We Still Haven’t Seen the Best of Noah Syndergaard

If you’ll allow me to make whatever the opposite of a hot take is, I’ll go ahead and assert that Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the majors. This is almost a law of the universe, at this point — a law I don’t intend to contradict here. As for who’s next on the list, though, there’s more room for reasonable debate. One might ask, “Who’s the second-best pitcher in major-league baseball?”

In fact, I did ask it. According to the highly unscientific poll I took of my Twitter followers, Max Scherzer is an extraordinarily popular answer – and for good reason! Over the past four seasons he’s posted a 2.95 ERA, 2.90 FIP, averaged 263 strikeouts a year, and won two Cy Young Awards. You could also make cases for guys like Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and the always underappreciated Johnny Cueto. For any of those pitchers to be the second-best pitcher in baseball, though, they’d have to surpass the guy who generates exceptional results while commanding what I might argue is the most jaw-dropping starting pitcher repertoire we’ve ever seen: Noah Syndergaard.

There’s a video-game performance quality to what Syndergaard does on a baseball field that I’m not sure we’ve seen since Barry Bonds retired. We’ve had elite players, sure – Kershaw and Mike Trout are pretty dang good, after all – but there’s a real “this shouldn’t be humanly possible” quality to Syndergaard’s pitching.

According to the PITCHf/x leaderboards, he threw the hardest two-seamer in baseball last season, with an average velocity of 98.5 mph. Note, that’s not just the highest velocity for a starting pitcher, but for any pitcher, starter or reliever. Zach Britton’s otherworldly sinker came in at an average of 97.4 mph – more than one full tick below the guy who averaged 97 pitches an outing! Syndergaard also threw the game’s hardest slider (91.6 mph) and changeup (90.4 mph). His four-seam fastball (99.0 mph) was fourth to three fire-balling relievers: Aroldis Chapman (101.2), Mauricio Cabrera (101.2), and Brian Ellington (99.1). Finally, Syndergaard rounds out his repertoire with a true offspeed pitch – an 83.1 mph curveball that ranks “just” 17th in velocity. As August Fagerstrom noted in April, Syndergaard serves as an answer to years of questions about what it would be like to have Chapman in the rotation – only there are no guarantees Chapman would have been this good.

The thing about Syndergaard, of course, is that he doesn’t just have “stuff”; he also uses it effectively. This past season, he posted a 2.60 ERA and a resulting 65 ERA-, which was third best among qualified starters to Kyle Hendricks (51) and Jon Lester (59). Syndergaard’s 2.29 FIP and 56 FIP- were second to none. He struck out batters at the third-highest rate (29.3 K%) while also maintaining a low 5.8% walk rate. Compare him to Cy Young Award winner Scherzer and you’ll find Syndergaard had an identical 5.07 K/BB ratio while dramatically outperforming Washington’s ace in ground-ball rate (51.2% to 33.0%), home-run rate (0.54 HR/9 to 1.22 HR/9), ERA (2.60 to 2.96), and FIP (2.29 to 3.24).

So, why did Scherzer end up winning the Cy Young Award while Syndergaard didn’t get a single first-place vote and ended up coming in eighth in voting? For one thing, Scherzer pitched 44.2 more innings. He’s an established ace in his 30s whereas Syndergaard pitched most of the season at age 23. So Scherzer might have benefited from a “cumulative” effect. There was one other big difference in their results this season, though: batting average on balls in play, or BABIP.

Scherzer has a career .294 BABIP, but last year he set a career low with a .255 mark. Syndergaard, on the other hand, conceded a .334 BABIP this season, which was fourth-highest mark in the majors. In what was otherwise a brilliant season for Syndergaard, BABIP stands out as one of the few things not to go his way this year. Was it a fluke? Or are there reasons to believe it could suppress his production going forward?

If you’re like me, the first thing you might wonder about an inflated BABIP for a pitcher like Syndergaard is whether or not velocity is a factor. It’s a logical enough theory that heat is great when you throw it past a hitter, but can lead to hard contact that’s difficult for fielders to corral. However, the numbers don’t provide evidence that this occurred. Per Baseball Savant, the average exit velocity against Syndergaard this year was 87.9 mph, which was 13th lowest of the 83 pitchers who recorded 400-plus batted-ball events this past season.

There is a characteristic of the 2016 Mets that could potentially be a key factor in Syndergaard’s BABIP woes, though: team defense. This past season, the Mets employed a curious strategy, opting to stick corner outfielders like Yoenis Cespedes and the mid-30s version of Curtis Granderson in center field. Defensive specialist Juan Lagares did make 29 starts in center for the Mets, but just two of them came on days Syndergaard toed the rubber.

It’s notable, then, that Syndergaard’s BABIP allowed on fly balls was .197 — which may not sound like much until you note that the MLB average was .127. As it turns out, Syndergaard was tied with Baltimore’s Ubaldo Jimenez for the highest BABIP on fly balls this season. The distinction is even more noticeable on fly balls hit specifically to center field, with a .262 BABIP against Syndergaard as opposed to a .143 MLB average.

So might the Mets’ subpar outfield defense have cost Syndergaard this season? The way the math works out, a league average BABIP on fly balls would have erased about eight hits this year. Considering that the majority of outfield hits are of the extra-base variety, that’s not nothing. Take eight hits off Syndergaard’s total and his overall BABIP would drop 19 points to a significantly less gaudy .314 mark.

No matter what defense is lined up behind Syndergaard, there’s no denying the fact that he has risen to the level of the very best pitchers in the game. I’m not quite ready to slot him in above Kershaw, although Jeff Sullivan did consider the merits of that argument earlier this year, but I also can’t say it would come as a huge shock if he does one day secure his status as the sport’s best pitcher. For now, though, if nothing else, he has a strong case for second best. Although the Mets haven’t made attempts to help him out with any defensive upgrades this offseason, it still does stand to reason that Syndergaard’s stat line could reach even higher heights should his BABIP normalize in 2017.