2018 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles by Carson Cistulli December 13, 2017 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. ZiPS Projections 20182017ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters Baltimore’s roster could look somewhat different on Opening Day than it does presently. If the club ends up trading Manny Machado (688 PA, 4.9 zWAR) — which reports suggest is at least a possibility — then other players entering their final year with the club might also be dealt. Among hitters, that would include Adam Jones (616, 1.8). Such moves, were they to occur, would leave few wins behind in Charm City. With the exception of Jones, Machado, and Jonathan Schoop (629, 3.0), no position player in the organization is forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to record two or more wins. It’s possible that a return for Machado would yield major-league talent. It’s unlikely, however, that the club would opt for present value over future. The team does feature some pieces with possible upside. The projections for Tim Beckham (509, 1.4), Austin Hays (614, 1.5), and Trey Mancini (608, 1.5) probably all feature larger error bars than is typical. That triumvirate will remain under team control through 2020, at least. Unfortunately, the club will continue to owe Chris Davis (541, 1.3) roughly $20 million per annum for a couple years after that. Pitchers Orioles pitchers recorded the fifth-worst collective WAR among the league’s staffs this past season, and a lack of depth in the rotation was largely to blame for that. Dylan Bundy (159.1 IP, 2.5 zWAR) and Kevin Gausman (178.0, 2.6) accounted for 5.2 wins in 2017. The rotation as a whole? Just 5.5 wins. Unless the team acquires some arms this offseason, the 2018 campaign is almost certain to resemble the 2017 one in this regard. As for the bullpen, it’s a real strength as presently constructed. Brad Brach (66.2, 73 ERA-, 1.5 zWAR) and Zach Britton (53.0 IP, 65 ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) are both well suited to high-leverage roles. They’re also both entering the final year of their contracts, though, meaning they might not remain employed by the Orioles for much longer. Even in their absence, the relief corps would probably remain above average, with Mychal Givens (73.2, 75, 1.6) and Darren O’Day (52.0, 70, 1.2) both representing talented late-inning options. Bench/Prospects Despite having recorded just 63 major-league plate appearances, Austin Hays is currently a legitimate — and, it would appear, deserving — candidate for a starting role. Outfielder Cedric Mullins (460 PA, 0.6 zWAR) and catcher Austin Wynns (391, 0.7), both rookie eligible, receive the next best projections among position players excluded from the depth-chart image below. Reliever Ryan Meisinger (67.2, 87 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) appears to earn that distinction among pitchers. