2018 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Last year at this time, corner type Rhys Hoskins (641 PA, 3.6 zWAR) was assessed a 45 FV (the future-value grade of a platoon or utility type) in Eric Longenhagen’s audit of the organization and was omitted entirely from the top-10 lists published by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Following impressive performances at both Triple-A and in the majors, however, he now receives the top WAR projection among position players in the organization.

Hoskins is the only hitter forecast to record an above-average batting line (125 wRC+) for Philadelphia in 2018. That said, ZiPS calls for Maikel Franco (615 PA, 1.9 zWAR), Freddy Galvis (621, 2.0), Cesar Hernandez (579, 1.7), and Odubel Herrera (612, 2.9) all to produce a sufficient combination of offensive and defensive value to record wins at a roughly average rate.

The club’s greatest weakness appears to be at catcher, where Andrew Knapp (380, 0.7) and Cameron Rupp (340, 0.8) both fail to clear the one-win threshold. Prospect Jorge Alfaro (448, 0.1) was productive in 100-plus plate appearances and has no options remaining, both of which make him a candidate for the 25-man roster. His total lack of plate discipline, however — he’s projected for walk and strikeout rates of 3.8% and 34.2%, respectively — puts a lot of pressure on the other aspects of his game.

Pitchers
Philadelphia’s pitching staff ranked 15th as a group this past season with 12.7 WAR, over a third of that produced by Aaron Nola (178.2 IP, 4.3 zWAR) himself despite an injury that allowed him to record just six starts over the first two months of the season. Szymborski’s computer projects Nola to basically repeat his 2017 campaign. The triumvirate of Jerad Eickhoff (149.0, 1.8), Nick Pivetta (155.0, 1.7), and Vince Velasquez (134.1, 1.9), meanwhile, all profile as roughly league-average starters.

As for the bullpen, it’s become considerably deeper in just the past week with the addition of Tommy Hunter (54.0 IP, 85 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) and Pat Neshek (50.1, 78, 1.0). Hector Neris (72.0, 92, 0.9) is expected to close games, but the projections indicate he’s, like, the fifth-best option for high-leverage innings. Hunter, Neshek, Luis Garcia (65.1, 86, 1.0), and Edubray Ramos (72.1, 83, 1.1) are all forecast to produce better adjusted ERA marks.

Bench/Prospects
While Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez appear at shortstop and second base, respectively, in the depth-chart image below, it’s possible that neither will occupy any place on the roster by Opening Day, both having been mentioned in trade talks this offseason. The logic behind a move involving either player would be clear: J.P. Crawford (628 PA, 2.6 zWAR) and Scott Kingery (582, 2.0) both earn WAR projections superior to the players they’d be replacing. Dylan Cozens (543, 0.5) and Andrew Pullin (533, 0.8) appear to represent the top alternatives in the outfield should Aaron Altherr (468, 1.4) or Nick Williams (613, 1.0) fail to meet their already modest expectations.

Right-hander Tom Eshelman (133.1 IP, 1.3 zWAR) earns the top projection among pitchers omitted from the depth-chart image below. He recorded a walk rate of just 3.1% in 150.0 innings across Double- and Triple-A this past season and is forecast to record the lowest major-league walk rate (4.5%) among Phillies pitchers after newcomer Pat Neshek (3.9%).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phillies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies by Carson Cistulli!

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