2017 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays
After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.
Batters
Due to their limited resources, the Rays have been compelled to search for value in places where it isn’t readily apparent. These financial constraints, for example, led pretty directly to the phenomenon known as Ben Zobrist, Improbable Superstar. The ascent of Kevin Kiermaier (502 PA, 4.2 zWAR) is almost equally improbable as Zobrist’s, though. Selected in the 31st round of the 2010 draft out of Parkland College, Kiermaier has now averaged more than four wins per season over his first three major-league campaigns. Much of that value, of course, is a product of Kiermaier’s defensive acumen. ZiPS calls for more of the same in that regard, projecting Kiermaier to save 17 more runs than the average center fielder.
With the exception of Evan Longoria (658, 3.9), unfortunately, the club doesn’t currently employ any field players who profile as anything much better than average — and the short-term prognosis for newly acquired Wilson Ramos (465, 2.5), one of only four batters who receives a forecast for more than two wins, is uncertain in light of the season-ending injury he suffered at the end of 2016.
Pitchers
Please note, while regarding the depth-chart image below, that the members of the Rays’ starting rotation are arranged in order of projected WAR, not in the order they’re likely to be deployed by manager Kevin Cash. Here’s why such a note is relevant: owing to his youth and relative inexperience, left-hander Blake Snell (148.0 IP, 2.5 zWAR) isn’t expected to enter the 2017 season as Tampa Bay’s No. 3 starter. That he’s qualifed to fill such a role, however, is an argument one could make based on the numbers produced by Dan Szymborski’s computer. Another argument one could make is that Chris Archer (195.1, 4.1) is more likely to resemble the 2015, and not 2016, version of himself this next year.
The Rays bullpen produced the second-fewest collective wins in the league last year by the version of WAR calculated with fielding-independent pitching (FIP-WAR) and finished among the bottom third of all clubs by the version of WAR calculated with runs allowed (RA9-WAR). That’s poor. While the group here doesn’t seem to profile as obviously elite, they do look something much closer to average than their 2016 numbers would suggest. Alex Colome (61.1, 1.0) receives the top projection.
Bench/Prospects
First baseman Jake Bauers (581 PA, 1.6 zWAR) enters just his age-21 season, but possesses the top projection among all Tampa Bay field players unlikely to appear in the club’s starting lineup. Like Bauers, infielders Willy Adames (534, 1.2) and Daniel Robertson (475, 1.3) also have recorded zero plate appearances. Per ZiPS, however, they already offer the value of a competent major-league bench player.
Among pitchers, Matt Andriese (143.0 IP, 2.3 zWAR) receives a distinctly positive forecast — that of a slightly above-average starter — for a player who both (a) recorded a considerable quantity of innings this past year but (b) is nevertheless likely to begin this next year at Triple-A. He provides excellent depth for the rotation. Right-hander Brent Honeywell (127.1, 1.0) earns the top WAR projections among pitching prospects. He spoke with Eno Sarris at the Arizona Fall League about his screwball.
Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Kiermaier | L | 27 | CF | 502 | 63 | 118 | 22 | 8 | 13 | 46 | 18 | 5 |
Evan Longoria | R | 31 | 3B | 658 | 79 | 160 | 36 | 3 | 30 | 88 | 1 | 2 |
Wilson Ramos | R | 29 | C | 465 | 43 | 113 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
Logan Forsythe | R | 30 | 2B | 496 | 61 | 115 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 6 | 4 |
Matt M. Duffy | R | 26 | SS | 512 | 59 | 120 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 51 | 11 | 3 |
Jake Bauers | L | 21 | RF | 581 | 73 | 132 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 71 | 8 | 6 |
Brad Miller | L | 27 | 1B | 538 | 66 | 120 | 23 | 5 | 20 | 66 | 7 | 4 |
Corey Dickerson | L | 28 | LF | 460 | 51 | 107 | 27 | 3 | 19 | 55 | 3 | 3 |
Daniel Robertson | R | 23 | SS | 475 | 50 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 2 | 2 |
Steven Souza | R | 28 | RF | 442 | 58 | 96 | 17 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 11 | 6 |
Willy Adames | R | 21 | SS | 534 | 61 | 109 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 8 | 4 |
Desmond Jennings | R | 30 | LF | 311 | 36 | 65 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 3 |
Nick Franklin | B | 26 | 2B | 463 | 51 | 98 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 10 | 2 |
Casey Gillaspie | B | 24 | 1B | 479 | 62 | 104 | 20 | 1 | 18 | 57 | 3 | 1 |
Ryan Brett | B | 24 | 2B | 420 | 46 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 6 |
Curt Casali | R | 28 | C | 311 | 34 | 57 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Tim Beckham | R | 27 | SS | 264 | 29 | 57 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 3 |
Luke Maile | R | 26 | C | 364 | 36 | 70 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 1 |
Hank Conger | B | 29 | C | 246 | 21 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 1 |
Johnny Field | R | 25 | CF | 487 | 53 | 104 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 5 |
Justin O’Conner | R | 25 | C | 286 | 27 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 2 | 1 |
J.P. Arencibia | R | 31 | C | 371 | 40 | 77 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 52 | 0 | 1 |
Mike Marjama | R | 27 | C | 329 | 34 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 2 | 2 |
Cade Gotta | R | 25 | RF | 372 | 38 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 14 | 5 |
Dayron Varona | R | 29 | RF | 426 | 45 | 95 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 49 | 7 | 5 |
Logan Morrison | L | 29 | 1B | 434 | 49 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 5 | 3 |
Justin Williams | L | 21 | RF | 461 | 48 | 110 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 2 | 2 |
