This Isn’t the Time to Trade Zach Britton
No offense to Welington Castillo, but the hottest topic in Orioles land right now is whether the team should trade Zach Britton. Clubs, unsurprisingly, have shown interest in a possible deal. Scour the web and you’ll find polemics both for and against one. I’m here to argue the latter case.
The Case For Trading Britton
The case for trading Britton isn’t hard to make. He’ll make $11.4 million next year, as projected by MLB Trade Rumors. That’s a lot of scratch for an ostensibly mid-market club to pay someone to pitch 70 innings.
His trade could fill holes on the team’s roster. The market for relief pitching is crazypants right now; it has been ever since the Royals won the World Series with a thin rotation fronting a superlative bullpen. Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen each signed for $80-plus million. Chapman himself, with half a season of control remaining, was traded last year for several big-name prospects. Andrew Miller was also traded last year for a similar haul. Heck, Brett Cecil signed for $30 million this offseason.
Britton surely would garner major-league talent in a trade. In the midst of this red-hot reliever market, he had his finest season yet, placing fourth in the Cy Young balloting. It was his third straight year of dominance and the nation took notice. He also has two years of team control remaining. Oh, and he’s left-handed.
The Orioles have roster spots that a trade could fill. They’re weakest in the outfield, particularly at the corners. Hyun Soo Kim proved he can handle left field when the team is facing a right-hander, but the Orioles have no quality right-handed bat to platoon him with. Meanwhile, right field remains a flirtation with Mark Trumbo; besides him, no serious candidates exist. The team will also need a backup center fielder more and more as Adam Jones‘ body continues to wear down. He’s spent more and more time on the DL.
If Britton leaves, quality relief options remain. Darren O’Day and Brad Brach are on the roster. They can close out games just as effectively as Britton can. So what’s the harm in Dan Duquette doing a little window shopping?
The Case Against Trading Britton
The statements above are true. But they matter much less than the statements I’m about to make. The Orioles should, in no uncertain terms, hang on to Zach Britton through at least the middle of 2018. Here’s why.
The Orioles are at a high point on the marginal win curve, perhaps the highest point there is. They’ve proven they can contend, but they aren’t so dominant they can afford to get weaker. As Jeff Sullivan noted recently, the team’s path to contention is narrow.
And it will only get narrower. After 2017, Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and utilityman Ryan Flaherty are free agents. And after 2018, the wheels come off: Manny Machado is a free agent. So is Adam Jones. So are Brach, Yovani Gallardo, J.J. Hardy, Wade Miley, and Britton himself. I can hardly believe it as I type these names out, but the guys Orioles fans know and love aren’t around much longer. Most of these guys are above-average players; nearly all are good.
The team knows their window is short. It’s why they paid a premium for Chris Davis, signed O’Day, and extended Hardy. It’s why they forfeited draft picks to sign Gallardo, Jimenez, and Nelson Cruz. And it’s why they’ve traded their last three competitive-balance picks: one to Atlanta, one to Houston, and one to the Dodgers.
Because the team is in win-now mode, the risk of handing meaningful games to less-talented pitchers outweighs the reward of saving Britton’s salary. Brach or O’Day could save a lot of games. They’re very good. Mychal Givens could save a game or two, assuming he’s facing all righties. But Britton is about as close as you can get to a sure thing in the ninth inning. The team has too far to fall, and the likelihood that they could climb back up again after 2018 is slim, given all the pending free agents.
A narrow path to contention means small fluctuations in high-leverage performance can sink the team easily. Britton has two advantages over an outfielder he’d fetch in trade: Buck can deploy him according to leverage (AL Wild Card Game aside), and Britton’s shown he can dominate in any context. An outfielder doesn’t provide the same flexibility. Buck can’t control when a batter belts a walk-off home run or when a fielder makes a game-saving grab.
Finally, Britton’s value is not at its highest point. The market for reliever trades reaches its peak around the trade deadline, when teams have wins in the bank and are tempted to push for, or solidify a hold on, a playoff spot. Chapman and Miller and wouldn’t have returned the players they did if the Yankees had traded them in December. Brian Cashman intelligently waited until the trade deadline to ship these two off.
Dan Duquette should absolutely trade Zach Britton… if the team is out of contention at the 2018 trade deadline. At that point, Brach, Britton, and Machado should all go on the block. These guys are so talented that even three months of their services should return multiple prospects each. O’Day should also go on the block at this point, and if there are any takers, perhaps Hardy and Jones as well.
