Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/23/16

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll let you know now this will be my last chat for a little while since right after Christmas I’m going on vacation

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be back on January 13, which happens to be a Friday, which means I’ll be chatting, which means that time I’ll be asking *you* guys what’s been going on in baseball!

9:04
Bork: Merry Christmas, friend!

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:04
Fat Kenny G: Hey Jeff, tell me how you really feel about Mike Trout?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: I wish that I loved him even more

9:05
Colt Holt: Billy Hamilton extension, what could it look like? Obviously risky with so much tied to his speed, but isn’t that exactly why he could be willing to take a team friendly long term deal to guarantee the one life changing payday?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton is maybe or probably the best defensive outfielder in the world. That’s the biggest thing that makes him valuable, but it’s also not something that gets rewarded through arbitration

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: So perhaps we can be guided by the Inciarte extension, announced today. Inciarte is a Super-Two player and he got $30.525 million over five years, four of those being arb years

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton is currently projected for an arb salary next year of $2.3 million. That’s Year 1. Maybe you offer him five years and $30 – 35 million and see what he says

9:09
The Decadent Moose: Jaromir Jagr became the NHL’s second all-time scorer because the puck hit his ass, counted as an assist. Which MLB ass can move a player to such great heights?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: One day perhaps Brandon Guyer will get hit in the ass and he’ll move into No. 1 on the all-time HBP leaderboard

9:10
Fat Kenny G: Hear me out on this, I watch the British broadcasts for the NFL and they rarely show commercials. Instead they show highlight clips or historical games with player commentary. With the way we watch TV now days, would you be okay with small ads on jerseys and maybe a permanent scrolling wheel of ads on the bottom of the screen if it meant that in between innings they show highlights or historical game footage? It’ll be a great way to expand the interest in the game.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I kind of like this idea. Not sure the economics of it would actually work out for the companies advertising, but what a fun and convenient way to introduce viewers to baseball history

9:11
Matt: Will the Pirates get Quintana?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, unless the White Sox are really big Glasnow fans

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t see the Pirates being willing to include Meadows. Glasnow is very interesting but also very wild and unreliable for now. Similarities there to Giolito! So if Chicago is big on their ability to get Glasnow straightened out, I think there could be an arrangement, but I wouldn’t hold my breath

9:13
Baron von Waffles: Know of any good places off the beaten track to hike in AZ?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know Arizona very well, I’m afraid, but I’ve always wanted to go trekking here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Peaks

9:14
Jack: What do you make of Oakland’s pursuit of Encarnacion? Do you think they make a play for Bautista?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I imagine they’ll be in there on Bautista, too. They’re just trying to jump a slow-developing market, and they have the playing time and money available. Reminds me of a few years ago when they went hard after Chase Headley. That was a surprise then, and they missed out, but sometimes they try to make this sort of splash

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: The A’s are really big on the young pitching they have. Add an anchor to the lineup and it’s not impossible to see them hanging around for a while

9:15
Electric: You taking Matt Holliday at 1/13 or EE at 3/65?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: That depends on the rest of my roster but I’d lean toward the former

9:16
Zach: You’ve said you would be worried about Quintana in Coors; earlier this week, I asked Dave about Quintana as a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, and he responded that he’s not actually a fly ball pitcher. Is that actually true, and then why is Coors a problem?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not so much fly balls that get me as regular balls in play. Quintana is a very good pitcher, but he runs mostly average strikeout rates. Coors Field has so much surface area that thinking about that combination makes me queasy

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: It’s possible Quintana wouldn’t be any worse off than anyone else. It just seems like a risk, given what the package would have to be

9:19
John: inciarte gets 2MM/4/5/7 over his 4 arb years. Do you think thats similar to what you would’ve gotten in arb? Or does defense get paid more now

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Inciarte doesn’t have a skillset that arbitration loves. And that works to his great detriment, because he’s a really good player, and if he were offense-first instead he would’ve made so much more than this

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Average hitter, plus runner, plus-plus defender. Inciarte has become another new Adam Eaton

9:22
Marcus: Does Miguel Gomez have a shot at making the Giants roster out of spring training? If so what sort of numbers should we expect from him?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Miguel Gomez?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: The guy who hasn’t even batted 200 times above A-ball?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so

9:23
Crusty Juggler: Please predict where Trumbo, Napoli, and Bautista end up.

