2018 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Batters
Baltimore’s roster could look somewhat different on Opening Day than it does presently. If the club ends up trading Manny Machado (688 PA, 4.9 zWAR) — which reports suggest is at least a possibility — then other players entering their final year with the club might also be dealt. Among hitters, that would include Adam Jones (616, 1.8).
Such moves, were they to occur, would leave few wins behind in Charm City. With the exception of Jones, Machado, and Jonathan Schoop (629, 3.0), no position player in the organization is forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to record two or more wins. It’s possible that a return for Machado would yield major-league talent. It’s unlikely, however, that the club would opt for present value over future.
The team does feature some pieces with possible upside. The projections for Tim Beckham (509, 1.4), Austin Hays (614, 1.5), and Trey Mancini (608, 1.5) probably all feature larger error bars than is typical. That triumvirate will remain under team control through 2020, at least. Unfortunately, the club will continue to owe Chris Davis (541, 1.3) roughly $20 million per annum for a couple years after that.
Pitchers
Orioles pitchers recorded the fifth-worst collective WAR among the league’s staffs this past season, and a lack of depth in the rotation was largely to blame for that. Dylan Bundy (159.1 IP, 2.5 zWAR) and Kevin Gausman (178.0, 2.6) accounted for 5.2 wins in 2017. The rotation as a whole? Just 5.5 wins. Unless the team acquires some arms this offseason, the 2018 campaign is almost certain to resemble the 2017 one in this regard.
As for the bullpen, it’s a real strength as presently constructed. Brad Brach (66.2, 73 ERA-, 1.5 zWAR) and Zach Britton (53.0 IP, 65 ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) are both well suited to high-leverage roles. They’re also both entering the final year of their contracts, though, meaning they might not remain employed by the Orioles for much longer. Even in their absence, the relief corps would probably remain above average, with Mychal Givens (73.2, 75, 1.6) and Darren O’Day (52.0, 70, 1.2) both representing talented late-inning options.
Bench/Prospects
Despite having recorded just 63 major-league plate appearances, Austin Hays is currently a legitimate — and, it would appear, deserving — candidate for a starting role. Outfielder Cedric Mullins (460 PA, 0.6 zWAR) and catcher Austin Wynns (391, 0.7), both rookie eligible, receive the next best projections among position players excluded from the depth-chart image below. Reliever Ryan Meisinger (67.2, 87 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) appears to earn that distinction among pitchers.
Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manny Machado | R | 25 | 3B | 688 | 91 | 174 | 34 | 1 | 34 | 100 | 9 | 4 |
Jonathan Schoop | R | 26 | 2B | 629 | 79 | 154 | 30 | 0 | 31 | 99 | 2 | 0 |
Adam Jones | R | 32 | CF | 616 | 76 | 155 | 24 | 2 | 27 | 80 | 3 | 1 |
Austin Hays | R | 22 | CF | 614 | 72 | 163 | 29 | 4 | 24 | 88 | 4 | 8 |
Trey Mancini | R | 26 | LF | 608 | 69 | 151 | 26 | 4 | 27 | 81 | 2 | 1 |
Tim Beckham | R | 28 | SS | 509 | 58 | 120 | 18 | 5 | 19 | 62 | 5 | 5 |
Chris Davis | L | 32 | 1B | 541 | 73 | 105 | 18 | 0 | 31 | 81 | 1 | 1 |
