2018 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Baltimore’s roster could look somewhat different on Opening Day than it does presently. If the club ends up trading Manny Machado (688 PA, 4.9 zWAR) — which reports suggest is at least a possibility — then other players entering their final year with the club might also be dealt. Among hitters, that would include Adam Jones (616, 1.8).

Such moves, were they to occur, would leave few wins behind in Charm City. With the exception of Jones, Machado, and Jonathan Schoop (629, 3.0), no position player in the organization is forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to record two or more wins. It’s possible that a return for Machado would yield major-league talent. It’s unlikely, however, that the club would opt for present value over future.

The team does feature some pieces with possible upside. The projections for Tim Beckham (509, 1.4), Austin Hays (614, 1.5), and Trey Mancini (608, 1.5) probably all feature larger error bars than is typical. That triumvirate will remain under team control through 2020, at least. Unfortunately, the club will continue to owe Chris Davis (541, 1.3) roughly $20 million per annum for a couple years after that.

Pitchers
Orioles pitchers recorded the fifth-worst collective WAR among the league’s staffs this past season, and a lack of depth in the rotation was largely to blame for that. Dylan Bundy (159.1 IP, 2.5 zWAR) and Kevin Gausman (178.0, 2.6) accounted for 5.2 wins in 2017. The rotation as a whole? Just 5.5 wins. Unless the team acquires some arms this offseason, the 2018 campaign is almost certain to resemble the 2017 one in this regard.

As for the bullpen, it’s a real strength as presently constructed. Brad Brach (66.2, 73 ERA-, 1.5 zWAR) and Zach Britton (53.0 IP, 65 ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) are both well suited to high-leverage roles. They’re also both entering the final year of their contracts, though, meaning they might not remain employed by the Orioles for much longer. Even in their absence, the relief corps would probably remain above average, with Mychal Givens (73.2, 75, 1.6) and Darren O’Day (52.0, 70, 1.2) both representing talented late-inning options.

Bench/Prospects
Despite having recorded just 63 major-league plate appearances, Austin Hays is currently a legitimate — and, it would appear, deserving — candidate for a starting role. Outfielder Cedric Mullins (460 PA, 0.6 zWAR) and catcher Austin Wynns (391, 0.7), both rookie eligible, receive the next best projections among position players excluded from the depth-chart image below. Reliever Ryan Meisinger (67.2, 87 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) appears to earn that distinction among pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles by Carson Cistulli!

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