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll put Trumbo back on the Orioles

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll send Napoli to the Rangers, and I’ll put Bautista back on the Blue Jays

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Rockies would have a shot at Napoli but I think they’d have to make a trade first

9:26
Jeff: With the shift in balance of the AL East, is it crazy to think the Jays may trade Donaldson come the summer if they are out? Or should they try and slow the PR tire fire and lock him up?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure locking him up is a great idea given his age, but the market would be complicated, because the Orioles are also in a fragile spot and they could start shopping Manny Machado. Then what?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Jays will be out of it in July, first of all. If they are, what’s happened? Are the young players under-producing, or is it the veterans? If they still look decent for 2018 I say you keep him

9:27
Matt: Thoughts on the Nova signing?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Wrote it up yesterday but I think Pittsburgh did well

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Nova is not Pirates-numbers good now, but I do think he’s a 2-3 WAR starting pitcher

9:28
Justin: What are the chances the Pirates trade for Quintana? What would it take?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: 1/10. Package centered by Glasnow and Bell?

9:30
Jeb: What are the chances the Bucs trade Cutch? Seems likely, especially if they get Jose….

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I actually think it’s unlikely right now — I think the Nationals were their best shot, and that didn’t materialize, because the Pirates kept asking too much. So now I think they move forward with McCutchen, and then they revisit in July if they’re bad, or next winter if they’re not

9:31
Geoff: Now that Edwin’s finally signed, what happens with Bautista? The Jays apparently haven’t made him an offer since he turned down the QO and Heyman says he thinks they’re more interested in getting the pick for him than getting him back. The Astros signed Beltran and Reddick, the Yankees signed Holliday, the Indians signed Encarnacion, and apparently the Red Sox told him they don’t have room while the Orioles and Rangers basically told him to get lost. I assume he’s going to have to sign with an AL team, and the Rays supposedly have some interest while the A’s were apparently one of the finalists for Encarnacion. Neither would have to give up their first pick, which seems to be a big obstacle for Bautista in finding a new home. How strong of a possibility do you think there is that he actually ends up with a low-budget team like Tampa or Oakland? There just don’t seem to be many other fits.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think the A’s and Rays have very legitimate opportunities here. However, I doubt Bautista would feel real inclined to join either one. So before he were to make a commitment, I bet he’d call the Jays, and I’d say the odds are that they manage to work something out before it’s all over

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: He’s beloved there, and the team can win, and the fan support is staggering. I just really have a hard time seeing Bautista in Tampa or Oakland

9:32
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Your thoughts on Ender being locked up by Atlanta?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Extremely team-friendly. It’s not so much Ender’s fault; the system isn’t set up to reward what he does

9:33
Dan: Should i duck out of work early?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: The answer is usually yes

9:33
Jose Quintana: I wanna be a Pirate and I should be

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Do you wanna be an Astro? That one feels more likely

9:34
Jeb: Where are you going on vacation?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Week in the Atacama, week in Chilean Patagonia

9:35
Matt: Better extension, Ender or Odubel?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Herrera’s contract has that extra club option, but that’s so far away, and I trust Inciarte more for the moment. So I’ll say the Ender contract is better for the team

9:35
mike: Ender’s game makes that deal sweet for the Braves, right?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: He is so stupid-valuable. Bad Arizona, bad

9:36
Eddie: How rattled should i be as a jays fan?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if “rattled” is the right word. But it’s never fun or easy to adjust to a changing team core

9:37
John: Why do you think we don’t see many players sign deals to cover all arb years? something like 3/15 for a good player then hit free agency at the normal time. not enough reward for teams?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, often not enough reason for teams to do that

9:38
Electric: Who has more trade value: Luis Severino or James Kaprielian?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Severino by a healthy amount

9:39
Ronnie: League average wRC+ for 1B was 108 in 2016. Over/under that mark for Eric Thames in 2017?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: I have him mentally slotted around 110-115. Ignore what it says right now on the depth charts; Steamer just doesn’t have a projection for him yet

