2018 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
During each of the last two offseasons, Jeff Sullivan has written a post about baseball’s best outfield. In each case, said outfield has belonged to the Los Angeles Angels — not, that is, because of a particularly notable breadth of talent, but rather due to the presence of Mike Trout (653 PA, 7.9 zWAR) on the roster. The 12-win mark typically represents the threshold those Angel outfields have transcended. The combination of Trout, Kole Calhoun (629, 2.4), and Justin Upton (607, 2.6) is forecast for 12.9 wins.

Trout’s excellence isn’t much of a surprise, of course. Much more mysterious is the near future of Shohei Ohtani (355, 0.9). ZiPS calls for the Japanese wunderkind to record a league-average batting line in his first year stateside. Combined with standard corner-outfield defense (Szymborski projects Ohtani in right field), the result is just less than a win in just more than a half-season’s worth of plate appearances. The strength of Ohtani’s forecast is his .333 BABIP, the highest mark assessed to anyone on the club. The weakness? His 31.0% strikeout rate, itself nearly the highest. Ohtani, meanwhile, is projected for a relatively modest .186 isolated-power figure. Overall, it’s less promising than his pitching forecast.

None of this, of course, addresses offseason acquisition Zack Cozart (467, 2.7) or other offseason acquisition Ian Kinsler (584, 3.0). Nor will it. Address them, that is.

Pitchers
While his offensive forecast suggests that he’s best utilized in merely a platoon or bench role, Ohtani (140.0 IP, 2.8 zWAR) earns the best marks among Angels pitchers. His strikeout rate here (26.5%) is surpassed only by the figures assessed to the club’s two most dominant relievers, Blake Parker (31.1%) and Cam Bedrosian (26.9%). And while his projected walk rate (9.5%) skews high for a starting role — only three of 58 qualifiers recorded a higher mark in 2017 — there’s a real indication here that Ohtani could succeed against major-league hitters starting right now.

How well the rest of the rotation is equipped to contend with major-league hitters is less certain. Garrett Richards (136.1, 2.0), Matt Shoemaker (113.0, 1.4), and Tyler Skaggs (97.1, 1.2) all receive average or better numbers on a rate basis. None of them provided anything like a full complement of innings in 2017, however, which surely informs their modest projections for next season. The projection for JC Ramirez (138.1, 0.8) is modest for other reasons.

Blake Parker (56.2 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR) recorded just eight saves last year, but he appears to be the pitcher most qualified for high-leverage innings on this iteration of the Angels, projected by ZiPS to record an adjusted ERA that’s 25% better than league average. Jose Alvarez (61.2, 83, 0.8), Cam Bedrosian (51.1, 87, 0.6), and Jim Johnson (56.0, 87, 0.6) all fair well by the measure, too.

Bench/Prospects
Besides Ohtani, the club lacks much in the way of notable bench assistance. Neither Michael Hermosillo (502 PA, -0.3 zWAR) nor Jefry Marte (421, 0.2), for instance — the club’s likely reserves — is projected for anything much better (if better at all) than replacement level. Catcher Taylor Ward (426, 0.9) earns the top forecast among the club’s rookie-eligible prospects. The relatively anonymous Zach Houchins (547, 0.8) does alright, too.

One finds, among the pitchers, a forecast for Alex Meyer (91.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR). That’s merely what Meyer could have done in 2018: he’s expected to miss the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That leaves Andrew Heaney (87.0, 0.8) with the top forecast among pitchers excluded from the depth-chart image below.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.