Seth Smith | L | 35 | RF | 377 | 48 | 85 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
Chance Sisco | L | 23 | C | 429 | 48 | 96 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 3 | 2 |
Mark Trumbo | R | 32 | DH | 565 | 72 | 129 | 22 | 1 | 31 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Caleb Joseph | R | 32 | C | 282 | 27 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Austin Wynns | R | 27 | C | 391 | 38 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 1 |
Francisco Pena | R | 28 | C | 278 | 31 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 1 |
Cedric Mullins | B | 23 | CF | 460 | 54 | 104 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 52 | 12 | 7 |
Mike Yastrzemski | L | 27 | RF | 475 | 53 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 6 | 3 |
Johnny Giavotella | R | 30 | 2B | 436 | 48 | 107 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 5 | 3 |
Ryan Flaherty | L | 31 | 2B | 216 | 24 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
Chris Dickerson | L | 36 | LF | 274 | 30 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 6 | 2 |
Ademar Rifaela | L | 23 | RF | 503 | 57 | 111 | 19 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 5 | 5 |
J.J. Hardy | R | 35 | SS | 370 | 35 | 80 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
Audry Perez | R | 29 | C | 264 | 25 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Ruben Tejada | R | 28 | SS | 340 | 36 | 75 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 2 |
Pedro Alvarez | L | 31 | 1B | 532 | 61 | 118 | 22 | 1 | 28 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
Anthony Santander | B | 23 | RF | 463 | 57 | 106 | 24 | 0 | 18 | 60 | 4 | 4 |
Paul Janish | R | 35 | SS | 299 | 24 | 59 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 |
Sharlon Schoop | R | 31 | 2B | 249 | 23 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan Mountcastle | R | 21 | SS | 553 | 59 | 131 | 33 | 2 | 16 | 62 | 7 | 3 |
Robert Andino | R | 34 | 2B | 314 | 30 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 2 | 1 |
Logan Schafer | L | 31 | CF | 380 | 36 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 2 |
Angelo Mora | B | 25 | 2B | 429 | 38 | 93 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 4 | 4 |
D.J. Stewart | L | 24 | LF | 528 | 59 | 103 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 54 | 15 | 7 |
David Washington | L | 27 | 1B | 432 | 51 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 23 | 59 | 4 | 3 |
Alex Castellanos | R | 31 | 3B | 241 | 26 | 45 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 2 | 1 |
Joey Rickard | R | 27 | RF | 371 | 39 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 9 | 2 |
Chris Johnson | R | 33 | 3B | 313 | 27 | 70 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
Luis Sardinas | B | 25 | 2B | 449 | 44 | 107 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 9 | 5 |
Craig Gentry | R | 34 | RF | 318 | 34 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 6 |
Drew Dosch | L | 26 | 3B | 510 | 49 | 107 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 3 | 2 |
Jaycob Brugman | L | 26 | CF | 481 | 47 | 100 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 45 | 5 | 4 |
