2017 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres by Carson Cistulli December 2, 2016 After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Chicago NL / Toronto / Washington. Batters Were one to have followed major-league baseball with some vigor through the 2014 season but then entered a coma at the end of that season but then just exited that coma this morning, that would constitute an unsual series of events. It would also uniquely qualify the nearly awakened to comment on the relative inexperience of the Padres’ starting lineup, because basically none of that lineup’s constituent members had appeared in major-league baseball by the end of 2014. Catcher Derek Norris (450 PA, 1.7 zWAR), who’s recorded fewer than 600 career games (or less than four full seasons’ worth), is the veteran of this club. Wil Myers (621, 3.4) and Yangervis Solarte (519, 2.5) are the only other two projected starters who’ve recorded more than 1,000 career plate appearances. The starting outfielders, meanwhile, have compiled 552 PAs as a group. Which, a note about San Diego and its outfields. The reader might remember, in 2015, when the Padres fielded an Opening Day alignment (from left to right field) of Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp, marking one of the worst defensive units in recent memory. The results were not positive. In any case, the current iteration of the Padres outfield represents a great departure from that. Travis Jankowski (404, 1.6) and Manuel Margot (581, 2.6) are projected for +7 and +9 fielding runs in center; Hunter Renfroe (586, 1.5), meanwhile, is forecast to save +6 runs in right. Pitchers While San Diego’s field players possess a considerable volume both of youth and promise, the club’s rotation features less of the former and almost none of the latter. Right-hander Tyson Ross (124.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR) has experienced some success when healthy. He recorded only five total innings in 2016, however, before eventually undergoing a procedure for thoracic outlet syndrome that leaves his return questionable for the start of the season. After Ross, there’s little cause for hope. The bullpen is better by comparison, fronted technically by Brandon Maurer (65.0, -0.1) but in practice — according to ZiPS, at least — by left-hander Brad Hand (81.0, 0.8). For those who remember Hand as a young, soft-tossing starter for the Marlins at the beginning of the decade, this version will be unfamiliar. Working exclusively as a reliever in 2016, Hand recorded an average fastball velocity of 94 mph while striking out just over 30% of the batters he faced. Bench/Prospects A number of the young players who might otherwise appear in this space have already been mentioned, on account