Eury Perez | R | 27 | LF | 322 | 32 | 72 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 6 |
Mikie Mahtook | R | 27 | CF | 461 | 47 | 97 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 3 |
Jake Goebbert | L | 29 | LF | 401 | 47 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 2 | 2 |
Joe McCarthy | L | 23 | 1B | 382 | 42 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 13 | 5 |
Alexei Ramirez | R | 35 | SS | 542 | 51 | 127 | 25 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 14 | 7 |
Kean Wong | L | 22 | 2B | 511 | 48 | 114 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 10 | 10 |
Jake Hager | R | 24 | 2B | 511 | 44 | 107 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 6 | 5 |
***
Player | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Kiermaier | 502 | 7.0% | 18.9% | .168 | .298 | .258 | .316 | .426 | .328 |
Evan Longoria | 658 | 6.8% | 21.7% | .219 | .298 | .266 | .318 | .485 | .334 |
Wilson Ramos | 465 | 5.4% | 18.1% | .156 | .284 | .260 | .299 | .416 | .304 |
Logan Forsythe | 496 | 8.1% | 20.4% | .162 | .302 | .259 | .329 | .421 | .329 |
Matt M. Duffy | 512 | 5.9% | 18.6% | .125 | .295 | .255 | .304 | .380 | .301 |
Jake Bauers | 581 | 8.4% | 20.7% | .162 | .294 | .253 | .320 | .415 | .322 |
Brad Miller | 538 | 8.6% | 23.0% | .192 | .291 | .248 | .313 | .440 | .328 |
Corey Dickerson | 460 | 6.5% | 25.9% | .210 | .302 | .251 | .300 | .461 | .322 |
Daniel Robertson | 475 | 8.0% | 21.3% | .099 | .301 | .241 | .316 | .340 | .294 |
Steven Souza | 442 | 8.6% | 32.1% | .177 | .329 | .242 | .314 | .419 | .328 |
Willy Adames | 534 | 9.2% | 32.4% | .137 | .327 | .228 | .300 | .365 | .296 |
Desmond Jennings | 311 | 9.0% | 21.5% | .153 | .282 | .236 | .312 | .389 | .312 |
Nick Franklin | 463 | 8.4% | 24.8% | .141 | .294 | .235 | .302 | .376 | .299 |
Casey Gillaspie | 479 | 9.6% | 26.1% | .178 | .300 | .244 | .319 | .422 | .322 |
Ryan Brett | 420 | 4.0% | 21.7% | .121 | .295 | .244 | .282 | .365 | .291 |
Curt Casali | 311 | 10.0% | 28.9% | .139 | .274 | .209 | .298 | .348 | .285 |
Tim Beckham | 264 | 6.1% | 29.5% | .152 | .319 | .236 | .286 | .388 | .295 |
Luke Maile | 364 | 6.0% | 22.5% | .099 | .259 | .208 | .260 | .307 | .250 |
Hank Conger | 246 | 7.7% | 25.2% | .153 | .260 | .212 | .279 | .365 | .280 |
Johnny Field | 487 | 4.9% | 27.1% | .148 | .296 | .231 | .278 | .379 | .292 |
Justin O’Conner | 286 | 2.8% | 36.7% | .138 | .294 | .204 | .231 | .342 | .249 |
J.P. Arencibia | 371 | 2.7% | 33.4% | .191 | .274 | .217 | .245 | .408 | .279 |
Mike Marjama | 329 | 3.0% | 21.0% | .134 | .289 | .243 | .271 | .377 | .281 |
Cade Gotta | 372 | 5.6% | 23.7% | .115 | .290 | .231 | .275 | .346 | .281 |