Steve Wilkerson | B | 26 | 2B | 446 | 41 | 88 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 6 | 6 |
Adrian Marin | R | 24 | 2B | 484 | 43 | 102 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 9 | 5 |
Glynn Davis | R | 26 | CF | 384 | 34 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 7 |
Aderlin Rodriguez | R | 26 | 1B | 518 | 54 | 115 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 62 | 1 | 1 |
Jomar Reyes | R | 21 | 3B | 417 | 42 | 95 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 0 |
Randolph Gassaway | R | 23 | LF | 482 | 46 | 111 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 2 | 3 |
Jay Gonzalez | L | 26 | RF | 430 | 38 | 77 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 22 | 10 |
Garabez Rosa | R | 28 | RF | 521 | 49 | 121 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 49 | 2 | 4 |
***
Player | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manny Machado | 688 | 7.6% | 16.9% | .220 | .290 | .278 | .333 | .498 | .348 | 116 |
Jonathan Schoop | 629 | 4.6% | 21.6% | .211 | .291 | .264 | .307 | .474 | .330 | 104 |
Adam Jones | 616 | 4.2% | 17.5% | .189 | .286 | .269 | .306 | .458 | .322 | 98 |
Austin Hays | 614 | 3.4% | 19.5% | .188 | .315 | .281 | .310 | .468 | .329 | 103 |
Trey Mancini | 608 | 6.3% | 24.7% | .205 | .320 | .269 | .319 | .473 | .335 | 107 |
Tim Beckham | 509 | 6.1% | 27.3% | .180 | .320 | .255 | .303 | .435 | .314 | 93 |
Chris Davis | 541 | 11.5% | 36.2% | .236 | .300 | .223 | .318 | .459 | .328 | 102 |
Seth Smith | 377 | 10.6% | 20.4% | .188 | .298 | .258 | .345 | .447 | .337 | 109 |
Chance Sisco | 429 | 7.0% | 27.3% | .147 | .321 | .247 | .312 | .394 | .306 | 88 |
Mark Trumbo | 565 | 7.1% | 25.1% | .224 | .279 | .247 | .301 | .470 | .325 | 101 |
Caleb Joseph | 282 | 5.0% | 25.2% | .141 | .276 | .224 | .268 | .365 | .272 | 65 |
Austin Wynns | 391 | 6.6% | 20.7% | .109 | .287 | .238 | .293 | .347 | .280 | 69 |
Francisco Pena | 278 | 4.0% | 18.7% | .137 | .273 | .243 | .274 | .380 | .280 | 70 |
Cedric Mullins | 460 | 5.4% | 21.7% | .171 | .281 | .243 | .282 | .414 | .294 | 79 |
Mike Yastrzemski | 475 | 7.2% | 27.8% | .162 | .289 | .226 | .286 | .388 | .289 | 76 |
Johnny Giavotella | 436 | 6.0% | 11.5% | .108 | .289 | .268 | .312 | .375 | .297 | 81 |
Ryan Flaherty | 216 | 9.7% | 22.7% | .126 | .263 | .216 | .302 | .342 | .283 | 72 |
Chris Dickerson | 274 | 9.5% | 31.0% | .139 | .294 | .213 | .296 | .352 | .283 | 72 |
Ademar Rifaela | 503 | 5.4% | 29.4% | .176 | .305 | .238 | .287 | .413 | .297 | 82 |
J.J. Hardy | 370 | 5.4% | 18.1% | .099 | .269 | .232 | .274 | .330 | .263 | 58 |
Audry Perez | 264 | 3.4% | 17.4% | .103 | .287 | .250 | .278 | .353 | .271 | 63 |
Ruben Tejada | 340 | 8.5% | 15.0% | .100 | .282 | .249 | .322 | .349 | .294 | 80 |
Pedro Alvarez | 532 | 7.5% | 27.1% | .222 | .283 | .242 | .301 | .464 | .321 | 98 |
Anthony Santander | 463 | 6.0% | 24.4% | .185 | .297 | .251 | .305 | .436 | .314 | 93 |
Paul Janish | 299 | 6.4% | 15.7% | .048 | .258 | .218 | .277 | .266 | .245 | 46 |
Sharlon Schoop | 249 | 5.6% | 24.9% | .121 | .262 | .212 | .262 | .333 | .259 | 55 |
Ryan Mountcastle | 553 | 2.9% | 23.0% | .160 | .294 | .247 | .271 | .408 | .286 | 74 |
Robert Andino | 314 | 4.8% | 27.7% | .122 | .277 | .216 | .256 | .338 | .256 | 54 |
Logan Schafer | 380 | 6.8% | 18.4% | .094 | .270 | .225 | .282 | .319 | .263 | 58 |
