2017 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Chicago NL / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Were one to have followed major-league baseball with some vigor through the 2014 season but then entered a coma at the end of that season but then just exited that coma this morning, that would constitute an unsual series of events. It would also uniquely qualify the nearly awakened to comment on the relative inexperience of the Padres’ starting lineup, because basically none of that lineup’s constituent members had appeared in major-league baseball by the end of 2014.

Catcher Derek Norris (450 PA, 1.7 zWAR), who’s recorded fewer than 600 career games (or less than four full seasons’ worth), is the veteran of this club. Wil Myers (621, 3.4) and Yangervis Solarte (519, 2.5) are the only other two projected starters who’ve recorded more than 1,000 career plate appearances. The starting outfielders, meanwhile, have compiled 552 PAs as a group.

Which, a note about San Diego and its outfields. The reader might remember, in 2015, when the Padres fielded an Opening Day alignment (from left to right field) of Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp, marking one of the worst defensive units in recent memory. The results were not positive. In any case, the current iteration of the Padres outfield represents a great departure from that. Travis Jankowski (404, 1.6) and Manuel Margot (581, 2.6) are projected for +7 and +9 fielding runs in center; Hunter Renfroe (586, 1.5), meanwhile, is forecast to save +6 runs in right.

Pitchers
While San Diego’s field players possess a considerable volume both of youth and promise, the club’s rotation features less of the former and almost none of the latter. Right-hander Tyson Ross (124.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR) has experienced some success when healthy. He recorded only five total innings in 2016, however, before eventually undergoing a procedure for thoracic outlet syndrome that leaves his return questionable for the start of the season. After Ross, there’s little cause for hope.

The bullpen is better by comparison, fronted technically by Brandon Maurer (65.0, -0.1) but in practice — according to ZiPS, at least — by left-hander Brad Hand (81.0, 0.8). For those who remember Hand as a young, soft-tossing starter for the Marlins at the beginning of the decade, this version will be unfamiliar. Working exclusively as a reliever in 2016, Hand recorded an average fastball velocity of 94 mph while striking out just over 30% of the batters he faced.

Bench/Prospects
A number of the young players who might otherwise appear in this space have already been mentioned, on account of they represent the core the major-league club now. With regard to those who haven’t been named, both Christian Bethancourt (348 PA, 1.3 zWAR) and Austin Hedges (368, 2.0) are interesting: neither retain their rookie eligibility, but both seem to possess untapped promise. Except for the latter’s youth, Carlos Asuaje (558, 1.1) and Luis Urias (478, 1.0) are nearly identical players: middle infielders with strong contact skills, if little power. And both offering some use at the major-league level now.

Were one looking for any indication of optimism among the club’s pitching depth, right-hander Dinelson Lamet (135.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) would seem to be the direction in which one should look. Lamet acquitted himself well as a starter across three levels in 2016.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.