Dayron Varona | 426 | 2.8% | 22.1% | .158 | .275 | .235 | .265 | .393 | .289 |
Logan Morrison | 434 | 9.0% | 18.0% | .157 | .271 | .242 | .318 | .399 | .313 |
Justin Williams | 461 | 2.4% | 23.9% | .137 | .301 | .247 | .267 | .384 | .281 |
Eury Perez | 322 | 4.0% | 19.9% | .081 | .301 | .243 | .289 | .324 | .284 |
Mikie Mahtook | 461 | 5.2% | 28.4% | .124 | .304 | .228 | .278 | .352 | .279 |
Jake Goebbert | 401 | 9.2% | 24.9% | .135 | .275 | .221 | .297 | .356 | .288 |
Joe McCarthy | 382 | 8.6% | 20.2% | .116 | .285 | .238 | .318 | .354 | .307 |
Alexei Ramirez | 542 | 3.9% | 12.0% | .103 | .268 | .247 | .279 | .350 | .281 |
Kean Wong | 511 | 4.9% | 19.4% | .080 | .292 | .241 | .278 | .321 | .269 |
Jake Hager | 511 | 4.3% | 24.3% | .069 | .293 | .223 | .259 | .292 | .245 |
***
Player | PA | RC/27 | OPS+ | Def | zWAR | No.1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Kiermaier | 502 | 5.1 | 105 | 17 | 4.2 | Ken Landreaux |
Evan Longoria | 658 | 5.6 | 120 | -1 | 3.9 | Gary Gaetti |
Wilson Ramos | 465 | 4.5 | 97 | 1 | 2.5 | Shanty Hogan |
Logan Forsythe | 496 | 5.0 | 108 | 0 | 2.5 | Junior Spivey |
Matt M. Duffy | 512 | 4.3 | 90 | -2 | 1.7 | Jason Bartlett |
Jake Bauers | 581 | 4.7 | 103 | 2 | 1.6 | Nick Markakis |
Brad Miller | 538 | 4.9 | 108 | 3 | 1.5 | Ben Broussard |
Corey Dickerson | 460 | 4.9 | 109 | 1 | 1.4 | Kevin Reimer |
Daniel Robertson | 475 | 3.8 | 84 | 0 | 1.3 | Pedro Castellano |
Steven Souza | 442 | 4.7 | 103 | 1 | 1.3 | Jack Voigt |
Willy Adames | 534 | 3.8 | 85 | -3 | 1.2 | Alex Gonzalez |
Desmond Jennings | 311 | 4.4 | 95 | 6 | 1.2 | Melvin Mora |
Nick Franklin | 463 | 4.2 | 88 | -2 | 1.0 | Jay Canizaro |
Casey Gillaspie | 479 | 4.8 | 105 | 0 | 1.0 | Mo Vaughn |
Ryan Brett | 420 | 3.7 | 78 | 2 | 0.7 | John Wehner |
Curt Casali | 311 | 3.5 | 80 | -3 | 0.7 | B.J. Waszgis |
Tim Beckham | 264 | 3.8 | 86 | -1 | 0.6 | Chris Woodward |
Luke Maile | 364 | 2.7 | 58 | 5 | 0.6 | Brian Moon |
Hank Conger | 246 | 3.4 | 78 | -2 | 0.5 | Alan Ashby |
Johnny Field | 487 | 3.7 | 81 | -3 | 0.4 | Jim Lindeman |
Justin O’Conner | 286 | 2.7 | 57 | 3 | 0.3 | Johnny Cuevas |
J.P. Arencibia | 371 | 3.4 | 78 | -7 | 0.3 | Dave Duncan |
Mike Marjama | 329 | 3.6 | 79 | -6 | 0.2 | Edwin Bellorin |
Cade Gotta | 372 | 3.5 | 72 | 6 | 0.2 | Kyle Logan |
Dayron Varona | 426 | 3.6 | 81 | 4 | 0.2 | Nate Grindell |
Logan Morrison | 434 | 4.5 | 99 | -3 | 0.1 | Brad Bierley |
Justin Williams | 461 | 3.6 | 79 | 4 | 0.1 | Pedro Valdes |
Eury Perez | 322 | 3.6 | 71 | 4 | 0.0 | Peter Bergeron |
Mikie Mahtook | 461 | 3.5 | 75 | -3 | 0.0 | Joaquin Contreras |
Jake Goebbert | 401 | 3.6 | 82 | 1 | 0.0 | Pat Brady |
Joe McCarthy | 382 | 4.1 | 88 | 0 | 0.0 | Tom Lombarski |