Angelo Mora | 429 | 5.1% | 24.7% | .104 | .298 | .231 | .272 | .335 | .262 | 58 |
D.J. Stewart | 528 | 9.7% | 25.2% | .141 | .276 | .221 | .305 | .362 | .292 | 78 |
David Washington | 432 | 7.6% | 42.1% | .220 | .316 | .213 | .273 | .433 | .299 | 82 |
Alex Castellanos | 241 | 5.8% | 34.0% | .167 | .278 | .203 | .261 | .369 | .270 | 63 |
Joey Rickard | 371 | 6.7% | 21.3% | .098 | .294 | .238 | .296 | .336 | .278 | 68 |
Chris Johnson | 313 | 4.5% | 31.3% | .121 | .323 | .236 | .272 | .357 | .270 | 63 |
Luis Sardinas | 449 | 4.0% | 16.3% | .076 | .297 | .253 | .286 | .329 | .267 | 61 |
Craig Gentry | 318 | 6.9% | 22.3% | .066 | .274 | .216 | .279 | .282 | .252 | 50 |
Drew Dosch | 510 | 5.9% | 25.9% | .106 | .295 | .226 | .275 | .332 | .263 | 58 |
Jaycob Brugman | 481 | 8.1% | 23.5% | .121 | .284 | .229 | .293 | .350 | .279 | 69 |
Steve Wilkerson | 446 | 6.3% | 28.7% | .074 | .300 | .216 | .273 | .289 | .250 | 49 |
Adrian Marin | 484 | 4.1% | 24.2% | .075 | .292 | .224 | .259 | .298 | .244 | 45 |
Glynn Davis | 384 | 4.9% | 29.2% | .084 | .303 | .218 | .260 | .303 | .246 | 46 |
Aderlin Rodriguez | 518 | 4.8% | 26.8% | .152 | .294 | .237 | .278 | .389 | .283 | 72 |
Jomar Reyes | 417 | 3.4% | 23.0% | .114 | .293 | .240 | .269 | .354 | .267 | 61 |
Randolph Gassaway | 482 | 4.1% | 21.2% | .096 | .294 | .243 | .276 | .339 | .266 | 60 |
Jay Gonzalez | 430 | 9.8% | 31.2% | .034 | .308 | .201 | .279 | .235 | .237 | 41 |
Garabez Rosa | 521 | 2.1% | 25.9% | .091 | .309 | .241 | .260 | .332 | .254 | 52 |
***
Player | PA | RC/27 | OPS+ | Def | zWAR | No.1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manny Machado | 688 | 6.2 | 122 | 10 | 4.9 | Edwin Encarnacion |
Jonathan Schoop | 629 | 5.4 | 108 | 3 | 3.0 | Bret Boone |
Adam Jones | 616 | 5.2 | 103 | -4 | 1.8 | Rondell White |
Austin Hays | 614 | 5.2 | 107 | -7 | 1.5 | Jose Guillen |
Trey Mancini | 608 | 5.6 | 111 | -4 | 1.5 | George Scott |
Tim Beckham | 509 | 4.7 | 97 | -3 | 1.4 | Kurt Abbott |
Chris Davis | 541 | 5.0 | 107 | 3 | 1.3 | Graham Koonce |
Seth Smith | 377 | 5.6 | 113 | -1 | 1.2 | Al Zarilla |
Chance Sisco | 429 | 4.4 | 90 | -5 | 1.0 | Rich Gedman |
Mark Trumbo | 565 | 5.1 | 105 | 0 | 1.0 | Walt Dropo |
Caleb Joseph | 282 | 3.4 | 70 | 6 | 0.8 | Chad Moeller |
Austin Wynns | 391 | 3.6 | 73 | 2 | 0.7 | Trey Lunsford |
Francisco Pena | 278 | 3.7 | 75 | 3 | 0.6 | Yamid Haad |
Cedric Mullins | 460 | 4.1 | 86 | 0 | 0.6 | George Wright |
Mike Yastrzemski | 475 | 3.9 | 81 | 6 | 0.3 | Justin Bowles |
Johnny Giavotella | 436 | 4.3 | 86 | -3 | 0.3 | Garth Iorg |
Ryan Flaherty | 216 | 3.6 | 75 | 2 | 0.3 | Shanie Dugas |
Chris Dickerson | 274 | 3.7 | 75 | 5 | 0.2 | Curtis Pride |
Ademar Rifaela | 503 | 4.1 | 87 | 2 | 0.2 | Rich Murray |
J.J. Hardy | 370 | 3.1 | 63 | 4 | 0.1 | Kevin Baez |
Audry Perez | 264 | 3.5 | 70 | -1 | 0.1 | Omir Santos |
Ruben Tejada | 340 | 3.9 | 83 | -4 | 0.1 | Larry Brown |
Pedro Alvarez | 532 | 5.0 | 103 | -7 | 0.1 | J.R. Phillips |
Anthony Santander | 463 | 4.7 | 98 | -5 | 0.1 | Jermaine Dye |
Paul Janish | 299 | 2.5 | 49 | 5 | -0.2 | Dal Maxvill |
Sharlon Schoop | 249 | 2.9 | 60 | 3 | -0.2 | Chris Petersen |
Ryan Mountcastle | 553 | 4.0 | 81 | -10 | -0.3 | Charlie Hayes |
Robert Andino | 314 | 3.0 | 59 | 3 | -0.3 | Pete Mackanin |
Logan Schafer | 380 | 3.1 | 63 | 1 | -0.4 | Joe Simpson |