9:40
Roboto: What do you think Hammel gets now that Nova signed for far below than expected?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: There’s some amount of concern in there about his elbow.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I bet he gets something like Volquez, but maybe with a lower base, and innings-based incentives

9:42
Whobaby: Dansby or Trea Turner over the next 5 years?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I’d take Turner by a hair but they’re both so terrific

9:42
Merv Throneberry: Any breakout starter possibilities possible for Atlanta this year?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Folty

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Already took a big step forward in 2016

9:43
Moltar: Whyyyyyyyyyy am I at work today? My boss is “working from home” and her boss is out completely. There’s maybe a third of the office here. Needless to say I will be reading this chat very closely.

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Now imagine my office. I’m the only one present!

9:43
_David_: Do you think Felix’s command is masking a fastball that’s actually even slower?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t understand. His fastball is slower than how it’s recorded?

9:44
Portland’s Only Padres Fan: Why Padres?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Was it because of the Beavers?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I’m very sorry

9:44
Oren: How upset should Jays fans be about how the Edwin situation – and offseason in general – have played out?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: The right ideas and the popular ideas are not always in alignment. There’s nothing wrong, in general, with trying to avoid big multi-year commitments to aging players. Teams are frequently left on the hook for those. But when those players leave before they’ve actually turned bad, it can be a rough look. Right now the Toronto lineup feels naked

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It can all be discussed much more thoroughly in spring, by which point it’ll be clear how the entire offseason has played out

9:47
Drew: Pittsburgh has been looking to move Cutch and acquire Quintana. What team makes the most sense to swing a three way trade with the Pirates and White Sox to get both done in one go?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: There’s not a team out there that would be willing to pay what the Pirates have wanted for McCutchen

9:49
Hank: Breakout for Addison Russell this year? Last season he hit .238 with 21HR and 95RBI. Would a .270/25/110 season be too much to ask if he moves up in the order? That would be an incredible stat line for a SS.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like there’s too little contact and too many pop-ups to manage a .270 BA

9:50
_David_: Do you think at any point NPB starts signing top prospects out from under the draft?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t. They can’t offer that much money, and, how many teenagers or 21-year-olds do you think would be amped to up and move to a completely unfamiliar country?

9:51
mike sixel: First winter in Portland, much colder than expected……will the Dozier/Dodgers deal ever get done? Which side, if you had to guess, was being “unreasonable” right ow?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say it’s more likely than unlikely. If they’re already basically agreed on De Leon, it’s just about identifying the second piece. Neither side is being unreasonable — one just wants more, while the other wants to give less. Objectively the Twins should probably be content with De Leon+ but I understand why they’re being stubborn

9:53
Electric: Are “framing” and “receiving” the same thing?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I use them interchangeably because it gets annoying repeating “pitch-framing” all the time

9:54
Gtrope87: When and for who do the Mets trade Bruce?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: January for not very much

9:54
Toki: Cubs offer Schwarber, Almora, Hendricks, Ian Happ, and Candelario for Trout, who says no?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Angels

9:55
cardsjason: Who do you see getting the bulk of the playing time at 1B and DH for HOU? Between Gattis McCann Beltran and Gurriel someone is losing ABs.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Gattis will lose time

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: And Gurriel will have to earn his continued time

9:55
Portland’s Only Padres Fan: Do any remaining FA make sense for the Padres?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Brett Anderson

9:55
Alec: Reds fan, here. Can we get anything for Brandon Phillips or do you see him on the Reds opening day roster?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: There’s basically zero demand right now for second basemen. He’ll be around

9:56
Jeff: Have Shapiro and Atkins purposely put the Jays in a position where it’ll make even more sense for a tear down come June or July?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: They still might be the second-best team in the East, which means they’d be right there in the WC race

9:58
_David_: Why was Jamie Moyer able to do what he did, and can another experienced, velocity challenged changeup pitch, say, I don’t know, Felix, figure out how to do that?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Moyer consistently sold the hell out of his changeup and he used it to induce softer-than-average contact. Given what his fastball was, his changeup might’ve been one of the best of all time. Felix’s changeup has also rated among the best on the planet, so if he gets his location improved, there’s no reason why he can’t bounce back