Alexei Ramirez | 542 | 3.5 | 75 | -9 | -0.3 | Bill Russell |
Kean Wong | 511 | 3.0 | 67 | -1 | -0.6 | Gregorio Petit |
Jake Hager | 511 | 2.5 | 54 | -1 | -1.4 | Travis Hanson |
***
Player | T | Age | G | GS | IP | K | BB | HR | H | R | ER |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Archer | R | 28 | 32 | 32 | 195.3 | 222 | 64 | 20 | 168 | 79 | 74 |
Jake Odorizzi | R | 27 | 31 | 31 | 177.3 | 166 | 53 | 21 | 164 | 78 | 73 |
Blake Snell | L | 24 | 30 | 29 | 148.0 | 170 | 72 | 16 | 131 | 65 | 61 |
Matt Andriese | R | 27 | 36 | 22 | 143.0 | 126 | 30 | 16 | 140 | 63 | 59 |
Drew Smyly | L | 28 | 26 | 25 | 143.0 | 141 | 41 | 19 | 133 | 66 | 62 |
Alex Cobb | R | 29 | 17 | 17 | 102.0 | 85 | 35 | 11 | 100 | 47 | 44 |
Brent Honeywell | R | 22 | 25 | 25 | 127.3 | 104 | 36 | 17 | 130 | 66 | 62 |
Alex Colome | R | 28 | 61 | 0 | 61.3 | 73 | 17 | 7 | 51 | 21 | 20 |
Chase Whitley | R | 28 | 18 | 12 | 62.7 | 53 | 18 | 8 | 63 | 31 | 29 |
Jacob Faria | R | 23 | 25 | 24 | 131.3 | 124 | 66 | 17 | 125 | 73 | 68 |
Austin Pruitt | R | 27 | 26 | 25 | 142.0 | 101 | 34 | 21 | 154 | 79 | 74 |
Chih-Wei Hu | R | 23 | 24 | 23 | 125.7 | 89 | 42 | 17 | 134 | 71 | 66 |
Xavier Cedeno | L | 30 | 55 | 0 | 42.3 | 47 | 13 | 5 | 37 | 17 | 16 |
Danny Farquhar | R | 30 | 65 | 0 | 73.7 | 72 | 24 | 9 | 69 | 33 | 31 |
Brad Boxberger | R | 29 | 54 | 0 | 51.3 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 42 | 22 | 21 |
Jaime Schultz | R | 26 | 24 | 24 | 107.3 | 116 | 68 | 15 | 99 | 61 | 57 |
Adam Wilk | L | 29 | 21 | 19 | 113.0 | 79 | 31 | 17 | 124 | 64 | 60 |
Hunter Wood | R | 23 | 24 | 15 | 98.3 | 86 | 45 | 13 | 97 | 56 | 52 |
Jaye Chapman | R | 30 | 44 | 0 | 44.7 | 45 | 15 | 6 | 42 | 20 | 19 |
Diego Moreno | R | 29 | 33 | 2 | 58.3 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 57 | 29 | 27 |
Andrew Kittredge | R | 27 | 39 | 3 | 77.7 | 67 | 27 | 10 | 77 | 40 | 37 |
Dana Eveland | L | 33 | 45 | 3 | 55.3 | 47 | 21 | 6 | 56 | 28 | 26 |
Kevin Gadea | R | 22 | 21 | 0 | 27.7 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 12 |
Erasmo Ramirez | R | 27 | 66 | 0 | 86.0 | 52 | 25 | 11 | 90 | 42 | 39 |
Justin Marks | L | 29 | 26 | 16 | 103.7 | 81 | 48 | 14 | 107 | 60 | 56 |
Taylor Guerrieri | R | 24 | 23 | 22 | 112.7 | 69 | 41 | 16 | 123 | 66 | 62 |
Kevin Jepsen | R | 32 | 65 | 0 | 56.3 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 54 | 28 | 26 |
Jonny Venters | L | 32 | 10 | 0 | 10.3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 5 |
Eddie Gamboa | R | 32 | 25 | 14 | 91.3 | 76 | 57 | 11 | 89 | 54 | 50 |
Andrew Bellatti | R | 25 | 30 | 2 | 48.3 | 45 | 19 | 7 | 47 | 26 | 24 |
Dylan Floro | R | 26 | 56 | 0 | 72.7 | 49 | 16 | 9 | 78 | 36 | 34 |