Angelo Mora | 429 | 3.1 | 64 | 2 | -0.4 | Juan Melo |
D.J. Stewart | 528 | 3.8 | 80 | -2 | -0.4 | Adam Leggett |
David Washington | 432 | 4.0 | 87 | -3 | -0.5 | Wes Clements |
Alex Castellanos | 241 | 3.3 | 69 | -4 | -0.6 | Caonabo Cosme |
Joey Rickard | 371 | 3.7 | 72 | -1 | -0.6 | Tommy Watkins |
Chris Johnson | 313 | 3.5 | 69 | -4 | -0.6 | Wes Helms |
Luis Sardinas | 449 | 3.4 | 67 | -2 | -0.7 | Gus Polidor |
Craig Gentry | 318 | 2.7 | 54 | 5 | -0.7 | Thomas Johnson |
Drew Dosch | 510 | 3.2 | 64 | -1 | -0.7 | Javier Castillo |
Jaycob Brugman | 481 | 3.5 | 74 | -8 | -0.8 | Jeff Barry |
Steve Wilkerson | 446 | 2.6 | 53 | 3 | -0.9 | John Hotchkiss |
Adrian Marin | 484 | 2.7 | 51 | 5 | -0.9 | Mike Huyler |
Glynn Davis | 384 | 2.6 | 52 | 2 | -1.0 | Robert Whitfield |
Aderlin Rodriguez | 518 | 3.8 | 79 | -2 | -1.1 | Danny Matienzo |
Jomar Reyes | 417 | 3.4 | 67 | -8 | -1.1 | Fred Manrique |
Randolph Gassaway | 482 | 3.2 | 66 | -1 | -1.4 | Kevin Hankerd |
Jay Gonzalez | 430 | 2.3 | 42 | 5 | -1.6 | Darrell Dent |
Garabez Rosa | 521 | 2.9 | 59 | 1 | -1.8 | Keith Reed |
***
Player | T | Age | G | GS | IP | K | BB | HR | H | R | ER |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Gausman | R | 27 | 32 | 32 | 178.0 | 170 | 56 | 26 | 181 | 90 | 84 |
Dylan Bundy | R | 25 | 26 | 26 | 159.3 | 149 | 48 | 23 | 150 | 78 | 73 |
Mychal Givens | R | 28 | 64 | 0 | 73.7 | 88 | 31 | 7 | 59 | 29 | 27 |
Brad Brach | R | 32 | 62 | 0 | 66.7 | 76 | 26 | 6 | 54 | 26 | 24 |
Zach Britton | L | 30 | 55 | 0 | 53.0 | 51 | 20 | 2 | 44 | 18 | 17 |
Darren O’Day | R | 35 | 56 | 0 | 52.0 | 67 | 18 | 6 | 40 | 19 | 18 |
Jeremy Hellickson | R | 31 | 27 | 27 | 141.7 | 94 | 38 | 24 | 155 | 83 | 78 |
Ryan Meisinger | R | 24 | 42 | 0 | 67.7 | 60 | 27 | 6 | 64 | 31 | 29 |
Tanner Scott | L | 23 | 32 | 20 | 66.0 | 76 | 63 | 3 | 53 | 35 | 33 |
Wade Miley | L | 31 | 28 | 28 | 150.7 | 129 | 64 | 22 | 162 | 90 | 84 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | R | 34 | 27 | 23 | 131.0 | 119 | 58 | 19 | 135 | 78 | 73 |
Donnie Hart | L | 27 | 63 | 0 | 59.3 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 60 | 28 | 26 |
Mike Wright | R | 28 | 29 | 19 | 115.7 | 87 | 36 | 19 | 125 | 68 | 64 |
Richard Bleier | L | 31 | 58 | 0 | 66.7 | 32 | 12 | 8 | 75 | 33 | 31 |
Stefan Crichton | R | 26 | 41 | 2 | 68.0 | 50 | 23 | 8 | 73 | 36 | 34 |
Jason Gurka | L | 30 | 41 | 1 | 52.3 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 53 | 27 | 25 |
Miguel Castro | R | 23 | 48 | 0 | 85.3 | 52 | 32 | 9 | 90 | 46 | 43 |
Perci Garner | R | 29 | 32 | 0 | 48.3 | 44 | 32 | 3 | 45 | 25 | 23 |
Matt Wotherspoon | R | 26 | 35 | 4 | 73.0 | 71 | 34 | 11 | 72 | 42 | 39 |
Jeff Ferrell | R | 27 | 56 | 0 | 58.7 | 54 | 19 | 9 | 61 | 31 | 29 |
Chris Tillman | R | 30 | 27 | 25 | 130.7 | 96 | 54 | 22 | 140 | 82 | 77 |
Jason Garcia | R | 25 | 33 | 7 | 85.7 | 58 | 50 | 9 | 91 | 51 | 48 |
Gabriel Ynoa | R | 25 | 30 | 25 | 145.3 | 85 | 36 | 26 | 173 | 91 | 85 |
Josh Edgin | L | 31 | 50 | 0 | 39.0 | 32 | 21 | 4 | 39 | 20 | 19 |
Hunter Harvey | R | 23 | 8 | 8 | 16.7 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 8 |
Chris Lee | L | 25 | 25 | 20 | 112.0 | 64 | 54 | 14 | 128 | 71 | 66 |
Tyler Wilson | R | 28 | 27 | 20 | 121.0 | 73 | 35 | 21 | 142 | 77 | 72 |
Jhan Marinez | R | 29 | 45 | 0 | 59.0 | 47 | 28 | 8 | 62 | 33 | 31 |