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Manny Machado R 25 3B 688 91 174 34 1 34 100 9 4 Jonathan Schoop R 26 2B 629 79 154 30 0 31 99 2 0 Adam Jones R 32 CF 616 76 155 24 2 27 80 3 1 Austin Hays R 22 CF 614 72 163 29 4 24 88 4 8 Trey Mancini R 26 LF 608 69 151 26 4 27 81 2 1 Tim Beckham R 28 SS 509 58 120 18 5 19 62 5 5 Chris Davis L 32 1B 541 73 105 18 0 31 81 1 1 Seth Smith L 35 RF 377 48 85 19 2 13 44 1 0 Chance Sisco L 23 C 429 48 96 21 0 12 48 3 2 Mark Trumbo R 32 DH 565 72 129 22 1 31 82 1 0 Caleb Joseph R 32 C 282 27 59 11 1 8 28 0 0 Austin Wynns R 27 C 391 38 85 16 1 7 33 1 1 Francisco Pena R 28 C 278 31 64 12 0 8 33 1 1 Cedric Mullins B 23 CF 460 54 104 22 3 15 52 12 7 Mike Yastrzemski L 27 RF 475 53 98 20 4 14 54 6 3 Johnny Giavotella R 30 2B 436 48 107 21 2 6 43 5 3 Ryan Flaherty L 31 2B 216 24 41 7 1 5 21 1 0 Chris Dickerson L 36 LF 274 30 52 9 2 7 24 6 2 Ademar Rifaela L 23 RF 503 57 111 19 3 19 64 5 5 J.J. Hardy R 35 SS 370 35 80 16 0 6 34 0 1 Audry Perez R 29 C 264 25 63 11 0 5 24 0 0 Ruben Tejada R 28 SS 340 36 75 15 0 5 29 0 2 Pedro Alvarez L 31 1B 532 61 118 22 1 28 83 2 0 Anthony Santander B 23 RF 463 57 106 24 0 18 60 4 4 Paul Janish R 35 SS 299 24 59 8 1 1 17 1 1 Sharlon Schoop R 31 2B 249 23 49 8 1 6 22 0 1 Ryan Mountcastle R 21 SS 553 59 131 33 2 16 62 7 3 Robert Andino R 34 2B 314 30 64 10 1 8 30 2 1 Logan Schafer L 31 CF 380 36 77 14 3 4 26 4 2 Angelo Mora B 25 2B 429 38 93 16 4 6 39 4 4 D.J. Stewart L 24 LF 528 59 103 20 2 14 54 15 7 David Washington L 27 1B 432 51 84 16 1 23 59 4 3 Alex Castellanos R 31 3B 241 26 45 11 1 8 27 2 1 Joey Rickard R 27 RF 371 39 80 16 1 5 27 9 2 Chris Johnson R 33 3B 313 27 70 12 0 8 34 1 0 Luis Sardinas B 25 2B 449 44 107 14 3 4 36 9 5 Craig Gentry R 34 RF 318 34 62 8 1 3 20 12 6 Drew Dosch L 26 3B 510 49 107 20 3 8 43 3 2 Jaycob Brugman L 26 CF 481 47 100 17 3 10 45 5 4 Steve Wilkerson B 26 2B 446 41 88 13 1 5 29 6 6 Adrian Marin R 24 2B 484 43 102 16 3 4 32 9 5 Glynn Davis R 26 CF 384 34 78 14 2 4 27 9 7 Aderlin Rodriguez R 26 1B 518 54 115 19 2 17 62 1 1 Jomar Reyes R 21 3B 417 42 95 14 2 9 39 2 0 Randolph Gassaway R 23 LF 482 46 111 18 1 8 44 2 3 Jay Gonzalez L 26 RF 430 38 77 9 2 0 19 22 10 Garabez Rosa R 28 RF 521 49 121 17 1 9 49 2 4 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Manny Machado 688 7.6% 16.9% .220 .290 .278 .333 .498 .348 116 Jonathan Schoop 629 4.6% 