But don’t trade Britton now. Doing so needlessly risks the 2017 and 2018 seasons, undercutting moves Duquette has made since 2014.
Ryan enjoys characterizing that elusive line between luck and skill in baseball. For more, subscribe to his articles and follow him on Twitter.
Brittons value has never been higher,would owner Angelos ever deal with the NATS,for Robles,and SP.
Agree with nearly every word of this article. The O’s are in a two year window. No need or point to dismantling now.
If I was an O’s fan I would want them to start selling now because of the two year window. I don’t think they’re good enough to win a World Series so bring some young talent into the organization.
I’m a die-hard Orioles fan, but I can’t help but think that the O’s path to contention at this point isn’t just “narrow,” but nearly non-existent.
Their core position players, except for Manny and Schoop, are all on the wrong side of the aging curve. Jones is declining. Davis is declining. Hardy is declining. Wieters is gone and his replacement isn’t significantly above replacement-level, and is probably declining.
The rotation isn’t very good, and is unlikely to be all that much better. Bundy might be the real deal, but he has yet to pitch more than half a season and he /really/ dropped off down the stretch. Gausman is probably never going to be much better than a solid #3 – the command simply is not there. Tillman is what he is. Jimenez is a confusing and not-very-good enigma. Gallardo is garbage.
The O’s made the playoffs by a *very* narrow margin last year, boosted by a career year from Mark Trumbo and a basically perfect performance from the back end of the bullpen. To contend next year, they’ll need to replicate both of those – probably plus a little bit more, because they’ve gotten a bit worse. That’s simply not very likely. I’ve maintained that the O’s have been a good team for the past few years – and I believe that from the 2012 ASB through 2014 they really were – but last year really was some “stars aligning” silliness in terms of their luck. I think 2015 is probably more representative of the team’s actual ability level than 2016, all told.
Unfortunately, while the current O’s front office seems to be very good at optimizing with odds and ends around the core they have, they’re very bad at maintaining that core. They haven’t drafted well, the Davis contract is going to be an unmitigated disaster in a couple years (Ryan Howard, anyone?), and the farm is pretty barren. Things are not looking up.
That said, trading Britton before the trade deadline is dumb, for reasons you mentioned. But I’m not certain that they’ll need to wait until 2018 to have reason to do it. The team needs a major rebuild, the sooner the better.
“If Britton leaves, quality relief options remain. Darren O’Day and Brad Brach are on the roster. They can close out games just as effectively as Britton can.”
Followed by “Because the team is in win-now mode, the risk of handing meaningful games to less-talented pitchers outweighs the reward of saving Britton’s salary. Brach or O’Day could save a lot of games. They’re very good. Mychal Givens could save a game or two, assuming he’s facing all righties. But Britton is about as close as you can get to a sure thing in the ninth inning.”
How do you have a job, and can I get some of whatever your editor is smoking?
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Agree with the conclusion. But while Britton’s value may yet go up, no position is more volatile than relief ace. The most recent examples:
— If Wade Davis were traded before last year, I think he’d bring back more than Jorge Soler.
— A year ago, Trevor Rosenthal went 48-3 in save tries; last year he couldn’t find the plate, and his future role is uncertain.
— Two years ago, Jonathan Papelbon was still quite valuable; now he’s unemployed.
— Two years ago, Greg Holland was a stud; now he’s unemployed coming off surgery.
— The Nats traded Drew Storen a year late.
There’s no guarantee Britton has *any* trade value by mid-2018.
If Wade Davis was traded a year earlier, he may have returned Jorge Soler. Instead they waited, Davis dropped in value, and they traded him for Soler. 🙂
This doesn’t make sense to me. I agree the O’s in are win now mode. But, if they have other good RP options, and significant holes elsewhere, why not trade Britton to fill those holes?
Britton can be traded for MLB and MBL ready assets. He doesn’t need to be traded for prospects who are years away.
The Royals got Jorge Soler for Wade Davis. For the much more reliable Britton maybe the O’s could have gotten Soler and a pitcher like Montgomery.
Wade Davis 2014-2016: 182.2 IP, 1.18/1.86/2.76
Zach Britton 2014-2016: 209 IP, 1.38/2.40/2.25
Britton had a better 2016 and Davis had 2 DL stints. Britton is the more valuable asset this year. But he’s not “much more reliable”.
Not a great representation considering Davis’ recent injuries combined with his declining peripherals. Britton is the much safer, more reliable option.