Andrew Faulkner | L | 25 | 47 | 0 | 46.3 | 37 | 29 | 5 | 46 | 27 | 25 |
Jimmy Yacabonis | R | 26 | 53 | 0 | 68.7 | 51 | 44 | 6 | 69 | 41 | 38 |
Zach Stewart | R | 31 | 21 | 19 | 103.3 | 69 | 43 | 17 | 118 | 67 | 63 |
Bobby Bundy | R | 28 | 22 | 0 | 29.0 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 31 | 18 | 17 |
Paco Rodriguez | L | 27 | 22 | 0 | 19.3 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 12 |
Joely Rodriguez | L | 26 | 57 | 0 | 65.7 | 44 | 32 | 8 | 72 | 40 | 37 |
Alec Asher | R | 26 | 29 | 19 | 111.0 | 76 | 30 | 24 | 129 | 75 | 70 |
Lucas Long | R | 25 | 28 | 16 | 114.3 | 81 | 35 | 25 | 134 | 77 | 72 |
John Means | L | 25 | 25 | 24 | 131.0 | 87 | 41 | 27 | 155 | 89 | 83 |
Keegan Akin | L | 23 | 20 | 20 | 86.3 | 75 | 52 | 16 | 92 | 60 | 56 |
Lucas Luetge | L | 31 | 34 | 0 | 42.7 | 37 | 22 | 9 | 46 | 29 | 27 |
Asher Wojciechowski | R | 29 | 27 | 15 | 89.3 | 75 | 33 | 20 | 103 | 62 | 58 |
Jayson Aquino | L | 25 | 25 | 22 | 119.7 | 78 | 44 | 23 | 140 | 81 | 76 |
Brandon Barker | R | 25 | 25 | 18 | 118.0 | 84 | 49 | 23 | 135 | 81 | 76 |
Jefri Hernandez | R | 27 | 38 | 0 | 58.3 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 66 | 40 | 37 |
David Hess | R | 24 | 25 | 24 | 131.0 | 86 | 52 | 27 | 153 | 92 | 86 |
Tim Berry | L | 27 | 43 | 0 | 49.3 | 42 | 39 | 8 | 52 | 35 | 33 |
Yefry Ramirez | R | 24 | 23 | 23 | 106.3 | 87 | 56 | 24 | 118 | 77 | 72 |
Jesus Liranzo | R | 23 | 31 | 10 | 56.7 | 60 | 44 | 14 | 58 | 45 | 42 |
Christian Binford | R | 25 | 25 | 23 | 136.3 | 86 | 47 | 29 | 166 | 98 | 92 |
Jordan Kipper | R | 25 | 25 | 20 | 119.0 | 54 | 44 | 24 | 151 | 88 | 82 |
Konner Wade | R | 26 | 31 | 17 | 104.0 | 59 | 34 | 28 | 135 | 86 | 80 |
Luis Lugo | L | 24 | 25 | 24 | 114.0 | 71 | 63 | 32 | 144 | 101 | 94 |
***
Player | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | ERA- | FIP- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Gausman | 178.0 | 771 | 22.0% | 7.3% | .301 | 4.25 | 4.14 | 96 | 92 |
Dylan Bundy | 159.3 | 676 | 22.0% | 7.1% | .283 | 4.12 | 4.18 | 93 | 92 |
Mychal Givens | 73.7 | 311 | 28.3% | 10.0% | .289 | 3.30 | 3.43 | 75 | 76 |
Brad Brach | 66.7 | 280 | 27.1% | 9.3% | .279 | 3.24 | 3.17 | 73 | 70 |
Zach Britton | 53.0 | 223 | 22.9% | 9.0% | .280 | 2.89 | 2.80 | 65 | 62 |
Darren O’Day | 52.0 | 214 | 31.3% | 8.4% | .286 | 3.12 | 3.23 | 70 | 71 |
Jeremy Hellickson | 141.7 | 618 | 15.2% | 6.1% | .287 | 4.96 | 4.94 | 112 | 109 |
Ryan Meisinger | 67.7 | 294 | 20.4% | 9.2% | .294 | 3.86 | 3.87 | 87 | 85 |
Tanner Scott | 66.0 | 314 | 24.2% | 20.1% | .298 | 4.50 | 4.49 | 102 | 99 |
Wade Miley | 150.7 | 678 | 19.0% | 9.4% | .305 | 5.02 | 4.68 | 113 | 103 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | 131.0 | 586 | 20.3% | 9.9% | .301 | 5.02 | 4.67 | 113 | 103 |
Donnie Hart | 59.3 | 256 | 18.0% | 7.0% | .297 | 3.94 | 3.93 | 89 | 87 |
Mike Wright | 115.7 | 508 | 17.1% | 7.1% | .296 | 4.98 | 4.90 | 113 | 108 |
Richard Bleier | 66.7 | 287 | 11.1% | 4.2% | .290 | 4.18 | 4.39 | 95 | 97 |
Stefan Crichton | 68.0 | 300 | 16.7% | 7.7% | .302 | 4.50 | 4.41 | 102 | 97 |
Jason Gurka | 52.3 | 226 | 21.2% | 7.1% | .301 | 4.30 | 4.04 | 97 | 89 |
Miguel Castro | 85.3 | 378 | 13.8% | 8.5% | .288 | 4.54 | 4.47 | 102 | 99 |
Perci Garner | 48.3 | 222 | 19.8% | 14.4% | .302 | 4.28 | 4.32 | 97 | 95 |