21.6% .211 .291 .264 .307 .474 .330 104 Adam Jones 616 4.2% 17.5% .189 .286 .269 .306 .458 .322 98 Austin Hays 614 3.4% 19.5% .188 .315 .281 .310 .468 .329 103 Trey Mancini 608 6.3% 24.7% .205 .320 .269 .319 .473 .335 107 Tim Beckham 509 6.1% 27.3% .180 .320 .255 .303 .435 .314 93 Chris Davis 541 11.5% 36.2% .236 .300 .223 .318 .459 .328 102 Seth Smith 377 10.6% 20.4% .188 .298 .258 .345 .447 .337 109 Chance Sisco 429 7.0% 27.3% .147 .321 .247 .312 .394 .306 88 Mark Trumbo 565 7.1% 25.1% .224 .279 .247 .301 .470 .325 101 Caleb Joseph 282 5.0% 25.2% .141 .276 .224 .268 .365 .272 65 Austin Wynns 391 6.6% 20.7% .109 .287 .238 .293 .347 .280 69 Francisco Pena 278 4.0% 18.7% .137 .273 .243 .274 .380 .280 70 Cedric Mullins 460 5.4% 21.7% .171 .281 .243 .282 .414 .294 79 Mike Yastrzemski 475 7.2% 27.8% .162 .289 .226 .286 .388 .289 76 Johnny Giavotella 436 6.0% 11.5% .108 .289 .268 .312 .375 .297 81 Ryan Flaherty 216 9.7% 22.7% .126 .263 .216 .302 .342 .283 72 Chris Dickerson 274 9.5% 31.0% .139 .294 .213 .296 .352 .283 72 Ademar Rifaela 503 5.4% 29.4% .176 .305 .238 .287 .413 .297 82 J.J. Hardy 370 5.4% 18.1% .099 .269 .232 .274 .330 .263 58 Audry Perez 264 3.4% 17.4% .103 .287 .250 .278 .353 .271 63 Ruben Tejada 340 8.5% 15.0% .100 .282 .249 .322 .349 .294 80 Pedro Alvarez 532 7.5% 27.1% .222 .283 .242 .301 .464 .321 98 Anthony Santander 463 6.0% 24.4% .185 .297 .251 .305 .436 .314 93 Paul Janish 299 6.4% 15.7% .048 .258 .218 .277 .266 .245 46 Sharlon Schoop 249 5.6% 24.9% .121 .262 .212 .262 .333 .259 55 Ryan Mountcastle 553 2.9% 23.0% .160 .294 .247 .271 .408 .286 74 Robert Andino 314 4.8% 27.7% .122 .277 .216 .256 .338 .256 54 Logan Schafer 380 6.8% 18.4% .094 .270 .225 .282 .319 .263 58 Angelo Mora 429 5.1% 24.7% .104 .298 .231 .272 .335 .262 58 D.J. Stewart 528 9.7% 25.2% .141 .276 .221 .305 .362 .292 78 David Washington 432 7.6% 42.1% .220 .316 .213 .273 .433 .299 82 Alex Castellanos 241 5.8% 34.0% .167 .278 .203 .261 .369 .270 63 Joey Rickard 371 6.7% 21.3% .098 .294 .238 .296 .336 .278 68 Chris Johnson 313 4.5% 31.3% .121 .323 .236 .272 .357 .270 63 Luis Sardinas 449 4.0% 16.3% .076 .297 .253 .286 .329 .267 61 Craig Gentry 318 6.9% 22.3% .066 .274 .216 .279 .282 .252 50 Drew Dosch 510 5.9% 25.9% .106 .295 .226 .275 .332 .263 58 Jaycob Brugman 481 8.1% 23.5% .121 .284 .229 .293 .350 .279 69 Steve Wilkerson 446 6.3% 28.7% .074 .300 .216 .273 .289 .250 49 Adrian Marin 484 4.1% 24.2% .075 .292 .224 .259 .298 .244 45 Glynn Davis 384 4.9% 29.2% .084 .303 .218 .260 .303 .246 46 Aderlin Rodriguez 518 4.8% 26.8% .152 .294 .237 .278 .389 .283 72 Jomar Reyes 417 3.4% 23.0% .114 .293 .240 .269 .354 .267 61 Randolph Gassaway 