of they represent the core the major-league club now. With regard to those who haven’t been named, both Christian Bethancourt (348 PA, 1.3 zWAR) and Austin Hedges (368, 2.0) are interesting: neither retain their rookie eligibility, but both seem to possess untapped promise. Except for the latter’s youth, Carlos Asuaje (558, 1.1) and Luis Urias (478, 1.0) are nearly identical players: middle infielders with strong contact skills, if little power. And both offering some use at the major-league level now. Were one looking for any indication of optimism among the club’s pitching depth, right-hander Dinelson Lamet (135.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) would seem to be the direction in which one should look. Lamet acquitted himself well as a starter across three levels in 2016. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Wil Myers R 26 1B 621 92 143 28 3 25 86 21 5 Manuel Margot R 22 CF 581 66 139 25 9 7 50 27 11 Yangervis Solarte B 29 3B 519 61 127 27 3 13 65 1 1 Ryan Schimpf L 29 2B 466 62 92 24 3 24 64 1 2 Austin Hedges R 24 C 368 43 83 17 1 12 47 1 2 Derek Norris R 28 C 450 53 91 20 1 13 50 6 2 Travis Jankowski L 26 CF 404 50 88 13 4 2 22 26 9 Hunter Renfroe R 25 RF 586 73 132 28 3 23 80 5 2 Christian Bethancourt R 25 C 348 37 81 17 0 8 40 5 3 Jabari Blash R 27 LF 376 50 71 14 1 18 46 4 3 Cory Spangenberg L 26 2B 262 32 61 10 6 4 31 7 3 Carlos Asuaje L 25 2B 558 60 123 23 6 9 50 7 5 Alex Dickerson L 27 LF 457 60 107 25 4 13 59 4 1 Luis Urias R 20 2B 478 56 106 19 4 5 40 7 15 Adam Rosales R 34 3B 250 31 52 10 2 7 26 3 2 Jose Rondon R 23 SS 496 49 113 20 4 6 42 12 8 Rocky Gale R 29 C 340 32 74 11 1 3 26 1 1 Casey McElroy L 27 3B 402 44 85 16 2 5 36 1 2 Josh VanMeter L 22 3B 401 44 86 17 2 9 37 7 4 Brett Wallace L 30 3B 371 40 76 14 0 12 39 0 0 Jose Pirela R 27 LF 369 42 86 16 4 6 33 5 3 Ty France R 22 1B 471 55 95 20 0 11 47 5 7 Jemile Weeks B 30 2B 227 23 45 8 3 1 13 4 1 Javier Guerra L 21 SS 474 46 86 17 2 14 46 4 7 Oswaldo Arcia L 26 RF 373 40 77 14 2 17 48 1 2 Nick Noonan L 28 SS 383 34 77 17 0 4 28 2 2 Jason Hagerty B 29 1B 231 27 48 11 1 6 25 1 1 Alexi Amarista L 28 2B 328 30 71 9 2 4 29 8 1 Michael Gettys R 21 CF 562 55 105 18 4 12 49 18 14 Franchy Cordero L 22 CF 591 59 120 17 9 10 50 16 12 Taylor Lindsey L 25 1B 448 47 92 19 4 9 40 4 3 Stephen McGee R 26 C 221 19 39 8 0 2 15 1 1 Luis Sardinas B 24 SS 484 48 109 17 3 1 35 12 5 Nick Torres R 24 LF 467 45 100 24 2 8 44 6 4 Hector Sanchez B 27 1B 151 13 33 6 0 5 20 0 0 Jamie Romak R 31 1B 336 35 64 16 1 12 37 2 1 Mike Olt R 28 1B 292 32 50 11 0 11 31 1 1 Josh Naylor L 20 1B 547 58 132 26 2 11 57 11 6 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Wil Myers 621 10.0% 24.5% .197 .311 .260 .335 .457 .348 Manuel Margot 581 5.2% 14.3% .118 .290 .257 .298 .375 .307 Yangervis Solarte 519 7.1% 11.9% .153 .284 .269 .326 .422 .322 Ryan Schimpf 466 10.1% 29.0% .249 .269 .225 .313 .474 .333 Austin Hedges 368 4.1% 21.2% .159 .274 .241 .275 .400 .287 Derek Norris 450 8.7% 26.4% .150 .284 .225 .298 .375 .294 Travis Jankowski 404 8.7% 21.5% .075 .313 .242 .312 .317 .301 Hunter Renfroe 586 4.8% 27.6% .186 .295 .240 .278 .426 .300 Christian Bethancourt 348 3.7% 21.8% .125 .293 .245 .274 .370 .281 Jabari Blash 376 10.9% 34.6% .216 .296 .219 .319 .435 .330 Cory Spangenberg 262 7.6% 22.1% .145 .328 .261 .319 .406 .314 Carlos Asuaje 558 7.2% 19.7% .123 .292 .243 .301 .366 .295 Alex Dickerson 457 6.6% 19.9% .172 .297 .257 .313 .429 .315 Luis Urias 478 6.5% 9.4% .099 .266 .248 .314 .347 .303 Adam Rosales 250 8.8% 28.4% .156 .304 .232 .304 .388 .304 Jose Rondon 496 3.8% 17.7% .099 .287 .244 .275 .343 .273 Rocky Gale 340 5.0% 17.4% .071 .280 .236 .282 .307 .256 Casey McElroy 402 7.2% 19.2% .096 .282 .234 .298 .330 .276 Josh VanMeter 401 8.0% 20.4% .131 .279 .235 .298 .366 .295 Brett Wallace 371 7.8% 30.2% .149 .303 .228 .302 .377 .292 Jose Pirela 369 5.4% 15.2% .122 .282 .250 .293 .372 .292 Ty France 471 8.3% 22.9% .128 .284 .231 .319 .359 .309 Jemile Weeks 227 8.8% 18.9% .084 .278 .224 .299 .308 .274 Javier Guerra 474 5.7% 38.2% .143 .290 .195 .242 .338 .257 Oswaldo Arcia 373 7.2% 31.9% .204 .293 .227 .292 .431 .309 Nick Noonan 383 5.0% 26.6% .082 .289 .216 .256 .298 .244 Jason Hagerty 231 7.8% 23.8% .148 .284 .230 .303 .378 .301 Alexi Amarista 328 6.1% 15.5% .083 .269 .237 .283 .320 .262 Michael Gettys 562 4.8% 37.4% .119 .305 .200 .246 .319 .261 Franchy Cordero 591 5.1% 30.3% .118 .301 .217 .263 .335 .270 Taylor Lindsey 448 7.6% 21.9% .133 .274 .225 .287 .358 .283 Stephen McGee 221 9.0% 28.1% .072 .276 .200 .281 .272 .253 Luis Sardinas 484 4.5% 17.8% .057 .293 .241 .278 .298 .258 Nick Torres 467 3.6% 28.3% .118 .304 .227 .266 .345 .270 Hector Sanchez 151 5.3% 22.5% .152 .277 .239 .287 .391 .290 Jamie Romak 336 7.4% 32.4% .177 .277 .209 .271 .386 .285 Mike Olt 292 9.6% 37.3% .168 .273 .192 .271 .360 .278 Josh Naylor 547 4.0% 22.1% .121 .310 .254 .286 .375 .291 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Wil Myers 621 5.8 118 6 3.4 Derrek Lee Manuel Margot 581 4.2 86 9 2.6 Alexis Rios Yangervis Solarte 519 5.1 106 -2 2.5 Terry Pendleton Ryan Schimpf 466 5.1 115 -8 2.0 Mike Pagliarulo Austin Hedges 368 3.8 85 5 2.0 Mike Rivera Derek Norris 450 3.9 86 -4 1.7 Marty Castillo Travis Jankowski 404 3.8 76 7 1.6 Curtis Goodwin Hunter Renfroe 586 4.2 92 6 1.5 Dante Bichette Christian Bethancourt 348 3.6 77 3 1.3 Jorge Pedre Jabari Blash 376 4.7 107 -1 1.3 Brent Cookson Cory Spangenberg 262 4.8 100 0 1.1 Mariano Duncan Carlos Asuaje 558 3.9 84 -3 1.1 Chris Pittaro Alex Dickerson 457 4.9 