Matt Wotherspoon | 73.0 | 325 | 21.8% | 10.5% | .298 | 4.81 | 4.69 | 109 | 104 |
Jeff Ferrell | 58.7 | 256 | 21.1% | 7.4% | .302 | 4.45 | 4.28 | 101 | 95 |
Chris Tillman | 130.7 | 586 | 16.4% | 9.2% | .288 | 5.30 | 5.19 | 120 | 115 |
Jason Garcia | 85.7 | 398 | 14.6% | 12.6% | .297 | 5.04 | 5.10 | 114 | 113 |
Gabriel Ynoa | 145.3 | 645 | 13.2% | 5.6% | .299 | 5.26 | 5.20 | 119 | 115 |
Josh Edgin | 39.0 | 177 | 18.1% | 11.9% | .299 | 4.38 | 4.62 | 99 | 102 |
Hunter Harvey | 16.7 | 73 | 26.0% | 12.3% | .286 | 4.32 | 4.24 | 98 | 94 |
Chris Lee | 112.0 | 518 | 12.4% | 10.4% | .300 | 5.30 | 5.25 | 120 | 116 |
Tyler Wilson | 121.0 | 540 | 13.5% | 6.5% | .299 | 5.36 | 5.20 | 121 | 115 |
Jhan Marinez | 59.0 | 267 | 17.6% | 10.5% | .302 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 107 | 107 |
Andrew Faulkner | 46.3 | 214 | 17.3% | 13.6% | .291 | 4.86 | 4.84 | 110 | 107 |
Jimmy Yacabonis | 68.7 | 319 | 16.0% | 13.8% | .294 | 4.98 | 4.82 | 113 | 106 |
Zach Stewart | 103.3 | 471 | 14.6% | 9.1% | .301 | 5.49 | 5.38 | 124 | 119 |
Bobby Bundy | 29.0 | 133 | 15.8% | 11.3% | .297 | 5.28 | 5.26 | 119 | 116 |
Paco Rodriguez | 19.3 | 90 | 17.8% | 13.3% | .293 | 5.59 | 5.38 | 126 | 119 |
Joely Rodriguez | 65.7 | 301 | 14.6% | 10.6% | .300 | 5.07 | 4.95 | 115 | 110 |
Alec Asher | 111.0 | 492 | 15.4% | 6.1% | .296 | 5.68 | 5.57 | 128 | 123 |
Lucas Long | 114.3 | 512 | 15.8% | 6.8% | .299 | 5.67 | 5.66 | 128 | 125 |
John Means | 131.0 | 589 | 14.8% | 7.0% | .300 | 5.70 | 5.63 | 129 | 124 |
Keegan Akin | 86.3 | 403 | 18.6% | 12.9% | .298 | 5.84 | 5.81 | 132 | 128 |
Lucas Luetge | 42.7 | 196 | 18.9% | 11.2% | .294 | 5.70 | 5.78 | 129 | 128 |
Asher Wojciechowski | 89.3 | 404 | 18.6% | 8.2% | .306 | 5.84 | 5.63 | 132 | 124 |
Jayson Aquino | 119.7 | 543 | 14.4% | 8.1% | .298 | 5.72 | 5.61 | 129 | 124 |
Brandon Barker | 118.0 | 538 | 15.6% | 9.1% | .298 | 5.80 | 5.64 | 131 | 125 |
Jefri Hernandez | 58.3 | 271 | 14.8% | 11.1% | .299 | 5.71 | 5.71 | 129 | 126 |
David Hess | 131.0 | 598 | 14.4% | 8.7% | .296 | 5.91 | 5.85 | 134 | 129 |
Tim Berry | 49.3 | 239 | 17.6% | 16.3% | .299 | 6.02 | 6.06 | 136 | 134 |
Yefry Ramirez | 106.3 | 493 | 17.6% | 11.4% | .295 | 6.09 | 6.18 | 138 | 137 |
Jesus Liranzo | 56.7 | 272 | 22.1% | 16.2% | .293 | 6.67 | 6.79 | 151 | 150 |
Christian Binford | 136.3 | 622 | 13.8% | 7.6% | .302 | 6.07 | 5.83 | 137 | 129 |
Jordan Kipper | 119.0 | 552 | 9.8% | 8.0% | .300 | 6.20 | 6.16 | 140 | 136 |
Konner Wade | 104.0 | 481 | 12.3% | 7.1% | .302 | 6.92 | 6.68 | 156 | 148 |
Luis Lugo | 114.0 | 549 | 12.9% | 11.5% | .298 | 7.42 | 7.40 | 168 | 164 |
***
Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | zWAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Gausman | 178.0 | 8.60 | 2.83 | 1.31 | 101 | 2.6 | Sidney Ponson |
Dylan Bundy | 159.3 | 8.42 | 2.71 | 1.30 | 104 | 2.5 | Omar Olivares |
Mychal Givens | 73.7 | 10.75 | 3.79 | 0.86 | 129 | 1.6 | Frank Williams |
Brad Brach | 66.7 | 10.26 | 3.51 | 0.81 | 132 | 1.5 | Turk Wendell |
Zach Britton | 53.0 | 8.66 | 3.40 | 0.34 | 148 | 1.4 | Steve Kline |
Darren O’Day | 52.0 | 11.60 | 3.12 | 1.04 | 137 | 1.2 | Troy Percival |
Jeremy Hellickson | 141.7 | 5.97 | 2.41 | 1.52 | 86 | 0.9 | Ismael Valdez |
Ryan Meisinger | 67.7 | 7.98 | 3.59 | 0.80 | 111 | 0.9 | Turk Farrell |