482 4.1% 21.2% .096 .294 .243 .276 .339 .266 60 Jay Gonzalez 430 9.8% 31.2% .034 .308 .201 .279 .235 .237 41 Garabez Rosa 521 2.1% 25.9% .091 .309 .241 .260 .332 .254 52 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Manny Machado 688 6.2 122 10 4.9 Edwin Encarnacion Jonathan Schoop 629 5.4 108 3 3.0 Bret Boone Adam Jones 616 5.2 103 -4 1.8 Rondell White Austin Hays 614 5.2 107 -7 1.5 Jose Guillen Trey Mancini 608 5.6 111 -4 1.5 George Scott Tim Beckham 509 4.7 97 -3 1.4 Kurt Abbott Chris Davis 541 5.0 107 3 1.3 Graham Koonce Seth Smith 377 5.6 113 -1 1.2 Al Zarilla Chance Sisco 429 4.4 90 -5 1.0 Rich Gedman Mark Trumbo 565 5.1 105 0 1.0 Walt Dropo Caleb Joseph 282 3.4 70 6 0.8 Chad Moeller Austin Wynns 391 3.6 73 2 0.7 Trey Lunsford Francisco Pena 278 3.7 75 3 0.6 Yamid Haad Cedric Mullins 460 4.1 86 0 0.6 George Wright Mike Yastrzemski 475 3.9 81 6 0.3 Justin Bowles Johnny Giavotella 436 4.3 86 -3 0.3 Garth Iorg Ryan Flaherty 216 3.6 75 2 0.3 Shanie Dugas Chris Dickerson 274 3.7 75 5 0.2 Curtis Pride Ademar Rifaela 503 4.1 87 2 0.2 Rich Murray J.J. Hardy 370 3.1 63 4 0.1 Kevin Baez Audry Perez 264 3.5 70 -1 0.1 Omir Santos Ruben Tejada 340 3.9 83 -4 0.1 Larry Brown Pedro Alvarez 532 5.0 103 -7 0.1 J.R. Phillips Anthony Santander 463 4.7 98 -5 0.1 Jermaine Dye Paul Janish 299 2.5 49 5 -0.2 Dal Maxvill Sharlon Schoop 249 2.9 60 3 -0.2 Chris Petersen Ryan Mountcastle 553 4.0 81 -10 -0.3 Charlie Hayes Robert Andino 314 3.0 59 3 -0.3 Pete Mackanin Logan Schafer 380 3.1 63 1 -0.4 Joe Simpson Angelo Mora 429 3.1 64 2 -0.4 Juan Melo D.J. Stewart 528 3.8 80 -2 -0.4 Adam Leggett David Washington 432 4.0 87 -3 -0.5 Wes Clements Alex Castellanos 241 3.3 69 -4 -0.6 Caonabo Cosme Joey Rickard 371 3.7 72 -1 -0.6 Tommy Watkins Chris Johnson 313 3.5 69 -4 -0.6 Wes Helms Luis Sardinas 449 3.4 67 -2 -0.7 Gus Polidor Craig Gentry 318 2.7 54 5 -0.7 Thomas Johnson Drew Dosch 510 3.2 64 -1 -0.7 Javier Castillo Jaycob Brugman 481 3.5 74 -8 -0.8 Jeff Barry Steve Wilkerson 446 2.6 53 3 -0.9 John Hotchkiss Adrian Marin 484 2.7 51 5 -0.9 Mike Huyler Glynn Davis 384 2.6 52 2 -1.0 Robert Whitfield Aderlin Rodriguez 518 3.8 79 -2 -1.1 Danny Matienzo Jomar Reyes 417 3.4 67 -8 -1.1 Fred Manrique Randolph Gassaway 482 3.2 66 -1 -1.4 Kevin Hankerd Jay Gonzalez 430 2.3 42 5 -1.6 Darrell Dent Garabez Rosa 521 2.9 59 1 -1.8 Keith Reed *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Kevin Gausman R 27 32 32 178.0 170 56 26 181 90 84 Dylan Bundy R 25 26 26 159.3 149 48 23 150 78 73 Mychal Givens R 28 64 0 73.7 88 31 7 59 29 27 Brad Brach R 32 62 0 66.7 76 26 6 54 26 24 Zach Britton L 30 55 0 53.0 51 20 2 44 18 17 Darren O’Day R 35 56 0 52.0 67 