Burch Smith | R | 26 | 9 | 9 | 41.7 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 45 | 26 | 24 |
Grayson Garvin | L | 27 | 11 | 10 | 39.7 | 27 | 14 | 6 | 44 | 25 | 23 |
Ryan Garton | R | 27 | 50 | 0 | 67.0 | 58 | 28 | 8 | 66 | 34 | 32 |
Kyle Bird | L | 24 | 40 | 0 | 64.7 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 65 | 33 | 31 |
Casey Coleman | R | 29 | 38 | 2 | 65.7 | 50 | 30 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 33 |
Enny Romero | L | 26 | 61 | 0 | 57.3 | 57 | 28 | 7 | 53 | 30 | 28 |
Neil Wagner | R | 33 | 38 | 0 | 40.0 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 39 | 21 | 20 |
Greg Harris | R | 22 | 26 | 24 | 125.3 | 101 | 65 | 18 | 129 | 76 | 71 |
Ryne Stanek | R | 25 | 26 | 13 | 87.0 | 71 | 45 | 13 | 90 | 54 | 50 |
Christopher Kirsch | L | 25 | 24 | 23 | 125.0 | 79 | 56 | 18 | 138 | 78 | 73 |
Parker Markel | R | 26 | 45 | 0 | 66.3 | 46 | 30 | 8 | 70 | 37 | 35 |
Brad Schreiber | R | 26 | 45 | 0 | 61.0 | 48 | 27 | 9 | 63 | 35 | 33 |
Chris Pike | R | 24 | 24 | 22 | 122.3 | 61 | 44 | 19 | 145 | 81 | 76 |
Jose Alvarado | L | 22 | 38 | 0 | 65.0 | 65 | 66 | 8 | 60 | 44 | 41 |
***
Player | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | ERA- | FIP- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Archer | 195.3 | 818 | 27.1% | 7.8% | .291 | 3.41 | 3.21 | 84 | 79 |
Jake Odorizzi | 177.3 | 749 | 22.2% | 7.1% | .283 | 3.70 | 3.72 | 91 | 91 |
Blake Snell | 148.0 | 647 | 26.3% | 11.1% | .299 | 3.71 | 3.75 | 91 | 92 |
Matt Andriese | 143.0 | 599 | 21.0% | 5.0% | .293 | 3.71 | 3.49 | 91 | 86 |
Drew Smyly | 143.0 | 603 | 23.4% | 6.8% | .285 | 3.90 | 3.74 | 96 | 92 |
Alex Cobb | 102.0 | 441 | 19.3% | 7.9% | .292 | 3.88 | 3.99 | 95 | 98 |
Brent Honeywell | 127.3 | 548 | 19.0% | 6.6% | .294 | 4.38 | 4.22 | 107 | 103 |
Alex Colome | 61.3 | 252 | 29.0% | 6.7% | .288 | 2.93 | 3.09 | 72 | 76 |
Chase Whitley | 62.7 | 269 | 19.7% | 6.7% | .294 | 4.16 | 4.08 | 102 | 100 |
Jacob Faria | 131.3 | 585 | 21.2% | 11.3% | .291 | 4.66 | 4.57 | 114 | 112 |
Austin Pruitt | 142.0 | 614 | 16.4% | 5.5% | .295 | 4.69 | 4.47 | 115 | 110 |
Chih-Wei Hu | 125.7 | 553 | 16.1% | 7.6% | .294 | 4.73 | 4.59 | 116 | 113 |
Xavier Cedeno | 42.3 | 177 | 26.6% | 7.3% | .289 | 3.40 | 3.34 | 83 | 82 |
Danny Farquhar | 73.7 | 314 | 22.9% | 7.6% | .293 | 3.79 | 3.84 | 93 | 94 |
Brad Boxberger | 51.3 | 221 | 29.9% | 11.3% | .289 | 3.68 | 3.77 | 90 | 92 |
Jaime Schultz | 107.3 | 489 | 23.7% | 13.9% | .296 | 4.78 | 4.83 | 117 | 118 |
Adam Wilk | 113.0 | 494 | 16.0% | 6.3% | .296 | 4.78 | 4.62 | 117 | 113 |
Hunter Wood | 98.3 | 437 | 19.7% | 10.3% | .292 | 4.76 | 4.60 | 117 | 113 |
Jaye Chapman | 44.7 | 191 | 23.5% | 7.8% | .292 | 3.83 | 3.91 | 94 | 96 |