Tanner Scott | 66.0 | 10.36 | 8.59 | 0.41 | 95 | 0.7 | Nolan Ryan |
Wade Miley | 150.7 | 7.71 | 3.82 | 1.31 | 84 | 0.7 | Shawn Estes |
Ubaldo Jimenez | 131.0 | 8.18 | 3.98 | 1.31 | 85 | 0.7 | Ken Hill |
Donnie Hart | 59.3 | 6.98 | 2.73 | 0.91 | 108 | 0.7 | Leo Kiely |
Mike Wright | 115.7 | 6.77 | 2.80 | 1.48 | 86 | 0.6 | Travis Smith |
Richard Bleier | 66.7 | 4.32 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 102 | 0.5 | Steve Hamilton |
Stefan Crichton | 68.0 | 6.62 | 3.04 | 1.06 | 95 | 0.4 | Jack Cassel |
Jason Gurka | 52.3 | 8.25 | 2.75 | 1.20 | 99 | 0.4 | Jason Kershner |
Miguel Castro | 85.3 | 5.48 | 3.38 | 0.95 | 94 | 0.4 | Elias Sosa |
Perci Garner | 48.3 | 8.19 | 5.96 | 0.56 | 98 | 0.3 | Ted Abernathy |
Matt Wotherspoon | 73.0 | 8.75 | 4.19 | 1.36 | 89 | 0.3 | Jared Hoerman |
Jeff Ferrell | 58.7 | 8.28 | 2.91 | 1.38 | 96 | 0.3 | Gary Majewski |
Chris Tillman | 130.7 | 6.61 | 3.72 | 1.52 | 81 | 0.3 | Dick Fowler |
Jason Garcia | 85.7 | 6.09 | 5.25 | 0.95 | 85 | 0.3 | Joe Hudson |
Gabriel Ynoa | 145.3 | 5.26 | 2.23 | 1.61 | 80 | 0.2 | Nick Blackburn |
Josh Edgin | 39.0 | 7.38 | 4.85 | 0.92 | 96 | 0.2 | Bill Kennedy |
Hunter Harvey | 16.7 | 10.26 | 4.86 | 1.08 | 99 | 0.2 | Floyd Youmans |
Chris Lee | 112.0 | 5.14 | 4.34 | 1.13 | 81 | 0.2 | Pete Cushing |
Tyler Wilson | 121.0 | 5.43 | 2.60 | 1.56 | 80 | 0.2 | Arnie Portocarrero |
Jhan Marinez | 59.0 | 7.17 | 4.27 | 1.22 | 89 | 0.1 | Bill Zuber |
Andrew Faulkner | 46.3 | 7.19 | 5.63 | 0.97 | 88 | 0.0 | Mike Cosgrove |
Jimmy Yacabonis | 68.7 | 6.68 | 5.77 | 0.79 | 86 | -0.1 | Hal Reniff |
Zach Stewart | 103.3 | 6.01 | 3.75 | 1.48 | 77 | -0.1 | Dick Fowler |
Bobby Bundy | 29.0 | 6.52 | 4.66 | 1.24 | 81 | -0.1 | Ed Sprague |
Paco Rodriguez | 19.3 | 7.45 | 5.59 | 1.40 | 75 | -0.2 | Dean Brueggemann |
Joely Rodriguez | 65.7 | 6.03 | 4.39 | 1.10 | 83 | -0.2 | Philip Barzilla |
Alec Asher | 111.0 | 6.16 | 2.43 | 1.95 | 75 | -0.3 | Doug Vanderweele |
Lucas Long | 114.3 | 6.38 | 2.76 | 1.97 | 75 | -0.3 | Jason Jones |
John Means | 131.0 | 5.98 | 2.82 | 1.85 | 75 | -0.3 | Austin Shappi |
Keegan Akin | 86.3 | 7.82 | 5.42 | 1.67 | 72 | -0.4 | Mike King |
Lucas Luetge | 42.7 | 7.80 | 4.64 | 1.90 | 75 | -0.4 | Eddie Oropesa |
Asher Wojciechowski | 89.3 | 7.56 | 3.32 | 2.01 | 73 | -0.4 | Jason Roach |
Jayson Aquino | 119.7 | 5.87 | 3.31 | 1.73 | 74 | -0.4 | Jason Dickson |
Brandon Barker | 118.0 | 6.41 | 3.74 | 1.75 | 73 | -0.6 | Andy Cook |
Jefri Hernandez | 58.3 | 6.17 | 4.63 | 1.54 | 74 | -0.6 | Sean Green |
David Hess | 131.0 | 5.91 | 3.57 | 1.85 | 72 | -0.6 | Andy Cook |
Tim Berry | 49.3 | 7.66 | 7.11 | 1.46 | 71 | -0.7 | Dean Brueggemann |
Yefry Ramirez | 106.3 | 7.36 | 4.74 | 2.03 | 70 | -0.7 | Wray Bergendahl |
Jesus Liranzo | 56.7 | 9.53 | 6.99 | 2.22 | 64 | -0.9 | Greg Ferlenda |
Christian Binford | 136.3 | 5.68 | 3.10 | 1.91 | 70 | -0.9 | Pat Ahearne |
Jordan Kipper | 119.0 | 4.08 | 3.33 | 1.82 | 69 | -1.0 | Pat Ahearne |
Konner Wade | 104.0 | 5.11 | 2.94 | 2.42 | 61 | -1.9 | Justin Pope |
Luis Lugo | 114.0 | 5.61 | 4.97 | 2.53 | 58 | -2.6 | Matt White |
***
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Why does the creator of ZiPS hate my team?
Not sure if you’re being serious or not, but Dan is actually a tortured Orioles fan as well.
very much a joke, but sweetened by Dan’s breakup with Os this week