104 -4 1.0 Troy O’Leary Luis Urias 478 3.3 84 2 1.0 Erik Laseke Adam Rosales 250 4.1 91 2 1.0 Dave Matranga Jose Rondon 496 3.3 70 3 0.9 Mike Huyler Rocky Gale 340 3.0 64 4 0.9 Brian Loyd Casey McElroy 402 3.4 74 3 0.8 Lou Merloni Josh VanMeter 401 3.8 83 -3 0.6 Ken Bonifay Brett Wallace 371 4.0 87 -5 0.6 Ray Giannelli Jose Pirela 369 3.9 84 2 0.4 Pat Watkins Ty France 471 3.8 88 2 0.3 Steve Goodell Jemile Weeks 227 3.3 70 0 0.2 Frank Kellner Javier Guerra 474 2.5 59 4 0.2 Justin Lincoln Oswaldo Arcia 373 4.3 98 -6 0.2 Dann Howitt Nick Noonan 383 2.6 54 4 0.1 Gary Green Jason Hagerty 231 4.0 88 -1 0.0 Chris Pritchett Alexi Amarista 328 3.4 67 -2 -0.1 Donovan Mitchell Michael Gettys 562 2.5 56 7 -0.1 Andre King Franchy Cordero 591 2.9 65 2 -0.1 Jimmy White Taylor Lindsey 448 3.5 78 3 -0.2 Matt Bowser Stephen McGee 221 2.5 55 -4 -0.3 Jean Boscan Luis Sardinas 484 3.0 60 -4 -0.3 Curtis Wilkerson Nick Torres 467 3.2 68 3 -0.4 Steve Murphy Hector Sanchez 151 4.0 86 -4 -0.5 Dan Dimascio Jamie Romak 336 3.6 80 -2 -0.5 Dustan Mohr Mike Olt 292 3.2 73 -2 -0.6 Danny Peoples Josh Naylor 547 3.9 82 -3 -0.8 Robin Jennings *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Tyson Ross R 30 21 21 124.7 116 55 12 121 60 56 Dinelson Lamet R 24 27 27 135.0 127 68 15 130 70 65 Brad Hand L 27 76 0 81.0 99 32 8 65 31 29 Phil Maton R 24 34 0 44.7 56 12 5 37 16 15 Ryan Buchter L 30 55 0 56.0 67 27 6 45 22 21 Rafael De Paula R 26 46 0 64.7 76 26 6 55 27 25 Carter Capps R 26 25 0 28.3 39 11 3 22 10 9 Kyle McGrath L 24 46 0 65.7 66 14 8 62 28 26 Clayton Richard L 33 27 10 66.0 39 21 7 74 33 31 Colin Rea R 26 23 22 114.3 86 41 14 119 62 58 Kevin Quackenbush R 28 68 0 68.7 64 23 7 64 30 28 Buddy Baumann L 29 36 4 60.0 56 24 6 57 29 27 Paul Clemens R 29 27 16 96.3 79 42 13 99 52 49 Brad Wieck L 25 42 0 52.0 61 27 6 45 24 22 Jon Edwards R 29 28 0 28.3 36 17 3 24 13 12 Cesar Vargas R 25 29 4 60.7 55 21 7 60 31 29 Andrew Lockett R 23 25 22 132.7 85 31 19 147 75 70 Christian Friedrich L 29 41 16 109.0 91 43 13 112 60 56 Jason Jester R 26 40 0 49.7 46 15 6 49 24 22 Keith Hessler L 28 55 0 64.7 60 25 7 64 31 29 Carlos Villanueva R 33 42 0 64.7 56 17 8 65 31 29 Matt Thornton L 40 30 0 23.3 15 8 3 25 12 11 Brandon Morrow R 32 21 6 49.7 35 17 6 53 28 26 Brandon Maurer R 26 66 0 65.0 63 21 7 61 32 30 Jose Ruiz R 22 47 0 39.3 44 22 4 35 20 19 Erik Johnson R 27 21 20 112.3 89 49 16 117 66 62 Jose Torres L 23 54 0 62.3 57 30 7 61 32 30 Daniel Moskos L 31 32 0 37.3 29 16 4 39 20 19 Jarred Cosart R 27 24 24 120.0 81 61 14 125 72 67 Carlos Pimentel R 27 27 23 127.3 104 58 19 133 76 71 Robbie Erlin L 26 14 13 72.3 56 21 12 78 45 42 Justin Hancock R 26 12 12 58.7 38 26 8 66 37 35 Eric Yardley R 26 50 0 66.0 44 20 8 71 35 33 Aaron Northcraft R 27 30 13 92.7 70 41 12 99 56 52 