Wade Davis declining peripherals:
2015 FIP: 2.29, K-BB% 23.1%, SwStr%: 11.6%, Z-Contact%: 82.5%, GB/FB: 0.94
2016 FIP: 2.29, k-BB% 17.6%, SwStr%: 13.1%, Z-Contact%: 79.4%, GB/FB: 1.47
Not really declining much. K-BB% fell but whiff rate increased.
No, the cubs would not have included montgomery. Soler and players like szczur, la stella, maybe Montero are really the only guys they would deal off the m.l. roster. That said, they have other near ml ready talent they might have included, guys like candelario, zagunis, pierce Johnson(not all of them obviously). I would imagine candelario being the best fit, installing him at third and machado at ss with hardy becoming a. Super utility player/defensive replacement.
I’m sorry, but you’re out of your mind if you don’t think the Cubs would trade Montgomery in a deal to get Britton
Considering he is their number 5 starter, comes with 5 additional years of control, isn’t even arb eligible and they already have a deep bullpen, I’m almost certain of it. Remember that was on top of Soler. Last point is it’s not like the cubs only have a 2 year window. They have a 5 year window with their current core. The guy with 5 years of control that will throw more innings than Britton lines up more with their window. Especially when talking about an off-season deal.
So you’re saying the Cubs wouldn’t trade soler and Montgomery straight up for Britton? You must not know very much about baseball
Is this a vacuum or real life? Because in real life with the current pitching market they create a bigger hole in the rotation than what they have in the pen. Soler was traded from surplus, hence why the Davis trade was good. If soler would have been their starting left fielder it’s bad. Currently they have no need for a starting pitcher other than long term needs. Trading montgomery means creating a current and long term needing forcing the necessity for another trade.
But no, I still wouldn’t do that trade. 2/25 of Britton isn’t worth it to me in an off-season deal. To many regular season variables, if Britton gets hurt then what? More prospect capital for another reliever and paying the deadline premium. At this point britton is being overrated, excellent reliever, but he has overperformed in every sense, babip, strand rate, homer rate(last year). Like I said, Soler and prospects is the price i would pay, I’m not giving up a pitcher with a chance to throw 750 innings in a position of short and long term need for a guy Who will throw 140 As a marginal upgrade(over davis for instance).
Oh geez, you really don’t know what you’re talking about. Britton has so much more value than a Montgomery/soler package. If the Cubs didn’t want to keep Britton they would still accept that deal in a heartbeat and then immediately flip Britton for a much much better package. And you’re seriously using stats like BABIP for a guy like Britton who has proven to be able to induce weak contact? I wouldn’t be shocked at all if his true talent was a BABIP around .250 instead of the normal .300
Britton BABIP by year
2014: .215
2015: .308
2016: .230
But you’re saying 2016 was the outlier? Hmm….
I did not say 2016 was an outlier, I said he overperformed. You also said this when you said his true talent level is .250 when he posted a .230. Babip was only 1/3 of the stats I mentioned, you took offense to it for some reason, but you actually agree with me.
To your first response, you do realize this is real life, not a video game, not a vacuum. You can’t just say oh sure you can flip him for more.
First which mlb teams are willing to trade a starter(current mlb starting pitcher) for a reliever? Now eliminate non contending teams, now eliminate teams with budget constraints, now eliminate teams with already deep bullpens. Who ya left with?
so much more value according to what? Last year’s deadline deals caused teams to pay a huge premium, should the cubs go with 4 starters half the year to maximize the return value from Britton? Not to mention, those trades were centered around prospects. You are talking about 2 players in the majors who have proven to be able to produce at the ml level that still have upside. For instance soler is the same age as Aaron judge, with almost the exact same toolset, except a higher floor.
Ivan nova is the top starting pitcher left in the free agent market and will get 40-50 mil, I would much rather pay uehara and I don’t know brad Ziegler the same money and keep my starting pitcher.
What in the world am I reading….
I said .250 is a ballpark estimate. .230 is close to .250. Stop nitpicking.
So they only way for the Cubs to find a new 5th starter is by trading Britton? They aren’t allowed to make other trades or any free agent signings? I mean geez… I’m starting to think you’re trolling.
Which MLB teams would give more for Britton than a soler/Montgomery package? I would say about 29 other teams would beat that offer.
The Cubs gave up a Gleyber Torres (who is MUCH more valuable than soler and Montgomery combined) for 1/2 a year of chapman. But 2 years of Britton would get less than that? Give me a break.
