2017 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / San Diego / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
A cursory examination of the club’s field players reveals a theme: almost all of them receive both a better-than-averge (a) strikeout and (b) fielding-runs projection. Nor should this be very surprising: Giants batters produced the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors last year and the second-most defensive runs. Buster Posey (512 PA, 5.1 zWAR) is well acquitted by both measures. Brandon Crawford (575, 4.3) receives something closer to a league-average strikeout-rate projection; on the defensive side, however, the combination of his fielding mark (+9) and hypothetical positional adjustment (something like +7, probably) produce about 1.5 wins, rendering him league-average player almost without any consideration of his offensive skills.

Overall, the position-player side of things appears well suited to avoiding the awful. If an area of weakness remains, it’s in left field, where Jarrett Parker (449, 1.4) and Mac Williamson (389, 0.6) are expected to form a platoon. Even that combination, though, appears capable of providing wins at a league-average rate.

Pitchers
The average rotation produced roughly 12 wins in 2016. The Giants are in position nearly to reach that mark by means of just their top-two starters, Madison Bumgarner (211.2 IP, 5.5 zWAR) and Johnny Cueto (207.2, 4.7). Whatever the superficial differences between the pitchers, Bumgarner’s and Cueto’s forecasts share a couple of important traits. Both feature an innings mark above 200, a rarity among the pitchers for whom these ZiPS projections have been published so far. Both are also projected to outperform their fielding-independent numbers, each receiving an ERA forecast about 0.3 runs below his FIP.

At the top of the bullpen depth chart appears another pitcher who’s exhibited a real ability to outperform his fielding-independent numbers, the newly acquired Mark Melancon (65.0, 1.4). Dan Szymborski’s computer calls for an ERA over half a run lower than his FIP. Will Smith (56.0, 0.6) and Hunter Strickland (60.0, 0.7) both receive ERA projections 20%-plus lower than league average.

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth-chart image below, outfielder Gorkys Hernandez (452 PA, 1.2 zWAR) is nevertheless a candidate to receive a fair amount of playing time. ZiPS characterizes him as well suited for the role he’ll play: a strong bench option with at least average defense in center. Among the club’s rookie-eligible types, infielders Christian Arroyo (523, 0.8), Miguel Gomez (442, 0.8), and C.J. Hinojosa (528, 0.8) earn the top projections.

As for pitchers, Ty Blach (151.2 IP, 0.9 zWAR), who made his major-league debut last season and appeared fourth on Eric Longenhagen’s Giants list, receives the top overall WAR projection among the rookie-eligible sort. Clayton Blackburn (133.1, 0.8), who didn’t make his debut and also didn’t appear (except as a prospect of note) on Longenhagen’s list, earns the second-best one.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.