Kyle Lloyd R 26 28 19 117.3 93 49 17 126 71 66 Seth Rosin R 28 28 0 40.3 29 14 6 44 25 23 Luis Perdomo R 24 29 20 132.7 98 44 19 152 80 75 Edwin Jackson R 33 25 22 118.3 82 49 16 127 73 68 Jake Smith R 27 35 0 33.0 33 26 4 32 21 20 Enyel De Los Santos R 21 21 19 93.0 68 38 15 102 60 56 Bryan Rodriguez R 25 25 24 135.7 75 48 18 157 86 80 Michael Kelly R 24 23 22 108.7 81 52 17 119 72 67 Daniel McCutchen R 34 25 20 117.3 70 32 22 138 77 72 Tim Berry L 26 24 17 91.7 60 50 15 105 67 63 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Tyson Ross 124.7 550 21.1% 10.0% .302 4.04 4.00 101 97 Dinelson Lamet 135.0 603 21.1% 11.3% .299 4.33 4.44 108 107 Brad Hand 81.0 340 29.1% 9.4% .285 3.22 3.14 80 76 Phil Maton 44.7 183 30.6% 6.6% .299 3.02 3.14 75 76 Ryan Buchter 56.0 240 27.9% 11.3% .283 3.37 3.63 84 88 Rafael De Paula 64.7 275 27.6% 9.5% .300 3.48 3.43 87 83 Carter Capps 28.3 118 33.1% 9.3% .302 2.86 3.19 71 77 Kyle McGrath 65.7 273 24.2% 5.1% .298 3.56 3.58 89 87 Clayton Richard 66.0 293 13.3% 7.2% .299 4.23 4.34 106 105 Colin Rea 114.3 503 17.1% 8.2% .296 4.57 4.48 114 109 Kevin Quackenbush 68.7 293 21.8% 7.8% .288 3.67 3.57 92 86 Buddy Baumann 60.0 261 21.5% 9.2% .297 4.05 3.92 101 95 Paul Clemens 96.3 430 18.4% 9.8% .296 4.58 4.77 114 115 Brad Wieck 52.0 228 26.8% 11.8% .298 3.81 4.07 95 99 Jon Edwards 28.3 126 28.6% 13.5% .305 3.81 3.93 95 95 Cesar Vargas 60.7 263 20.9% 8.0% .299 4.30 4.01 107 97 Andrew Lockett 132.7 576 14.8% 5.4% .296 4.75 4.65 119 113 Christian Friedrich 109.0 482 18.9% 8.9% .298 4.62 4.28 115 104 Jason Jester 49.7 213 21.6% 7.0% .300 3.99 3.93 100 95 Keith Hessler 64.7 283 21.2% 8.8% .303 4.04 3.94 101 95 Carlos Villanueva 64.7 276 20.3% 6.2% .295 4.04 3.80 101 92 Matt Thornton 23.3 103 14.6% 7.8% .290 4.24 4.60 106 111 Brandon Morrow 49.7 219 16.0% 7.8% .294 4.71 4.43 118 107 Brandon Maurer 65.0 277 22.7% 7.6% .293 4.15 3.57 104 86 Jose Ruiz 39.3 175 25.2% 12.6% .298 4.35 4.03 109 97 Erik Johnson 112.3 503 17.7% 9.7% .294 4.97 4.90 124 119 Jose Torres 62.3 278 20.5% 10.8% .299 4.33 4.36 108 106 Daniel Moskos 37.3 167 17.4% 9.6% .302 4.58 4.47 114 108 Jarred Cosart 120.0 546 14.8% 11.2% .288 5.02 4.95 125 120 Carlos Pimentel 127.3 573 18.2% 10.1% .296 5.02 5.00 125 121 Robbie Erlin 72.3 316 17.7% 6.6% .295 5.23 4.79 131 116 Justin Hancock 58.7 268 14.2% 9.7% .300 5.37 5.09 134 123 Eric Yardley 66.0 289 15.2% 6.9% .294 4.50 4.38 112 106 Aaron Northcraft 92.7 418 16.7% 9.8% .300 5.05 4.82 126 117 Kyle Lloyd 117.3 527 17.7% 9.3% .302 5.06 4.92 126 119 Seth Rosin 40.3 179 16.2% 7.8% .297 5.13 4.80 128 116 Luis Perdomo 132.7 594 16.5% 7.4% .312 5.09 4.63 127 112 Edwin Jackson 118.3 531 15.4% 9.2% .291 5.17 4.80 129 116 Jake Smith 33.0 157 21.0% 16.6% .304 5.45 5.22 136 126 Enyel De Los Santos 93.0 419 16.2% 