18 6 40 19 18 Jeremy Hellickson R 31 27 27 141.7 94 38 24 155 83 78 Ryan Meisinger R 24 42 0 67.7 60 27 6 64 31 29 Tanner Scott L 23 32 20 66.0 76 63 3 53 35 33 Wade Miley L 31 28 28 150.7 129 64 22 162 90 84 Ubaldo Jimenez R 34 27 23 131.0 119 58 19 135 78 73 Donnie Hart L 27 63 0 59.3 46 18 6 60 28 26 Mike Wright R 28 29 19 115.7 87 36 19 125 68 64 Richard Bleier L 31 58 0 66.7 32 12 8 75 33 31 Stefan Crichton R 26 41 2 68.0 50 23 8 73 36 34 Jason Gurka L 30 41 1 52.3 48 16 7 53 27 25 Miguel Castro R 23 48 0 85.3 52 32 9 90 46 43 Perci Garner R 29 32 0 48.3 44 32 3 45 25 23 Matt Wotherspoon R 26 35 4 73.0 71 34 11 72 42 39 Jeff Ferrell R 27 56 0 58.7 54 19 9 61 31 29 Chris Tillman R 30 27 25 130.7 96 54 22 140 82 77 Jason Garcia R 25 33 7 85.7 58 50 9 91 51 48 Gabriel Ynoa R 25 30 25 145.3 85 36 26 173 91 85 Josh Edgin L 31 50 0 39.0 32 21 4 39 20 19 Hunter Harvey R 23 8 8 16.7 19 9 2 14 9 8 Chris Lee L 25 25 20 112.0 64 54 14 128 71 66 Tyler Wilson R 28 27 20 121.0 73 35 21 142 77 72 Jhan Marinez R 29 45 0 59.0 47 28 8 62 33 31 Andrew Faulkner L 25 47 0 46.3 37 29 5 46 27 25 Jimmy Yacabonis R 26 53 0 68.7 51 44 6 69 41 38 Zach Stewart R 31 21 19 103.3 69 43 17 118 67 63 Bobby Bundy R 28 22 0 29.0 21 15 4 31 18 17 Paco Rodriguez L 27 22 0 19.3 16 12 3 20 13 12 Joely Rodriguez L 26 57 0 65.7 44 32 8 72 40 37 Alec Asher R 26 29 19 111.0 76 30 24 129 75 70 Lucas Long R 25 28 16 114.3 81 35 25 134 77 72 John Means L 25 25 24 131.0 87 41 27 155 89 83 Keegan Akin L 23 20 20 86.3 75 52 16 92 60 56 Lucas Luetge L 31 34 0 42.7 37 22 9 46 29 27 Asher Wojciechowski R 29 27 15 89.3 75 33 20 103 62 58 Jayson Aquino L 25 25 22 119.7 78 44 23 140 81 76 Brandon Barker R 25 25 18 118.0 84 49 23 135 81 76 Jefri Hernandez R 27 38 0 58.3 40 30 10 66 40 37 David Hess R 24 25 24 131.0 86 52 27 153 92 86 Tim Berry L 27 43 0 49.3 42 39 8 52 35 33 Yefry Ramirez R 24 23 23 106.3 87 56 24 118 77 72 Jesus Liranzo R 23 31 10 56.7 60 44 14 58 45 42 Christian Binford R 25 25 23 136.3 86 47 29 166 98 92 Jordan Kipper R 25 25 20 119.0 54 44 24 151 88 82 Konner Wade R 26 31 17 104.0 59 34 28 135 86 80 Luis Lugo L 24 25 24 114.0 71 63 32 144 101 94 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Kevin Gausman 178.0 771 22.0% 7.3% .301 4.25 4.14 96 92 Dylan Bundy 159.3 676 22.0% 7.1% .283 4.12 4.18 93 92 Mychal Givens 73.7 311 28.3% 10.0% .289 3.30 3.43 75 76 Brad Brach 66.7 280 27.1% 9.3% .279 3.24 3.17 73 70 Zach Britton 53.0 223 22.9% 9.0% .280 2.89 2.80 65 62 Darren O’Day 52.0 214 31.3% 8.4% .286 3.12 3.23 70 71 Jeremy Hellickson 141.7 618 15.2% 6.1% .287 4.96 4.94 112 109 Ryan Meisinger 67.7 294 20.4% 9.2% .294 3.86 3.87 87 85 Tanner Scott 