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Felix has already been an amazing pitcher with a fastball around 91

10:01
Portland’s Only Padres Fan: Which remaining FA makes most sense for the M’s? Besides Hammel?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I could easily see them going in on Doug Fister for a year

10:01
Steve: Chances Joe Ross is the Nationals 3rd best SP this season?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good

10:02
Hank: Is there still more in Gregory Polanco’s bat? It seemed like he had a few nagging injuries last season, but offensively, he appeared to really tap into the power.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: There should be an opportunity for him to cut down on his strikeouts. He runs better-than-average contact rates. His swing is quick. He had a 128 wRC+ in the first half, and that’s within his reach

10:04
Aaron: This is unlikely to happen, but doesn’t a Javier Baez for Dodgers young pitching trade make a lot of sense? It’s weird to me that no one is floating this with the Dozier trade a seeming inevitability.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: There would be the framework of something there, but I wonder if the teams might be hesitant because they profile basically as pennant rivals. Psychologically it might be easier to find common ground with the Twins or Tigers

10:05
Barwin Darney: Is acquiring Bruce or Granderson + re-signing Bautista a reasonable course for the Blue Jays to take to finish their lineup off?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how much they’re willing to spend but that’s not unreasonable

10:05
Jake: Do you see Abreu next year as closer to his first half 98 wRC+ or his second half 142?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Second half

10:08
Kristen: Happy holidays! How huge of a deal will Darvish get after 2017? Could he top David Price’s 7-years + $217-million ?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Darvish will get quite that high, because of his elbow surgery. Price has never broken down like that. I think you’re guided by the extension Strasburg signed with the Nationals. That was a huge contract for someone post-TJ, although Strasburg signed at a younger age than Darvish will

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: And, of course, those long-term contracts with the Nationals are always super complicated in structure. But it’s a starting point. Darvish won’t go hungry

10:11
_David_: The more we see what elite relievers get paid and paid for, does it become clear that either Dipoto knew something about Carson Smith, or there’s a serious potential issue with his ability to gage the market?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Smith had one elite year, throwing 45% sliders. The market will forever be skeptical of the long-term value of a guy like that

10:13
Tanner: When I saw the news about the Inciarte extension, it struck me as relatively cheap, and it got me thinking about similar cheap extensions, eg Rizzo and Altuve. With cheap pre-arb extensions like those, are they more a reflection of a bad agent, an honest assessment of the risk involved with any player, or some combination of the two?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: When Rizzo signed, he wasn’t great yet. When Altuve signed, he wasn’t great yet. I understand why there was certain urgency to accept money as it became available. But in these cases perhaps the representatives didn’t adequately convey to the clients how much money they would already stand to make, even without an agreement

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to judge in hindsight; we’re biased now by the knowledge that Rizzo and Altuve are awesome. But young players could probably use a better understanding of how much they can earn in arbitration. It’s more nerve-wracking to take it year to year, but it’s the best way to maximize income

10:15
Sandy Alderson: Should I keep putting corner outfielders in Center for their offensive production and rely on my pitcher’s high K-rates, or dump Bruce, free up some dough and go trade for McCutchen?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Then you’d still be putting a corner outfielder in center

10:16
Slamboni: Rangers miss (or don’t try?) on Edwin, what’s next for them?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure they’ve had conversations with Napoli’s people

10:17
Chuncey Wiggins: It’s Christmas. You run downstairs to take your stocking down from the fireplace. Which baseball player are you hoping is wearing the stocking?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Which baseball player do I hope is sitting patiently above my fireplace?

10:17
Fat Kenny G: If Clay Bucholz has a good first half, say 3.25 ERA, same FIP, 9k/9, 1.3 WHIP, what kind of package would the Phils get in a trade?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: B-level prospect. He’d be useful to some contender, but he can’t erase his reputation in three or four months

10:18
RMR: In your opinion is Quintana worth a headliner the caliber of Torres or Meadows (ignoring for a second what actually makes sense for the Yanks and Bucs)?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:19
tommy lasagna, sr: shouldn’t the dodgers just wait til the trade deadline and give up less for forsythe, instead of giving up de leon now for dozier?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Not that easy. What if the Rays are in contention?

