2018 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
To get a sense of where the White Sox currently reside along the win curve, consider this: nine days ago, the ZiPS projections for the Miami Marlins — a team actively attempting to divest itself of talent — appeared at this site. The players most likely to occupy a starting role for that team received a total of roughly 16 projected wins from Dan Szymborski’s computer. Chicago’s starters, meanwhile, earn just 11 WAR or so between them — this even though, because of the DH slot, the White Sox actually feature an additional field player in their hypothetical Opening Day lineup. It’s possible, in other words, that the White Sox’ positional core is only two-thirds as strong as the Marlins’. That isn’t what one would characterize as an “ideal” prognosis.

First baseman Jose Abreu (667 PA, 2.6 zWAR) unsurprisingly receives the club’s top projection. Since his arrival in 2014, he’s been the club’s best player, rivaled only by the departed Adam Eaton during that same interval.

Notably, it wasn’t Abreu, but rather Avisail Garcia (565, 1.4), who led the club in wins this past season. ZiPS forecasts significant regression for Garcia in 2018, however: indeed, even with the benefit of a projected .339 BABIP, his batting average is expected to drop 50 points. Are you familiar with Yolmer Sanchez? A lot of people in the world aren’t. He finished third on the club in WAR this past season, though. ZiPS calls for him to do that again.

Pitchers
While Chicago hitters were no great shakes in 2017, the club’s pitchers were even less good shakes, finishing 29th in WAR, just ahead of a Reds staff that has set multiple records for futility in recent seasons. No White Sox pitcher managed to reach the two-win threshold this past season. Even worse: none of the club’s top-five pitchers by WAR — Jose Quintana, Anthony Swarzak, Miguel Gonzalez, Tommy Kahnle, and David Robertson, in that order — remain employed by the club.

Were he healthy, Carlos Rodon (132.2 IP, 2.5 zWAR) would enter the season as the staff ace. A procedure to relieve bursitis in his left shoulder, however, will likely postpone his season debut. Lucas Giolito (161.0, 2.3), meanwhile, is the only other pitcher forecast to produce two or more wins. Another part of the Adam Eaton trade with Washington, Reynaldo Lopez (156.1, 1.4), is the only other pitcher both (a) expected to make the Opening Day roster and (b) projected for as much as even one win.

Among relievers, Gregory Infante (57.0 IP, 84 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) and Juan Minaya (61.0, 89, 0.9) both represent promising high-leverage options, while the return of Nate Jones (40.0, 83, 0.7) ought to add some depth to the back end of the bullpen.

Bench/Prospects
As is frequently the case with rebuilding clubs, some of the top projections for the White Sox are actually assessed to players who are unlikely to break camp with the team. Outfielder Eloy Jimenez (454, 1.5 zWAR), for example, is the recipient of the third-best WAR forecast among position players. Young right-handers Michael Kopech (133.2 IP, 1.7 zWAR) and Alec Hansen (146.1, 1.6), meanwhile, earn the third- and fourth-best WAR figures from ZiPS of the organization’s pitchers.

Leury Garcia (371, 0.8) is omitted from the depth-chart image below but figures to play a bench role in the majors. He’s projected here as a center fielder, although that’s merely one of five positions at which he appeared in 2017. Prospect Zack Burdi (49.0 IP, 89 ERA-, 0.7 zWAR) is unlikely to appear until late 2018 after undergoing Tommy John in July. He receives a promising forecast, however.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

***

***

***

***

***

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.