2017 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
This Yankees club — on the field-playing side, at least — offers an almost perfect case study in the Completely Average. Five of the club’s nine likely starters — Starlin Castro (624 PA, 2.1 zWAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (561, 2.1), Brett Gardner (587, 2.0), Chase Headley (531, 2.2), and Aaron Judge (522, 2.2) — are projected by Dan Szymborski’s computer to produce between 2.0 and 2.2 wins in 2017. A sixth, Didi Gregorius (586, 2.5), is only a tenth of a win from rounding down to two.

Even the more extremes cases preserve the equilibrium. On the strength both of his youth and a fantastic debut, catcher Gary Sanchez (499, 4.0) earns the club’s top projection. The team’s array of first basemen and DHs, meanwhile, offset whatever surplus wins Sanchez provides. The result, once again, is vehemently average.

Pitchers
The 2016 Yankees featured two of baseball’s most prominent FIP underpeformers. Michael Pineda recorded an ERA about a run higher than his fielding-independent numbers suggested he should; Luis Severino, about one-and-a-half runs higher. The result: a discrepancy between that version of WAR calculated by way of FIP and the other sort, calculated by way of runs allowed. Unsurprisingly, ZiPS calls for regression all the way around, calling for slightly less strong fielding-independent performances from the pair, coupled with slightly better run-prevention. Because the latter metric is the one that actually descibes what occurs on the field, this would seem to represent a net-win for the club.

As for the bullpen, it’s hardly a surprise to find that it’s a strength. The combination of Dellin Betances (76.2 IP, 1.9 zWAR) and Aroldis Chapman (57.2, 1.4), in particular, appears to represent the strongest relief twosome in the majors — or the strongest of all those considered in this series of ZiPS projections so far, at least. By comparison, Cody Allen (67.0, 1.1) and Andrew Miller (62.0, 1.9) are forecast to record 0.3 fewer wins.

Bench/Prospects
In outfielder Clint Frazier (555 PA, 1.9 zWAR), New York has of the top rookie-eligible players in baseball, according to Szymborski’s model. Acquired in the deal that sent Andrew Miller to Cleveland, Frazier has produced above-average power numbers in the minors while also experiencing periodic issues with contact. ZiPS calls for more of the same (.195 ISO, 30.1% K). Combined with roughly average center-field defense, however, the result is a roughly average major leaguer.

Among pitchers, there doesn’t appear to be much depth. Right-hander Bryan Mitchell (80.0 IP, -0.6 zWAR) is a candidate to join the rotation; his projection for 2017 is decidely not promising, however. While the bullpen doesn’t feature a wealth of minor-league options, either, there is Jonathan Holder (67.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR). Recognized in late November by Jeff Sullivan as the most dominant pitcher in the minors, Holder receives the club’s third-best ERA projection (85 ERA-) after Betances and Chapman.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

***

***

***

***

***

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.