66.0 314 24.2% 20.1% .298 4.50 4.49 102 99 Wade Miley 150.7 678 19.0% 9.4% .305 5.02 4.68 113 103 Ubaldo Jimenez 131.0 586 20.3% 9.9% .301 5.02 4.67 113 103 Donnie Hart 59.3 256 18.0% 7.0% .297 3.94 3.93 89 87 Mike Wright 115.7 508 17.1% 7.1% .296 4.98 4.90 113 108 Richard Bleier 66.7 287 11.1% 4.2% .290 4.18 4.39 95 97 Stefan Crichton 68.0 300 16.7% 7.7% .302 4.50 4.41 102 97 Jason Gurka 52.3 226 21.2% 7.1% .301 4.30 4.04 97 89 Miguel Castro 85.3 378 13.8% 8.5% .288 4.54 4.47 102 99 Perci Garner 48.3 222 19.8% 14.4% .302 4.28 4.32 97 95 Matt Wotherspoon 73.0 325 21.8% 10.5% .298 4.81 4.69 109 104 Jeff Ferrell 58.7 256 21.1% 7.4% .302 4.45 4.28 101 95 Chris Tillman 130.7 586 16.4% 9.2% .288 5.30 5.19 120 115 Jason Garcia 85.7 398 14.6% 12.6% .297 5.04 5.10 114 113 Gabriel Ynoa 145.3 645 13.2% 5.6% .299 5.26 5.20 119 115 Josh Edgin 39.0 177 18.1% 11.9% .299 4.38 4.62 99 102 Hunter Harvey 16.7 73 26.0% 12.3% .286 4.32 4.24 98 94 Chris Lee 112.0 518 12.4% 10.4% .300 5.30 5.25 120 116 Tyler Wilson 121.0 540 13.5% 6.5% .299 5.36 5.20 121 115 Jhan Marinez 59.0 267 17.6% 10.5% .302 4.73 4.85 107 107 Andrew Faulkner 46.3 214 17.3% 13.6% .291 4.86 4.84 110 107 Jimmy Yacabonis 68.7 319 16.0% 13.8% .294 4.98 4.82 113 106 Zach Stewart 103.3 471 14.6% 9.1% .301 5.49 5.38 124 119 Bobby Bundy 29.0 133 15.8% 11.3% .297 5.28 5.26 119 116 Paco Rodriguez 19.3 90 17.8% 13.3% .293 5.59 5.38 126 119 Joely Rodriguez 65.7 301 14.6% 10.6% .300 5.07 4.95 115 110 Alec Asher 111.0 492 15.4% 6.1% .296 5.68 5.57 128 123 Lucas Long 114.3 512 15.8% 6.8% .299 5.67 5.66 128 125 John Means 131.0 589 14.8% 7.0% .300 5.70 5.63 129 124 Keegan Akin 86.3 403 18.6% 12.9% .298 5.84 5.81 132 128 Lucas Luetge 42.7 196 18.9% 11.2% .294 5.70 5.78 129 128 Asher Wojciechowski 89.3 404 18.6% 8.2% .306 5.84 5.63 132 124 Jayson Aquino 119.7 543 14.4% 8.1% .298 5.72 5.61 129 124 Brandon Barker 118.0 538 15.6% 9.1% .298 5.80 5.64 131 125 Jefri Hernandez 58.3 271 14.8% 11.1% .299 5.71 5.71 129 126 David Hess 131.0 598 14.4% 8.7% .296 5.91 5.85 134 129 Tim Berry 49.3 239 17.6% 16.3% .299 6.02 6.06 136 134 Yefry Ramirez 106.3 493 17.6% 11.4% .295 6.09 6.18 138 137 Jesus Liranzo 56.7 272 22.1% 16.2% .293 6.67 6.79 151 150 Christian Binford 136.3 622 13.8% 7.6% .302 6.07 5.83 137 129 Jordan Kipper 119.0 552 9.8% 8.0% .300 6.20 6.16 140 136 Konner Wade 104.0 481 12.3% 7.1% .302 6.92 6.68 156 148 Luis Lugo 114.0 549 12.9% 11.5% .298 7.42 7.40 168 164 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Kevin Gausman 178.0 8.60 2.83 1.31 101 2.6 Sidney Ponson Dylan Bundy 159.3 8.42 2.71 1.30 104 2.5 Omar Olivares Mychal Givens 73.7 10.75 3.79 0.86 129 1.6 Frank Williams Brad Brach 