9.1% .298 5.42 5.24 135 127 Bryan Rodriguez 135.7 612 12.3% 7.8% .300 5.31 5.00 133 121 Michael Kelly 108.7 497 16.3% 10.5% .299 5.55 5.30 139 128 Daniel McCutchen 117.3 522 13.4% 6.1% .296 5.52 5.35 138 130 Tim Berry 91.7 430 14.0% 11.6% .300 6.19 5.80 155 141 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Tyson Ross 124.7 8.37 3.97 0.87 92 1.2 Pat Rapp Dinelson Lamet 135.0 8.47 4.53 1.00 86 0.8 Larry Mitchell Brad Hand 81.0 11.00 3.56 0.89 115 0.8 Neal Cotts Phil Maton 44.7 11.28 2.42 1.01 123 0.6 Edwin Nunez Ryan Buchter 56.0 10.77 4.34 0.96 110 0.5 J.C. Romero Rafael De Paula 64.7 10.57 3.62 0.83 107 0.4 Buddy Hernandez Carter Capps 28.3 12.40 3.50 0.95 130 0.4 Bobby Castillo Kyle McGrath 65.7 9.04 1.92 1.10 104 0.4 Ryan Meaux Clayton Richard 66.0 5.32 2.86 0.95 88 0.3 Clarence Mitchell Colin Rea 114.3 6.77 3.23 1.10 81 0.3 Jeff Paluk Kevin Quackenbush 68.7 8.38 3.01 0.92 101 0.3 Mike DeJean Buddy Baumann 60.0 8.40 3.60 0.90 92 0.2 Randy Choate Paul Clemens 96.3 7.38 3.93 1.21 81 0.2 Hal Griggs Brad Wieck 52.0 10.56 4.67 1.04 97 0.1 Buzz Oliver Jon Edwards 28.3 11.45 5.41 0.95 97 0.1 Bart Miadich Cesar Vargas 60.7 8.15 3.11 1.04 86 0.1 Jason Cole Andrew Lockett 132.7 5.76 2.10 1.29 78 0.0 Paul Quantrill Christian Friedrich 109.0 7.51 3.55 1.07 80 0.0 Matt White Jason Jester 49.7 8.33 2.72 1.09 93 0.0 Barry Johnson Keith Hessler 64.7 8.35 3.48 0.97 92 0.0 Tim Hamulack Carlos Villanueva 64.7 7.79 2.36 1.11 92 0.0 Jose Bautista Matt Thornton 23.3 5.79 3.09 1.16 87 -0.1 Joe Hoerner Brandon Morrow 49.7 6.34 3.08 1.09 79 -0.1 Jose Santiago Brandon Maurer 65.0 8.72 2.91 0.97 89 -0.1 Bo McLaughlin Jose Ruiz 39.3 10.08 5.04 0.92 85 -0.2 Josh Banks Erik Johnson 112.3 7.13 3.93 1.28 75 -0.3 Darrell Rodgers Jose Torres 62.3 8.23 4.33 1.01 86 -0.3 Mark Dempsey Daniel Moskos 37.3 7.00 3.86 0.97 81 -0.3 Joey Eischen Jarred Cosart 120.0 6.08 4.58 1.05 74 -0.4 Elvin Nina Carlos Pimentel 127.3 7.35 4.10 1.34 74 -0.4 Ryan Glynn Robbie Erlin 72.3 6.97 2.61 1.49 71 -0.4 Rich Pratt Justin Hancock 58.7 5.83 3.99 1.23 69 -0.5 Gary Goldsmith Eric Yardley 66.0 6.00 2.73 1.09 82 -0.5 Matt Wilhite Aaron Northcraft 92.7 6.80 3.98 1.17 73 -0.5 Timothy Smith Kyle Lloyd 117.3 7.14 3.76 1.30 73 -0.5 Chris Enochs Seth Rosin 40.3 6.48 3.13 1.34 72 -0.6 Alan Benes Luis Perdomo 132.7 6.65 2.98 1.29 73 -0.6 Matt Childers Edwin Jackson 118.3 6.24 3.73 1.22 72 -0.6 Russ Ortiz Jake Smith 33.0 9.00 7.09 1.09 68 -0.7 Johnny Humphries Enyel De Los Santos 93.0 6.58 3.68 1.45 68 -0.8 Brian Ahern Bryan Rodriguez 135.7 4.97 3.18 1.19 70 -1.0 Luis Mendoza Michael Kelly 108.7 6.71 4.31 1.41 67 -1.1 Ryan Glynn Daniel McCutchen 117.3 5.37 2.46 1.69 67 -1.2 Jose Lima Tim Berry 91.7 5.89 4.91 1.47 60 -1.8 Matt White *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.