10:20
Fat Kenny G: In a Reddit thread there was a post about the smartest play you’ve ever seen. What’s yours?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: This probably isn’t *really* No. 1 but this is what just came to mind http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v17585257

10:23
CoolWinnebago: Is it just me, or do early-career Edwin Encarnacion and present-day Maikel Franco not only have physical similarities, but also very similar statistical profiles?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Very similar statlines through age 23

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: But then, Encarnacion didn’t become great until he was 29

10:23
mike sixel: Why trade Quintana if he has 5 years of control left, or am I recalling that wrong? Wouldn’t you have to get a SP and a hitter, both with near certainty, to trade him? He’s not some short termer, unless you have doubts about his ability to sustain success…

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: He comes with four extremely affordable years. However, with any pitcher, you can only count on short-term value. A long-term pitcher isn’t really a long-term pitcher, because of the injury risk, and so the crucial years are the earliest ones. Those years now mean absolutely nothing to the White Sox, because they are bad

10:25
Lucas: Do you feel that the Rockies will truly trade an OF? The Desmond signing still makes no sense at this point.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I very genuinely do not believe I can tell you what the Rockies are doing

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re trying to just maximize their options. An outfielder trade is very possible, but not certain, by any means

10:25
Lightning Round!: Who is the Marlins closer this year? Think they have lost confidence in Ramos and will go with Ziegler or someone else?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Ramos is first in line

10:25
RMR: Odds the Sox end up moving other non-Quintana pieces before the Opening Day (i.e. Frazier, Robertson, Jones, etc)? Abreu and Melky seem likely to stay given the slow slugger market.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll make another move or two

10:26
Mark B.: Re: Inciarte extension – does it make more sense for defense first players to sign early career extensions than bat first players, given their skill set isn’t rewarded in arbitration? Or do you think front offices will start to reward defensive excellence on the free agent market (more so than they currently do) in the near future, thus providing the player with incentive to hit free agency as early as possible?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I think defense-first players should be willing to sign contracts through their arb years, but they shouldn’t be so willing to give up FA years for cheap

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure Inciarte could’ve signed a four-year extension, instead of a five-year deal with an option. I would’ve preferred he do that

10:27
Alec: I’m worried about the Rangers offense. Do you see Mazara taking a step forward this year or will his struggles against left handers contnue?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t love Mazara — I think he’s an average bat. Young enough to take a leap ahead, but he’s got work to do

10:29
Anthony: Enjoy the vacation Jeff. Not trying to get too personal, but is there anything you’re looking forward to besides a break from work?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Sharing some of the world’s most spectacular places with my favorite person

10:30
Pip: The relief market is slowly drying up and the Nationals still could use some help there. Do you think they will try to be more aggressive with Holland, or are they just going to keep waiting and pickup whoever is left? The Robertson trade is still an option but would could the White Sox reasonably want in return? Someone at the back end of the nats top 10?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: It’s easy to see the Nats ending up with either of those guys, but they shouldn’t stress too much about it — they’re good enough to go into the year as is and then make another move in July

10:31
Zach: Is there any reason having too many lefties at the top of a rotation (I’m thinking Red Sox and Dodgers) would be a problem? I can’t think of one but I’m curious

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: In theory, it could make your rotation somewhat exploitable by a team with flexibility. But I wouldn’t worry about it. Great pitchers are great pitchers

10:31
Electric: Oakland in the trade market at all for OFers? Or, are they focused on deep value in the FA market?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Both. They’ve been in on Dyson but the Royals won’t give him up cheaply

10:32
Nick: Hi Jeff. As an Indians fan, I’m thrilled about the EE signing, of course. Do you expect him to DH or play 1B most of the time? I don’t know if EE and Santana are equally inept at defense, or even really how often EE played first base in Toronto.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I basically just see about a 50/50 mix. Neither one is great defensively but I doubt they want to stick some player at DH permanently

10:33
Disco Dan McGraw : Do you think certain organization are better at types of players? Arizona seems to develop good OF: pollock, eaton, inciarte and New York seems to develop some top notch relievers: melancon, Robertson, betances etc

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Probably something to this, although it would be very difficult to study

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles are perplexingly good at relievers and awful at starters!

