2017 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Here’s the very easiest way to determine if a club is likely to possess at least an average collection of field players: determine if all the field players in question receive a forecast of two wins or better. Where the Seattle Mariners are concerned, that’s more or less the case.

The hypothetical right-field platoon of Seth Smith (410 PA, 1.4 zWAR) and Guillermo Heredia (523, 0.9) might represent a weak spot — as might a platoon of Dan Vogelbach (508, 1.0) and Danny Valencia (419, 1.4) at first. In both instances, however, there’s at least a path to competence. Beyond that, basically every other position in the starting lineup — including a left field occupied by the recently acquired Mitch Haniger (517, 1.9) — is average or better. Nor does this account for the nearly elite contributions of Robinson Cano (644, 4.2) and Kyle Seager (653, 4.8).

Pitchers
There are two ways pitcher WAR is calculated at FanGraphs — both by fielding-independent pitching (FIP) and by runs allowed (RA9). The first accounts only for those actions over which a pitcher exerts direct control (strikeouts, walks, home runs); the latter, for all runs conceded while the relevant pitcher is on the mound. Seattle’s rotation finished 19th in the majors by both measures this past year. The current roster doesn’t seem to offer much hope for improvement.

The 2016 season was the worst for Felix Hernandez (179.1 IP, 3.0 zWAR) basically in his career. He failed to record at least 30 starts for the first time since he debuted as a 19-year-old in 2005. He failed to record at least two wins both by FIP-WAR and RA9-WAR for the first time ever in his career — including that age-19 season. ZiPS calls for something more like his 2015 campaign, suggesting both that (a) he’s a candidate for positive regression and (b) he’s unlikely to reach the frenzied heights of his best years. No other starter is projected to produce even an average season, however.

One of the club’s very best pitchers by any measure is right-hander Edwin Diaz (79.1 IP, 67 ERA-, 1.5 zWAR). Given his recent history of working as a starter — including six of the 16 appearances he recorded at Triple-A Tacoma in 2016 — Diaz seems like a candidate for non-traditional closer usage.

Bench/Prospects
The five-player deal between Seattle and Tampa Bay on November 18 was distinctly not the most celebrated trade of the offseason. That said, utility everything Taylor Motter (492 PA, 1.4 zWAR) — acquired by the Mariners in that deal — now represents the club’s top bench player, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer. Heredia and Vogelbach, mentioned above, still retain their rookie eligibility. Beyond that pair, Boog Powell (406, 0.8), who’ll return from a suspension in 2017, receives the top projection among prospect types.

As for pitchers, the combination of Chris Heston (146.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR) and Cody Martin (129.1, 0.7) seem to represent the most promising of the club’s current starting-pitching depth. Reliever Tony Zych (45.2, 0.6), meanwhile, actually receives the second-best ERA projection (75 ERA-) on the entire team, just after Edwin Diaz and before Evan Scribner (79 ERA-).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.