66.7 10.26 3.51 0.81 132 1.5 Turk Wendell Zach Britton 53.0 8.66 3.40 0.34 148 1.4 Steve Kline Darren O’Day 52.0 11.60 3.12 1.04 137 1.2 Troy Percival Jeremy Hellickson 141.7 5.97 2.41 1.52 86 0.9 Ismael Valdez Ryan Meisinger 67.7 7.98 3.59 0.80 111 0.9 Turk Farrell Tanner Scott 66.0 10.36 8.59 0.41 95 0.7 Nolan Ryan Wade Miley 150.7 7.71 3.82 1.31 84 0.7 Shawn Estes Ubaldo Jimenez 131.0 8.18 3.98 1.31 85 0.7 Ken Hill Donnie Hart 59.3 6.98 2.73 0.91 108 0.7 Leo Kiely Mike Wright 115.7 6.77 2.80 1.48 86 0.6 Travis Smith Richard Bleier 66.7 4.32 1.62 1.08 102 0.5 Steve Hamilton Stefan Crichton 68.0 6.62 3.04 1.06 95 0.4 Jack Cassel Jason Gurka 52.3 8.25 2.75 1.20 99 0.4 Jason Kershner Miguel Castro 85.3 5.48 3.38 0.95 94 0.4 Elias Sosa Perci Garner 48.3 8.19 5.96 0.56 98 0.3 Ted Abernathy Matt Wotherspoon 73.0 8.75 4.19 1.36 89 0.3 Jared Hoerman Jeff Ferrell 58.7 8.28 2.91 1.38 96 0.3 Gary Majewski Chris Tillman 130.7 6.61 3.72 1.52 81 0.3 Dick Fowler Jason Garcia 85.7 6.09 5.25 0.95 85 0.3 Joe Hudson Gabriel Ynoa 145.3 5.26 2.23 1.61 80 0.2 Nick Blackburn Josh Edgin 39.0 7.38 4.85 0.92 96 0.2 Bill Kennedy Hunter Harvey 16.7 10.26 4.86 1.08 99 0.2 Floyd Youmans Chris Lee 112.0 5.14 4.34 1.13 81 0.2 Pete Cushing Tyler Wilson 121.0 5.43 2.60 1.56 80 0.2 Arnie Portocarrero Jhan Marinez 59.0 7.17 4.27 1.22 89 0.1 Bill Zuber Andrew Faulkner 46.3 7.19 5.63 0.97 88 0.0 Mike Cosgrove Jimmy Yacabonis 68.7 6.68 5.77 0.79 86 -0.1 Hal Reniff Zach Stewart 103.3 6.01 3.75 1.48 77 -0.1 Dick Fowler Bobby Bundy 29.0 6.52 4.66 1.24 81 -0.1 Ed Sprague Paco Rodriguez 19.3 7.45 5.59 1.40 75 -0.2 Dean Brueggemann Joely Rodriguez 65.7 6.03 4.39 1.10 83 -0.2 Philip Barzilla Alec Asher 111.0 6.16 2.43 1.95 75 -0.3 Doug Vanderweele Lucas Long 114.3 6.38 2.76 1.97 75 -0.3 Jason Jones John Means 131.0 5.98 2.82 1.85 75 -0.3 Austin Shappi Keegan Akin 86.3 7.82 5.42 1.67 72 -0.4 Mike King Lucas Luetge 42.7 7.80 4.64 1.90 75 -0.4 Eddie Oropesa Asher Wojciechowski 89.3 7.56 3.32 2.01 73 -0.4 Jason Roach Jayson Aquino 119.7 5.87 3.31 1.73 74 -0.4 Jason Dickson Brandon Barker 118.0 6.41 3.74 1.75 73 -0.6 Andy Cook Jefri Hernandez 58.3 6.17 4.63 1.54 74 -0.6 Sean Green David Hess 131.0 5.91 3.57 1.85 72 -0.6 Andy Cook Tim Berry 49.3 7.66 7.11 1.46 71 -0.7 Dean Brueggemann Yefry Ramirez 106.3 7.36 4.74 2.03 70 -0.7 Wray Bergendahl Jesus Liranzo 56.7 9.53 6.99 2.22 64 -0.9 Greg Ferlenda Christian Binford 136.3 5.68 3.10 1.91 70 -0.9 Pat Ahearne Jordan Kipper 119.0 4.08 3.33 1.82 69 -1.0 Pat Ahearne Konner Wade 104.0 5.11 2.94 2.42 61 -1.9 Justin Pope Luis Lugo 114.0 5.61 4.97 2.53 58 -2.6 Matt White *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.