And yes you can just flip him for more, when the offer is so bad that 29 other teams would beat it.
The Cubs got Montgomery for Dan Vogelbach just a few months ago. Yet somehow Montgomery’s trade value is so high that now he’s not worth giving up with Soler for Britton?
I think you lack understanding of value. A 55 fv in mlb, is more valuable than a 60 fv in a ball. Proximity to majors really has value in itself.
I knew you were using those trades as an idea of value and that’s just not how it is. That’s a deadline premium because teams know they are likely to be a playoff team and can more easily identify needs at that point, and take on less salary.
There are some teams that still value upside more than probability(looking at you white sox) but you are talking about two teams planning on competing, they will value mlb pieces much higher.
.230 is not really close to .250 when the whole league basically deviates by .100
Wait what? Of course a 55 fv in the MLB is more valuable than a 60 fv in a ball everyone knows that. But what in the world does that have to do with Montgomery?
You’re just stating things everyone knows. I know about the deadline premium but you’re greatly exaggerating it. 2 years of Britton gets much more than 1/2 year of chapman, no matter when either trade takes place.
Of course the Cubs would prefer to trade prospects than MLB talent no one is arguing that. But to say that they wouldn’t do a Montgomery/soler for Britton swap is just foolish.
The cubs got montgomery for vogelbach and the guy just traded for Danny Valencia this very off-season.
The simple answer to all this is you are dramatically undervaluing montgomery and as well as undervaluing the deadline premium.
So back to reality, 2 and a half years of Miller got a guy similar to Soler in frazier, Justus sheffield who you could say is similar to montgomery and two minor league relievers even with the deadline premium. Let’s also remember Miller is cheaper.
Shouldn’t an extra half year plus better contract plus deadline premium yield a way bigger deal?
It’s roughly even value, like I said though, opening a hole while not even really filling one just flat out does not make sense and makes it negative value for the cubs. Especially considering they lack long term rotation options and have quite a few future relievers in the upper minors. My assumption is that your response will again be just trade for one, because like in a video game you can just pick a player and get 29 offers immediately.
Is there a reason you’re trolling so much? Never seen someone stick to their guns over something this dumb before. Did you seriously just say that Clint Frazier(a top 15 prospect in all of baseball) is a player similar to soler? Lol pass the pipe!!! Frazier has so much more value than soler it’s not even comparable. The package Miller got was wayyyyyy more valuable than soler/Montgomery.
Nobody thinks this is a video game, stop talking to me like I’m a child. I know that GMs don’t make a trade and then immediately flip them. But in this hypothetical scenario, where the trade is so lopsided, the entire industry would be calling the Cubs offering much more than what they just gave up.
It’s hard to undervalue a guy who has never put up good numbers as a starting pitcher. Montgomery might have a lot of team control, but that just means the Cubs will have multiple years of a mediocre starter. I think you just saw what he did in the bullpen last and assumed he would do the same as a starter.
3.60 xfip as a starter last year. (using xfip due to sample). Changed his pitch mix increasing curveball usage. I think you are assuming scouting the stat line is the best way to evaluate. I’m not saying he’s a front end guy. But a number 4 starter with 5 years of control for a team who literally only needs cost controlled starting pitching does not make sense to trade.
I mean let’s think about their current sp depth. After arrietta, lester, Hendricks there is 38 year old lackey, montgomery, Rob z, Aaron brooks and Ryan Williams. They just don’t have the depth to be trading from that.
I would give my left nut for the Cubs to get Britton for Soler and Montgomery.
We all thank you for your willing sacrifice. But yes, I couldn’t agree more
So he’ll be on the 2018 Cubs August roster is what you are saying.
Agreed 100%. The Orioles are pot committed. That may sounds like a rash thing to do but not when too many teams are already tanking right now and when Machado is still under contract for two more years. The Royals and Giants have shown that non-elite teams can win the World Series. Why not try sneak in a 89 wins and have Britton be an ACLS MVP , under the Andrew Miller model?
Does anyone know how many plate appearences JJ Hardy needs to achieve for his 2018 option to vest? Unless forced to, I’d be shocked to see the Orioles want to pick that up. Likewise with Yovani Gallardo’s 2018 option.
My guess would be that both of them depart after this season which gives the Orioles significantly more financial flexibility for the next few seasons than I think is generally appreciated. Hardy + Gallardo + Jimenez + Tillman coming off the books frees up an enormous amount of money for 2018 (though obviously creates plenty of holes to fill also).