10:34
LudeBurger: Please predict where I will end up in life.

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: the ground

10:34
Robin: Do you think Edgar makes the HOF before he falls off the ballot? Initial reporting shows he’s picked up a few votes this year

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the momentum is there. With so many voters flipping now, that’ll make it easier for more voters to flip next year and, if necessary, the year after that. We’re seeing the big push now for Raines. It bodes extremely well

10:35
Electric: Portland capable of supporting an MLB club?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Probably

10:36
Mike T.: If Morales is 70% of EE next year will anyone remember being sad he didn’t go back to the Jays?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: 70% of EE isn’t very good

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: But if Morales hits, yeah, people will somewhat forget about the past and be content with a competitive present

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: At the end of the day, people want their team to win games. They don’t care so much which players are helping the team do that

10:37
HappyFunBall: The Rockies could sign Napoli and announce that he’s catching again. It would be as believable as Desmond at 1B.

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: <3

10:38
Frank: Are Chris Archers gains from the second half sustainable?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: He is very good. He will remain a very good pitcher

10:38
Todd: Over/under 400 AB’s for Yulieski Gourriel this year? Are the Astros going to regret that contract?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get more. I’d say at least 450

10:39
Ben: What are you doing for vacation, Jeff?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Hiking, getting altitude headaches, and eating dehydrated chicken and dumplings out of a bag

10:39
Charlie: Why do the Yankees want McCutchen? Seeing rumors of a 3 way CWS/NYY/PIT deal, don’t understand the Yankees motivation to get 2 years of Cutch.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees have a deep farm system and a roster that could be competitive in the short-term

10:41
LudeBurger: I know you don’t normally take fantasy questions, but I swear I will relate it to real life. I’m coming off winning my championship and I have started a fire sale. Am I actually Jeffrey Loria?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: The first Marlins fire sale was conducted by Dave Dombrowski, under the ownership of Wayne Huizenga!

10:41
TooDamnTall: I was wondering if there is a hitter’s division?…one where the majority of the away games would be favorable to the hitter

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: In the AL East, only Tampa Bay plays in a pitcher-friendly environment

10:45
Sean: Latest word on the Chicago blogging scene is Quintana to the Pirates, McCutcheon to the Yankees and some combination of Glasnow, Mitch Keller, Blake Rutherford, Kevin Newman, Miguel Andujar & Elias Diaz (not all) to the White Sox. Could that work?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: If I’m reading this correctly, the Pirates are paying very heavily, and the Yankees are not paying heavily enough

10:45
mustache dammit: how many years before san Diego’s OF is talked about as one of the best, and is it even worth watching this year? Everyone is loving Margot, i’m more intrigued with Hunter Renfroe, and then they get lucky with one of the other young guys working out Dickerson/jankowski/ect

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: One of the best?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’ll profile any time soon as being one of the best

10:47
Damian: What do we think Puig’s 2017 looks like?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Marcell Ozuna’s 2016

10:48
Electric: The end result notwithstanding, from a pure value-in/value-out standpoint, which trade was the more lopsided deal: 1.5 years of arb Samardzija, half season of Jason Hammell for Addison Russell/McKinney/Straily/Stuff, or a half season of Aroldis Chapman for Gleyber/McKinney/Crawford/Warren?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I want to say the Russell one. Russell was one of the game’s very best prospects, and he was big-league ready. He was considerably more valuable then than Torres was at the time of that move

10:49
Big Z: Better career hitter in the end: Schwarber or Sano?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with Sano

10:49
Rocksteady: who are the Indians more likely to trade, Salazar or Corrasco? or has that ship sailed?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: That ship has sailed for now

10:50
Ethan: Would Bautista consider a 1 year deal with the Dodgers to be their LF? The Dodgers don’t have an appealing option there it seems.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers could piece together a platoon. I think there are better fits around