Diego Moreno | 58.3 | 253 | 20.2% | 8.3% | .293 | 4.17 | 4.15 | 102 | 102 |
Andrew Kittredge | 77.7 | 337 | 19.9% | 8.0% | .292 | 4.29 | 4.25 | 105 | 104 |
Dana Eveland | 55.3 | 243 | 19.3% | 8.6% | .303 | 4.23 | 4.06 | 104 | 100 |
Kevin Gadea | 27.7 | 118 | 24.6% | 8.5% | .297 | 3.90 | 3.72 | 96 | 91 |
Erasmo Ramirez | 86.0 | 373 | 13.9% | 6.7% | .281 | 4.08 | 4.43 | 100 | 109 |
Justin Marks | 103.7 | 466 | 17.4% | 10.3% | .292 | 4.86 | 4.80 | 119 | 118 |
Taylor Guerrieri | 112.7 | 502 | 13.7% | 8.2% | .289 | 4.95 | 4.98 | 121 | 122 |
Kevin Jepsen | 56.3 | 246 | 20.7% | 9.4% | .285 | 4.15 | 4.03 | 102 | 99 |
Jonny Venters | 10.3 | 47 | 17.1% | 10.7% | .313 | 4.35 | 4.27 | 107 | 105 |
Eddie Gamboa | 91.3 | 420 | 18.1% | 13.6% | .288 | 4.93 | 5.04 | 121 | 124 |
Andrew Bellatti | 48.3 | 211 | 21.3% | 9.0% | .290 | 4.47 | 4.43 | 110 | 109 |
Dylan Floro | 72.7 | 312 | 15.7% | 5.1% | .293 | 4.21 | 4.15 | 103 | 102 |
Burch Smith | 41.7 | 185 | 18.9% | 8.1% | .301 | 5.18 | 4.83 | 127 | 118 |
Grayson Garvin | 39.7 | 177 | 15.2% | 7.9% | .299 | 5.22 | 4.92 | 128 | 121 |
Ryan Garton | 67.0 | 295 | 19.7% | 9.5% | .293 | 4.30 | 4.27 | 105 | 105 |
Kyle Bird | 64.7 | 281 | 18.9% | 7.8% | .292 | 4.31 | 4.19 | 106 | 103 |
Casey Coleman | 65.7 | 294 | 17.0% | 10.2% | .294 | 4.52 | 4.43 | 111 | 109 |
Enny Romero | 57.3 | 253 | 22.5% | 11.1% | .288 | 4.40 | 4.22 | 108 | 103 |
Neil Wagner | 40.0 | 179 | 19.6% | 11.2% | .291 | 4.50 | 4.56 | 110 | 112 |
Greg Harris | 125.3 | 570 | 17.7% | 11.4% | .294 | 5.10 | 5.11 | 125 | 125 |
Ryne Stanek | 87.0 | 396 | 17.9% | 11.4% | .294 | 5.17 | 5.14 | 127 | 126 |
Christopher Kirsch | 125.0 | 569 | 13.9% | 9.8% | .294 | 5.26 | 5.23 | 129 | 128 |
Parker Markel | 66.3 | 299 | 15.4% | 10.0% | .294 | 4.75 | 4.83 | 116 | 118 |
Brad Schreiber | 61.0 | 273 | 17.6% | 9.9% | .290 | 4.87 | 4.88 | 119 | 119 |
Chris Pike | 122.3 | 556 | 11.0% | 7.9% | .297 | 5.59 | 5.38 | 137 | 132 |
Jose Alvarado | 65.0 | 321 | 20.2% | 20.6% | .292 | 5.68 | 5.89 | 139 | 144 |
***
Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | zWAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Archer | 195.3 | 10.23 | 2.95 | 0.92 | 116 | 4.1 | Juan Guzman |
Jake Odorizzi | 177.3 | 8.43 | 2.69 | 1.07 | 107 | 3.0 | Todd Stottlemyre |
Blake Snell | 148.0 | 10.34 | 4.38 | 0.97 | 106 | 2.5 | Tony Saunders |
Matt Andriese | 143.0 | 7.93 | 1.89 | 1.01 | 106 | 2.3 | Ramiro Mendoza |
Drew Smyly | 143.0 | 8.87 | 2.58 | 1.20 | 101 | 2.0 | Mark Redman |
Alex Cobb | 102.0 | 7.50 | 3.09 | 0.97 | 102 | 1.5 | Omar Olivares |
Brent Honeywell | 127.3 | 7.35 | 2.55 | 1.20 | 90 | 1.0 | Kelly Downs |
Alex Colome | 61.3 | 10.72 | 2.50 | 1.03 | 135 | 1.0 | Tim Scott |
