relevant here is because of Tyler Glasnow (122.1 IP, 2.1 zWAR). Reports from this winter — such as this one from MLB.com’s Adam Berry — suggest that Glasnow is likely to compete for a spot in the rotation. Were Szymborski’s cold, dispassionate algorithm tasked with setting the rotation, it would probably give Glasnow the No. 2 role.

As for the bullpen, it appears as though it might benefit from the addition of another piece or two. Tony Watson (65.1 IP, 76 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) earns the top ERA and WAR projections among relievers, while Felipe Rivero (66.1, 85, 0.6) also looks promising. They’re the only two relievers, however, forecast for an ERA more than 10% lower than (i.e. better than) league average. Juan Nicasio’s (99.1, 102, 0.7) numbers might look better were he projected for relief work exclusively.

Bench/Prospects
Pittsburgh’s top prospect also receives the club’s top projection among those players not expected to open the season among the starting eight. Per ZiPS, Austin Meadows (474 PA, 2.0 zWAR) is already prepared to produce wins at a league-average rate or better, by virtue of almost precisely league-average offensive (102 OPS+) and defensive (-3 runs, but with a center-field positional adjustment) value. Infielders Alen Hanson (533, 1.5) and Kevin Newman (434, 1.7), a total of 33 major-league plate appearances between them, both profile as nearly average players, as well.

Less depth exists on the pitching side, it would appear. Drew Hutchison (154.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) and Wade LeBlanc (109.0, 1.2) are both possible starting options. Lisalverto Bonilla (95.0, 0.7) isn’t entirely without merit, either.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Pirates, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.