10:51
JT: Does verlander make more sense for the Astros than Quintana? They keep more prospects and they have room for his salary. Also, what are the tigers doing? They looked ready to sell then kinda gave up

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Quintana would be easier — I can’t imagine what it would take for the Tigers to psychologically part with Verlander when the team now isn’t bad.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: When we were in DC Dave and I talked about this and his theory is that the Tigers were trying to bait the Red Sox into making a blockbuster overpay

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: That didn’t pan out, obviously

10:52
Krombopulos Michael: Isn’t the yankees pitching staff kinda terrifying? I mean, yeesh. who could you expect to fill in the back 2 of that rotation while the tubby tall dudes yuck it up in spots 2-3

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: For whatever it’s worth, the Yankees pitching staff is currently eighth in projected WAR

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Now, there are issues with basically all of their starters, but they won’t all break down, and the bullpen is solid

10:53
Guest: If you were to predict would you say Tim Anderson’s 2.4 WAR last season will be his career high?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:54
John: Defensively limited power hitters value has obviously dropped in the FA market. Obviously pujols was more than just a power hitter, but what do you think he would’ve gotten hitting FA in this environment?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: He was going into his age-32 season, and he’d been an everyday player, a contact-hitting slugger with no offensive vulnerability. You’d be looking at something like 6/$200million

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: More likely, I guess, a team would’ve stretched that out to reduce the luxury-tax hit

10:56
Krombopulos Michael: Without declining any further, how long would Nick Markakis have to play to be in the hall?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: 0% chance. I mean, if he was like an average everyday player until he was 50, maybe he’d get in for being a miracle, but even as a more ordinary candidate, he just never came close to a HoF peak

10:57
JT: It’s essentially impossible for a single transaction to destroy a franchise but man that Shelby Miller deal is about as close as you can get.

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Yep

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: And Blair hasn’t even done anything good

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: The Diamondbacks lost like, I don’t know, $200 million in asset value?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Complete and total absurdity

10:58
Lucas: Do you think the D’Backs should trade AJ Pollock if he starts the year with a bang? HIs injury problems would worry me long term.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: I’d maybe market him as a McCutchen alternative. Depending on how the Diamondbacks look in July, perhaps I approach Pollock about an extension. Which would be taking the opposite path

10:59
Ethan : What would you think about a Jankowski and Hand (or Buchter) trade for Conforto?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Mets wouldn’t do it

10:59
Justin: Thoughts on what Michael Saunders will get and if he’s going to get a starting job somewhere? I kind of like him as a 4th OF for the Cardinals, but not sure if that’s cost prohibitive.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: When I think about Michael Saunders my brain keeps putting him in Baltimore

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: For two years

11:00
Ben: What do you expect from Josh Hader this year, and what do you think he ends up as?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: At the winter meetings I had someone note that Hader is basically an under-appreciated Lucas Giolito

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Hader, like Giolito, has a strike zone to find, but you can’t teach his raw stuff. He’s one of the real high-upside arms in the Brewers system and I’m excited for his 2018

11:01
Matt: When does meadows get called up this season?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: No urgency as long as McCutchen is around and all three starters are healthy

11:02
Bill: Is Ian Desmond the most confounding off-season deal to date? What are the Rockies doing?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely the most confusing so far

11:02
Kristen: Best bang-for-the-buck FA signings so far? Liking the Wellington Castillo, Steven Pearce, and Jhoulys Chacin deals.

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I liked Pearce and Joyce

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t really like Castillo

11:02
Dan: Jameson Taillon had a good rookie year. Seems to have a high floor with his very low BB rate. K rate not great but just a 3rd pitch away from a breakout?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s on a very promising path. Already throwing strikes and getting grounders. Barely has to do anything more

11:05
Travis: What’s that Ender extension mean for Mallex Smith?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a fourth outfielder who needs to somehow prove he’s more than a fourth outfielder

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again on…January 13! at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/23/16 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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lesmash
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lesmash

Terrific work as always, Jeff. I loved your piece for THT on catcher framing – you have a tremendous ability to make just about any topic easily understood by the reader. I learn a lot and get entertained by reading your work, so thank you.

Enjoy your well earned holidays.