Chase Whitley | 62.7 | 7.61 | 2.58 | 1.15 | 95 | 0.6 | Jason Dickson |
Jacob Faria | 131.3 | 8.50 | 4.52 | 1.17 | 85 | 0.6 | Brian Holman |
Austin Pruitt | 142.0 | 6.40 | 2.15 | 1.33 | 84 | 0.6 | Bill King |
Chih-Wei Hu | 125.7 | 6.37 | 3.01 | 1.22 | 84 | 0.4 | Andy Taulbee |
Xavier Cedeno | 42.3 | 10.00 | 2.77 | 1.06 | 116 | 0.4 | Chuck McElroy |
Danny Farquhar | 73.7 | 8.79 | 2.93 | 1.10 | 104 | 0.4 | J.J. Putz |
Brad Boxberger | 51.3 | 11.58 | 4.39 | 1.23 | 107 | 0.3 | Bart Miadich |
Jaime Schultz | 107.3 | 9.73 | 5.70 | 1.26 | 83 | 0.3 | Phil Stockman |
Adam Wilk | 113.0 | 6.29 | 2.47 | 1.35 | 83 | 0.3 | Dave Gassner |
Hunter Wood | 98.3 | 7.87 | 4.12 | 1.19 | 83 | 0.2 | Oswaldo Peraza |
Jaye Chapman | 44.7 | 9.06 | 3.02 | 1.21 | 103 | 0.2 | Nate Field |
Diego Moreno | 58.3 | 7.87 | 3.24 | 1.08 | 95 | 0.2 | Dan Gakeler |
Andrew Kittredge | 77.7 | 7.76 | 3.13 | 1.16 | 92 | 0.2 | Aaron Looper |
Dana Eveland | 55.3 | 7.65 | 3.42 | 0.98 | 93 | 0.1 | C.J. Nitkowski |
Kevin Gadea | 27.7 | 9.42 | 3.25 | 0.97 | 101 | 0.1 | Mark Worrell |
Erasmo Ramirez | 86.0 | 5.44 | 2.62 | 1.15 | 97 | 0.1 | Rawly Eastwick |
Justin Marks | 103.7 | 7.03 | 4.17 | 1.22 | 81 | 0.1 | Eddie Oropesa |
Taylor Guerrieri | 112.7 | 5.51 | 3.27 | 1.28 | 80 | 0.1 | Zach McClellan |
Kevin Jepsen | 56.3 | 8.15 | 3.68 | 1.12 | 95 | 0.0 | Jim Czajkowski |
Jonny Venters | 10.3 | 6.99 | 4.37 | 0.87 | 91 | 0.0 | Mike Barlow |
Eddie Gamboa | 91.3 | 7.49 | 5.62 | 1.08 | 80 | 0.0 | Bob Turley |
Andrew Bellatti | 48.3 | 8.39 | 3.54 | 1.30 | 88 | 0.0 | Mike Sullivan |
Dylan Floro | 72.7 | 6.07 | 1.98 | 1.11 | 94 | -0.1 | Randy Graham |
Burch Smith | 41.7 | 7.55 | 3.24 | 1.51 | 76 | -0.1 | Garland Kiser |
Grayson Garvin | 39.7 | 6.12 | 3.17 | 1.36 | 76 | -0.1 | Danny Borrell |
Ryan Garton | 67.0 | 7.79 | 3.76 | 1.07 | 92 | -0.1 | Sean Green |
Kyle Bird | 64.7 | 7.37 | 3.06 | 1.11 | 92 | -0.1 | Dave Leiper |
Casey Coleman | 65.7 | 6.85 | 4.11 | 0.96 | 87 | -0.1 | Jake Robbins |
Enny Romero | 57.3 | 8.95 | 4.40 | 1.10 | 90 | -0.2 | Peter Bauer |
Neil Wagner | 40.0 | 7.88 | 4.50 | 1.13 | 88 | -0.2 | Jim Dedrick |
Greg Harris | 125.3 | 7.25 | 4.67 | 1.29 | 77 | -0.2 | Steve Trachsel |
Ryne Stanek | 87.0 | 7.34 | 4.66 | 1.34 | 76 | -0.3 | Jason Baker |
Christopher Kirsch | 125.0 | 5.69 | 4.03 | 1.30 | 75 | -0.4 | Kris Detmers |
Parker Markel | 66.3 | 6.24 | 4.07 | 1.09 | 83 | -0.5 | Scott Munter |
Brad Schreiber | 61.0 | 7.08 | 3.98 | 1.33 | 81 | -0.6 | Matt Smith |
Chris Pike | 122.3 | 4.49 | 3.24 | 1.40 | 71 | -1.0 | James Kirk |
Jose Alvarado | 65.0 | 9.00 | 9.14 | 1.11 | 70 | -1.3 | Tim Adkins |
***
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Seriously, a Tony Saunders comp on Snell? Still too soon.